Matt
Wildfire would normally be pretty low on the list of worries where this is happening.
Whelp.... the man(Mike Nelson) who wrote "The World's Littlest Book On Climate" and who has spent a lifetime studying climate and meteorology is currently helping forecast an unprecedented winter grass fire on the front range as tens of thousands evacuate their homes and attempt to flee to safety.
But surely this isn't climate related. But if it is, surely it's just normal climate changes. But if it isn't, surely it doesn't have anything to do with man's impact. But if it does, surely it will be a good thing overall "cause warmer is better". But if it isn't better, surely......
I don't know where you guys are gonna move the goal posts after that last step...? That's where we are. We are in between "nothing to do with man's impact" and " warmer will be better".
I just don't know what to say. Crops can wither, water will run dry, fires keep ravaging, ever increasing natural disaster after disaster, and the only thing that changes is how the goal posts get moved to justify doing nothing.(But lemme guess... "nOW's nOt THe tIMe")
*sigh*
(fact... Since june 1st 2021, Phoenix has received more rain than the denver area has)
Hate to break this to you, Soccermom, but the Front Range used to burn like this on a regular basis before people moved in and built subdivisions. Massive grass fires. Forest fires, too. Droughts, floods, you name it. So yeah, you could say the destruction caused by this fire is due to "man's impact". If humans hadn't built that power line to feed the subdivisions, THERE WOULD BE NO FIRE. Read that again carefully.
At my house about 50 miles NW of that fire, we have 18" of snow on the ground, another 10" coming tomorrow. And 14" of ice on our lakes. (Ice fishing is great!) Sometimes its windy, sometimes not. Just another normal winter. I guess Climate Change hasn't found us yet.
Shaking my effing head....
no, it's not that we never get high winds... more like we never are this dry for this long into this late in the year on an ever increasing basis.
you are almost past the "not mans fault" step. And just about onto the "wamer is gonna be better" step.
"we never are this dry for this long into this late in the year on an ever increasing basis". More anecdotal evidence from you. Colorado has always been drought-prone. That's why there were no trees on the Front Range beyond the mountains, except along riverways, until settlers moved here and brought them to plant. You can't look at a tiny sliver of time at the top of another identical historical warming cycle and proclaim it to be "never".
You alarmists tell us to not confuse weather with climate, unless it suits your alarmist purpose. Then the "weather" is due to AGW.
Aha! CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
Do yourself a favor, just read the the book. It's like 28 pages, that way you'll sound even dumber when you try to refute reality
Don't get me wrong. I don't want to see or breathe in smog. I don't want garbage floating in our oceans. I don't want chemicals in our water, etc cetera. But, to think that people today can definitively say we are causing the earth to get hotter, or colder, is hard to believe.
I read the little book. More alarmist garbage with cherry-picked conclusions from people who profit from climate change alarmism.
So answer the question. What is the ideal earth temperature?
I would love to continue chatting, but I'm taking my wife deer hunting on an awesome private spot in Nebraska, covered with No Trespassing signs, where I got permission by asking the owner personally. Like we do it here in the West.
That stuff is basically science 101. from there it's kinda easy to see how more CO2 could lead to a warmer planet and kinda tough to say CO2 has no impact on climate.
@jaq no... if we had snow on the ground or more than an inch of rain since june than we wouldn't be having this conversation. If every year wasn't warmer and drier than the last we wouldn't be having this conversation. And i highly doubt you read the book....
Of the "10 FACTS about CO2" which ones are false? list them. No, I'm not talking about their hypothesis based on those 10 facts. I'm talking about the 10 facts of CO2 themselves... which ones(that have been replicated thousands of times) were you able to disprove?
Better yet, email the man himself Mike Nelson @ denver 7 news. Tell him how he's wrong on his 10 facts about CO2 or better yet... trespass on his property like you like to do and talk to him in person
*crickets*
If there was no power line to blow down then there would have been no fire…
3 weeks ago, lack of snow… Climate change, now awesome snow levels in the mountains rains, climate change. Dry and warm, climate change, other areas cool and wet, climate change…
Answer the question what is the ideal temperature for the Earth?
