Contributors to this thread:
What do you think the NR odds will be for the random elk draw in WY for special and regular? Anyone notice that Hunters Trailheads random odds are way to generous? 24.5% random odds for special general elk last year. I wish that were true! Never found an error there before.
Also what do you think the minimum points will be to draw a special & regular elk tag, please include decimals. I have the option to apply as a group with several different people and need to decide what works best for everyone.
From Toprut '21 NR Regular Draw Odds: 43% @ 3 points, 9.4% in the random draw '21 NR Special Draw Odds: 24% @ 2 points, 30% in the random draw
Numbers don’t lie. I believe random regular was about 10% below that. As far as this year, 3.9999 in the regular and 3 in the special. I’m curious why you asked about the random if you have options and points?
Mule debating on using them, IF Hunters TH was right (24.5%) I would have not used points. I think I calculated 16.4% special random odds, still not to bad.
I am hoping someone chimes in that follows the point creep and tag numbers who can give me a good prediction for this years odds. I never really followed general units in the past.
Last year’s drawing odds for NR General was 8.96% in the random regular draw while the odds for the special random draw was 16.25%. It took >3PP’s in the regular draw to be guaranteed a license. Those with 3PP’s had a 41.8% chance of drawing. It took >2 PP’s to be guaranteed a license in the special draw and those with 2PP’s had 22.46% drawing odds. Don’t know how much it will change this year but you can bet the farm it’s going to get harder to draw NR general elk with each passing year. As far as license quotas go, those should remain fairly steady.
I have 5, going general as I want out of the point game there. I’m sure a few more in the 4-6 range will dump as well.
Don, you lose your points if you draw in the random.
Steve at Toprut is correct as he gets all the available data.
Special Gen random odds for 2021 were 30.0%
If you pay for odds and they're anything other than 30% for special gen random, you're dealing with someone who doesn't understand the process.
WB, could you please explain. The numbers I have are straight off the Wyo G&F website. What am I missing?
WB me too, my calc was just over 16% 2021 NR special elk random draw, general.
NR never draw the full 16% allocation in the initial draw so they backfill to get to the 7,250. This is done after the demand reports are created so you don't see the license increase on those reports.
from Z's flowchart article, and a good explanation...
The nonresident regular draw:
Next, the regular draw quota is divided 75 percent for preference points and 25 percent for the random draw. Just as in the special draw, the preference point draw is first and then the random draw. Any quota remaining from those draws is used in determining additional general licenses to meet the 7,250 requirement. There’s a chance there could be undersubscribed limited-quota licenses.
At this point Game and Fish calculates the number of licenses remaining from the 7,250 nonresident elk licenses allocated by Commission regulation. This determines the number of additional general licenses needed to be added to the nonresident quota. Special general applicants have the first chance at these licenses and anything remaining is available to regular general applicants.
Thanks for the explanation. So much for simple division. Just one more reason I Thank God I’m a Wyoming resident. My head hurts after reading all that!
Hmmm, I burnt my 9 WY points last year to get a buddy and GEN tags last year.
Had a good hunt so I threw in for Special GEN elk this year. Didn’t realize my odds were that good. I told my wife we’d get that $1300 back not to worry. I hope I lied.
Thanks! I wish I could delete that post so I only I know this:)
For the record WB, I was betting you were right!
they added 302 licenses in 2021
So what you thinking this year Random Regular vs Special?
What we’re last years odds with “backfill? Simple math was 8% and 16% per WY G&F site…..
The less people on forums talk about the wy gen odds the better the odds get.
Not only has that ship sailed, that ship sank! Anyone remotely interested knows in Non Resident Elk hunting has 1,000+ venues to read up for days on the topic. Discussing odds on here isn’t convincing new entries into the pool. If anything the doom and gloom talk is likely dissuading them from even trying lol
+1 Caz and TEmbry.
I've come to the realization I won't be hunting elk every year. Maybe not even every other year but I'll fill in those other years taking advantage of other opportunities to hunt other stuff. Maybe even substitute a big fishing trip somewhere for my annual western hunt.
When you love the outdoors, you'll find a way feed your passion.
The 24.5% was in the 2021 Special up to 2 points, not in last year's 2022 Special as it was 11.7% up to 2.5 points, via H-Trail--odd's.
I talked to him yesterday about this thread.
Paragraph I read this Am…..,
“In 2018, there were roughly 15,000 nonresident special draw tag applications, she said. In 2022, there were 23,500”
If I remember correctly, 4 was 100% last year in regular draw. I assume it will jump but by how much is the question. Three of us are combining our points and will be at 4.66. I definitely don't think that is 100% but close enough I have decided not to pay the Specila price. Good plan or not?
