How are you Stock Market Proponents now?
General Topic
Contributors to this thread:
KHNC 28-Jan-22
Jaquomo 28-Jan-22
Grey Ghost 28-Jan-22
Dale06 28-Jan-22
grossklw 28-Jan-22
Chief23 28-Jan-22
soccern23ny 28-Jan-22
MQQSE 28-Jan-22
Z Barebow 28-Jan-22
deerhunter72 28-Jan-22
JohnMC 28-Jan-22
AZ8 28-Jan-22
sticksender 28-Jan-22
KHNC 28-Jan-22
Rocky D 28-Jan-22
Grey Ghost 28-Jan-22
Rocky D 28-Jan-22
azelkhntr 28-Jan-22
Mint 28-Jan-22
Jaquomo 28-Jan-22
Rocky D 28-Jan-22
AZ8 28-Jan-22
Bob H in NH 28-Jan-22
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Grey Ghost 28-Jan-22
Mint 28-Jan-22
Rocky D 28-Jan-22
BC 28-Jan-22
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sticksender 29-Jan-22
midwest 29-Jan-22
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ahunter76 29-Jan-22
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Will tell 12-Jan-23
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Mike Ukrainetz 28-Jan-23
Grey Ghost 29-Jan-23
Beendare 29-Jan-23
From: KHNC
28-Jan-22
Stock market has dropped most EVERY day for over a month now. How are yall that were such huge proponents when i mentioned this 5-6 weeks ago? Still making plenty of money? I lost a bunch before i sold my Mutual Funds to buy some land. Fortunately my land is still worth as much today as it was last month. My Mutual Fund would have dropped by 15-20k if i had waited to sell until today for example. Glad i got out in time.

From: Jaquomo
28-Jan-22
Glad I went to cash with some big stuff a month ago, and now have a pile waiting to drop back in after this settles down.

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jan-22
I'm down about 10% from my highs on stocks, which I'm pleased with considering the broader markets have fallen a bit more than that. I made plenty of gains in 2020 and 2021 to offset this correction. And, like Lou, I'm sitting on a nice pile of cash to put back into stocks when things settle down a bit.

I survived the 2000 dot com crash, the 2008 financial crash, and the 2020 covid crash. This minor correction is just a blip on the radar, and should be another opportunity to buy some great stocks at a discount, soon.

Matt

From: Dale06
28-Jan-22
I’m feeling fantastic. The DOW is down about 5.9% this past month. The DOW is up 11% the past year and over 70% the past five years. If you are concerned about one month, or a few months or even a year, you should probably invest in a bank savings account or CDs and loose money every day, to inflation. Seriously.

From: grossklw
28-Jan-22
Meh...I'm in for the long haul. Dips and peaks don't bother or excite me, strategy may change as I get older, but I likely won't notice this in 30 years. Hindsight is always 20/20, I'm still real estate heavy but stock market has it's place in my portfolio. S and P 500 is still currently up 15% over the last calendar year.

I max rothIRA's January 2 every year, this year it wasn't so great, but the 28% I got last year I would say I did ok. I'm still buying stocks and real estate. Maybe you are lucky and you got out in time. Or maybe it shifts again and you miss out on another 20% year. Nobody has the answer that, and if they tell you they do they're lying.

You only lose it if you sell. Keeping a lot of cash with the current rate of inflation doesn't interest me much, but to each their own.

From: Chief23
28-Jan-22
I was thinking of calling Pelosi, i'm sure she has some great stock tips to give out to the general public.

From: soccern23ny
28-Jan-22
Dollar cost average so it doesnt matter longterm.

Same with Bitcoin, dollar cost average

From: MQQSE
28-Jan-22
Just dollar cost average and keep at it every two weeks for 40 years and don’t look back. Buy land too!

From: Z Barebow
28-Jan-22
401K

2021- Up 18.3% (and more than 1/3 of that gain was in January. Before the JB could impact much)

2022- down 11.94 for the year. But JB will turn it around on 1/31 ;)

2019 & 2020. Up 28% and 24% respectively.

At 56, don’t tell me the stock market isn’t the economy. (That is entitled loser talk)

From: deerhunter72
28-Jan-22
I am regretting not parking a large chunk of money into a money market at the beginning of this month. Only regret it because the investments will be sold as we roll the money from a 403b into a 457, totally different plan with better investments and much lower fees. Could've sold high and bought back in lower. Otherwise I don't pay much attention.

From: JohnMC
28-Jan-22
I am 45 been consistently sticking money in the stock market for over 20 years. It is amazing what you can accumulate over that period of time. I most likely will retire in 4-5 years and never work another day in my life. The wife and I have never made what many would consider huge money, but both have done well over the years. Lived below our means and because of that and the stock market are in a nice position at this point in our lives. Not saying the stock market is the only way to make your money work for you. Guys do well in real estate and other areas. Also not saying buying a piece of land is a bad investment. It is hard to have a piece of land generate income for retirement or go up in value like same amount of money in the markets over the long term. Also you don't want to have to sell your land that you become very attached to and get enjoyment or of to fund your retirement.

My last two cents is diversify. Diversify what you have in the markets. Stocks, bonds whether mutual funds or individual stocks/bonds. Different sectors, small companies, large companies, US companies and over seas. Short term bonds/Long term bonds. No doubt sometimes the stock market is 2 steps forward and 1 step back. But if you really look it more like 3 or 4 steps forward and one step back historically speaking. If you have time on your side the markets are hard to beat for passive use of your money.

KHNC I think we can agree the investing in anything better than putting with that outfitter in ID that got you ;)

From: AZ8
28-Jan-22
I’m down, but buying huge chunks in certain sectors. Patience. If you’re still fairly young, wait it out. A lot of bargains out there and the bounce back up will reward many. Not for the faint at heart.

Time in the market beats timing the market.

From: sticksender
28-Jan-22
To correctly invest in equities for retirement, you should scarcely notice variations over 2 or 3 years, let alone a couple of weeks. I only need to know my 30-year rate of return.

From: KHNC
28-Jan-22
"KHNC I think we can agree the investing in anything better than putting with that outfitter in ID that got you ;)"

Montana, LOL.

I still have safe investments in my actual 401K. Not everyone uses the stock market for long term. Some use it for a short time, and others have to get out at some point. Cant always just wait and wait and wait. I chose to use real estate in this case. Sounds like yall have a plan. Of course, dont ever take dale06 advice. That guy is always quick to piss on someone.

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
It looks like most of us are losing around 11%, me included!

AZB, that’s really cool, time is the great money maker!

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jan-22
Along the lines of what JohnMC said, a wise man once said, "it's about time in the market, not timing the market." The average historical annual gain of the S&P 500 index is around 10%. At that rate, a $10K investment 30 years ago would be worth $174K today. If you worry about one month, or even a year, stocks probably aren't for you.

Matt

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
“ I only need to know my 30-year rate of return. “

Sticksender, I don’t think that comment works for all investors!

I would hate to retire and to have been planning on relying heavily on my investments and then have to suffer through a market crash early on!

From: azelkhntr
28-Jan-22
I was seriously considering dropping out into cash if biden was "elected". Very glad I didn't. Some good advise I received long ago. Don't let politics influence your monetary decisions. I'm into low risk G&I positions now tho since retirement. All is well.

From: Mint
28-Jan-22
The drop in March 2020 was significantly more than this correction and I didn't sell then why would I sell now. What does worry me is that we have two incompetent people in the Whitehouse and a Treasury Secretary that is a political pawn. If they started listening to Lawrence Summers a prior Democrat Treasury Secretary we wouldn't be in half this mess. The reluctance to change course one tiny bit is what scares me the most.

From: Jaquomo
28-Jan-22
^^^ this. I also own three properties in CO, and even in one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, my valuations haven't come close matching the stock market over the past 25 years, percentage wise, when you factor in property taxes, maintenance, etc..

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
“ I only need to know my 30-year rate of return. “

Sticksender, I don’t think that comment works for all investors!

I would hate to retire and to have been planning on relying heavily on my investments and then have to suffer through a market crash early on!

From: AZ8
28-Jan-22

AZ8's embedded Photo
AZ8's embedded Photo
Just to clarify, my retirement account is very diversified and more conservative. I really don’t touch that one at all and just let time take care of itself. I have a separate brokerage account 100% in the stock market and I’m very aggressive in it. This is what that looks like….lol

From: Bob H in NH
28-Jan-22
Since I am staring at an early retirement decision, yeah, January has me nervous, but I have until late 2023 until I touch any of that money. AT least that far out, so the logical part of me says, no worries, that's 2 years. The nervous part of me is watching close before I make a final decision

From: JohnMC
28-Jan-22
Rocky when you reach retirement or nearing retirement that is the time you have to change things up. Certainly should not have the same approach in or near retirement you did when you were 10 year plus from retirement. No doubt navigating through retirement investing has been tough with with the low interest rates we have seen for many years. Low interest rate are great for businesses, those they are buying homes, or anyone that needs to borrow money. It also been good for the markets as many have put money there since nothing else (bonds, CDs for example don't pay anything). It is tough for those trying to earn income off their money and almost forces you to take more risk than in the past during retirement.

These are reason I think it important to have a good competent financial advisor you trust if you are not savvy to what your options are and/or tend to make emotional decisions when things are bumpy. Especially as you near retirement. If for no other reason than to give you a idea of how much money you can spend and likely not run out of money before you die. If you have no clue to that question and there is really no precise answer. However you should be able to get within the ballpark you should quit spending until you do. You would hate to get to say 75 and realize your almost broke.

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jan-22
Speaking of stocks, that was a nice rally into close, today!!

From: Mint
28-Jan-22
The current wisdom is when retiring put most of your money in "safe investments" but if those safe investments have such poor returns then why not keep invested in stocks and have a year's worth of cash. Even if you have a few years worth of losses the overall gains of the balance of your funds in the stock market will probably surpass those losses unless we run into a five year bear market.

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
Bob H, I am not the smartest when it comes to the market but if I was in your situation I would be playing it really safe right now!

My 401K is strictly for the wife if she lives a lot longer than I do! I do not have to touch that money! I have had it in the safest offering since December!

As far as the market is concerned I only do index funds so I am not overly aggressive!

I simply want the money to be working for me instead of the bank!

From: BC
28-Jan-22
I would advise anyone to get in and stay in. Don't let the ups and downs worry you. The stock market IS the economy. It represents every sector of economic activity in our country and the world. Over the long run it ALWAYS goes up. Hang tough, compound interest is a beautiful thing.

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
There is more to it than getting in and staying in! I think! Some of you really smart guys on the subject can tell me otherwise!

From: JohnMC
28-Jan-22
Rocky not a smart guy but BC is correct. No don't get started by picking one stock and putting all your money there. It is certainly better to have a plan. With that said if you are a young guy or even a not so young guy pick a fund or two and start squirrelling away money, is far better than doing nothing because you don't know where or how to start. Investing is certainly intimating at first. Set a goal to save at least 15% of your income for retirement. If every 20 something out there would do that and just stick it in a index fund that follows the S&P and nothing else (am I not saying that is the best plan) they could not help but being wealthy by the time they reach retirement. That money is for retirement and nothing else. You are not going to touch it for vacations (even if that vacation is a hunt), emergencies, a home down payment or anything else. Before you do that make sure you got at least 6 months of money in cash in the bank that way when things come up and they always do you don't need to reach into retirement funds. If you are saving for a truck, vacation, down payment on a house have separate accounts for that. If those are short term goals keep it out the markets. Last thing look at a amortization calculator where you can see if you put in the same amount of money each year with a assumed rate of return where you will be in 10 years, 20 years, your target retirement date. Because when you can see long term effects of your savings it makes it a lot easier to squirrel that money away and shoot your current bow for another year instead of spending on this year new bow.

Bottom line doing something is better than nothing. Down the line you can get a little more sophisticated.

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
There is more to it than getting in and staying in! I think! Some of you really smart guys on the subject can tell me otherwise!

From: Dale06
28-Jan-22
We “got in” the stock market and other investments about 35 years ago. Wife and I use an investment manager. It was the most important financial decision We’ve ever made. He found lots of investment opportunities that we would never have found. And he helped us adjust and re balance as needed. I have no idea what he makes off our account, but I know what we’ve made. And I’m ecstatic with the results.

From: Snag
28-Jan-22
Just remember you haven’t taken a lose until you sell! Investing should be a long term plan, not a short term gamble. If you want to gamble go to Vegas. Or take some amount of money you can afford to loose and invest it in aggressive ways. But the best way to build wealth comfortably is dollar cost averaging over time with making adjustments as fiscal climates change. With the current person guiding this country hand on!

From: JohnMC
28-Jan-22

JohnMC's embedded Photo
JohnMC's embedded Photo
Forgive the screen shot of my computer screen. But what this picture shows if you were 25 years old saved $620 for 40 year or until you are 65 you will have 2 million dollars at retirement. That is doable for many! If not $310 a month still a millionaire at retirement. That is assuming a 8% return.

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jan-22
The concept of relying on an investment manager kinda makes my skin crawl. No one will care more about your investments than you. I realize it takes some research and study, and some people don't have that time. But, financial literacy is as important as learning to read and write, IMO. It's not "rocket surgery" as my friend likes to say.

Rocky, as you know, investing is a balancing act between risks and the time frame you have before you rely on your investments. I maintained an aggressive investment strategy while my wife and I were still earning at our peak. Now that we've both retired, I've adopted a conservation over growth strategy. About 1/2 of our net worth is in debt-free real-estate. The rest is about an even split between stock, bonds, and money markets. The net annual gains of our investments more than pays for our cost of living, barring any unexpected financial disasters, like serious health issues or some natural disaster.

Matt

From: JohnMC
28-Jan-22
I partially disagree with Matt but for some it can work. What he said is kind of like saying nothing is more important than your health so I am not going to trust a doctor with it. This thread was started and not picking on KHNC by someone that was letting emotions choose what to do instead of logic. That is easy to happen even for a guy like me that likes to think he has no emotions.

I agree is not 'rocket surgery' when you are just socking away money. I think as you start getting closer to retirement and into retirement you better be very financial literate if you go it alone. If you use a advisor pick him or her wisely. Some are really good other not so much and some are just easier to relate to and understand.

From: Rocky D
28-Jan-22
“ Now that we've both retired, I've adopted a conservation over growth strategy.”

GG, that is my exact point! There is a strategy which is more than just getting in the market. That is basically what I told Bob H now that he is the retirement countdown mode.

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jan-22
Rocky, I never doubted you know how to properly invest for retirement. It's not the black magic some think it is.

Matt

28-Jan-22
I'm not looking at it. I look at my money once per year.

I did just sell a house and have a bunch of cash that I'm not sure what to do with now.

From: t-roy
28-Jan-22
Ike….Maybe a Stone sheep hunt?? You’re not getting any younger!

From: Beendare
28-Jan-22
I sold some stuff going to 35% in cash at the beginning of the year with the intent to sell more…but didn’t. Im overweight energy (ETFs) and high dividend stocks like TRTN and KMI.

I had some huge gain in a few ETFs that I have owned for years. I found myself evaluating whether it was worth it to sell it and pay 50% in taxes on the gains or just ride it out. A couple of those are down 20%… it remains to see whether I was right.

I think the 7% reported inflation is way under the actual. The current government policies will only exacerbate inflation.

I’m looking to buy the semi index SMH, MGM, CSR, and a few others but I’m waiting for a sign of capitulation.

I’m always looking for a trade and open to ideas, hint, hint. Grin

28-Jan-22
All I can say is this....If I had the IRA Opportunities in my 20's I would have easily retired before 50 instead of 58..... There is always money to be made in any market.... For those of you who get hung up on politics and listen to the BS from both sides, yeah, you lose its that simple..... At 72 I readjust,,, of course I have taken losses, only to have more opportunities in the future, like today......

The trick is no debt, except property, which I have just bought more,,,, As far as a vehicle, would not waste my money, but will buy land,,,,,,, 'some of you should wake up, because there is alot of opportunity out there,,,just open your eyes

From: AZ8
28-Jan-22
JohnMC, it’s interesting you posted that screenshot showing what saving X amount can do.

After graduating college, 1991....I had an extra $10,000 or so. My local banker encouraged/begged me to open an IRA and just make the max contributions per year. She told me that...”I’d be swimming in money” at age 65. I’m now 53 and think about that missed boat all the time!!

At 22 years old, my mind was on other things. I couldn’t comprehend 45 years in the future.

From: Genesis
29-Jan-22
To the risk adverse,one of life’s most expensive hobby’s is checking your portfolio Chasing returns is a losing proposition for most.I’m a mutual fund investor,buy and hold and realize markets go up and markets go down and avoid the noise.

For ME,that presently has been working for 30 years

From: MQQSE
29-Jan-22
Fees and trying to time the market are perhaps the two largest inhibitors to maximum returns. It’s hard to beat a low cost strategy made up of long term investing at regular time intervals in market index funds. I’ll take that every day of the century over someone charging me for their “expertise” in addition to using that “advice” to time when I do or don’t invest. The math proves it.

From: sticksender
29-Jan-22
Agree with Genesis & Mqqse.

And I'm not that interested in gradually moving more and more capital into "safer" funds, as I approach retirement age. What for? It's not like I'm waiting for retirement day to then spend all that money in one chunk. The reason for saving is so that we can later withdraw a tiny percentage (say 2-4 %) annually to live on, if needed. The bulk stays invested, so why would I want to accept lower returns, ever? If it's only so that I won't have to worry & fret over every market swing, that's a fundamental mistake.

From: midwest
29-Jan-22
I'll retire (probably) in about a year and a half whether the market is up or down. Agree with Genesis and my investment risk doesn't change the closer I get. I have 2 investment advisors I trust.

From: Dale06
29-Jan-22
Mqqse, glad that apparently worked out for you. Me hiring an investment manager in the early 90s made us money far beyond any thing we could have done alone. He is into this stuff 60 hours or more per week. We were in careers and had little time or expertise to find investment strategy’s. As I stated above, I really don’t know, or care what he makes off our account, as long as our investments do well. And they have done exceptionally well. It’s “net” thing for us.

From: Grey Ghost
29-Jan-22
Sticksender,

The reason to move money into less risky investments near retirement is to conserve the gains. A retiree typically doesn't have the time to recover from a major market crash. Remember, a 50% crash requires a 100% gain to get back to even. I know several retirees who were crushed by the 2008 financial market crash because they weren't hedged against it. All of them had to drastically scale back their lifestyles and costs of living. A few even had to go back to work.

Matt

From: Rocky D
29-Jan-22
^^^^ YUP!

From: ahunter76
29-Jan-22
According to our 1099s coming in & capitol gains we did pretty friggin good. Wife draws from hers & recovered all her distributions + gained. A few years ago I said to the wife, Market went over 17 so were makin good money. Ummm, Double + since then.. That being said our financial advisor is "excellent" & is in contact on a regular basis & we feel lucky in that way.

From: Matt
29-Jan-22
“Of course, dont ever take dale06 advice.”

In this case, he is spot on.

From: SDHNTR(home)
29-Jan-22
X2 on dale06!

Those of you who think you can time this beast are only kidding yourselves. You may get it right a time or two, maybe enough to build some dangerous and imaginary self confidence. Then with that false confidence you’ll make bigger bets, only to get it even more wrong eventually, hopefully without catastrophic consequences. Then ultimately, you claim that the “system” is broken because it didn’t go your way. I hope you traders aren’t doing this with money you’ll eventually need.