Answer the question, climate expert: What is the ideal earth temperature and CO2 saturation?
If Mike Nelson had a ranch with good hunting that was in my unit, you bet your ass I would drive up to his house, knock on his door, look him in the eye like a man, and ask permission. Something you are scared to do. You accuse me of trespassing because I door-knock to ask permission? You are a seriously messed up little lady. Good night, sweetheart. I need to get to bed to take my sweetheart hunting on a sweet new spot you can only dream of hunting!
Soccer, Co2 fact, it’s good for you.
It’s what triggers you to breath. Look it up in a lot of thick books.
The climate is changing, it has been for millions of years. On this same planet we have ice sheets and molten magma under a thin crust.
Man will most likely destroy civilization. But it won’t be the climate. I’d be more focused on Cyber threats.
The problem is your climate leaders haven’t figured out how to sell cyber warfare as a way for them to make billions.
Any words for the families affected by this, or are you still changing your tampon?
Matt
Heartbreaking.
I have some very dear friends that are right in the thick of this right now. Not sure how they are faring and pray that their home is not destroyed.
On a positive note, the local news hasnt said ANYTHING about the omnicron virus!
I lived all around Colorado in the 90's .... Arvada, Broomfield and visited Erie and others often enough ..... I remember thinking man, this is a tinderbox at times and if it ever catches with a wind, look out all the communities built along the edges
bad deal for everyone, I hate when people lose their homes and possessions and all that comes with disasters like this :(
@Altitude... nice goal post moving, that's got to be the most irrelevant fact I've ever seen.
you are past the "warmer is better step". And evidently onto "More CO2 is needed to breathe". Never would have guessed that one!
For reference since the 1800's CO2 levels have increased over 50%. So while you are right that we need CO2 to "breathe". Levels of CO2 dating back to the dawn of man were sufficient in triggering us to breathe. Also CO2 levels remained almost rock steady for 10,000 years of man's existence until the industrial revolution.
So while your fact is true, it's a pretty ridiculous way to justify("desire" in your case) ever increasing CO2 levels.
Funny how the AGW religious zealots keep lying, and the MSM goes right along with the lies. Here are the graphs from the Vostok Ice Cores. Point out where the CO2 levels were ever "rock steady".
Jaquomo's Link
Prayers for the folks who lost everything in this tragedy. I can't imagine. You trying to politicize it and make it about AGW is sick and disgusting. Anyone who does that should be ashamed, but we know there is no shame for zealots.
Gotta go. About to drive right past some No Trespassing signs so my wife can shoot a deer. You should try it sometime!
soccern23ny's Link
also yours shows CO2 levels going from 200-280ppm over 100,000 years. A 40% increase over 100,000 years. So .0008PPM every year increase
vs
The rest of the graph. Which goes from about 280ppm to 420ppm in just over 100 years. Again about a 50% increase in just 100 years. So 1.4ppm increase every year. For perspective a modern year increase in CO2 is equivalent to 1,750 years of CO2 build up on your graph.
But sure, CO2 not an issue and not from man
There are about 50 links with many corresponding analyses. Google Vostok Ice Cores and take your pick. What they show is that every 100,000 years there is an almost identical temperature and CO2 signature, and if you dig into the data you will find that the CO2 increase FOLLOWS the warming. Your little snapshot means nothing, and is as misleading as the discredited Mann-Gore "hockey stick" graphs.
No one is saying man isnt responsible for an increase in CO2. The debate is in how much vs. natural variability (per historical records) and in the real impact, per the NASA link I posted. A hell of a lot of people will benefit from a couple degrees warmer earth.
Now will you PLEASE answer the simple question you continue to avoid - What is the optimum temperature for the earth? Until you answer that, you are nothing more than an MSM parrot. Squawk.
Jaq’s graph shows CO2 and temperature has been increasing and decreasing at a fairly consistent rate for 400,000 years but go ahead and cherry pick your own data that feeds your argument.
