Bowsite.com

"Hunting esp if you’re going out of state is a disposable income endeavor." _Exactly._

Back when I traveled more I drove a 12 mpg full-size gas pig, and drove 400 miles 4-5 weekends during hunting season on VT. Would regularly burn 10 gallons every Sunday morning to go fishing. Cost of gas never slowed me down. But you can bet the truck was second-hand.

(And yeah, I get that used trucks are priced high these days. Looking to replace my '07 with 197000 miles on it...)

Watched Biden's female Chucky sneer and mock reporters for being upset "they weren't going to get their treadmill in time for Christmas" or some such. This is the glaring disconnect, this is the snide lie. A self centered myopic person might see it like that, but while you will certainty survive a bit of minor disappointment in your life..... the person selling treadmills loses his business, his home, maybe his family. Good job. Lets Go Brandon.

But they know this. It's baseline evil. They. Don't. Care. Literally if it hurts the country it furthers their plans. People will not accept what they want and have planned if things are going great. Only if the country is burning down around you will you accept what they push. "You will own nothing, you will have nothing. And you will like it." Word for word.... surprisingly not a direct Orwell quote....

Just like a Democrat to scoff at people who can be finally priced out of something. There IS a final straw on costs where people just have to say: can’t do it. It’s not the $200, it’s just the final straw. They aren’t all guys who drive fancy new trucks.

Being able to enjoy an out of state hunt is certainly from discretionary funds. But normal guys used to be able to swing it. But between high tag costs, and gas and other cost of living increases, ect, many of those guys have been priced out of that great experience. But hey, I can still afford it, so who cares about those guys.

And just in case you wonder: “Is Tx one of those guys who can’t afford to any more? NOPE! I am fixing to retire with more than ample discretionary funds to hunt and fish anytime I want to. But I have friends that have come to that final straw.

That is because of demand by former bow and arrow hunters, not so much because of inflation taxes.

The idea that gas 'should' cost $2 a gallon is mistaken. The market sets the price and right now there are a ton of factors involved. The idea that it's because of one man is silly.

Seems to me that partisans on both sides like to use the President as a punching bag for the state of the economy, but it ain't that simple. (And yeah, I still despise Trump, but that's not an *economic* position.)

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-are-gas-prices-so-high-right-now-3-reasons-2021-10

The inflationary effects will gain strength exponentially as we go forward.

The Feds so far behind now i dont think they could taper QE or buy back enough bonds to effect it. This was done purposely. So, whats the fix? Raise rates by a few points and drive folks out off Wall St? Do that and Dems cant say “look at the markets” for mid terms.

Either way the folks in middle America are really going to feel it. No different now, at this point in time than putting a 15% tax on everything, your pay, durable goods, large end items….Everything. Could have been avoided if we had solid folks running Fed and Treasury but we have ideologues. Both Yellen and Powell are one world appeasers. None of their actions will affect these elite wealthy Democrats. They can effect great change buy effecting radical monetary policy and they are.

But I suppose wealthy elite Republicans will be massively inconvenienced? Will Trump have to order from the McDonalds dollar menu? LMAO!!!

Back to the hunting piece, I imagine that more people will be substituting game meat for other proteins to save some dollars which is not a bad thing from a hunter recruitment and participation perspective as well.

But either way, that doesn’t change the fact that you can’t relate to those who have been priced out.

Matt

When world oil prices dropped to less than zero a barrel what do you think would occur?

The President monetary is directly reflective of his policy issues. He picks treasury Fed chair people.

Low oil prices spur productivity in all markets. Just a fact. High oil prices make me plenty of money but i dont like it. I have low volume oil pumping investment that dont produce much profit until price spikes. I still think it hurts the US productivity potential.

So, with analogies like this you would prefer a 6$/gal because you will do well? Well that’s an original thought. No different from the elites who dont care a wit about massive inflation. As they can afford it.

This is what occurs when you have montary policy from 2008-2016 whereby the Fed pumped an average of 70 billion dollars a month of QE into our domestic economy.

The Fed has been saying for a year now they would raise rates and have not done it. They will not as the the only thing Dems have is a strong market and they wont risk that for 2022 elections. We will all feel the pain of this fact.

With markets heavily over valued they can not risk a pull out in these markets. Then, then third leg would be pulled out from the stool. These are basic facts and understanding of economic principals.

While you cheer for you guys the elites are are crushing it and the Avg guy is getting crushed by it. This when the old adage “ guys vote their wallet” is an apt statement.