Those that maintain a long term view that ignores the noise are doing it right.

From: sticksender
29-Jan-22
The "fear of loss" in retirement investing can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Investing too conservatively over decades of time means you build less, which in turn reduces your ability to tolerate loss.

From: bigeasygator
29-Jan-22
How are yall that were such huge proponents when i mentioned this 5-6 weeks ago?

The bulk of my money tied up in the market is in retirement accounts that I likely won’t touch for 15-20 years. So these corrections we’re seeing now mean essentially nothing - if anything, it gives me a bit more buying power at the moment.

Like we talked about, if you are in a position where you cannot tolerate a 5-10% correction (or more), then perhaps the stock market isn’t the place to keep your money.

From: Drummer Boy
29-Jan-22
MQQSE is spot on.But any kind of investing is better than nothing,even if you use the (guy).

From: Jaquomo
29-Jan-22
+1 Dale and GG. No one foresaw the crashes in 87, 2000, or 2008. But someone invested in an aggressive portfolio and retiring in those years, drawing from their portfolios for living expenses, will not make that up for decades. Maybe ever. Their carefully calculated withdrawal plan could result in much lower standard of living in retirement.

I switched to a professional (from mostly DIY) a few years before retirement, when I had "enough" money. I'm not greedy, so we went more conservative and moved some more into a solid annuity I was building. Yes, I lost out on some gains, but no one can predict the future and I couldn't risk another 2008 with my short window. I'm not sorry. My advisor is a bowhunter I've known for a long time and I trust him.

Now retired for almost 8 years and remarried to someone with a good gubmint pension and her own fat investment account. We are living confortably on my annuity, dividends, SS, and her pension, and our investments are just play money. Our income is not affected by market swings. So we moved a bunch into more aggressive investments. But if I was drawing that formulaic 4-5% a year (pick your number), I would still be in a very conservative portfolio to minimize the risk.

From: JohnMC
29-Jan-22
For guys reading this that are new or just thinking about getting into investing. Some the debates above are not that important and just makes this topic seem harder than it needs to be. It is lot like which broadhead. You could say using an advisor is a mechanical broadhead and and not is a fixed head. They both work but you need to do one or the other. I can think back to when I was early 20's I had some cash sitting in checking account it seemed like a lot at the time. I happened to meet a Financial advisor he invested that money and more importantly got me investing some out of each paycheck. First max what your company will match in a 401k, what they match is free money. Then max what you can contribute to it (it is pre-tax). That is easy. Your company will have a list of funds to pick from if not sure as a trusted co worker. Get started as your nest egg grows you can get a little sophisticated in what funds and types of accounts. The most important part is you are putting away money for retirement. Remember 10k when your 25 is the same investing about 40k when you are 45 or 160k when you are 65. Started today don't wait. It was one the best decisions I ever made.

From: Genesis
29-Jan-22
"Risk Adverse" to me only applies to not being emotional at one's present asset allocation.I fully expect I will move my allocation from less stocks to more bonds as my time from retirement decreases. Some individuals can stomach the ebbs and flow of market volatility others can't.Some investors need an advisor and others do not to meet objectives. Inflation is presently a small rock in my boot though.

From: TEmbry
29-Jan-22
Best investments I’ve made to date were in real estate but not because I had a pile of cash to squirrel away somewhere. Paying cash for real estate vs buying into market is a tough call. If you don’t have much to begin with, my comparisons seem to show rental properties blowing stocks out of the water. Throwing 20% down on a rental and allowing it to pay itself off in 15 years from there coupled with the equity gains along the way nets more than a mutual fund with the same timeline.

But I am young and finally had some good advice stick. Never think you know it all and have an egg in as many baskets as possible. I use play money in day trading to learn more about the market. I aim to pick up a new rental property every 1-2 years, and utilize a money manager for my other market investments, they know more than me and I’m okay with admitting that!

From: DanaC
29-Jan-22
You can go on many investment sites and take a short 'test' to determine how much risk you are 'comfortable' with. They'll usually cook up a mix of funds that matches your 'profile.'

Or just invest in a 'target date' fund, which automatically tapers your investment risk downward as you approach retirement age. I did that several years before retirement with my IRA. My 401-k from my last job is still a moderately aggressive mix. Neither is immune to nor overly sensitive to market fluctuations in the longer run. (They did drop some this month, but I'm still well ahead of where I thought I'd be several years ago.)

From: Beendare
29-Jan-22
I do some market timing in the context of managing risk.

If you don’t think we are going into volatile times with this president you have your head in the sand. A week president creates big problems. Trump was a bully and an ass, but he was our bully. ( Some abhor politics- sorry but politics matter)

There are many negatives out there inc the Fed raising rates which is historically bad, Massive inflation, Russia and the big dice roll: China/Taiwan. What if Biden keels and Kamala takes over? I’m OK with keeping a little over a third of my stock mkt money in cash.

Whether the market goes up or down in that time- I can’t read the future but it doesn’t look good. I’m content with keeping a percentage of my money in cash to manage the risk.

An investor always has to consider the tax consequences not only on sells but also buy strategies. I treat trades differently than I treat long-term investments using trades to offset gains and losses in my taxable accounts- multiple accts to get around the 30 day rule… and trading in my Non tax IRA.

I am a big proponent of the reversion to the mean theory and it has made me a lot of money over the years. Charts are very important and tell you a lot. Take a look at the chart of Nvidia or Moderna and that’s all you need to know. I do not buy stocks on a steep ramp ups, and will capture profit a steep run up, they always come back to earth. I always try to buy down around the 50 day or the 200 day MA mostly dollar cost averaging in. I don’t try to capture every dollar on trades and I try to stop out losses though that doesnt always work.

I stay away from companies that have zero earnings. Yes I have missed out on some big gainers but it’s part of my managing the risk strategy, I’ve also saved myself from some big duds. For every Tesla there is a Lordstown..

I look at forward trends….industries (ETFs) that I think will do well. I dont care much about past performance. A guy buying the Software index 30%+ off its highs will probably see a little more pain in the short term but in a few years he will way outperform the market. I question; What will do well in the next 5 years…. And is it a relative value is the way I approach it.

I sometimes capture gains and offset risk with covered options.

High flyers like Tesla will need 100 years to catch up to its stock valuation. Too much risk there for me.

The key to being a good investor is to have a strategy and to stick to it, take the emotion out of investing. I think a young guy would do well to study those topics above and develop his own strategy.

.

From: HDE
29-Jan-22
Investing in real estate can be as foolish as investing in stocks.

Chose poorly with either one, and your money will get better use buying slurpee's and hot dogs at the local 7-Eleven

From: lewis
29-Jan-22
I’ve done very well and I consider myself very lucky. I do all my own and have been way ahead of the market averages for a lot of years. I also have done well in my real estate holdings I have never lost a dime on any property that I have sold. I was lucky when I picked up a lot of Apple stock and it has done very well. I regret selling my Home Depot and Crocs while they made a nice profit they’re a couple hundred percent up from I sold them for. I always chuckle at my saying pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered if that makes sense.Good luck Lewis

From: deerhunter72
29-Jan-22
One very important thing to keep an eye on with any investment is what kind of fees you are paying. Too high fees will cost you tens of thousands of dollars over time. Insurance companies, that often sell annuities, are notorious for baking in fees that you aren’t even aware of if you aren’t paying attention.

From: Grey Ghost
29-Jan-22
Lewis,

Almost 20 years ago I got interested in trading stocks. Back then, brokers required you to fill out a lengthy application, including bank and tax statements. They all had a minimum deposit requirement, and they charged fees for every trade. IIRC, it took 3-4 weeks for my account to be approved. I started with an amount that wouldn't kill me, if I lost it all.

I began enthusiastically making numerous trades per day, while chasing a few percentage points with each trade. I soon learned I was spending more on trading fees than I was making in returns. The one stock that I let ride during that period was Apple. Holy cash cow!! It taught me the value of buying quality stocks and holding onto them. So, I added Amazon and Intuitive Surgical to my Apple shares, and let those 3 positions ride ever since. That small account has paid for 2 new trucks, a boat, and numerous vacations, and is still worth over 3 times what I invested. I often dream about what our retirement accounts would look like if I'd invested everything in just those 3 companies. 20/20 hindsight, of course.

Matt

From: lewis
29-Jan-22
G G you are correct picking quality stocks is really hard to argue against I every now and then gamble on an iffy stock some have done well others not so good. I also like to carry some high paying dividend paying stocks I have a couple that have averaged around 12-14% over the years. I got hurt a little on those when the pandemic hit but they still paid their dividends so I can’t complain.Good luck Lewis

From: JohnMC
29-Jan-22
If you ever wanted to own a titty bar you can buy RICK. I just looked it up I owned a little of it several years ago made a little not a lot but just looked damn thing quadrupled during COVID. No one told me lap dances prevented the China Virus.

From: Mark S
29-Jan-22
This is one of the better threads in awhile. Lots of sound advice here. Pros are much better than me and are a great option so is diy - kind of like hunting. . Been doing my own for a long time so do my own thing. Can go stocks, funds, index, managed. The best time is when you have the sooner the better. Lots of advantages Esp in 401k where there is a match as John said. Plus Retirement accounts enjoy tax benefits ( now or later). Warren Buffet and Charlie are still killing it because they apply so much common sense and invest in what they know/ understand Love what slot of you guys are doing. Ps - I saw a derogatory post directed at Dale - he has NEVER had a bad post - imo

From: SteveB
30-Jan-22
Buy the S&P 500 index and add regularly. Never look back.

From: Beendare
30-Jan-22
Double post

From: thedude
30-Jan-22
Steve b is on point but I also do VT and VIG to reduce my exposure to overvalued tech.

From: Driver
30-Jan-22
Am I down this month, yes. Am I up a LOT in the last 6 YES.

I'm beating the FJB inflation so I'm good.

From: SDHNTR(home)
31-Jan-22
Be sure you understand the mechanics of a cap weighted index if you are going to blindly throw money at such funds. I’m not anti index fund at all, I use them too (in etf form), but in a unique way. Cap weighted indices have created concentrations and additional risk that most individual investors do not realize. Do some research and make sure you understand this subject and are aware of the increased risk. The consequences otherwise might be surprising.

From: sasquatch
01-Feb-22
Sticksender

The reason to move to conservative investments near retirement is a simple reason.

Once you won the game you quit playing.

If you won the lottery, you wouldn’t really be out there spending all the money on lottery tickets and gambling more at the casino to win again. A smart person would realize he just got lucky, now it’s about preservation.

From: DanaC
01-Feb-22
You can draw parallels between investing and archery - some guys like to 'keep it simple' - buy a bow and arrows, have the local pro shop keep them tuned and shooting. Others like to tinker with bows, build arrows, do as much of their own hands-on as possible.

Investing can be as simple or complex as your interest dictates. Pick your own investments or go with a broker who understands your needs.

Personally I'd rather spend time shooting than watching the market. ymmv

01-Feb-22
I have been in over 40 years, it has gone very, very well.

From: sticksender
01-Feb-22
sasquatch, my question "what for?" was actually just rhetorical. I do indeed already know the reason guys think they need to exit higher-yielding funds as they approach retirement. They believe this "preserves their wins". My approach is the opposite, because for my own purposes, with regard to that segment of my savings, that concept is faulty for my way of thinking, and guarantees long-term loss. It doesn't make sense for me, so I'll stay invested in stuff that has proven over the long haul to yield the best. In retirement, I want my yield to draw-off ratio to be as high as possible. That means I won't back off high-risk, high-yield funds, nor try to out-guess market timing. Like most people, I won't be taking it with me. Might as well leave the heirs in the best shape possible. YMMV, so do what's best for your own peace of mind.

From: APauls
01-Feb-22
Lots of investment advice here is spot on. The interesting thing is that everyone mentions "if only they had started when they were 25." I think that is because when you are 40 or 50 years old it is quite conceivable to save $500/month. When you are 25, not so much. Not when you are in the investment phase of your life as far as a career goes. Money is tight, you're building a family, and oh let's not forget all the other Bowsite advice saying "DO IT WHEN YOU'RE YOUNG!" ;)

I think another major aspect that comes into play for the entrepreneurial types is forgetting about the stock market, forgetting about real estate, and betting on yourself. It's a different world, and it's not for everyone. But if you can become a business owner, or shareholder and influence the growth of said business your returns can far exceed even a good stock market portfolio. In the risk/reward relationship this is by far the riskiest, with the highest potential level of return. You don't necessarily need to be a business start-up type person either. If you are an incredibly valued employee, and you know your worth it is not out of line to talk to your employer and ask about share options. If you believe in your place of business, and like where it is going, maybe you can forego some salary or bonuses in place of some shares. It can be a win-win as the employer more than likely locks down commitment of a key employee. If nothing else, it's another form of diversification. When it comes to investing in real estate, it's fun to buy hunting land, but if you're actually using it for investing purposes it had better be income generating real estate ie: housing or commercial etc.

From: Dale06
01-Feb-22
Lots of interesting advice above. I turn 71 this week. Started an investment account in my mid 30s. Didn’t have a lot to save but did so monthly and all of the bonuses I made over the years we’re invested. I’ll say it one more time, start as early as possible, $200 a month when you are 30 is way better than $500 a month when you are 50. Time and compounded earnings are huge. I retired at 61 and have not adjusted to a very conservative portfolio. Most of us need to plan to live 20 plus years after retiring, so retiring and immediately going conservative could leave you financially strapped near the end of your life.

From: Matt
01-Feb-22
I retired last year at 51 and my investment manager suggested that, with the combination of poor bond yields/inflation, tax consequences, and my relatively early retirement, it would be a mistake to pursue the traditional wisdom of shifting from equities into a more bond-heavy portfolio mix.

From: Drummer Boy
01-Feb-22
Dale06 I started at 26 not because I thought about it but because my company gave me 6% match.Sounded like a good deal to me.When I was around mid 30's I started investing in Vanguard.I ended up retired at 51,still can't beleave how it worked out.I am 67 now and glad I did what i did.

From: pav
01-Feb-22
" A smart person would realize he just got lucky, now it’s about preservation."

Dang, I must be dumb as hell... :^)

Right wrong or indifferent, my plan is to leave the bulk of retirements funds invested in stocks after retirement. Opened two Roth IRAs a few years ago and have been maxing those out ever since. Will likely go somewhat conservative on those smaller accounts at retirement. Plan to use them as income on years the stock market is down...with smaller withdrawals needed due to zero tax liability.

Based on account history, no reason to believe this is a bad decision. I can only review history online back to 2006, but during that 16 year span, accounts have only been in the red four times (12X in the black)...never red two years back to back (red once every 3-4 years)...and the worst crash in late 2008 was back in the black by mid-2010. Average gain during that 16 year span is over 12% annually. Think I'll take my chances....

From: 12yards
01-Feb-22
I am nearing retirement. Plan on going in October of 2023. I am not really getting that much less risky. I will have a pension when I retire, and will draw SS a little over a year after I retire. This will replace the majority of my current income. I also have a 457, about 1/3 of it is in cash which is the bucket I will draw from if I need it. The remaining 2/3 is in stock mutual funds that I plan on leaving there and possibly even moving some of my cash back in there. Also my wife will continue to work for 3-5 more years. She will also have a pension to draw from, a 403b and SS. We should be good and able to still carry some risk for growth.

If I were to go back in time and start over, I would not diversify. I'd start young in S&P Index funds and aggressive growth funds, small through blue chips, and keep dollar cost averaging into them. I wouldn't have bonds at all until quite a bit later. Not even sure I'd look at International. When I researched Int'l stock funds, they rarely beat U.S. Equity funds.

From: sasquatch
01-Feb-22
Hopefully the ones who don’t believe in preserving the wealth have about 2x what they will really need.

In that sense, go for it, it would make decent sense to stay risky.

For the ones who retire with about what it will take, a 2008 crash can cripple their retirement.

It may have recovered in a few years, but for one that’s not guaranteed as anyone would agree, also it’s harder to recover when you lose 40% PLUS are withdrawing every year.

Recovering is a lot easier when you don’t have to also withdraw the money to live on at the same times it’s down.

From: goyt
01-Feb-22
I think that sasquatch makes a number of good points in his last comment. If we are not in a good position to ride out a year or so of a falling market, there is more risk in being heavy in equalities. However, during a time of high inflation and low interest rates cash and bonds are going to result in loosing buying power and quality of life. IMO equalities have the lowest risk over a 3+ year time frame because history has proven that they provide the best return and stay ahead of inflation. I also think that no one can time the market and that it is best to invest in long term stocks and always be in the market. If an individual is under too much stress with the short-term variability of stocks it may sense for them to be in something more stable over the short term. I have a friend whose wife wants to be involved in managing their investments, but it is agonizing for her to pick stocks and she cannot sleep at night for worrying about them. For his wife's health, he has to look for an investing strategy that appears to be safer than buying and managing individual stocks. That is the best solution for them even though it may not be the best financially. IMO some of the comments above are about what is best for the commenter rather than what is best financially which is fine as long as everyone recognizes the distinction.

From: Jaquomo
01-Feb-22
Goyt, suggest your friend do what I did years ago. My late wife had a math brain. Our investments were with an advisor, but I gave her a few thousand in "play money" and told her to go for it. She subscribed to Motley Fool and a couple other DIY services, started picking some stocks, and consistently beat the market, while learning it. She would take the principal out after big gains and reinvest that elsewhere.

After awhile her portfolio got big enough that she was a little spooked, so we put most of it into our advisor account, and she kept on, except on a smaller scale. Then after she got sick, we rolled the rest over and took the burden off. But it was a great learning experience for her, and since she no longer worked outside the house, it gave her a productive feeling of contributing to our finances.

From: goyt
01-Feb-22
Jaquoma, I am happy that it worked out for you and your wife. It is a great idea. However, there is no way that I am going to give my friend martial advise.

From: Beendare
01-Feb-22
I agree with the guys above.

Some of the conventional portfolio advice of more bonds as you get older fails miserably in the interest rate environment we are going into now.

This is where I recommend looking forward. Using Past returns can fail you miserably and heres why; We are coming from an extended period of artificially low interest rates. We have had the Lowest home mortgage rates in my lifetime (6 decades) These can be manipulated for awhile…but not forever.

It doesn’t take much investment knowledge to see this upcoming trend.

The challenge with predicting what stock investments will work in the future is 2 fold. 1) what industries will work 2) what is their relative value

Tesla will sell more cars for sure…but at their $935B valuation, and only a tiny % of profit, the PE of 190 tells you it will be 190 year payback at the current earnings. Sure they are plowing $$ back into the co and no doubt their eps will rise….the Q is will it rise exponentially in the future now that they have a lot of competition? Typically when companies my first market they rock it up but as competitors come in their margins go down.

Do you think the need for semiconductors will rise in the coming years? Its an absolute certainty. Dollar cost avg into SMH will be a double in the next 5 yrs, the one negative would be if China takes over Taiwan and TSM.

From: Matt
01-Feb-22
One other thing to consider is that, during the wealth-building phase, it is typical to reinvest dividends/distributions. When one retires, it may be better to have those remain in cash. Simple stuff, but better to only pay taxes on the dividends/distributions than that plus cap gains on sales of stock if they get reinvested.

