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Follow the link to an excellent video from The Hunting Public youtube channel, where they dive into the topic of researching (declining) wild turkey populations, relevant to mostly southern or SE states, with Dr. Mike Chamberlain.

I found this video pretty informative as I investigate the 'whys' to questions of my own personal observations as a turkey hunter of 15 years, to the input from these experts. This video seems to have only scratched the surface on the population decline topic, as they delved more into the research methodology and findings on a broad level, but it still left me wondering what I can do to help. What can I do to help beyond intentionally not filling both tags in certain areas, or at all, which I've been doing for a couple years now.

Besides habitat loss and under-utilization/ maintenance by us, I'd be curious to understand the correlation, if any, between predation and what I assume to be declining trapping participation. If my memory serves, we had a dry spring last year in upstate NY, but it doesn't seem like there's any more turkeys this year compared to previous. Maybe weather isn't as big a driving factor for poult survival as I believe? Do we have too many racoons? Fishers?

If anyone has any input on this topic, or knows of any good studies to read up on please share! I want to see thriving populations for generations to come as I'm sure many of you do also...

John MC, you apparently have never been to or know anything about upstate NY. Our wildlife populations and habitat are very diverse. And wildlife populations in northern NY are higher than when I was a kid. I have whitetail, black bear, bobcat, fisher, otter, beaver , Turkey, grouse, hare, Marten , mink, muskrat, waterfowl, etc. out my back door. So please don’t compare or mistake upstate NY with that cesspool called NYC.

I'm sure in some areas, like John mentions in CO, the population is on the rise. It seems to me from my own observations, numbers took a noticeable downturn starting about 10 years ago. Or maybe the reality is that they were always trending downward from some point in time when they peaked.

Interesting statement Bou... so trapping is/was but a blip on the radar with regard to all other factors of turkey population success. I wonder if its even possible to validate any theories on that topic with hard data, or if they're generally speculative answers. Gotta be similar to determining population levels... nobody can say for sure how many are out there, but almost all the folks (talking to Dr. Chamberlain at least) are saying the hunting has gotten "worse", and hen to poult ratio has declined according to actual data.

JohnMac you may not notice this because I don’t believe your state was included in this study for obvious reasons. In fact I believe Dr Chamberlain was speaking primarily about the SE in this study even though the downward trend holds true for most NE states as well.

Squash you are correct, there are plenty of turkeys in upstate NY but the difference in statewide numbers from pre 2003 - 2018 or so was definitely pointing downward. They have started to bounce back nicely the last few years.

The one frustrating thing about that interview was that Aaron from THP never really asked him or pushed him as to what seems to be the biggest reason for this. The Dr listed a few possibilities but after doing this study for 5 yrs now, I would have loved to know what the data story is pointing to most.

Otherwise it was a great interview!

Open season on all nest predators.

Birds of prey definitely have an effect as well, mostly on poults I would think. Monday I watched a hen hit the ground off a roost, and just happened that a bald eagle left his perch and flew right over her. She about turned inside out. But once she saw it was flying past, she calmed down and began to eat. If there'd been poults though, I imagine it would have been different. And we now have year round bald eagles where I'm at, where they used to be mainly winter visitors, following the ducks down and back.

And the red-tailed hawks and owls are numerous as well

Growing up it was a rare sight to see a hawk or an owl. Now it’s an everyday or every hour occurrence. We have so many Red Tailed hawks now, it’s just unbelievable. Also, just in the last couple of years I’ve spotted more and more Bald Eagle pairs. These are all federally protected predators.

There is just sooo much pressure being exerted on the Wild Turkey as a species, it a wonder there is any huntable population in some areas. We used to joke that the turkey poults are like the “twinkies” of the forest; every thing wants to eat them! I think that is showing itself to be true

The raccoons are way overpopulated in our area. There is no doubt they have a considerable effect on the population. Combine that with other predators and they get hammered.

Plenty of guys are trapping yotes from what I see which is a good thing.

Here on the eastern portion of Long Island, we are way over populated with them. There is a very short season in the fall...... for some reason.

This same biologist mentioned above had an excellent podcast with Meateater last year in which he felt that great- horned owls were the biggest culprit. Interesting and made perfect sense.

Around 2006 I recall counting ~80 turkeys one early spring morning in just one field on our small 165acre farm. 10 mature toms. Turkeys were like “rats” back then. Since that year the decline was rapid and noticeable. Eventually head counts of flocks went down to 30-40, then 10-20 birds and so on, even coming right out of winter with them all grouped up. Prior to and during the season I will often drive around the neighboring farms within a few mile loop of ours, an area I’d always see tons of turkeys. I made that loop this past weekend and found 1 tom on about 6 different farms or big land owners. I understand many may not have been in fields at that time, but I also understand that it’s a snap shot into what’s happening… they just aren’t around like they used to be. Between my dad, brother and me we have only taken 3 adult gobblers since 2016 off our farm. It's safe to say we aren't hunting them at an unreasonable level...