BEG you vote your wallet because extreme high price of Texas Intermediate while 85% of the nation struggles to buy bacon at $10/lb. We’ll see how that works for you come November next year. I find your reasoning well of center. There could be only four guys here on BS that could be so short sighted!

Look at earnings. Look at the labor market. Look at wages. Look at GDP. With what is happening on both the supply side and the demand side, it’s no surprise we are seeing the price movements that we are. While it means we are shelling out more, the forces that are pushing prices higher are generally positive. Will they be perceived as positive from a political perspective? Probably not, and so be it. The economy is going to do its thing largely independent of who is in power.

Let me get this straight. You've bragged about making a killing on the stock markets during the pandemic. You've claimed your investments have allowed you to buy 2 new farms, and set your grand children up for life, financially. Now, you claim you "don't like it" when your oil investments do well, and you sympathize with the "avg guy" who is getting "crushed" by the same things you've capitalized on? You're a hypocrite, liar, and fraud, IMO.

Matt

We had a great Fed Chair for 30yrs. He lead us out of the dark days of Jimmy. His great leadership based on great Administration’s policy lead us thru ending cold war and out of massive inflation. If i recall it beat the Arabs trying to hijack us on oil.

If we had that today it would end in same result. We dont have that leadership and the bench is poorly suited.

Shaping monetary policy is not easy but getting it right over your biased points of turning and shaping it in a alternate direction at the top is like fighting with an arm cut off.

As you dont dispute my assessment i will assume you agree with the facts i have put forth. As to who hets what from whom in at the ground level in US oil production i will accept your statements.

I do know a little of this, my good hunt buddy has been a worldwide start up Engineer for Exxon for 40yrs.

Regardless, the purchasing power of the dollar has decreased...

I worked in dirt my entire life. You are very clearly a herd animal Matthew. What ive done as a dirt soljah to get where i am today is the American success story.

Attacking me for your herd mentality will not make up for your dusty life of follow in drag.

Covid really enabled me to extend my life situation. Retied at 44 , privateered with a rifle for a few years after that. Then, the greatest opportunity in 100yrs was presented to anyone who could rub a few brain cels together. Took my chance and it worked out. Took some liquidity and under Joe bought some real estate, sold some, paid my taxes and moved on.

Dont go thru the rest of your life bitter. Gravel is cheap! Just brought in 6ea 20 ton loads brought in and spead on my new place. Need pics?

Anything to add constructively to these Monetary points prescribed here to forth?

This reminds me a bit of the economic recovery that happened when Obama was in office. To this day democrats credit him for it, but it was going to happen regardless of who was in office. If anything, the recovery likely would have been faster if we had a more business-friendly president in office.

Don't forget that hunting licenses might go up in price as well. Wildlife agencies aren't immune from inflation. They will need more $ as well.

The amount of inflation and how long it is lasting keeps catching the experts off gaurd.

I also keep hearing plenty of economist and financial experts talking about how many of the items used to measure inflation have been removed as metrics over the decades to calculate the year over year inflation. The number of 6.8 percent released Friday was very very high. I have heard several people claim if it was calculated the same way as it was 40,50,60 years ago, it would have been 15 percent.

Either way something feels pretty off when we are told inflation is under control and not going to be an issue, and it will be very short term and work itself out rapidly. Then the facts point to that being false, and now the narrative of high inflation is all of a sudden a positive indicator is being spread around all over the place.

Lots of things in this economy smell fishy to me.

I have dialed back any out of state hunting trips last year, this year, and the foreseeable future. I can have quite a bit of fun elk hunting Oregon, and if they ever reopen where I like to black tail deer hunt after the huge fires of 2020 in the cascades.

I have a 17 month old daughter, and the funds that used to go to extra hunting trips are being used for family vacations. My wife her and I relay enjoy traveling and doing hiking trips.

So not reducing spending, just shifting it.

My income varies monthly. I want to take advantage of the good times and pay off debt. Just need 3-5 years and to pay off all personal debt including personal home and investment property.

Personally I feel like this economy is like a stool with 3 shaky legs. It seems like one of them will break loose soon. If I’m wrong I’ll have paid all my debt off and then have the freedom to do anything. If I’m right the down turn won’t hurt me too much, and I’ll probably be able to capitalize on investments dip.

After I’m debt free I’ll resume out of state extra hunting trips.

Bowhunt, I personally do not think that inflation is a positive indicator for the economy and have not seen where anyone credible has claimed that. It is certainly a byproduct of a strengthening economy with a still-impaired supply chain, but not a positive economic indicator per se.