I was pleasantly surprised when I thought I was going to have to sell securities on 1/2/22 to fund our 1H22 household expenses to learn that Plus a bit more already sitting in my investment account.

From: 12yards
01-Feb-22
So is this a dead cat bounce?

From: goyt
01-Feb-22
Matt, I agree with you on the dividends. They are taxable in the year received regardless if they are reinvested. By getting cash, the option to buy any stock or use them for expenses is there. With free trades the attractiveness of reinvesting dividends is not as great. Once the dividends are reinvested it is not possible to sell stock to get their value out of the market w/o incurring capital gains in most cases. I look at dividends almost like social security as a guaranteed cash flow. Some stocks may drop dividends while others increase dividends is the short term and in the long run they go up.

01-Feb-22
My Crypto currency has tanked. I may jump off a virtual building :>))))

From: badbull
01-Feb-22
As always the level of experience and expertise among the regular Bowsiters on various subjects is outstanding including this one. Hopefully the young here will take the time to digest what is being said here and make some good financial decisions. I think that this thread could be a good basis for a high school or college course.

From: keepemsharp
01-Feb-22
Personally I hope all crypto currency goes to zero. A false market. And a drug dealers dream.

From: SDHNTR(home)
01-Feb-22
sticksender, FYI, while I understood what you meant, you are using the term "yield" in the place of total return. By definition, there is a difference. Yield is exclusively income generated by interest and dividends. Total return, on the other hand, includes yield, but also adds or subtracts the appreciation/depreciation of the investment's value. In today's environment, if you were to depend solely on yield, you might be in trouble!

Those of you guessing your proper asset allocation based on age, or winging it based on what feels right, or historical returns, or current market conditions, anything else, you need not do so. As is the case with most things related to investing, with a good financial plan, you eliminate the guesswork. A plan will detail and quantify exactly how much you should have in specific asset classes to meet your unique goals. Let the math decide. Not emotions.

From: peterk1234
01-Feb-22
I am feeling pretty good. I'm 55, retired for almost a year and have approximately 40% of my non-real estate investments in Bond and Income. I have never believed in timing the market. Put it in and keep it in. I believe it is well proven that you will not win the timing game vs consistent investing of surplus funds. I shifted from 70/30 to 60/40 a year ago. Additionally, 1/3 of my non "liquid" /non 401K/IRA investments are also in commercial real estate holdings. My goal with equities and bonds was to yield at least 4% per year once we retired (ya, the 4% rule) and we have been fortunate to soar past that during the last twelve months. I fully expect a 30% correction when it all hits the fan. Will be a good time to pour some more cash into the market, or even better maybe pick off some real estate at a reasonable price.

4% per year (without liquidating assets) used to be a no brainer for our parents and grandparents. But these days with near zero interest rates, it is a challenge. It requires everyone to take more risk, relying on greater concentrations in stocks. You have to supplement your bond and income producing assets with appreciation in the stock market. Not the ideal situation, but necessary today. Fortunately, everyone is chasing the stock market, placing excess cash in there. This is helping to really drive the market. Will it have a hard correction? You bet, but I can guarantee you before long everybody will be all in again. Add to that the government will eventually have turn on the quantitative easing again. That is just more capital that will get dumped into the markets, driven prices up further.

Don't forget, it ain't a gain or a loss unless you sell it. Unrealized does not count! Best advice I can give is don't look :)

From: deerhunter72
01-Feb-22
peterk, don’t look is great advice! I only look when the market hits a new high. This past year was unbelievable given the political mess we’ve been in.

Since you brought up the “4% rule”, I wonder what some of you more experienced guys think about that. That has been my plan when I retire in 8 years at 55 (my plan anyway). I’ve been reading some stuff that says to maybe dial that back to 3.5 or even 3%. Also, anyone have any knowledge on the “rule of 55” for accessing your 401k at 55?

From: SDHNTR(home)
01-Feb-22
Deerhunter72, The 4% is just a rough rule of thumb, very rough. It may work for some and not at all for others. As I have previously said many times, why rely on any rule of thumb? You are a unique individual, with assets and goals and preferences that are specifically your own. You don’t need this or any other financial rule of thumb. Instead, devise a quality financial plan and it will tell you precisely what your withdrawal amount should be. With statistical analysis, this number can be nailed down to the dollar, with 90%+ accuracy. Again, there is no need to guess at this. There are basic plans available online. And of course comprehensive plans can be produced by a fee only professional who is held to a fiduciary standard. Get the answers you deserve. Best of luck to you.

From: peterk1234
01-Feb-22
Deerhunter72, my income/ bond investments returned 2.8% last year. Blend that with modest growth in the equity portfolio, and your there. Some years you won't hit it, other years you will blow it out of the water, like last year. With interest rates increasing, the bond side of the market should see better yields this year.

From: SDHNTR(home)
01-Feb-22
Higher yields, potentially, but also greater likelihood of principal loss. There is an inverse relationship between interest rates and the prices of bonds. That’s not conjecture, it’s mathematics. Use caution.

From: deerhunter72
01-Feb-22
SDHNTR, thanks for the response, I value your opinion as a professional. We do work with a fee only advisor and we have a plan. He would like me to work longer, only to accumulate more money, but agrees that we can both retire at 55 with a safe draw down that won’t leave us penniless. I asked about the 4% rule because it’s a big topic with the FIRE community. I sometimes listen to some their blogs and find it interesting.

Peterk, thanks for responding. Sounds like your plan is working well for you.

From: Muddyboots
01-Feb-22
Dale06 x 2

From: Aubs8
02-Feb-22

Aubs8's Link
I was fortunate someone pointed me in the direction of Vanguard in my late 20s and read Jack Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds around the same time.

I also found the Trinity Study around that same time from where the 4% Rule originated which has impacted my decision making.

Attached is an article on the study somey may find helpful.

Take care. Mike

From: Aubs8
02-Feb-22

Aubs8's Link

From: DonVathome
02-Feb-22
I am up about 6% this year. I have 25% shorting the market, 25% in stocks with dividends of at least 7.5%, 25% in oil (XOM etc) and 25% in cash waiting for the crash I think is coming in a year at the most. I actually sold 5 rentals last year to free up cash to invest into the market when it crashes.

I predict real estate will be down about 20% by the end of next year and I plan to buy some more rentals.

From: Drummer Boy
02-Feb-22
Vanguard has a very good page on there web sight called how long will your money last.Its like a video game.

From: Mark S
02-Feb-22
something to consider is the rate of inflation. I see that it was 7.1% for 2021, so, I believe I have to outgain the inflation rate every year, or, I've lost money. For 2022 if we have high inflation and low returns it may be a negative year? Time will tell.

From: sasquatch
02-Feb-22
Everyone is stuck on inflation this year, which I understand. I am too

However we basically had 0 inflation for a long time previously. Overall we are way ahead as most were still getting raises all those years on top of investment growth.

From: Beendare
02-Feb-22
Jaq brought it up…and I would agree that investing is not rocket science.

With a few rules anyone can do as well if not better than the investment advisors that charge you a % of your portfolio then plug it into index funds or even worse, high commission annuities.

From: deerhunter72
02-Feb-22
Aubs, thanks for the link to the Trinity Study. I've heard a lot about it but have never really read much on it. Our plan is not set up on a hard and fast 4% draw, actually a little less I think but I'd have to look at it again.

Beendare, annuities have their place I guess, but you're correct about the high commissions. Those fees can suck the life out of the rate of return and a fast talking salesman can make them sound so good. We are in the process of getting my wife out of one and they don't make it easy.

From: Dale06
02-Feb-22
Beendare, if you hire an investment adviser or manager, and allow him/her to put you in annuities, thats on you. I’ve had an investment manager for over 30 years. I or my wife approve all transactions before they get executed. He calls us with options and recommendations and we decide whether to proceed or not. He has never suggested an annuity. I’ve said before, I do not know what he charges us. We are concerned with the “net” and it has been very good. He has access to and the time to examine many investment options that we would not see without him.

From: Beendare
02-Feb-22
Dale, any broker calling you with "Ideas" is raking a commission, fine if he has beaten the market....VERY few do.

Not all Annuities are bad...you can buy them direct from Vanguard....just saying, beware these can be a very high commission check to your advisor as evidenced by the long lock in period. [the advisors here will back me on this if they are honest]

Many of the financial planners are essentially salespeople. NOT all.... and its worth looking for one thats not. Many just plug your money into pre determined portfolio allocations by your age group following typical portfolio designs which you can get these yourself on every online investment company if thats the route you want to take.. I have a couple buddies that have done very well doing just that.

I'm not disparaging brokers....just pointing out this is not rocket science.You can do this. A no brainer strategy if thats what you want is Dollar cost averaging into diversified funds. The stats show that this has beaten a huge % of Hedge fund and other investment advisors over the years....without the fees. Spend a little more time understanding trends and reversion to the mean........and you can do extremely well.

From: Grey Ghost
02-Feb-22
When you think about it, annuities are a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation for the insurance companies who offer them. They are a perfect hedge to their life insurance policies. There's a reason insurance companies are among the most profitable companies on the planet. The odds are always stacked in their favor, just like a casino.

Matt

From: deerhunter72
02-Feb-22
GG, I agree 100%. I won't go so far as to say they are crooks, a business seeks to make money, but your comparison to casinos is spot on. My wife is a teacher and until recently her only option from her employer was a 403b sponsored by AXA(now Equitable). It has been better than nothing but the slimy rep lied to us repeatedly about the fee structure a few years ago. It was a waste of time, but I did file a complaint against him with FINRA.

From: TRnCO
02-Feb-22
As Suzy Orman says, "Investments and investments, and insurance is insurance, don't mix the two."

From: SDHNTR(home)
02-Feb-22
Annuities make sense for a very small percentage of investors. Yes, in my opinion, they are largely oversold. Usually on a commission basis, but there are also some fee-based iterations available now too. They are emotional investments. Some people don't care about the cost (assuming they are properly informed), they want guaranteed income and they can't stand the thought of their potential for retirement income being linked to the volatility of the stock market. I won't universally bad mouth them, but like anything else, you should know what you are buying and why you are buying it.

From: Grey Ghost
02-Feb-22
I wonder how many billions of investor's money wind up in the insurance company's coffers, when the investor dies before the term of the annuity contract is up. I think you'd have to live to around 135 years old to ever see your entire principal amount with most 'lifetime' annuities.

Matt

From: SDHNTR(home)
02-Feb-22
GG, that's only if you annuitize, which rarely happens with variable annuities nowadays. With more modern annuities and living benefits, you can realize income without having to annuitize and don't lose control over your principal. I'm not advocating them, I'm just stating that what you mentioned is really a thing of the past with most annuities used today.

From: Jaquomo
02-Feb-22
I am one of those who did invest some money in an annuity. I knew exactly what I was getting into, did the research, and found a really good one (lifetime balance grew at 6% a year, more if the market was way up). 2008 scared the hell out of me with a relatively short timeline to retirement. I wanted a guarantee of some lifetime income to supplement SS if the market did a few more 2008 collapses, especially early in my retirement. So I rolled over what was a pension lump sum from a former company into this annuity with a much better return, added some to it, and I could draw from it anytime instead of waiting until age 70 (per the pension stipulation)

Hindsight is 20/20. That money would have appreciated more in the market over that period, but like I said, 2008 spooked me. Nobody knew what would happen, nobody knew Trump would enact the policies he did. At the time, we had Obama and the Dems in power, and I had little faith in their fiscal responsibility and the reaction from the equity markets.

So now I'm drawing from it, and coupled with my SS, not only do we live very well, but I have a couple thousand left over every month to roll back into our mutual funds. I will regain my principal in 9 years (from when I started drawing).

Yes, inflation is also a concern, but I'm not sorry I did it. Nobody knows what will happen with the market in 20 years. In 9 years when my wife draws from her SS it will more than compensate for any inflationary pressures, plus she has a Federal pension too. Her pension goes right into our portfolio now, as well.

We have three paid-off houses in a hot real estate market, a nice fat diversified investment portfolio we don't have to touch besides adding to it, and every month that annuity deposit drops in and makes me smile. Doing ok considering I was totally broke and in debt at age 40, and retired on my 60th birthday.

But I totally agree that annuities are not for everyone, and there are some scammers out there who overpromise and under deliver. Buyer beware.

From: Grey Ghost
02-Feb-22
Nate,

I've never understood not annuitizing an annuity. Doesn't a T-note or bond provide about the same fixed rate of return, while preserving the principle? It's been a while since I looked into annuities, and decided they weren't for me. Maybe they've changed.

Matt

From: SDHNTR(home)
02-Feb-22
GG, I'll send you a PM.

From: Jaquomo
02-Feb-22
GG, if I had found a T note or bond in 2009 that guaranteed 6% plus a bump (with cap) when the market overperformed, I'd have jumped on it in a second. I did invest in a commercial REIT that payed a 6.5% dividend and seemed pretty solid, but my principal has declined about 30% since COVID bashed commercial and retail, a reverse split, and the IPO.

From: Grey Ghost
02-Feb-22
Lou,

I've had about 25% of our IRAs invested in a high yield bond fund. It has averaged around 7-8% since the 2008 crash. Granted it's mostly invested in junk bonds, so there is a little risk, but it's been my "safe haven". Nate gave me a private education on how annuities have changed since I last looked into them. I still don't think they are for me, but it sounds like their structure has improved a bunch. I'm glad your's has worked out for you.

Matt

From: Nicostly
10-Feb-22
Stock markets tend to collapse when a crisis occurs. But I believe that it is not necessary to withdraw funds and stop trading at this time. On the contrary, the market becomes profitable again after the departure of weak players, and you can get superprofits during the stock price growth. I learned this on https://www.earnforex.com/forex-e-books/, and this manner of behavior has already allowed me to earn hundreds of thousands several times. So I continue to stick to this strategy.

10-Feb-22
I am in my mid 70's invested since I was 29, and retired at 58. Yes I believe in the mattress fund, and standard savings etc, but the market, if your not too greedy, can make you money, it has for me,,,,,,,,

Although now, there is money to be made, there always is, but its up to you, to stay on top of it, know what you own, and have a relationship, with your advisor........

I am afraid, that Inflation is here for a few years. However I am surprised how little gold or silver, has increased in value, which puzzles me,,,,, They are both over sold, but some, in the portfolio does not hurt.

Our market has not "collapsed" really since 29. 87 and 98, were not good, but it did not collapse....... The inflation has been coming. Trump spent too much, in many ways, here comes the spend Commando Biden, and its exactly what we did not need. I knew once the stimulous checks were coming out, it was going to be trouble.....

Biden now has put it in the Federal Reserves' hand, except they are going nothing, and I do not see it at all. The Democrats have their head in the sand, still believing good job reports and wage increases are good, yet they refuse to adjust inflation.

Biggest cause of it all, is the war on fossil fuel. They want green energy, which is not going to happen, and you should just suck it up..... I do think, that they might have to make corrections. No reason we should not be energy independent. I see oil going to 115 a barrel by summer.....................................

From: Beendare
10-Feb-22
I'm raising a little more cash from this current market rip today and tomorrow.

I don't advocate trading stocks........the tax consequences kill you. My son has been trading and he has had some huge gains in Moderna, [I think he said 400%] Pfizer, Nvidia, etc that he sold last year....but its funny to hear him talk about the taxes incurred from the sales. That Nvidia currently has a big fat covered call spread ....but I think the stock can be bought cheaper.

You can use the trading of losers and offset with some gainers to be tax neutral...or rotating from sectors you don't want to be better positioned. I think I can rotate into some good long term holds at a cheaper price later this year.

If not, then no sweat....I just get a mid single digit return in the meantime and I'm good with that while still holding a lot of cash. If the market dips, I buy some good stuff at a discount and hold it which typically results in big gains.

From: Grey Ghost
10-Feb-22
"I'm raising a little more cash from this current market rip today and tomorrow."

Which market did you see "rip" today? Did you mean "dip"?

Matt

From: Beendare
14-Feb-22
Matt, it was up in the first couple of hours…probably due to so many being short…..then it dropped off a cliff.

Sagging more today. I cant predict the future…but typically markets drop more on interest rate rises…then recover some months later. A lot of that selling is in…its the selling for a huge Biden boo boo that Im worried about…and that can happen in multiple categories. I think the Odds are fairly high.

From: Bowoman
22-Mar-22
I am very glad that I have a good friend who always guides me in this field in order to not make stupid decisions because I don't understand it at all. He always tells me what and when to do it. I am more a gambler player but who knows the limits and I am very good at controlling myself so I don't lose a lot of money. Plus, I am playing only online on this site https://wolfwinnercasino.com/ as it offers a lot of bonuses that are best for beginners and also has a fast withdrawal which is very important for me.

From: KHNC
22-Mar-22
Its looked pretty damn rough for the last month in my opinion. But probably not for the stock geniuses in here.

From: bigeasygator
22-Mar-22
Seeing as the vast majority of the money I have tied up in the market won't be touched for about 15-20 years at the earliest, a one month dip is of little consequence to me.

From: KsRancher
22-Mar-22
It looked rough in March of 2020. But you could either sell and cut your losses. Or buy more and make that much more on the way up. Just like buying land in a down market instead of selling in it.

From: Stix
22-Mar-22
Prior to retirement in 2018 I was 100% in the market. The gains enabled me to retire at 55. Since retirement I'm totally out of the market, and heavily into Series I bonds. They're now paying around 7.5%. I could have made alot more if I stayed in the market, but I dont need it and I'm content, and living well.

The love of money IS the root of all evil.

From: deerhunter72
22-Mar-22
Steve, I didn't believe you about the savings bonds so I looked it up. I had no idea they were paying over 7%. Makes me think we need to buy a bunch of bonds!

From: bigswivle
22-Mar-22
I’m screwed now, don’t want to invest in the market and real estate is ridiculous now. I’ll hang in to the cash and wait for the crash(hopefully just a slow down)

From: Genesis
22-Mar-22
FYI.......S/P index up about 7% at the bell today from the start of this thread

From: bigswivle
22-Mar-22
FYI.......S/P index up about 7% at the bell today from the start of this thread

Bowsite makes the world go around!!!

From: Stix
22-Mar-22
DH72, the new interest rate on I bonds will be adjusted in April. Predicted to be around 8%. I was always told +8% is the gold standard for investing.

From: thedude
22-Mar-22
Stix, that would have made sense when inflation rates were 2%. With 7-15% inflation your I bonds are worthless. This might change in a year if inflation gets controlled.

From: Aspen Ghost
22-Mar-22
Not at all worthless dude if other options performing worse.

From: blacktail
22-Mar-22
Lets go Brandon

From: Lewis
23-Mar-22
Always remember Pigs get fat and Hog’s get slaughtered lol Good luck Lewis

23-Mar-22
ibonds are only paying 7% because of sky high inflation so it is basically a zero percent return after inflation. the base rate actually is 0 and the rest is due to the inflation rate. you are also limited to buying 10k per year in ibonds and you really cant use them for current income.

From: Grey Ghost
23-Mar-22
In the 10 year period between 2011 and 2020, the S&P 500 averaged nearly 14% annual returns. During that same period I bonds averaged less than 3%. Using the current hyper-inflation period to advocate for I bonds as a long term investment strategy is a little short-sighted, IMO.