I know at least for my family farm and bordering properties, there has been a steady decline in ideal habitat in a number of spots. Places that were once relatively open have been choked out with briars and brush. Even some of our grazing pasture land is choked out - which we plan to reclaim this year. 10 years ago it was a mixture of mostly orchard grass, clover, some crab apple trees, and some patches of goldenrod and tall native grasses. I’d regularly see turkeys utilizing the pasture for feeding, strutting, nesting etc. … Now the heifers don’t even go into it some of those places because they’re so thick and nasty. For me personally I think a little habitat maintenance on our property will be a good place to start.

Some people have mentioned diseases… I recall hearing about mites of some sort years back? It wouldn’t surprise me to find out if that was a big culprit. The decline came so rapidly that I’d have a hard time believing predators were the biggest cause. Trapping around us died out long before all this. We have steadily had milder winters in that area (Oswego county) and springs have been hit or miss with precipitation amounts. I recall 2020 May/ June and possibly 2019 as well were on the dry side… which left me hopeful. But still no rebound?

I would agree with eliminating fall turkey season. Back when they were plentiful I shot one from the stand, but haven’t since. I’m not sure why NY even has a fall season. Can’t speak for other states there, but from what I’m reading they shouldn’t even exist… I too wish furbearers were more loosely regulated. Not sure why coyotes need a season. Same with coons. With very little trapping management it would seem logical to open up the hunting opportunity time frame for some of those species.

Reload- thanks for the podcast tip.

I drew an Iowa deer tag in 2019 and hunted in zone 6. Right away I was amazed to see entire family groups of coons walking around in broad daylight. I’d never seen anything like that in NY. They were everywhere. The landowners said the turkeys seem to be dying out around there as well, but were quick to blame the bobcats along with coons. Thankfully we don’t have too many bobcats in NY… at least where I hunt.

I'm guessing that raptors may have a net benefit to turkeys as they mostly eat rodents and snakes which do take a toll on ground nesting birds like turkeys. But it's a guess with nothing to back it up (a.k.a BS).

You want to know about animal populations talk to the farmers in the area. I know two farm owners that usually have a lot of birds on their property and both haven't seen a Turkey all winter.

Also... one other factor we deal with is the hogs. They are extremely nomadic and are constantly searching for food. I’m sure they’re a part of the factor as well.

I do know this, this particular SWA as well as the State of Nebraska advertises the turkey hunting as the BEST and allow up to 3 toms to be taken. (three separate licenses) and having a two week archery only season prior to the shogun season, this advertising as not fallen on deaf ears as now I see hunters from 4-5 different states as this year. Yea, even us Coloradoans. From when I started hunting there 19 years ago when I hardly saw anyone, less others from other states, the hunting pressure has increased 10 fold and I am sure the turkey harvest has also risen.

Predators? As I hunt this SWA both for deer and turkeys, I see this area two times per years, and seen lots of racoons, a few skunks, a few bobcats, and lots of coyotes, birds of prey. I have no idea how they might figure into the decline as I am sure, there were as many of these predators as in the past when the turkey population was very much higher.

Many of these turkey flocks do not stay on the SWA year around but migrate in from the surrounding cattle/farming operations in the Spring and then disperse to their normal breeding/roost sites, lay eggs, hatch and rear young, and in the fall, those that survived, return to the adjacent cattle operations where food in more available in the winter. This is where I see the decline, the migrating birds into the area and not filling their "normal" niches as in the past. Where I use to see 5-6 roost areas, now only 2-3. Is it predators, is it disease, is it over hunting, lack of habitat, drought, hunting season too early, too liberal bag limit, change of agriculture practices, are causing the decline?

Maybe 12-19 years ago, there were just too many turkeys for the area and now the numbers are meeting what the habitat/food source, can sustain. I have also noticed that the pheasant population in down from past numbers. I am seeing less hens and less Jakes turkeys as well as less mature toms but with that knowledge, and with my knowledge of the area, I do well, but hear complaints from other hunts, new and old, "it just ain't like it use to be". And I say, " yep, how true".

It would sure help if there was more of a USA fur market other than the craft market, but I don’t see it ever coming back in the states. Too, many mis-informed people.

As far as turkeys - who knows what is directly correlated to their decline. My 2 cents is that it may be one big cause and then a bunch of smaller causes all rolled together. Predators - ground and air, disease, wet springs flooding out nests, etc... I sure do miss the good old days of hearing over a dozen different birds and debating which one we were going after. Our opener this year - we heard 1 bird gobbling and that was it.

But, today turkey numbers are down and are estimated at between 6 and 6.2 million birds. Why has the overall turkey count dropped 15 percent? These recent declines may not be long-term, but they do warrant close monitoring.