Yeah, we’ve had two similar, but not quite as destructive, fires that destroyed homes and businesses close to Reno over the past 10 years. The first was in November of 2012 and was caused when a car hit a power line during a weather front with 50 to 70 MPH winds. The second was a day after a govt idiot decided a controlled burn was a good idea the day before a front, with forecasted winds in excess of 80 MPH, would hit the burn area. But yeah, let’s go with climate change as the cause of both of those too. How many of the California fires have been the responsibility of PG&E?
We just had over 200” of snow in the Sierras for December. A new record and the most since the 70’s. A similar set of storms trapped the Donner Party near Truckee CA, but more than a month earlier, in November of 1846. A month earlier than our recent record snowfall for December…. I don’t think they were blaming climate change as they were forced to eat human flesh….
they say it pretty well. TLDR... it's the exponentially increasing rate of change that's the issue.
"No one is saying man isnt responsible for an increase in CO2. "
No, people really are actually. And it's tough to point out a 500 year period on a backwards graph with 50,000 year increments. Hence why I provide one in which you can.
Also just saw your other comment. ROFL, k you read the book what's the title for the 4th fact?, and 1500 words per minutes sure guy. You've literally stated how you've trespassed on other threads lol. You even have a post asking for money to help fight a trespass basically lol. What a joke. I don't believe the vast majority of what you have to say. You don't have credibility just because you blow past a no trespassing sign to knock on a man's door face to face. You fail to realize how that simple action actually takes away your credibility and just makes you an A$$ with balls. You will always be an @jaq
How in the hell do you know if it is not supposed to be warmer than it is now? You/our little snapshot of recorded data means NOTHING!
Quit using a tragic event to bolster your political shit.
"You/our little snapshot of recorded data means NOTHING!"
I know. That's what makes all this so tragic and sad. Facts don't matter, as is evident by much of the past few years.
Literally you: "Your facts, and recorded data that are irrefutable mean nothing to the agenda that've I've chosen to swallow! How dare you!"
I stand by the point that climate change is probably number 199 of 250 on a ranking list of risk factors that will doom mankind.
Cyber attacks of infrastructure is hundreds of times more likely and immediately impactful.
But again your messiahs can’t get rich from that doomsday prophecy.
Wind at 80 to 120 for a couple weeks drys grass out real bad. 2 weeks ago it picked up my 9000lb camper and flipped it like a kite.
My power line was bending like a noodle in that wind.
This statement is absurd! The climate has change very quickly in the past and reeked havoc and it will do so in the future. Just look at the 5 major mass extinctions in the past.
Definitely need to switch to electric cars in the US. THAT WILL SOLVE IT.
What “climate” was it that caused they're extinction?
What “climate” allowed Indigenous peoples and whitetail deer to live there after.
Was that last “climate” change dangerous or undesirable?
Disposable consumerism is the biggest threat to the lives of us and our children. And THAT”S something everybody can do something about.
And yes, I read 1500 words a minute. When I was a competitive speed reader my best in competition was 2200 wpm with 90% comprehension.
Darn those Anazazi’s and their evil cars, coal plants, jet planes and A/C homes filling the atmosphere with “man-made” CO2…..what a shame.
So you're saying we're on the verge of the 6th, and final one as far as humans are concerned, and so should just sit back and enjoy the show?
Back to the original topic. I just got word that Marv Clyncke (who many on here know) came through OK - barely. Thankfully, he with help from his family, stopped the fire at their fence line, I was told.
I live about 30 miles north of there with a clear view, and watched the fire blow up late yesterday morning. Been trying to find out about many I know in that area.
soccern23ny's Link
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CO
"D3: "Pasture conditions worsen City landscapes are dying Large fires develop Rafting, fishing, hunting, skiing are reduced; fish kills occur Grasshopper and insect infestation are noted Reservoirs are extremely low; mandatory water restrictions are implemented; water temperature increases"
@Jaq... you LITERALLY described how you drove past a no trespassing sign, knocked on the owners door and asked to hunt his land. Now you are just lying. Here's a picture of you lying. https://imgur.com/a/ACQbxDF
It's private property, it says no trespassing, you saw the sign, drove past the sign, onto another's property. That is trespassing. The bigger the, the more obvious the trespass the more proud you actually are, it's sickening.