Matt

From: Stix
23-Mar-22
My point is that during an economic downturn, which we are in, I bonds are one of the only investments that are close to neutral territory as far as yields. Their yields are adjusted for inflation rate for the past 12 months is 8%. So far YTD, the S&P is down~10%, So yes, it may not truly keep up with inflation, but if you were invested in S&P you would be down ~18% adjusted for inflation, whereas the I bonds are down <1% adjusted.

It is being shortsighted, but in a spiraling economy, you have to be shortsighted. especially in my case where I retired at age 55, 4 years ago. Since I retired all my investments are in fixed income and inflation protected annuities. I could care less if the market goes up or down. Inflation also has far less of an impact on me.

I had enough to retire in 2018, and my strategy allows me to have approximately same buying power throughout my retirement. I'm not interested in capital gains anymore. It's my time to reap the benefits of my agressive investments leading up to retirement, not to pay a financial advisor's salary.

From: Beendare
23-Mar-22
Lets look at the Tea leaves as I think there are a lot of buy the dip guys that have never been through a market cycle like this; 1) Gov posted inflation at 7.9%....last time it was that high 40 or so yrs ago the interest rates were 13%. 2) War 3) Political policy; Essentially we have an administration that is ignoring massive inflation and focused on other agendas. Thus, no solutions in sight. 4) Energy; The world is starting to realize we have been focused on Social issues and taken our eye off the ball- there will need to be some serious and expensive changes to right these wrongs of past policy. Point is, it will be a drag going forward. 5) Supply chain still mess and will be worse in the future due the the realization that counting on world JIT supply is a bad idea. Made in USA will be more important, but also more expensive. 6) many more problems; internet rate rises, Dollar devaluations, etc.

Goldman says its a 35% chance we will go into recession. With the Issues above, I don't see how its not 100% we go into recession. Currently its still buy the dip....when it should be sell the rip. It will probably take a year for the reality to take hold, then it will get progressively worse for the equity markets and small businesses. The companies with no earnings will of course get slaughtered.

Ask yourself; what happens when the folks that bought a home in the last 2 years suddenly have no equity?

Don't shoot the messenger.......

From: Mint
30-Mar-22
If you are going to panic at every down turn in the market then you shouldn't be in the market. No broker can time the market so i invest for the long term and it has worked really well for me. My average return on my vanguard portfolio over tens year from 2/28/12 is 13.60%. Five year return is 12.20%, 3yr return 14.10%, one year 8.30% What has me worried is that Biden and Harris are completely clueless and the Fed is now a joke.

30-Mar-22
Down turns create buying opportunities. Millions of dollars are to be made, for those willing to be in it for the long haul.

From: Grey Ghost
30-Mar-22
The markets have been on a nice bull run lately. They're only 5-6% below all-time highs, with lots of good buys still out there. I've been slowly adding positions to my portfolio, mostly value stocks with good balance sheets and plenty of cash, and pay good dividends.

"Be greedy when people are fearful......"

Matt

From: Dale06
30-Mar-22
Mint, good post above.

From: Dale06
30-Mar-22
Asked above- “What happens when people that bought a house in the last two years have no equity in their house?” If they have/want to sell in the short term, they lost money. If not, they have a place to live, make payments and build equity. The alternative is rent and build equity for the owner of the dwelling.

From: grossklw
30-Mar-22
Agreed on that Dale- this isn't the same signs as '08 in terms of housing crash, it may flatten out some but it's not going to drop by 30%. The dollar is worth less, people are still fighting at the bit for property and banks are not giving out loans to McDonald's workers for million dollar vacation home at subprime rates. It's an apples to oranges comparison.

Inflation is rampant, so someone that bought their house 2 years ago will have more equity, they're paying for an asset with less valuable money than when they locked in that mortgage 2 years ago.

I'm continuing to lock in cheap debt on income producing assets while still slugging away at the stock market. I'm in for the long haul while keeping enough cash liquid.

From: Matt
30-Mar-22
"Prior to retirement in 2018 I was 100% in the market. The gains enabled me to retire at 55. Since retirement I'm totally out of the market, and heavily into Series I bonds. They're now paying around 7.5%. I could have made alot more if I stayed in the market, but I dont need it and I'm content, and living well."

I retired last year at 51 and my money manager at Morgan Stanley cautioned strongly against the traditional investment advice of re-balancing one's portfolio away from equities and towards bonds for early retirees. His thesis is, while may have been sound advice for people who were retiring at 65 and only expecting to live until 80, it could potentially result in people who retire at 50-55 and live to 90 running out of money prior to their deaths.

In terms of liquidity, we are ~98% in equities although we have shifted a bit more toward value/dividends than growth.

As stated above, generating a 7.5% return today is flat/negative once inflation adjusted.

From: Chubbs34
30-Mar-22
I'm 36 and planning to retire at 55 God willing. Putting 15% into retirement, working on paying off the house next. Only challenge will be we were blessed with a special needs child, and its tough to determine what support she will need as she grows up. We have an ENABLE acct set up for her now to help in the future for any large issues, but for now we cashflow any expenses.

Good for all you that retired when you wanted and could!! If you have solid advice outside what my wife and I are doing I'd love to hear it!

From: David A.
30-Mar-22
We are entering electric vehicle and electric energy storage age. My advice is to invest in Tesla, but regardless of your investments just remember time in the market consistently beats trying to time the mark - this has been back tested over and over again and is not one man's pet theory. It does require intestinal fortitude certain years. Any serious investor at whatever stage you are in of your life needs to understand the power of compounding interest. Google "Einstein's Eighth Wonder of the World". When you get your investment snowball growing exponentially, it is a beautiful thing...

From: Matt
30-Mar-22
My only thought is, in this current high inflation environment, I would not pay down cheap mortgage debt any faster than required. Put that money into equities. When inflation is approaching double digit rates and your mortgage interest rate is likely 3-4%, delay paying that back now and use inflated future dollars to do so.

From: Grey Ghost
30-Mar-22
"Any serious investor at whatever stage you are in of your life needs to understand the power of compounding interest."

Worth repeating ^^^^^

Historically, the stock markets have averaged around a 10% annual return (not adjusted for inflation). With compounding interest, that means your stock investments should double every 7 years, without adding any principle. So, under normal market conditions, a $10K investment today would be worth $80K in 21 years. If you periodically add to your investments, your nest egg grows even faster. Exponential growth is truly a wonderful thing, especially if you start investing early in life.

Matt

From: midwest
30-Mar-22
Agree with Matt on not paying off cheap debt when those extra payments could be invested instead. I don't care what Dave Ramsey says.

From: Norseman
30-Mar-22
And by all means make sure you have a high ESG rating!

From: Chubbs34
30-Mar-22
Good point on the cheap debt part. To be honest, I cant stand having payments, yes a bit Dave Ramsey thoughts. I max out 401k and IRAs, what else can I invest in for retirement?

From: Jaquomo
30-Mar-22
Chubbs, think of those "payments" as low interest investment contributions. I took out a reverse mortgage on one of my houses six years ago, used the money to supplement our income for a few years before a big annuity and Social Security kicked in. It was not taxable and kept my reported AGI just above poverty level to qualify for basically "free" Obamacare until I could get Medicare (Hey, I didn't make the rules...). Plus, I could keep my investments intact and rolling through the bull market.

Now, I could easily pay off the balance and not make a big dent in the portfolio, but at 2.4% interest, it makes no sense. It's cheap money that won't come due until I sell the house, and with the real estate market so hot here, my equity is far outgaining the interest accruing on the balance owed.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
^^^^ Also known as leveraging debt.

Matt

From: deerhunter72
31-Mar-22
We did the whole Dave Ramsey thing several years ago, went to the studio to do the "debt free yell" and literally bought the tee shirt. In fact my wife still carries her envelopes with cash. I don't agree with everything he preaches but he is spot on about being debt free, there's nothing like it. We were in our 30's with zero debt including the house, maxing out retirement accounts. Seven years ago we moved and wrote a check for our current home, pretty cool feeling. A couple of years ago I did the unthinkable and took a cash out mortgage on the house to buy 50 acres for hunting. It was a good buy in the exact right spot and it is already worth a lot more than we paid for it so it has turned out to be a good investment. But now I have a mortgage again and I can't stand it, even at 3.5%. We have backed off retirement savings to pay off this loan ASAP, nine months to go to be back in the black. I know that financially it would make more sense to be plowing this money into the market, but I won't stop until it's paid off. Plus, we already have a good amount compounding in the markets. That's my perspective on "cheap" debt.

From: Teeton
31-Mar-22
Mutual funds up from this time last year. Oil stocks you can't loose on, just about ever. Wish I had more oil stock!! With the war and U.S. looking to send natural gas off to europe to replace Russia NG, I say that going to look good also.

From: JohnMC
31-Mar-22
The only two stocks I can think of I ever lost everything I put into them were oil stocks. A couple smaller companies but publicly trade. My Father in Law was bitching about the money he had lost in them when oil prices fell. I thought now the time to buy them while they are down. Oil prices did not come back up but stayed low and neither recovered and went bankrupt. Luckily I only bought a few thousand between both of them. Point being you can loose on oil stocks. Not saying don't buy them just lots of diversification.

From: Jaquomo
31-Mar-22
My two big losers - Penn West, an Alberta oil production company that was once one of the 60 largest companies on the Canadian stock exchange. Totally tanked. Now owned by Obsidian Energy.

The other was a hot tech company I joined in 2000 at the peak of the tech boom. Tellabs. It had the 4th best performing stock of the decade of the 90s (behind Cisco, Dell, Intel). Admin assistants were driving Maseratis after multiple splits. Then WorldCom collapsed (our biggest customer), most of the tech sector collapsed, the stock, and my options, went from $77 to $3 almost overnight. What was a $2B+ annual revenue company now no longer exists.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
My biggest loser, recently, has been a Cathy Woods managed ETF. I bit on all the hype after her 3 ARK funds produced the highest returns of any during the Covid market recovery. I bought near the highs a year ago, now I'm currently down about 50%. It's only a loss if I sell, so I'm holding and hoping it recovers. Fortunately, it's a relatively small investment. It's been one of those "if it sounds too good to be true..." type lessens.

Matt

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
" It's only a loss if I sell, so I'm holding and hoping it recovers."

Matt, I gave that rationing up long ago. I'd get the hell out and put the $ in something that's positive. JMO

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
Dan, I hear you. I just hate pushing the sell button when I'm in the red this far. It's a very small percentage of my portfolio, so it's not a big difference maker either way. But you're right, I should have dumped it long ago.

Matt

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
It was hard for me to absorb too. I try to treat all the same no matter the size. As you know I'm not a day trader but also not a long term investor. I think they'd categorize me as a "swing trader". Guess I like action. LOL

Learning when to take profits before giving too much back and when to get out has been my hardest lessons. That and fail safe to avoid disasters. I had one in February or January. I'm stuck with miserable dsl feed (sometimes uploads as slow as .1 or .2 damn !)and sold all my 3x leveraged ETFS when they started turning. Except the sell orders never got through to Ameritrade. I had some life stuff going on, MRI and stuff and truck to fix etc..... when I got back in the game I checked my accounts and discovered I'd been semi slaughtered. I now make it a cardinal rule to set stops same time I buy.

And I now have a Verizon 150 g hotspot I use for solid internet hookups and double check my orders now instead of assuming they went through.

It's fun I enjoy it. Maybe fighting dementia as an old man LOL

Be well Hombre

From: Chubbs34
31-Mar-22
Thanks for the advice guys.

From: Mint
31-Mar-22
I had some Disney Stock in my IRA that I sold yesterday with a big gain. I think they are committing suicide going woke otherwise I wouldn't have sold.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
It's great to hear from you, Dan

It sounds like we have similar investing styles. I have my "fun money" account that I "swing trade" with, then we have our retirement accounts that are more long term. I rarely touch them.

There's definitely an addictive quality to trading stocks. I started dabbling with options a few years ago, but quickly decided that was a little too much "action' for me. LOL!

Matt

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22

bluedog's embedded Photo
bluedog's embedded Photo
Disclaimer for readers: I'm far from an expert, just a guy that trades.

.Options are too tough for me..... the 2x and 3x etfs are my favorites.

Here's an example of my system at work. (Top horizontal line is stop out, bottom horizontal line is buy in) Only trade of the day was a stop out...Bought SOXL on March 16 @ 34.665, stopped out at 39.57 today. Usually use 10 day ema as a stop but some like SOXL I use the 20 day ema as stop because of wild volatility. Since I trade mostly in a IRA and a Roth IRA I have to live with the 3 day buy/sell rule. However in IRA there are no tax implications until cashing out of IRA. (wish it was all ROTH LOL) Anyway after giving back a bit I ended up with a 14% gain on this trade... 2 weeks held

From: Norseman
31-Mar-22
Nice to see you post Blue! Hope all is well up Nort.

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
Thanks Norse..... been a hard long winter for an old man. Still haven't quite shaken that dang Lyme disease crap it seems. Did not even get on the ice this year. :( But...getting by.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
Dan, using a moving average for stops is a good idea, but it seems like a lot of work. Can you automate that, or do you set new stops daily?

Matt

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22

bluedog's embedded Photo
bluedog's embedded Photo
Again stress I am NOT a wizard! Advise anybody put in the time and develop the system that works for them.

I checked Mint's Disney sell and think he sold it perfect. Obviously he's more fundamental while I'm 95% pure technical. But we arrived at same conclusion.

Here's 2 more examples of what I do...

TQQQ was bought on 3/16 @ 46.33 and is still open. Top horizontal line is my stop and bottom line is buy point. Currently up 28.94%

TECL was bought 3/29 @ 65.22 and still open. TOP line is buy point and BOTTOM line is stop. Currently down 3.45%

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
Matt , I use StockCharts - $25 a month subscription. I never have more than 9 or 10 positions and do run the stop settings every evening, log on to Ameritrade and set market stops as desired. Easy to modify/replace.

I've tried to arrive at how to set stops forever...this is a recent change and I like it. When I want a tight stop, like on a new buy, I usually just use the close of the previous day. Seems like almost all of my good trades are good right out of the gate. I've also learned not to buy during first hour or hour and a half, let the day traders settle in.

I'm trying to develop system that requires nothing during the day from me so on nice days I can do stuff.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
I used to set stops daily, too. Then in Sept of 2020 I went on a month long elk hunt. Before I left, I set stops at a fixed percentage below the current share prices. You may recall, the markets had a short-lived correction of about 10% that month, then climbed right back up. Over half my portfolio sold off, while I was chasing elk. The taxes on that mistake stung a little...LOL! So, I'm still searching for a method that doesn't require daily input, too

Matt

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
Matt, I say your elk hunt stops worked perfectly. The market reversed and went up but it didn't have to. I think any stop is gonna get whipsawed sometimes. But it's priceless insurance.

It's been hard for me to go this way but I'm pretty sure for me it's the way to go.

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
Matt, if you hadn't been on a hunt would you have changed your stops?

Just my opinion...if you're gonna change your stop because it's gong to be hit, why'd you set it in the first place?

Still learning and hopefully always will be.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
Dan, yes, I would have changed the stops on a few positions with healthy short term gains, for tax reasons.

Matt

From: Beendare
31-Mar-22
I think we will look back on 3.25% mortgages in a few years and see it was a no brainer.

Bluedog, thx for posting…interesting. Is there an indicator in your system that would have you increase the $$ devoted to a trade?

From: badbull
31-Mar-22
bluedog, first of all thank you for your service and second for your advice along with others such as Grey Ghost regarding buying stocks. Had I known to do what you guys are saying maybe I would have avoided the complete loss of my Enron stock back in 2001. Badbull

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
beendare...not really, I've been know to increase a holding but lack records to show + or - results.

badbull...... I had my own disaster around your Enron time.. I'd run my account up over 450k with what I recognized as very dubious valued internet crap. I was 10 foot tall and bulletproof no stops. No skills and really a total FNG... I'd just sell when market turned. Then the fickle finger of fate threw a knuckleball. I got stupid and did a compound skull fracture, mri showed 2 brain tumors previously unknown .. anyway after surgery and gamma knife..maybe 8, 9 months later I'd come around enough to remember I owned stocks. After logging in my fat 450k was down over 95%. Yup.. fk me. LOL Should write a how not to self improvement book.. How to turn 450k into 18k.. lord , makes me nauseous just remembering, try to block it from memory.

Guess education isn't free.

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
Beendare...one more thought on size of holdings. If it's an etf or a fund I don't mind holding a large position. An individual stock, no more than 8 or 10% of my $. If a CEO gets caught with a goat or whatever.. a individual stock can crash and gap way down overnite. Not so a ETF or fund. They are collections of stocks or commodities so immune to that. Of course they'll go with tide of entire market up or down most times.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Mar-22
For those who don't recognize bluedog's handle, I suggest you pay attention. He's one of the Bowsite's classics, back when Bowsite was in its hay day. We could use more of him.

Matt

From: badbull
31-Mar-22
bluedog, Yes, education is not free but in my case firing my "money manager" after my sudden loss (figgering that I could learn to do as well as him) allowed me to learn to do my own investing. For me that has been a smart move as the information is out there if you put out some effort. I think his thread has developed into an interesting one. Badbull

From: bluedog
31-Mar-22
"He's one of the Bowsite's classics," yeah kind of like a 51 Studebaker or a 57 DeSoto.... LOL

From: Matt
01-Apr-22
“ But now I have a mortgage again and I can't stand it, even at 3.5%. We have backed off retirement savings to pay off this loan ASAP, nine months to go to be back in the black. I know that financially it would make more sense to be plowing this money into the market, but I won't stop until it's paid off. Plus, we already have a good amount compounding in the markets. That's my perspective on "cheap" debt.”

“ Dan, I hear you. I just hate pushing the sell button when I'm in the red this far.”

You both would be smart to take the emotion out of investing - it causes people to make bad decisions because they “feel good”.

From: deerhunter72
01-Apr-22
Matt, I'm well aware that being emotional about investing is not good. Anyone with money to invest needs to have their own comfort level. If you don't have the stomach for the ups and downs then the stock market is not the place to be. I don't care about the ups and downs, but I do "feel really good" about not having a mortgage, but that's just me. A lot of wealthy people use debt to their advantage, but I do believe that there is some truth in "the borrower is servant to the lender".

From: Stix
01-Apr-22
Who cares.... I retired with enough money to last and really dont care about anything else. I could care less about ant economic downturn, recession, or anything else. I annuitized everything and I'm content.

From: Grey Ghost
01-Apr-22
Who cares, Stix? I'm guessing anyone who hasn't comfortably retired with annuitized funds cares. But that's just a guess.

Matt

From: Mint
01-Apr-22
Depending on your 401k you might be able to take advantage of a nice loophole in the tax code. I contribute to a traditional 401k even though my employer offers a roth 401k deduction. My reasoning is once I retire I'm out of this hellhole called NY and probably moving to Tennessee, Kentucky or other low tax state. I figure I'm saving 8% in state taxes maxing out my 401k deduction. But my employers plan also has an after tax component which is different than a roth. I make after tax contributions and then at the end of the year my plan allows for an "in plan conversion to roth" where all I pay tax on are my earnings for the year and now all those after tax contributions become roth contributions. Only downside is Biden wants to get rid of this loophole in his Build Back Better plan so I hope it never passes.

From: Beendare
01-Apr-22
I had a similar story to Bluedogs except I wasn't running my own money back then. I had it with a "Highly rated" Advisory firm, Mackentyre and assoc. that had our money in 25 stocks; the likes of Enron, El Paso, and many more that are no longer in business.

