Contributors to this thread:
What do you think the NR odds will be for the random elk draw in WY for special and regular? Anyone notice that Hunters Trailheads random odds are way to generous? 24.5% random odds for special general elk last year. I wish that were true! Never found an error there before.
Also what do you think the minimum points will be to draw a special & regular elk tag, please include decimals. I have the option to apply as a group with several different people and need to decide what works best for everyone.
From Toprut '21 NR Regular Draw Odds: 43% @ 3 points, 9.4% in the random draw '21 NR Special Draw Odds: 24% @ 2 points, 30% in the random draw
Numbers don’t lie. I believe random regular was about 10% below that. As far as this year, 3.9999 in the regular and 3 in the special. I’m curious why you asked about the random if you have options and points?
Mule debating on using them, IF Hunters TH was right (24.5%) I would have not used points. I think I calculated 16.4% special random odds, still not to bad.
I am hoping someone chimes in that follows the point creep and tag numbers who can give me a good prediction for this years odds. I never really followed general units in the past.
Last year’s drawing odds for NR General was 8.96% in the random regular draw while the odds for the special random draw was 16.25%. It took >3PP’s in the regular draw to be guaranteed a license. Those with 3PP’s had a 41.8% chance of drawing. It took >2 PP’s to be guaranteed a license in the special draw and those with 2PP’s had 22.46% drawing odds. Don’t know how much it will change this year but you can bet the farm it’s going to get harder to draw NR general elk with each passing year. As far as license quotas go, those should remain fairly steady.
I have 5, going general as I want out of the point game there. I’m sure a few more in the 4-6 range will dump as well.
Don, you lose your points if you draw in the random.
Steve at Toprut is correct as he gets all the available data.
Special Gen random odds for 2021 were 30.0%
If you pay for odds and they're anything other than 30% for special gen random, you're dealing with someone who doesn't understand the process.
WB, could you please explain. The numbers I have are straight off the Wyo G&F website. What am I missing?
WB me too, my calc was just over 16% 2021 NR special elk random draw, general.
NR never draw the full 16% allocation in the initial draw so they backfill to get to the 7,250. This is done after the demand reports are created so you don't see the license increase on those reports.
from Z's flowchart article, and a good explanation...
The nonresident regular draw:
Next, the regular draw quota is divided 75 percent for preference points and 25 percent for the random draw. Just as in the special draw, the preference point draw is first and then the random draw. Any quota remaining from those draws is used in determining additional general licenses to meet the 7,250 requirement. There’s a chance there could be undersubscribed limited-quota licenses.
At this point Game and Fish calculates the number of licenses remaining from the 7,250 nonresident elk licenses allocated by Commission regulation. This determines the number of additional general licenses needed to be added to the nonresident quota. Special general applicants have the first chance at these licenses and anything remaining is available to regular general applicants.
Thanks for the explanation. So much for simple division. Just one more reason I Thank God I’m a Wyoming resident. My head hurts after reading all that!
Hmmm, I burnt my 9 WY points last year to get a buddy and GEN tags last year.
Had a good hunt so I threw in for Special GEN elk this year. Didn’t realize my odds were that good. I told my wife we’d get that $1300 back not to worry. I hope I lied.
Thanks! I wish I could delete that post so I only I know this:)
For the record WB, I was betting you were right!
they added 302 licenses in 2021