This is why I have no respect for you, nor do I believe half of what you say. But sure, do some more mental gymnastics on why this isn't trespassing. Your the type to read my "no soliciting" sticker on my house and then proceed to try to sell me something anyway.
Hoping most of all no deaths from this horrible fire and so far none have been reported.
Good luck to your wife sir, Nebraska has some dandy whitetails !
If you did move here, please go back nick nick soccermom
ryanrc's Link
My brother and his wife have friends who were out of town, and the fire line missed their house by considerably less than one block. I just can’t believe that it’s possible for wildfires to blast through a residential zone like that…
We had to move out of the only home that my boys have ever known after Sandy, and the rental we moved into after that was essentially destroyed by Ida just a few months ago, so my heart really goes out to those who lost even more than we have had to deal with…
These days we’re just feeling blessed that we didn’t end up buying the rental!
I think it’s absolutely miraculous that it sounds like no one was injured or killed in the whole thing… Hats off to all of the rescue folks and all of the people who had the good sense to listen when they were warned off and had the sense to get the heck out of there….
My brother and his wife have friends who were out of town, and the fire line missed their house by considerably less than one block. I just can’t believe that it’s possible for wildfires to blast through a residential zone like that…
We had to move out of the only home that my boys have ever known after Sandy, and the rental we moved into after that was essentially destroyed by Ida just a few months ago, so my heart really goes out to those who lost even more than we have had to deal with…
These days we’re just feeling blessed that we didn’t end up buying the rental!
I think it’s absolutely miraculous that it sounds like no one was injured or killed in the whole thing… Hats off to all of the rescue folks and all of the people who had the good sense to listen when they were warned off and had the sense to get the heck out of there….
I grew up Front Range. Saw a LOT of Big Wind, but very rarely at this scale. Though there was that time a wind-lifted 4X8 sheet of ply came through the wall just a few inches above the head of my buddy’s sister. Good thing she was a gymnast.
And yeah, many years of Fire Suppression + one good, hot spark never ends well, ANYWHERE.
Kind of a Perfect Storm.
Here’s my take on CO2: It is an extensively PROVEN FACT that CO2-enriched air holds more heat and for longer than a “control” sample… NOT enriched. Call it what you like. Unchallenged science.
And it’s undeniable that all of the carbon that we’ve dug or pumped out of the ground and burned off as fuel (or simply allowed to escape as gas) has made it out into the atmosphere at a rate many thousands or tens of thousands - and actually probably millions - of times faster than it got stored away.
Ask any farmer: hotter air sucks more moisture out of plants and soil. It also sucks more water out of bodies of water like the ocean. That water ends up in the atmosphere, and sooner or later it falls back to earth. That means floods where it comes down and drought where it goes up. Not that hard. There may be a natural cycle at work as well, but if we pesky humans aren’t entirely responsible, we’re doubtless making it faster/worse. Because Math.
JMO, it’s a shame that so much money is going into fighting regulations intended to address the Objective Reality of the situation instead of looking into ways to create jobs and turn a profit by making our air and water cleaner, preserving our top-soil, and figuring out some Humane means of slowing down population growth so that we can feed all of the people and leave room enough for some semblance of Nature to persist.
Just a guess, but 10,000 acre monoclonal stands of roundup-resistant corn for ethanol production is not a sustainable solution. Fracking on public hunting land/national forest doesn’t appeal much, either, and a Pit Mine dug to extract Lithium is as big an environmental disaster as one dug for Coal. Watching people lose their homes doesn’t do anything for me, because Been There, Done That.