That account kept dropping and they said, Buy and hold works. Then it dropped to 50% and we told them to sell....no, it will come back they said. We finally forced them to sell at Down 70%. It could have been worse, many of those companies went to zero.

Now I know their buy and hope strategy sucks.

That was when I decided I need to run my own money. I too own mostly ETF's broad market and actor specific....I'm currently only holding 2 stocks, GOOGL, TRTN. I will probably buy more Googl shortly [before the 7/1 split]

There are industries that I want to own going forward for long term growth like Semis, [SMH] but I'm going to wait as inflation and current market and politics point to tough sledding. FENY, XME, FMAT, XLB, XLE are all sectors that will hold value in inflationary times.

I might trade the China internet ETF and the Cannabis ETF's next week on news...but then I might already be too late to the party-grin

From: Stix
01-Apr-22
GG, my post was not meant for everyone, it was a reply to Matt who quoted me from my last post, that series I bonds are still a losing proposition due to inflation. In reality this is true, but I personally don't care because I have multiple income sources. Over 50% of my current retirement income gets banked.

From: pav
02-Apr-22
Mint, interesting idea on the conversion. My company also allows after tax 401k contributions (not Roth). I'm maxing out the pre-tax 401k (including catch up contributions) already, but could move some additional $$$ to the after tax bucket. Curious if that loophole would be a viable option for me though...as I already max out private Roth IRAs annually for myself and my wife?

From: Grey Ghost
02-Apr-22
Stix, sorry, I didn't realize you were responding to a post from weeks ago. Addressing that person would have helped.

"You both would be smart to take the emotion out of investing ..."

Matt, obviously you're correct. I took your advise, yesterday. I dumped Cathy Wood's crappy ARKG fund for a 46% loss. Then I used the remaining cash to buy call options on GDX, which are currently up 31% in just one day. I just set a tight stop on them, so I've locked in those gains, with plenty of expiration time left for them to climb even higher. Now that feels pretty good ;-)

Mint, perhaps I haven't had enough coffee this morning, but I don't understand how your employer's after-tax plan is much different than a regular ROTH plan. Do you mind explaining? Thanks.

Matt

02-Apr-22
"Mint, perhaps I haven't had enough coffee this morning, but I don't understand how your employer's after-tax plan is much different than a regular ROTH plan. Do you mind explaining? Thanks."

i don't think it is. i think he is just referring to after tax 401k contributions being reclassified as roth at the end of the year.

From: Matt
02-Apr-22
"Matt, obviously you're correct. I took your advise, yesterday. I dumped Cathy Wood's crappy ARKG fund for a 46% loss. Then I used the remaining cash to buy call options on GDX, which are currently up 31% in just one day. I just set a tight stop on them, so I've locked in those gains, with plenty of expiration time left for them to climb even higher. Now that feels pretty good ;-)"

I'll PM you my address so you'll know where to send the advisory fee. ;-)

Not to mention you now have some losses that can be used to offset gains if you want to re-balance anything within your portfolio.

02-Apr-22
Never bothered with the markets. Retired 21 years ago and during that time had a solid income nearly double what I earned in a 40-year career. Got out at 55 and alive. Just enjoy a comfortable living. Spouse is younger and were I to hit the high lonesome, she will be comfortable until we cross paths again.

From: KsRancher
03-Apr-22
As much as I agree with everyone that says if you can't handle daily, weekly and monthly dips you probably shouldn't be in the market. But just looking back at the QQQ. If a guy would have bought in 2000 at the all time high, you would have to wait 16yrs to get back to break even. That's a little tough to look at that and think that you would have been buying the dip for that long

From: Grey Ghost
03-Apr-22
Rusty, on the other hand, if you bought the Qs in 2015, your money would have more than tripled, now.

Matt

From: KsRancher
03-Apr-22
Yep. I guess I was saying that after looking at a chart. A person putting money in might have to stomach a dip/flat market for a LONG time. But yes, it will average out well when it climbs like it did from 2015-2022.

From: Matt
04-Apr-22
That is also why you diversify your portfolio.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Apr-22
I've also recently learned that passively managed index funds will almost always outperform actively managed mutual funds. In 2021, I think over 90% of mutual funds underperformed their indexed peers. It has to do with how the markets are structured. These days, a handful of mega-companies represent a greater percentage, and prop up each index. Unless a mutual fund is weighted similarly, which most aren't, it will underperform.

Matt

From: Mint
04-Apr-22
In regards to the after tax conversion to roth loophole. I max out on my traditional 401K plan which was $26,000 in 2021 since I am over 50. My compensation is over the limit so i can't make a roth IRA contribution but i can make an after tax contribution and then convert to a roth only paying tax on the income earned on the after tax contribution. There is a limit of $60,000 per year of contributions including company match so I'm able to contribute about $28,000 to the after tax part of my employer plan. So at the end of the year I end up with a traditional 401K contribution of $26,000, my employer maximum match and a Roth contribution through in-plan conversion of around $28,000. This is along as they don't fix the loophole.

From: Norseman
04-Apr-22
And by all means make sure you have a high ESG rating!

From: Snag
04-Apr-22
After all this if they unveil the digital currency and all that is proposed to be involved it won’t matter how you manage your money…because the government will do it for you!!!

From: ChuckY
11-Apr-22
Helluva beating today. The late business news today had the issue at hand. The Inflation data will get posted and word is it USA record bad. Hard to watch on a day like today. Chuck

From: keepemsharp
11-Apr-22
May ALL crypto currency please go to zero. Its only gambling.

From: Beendare
12-Apr-22
Hmmm Biden said that inflation peaked in December…….hoping the media would just parrot his comments ( straight from Obamas playbook)

Except, whoops- the CPI print is well above 8% and rising in March. Worst inflation in 40 years. That brings up 2 questions;

1) when will people take their earnings after tax and multiply by .08 to see how much they are losing due to this administration.

2) when will the avg Democrat see through this load of horse puckey the current Dem politicians are selling? Its costing us all a lot of $$$$

.

From: Matt
12-Apr-22

Matt's Link
US COVID stimulus has definitely driven domestic inflation, but the recent increase in the rate of domestic inflation has predominantly been caused by global macroeconomic factors. As examples, Germany had inflation of 7.3% in March (link) and the UK hit 6.2% in February (https://www.metro.us/uk-jobless-rate-lowest/?msclkid=afe2d6a5bac911ecb830ccc4cff847e2). By way of comparison, US inflation in March was 8.4%. That is ~1%-2% higher than a couple of other major global economies and is a more reasonable approximation of what may have been caused by the current administration's policies.

From: Dale06
12-Apr-22
Beendare, “when will the average democrat see through this horse plucky….. Unfortunately, for a large portion of them, probably never. They like to punish success, because they’re unwilling to get off their ass and succeed themselves.

From: Snuffer
12-Apr-22
Well there you have it...

24-Jun-22
I would like to thank all the panic sellers for enabling me to get several shares at a more than 20% discount.

From: Snag
24-Jun-22
Might check out I bonds too. 9.63%, inflation adjusted, compounded semi-annually, NO state income tax. Not bad for current environment.

From: SDHNTR(home)
24-Jun-22
The winners in this environment will be the ones able to block out the noise.

24-Jun-22
all those saying covid stimulus was not the root of inflation in the US and cite inflation in other countries are not acknowledging that all those other countries had massive covid stimulus also.

From: Jaquomo
24-Jun-22
I'm bummed that the market is starting to rebound. I'm about to close on the sale of a house and was hoping for the 28 range before I invest it. Oh well, I'll take what I can get.

From: SBH
24-Jun-22
SDHNTR for the win. Along with everyone else who doesn’t panic.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Warren Buffett

From: Beendare
24-Jun-22
I feel bad for the Buy hold guys…but this was predictable as I said earlier in the year.

Yes, Stocks are cheap….and they can get even cheaper.

Im in no hurry to jump back in. I look at future trends. Are things going to be better economy wise in another year? I don’t see how with the current idiots in charge.

Some industries should hold their own; oil, nat resources, Healthcare…but again, no hurry.

.

24-Jun-22
Completely agree with kentuckbowhnter. Just because every other country is as dumb as the USA and Canada, and the whole western world doesn’t mean that money printing and low interest wasn’t the number one reason for inflation, by far!

We are in a worse financial position than we were in the 1970’s when inflation took off and stagflation set in. It was brought back under control with a 13+% fed rate because the federal government could afford the high rate on their own debt. Debt to GDP was only 35%, now it’s 135% and they are still printing money, it hasn’t stopped. As far as I can see a 3% to 5% fed rate won’t stop an 8+% inflation rate it never has, has it? Can anyone give an example when it has?

24-Jun-22
I have been in the market for the long haul, about 35 years so far. Great times.

24-Jun-22
I have been in the market for the long haul, about 35 years so far. Great times.

24-Jun-22
Inflation started by the zealots keeping the economy shut down 18 months longer than they needed to.

So Supply was strangled.

Then the same Marxist zealots juiced the economy with printed free money. THEN!! As if that wasn’t bad enough. Paid people to stay home, digging the supply side hole deeper.

So then with everyone at home with free cash, demand for EVERYTHING skyrockets. When demand outstrips supply, Inflation occurs.

But for some reason everyone has already forgotten that the incompetence started with the 3 yr Covid lock downs.

And they are pleased that no one is tying this back to Covid.

Because it took Civil disobedience to remove the mandates. Other wise we would still be locked down. So thank Joe Manchin and the Covid protests or this would be even worse.

From: Matt
24-Jun-22
"And they are pleased that no one is tying this back to Covid."

That may be one of the oddest takes I have read on this site - of which there have been many.

24-Jun-22
What do you need me to clarify for you Matt

24-Jun-22
"And they are pleased that no one is tying this back to Covid."

That’s called the truth. Our Canadian debt was doubled during Covid. We had a greatly lowered supply of goods and a giant increase in money supply, way more than we needed in either country and we now have inflation. How could we have known that would happen?! And now we won’t be able to get it under control any time soon without paying a huge price.

From: bigeasygator
24-Jun-22
Completely agree with kentuckbowhnter. Just because every other country is as dumb as the USA and Canada, and the whole western world doesn’t mean that money printing and low interest wasn’t the number one reason for inflation, by far!

Spot on Mike. Monetary policy has been far too accommodative for far too long…

In a series of tweets, Mr. Trump said, “The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt,” adding that “the USA should always be paying the the lowest rate.” Mr. Trump continued to criticize his handpicked Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, saying, “It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing.” - September 2019

24-Jun-22
But, bigeasygator it certainly wasn’t just a Trump phenomenon, he simply kept it going and Biden put easy money and low interest rates into hyper-overdrive during Covid out of either stupidity or incompetence, not sure which is worse. Biden could have at least begun to correct the problem mid 2020, especially during a time of restricted supply of goods, but he choose not to and continues not to right now!

From: bigeasygator
24-Jun-22
And Trump was pressuring (and succeeded) to get the Fed to lower rates prior to the pandemic when, in his words, the economy was roaring. Lots of accommodative monetary policy being pushed for a long time (yes, before Trump as well).

25-Jun-22
Biden should be giving Manchin the medal of freedom for saving Biden from himself. Stopping the 3rd wave of spending

But let us not forget. Millions of people were calling for the Covid shut downs to end 18 months before they finally admitted they were wrong. (Studies showed the lock downs and masks did nothing to stop Covid).

They had the FBI on terrorists parents. Had kids locked out of schools. They listened to that hack Fauci who if given a chance would lock us up again.

Free money has been going on for too long and eventually had to be reconciled.

But It was their Marxist tendencies that really drove us off the cliff. Again we should be thanking 2 democrat senators for saving us from further damage.

From: Matt
25-Jun-22
"What do you need me to clarify for you Matt"

The definition "no one" to start.

25-Jun-22
You got me Matt. Should have written (many) . Not “ no one”

It’s frustrating to me that it seems that many have appeared to let them off the hook for demolishing children’s education, mental health, and the economy. Because the Marist elites knew better than the peasants who actually ended up being correct after all.

From: tenpoint
25-Jun-22
60 years old still contribute max deductions to 401 k have not lost a dime the day Biden was elected changed all stocks to stable value fund saw it coming will go back to stocks in 2024

From: SDHNTR(home)
25-Jun-22
People who harbor very strong political convictions, on one side or the other, make lousy long term investors. The market cares not one bit about your politics.

From: Beendare
26-Jun-22
Goldman is predicting a pretty hefty relief rally.

I don’t see how this situation can be resolved quickly. It seems to me there are more shoes to drop…but I’m just a working stiff and not an economist.

This current US admin- along with Obama and Trump- don’t understand budgeting and being fiscally conservative. Obama and Biden ( actually the same admins) spend on Social issues. Trump used his mantra, spend money to make money. These politicians think they can spend whatever they want.

We have inflation with the next phase being folks clamoring for higher wages….which will exacerbate things. The Biden admin will jump on this wage/unionize bandwagon using Corporations and “the rich” like Hitler used the Jews as his bad guy. ( They always have to have a bad guy)

I just don’t see a quick resolution….and if there is some catastrophic event things will go sideways in a hurry. In a big sucking downtrend, very few businesses aren’t affected.

I’m really trying to identify an investible trend here moving forward….

I think if we get a decent bump over the next month 8 will jump back into the inverse ETFs that have done pretty good as hedges over the last few months.

.

From: Matt
27-Jun-22
“ Most will throw grandma under bus for a buck.”

He is talking about people who throw themselves under the bus because they are too dumb to separate politics and finance.

And then there are those who can’t distinguish between themselves and their grandmother….

From: Babysaph
27-Jun-22
I made 19 percent for 30 years on my investments and also bought real estate. When Sleepy Joe took over I cashed out not wanting to loose what I gained.. at my age the long haul was over. I make my money on real estate. And my cash is tucked away. Cash is King. I feel bad for young people just getting started and sinking money in the stock market now only to watch it disappear .

From: SDHNTR(home)
27-Jun-22
I feel great about young people just getting started and sinking money into the stock market as they will grow substantial wealth over the next several decades.

From: Grey Ghost
27-Jun-22
I agree, SDHNTR. Heavily investing in stocks at an early age was the best financial move we've made. Our real-estate investments have done OK, especially recently, but they haven't kept pace with our equity portfolios over the long haul.

Matt

From: Babysaph
28-Jun-22
I made 19 percent for 30 years on my investments and also bought real estate. When Sleepy Joe took over I cashed out not wanting to loose what I gained.. at my age the long haul was over. I make my money on real estate. And my cash is tucked away. Cash is King. I feel bad for young people just getting started and sinking money in the stock market now only to watch it disappear .

From: Matt
28-Jun-22
"Cash is King. I feel bad for young people just getting started and sinking money in the stock market now only to watch it disappear ."

I feel bad for anyone who follows your advice.

Cash is depreciating at almost 10%/year based on the current rate of inflation, so it is probably the worst way to hold value right now. I have a couple of very conservative elderly friends who are 100% in cash because they think like you and their financial wherewithal has been significantly diminished over the past year.

On the other hand, putting cash into a depressed stock market should prove to be a great investment over time. My wife and I invested heavily through the 2008 recession and are in a very fortunate position as a result. By low, sell high.

From: Rocky D
28-Jun-22
Wow, Matt and I agree on cash.

Who says the moon and stars don’t align just right every now and then.

28-Jun-22
If the markets start dropping much faster than the rate of inflation then cash would be king. Especially if you are 70 yrs old and don’t have the time to make back the money. Having cash on hand to deploy in a year or two after a massive crash in the markets could be the smartest thing a person could do, or not, maybe this is the bottom, we don’t know do we?

From: Bake
28-Jun-22
I'm no financial expert, but I always thought like Matt a couple posts above, if you can invest heavily during a recession when prices are down, seems like your long term will greatly benefit.

I've been trying to hammer a couple accounts and buy as much as possible since they've been going down so far.

I'm 25 years from retirement and 9 years from my daughter's college. I can't help but think both longer terms will benefit from me buying now when the prices are low

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jun-22
Historically, the S&P index has averaged a 10.5% annual return since its inception in 1957. That includes crashes/corrections along the way. At that rate, your stock investments will double every 7 years, if you let them ride. Albert Einstein was correct when he said "compounding interest is the 8th wonder of the world."

Matt

28-Jun-22
Historically, the USA has never had an 8+% inflation rate, and no ability for the fed rate to go above 5% and 135% debt to gdp, have we?

And the S and p doesn’t always give a 10% annual return every year. There are 5 year periods where it gave a negative return, that is important to consider when you are 70 yrs old.

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jun-22
Sorry, I thought we were talking about young folks investing in the markets. Obviously, strategies change as investors age.

We’ve been heavily invested in stocks since the ‘90s. We always contributed the max we could to our SEP IRAs. We rode out the crashes in 2000 and 2008, without cashing out any of it. Yes, it was tough seeing our balances plummet, but they eventually recovered and continued to climb. We were both making decent money, so we simply stayed invested for the long haul. It proved the old saying “it’s all about time in the markets, not timing the markets”.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
28-Jun-22
Glad you missed me, Shawn. BTW, I specifically stated I was retiring from political threads. I don’t consider this discussion political.

Matt

28-Jun-22
Historically, the USA has never had an 8+% inflation rate, and no ability for the fed rate to go above 5% and 135% debt to gdp, have we?

And the S and p doesn’t always give a 10% annual return every year. There are 5 year periods where it gave a negative return, that is important to consider when you are 70 yrs old.

From: deerhunter72
28-Jun-22
Trying to time the market is a fool's game.

From: Beendare
28-Jun-22
“Historically, the USA has never had an 8+% inflation rate, and no ability for the fed rate to go above 5% and 135% debt to gdp, have we?” Good point Mike.

This is why historical returns can’t tell us the whole story for a next decade time frame. The last time these economic indicators aligned was the early 70s and if you look at The following decade after that the overall stock market was dead money. I get the impression there are many here like myself that don’t have a 40 year stock market time frame- grin.

I mentioned sectors, trends and in particular semiconductors early in this thread. One trend I think is worth watching is for semis to be in more and more of the products we use. Its estimated the semi industry demand will double in the next 10 years. Thats a trend we can make money on.

How you do it is up to you. Its awfully tough to pick rock bottom….or pick one no brainer winner. Its easy to dollar cost avg into a a basket of these companies over the next year, 2 years or more to capture most of that gain- BTW, this is my strategy.

I will do a couple individual names but most of my money will be in SMH, an ETF that owns a basket of hundreds of these companies.

Who knew you could get such good investing advice on a Bowhunting forum- grin

From: Matt
28-Jun-22
“How you do it is up to you. Its awfully tough to pick rock bottom….or pick one no brainer winner. Its easy to dollar cost avg into a a basket of these companies over the next year, 2 years or more to capture most of that gain- BTW, this is my strategy.”

Excellent strategy. Very few people get rich by correctly anticipating market highs or lows. Most get rich by steady investments over time into an index whose trajectory is up and to the right.

From: KB
03-Jan-23
Any thoughts heading into the new year? Are the guys that pulled out moving back in yet?

From: Dale06
03-Jan-23
I’ve done little except dump one stock that has underperformed for to long. I work with an advisor and neither of us are dumb enough to try to time the market. We invest in a mixed portfolio, re balance occasionally and take a long term approach to investing. Having said that, it’s pretty hard to be optimistic with the people running the country today.