Just food for thought, but paying off cheap debt in an inflationary period may not be a good financial decision. If you are only paying 3% on money and the dollar is essentially devaluing faster than that due to the rate of inflation, it may make sense to take today dollars and invest them in equities (inflation hedge of sorts) and then use future dollars that are worth less to repay that debt. There is a qualitative value to becoming debt-free which I appreciate, but in terms of building long-terms wealth I think this a uniquely bad time to employ that strategy.

I have had a couple times where my financial situation crumbled before my eyes basically over night, not due to anything in my control. Once when I was 20 and purchased my first home. Within weeks the company I worked for basically went broke, and I had to take a huge pay cut. This created financial situation that was extremely hard to make it through for around 4 years. In 2006 I started using the idea of cheap money you spoke of to develop some different real estate. Next thing you know the whole financial system melted down and real estate prices plummeted. These two very hard experiences have made me fairly cautious about getting over leveraged. It does feel stupid paying extra on a loans at 2.6 percent interest, but after lots of thought and number crunching it is a good idea for me.

I think about my finances a lot, and have gone back and forth on my plan. Everyone’s situation has tons of unique factors, and in my scenario paying off debt is good for me. I wasn’t meaning to imply that was the only option or that I can predict what will happen. I was just explaining how the inflation and broader economy was affecting my personal hunting plans

There are LOTS of things a president can do, if nothing else just stop being openly hostile to the sector... but they need to be done BEFORE things are already where they are. Foundational proactive things, not flipping a switch where there is none. This administration acts on nothing until it's too late and in full blown crisis/disaster mode. First chapter in their playbook is "Taking advantage of crisis to push your agenda" Chapter Two is "Creating Crisis". Funny we were a net EXPORTER of oil under Trump. Now we are on our knees to OPEC. Where did I see this before???

This administration came out of the gate as openly IN FAVOR of rising fuel and energy prices. Openly stated it was necessary so to "facilitate the move to electric cars and renewable energy" as Obama said.... "energy prices must NECESSARILY skyrocket". Necessarily because nothing else is competitive on a level field, it's not even close. So you artificially prop one up and drag the other down to level it. Now that people are pizzed and the polls turn the rivers red.... they claim it's not their fault, nothing we can do but beg OPEC and pump out our strategic reserves. Huh. Guess they could be right about one thing... there is one born every minute.

Inflation plus oil prices are compound multipliers, their prices literally go hand in hand as energy touches everything. Dumping piles of money (40% of all dollars "printed" in just the last year? wow) at the issue is just throwing gas on the fire... so to speak. As banks and mega corps have had unfettered access to what is essentially "free" money and used it to buy up real estate? I believe these are fixed rate loans.... they would profit greatly from inflation. As the common man pays dearly for it.

A side note as to what is in store, among things that government very much has control of..... CA just essentially made generators illegal in 2024. Just two years from now. As well as gas chainsaws, weedeaters, etc. A state that can't produce enough electricity right now..... rolling blackouts, etc. a grid pretty much maxed out.... making the unit you need to use in their self created emergencies (as well as independence off grid) illegal to buy. And touting the system they can't keep up with now as the answer. All the while China builds our batteries and solar panels...... naw.... no connection there.... but it is amazing how cheaply you can buy American politicians. I think it costs em more to buy NBA players....

As the Critical Drinker says.... "naaa, it'll be fine...."

Nonsense. We still import far more oil from Canada than we do from OPEC, 52% versus 11% respectively in 2020. And there are on-going expansions of existing lines from Canada that will provide more capacity than the cancelled pipeline would have provided.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

Furthermore, the first time the US was a net exporter of oil and petroleum products since 2011 was in 2020. 2021 marks only the second year the US has been a net exporter in the first half of the year. I'm not sure how you are concluding we are at the mercy of OPEC.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596

But, hey, if spouting misinformation is your thing, fire away. You do it quite eloquently.

Matt

If yer a Woke Democrat , the first thing after dumping coal will be to dump Bitumen Oil Sand Oil. You can be sure they will get to it as that stuff has Beau Coup carbon in it.

Then, you have a Canada that will be running for the US border too! Dem's will jump on that train as they’re already Socialists. Dems will take them as Oil Sand refugees and court them as potential new voter base.

We been piping C Stan oil for decades. Goes right to Illinois and Texas.

Not sure what your speaking too? XL?

XL with be finished or a new one to BC will be built for the Chinese. XL would be finished throgh Dakota’s much faster however.

Oooooooooh the irony…LMAO.