I’ll just say this. Just because you, personally, haven’t suffered yet does not mean that nobody else has, and it doesn’t mean that Human Activity had NOTHING to do with it. The fact that it snowed 50 miles north of the fire means Jack. Hell, you get into the mountains and the difference between Drought & Flood can be measured in YARDS.
Just seems to me that the smart move it to kwitcherbelkyakin and figure out how to turn a profit. Instead of whining about what it’ll cost, figure out how much money there is to be made . I don’t know about you guys, but if I could choose between seeing my tax dollars go into R&D subsidies to create good, new jobs vs helping people rebuild after getting wiped out…. I’d take A, every single time.
Does that make me a Libtard???
I do feel that man is having an effect on the climate. How can we not? But leave it to a rabid liberal democratic atheist to use peoples tragedy to drum up support. Where: on a HUNTING website. Don’t run for office in Texas, well maybe in Austin.
We can't control climate change and can't control moisture or human behavior in the surrounding NF. But we sure can manage the environment around us to try to mitigate risk and adapt. That it doesn't happen on a big scale on NF land is government obsolescence, as Vilsack admitted last spring.
I would rather deal with both with a strong economy and keeping my freedoms. Neither are worth giving up as part of how we go forward.
My sister lost her house in the Boulder County fires. They live in Superior and back up to the Open Space.
Her 2 kitties got left in the house. Sad, sad deal. It'll be hard to explain that to my 3 year old niece.
A fireman came and banged on the door. He likely saved their lives. My sister got out of the house without any shoes. They left one car in the garage and piled into their Suburban with their 3 kids (3 year old and twin 9 month old boys) and 2 labs. That’s how fast it happened. The house 2 doors down was already in flames.
Their entire Sagamore home development is gone, 380 homes. They are staying with friends and trying to determine their next steps. My niece is constantly misbehaving and crying because she doesn’t want to be at their friend’s house and wants to go home.
They’d appreciate your prayers, as will their neighbors.
In addition to praying for these people, which I have seen do good for people in concrete as well as spiritual ways, I would like to do something to contribute to their recovery. Bit I don’t like to just give to Salvation Army, ect and have my funds diluted. If you know of a “go fund me” page started for this family, let us know. Or just a general fund set up thru area banks for families.
kscowboy's Link
we are trashing this planet - fact
there is a lot that isn't fact floating around too ..... but bottom line is this IMO ...... three things WILL happen in the next 20-30 years
A- temps are still warming ... we need trillions more dollars to do better B- temps have stabilized ... we need trillions more dollars to do better C -temps have went down but not enough ... we need trillions more dollars to do better
It will never, ever, EVER be enough now .... I 100% promise ya'll that, it will always be more and more money needed and control to fight a phantom, unattainable (and unnamed) goal ( like Jaquomo said, what is the temperature we're shooting for ?? )
Yup, should have just followed status quo and commented the obligatory "thoughts and prayers"
Would have been beautiful if it was one thousand continuous comments all saying "thoughts and prayers". I'm only a jackass to you because I have dissenting views that I'm able to back up with logic and fact. An "always" derailing rofl. Again, only because I have a different view point do you think that. What happened is a tragedy, I have friends who have lost everything from these fires. Lucky myself merely for where my house was located and the direction of the wind. Could have easily been a different story
Yeah, you should have.
The cause of the fire was originally thought to be downed power lines, but apparently that wasn’t it. Still undetermined based on the last reporting I saw this morning.
Thanks to those who contributed to help these poor folks out.
Matt
Soccer, I am not a global alarmist but I think we prob have some common ground. I don’t think we are being good stewards of this planet and it will eventually come back to bite us. Not in my lifetime but eventually. But the places you interject things and the way you come across just makes me want to take the other side. But I guess that is my problem and not yours.
We just had the legislature pass no bail required laws so poor criminals can get out of jail. We let a boatload of convicted folks out of jail due to covid. The governor commutes a 110 year sentence for a guy who killed 4, down to ten.. Criminals are let go, while victims get the middle finger in our state.