From: Beendare
03-Jan-23
I’m DCAing in to some sectors like Energy and emerging markets through ETFs.

I’m holding back a chunk for tech and semis later this year…a ways from the bottom. When Apple tells suppliers to cut production- thats a telling indicator.

From: 12yards
03-Jan-23
I've been dumping some money back into my stock mutual funds on bigger pullbacks. Tempted to again soon. Like has been said, too hard to time the market. Warren Buffett always says buy when the masses are running scared. Will always pay off in the long run. With retirement a year away, I will keep a solid 4 years in cash.

From: goyt
03-Jan-23
12yards, I like the way you think. If we knew what was going to happen it would already be factored in.

From: Bowboy
03-Jan-23
I’m investing in CDs the rates are pretty sweet right now.

From: bigeasygator
03-Jan-23
If we knew what was going to happen it would already be factored in

That's called Efficient Market Hypothesis and I'm a big believer. It's also why you should view anyone that claims to know for sure what way markets are going with a very healthy dose of skepticism.

From: pav
03-Jan-23
Still buying stocks on a weekly basis!

From: Ollie
03-Jan-23
Not doing real good this past year but better than those who put their money in bitcoin.

From: buckhammer
03-Jan-23
Local credit union has a 6 month CD that is paying 5%. 50 grand to open. That is where my new money went.

From: Matt
03-Jan-23

Matt's Link
To sprinkle some perspective on the notion of investing in the stock market, I like to suggest that people look at the S&P 500 trend chart in the attached link (proxy for the broader market). The chart defaults to a 1 day view, but you if change that to 1 year (looks bad) then 5 years (looks good) and finally max which looks back to 1984 (looks really good), the results should be self-explanatory. If you only have a 1 year or shorter time horizon, the stock market probably is not the right place for you to put your money. But if you have a 5 or better yet 10 or 20-year time horizon, it has proven to provide solid returns over time.

And as an extension of that, retirees generally do not liquidate their portfolio all at once to fund their expenses, but rather we take it out a little bit at a time monthly/quarterly over decades. That makes it even easier to ride out the up's and down's with a buy and hold strategy. Think of it as dollar/cost averaging on the sell side.

Guys can try to time the market all they want, but in more normalized/less volatile times it was not uncommon for the market to generate ~ half its annual gains in just a few sessions each year. For those who jump in and out trying to time the market, it is pretty easy to miss most of the upside in and given year (not to mention suffering the potential tax consequences). Slow and steady wins the race.

From: Grey Ghost
03-Jan-23
I'm still selectively investing in specific sector-based ETFs, with a healthy percentage of cash set aside for major dips.

I'm also kicking myself for not investing in the structured notes that a financial fiduciary friend suggested to me a year ago. They were too new and complicated for me to pull the trigger on. Turns out they would have been my best investment over the last year. 20/20 hindsight, I guess.

Matt

From: HornHustler
04-Jan-23
Not that complicated if your already an options trader. Bond with an options trade. Risky. Was not hard to double the market with some well thought out trades. Plenty to be made in the bear market. Solid companies good dividends across many sectors. BH

From: fuzzy
04-Jan-23
I have no portfolio, just State retirement income, debt free, retired at 58 YO now self employed using accumulated life skills. Living within my means stress free and loving it. It doesn't have to be about money assets

From: Beendare
04-Jan-23
“I'm still selectively investing in specific sector-based ETFs, with a healthy percentage of cash set aside for major dips.”

Agreed, good strategy.

I get the argument for S&P…but I find looking at sectors that will outperform in the 1,3,5 year time frame does a lot better.

Example; lots of big Software Co’s out there with very high valuations (30+ PE’s). Earnings estimates are notoriously slow to adjust… many of these are way overvalued and could really tank if earning come in bad qtr after quarter. Sure a company like NOW is ubiquitous and used by many companies…a proven and great product…but it has no PE…still loosing money. Will it be a winner in 10 years…probably…but its risky to pay too much for anything…and I think the S&P qualifies as overvalued right now.

On the contrary; There are energy co’s trading at low single digit PE’s and paying very good dividends…IMO, a much safer bet for the next year or so anyway…. I own some for a couple years now, and nibbled..but will be piling in if oil goes below $70 or they dip another 5-10%.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Jan-23
Beendare, we think alike. My energy sector ETF has been my most heavily weighted ETF in my portfolio for almost 2 years. Frankly, that position has caused my portfolio to outperform all of the major indexes by a significant amount.

Matt

From: KB
04-Jan-23
Are we talking XLE? It’s been a good ride indeed. And the dividend is nice.

Any other favorite ETFs out there? Or specific sectors with the conditions we’re in now?

From: Beendare
04-Jan-23

Beendare's Link
Yeah, trends are good. Take a look, I just Bought some SQM (PE7, div 9%, country and labor risk but very low valuation)

Good factual article on Zero Hedge on E V’s and where are all of the minerals going to come from at link

From: jjs
04-Jan-23
Been very conservative since Biden came in, still been a yo-yo but still on the positive side, still have to be ahead of the inflation and tax by 2% to have a gain.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Jan-23
KB, yes, XLE is my energy ETF.

Beendare, do you have a reason for investing in just one metal company instead of a ETF that focuses on all EV related metals, like EVMT?

Matt

From: Snag
04-Jan-23

Snag's Link
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1980

Might put some numbers in this calculator and see what you come up with.

From: Snag
04-Jan-23
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1980

From: Matt
04-Jan-23
“I have no portfolio, just State retirement income, debt free, retired at 58 YO now self employed using accumulated life skills. Living within my means stress free and loving it. It doesn't have to be about money assets.”

That is all good and well if your pension system is in good financial health. There are examples of municipalities cutting pension payments by as much as half due to financial issues (e.g. Stockton bankruptcy). That would be pretty tough on retirees without a plan B.

Edit: high inflation can have a big, negative impact as well depending on COLA features.

“I get the argument for S&P…but I find looking at sectors that will outperform in the 1,3,5 year time frame does a lot better.”

For sure, that was just one example to highlight the error in looking at short, discrete time periods to come to conclusions about the value of equities as an investment vehicle.

On the flip side, if one wants a set it and forget long-term investment strategy, the S&P 500 is broad/diversified. While it has been a few decades, a finance professor I had in grad school had done a bunch of work and demonstrated the S&P 500 index outperformed the majority of assets managers in the intermediate/long term.

For those of you who tout higher than market returns, are you netting the tax implications (short/LT capital gains tax) against those that or just quoting a gross return? Taxes are the hidden cost of an active management strategy.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Jan-23
Matt, I haven't done any short term market investments for over 3 decades. I learned the difference between normal income tax and capital gains tax very early on in my investing career.

Matt

From: 12yards
04-Jan-23
Another advantage to an S&P 500 index fund is I think you avoid all this ESG BS.

From: fuzzy
04-Jan-23
So far so good Matt. Debt free helps me be a bit more trusting. I don't need a lot

From: Beendare
05-Jan-23
GG, Every once in awhile I think I’m smarter than the market- grin

FWIW, I have done well by doing extensive research…and following a simple concept, “reversion to the mean”

That hurts me a little on high flyers that run way up as I prefer to lock in profits on steep run ups………but its made me a lot of $$ and it limits my market risk. Heck just look at a LT chart on Apple and then tell me the buy and hold strategy is better.

edit; I should clarify. I do not just buy stuff because its off 50%- thinking it will rebound. I look at charts and then reconcile with real time market conditions.

I used the software example earlier. Take CRM. Its been a good LT performer over many years…now its off big. They just laid off 10% of employees…and more importantly, businesses are pulling in their horns and not just throwing money at software right now. No way 8 buy a CRM here…but down the road, when there is light at the end of the tunnel for business it will rebound.

That reversion to the mean is powerful…but its critical to reconcile with both the market and sector conditions. .

.

From: bigeasygator
05-Jan-23
No way 8 buy a CRM here…but down the road, when there is light at the end of the tunnel for business it will rebound

Very difficult to judge when there's a light at the end of the tunnel IMO. Which is why I think the best strategy - particularly on a long term basis - is to continue to invest in a well-diversified portfolio. If stocks have further to fall, you will be lowering your cost basis for what is likely an inevitable bounce. It's really hard to predict the general trajectory of the market, which sectors will outperform others, and - most importantly if you're trying to make money off that information - where there are opportunities to generate alpha.

From: Grey Ghost
05-Jan-23
Beendare, thanks, but you kinda lost me with "reversion to the mean" and "LT chart". Technical analysis is voodoo to me. I'm more of a fundamental analysis guy.

Speaking of which, I checked out SQM, and I like it!! I couldn't find a single negative in their fundamentals or valuation. And their earnings are projected to go from their latest $2/share to $13/share in their next report in March. Wow! I don't see any reason not to buy some. Thanks for the tip.

Matt

From: Beendare
05-Jan-23
Im already getting too far in the weeds for the, “ THIS IS AN ARCHERY SITE GODDAMNIT” crowd…grin

I will ping you off line.

From: SteveB
05-Jan-23
Goldman Sachs is paying 4.26% on passbook savings right now. Hard to buy CDs and tie money up even short term when you can get 4.26% right now and have instant access if you need it. I thin we are still a good ways from the bottom. I have been buying some structured notes that go 12-17 months based on the S&P 500 performance with a buffer. risky but not as risky as the broad market. I think energy is a good play right now. It will eventually explode again.

From: HornHustler
05-Jan-23
90 day TBills looking great right now. Bh

From: ILbowhntr
06-Jan-23
Going back to work the end of January and already set up a 15% direct deposit into my investment account.

From: Dale06
06-Jan-23
Ilbowhunter, that’s a very astute first step. Spread it into a balance of investments and in the long run you should do great.

From: SBH
06-Jan-23
If you're under 50-55 years old.......all signs are to keep buying. Still choppy waters ahead and lots of paper loss but when everyone is running for the savings accounts it's time to put cash to work. Stay the course! History repeats itself.

From: fuzzy
07-Jan-23
I admire and applaud you all who understand financial markets and have worked, planned saved and prepared for later life. That was never in my tool kit of skills and interests. Luckily I found a workable alternative. Enjoy life fellas.

From: Rocky D
07-Jan-23
Times a coming soon for those with big balls and deep pockets to step in and throw some real cash at some solids and then wait for history to repeat itself!

From: jjs
07-Jan-23
You need to be in congress or senate to get ahead of this game, the market is too unstable with the debt and inflation, time to be in a defensive position in this market.

From: Mint
11-Jan-23
I could never time the market so I've always ridden out the lows. I'm thrilled that I was able to max out my 401K at $27K, get company matching contributions of a few points and then use the in plan roth conversion of after tax contributions to create a $35k roth. Since the index 500 fund expenses are practically nothing that's where I parked it. the great thing is now that republicans have congress the inplan conversion loophole won't be repealed.

From: Beendare
11-Jan-23
Everything is rainbows and unicorns right now with the January effect…we should all make money. We probably have a solid month or two of up….

The worry is recession and the corresponding downward revisions to Earning estimates which IMO is almost guaranteed for the S&P index stuff ( except oil) stuff like EEM I hold in taxable acct and will keep- it should hold up.

Going in and out of the market to hedge your risk is not the same as traders timing the market. I use the former especially in IRA accts and anticipate I will be in bonds by mid year……with remaining equities hedged in my taxable account.

.

11-Jan-23
The genius’s of the stock market were in a simple S and P 500 ETF until Dec of 2021, then they sold out and bought just the Energy Portion of the S and P 500! They made bank!! Anyone here like that? Any Financial advisors give out that advice?

The S and P 500 peaked at about 4700 in Dec 2021 then dropped to 3900 now. The Energy portion of it went up by 50% or more during that same time. The funny thing is that the mainstream media barely reported on it. I guess they don’t like Oil and Gas…

From: Grey Ghost
12-Jan-23
"The funny thing is that the mainstream media barely reported on it. I guess they don’t like Oil and Gas…"

I guess that depends on what "mainstream media" you pay attention to. Places like Fox Business Network and CNBC discuss the energy sector's performance almost daily. So does online investing sites like Zero Hedge, Marketwatch, and Motley Fool. Not everything is a conspiracy.

Besides, it doesn't take a stock market genius to recognize that oil and gas companies would do well with oil at over $100/barrel and gas at $5/gallon with strong demand. I piled into the energy ETF called XLE almost 2 years ago. It has propped up the rest of my portfolio.

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
12-Jan-23
About take some profits real soon and park a bunch into T Bills and wait out this pending Impeachment and market downturn. Wont be selling any small or large cap energy stocks. Bh

From: 12yards
12-Jan-23
"The worry is recession and the corresponding downward revisions to Earning estimates which IMO is almost guaranteed for the S&P index stuff "

Beendare, when do you think this will be "priced in". I was thinking since everyone (just about) thinks we are headed to recession and poor earnings, it might be close to priced in already. I suppose there is always room for it to be worse than forecast. But then there is also the possiblity of surprise to the upside as well. Again, timing is tough.

From: bigeasygator
12-Jan-23
The genius’s of the stock market were in a simple S and P 500 ETF until Dec of 2021, then they sold out and bought just the Energy Portion of the S and P 500! They made bank!! Anyone here like that? Any Financial advisors give out that advice?

Working for an oil and gas company, a tremendous amount of my financial future is tied to the performance of the sector (salary, bonus, stock options, etc) - so I'm pretty heavily exposed. With regards to my investments, I treat them as a hedge to the rest of my O&G exposure and diversify into other sectors.

Beendare, when do you think this will be "priced in". I was thinking since everyone (just about) thinks we are headed to recession and poor earnings, it might be close to priced in already

This is my opinion as well. The downturn we seen has been driven more by the impact of a potential recession than the impact from the change to working capital costs. Very possible we see a very slight recession and a hit to earnings and actually see stocks bounce because of it. Seems more and more people think this might be a soft landing instead of a hard landing.

12-Jan-23
Grey Ghost, I see news and advisors talking about it now, after, the increases. Very few were talking about when you needed to be dropping the tech heavy S and P 500 in Dec 2021 and going into the underpriced oil stocks to catch the gains. It’s easy in hindsight, and too late, when oil is $100 a barrel.

And yes, it’s very under reported in mainstream news and there is a definite anti-oil and gas bias. You’ve heard of the climate catastrophe coming up that they occasionally report on, all caused by the horrible oil and gas industry?

And good for you if you had the sense to ignore the bull and invest heavily in oil and gas 2 years ago. You’ve more than doubled your money! Most people didn’t and it was off the radar for many financial advisors. That’s why I asked who did, I was curious.

From: Will tell
12-Jan-23
I’ll be 72 next year. I have to start taking money out of my investments. I get to choose how much I want out and there is a minimum amount you have to take according to how much you have invested. If you invested at a early age with a financial expert you should be okay. I don’t believe the stock market is influenced by politics, I do believe it can be influenced by the small percentage of people who control 90% money.

12-Jan-23
ESG ratings for stocks are all the rage now and purely political.

From: bigeasygator
12-Jan-23
And good for you if you had the sense to ignore the bull and invest heavily in oil and gas 2 years ago. You’ve more than doubled your money! Most people didn’t and it was off the radar for many financial advisors. That’s why I asked who did, I was curious.

In my opinion I would avoid any financial advisor that suggests you invest a heavy amount of your portfolio into a single sector.

From: Grey Ghost
12-Jan-23
I don't know if any of you follow the Shiller P/E ratio of sectors and individual stocks. It's a more accurate way of valuation than the standard P/E because it eliminates fluctuations in profits during business cycles. The historic 20-year average Shiller P/E for the S&P is 26. Currently it's at 28.8. If history is any guide, the overall markets have a bit further to slide to reverse back to the 20-year average.

If you look at the Shiller P/E by sector, financial services is the only sector that is significantly lower than the 20-year S&P average. Considering that rising interest rates will benefit financials, I'm guessing that sector will outperform the rest in 2023.

Not that anyone should go all in on one sector. A well diversified portfolio is always the safest bet. But, If you're like me, and like to invest a bit more in individual sectors that you think will outperform during a specific period, you might take a look at financials.

Disclaimer: I'm just some dude squawking about investing on a bowhunting forum. Take my opinions for what they are worth.

Matt

From: Beendare
12-Jan-23
Yeah- just some dude here too ….but I have been studying this for decades

Mike- That is sector rotation investing- my chosen strategy like I previously mentioned. Example; I think something like EEM is a sector that should do well in the next 1-5 yrs ( country risk here- use stops)

I think a recession is only partially priced in, in other words, I don’t think its a steady ramp up from here. We are seeing the January effect, my bet is it doesn’t last until mid year. I think Analysts haven’t priced in a recession yet.

Why; 1) the fed is essentially telling us they will tank the economy and overpriced assets ( ie- the market) 2) Demand has fallen off a cliff, Ports clearing up- less goods coming in, just about every retailer cutting back on orders, RE, Car sales dropped like a rock, companies laying off, etc

When Goldman lays off a bunch of folks…thats telling us that some of the smartest folks on the planet think we are going into recession. I will lighten up my broad SP stuff ( in my IRA- non taxable) in the next couple months. I will keep oil stuff…but I dont expect returns like last year, probably no more than 10%. I own low PE stuff like SQM and will hold that and sell covered calls on some. I will hold my EEM LT but with tight stops.

From: bigeasygator
12-Jan-23
Why; 1) the fed is essentially telling us they will tank the economy and overpriced assets ( ie- the market) 2) Demand has fallen off a cliff, Ports clearing up- less goods coming in, just about every retailer cutting back on orders, RE, Car sales dropped like a rock, companies laying off, etc

IMO all of this is going to show up quicker in stock prices than the broader economy; which I think explains exactly what has happened to valuations over the last year. That is, all of these recessionary fears have been priced in and prices won't move much if we actually see a mild to moderate recession. But, that's the trillion dollar question. How much has it been priced in. Time will tell.

From: Beendare
12-Jan-23
True, time will tell but how anyone can think the market is perfectly priced into the future is foreign to me. If that were the case, the market would never have a wild swing.

Its all an educated guess...and there is risk involved in every asset class. There is no 100% safe investment.

The folks that had money in bonds for the last couple of years to avoid risk- most bond funds lost money though not nearly as much as the S&P.

The good news is we don't have to be geniuses to see trends that will succeed over a longer time frame.

12-Jan-23
“In my opinion I would avoid any financial advisor that suggests you invest a heavy amount of your portfolio into a single sector.”

That would depend how much you overall net worth is in the stock market and your time horizon for your investment. And how much you believe in your research, convictions and risk tolerance. Also If the overall markets are dropping the only way to make money is to be heavily invested in sectors that will outperform the market, like oil and gas has done for the last 2 years. Too much diversity in a bear market will get you negative returns. Lots of diversity looks so smart in a bull market, but it’s mindless, just buy an overall index etf.

A great financial advisor or smart investor will still make money in a bear market, above the rate of inflation.

From: Horn Hustler
12-Jan-23
The downturn from Feds rate increases from summer 22 are just now being felt. That lag is going to occur always has.

Still plenty of places and sectors to do well in.

Bh

From: fuzzy
12-Jan-23
Horn Hustler, 100 years is one heck of a long lag time? (Edit: I see that you edited your post so now I look like an ass. Lol)

From: Grey Ghost
12-Jan-23
I'm beginning to think Beendare might actually know a thing or two about picking stocks. The SQM stock that he mentioned buying on 1/4/23 is up over 10% since then. Not bad for 7 trading days in which the broader markets only rose about 2%. ;-)

I hope I didn't jinx him.