Pipeline would greatly reduce oil shipping costs. That in turn reduces prices. Greenies don't want pipeline even if studies show it greatly reduces the chance of spills.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/bidens-pause-oil-big-concern-mexico-75436359

Likely not. It would improve producers margins, not lower costs. Producers and shippers do not decide what price they get to sell their oil for. That’s done on the open market.

This year was stellar for me and was going to expand my equipment inventory but things are more expensive fast (bobcats and Trimble instruments) and availability is months away. I have a hard time buying anything of big money because of the lessons learned in ‘07-‘08. Now I travel the Midwest doing custom jobs with a machine and can’t get a grip on any truth to the low unemployment rate. I see crews from 4 guys to 30 guys daily and they all could use more help. Some guys are there to put time in until layoff (I’m blown away by some who comment on the past winter off and how they didn’t want to come back from all the extra unemployment benefits) my blood pressure boils!!!! Especially when they wish it would come back for this unemployment season. I’ve never been laid off or drawn unemployment ever. I get it’s there for some people but way too many take advantage of it! I see guys on construction crews one day and then 2 weeks later I go to another crew and there’s a guy from 2 weeks ago, he told me it was better pay by a $1/hr. There’s big lack of loyalty nowadays as well. The best one I saw this summer was a crew of an owner, foreman and 4 (3 new hires) finishers and laborers on a Monday morning. Same company called 2 weeks later and go there and see 2 new guys. 2 of the previous 3 quit last week and the 3rd didn’t show up that day. People are always complaining that they need to pay their bills and even tell owners what they need to pay their bills like it’s there problem. Stupid floating in the air every where but the media doesn’t talk openly about that, or obesity, or heart disease. Just Covid and how great things are going. Every where you go there’s places hiring, every where, in all industries here. It wasn’t so 2 years ago so where did all the people go? Restaurant and bars are open Thursday afternoon until Saturday night because of staff shortages. Shelves are empty because of item shortage but also some signs up saying they don’t have adequate help to stock the shelves. Prices are getting insane at way too fast of a pace for me to think that anything going on right now is good. “All good things come to an end “ I hope not but I’m not blind to it like a lot of people are. My 2 cents…hang on to some funds and pay the bills you signed up for but be careful about giving more than the agreed amount and always supply the slush fund for hunting!

Umm, not exactly

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp

You just posted a link to an article that said exactly what I said. Exxon, Chevron, Chesapeake, Enbridge, Williams, and every other upstream and midstream company in the oil sector do not get to decide what price their products sell for. They are commodities, and their price is set by the market, not by them. So to argue the point that lowering the shipping cost of oil would lower the price of oil is likely not true. It *could* improve margins so that these companies make more money (which may or may not have an effect on supply).

While I am sure there are other factors that mitigate the cost differential to bolster your statement, I find it difficult to believe that the basis cost to the system would not be greatly decreased by the use of the XL vs trucking that same amount of crude.

It’s actually a bit more nuanced than that. Pipelines require large up front capital investments whereas rail and trucking do not. Pipelines also lock you into specific markets, whereas rail and trucking do not. Many companies are foregoing the use of pipelines for these reasons. Rail and trucking provide much greater flexibility from a market and contractual perspective with lower up front costs at a trade off of higher operating costs. It’s not as simple as “pipelines would lower cost.” And yes, the funny thing is that rail and trucking - which is what gets substituted for pipelines - comes with a much higher environmental cost as well - something the anti-pipeline people seem to not understand.

Matt

Matt.

Sold it for $25500 with 42000 miles, which was a lot for that rig at the time.

If I would have just parked it in a garage it would probably sell for almost $40,000 in a heartbeat today! :(

Matt

Stuff happens, and yeah we will "survive" if survival means you're still living and breathing. But when that "stuff" is literally CREATED to do this, then it gets personal. Very personal. And when folks finally get mad about what is being done to them.... suddenly the administration steps back trows their hands in the air and "hey hey hey... It's not our fault!" Then lay down a couple TDS cards becasue they are about out of racist cards. Next it's "there's nothing anyone can do". BS. When called on that.... finally threw in "you commoners just don't understand....." and always followed by "it's all for your own good."

Like Capt America said.... "Kinda FEELS personal....."

I guess it's true about your memory being the first to go. Or, is it just partisan denial? See Matt's link.

Matt

“ Note: Current dollars refers to the actual price at a given time. Constant dollars are adjusted for inflation, relative to October 2021. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (prices); Bureau of Labor”

The link clearly shows average gas price was only over $4 per gallon for a very short period at the end of 2008.