Horrific results, irreplaceable loss whether insured or not. I can't imagine trying to find replacement housing in this market, the challenges are just begining for so many
Colorado historically burned periodically all throughout history (like SoCal). Our beautiful aspens originate from fires. Prairie grasslands burned so the soil could regenerate. The only solution is mitigation, by establishing buffers around development. This big unmanaged grassland was unmitigated right up to the edge of town. Fires are not a matter of "if", but "when".
My wife is in charge of the mitigation efforts where we live, where the USFS has allowed fuel to build up all around us. We get grants ot fund it, yet some idiots fight every effort to thin the perimeter, harassing and monkey-wrenching the contractors, demanding that no trees be cut for any reason. As one nutjob said recently, "If it burns, it burns.."
Wonder how the poor folks in Louisville and Superior feel about that philosophy? Like one person said, "IWe know this happens in the mountains, just never thought it would happen here". Maybe time to take prevention a little more seriously
Matt
I wondered if a fire break along that open space perimeter would have slowed it down. Not in those winds I fear.
Matt
https://forums.bowsite.com/TF/bgforums/thread.cfm?threadid=494935&messages=4&forum=36 Whelp.... the man(Mike Nelson) who wrote "The World's Littlest Book On Climate" and who has spent a lifetime studying climate and meteorology is currently helping forecast an unprecedented winter grass fire on the front range as tens of thousands evacuate their homes and attempt to flee to safety.
But surely this isn't climate related. But if it is, surely it's just normal climate changes. But if it isn't, surely it doesn't have anything to do with man's impact. But if it does, surely it will be a good thing overall "cause warmer is better". But if it isn't better, surely......
I don't know where you guys are gonna move the goal posts after that last step...? That's where we are. We are in between "nothing to do with man's impact" and " warmer will be better".
I just don't know what to say. Crops can wither, water will run dry, fires keep ravaging, ever increasing natural disaster after disaster, and the only thing that changes is how the goal posts get moved to justify doing nothing.(But lemme guess... "nOW's nOt THe tIMe")
*sigh*
(fact... Since june 1st 2021, Phoenix has received more rain than the denver area has)
Quinn @work's Link
It is insane how hot that fire burned. There is nothing flammable left.
My thoughts and prayers will continue for your friends, and all the others affected by this tragedy.
Matt
My house burned: lost everything, except wife, dogs and a few changes of clothes (and car). Pretty surreal. Haven't been able to get the gun safe open; will on Thursday. Really been focused on finding a place to live (while new house is built) and furnishing it.
BUT...planning on archery elk hunting this fall so I have much to do this spring and summer!
Only positive thing in the last 10 days is...Goooooo Dawgs!
I'm so sorry for you and your wife. Like John said, let me know if there's anything I can do to help.
Matt
Then, once the local officials finish coordinating with the state and feds, we will build a new house. Gonna take a bit of time (about 24-30 months) but I must've been having to much fun in retirement!
Thanks again for your offers! All the best, Hank
It's a great place to store important papers and firearms to grab as you go out the door!
I had a Liberty safe; mid level protection because I lived within 1/2 mile of the fire station...the response would be quick to put out a house fire, right? Unfortunately, the fire response was overwhelmed and they were more involved with getting people out of harms way.
I had a shotgun for every occasion: skeet, sporting clays, pheasant hunting, duck hunting and goose hunting...plus a number of heirloom guns. I think that moving forward I'll be a one shotgun guy!
Matt
Sorry for every thing you and the city are going through.
This truly is an interesting experience that I wouldn't wish on anybody!
For years every time I would need a screw, bolt, or a specific tool for a task I would have to go buy it again.
It becomes a part-time job remembering and listing every screw, nut, bolt, tool equipment for the insurance company
it’s a long arduous, stressful process. I ended up haggling and settling on a dollar amount that I was happy with I can’t imagine doing that for my house. it was bad enough for a shop.
Yup; just starting this process...working through the structure now. The contents will be a whole different animal!
Fortunately, the last thing that I did before leaving was to walk through the entire house (and basement) and make a video with my phone...so far, that has been invaluable!!!