Here are four facts that researchers find may be the cause for decline:

1. Production, not predation, drives turkey populations With high population densities, a significant number of hens won’t access quality nesting habitat and may not successful hatch or raise a brood 2. Carrying capacity becomes an issue, productivity is declining because hens are nesting in suboptimal habitat 3. Vegetation measurements contribute to the success or failure of nesting sites… little vegetation means little chance at poult survival 4. It seems that in some areas birds have reached carrying capacity and have declined as the capacity of the habitat to support a certain number of birds has declined. If the habitat conditions decline across multiple counties and states, then birds have no choice but to decline with it.

— Ken Perrotte

Up until the late 70’s, quail populations flourished as it was “pre” coyote invasion in the South and before the widespread onslaught of timber clear cutting. Quail flourished in the left over field hedge rows, family farming practices , and open farm/pasture land. In my part of the country; clear cuts started to really become the method of mainstream timber harvest by the mid 80’s and both quail and turkey flourished in the late 80’s. The clear cuts were awesome for both species for the first couple of years; but became unsuitable habitat as it eventually thickened. Unfortunately, the rumors of coyote sightings eventually proved to be true and the coyotes in the south became "super dogs" (as described by some wildlife officials) out weighing their western counterparts by 10 or 15 pounds. The clear cuts were great ambush grounds for the coyote.

By the mid 90’s, the great populations of quail weren’t just down; but for all practical purposes extinct. People sold their dogs and took up other interest. In about 5 short years the populations of quail disappeared and today I haven’t seen one in over a decade.

Turkey populations followed suit, but turkeys run rather than bunch together, hide, and hold when threatened (as quail do) so the decline has been much slower .....though without abatement.

All ground nesters have been impacted. The whipporwill's song that I listened to from my opened windows at dusk as a child are now gone. Ditto on the meadow larks as well.

In some ways the world is changing. The lightning bugs I caught as a child are almost gone; it’s rare to see a honey or bumble bee anymore. Deer have been on a decline for over 10 years now.

Really only the coyote, wild hogs, and other predators are flourishing. I’m really hoping that the turkey doesn’t duplicate the history of the bobwhite quail here.

Just talked with our forester at MDC today. He also said predation was a huge problem, and that coons will wipe out a nest and the hen will go back to that same nest to try again and the coons will know to check it out.

LPDV can cause tumors to form in the spleen and liver of infected young turkeys, and was first discovered in the United States in 2009 by a team of researchers at the University of Georgia. Realizing the dangers LPDV posed to New York’s turkey population, The Cornell Wildlife Health Lab (CWHL) partnered with the NYSDEC to begin a wildlife disease surveillance.

NYSDEC biologist Joe Okoniewski, who specializes in examining wildlife for signs of diseases and toxins, devised an ingenious plan for finding out if New York turkeys were infected. Every year hunters submit the feet from their birds so that the state can collect information on harvest numbers, sex and age. He realized that the small amount of bone marrow remaining in these turkey legs could be tested for the virus. The CWHL partnered with the NYSDEC to collect turkey legs and shipped them to the University of Georgia for a rapid survey.

The group quickly realized that the virus was wide spread in New York, with every county testing positive. In addition, tests from other states concluded the virus had spread to 17 states. It was puzzling though, since newly introduced diseases don’t typically spread so far so fast, and few birds were showing up sick with tumors. In fact, most of the infected birds appeared to be perfectly healthy. (Molecular Surveillance for Lymphoproliferative Disease Virus in Wild Turkeys {Meleagris gallopavo} from the Eastern United States).

Next the group teamed with Katrina Alger and Chris Whipps at the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, to study the ecology and possible origins of the virus. Alger examined over 2,500 wild turkey legs from healthy hunter submitted birds and found 81 percent of the adult female birds were infected with LPDV, and more than half of all wild turkeys tested in New York carried the virus. By comparing the similarities between the virus samples that she recovered and tracing bird movements from the old repopulation project, Alger also determined that it was likely humans moved the virus around undetected decades ago. (RISK FACTORS FOR AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LYMPHOPROLIFERATIVE DISEASE VIRUS (LPDV) IN WILD TURKEYS (MELEAGRIS GALLOPAVO) IN NEW YORK STATE, USA).

Based on this cooperative approach, it doesn’t seem that LPDV is in fact “new,” highly lethal, or solely responsible for the recent declines in the turkey population. However, similar viruses in domestic chickens and turkeys can suppress the immune system and make birds vulnerable to other infections.

By Jennifer Peaslee

When I went to a seminar some years ago conducted by the turkey manager he said they can survive -70 F if they can get to food. Explains why they have spread from Caledonia to Thief River Falls in MN. Still ,we only have a 1 bird season.