The gray line is the average cost of gas across each year.

Another is a shortage of supply causing an increase in price (Econ 101). This isn't nearly as bad because it signals an increase in employment opportunities to increase output. Increased employment is an increase in spending, circulating money in the economic engine.

Umm, yes I read the link correctly. Orion claimed that gas was never over $4 under Bush, when it clearly was. I never put a time frame on it. Matt's link also clearly states that gas was over $5/gal in June of 2008 in today's dollars (adjusted for inflation).

But, hey, don't let facts stop your hand-wringing and doom and gloom attitude.

Matt

No doom and gloom from me

I was just thinking of all the Obama 2008 signs and bumper stickers, but he wasn’t the president until 2009.

You are correct!

Crawling back into my hole now:)

Which stock market are you talking about? The S&P was near all-time highs 3 trading days ago and it has more than doubled since the Covid crash lows. Sounds like you need to find some different mutual funds.

That said, I fully expect a correction in the near future. But then, I've been predicting that for months and they've just continued to climb. I've left a lot of money on the table when I went to about 35% cash last summer. At least I'll have fresh powder to buy the dip if/when it happens.

Matt

You seem to be poorly invested then. Might I suggest a fund that indexes to the Dow, S&P 500, or Russell 2000? They are up 17%, 25%, and 10% respectively YTD as of today. Far outpacing inflation (even with the clawback over the last month).

If you’re worried about a dip over five consecutive days, id suggest looking at other investments or perhaps investing in the market at all isn’t for you.

It was at close on Monday 12/13 to be exact. Like I said, 3 trading days ago. Are you seriously fretting over 2 days of down markets? If so, you should stop paying attention, and go do something fun.

Matt

AND to elaborate to the negative people on here about my investing strategies, there is a reason i am watching it close. I have a property i am closing on in mid January. I agreed to purchase with the funds coming from selling a mutual fund. Now it has dropped quite a few 1000 since last thursday! I am aware of how to invest. This shit is happening at time when i need to sell or not buy the property. You cant always just sit back in your fat chair and watch shit happen.

AND to elaborate to the negative people on here about my investing strategies, there is a reason i am watching it close. I have a property i am closing on in mid January. I agreed to purchase with the funds coming from selling a mutual fund. Now it has dropped quite a few 1000 since last thursday! I am aware of how to invest. This shit is happening at time when i need to sell or not buy the property. You cant always just sit back in your fat chair and watch shit happen.

Your link doesn't support your previous claims of 5 straight days of down markets.

Here's another tip. Trying to "time" the markets to make investment decisions almost never works out well.

I wish you luck with your property purchase.

Matt

Well, looky there, the markets gained back all of the previous 2 days of losses today. Feeling better, KHNC? ;-)

Matt

It doesn't appear that the gas prices in that link are inflation adjusted, so not an apples to apples comparison.

It would have been prudent to have sold the mutual funds concurrently with entering into the land purchase contract if you were reliant on the sale proceeds to close the transaction. As stated above, if your financial strategy can't weather a few down days in the market it would make sense to revisit it.

RT, I disagree. I think the only way the Feds will reign in inflation will be to incrementally raise rates. They'll probably remain relatively low for quite some time, but I think a few small rate hikes in 2022 are inevitable. It will be interesting to see how the markets react. If history repeats, we'll see stock prices drop. Save up some cash. 2022 may be a good year to buy some equities, IMO.

Disclaimer: The above is not intended as financial advice, merely opinions from the author. Always consult your financial advisor about any investing decisions. ;-)

Matt

Guess it's bowsites contribution to the new communism push

Newfi, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but cash is not an "investment" unless you're stockpiling to buy in when the market takes a dip. Otherwise, you're losing money on that paper every day. Meanwhile the index has gained over 23% in the past 12 months. Might want to contact a good fee-only advisor and start fighting the inflation monster with that cash.

As Jaq indicated, cash devalues in an inflationary economy - especially if its inflation is close to the 13.2% annual rate you referenced.

Umm, they are owned by the same guy, and are subject to the same rules and moderation, perhaps? The BS main hunting forum has morphed into the CF, anyway, so why wouldn't you be banned from it, as well? You're like the little misfit kid in grade school who shows up to birthdays parties without an invitation, then cries when the parents make him go home.

Matt

Matt

I sold my MF that day. So i at least gained a little back. Market has been down every day except that one, including today. Looks like i stopped the quick bleed just in time. Im sure it will make a comeback at some point, but my IRA funds are safely invested anyway.