Matt

From: bigeasygator
12-Jan-23
A great financial advisor or smart investor will still make money in a bear market, above the rate of inflation.

It’s essentially unheard of for anyone to deliver alpha every year or in every. In efficient markets (and I believe our markets, while not perfect, are largely efficient) everything is essentially a bet, and people may have their rationale as to why their bet is right, but the asset price will reflect all available information so the only thing that will move that price is new info - and there’s no way to tell if that new info will be good or bad. This is the crux of Efficient Market Hypothesis. And the data backs up this fact. Active managers, over the long term, have historically under delivered against passive managers.

13-Jan-23
So gator, you must just put all of your money in index ETFs that cover the main stock markets and just let it ride out? Why even have a financial advisor?

Grey Ghost must not be too bright for doing what he did, quoted below:

“I piled into the energy ETF called XLE almost 2 years ago. It has propped up the rest of my portfolio.”

Kinda seems like active management to me, especially if he took the money from an S and P 500 ETF? Seems pretty smart too? Is piling in the same as heavily invested in a certain sector?

From: bigeasygator
13-Jan-23
So gator, you must just put all of your money in index ETFs that cover the main stock markets and just let it ride out? Why even have a financial advisor?

I put my money into a wide range of mutual funds, covering company types (eg, small cap growth stocks, etc), industries (eg, healthcare, real estate, etc), foreign markets (eg, emerging markets), and also index funds (eg, S&P, etc). Every few years I will look at where things are and rebalance my portfolio. As I don’t put much faith in active management and believe in EMH and Modern Portfolio Theory, I don’t use a financial advisor and aim towards a well diversified portfolio.

I have a question for you, Mike. You keep bringing up the performance of the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, over the last year. Your comments make it seem like it was pretty obvious that the sector was going to do well. Can you tell me why it was so obvious that oil and gas was going to do so well?

From: Horn Hustler
13-Jan-23
Oil has has been doing well for years and years depending on your goals. Have some small cap company stock that has been paying outstanding dividends for 30yrs and has never missed one. There was no better time to jump into the energy sector than 2020 depending what your other exposure in the market was.

Take a look at those energy ETFs starting say Feb 2020 to today. Bh

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jan-23
Mike, it's called sector rotation. For the most part, the economy moves in predictable cycles. The idea is to be overweight in strong sectors and underweight in weak sectors, depending on the economic cycle.

Sector specific ETFs have made this type strategy very easy. I own ETFs in every sector, and simply move money around in them as the economic cycles dictate. My energy sector trade 2 years ago was fairly predictable. I didn't expect it to last this long, but I'm happy it has.

It's not always a slam dunk, however. I didn't expect the communications services sector to drop as far as it has. Consequently, I got caught in an overweight position in that sector, and incurred more losses than I should have.

Overall, the sector rotation strategy has served me well. It keeps my brain in the game.

Matt

13-Jan-23
Jason, I would say that your portfolio is guaranteed to do well in a bull market and always give negative returns in a bear market. Not sure why you would do mutual funds instead of low cost ETF’s though that simply track the main stock markets? Looks like some active management on your part?

My investing advice comes from listening to many wealthy, smart hunters from all kinds of sectors, from technical people to big business owners, to board members of huge pension funds, even some financial advisors and from a variety of investing podcasts. Lots of podcasts while I drive and scout for critters, and I purposely pick ones that I disagree with to challenge my own bias. I thought the S and P 500 was overvalued at 4600, a heavy decline was coming and oil and gas stocks were undervalued. The political nature of anti-oil and gas investment, climate alarmism, mainstream news bias against it told me it was a great place to put your money. Their solid cash flow, high dividends and stock buy backs convinced me. I wish I had done it with way more money! I don’t have much after ridiculous Covid lockdowns crushed my outfitting business. Thanks for asking.

13-Jan-23
Matt, sounds like you are a smart active investor! Congrats!

From: bigeasygator
13-Jan-23
Oil has has been doing well for years and years depending on your goals.

I don’t have a chart in front of me, but I’m fairly confident in saying during the last 25 years or so, the broader market (use whatever benchmark you’d like) has outperformed oil and gas in all but a few years. Yes, there’s been a nice bounce in the last two years. But if you look at the 20 year period leading up to that point, the return of the XLE (as a data point) was essentially 0%. For context, the S&P 500 returned about 500% or so over the 20 year period leading up to the COVID related dip. In short, oil has been trash for a long time.

13-Jan-23
Matt, sounds like you are a smart active investor! Congrats!

From: bigeasygator
13-Jan-23
Jason, I would say that your portfolio is guaranteed to do well in a bull market and always give negative returns in a bear market.

Possibly, but you feel there are people that can find the bull market and generate a positive return every year then I’ve got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you :) (I kid I kid). I’m much more comfortable with a diversified portfolio that will balance risk and return.

Not sure why you would do mutual funds instead of low cost ETF’s though that simply track the main stock markets?

I just threw out “mutual funds” as a catch all. Yes, I am in ETFs where I can be.

The political nature of anti-oil and gas investment, climate alarmism, mainstream news bias against it told me it was a great place to put your money.

I’ve been in the business 20 years, and these forces aren’t new. And historically the industry has generated strong cash flows, high dividends, and lots of buybacks. They are primarily value stocks that, as the data has shown, have not generated much in returns for a long time. We’ve benefited a lot from the macro environment the last few years that’s for sure and it’s great to see the rebound from the COVID era lows. What are your sources prognosticating for oil and gas valuations over the next few years?

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jan-23
BEG, you got me curious, so I looked at the XLE 20-year chart. It actually returned roughly 350% between 2003 and it's all-time high in 2014. Then it went on a 6 year slide, reaching the low point in 2020 before the recent run.

Matt

13-Jan-23
My sources say these anti oil and gas forces are much stronger today than ever in history. Also, I had no idea that oil and gas has always generated strong cash flows, high dividends and lots of buybacks?! I thought it was a boom and bust type of industry with periods of time that it was the last place you would want your money? That you would want to manage when to be in it or not, a sector rotation kind of thing?

As for oil and gas over the short term, less than a year, it could easily go lower but then it will rebound and go much higher, probably into an energy crisis. Way more likely to go higher, over the long term, for oil, gas and mining of metals. I would want to be pretty heavily invested in these areas, hopefully you’ve already bought in at lower prices from a year or two ago and can buy more when the prices drop, hopefully over this year. The idiotic “non-green, not-possible-transition” will be driving these value companies way up over the longer term. Just my two cents.

13-Jan-23

From: bigeasygator
13-Jan-23
It actually returned roughly 350% between 2003 and it's all-time high in 2014. Then it went on a 6 year slide, reaching the low point in 2020 before the recent run.

Yup. There have certainly been boom and bust cycles. But that’s kind of the point. You need to time things to do well. Even in the recent run up of energy, you still needed to time things. But essentially if you compare the XLE to say the SPY over any time frame outside of the past six months to a year, the S&P has outperformed. And there was a LONG run where energy stocks returned zero growth when averaged out.

Also, I had no idea that oil and gas has always generated strong cash flows, high dividends and lots of buybacks?!

My company didn’t lower their dividend payment for nearly 80 years (until COVID). Pretty common with most of the industry. And cash flows have historically been strong in the industry, especially operating cash flows. It’s a pretty capital intensive business though. So despite the dividends and buybacks, still needed to pour a lot of money back into the business to maintain the status quo. All historically speaking. It kept valuations pretty flat. Even now with the windfall, most of that money is not going into growth, it’s going back to shareholders so I think there are long term questions about the industry’s ability to deliver cash down the road.

Way more likely to go higher, over the long term, for oil, gas…

The idiotic “non-green, not-possible-transition” will be driving these value companies way up over the longer term

Why do you think it’s going higher? Supply? Demand? Production and investment has been increasing (albeit much more moderated than in the past) and you’ve got people calling for some level of recession. So what forces do you think will push valuations higher? Asking genuinely. I don’t have an opinion one way or the other. I think things are more complex and complicated now than ever, so it’s very hard to even form an opinion as to which way things will go for the industry.

From: fuzzy
13-Jan-23
I can vouch for Matt being a smart a...... ctive investor. Lol

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jan-23

Grey Ghost's Link
"Why do you think it’s going higher? "

BEG, I found this recent article interesting. They poled 250 institutional investors on how they see the future of oil and gas.

Matt

From: bigeasygator
13-Jan-23
That’s a great reference point, Matt. I wonder if BCG will release a new one soon as that one is almost a year old. A LOT has changed in the industry in the last year. Some of the themes in that report are still a high priority, some are much less so. This was all published before the war in Ukraine. In short though, they wanted: more shareholder returns, more capital discipline, less emissions, more energy transition, etc - in short more of everything that are often competing priorities. All this against a backdrop of volatile commodity prices, investor activism, geopolitical challenges, societal pressures to reduce emissions, increasing use of renewables, peak oil demand, recessionary fears, increasing capital costs, etc. Like I said…it’s a wild time and I think there are just as many scenarios that could serve as headwinds to the industry as there are scenarios that provide tailwinds.

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jan-23
Sorry, BEG, I didn't realize the article was a year old. I did look at the date, but I guess I'm still getting used to the new year. In fact, I dated a check for 1/13/22 today. Ha.

I diid find it interesting that 85% thought natural gas will play a larger role in our energy needs in the near future. And that 66% felt that peak oil demand will occur by 2030. Like you, I wonder if those predictions have changed any over the last year.

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
13-Jan-23
Smart investors took their profits and divested in early 2020. They were some very good investment managers who hit it right on the button. Very very happy we went that route. Paid are taxes. Last two years have been very good for us. Not securing profits looking back now would not have seen market go from DOW 29k to 34k today, without enduring a 11,000 point fallout. Bh

From: Beendare
13-Jan-23
Matt, thanks for the kind words…..yeah I’m feeling pretty full of myself right now. The challenge now for guys in the same boat is what to let run and what to put a tight stop on. I typically cut stuff loose quicker in my IRA ( non tax) and tend to hold for at least a year or more in my taxable accts….with the one caveat- I stop stuff before it looses money. I have not always done that and it cost me dearly.

So for example; I bought TSM in my ira on a couple buys after I mentioned it here and its up about 15%. Now what? They produce 70-80% of the high end chips 5nm and smaller…eps up 78% last yr, great 5 yr outlook but their future eps projections and cap spending are lower. The stock is 40%+ off it high but I ask myself what is fair value?

Country risk, sector risk and a few more negatives….but its still probably worth $100 ($86 today, under 80 last week) its to be expected it will back and fill as its gone up big in the last month. Personally, I am not going to watch the big electronic sellers like Apple for difrection…but I think we have seen the bottom on this. I put in a stop 10% up so no matter what I win. If it drops into the 70’s, I look at it hard again. TMI? Grin

Same with SQM, thatI mentioned to Matt, it looks like their labor issues are over ( maybe, its a banana republic) and it will back and fill but with more wild swings. its riskier than a TSM and its priced accordingly.

Bigeasy is right about one thing….its hard to outperform the indexes but its possible even for an avg guy like myself….I have clients that do it every year. They won’t take your $100k…typically its $10M minimum or more and just from word of mouth these guys are buried.

I don’t really pay attention to buy and hold SP performance…I balance my risk differently. It didn’t bother me one bit to be mostly in cash last year with only a couple sectors- that killed the S&P.

Oil is up, but I wouldn’t expect it to do what it did last year. Buying the oil indexes is OK…but within that index there will be outperformers. Multiple sources ID’d A few…which I bought along with adding to the indexes. I bought CNQ the end of last week. I was comparing it to another low PE and high div oil co. ENQR ( PE 4, 8% div) numbers looked good…but they are plowing a big % in windmills and such- so I passed. More fish in the ocean ….which is the advantage to hand selecting these over indexes. More risk? not if you manage that risk well; stopping them out…selling covered calls or option spreads or just plain watching it with a plan.

Anyway, some random thoughts on my process. If I can help or if you like something, ping me but I hesitate to give picks and then a guy just sits on it. FYI, the stuff I mentioned in my posts I have a strict plan for each.

The Random Walk down WS guys think all of this stuff is priced in, thats hogwash. There is anomolies we can use as individual investors…and its worked for me.

From: Beendare
13-Jan-23
Forgot to mention; we will all be up here in the next month or more.

Then what is our plan? If we hit a recession those gains could turn to losses.

Anyway…IMO now is the time to be developing a plan for your assets. I’m going to try and kill another Coues deer with my recurve to show the first wasnt a fluke!

.

From: RK
13-Jan-23
Bigeasy

In your 20 years on the production side of the oil and gas industry how many rigs have you invested in and were they successful and when the price per barrel went below $0 How many barrels did you buy?

From: bigeasygator
13-Jan-23
How many rigs have I personally invested in with my money? Zero, but I don’t see the relevance. And I don’t trade oil barrels - with my personal money or with my company’s money - so I’ve never bought a barrel of oil at any price.

From: RK
14-Jan-23
It's not relevant to anything other than a simple question with an equally simple answer, thanks

From: Kydeer1
14-Jan-23
Not to hijack the thread, but it peaked my interest. Anyone have a brief summary of their thoughts on investing or not right now and what they consider a good or intriguing option?

From: Kydeer1
14-Jan-23
Not to hijack the thread, but it peaked my interest. Anyone have a brief summary of their thoughts on investing or not right now and what they consider a good or intriguing option?

From: molsonarcher
14-Jan-23
I dont profess to have half the knowledge or experience that alot of guys on here have regarding the stock market, or whats coming or where to put funds right now.

I will say this though. There are plenty of decent, good, and better options “on sale” right now, that will eventually go back to where they were closer to their highs. I prefer to get paid while i wait, so i own very few positions that do not pay a decent or better than decent dividend. Some ive had for years, some are recent acquisitions to my portfolio.

As someone above said though, its best to have an idea on a good exit plan. A simple stop loss can take the emotion and thought out of it if its a concern.

I tend to hold and not sell, unless something has changed in company management or financials in the company are going the wrong direction.

Ups and downs occur in the market and are out of most of our control, and that will never go away. If you make good choices going in, in the long run you will be fine.

From: bigeasygator
14-Jan-23
Kydeer1, all depends on your personal situation. For me, I’m 20 years from needing to tap into any investments. So it’s all a buy for me right now.

From: Grey Ghost
14-Jan-23
I gave my prediction earlier. I think the financial sector will outperform most others in 2023. But I’m just a redneck who retired at 45. ;-)

Matt

14-Jan-23
RK actually makes a good point to bigeasy, but not about buying actual barrels of oil. My question to bigeasy would be, as someone in the oil industry and as a smart, savvy investor, when a barrel of oil went into negative value in March 2020, did you recognize this as a massive buying opportunity? Did you invest heavily in oil stocks?

(A simple investment, like an energy ETF, XEG went from $8.42 in Feb of 2020 down to $2.65 in March of 2020 to now at $15.63.)

From: Beendare
15-Jan-23
Good example of sectors Mike.

FWIW, the WSJ had a rather obvious article this weekend saying Semiconductors are the new oil that every economy runs on. My bet, this wont be straight up from here- its a huge cap ex intensive industry and they are spending a lot going into a downturn.

For guys who don’t want to do the research; I have been following Dan Niles- danniles.com- for decades since he was the Intel analyst. He has his own fund, Satori fund that was up last year. If I was going to have someone manage my $$$, he would be on the short list. I don’t know his min…He does a short/long strategy that, contrary to what some say here about active mgrs- he made money last year and outperformed.

He is on CNBC a lot and you can search his commentary. If you lost money last year…look at Dan. Unlike the supposed financial advisors that just plug your money in indexes and collect a fee, Niles actively manages and controls your risk.

Disclosure; I dont know or have any money with him…but I follow his comments regularly.

From: Horn Hustler
15-Jan-23
The guy on the short short list managing mine is the fella typing this. Bh

From: Grey Ghost
15-Jan-23
Bruce, the Satori Funds minimum deposit is $500K. And you are correct, Dan Niles is one sharp investor. I always stop what I'm doing to listen to him when he's on CNBC.

Matt

From: bigeasygator
15-Jan-23
RK actually makes a good point to bigeasy, but not about buying actual barrels of oil. My question to bigeasy would be, as someone in the oil industry and as a smart, savvy investor, when a barrel of oil went into negative value in March 2020, did you recognize this as a massive buying opportunity? Did you invest heavily in oil stocks?

The price of oil going negative was essentially an anomaly. It was related to there being essentially no storage capacity left. Unless you had a massive storage you had no way to capitalize on the negative oil price. One only need to look at the future contracts for out months and also to oil and gas valuations to recognize $0 oil was a temporary anomaly.

And I said it already, the vast majority of my personal financial exposure is tied up in oil and gas. I have more oil and gas stock in my portfolio than anything else. Those aren’t the questions RK asked.

16-Jan-23
Everybody is an expert in hindsight. If only....

I like buying my stocks on sale, so I generally only buy when there have been several very bloody days in a row on the market that have driven prices way down. Yeah, I know, don't try to catch a falling knife. Thing is, I've generally been pretty successful with this strategy, catching several of the lowest days in the last 5 years. I'm sure I do have some lost opportunity cost by not being more invested in the market for longer periods of time and catching extended performance upswings. I'm re-evaluating some of my strategies. I put a lot of stock in Warren Buffett's investing theories, and there was a time when he was an extreme "value" buyer, but eventually got to a point where he said he'd rather pay a fair price for an excellent business than an excellent price for a fair business. I've never been one to buy stock in what I think is only a "fair" business, but I'm getting to the point where it's a little easier for me to pull the trigger at a fair price for an excellent business. Though I still will only buy on significant down days in the market.

One thing that has always amazed me (and continues to do so) is how most people like to buy everything on sale, except stocks. The average investor wants to buy stocks when they're on an up-swing, and wants to sell them when they're on sale. My thinking is the opposite of that. I do definitely end up holding through some significant drops in the market, but just try to average down in per share price as the price goes down, as long as it's a good company stock and there isn't some specific worrying reason that particular stock or sector is getting bloodied.

16-Jan-23
So bigeasy did you get the 5 fold increase to your money in the oil and gas sector due to the $0 a barrel anomaly?

From: bigeasygator
16-Jan-23
No. The sector, on average, isn't up 5x since the $0/bbl anomaly in April 2020. It's up about 2-3x since then. Some higher, some lower.

From: Grey Ghost
16-Jan-23
I don't think the performance of the energy sector since the Covid crash has been driven by the brief moment in time that oil went below $0/barrel.

Matt

16-Jan-23
Perhaps my math isn’t as good as bigeasy or my understanding of what drove up the energy sector like Grey ghost but:

A simple investment, like an ETF that tracks the energy portion of the S and P 500, XEG, went from $8.42 in Feb of 2020 down to $2.65 in March of 2020 to now at $15.63.

Did either of you catch the 2-3 times increase at least?