I think 4.5 in the regular will be a lock 4 points should have a good shot maybe 50% even a little higher. 3.5 to guarantee the special.
I would be very confident going into the regular draw with an average of 4.66.
Going in with none, random special, time will tell.
2022 special gen random was 19%, if your odds provider has something different, get a refund. Every app 3.1667 and above was 100%.
2022 regular random was 8%. 27 out of 82 apps at 3.6667 drew (shown), everybody at 3.7500 and above drew.
What do you guys consider ‘good odds’ when looking for a limited tag?
I have had good luck drawing tags in the 30% range.
I only apply to areas I'm sure I'll draw unless it's an add-on doe license.
I consider 100% good odds. With my work I have to request leave in October the year before to have it guaranteed off. So I plan my falls a year in advance. I typically don’t apply for anything but points in western draws until I’m certain I will pull the tag. The exception being OIL type tags like Shiras and bighorn. I’d rather bank 2-3 points too many and schedule the hunt vs put in waiting for late spring every year to even know what I’m doing that fall.
WapitiBob… exactly! With draw odds not coming out until May I need to know before I apply. When I apply I’m sure I’m drawing.
There’s thousands of guys that play the odds.
And there are more tags available in the Regular draw than the Special draw? Is that for both the General tags and the Limited Entry?
To clarify, I meant in the random draw.
Cnelk I'm with you I apply every year playing the random odds until I have enough points to draw the tag I want. I get why some don't apply every year due to having a more restrictive work schedules. But to me the small app fee is worth the chance to cut in line every year guys with 0 points draw general tags in the random.
Shitty thing about WY results way down the line. Apply today, get results in 3 months…… wtf!
And don’t try to say it’s because of “x” or “y” reason, it is BS. But it is what it is.
PushCo it’s not about the app fees. It’s the timing. For example unless you want to hunt both states, if you want to hunt Wyoming and apply you can’t apply to Montana because you won’t know if you drew Wyoming until long after the Montana draw results are out. You can always withdraw your Wyoming app but if that’s where you really prefer to hunt your screwed. The good ol days were when you knew by the middle of February if you’re hunting Wyoming or not before other states even started accepting apps.
Thanks guys this helps a lot. Things are really getting shaken up there the next few years and I think odds are going to seesaw.
I can say with 100% certainty that 3 points DID NOT guarantee a tag in Special. Me and EMG did not draw GEN in the special last year year. We are hoping to draw with 4 this year.
They can not draw the licenses before quotas are set in April or May. The outfitters' association is behind the early app period and WG&F is sticking to their guns in not drawing until after quotas are set.
Ohio is correct. I wouldn’t get your hopes up about 4 points even this year either.
wytex that's true but nothing is stopping them from moving the app deadline to the same as resident elk or NR antelope and deer. I suspect they fear the loss of NR revenue that would go along with having a later deadline especially one as late as their current antelope and deer deadline which would be due later then most states some would even already have results out (NM).
Sly Sy Gilliland told the Commission if they kept the early nr draw period, unsuc nr would then apply for D/A, increasing dept revenue. That year there was an increase in nr D/A apps (which happens every year) so at this point, there is no chance the dept is going to move the Elk date.
Thanks for a good thread due to some knowledgeable bowsiters that go in depth on this subject.
Push it will not be moved unless the outfitters association goes along with it and they will not. They want 1st shot at NR applicants across the West on elk.
You guys all know I have a soft spot for outfitters. It’s a tough business. But the privatization of hunting in any way is complete bullshit.
A lot of the Wyoming units only have 9-14 day seasons. How many clients can you possibly provide quality hunts for in that amount of time?
A Forest Service user permit only give them so many days too. The ones I know are booked solid. What’s the problem???
That's a good question, Mule Power. I totally agree it's a tough racket and the folks who succeed via free market have earned their success. The problem is, IMO, the outfitter assoc. is so damn greedy that they never believe they have enough. They won't stop until they have every damn tag in the West and clearly don't give two shits about 1) the future of hunting, and 2) people who want to hunt without hiring an outfitter.
I talked to my bud from Pa. and a couple of them booked a Thorofare Wilderness hunt 3 years ago as all the Outfitters are booked out 3-4 years for that Gen elk tag area.
They were not going to do points anymore because they each had 2 points, but the Outfitter told him to get a point every year.
Now they have 5 elk points and to play it safe they are going Pricey Fee and Hope to draw and if they don't then they will get bumped a few more years out.
How things have change in just a few years.
Good luck, Robb
Robb I remember just 10 years ago we used to pick primo units for our first choice and general license as our second. If we didn’t draw our first choice, which we never did, we’d get the general license AND a point! Now that all seems like it was a dream.