From: midwest
16-Jan-23
My dad retired from Caterpillar and when he passed in 2011, he left us kids some CAT stock. My siblings sold it and rolled into their IRA mutual funds but I decided to just keep my shares in CAT. Glad I did. :-)

From: Grey Ghost
16-Jan-23
Mike, I guess I don't understand the point you’re trying to make. Energy sector stocks hit a low point on 3/16/20. The sudden crash in oil prices to below $0 happened over a month later on 4/20/20, and it didn’t have any affect on energy stock prices which were already rising by that time. So, it’s not like below $0 oil was an obvious signal that energy stocks were going to go on a 2 year bull run. At least not for me.

For me, the light went on when oil went over $100/barrel and gas went over $4/gal, with no significant drop in demand. That was my signal to pile into an energy sector ETF about a year ago. I didn't realize the full gains from the low point in 2020, but I'm up 76% on what I did buy. And as I said earlier, that overweight position prevented my overall portfolio from suffering loses similar to what the S&P did last year. I wish I would have bought more, but hindsight is always 20/20.

How about you? When did you conclude the energy sector was going to have this amazing run, and when did you invest in it?

Matt

From: Sivart
16-Jan-23
Satori is a hedge fund, correct?

From: bigeasygator
16-Jan-23
Did either of you catch the 2-3 times increase at least?

For the part of my energy portfolio that I invested in around that time, yes, it did. I already had energy investments at a higher cost basis, so they didn't see the same rise.

But pretty much every industry recovered 2-3x from their COVID lows, until the Fed became hawkish anyway so it's not like energy was really anything special relative to the market when talking about the COVID recovery. It's only for the last year or so that it really outperformed the broader market.

Satori is a hedge fund, correct?

Yes.

From: Beendare
16-Jan-23
I think Mike’s point is; There is a lot of talk, but did you walk the walk?

In my system- I’m rarely early and I miss some of that early up move, thus I did good last year but not great- the index stuff dragged me down. I only got 35% from the 65% up in energy- I was admittedly late.

I bought some semi stuff recently- late again…. But I think those might test their lows again in the summer or fall if there is a recession. It’s a very high cap ex industry- profit can go away quickly- just ask Intel grin

From: bigeasygator
16-Jan-23
I think Mike’s point is; There is a lot of talk, but did you walk the walk?

I’ve made no bones about my strategy. I am a long term investor, I believe timing the market is ridiculously difficult, I believe in Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory - therefore I build a diversified portfolio and take a relatively passive approach to investing. Mike seems to think that it was a no brainer that energy was going to go on an amazing run. So we’re keen to understand how he played it. You know, did he walk the talk? Furthermore, where does he think the winners are this year?

17-Jan-23
My point is that maybe you two aren’t so smart after all.

Maybe you should try a bit more humility and respect for your fellow bowsite members even when they can’t give some technical analysis or use phrases like Efficient Market Hypothesis. It’s such an intellectual high horse you always ride on with a “I’m smarter than all of you peons”, attitude.

You bigeasy are an expert in the oil industry for the last 20 years right? And you missed a 5 time gain in energy stocks, not 2 or 3 times. 5 times! The S and P 500 had a less than 2x gain from the Covid lows to now so No it was a very special increase in YOUR AREA OF EXPERTISE. ’And both of you say that $0 oil wasn’t a signal that the industry wasn’t going to have a massive increase?! That timing that play was ridiculously difficult?! Really? You two can’t even admit when you totally missed a golden opportunity.

Matt says he piled into oil stocks when oil hit $100 and mainstream news told him to do it. There’s a lot of space between $0 and $100! I would say he took a big risk, it could have easily been too late, he got lucky. These huge boom and bust and then growth opportunities don’t come along often but there is no reason you can’t capitalize on them when they do with timing the market and heavily investing, or divesting in one sector. Or even dumping a whole index like the S and P 500 after a 20+ year bull run. Smart investors really proved it by making a lot of money right after the 2009 financial crisis and again right after the Covid crisis and they usually weren’t the technical analysts, trying to prove how smart they are.

From: Beendare
17-Jan-23
On a separate note…does anyone follow Tyson foods? TSN This could be a big turn around play. They are moving there stuff to Arkansas, improving their processing plants. They are losing some LT employees, which could actually be a good thing if they are aggressive in their turn around.

Chicken is essentially a commodity, but they are trying to brand it, even though it looks to be a pretty weak branding effort.

If someone follows it, please ping me in a PM.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Jan-23
So, Mike, when did you invest in this "golden opportunity", and what were your signals to do so? And, what are your investment picks for 2023?

Matt

From: bigeasygator
17-Jan-23

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
’And both of you say that $0 oil wasn’t a signal that the industry wasn’t going to have a massive increase?! That timing that play was ridiculously difficult?! Really? You two can’t even admit when you totally missed a golden opportunity.

You seem to not understand how equities are priced, how oil companies are priced, and how oil prices are factored into the equation. Again, you understand that oil company valuations did not go to zero despite oil prices going to zero, right? In fact, if you look at their valuations, I believe the implied price premise on a go forward basis at the time was somewhere around $30-40/bbl. In other words, there was actually already upside priced into oil companies based on the short term future prices even when oil was at $0.

And again, you keep saying I "missed" the low. It all depends on what your definition of "missed" is. I have plenty of oil stock that was purchased during the COVID lows of March 2020. Did I move all of my personal wealth into oil stocks in March 2020? No. That would be the height of stupidity IMO. I'm employed by an oil company and already have plenty of financial exposure to the highs and lows of the industry. Also, the valuations have been driven by some pretty incredible circumstances that not a lot of people were predicting - namely, the shift to capital discipline and sacrificing growth (particularly from the US shale patch) plus the war in Ukraine. As mentioned, I'm a believer in having a diversified portfolio that hedges risk to any one industry and I believe timing the market is essentially a crap shoot. And no, I'm not trying to make anyone feel dumb - on the contrary, it's about pointing out that there is fairly well established theory around this approach (theory that has won Nobel prizes for its biggest advocates). As someone who has proclaimed they listen to a lot of podcasts on these things, they shouldn't be unfamiliar to you.

To further the concepts, these attached charts were shown when I was in grad school during an investments class where we talked about things like Modern Portfolio Theory. The point of the chart was to show the amount of variation in asset class and sectors when looking at historical returns. None of them are always winners. None of them are always losers. Their order in terms of returns are all over the board. To further the discussion on a "go-forward" basis, if all signs point to a strong result in a particular industry, how do you know whether or not that upside has been priced in? All of this led me to be a big proponent of having a well diversified portfolio that balances risk and return. I'm sure there are people who generate higher returns in their portfolio than me - I guarantee there are people that have lost more more than me. In fact, on the second chart, the Asset Allocation Portfolio probably replicates both my approach as well as the returns I've seen (both relative to other assets as well as from an actual return perspective).

So, back to Grey Ghost's question, Mike. Since you keep suggesting that it's easy to pick winners and time the market, what are going to be the best performing sectors and asset classes in 2023?

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
I'm enjoying this thread....I don't see any bragging going on, just sharing ideas and concepts. That said, as GG well knows I play my own game, developing my own edge. My opinion is there is no one method that fits all. A lot depends on your personality and interest. Passive works...so can aggressive.

GG is very much a traditional fundamentalist btw...he has been quite successful at it.

Beendare seems to have blended Ta and fundamental analysis very successfully.

I mostly just follow trends and patterns... have little interest in fundamental analysis or valuation.

Hope you guys carry on with this, maybe time for a new 2023 thread?

Different strokes and all. It's a very fascinating field of study to me.

I see no reason to be negative regarding someone else's thoughts. I'm not competing with others, only myself

From: Grey Ghost
17-Jan-23
Well said, Dan.

Someday you need to teach me that voodoo that you do. The charts you've sent to me in the past looked like hieroglyphics to me. ;-)

Matt

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
TSN (Tyson Foods)

Beendare...I like it. As I've said I don't use fundamental at all (well, seldom). My "voodoo" TA tells me it's a buy right now and likely will be a more certain buy soon.

I already had it on my "watch" list...will follow it closer. I'm fully invested at the moment so won't be buying any at present.

I use a very very simple charting system btw. Oftentimes I think people make it too complicated

From: Beendare
17-Jan-23
I lived through the 70’s…. A lost decade for the stock market.

I’m not smart enough to know what is going to happen, long-term.

I do think there is a danger to the groupthink of buy and hold, Its why I use sectors and rotating in and out of the market to control my risk.

I don’t catch every move up, but then I don’t get slaughtered on the way down either.

The modern portfolio group think uses diversification and long term hold as risk management. Color me skeptical when everyone is saying, the same thing .

I think there is a similarity here to 1970’s inflation- a list decade- which is a risk to that strategy and its worth evaluating for yourself.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Jan-23
I'm going to play devils advocate on Tyson Foods for a moment. Why would a company be showing buy signals on a TA chart when their earnings are projected to drop 26% this year?

Matt

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
Matt,

Stock movement is all. Make a note on Tyson's stock price and follow it for a couple months. Nothing iron clad locked up but Tyson looks very well positioned to me. Not giving advice to anybody else. I get little use out of fundamental stuff. Just doesn't work for me. Example is the discussion on petroleum... I did play it some last summer, got out too soon but still made a little $.. I suspect the $ has been made on it and will be surprised if it's real strong from here on out. And i could be wrong, I don't mind being wrong at all. :) (a good thing)

From: bigeasygator
17-Jan-23
Hey bluedog, curious what your technical analysis says about some of the tech stocks that have sold off recently? Thinking of names like Tesla, Apple, Meta, etc. Seems like their stock trends would look pretty similar to Tyson's, at least over the last year or so.

17-Jan-23
Again....everybody is an expert *in hindsight*. Don't be that guy. If you're going to be, can you please tell me what interest rates are going to do in the next 6-12 months? k thx.

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
I see no one claiming to be an expert. Think we're all amateurs here.

Regarding interest rates in next year..... i suspect they've about reached their high. Expect light to moderate lightening. I think the feds are walking a tight line, doing as good a job as they can. Trying to moderate inflation without killing the economy seems a difficult procedure to me. Notice I DID NOT tell you what interest rates are going to do..... just what I expect and I could be totally wrong.

From: Matt
17-Jan-23

Matt's Link
"I do think there is a danger to the groupthink of buy and hold..."

What danger is that, other than it not being adequately contrarian? ;-)

Like I indicated above, if one looks at the S&P's long-term performance, I think that it would be tough to claim that a buy and hold strategy with a well-diversified portfolio is "dangerous". From where I stand, I would think a strategy that relies on active trading and accurately timing markets would carry greater risk.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Jan-23
Over the last 30 years, the inflation adjusted average annual return of the S&P is around 7%. Not too bad. But, there have been decades when the S&P was actually negative. In 2000-2010 for example, investing in the S&P index would have returned a 1.29% loss. Some analysts think we are headed for another of those bear market decades right now. That's when the passive buy and hold strategy doesn't work too well.

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
17-Jan-23
Big layoffs this week. Fuel is up.

TSM buy last Oct is looking really promising. May purchase some more. Same as the PARA buy last year.

TSCM is going to do well. Take some time to build here but they will do 2-3 Nano here. Which means if China goes forward with aggression threat by 2027. These two new plants in Az will keep producing. With CHIPs act the Government is on hook to get Semi’s built here.

Bh

From: Matt
17-Jan-23
"But, there have been decades when the S&P was actually negative. In 2000-2010 for example, investing in the S&P index would have returned a 1.29% loss. "

The 11-year decade you reference above both began and ended in recession (and ended during the deepest recession in our lifetimes), which somewhat reflects the folly I referenced above of trying to assess investments over relatively short time periods.

When people are investing for retirement, they are looking at a 30-40 year time horizon between when they start investing for retirement and when they actually retire/need to start drawing funds. The 7% rate of return you referenced is more normalized/representative of that sort of timeframe than what may have happened in a given 11-year period in the middle of that. Further, people don't draw down their retirement in a lump sum the day they retire but rather in dribs and drabs over 20-30 years. With that, the same sort of normalization occurs (some will be drawn down in bad markets and some in good, so there is an averaging of sorts over time).

But if you mis-timed the market during 2000-2010, you could have missed out on the ~5-year run where the S&P 500 was up 90% (9/02-10/07).

From: Grey Ghost
17-Jan-23
Matt, I get what your saying, but my wife and I had a different plan than working and saving for 30-40 years. We wanted to retire comfortably before we were too old to enjoy it. 7% annual returns on our investments wasn’t going to accomplish that, so that’s when I took a different approach. Perhaps we got lucky, but our retirement account outperformed the S&P by a significant amount every year. That allowed us to accomplish our retirement goals. YMMV

Matt

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
Gator,

Those stocks you named are looking similar to Tyson far as positivity to me. I trade 3 accounts, 2 IRA and 1 regular taxable account which I tend to longer term hold in, mainly just keeping my taxes easier to do I think. ;)

In my regular account I'm all in Amazon currently. Guess Amzn fits right in with stocks you named. My other 5 current holdings are all in ETFs.

Stressing I'm not giving advice just telling what I do.

I also think most people spend way to much time and energy screening and reading to select just the right stock. I keep a stable of maybe 2 dozen and mostly trade out of the same 8 or 10 stocks (etfs) repeatedly.

What I'm comfortable with. To me it's money management over stock selection

From: DonVathome
17-Jan-23
For most people DCA the S&P. SPY

I personally think the markets are going down a lit more. I am shorting a lot. I also sell options on stocks I own a lot.

I short the meme stocks on all spikes. BBBY, AMC, APE, GME, BB, APRN, CVNA. I am 55% short, 5% long all high dividend stocks, 10% commodities the rest cash. The past 4 years I have spent 3-5 hours a day studying the economy and stocks.

I strongly believe DCA long term. I also strongly feel everyone long in the market is going to getvhurt this year.

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
DONV.....You may well be correct in your prediction. I just react to what I see happening.

Maybe last disclaimer: I offer no advice and only state what I'm doing. Like Don and others I have spent many hours studying the market and arriving at my style. Whether I'm doing it right could be debatable ... I strongly feel everybody should develop their own personal style, hopefully with an edge that proves profitable.

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
One thing I like about the market...it's ok to change your mind

I got in house just now and took a closer look at Tyson stock. TSN , for me, is trending towards a possible buy but currently not there for me.

Possible Ghost's pessimism is well founded. Time will tell I reckon.

17-Jan-23
I'm referring to those who look back at past performance and make like people should have known easily in advance what the market was going to do. Price of oil, price of corn, etc.

From: bluedog
17-Jan-23
ahh, I agree, Monday morning quarterbacking is easy.

From: Horn Hustler
18-Jan-23
YTD in trades @ 146%. Yesterday was not a great day but was still able to do some damage. Again, Im not bundling things up for the future. If I can make some $ right now that's what I do. Don't need money for future as that's been taken care of long time ago. Bh

From: Grey Ghost
18-Jan-23
"YTD in trades @ 146%."

Of course they are, Shawn. We'd expect nothing less from you. Care to share with the class what trades produced those YTD gains?

Matt

From: bigeasygator
18-Jan-23
Care to share with the class what trades produced those gains last year?

Must've cashed in on that $200/bbl oil bet!

From: Grey Ghost
18-Jan-23
^^^LOL! You beat me to it, Gator. For a guy who was so far off on that prediction, he sure seems to have an uncanny knack for predicting and timing the rest of the market. Perhaps he will share what his crystal ball is saying for 2023.

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
18-Jan-23
CBG, BBB,Inc, NVDA, AA Just a few. Erypto is a deal after MINI Madoff scared folks off the bean. Was a great buy and will buy some more. Going to buy back into Bitcoin family as I think I can beat my 21 sale profit of what I had in it at 1/10 the cost in todays $.

Not in it for the long game. No im not shorting anything. Long as GVT does not default of some $ I put in T Bills with Itll be another great year. Let the Trust Attorney figger up what I owe Uncle Sugar in April. Bh

From: Grey Ghost
18-Jan-23
What is CBG and BBB? I can't find those tickers, Shawn. And "Inc" comes up as a high yield bond ETF that's only 2 months old. And I'm guessing you meant Crypto not "Erypto".

Matt

From: bigeasygator
18-Jan-23
CBG, BBB,Inc, NVDA, AA

CBG: 1 year return: -8%; YTD return: 7% BBB: 1 year return: -71%; YTD return: 75% NVDA: 1 year return: -33%; YTD return: 22% AA: 1 year return: -8%; YTD return: 24%

Color me skeptical that you perfectly timed the bottom which was essentially a few weeks ago or that your portfolio is up 146% trading those stocks. Just sayin...

From: Matt
18-Jan-23
BEG, he probably deleted all the negative signs and then added up all the numbers to get 146.

From: bluedog
18-Jan-23
Maybe HH just forgot a decimal point and meant 14.6% instead of 146% ....

From: Grey Ghost
18-Jan-23
BEG, will you interpret Shawn's post for me? What is CBG and Inc? And I'm assuming "BBB" is Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)?

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
18-Jan-23
Those are not tickers all. Specially the negative ones

They were not timed. Just common sense , world events, and supply markets factors.

ElCryoto was easy after Mini Madoff! Clear buy, jingle in the pocket. Cant lose on that in short term. With Gvts the world over using it to pay digital ransoms. Until USA opens its digital central bank it is a easy pick. Sold it before for Record Profit why give up on it.

Metals , another easy pick. Look at commodities track. With the Russians bogged down, Joe adding Obama’s EPA Regs back on in USA and Fuel Trans cost. I figgered be a great time on a great company and it worked out well. In fact, so far today im killin it. Will it last the Summer out, Who knows? if it dont i take the $ and send it down the road.

Plenty of good short term deals out there. Not all work out.

My exposure to the current down turn does not bother me in least. Sold every asset i had save some very old Oil and Energy stocks in Jan 20. Jumped back April 20 and in with a much heavier exposure today. Timing most times will get ya. Just hit the cut right one time and its all jingle. Own zero funds (group of 20 or more stocks). I own my Fund, i built. Meets my goals

Bh

18-Jan-23
Bigeasy and Grey Ghost, I I got an 3x investment on 50% of my portfolio by simply buying XEG energy etf in late 2020. I wanted to buy it in March and April of 2020 when it was an obvious choice, dropping from $8 in Feb 2020 down to $2.95 in March 2020 and oil going to $0 in April. XEG now sits at $15.74. (That’s the 5X gain both of you missed out on.) I sold XEG and immediately bought the largest dividend paying oil and gas stocks like CNQ, SU, ENB and plan to just hold them for awhile. I missed the 5X gain but I’m not an oil industry guru and don’t understand how oil equities are priced and I don’t have any fancy charts.

Where oil will go from now? I have no idea, I never said I did. I said it was during boom and bust and then growth cycles when you can invest heavily in one sector and make lots of money. Let’s say like real estate in 2010.

From: Grey Ghost
18-Jan-23
" I wanted to buy it in March and April of 2020 when it was an obvious choice..."

So, why didn't you, if it was so obvious?

18-Jan-23
Because my portfolio had been liquidated into emergency cash in case I had to pour it into my outfitting business.

Once my bank assured me they weren’t going to call my operating loans and were actually offering more loans I bought back into stocks. My other 50% went into gold mining stocks that have all held their value, zero losses. I can sell them all and buy other dividend paying mining metal mining stocks or keep them.

I’m sure your balanced, genius portfolio has lost money?

From: bigeasygator
18-Jan-23
Where oil will go from now? I have no idea, I never said I did. I said it was during boom and bust and then growth cycles when you can invest heavily in one sector and make lots of money

So where are we now in terms of the boom or bust cycle? More upside or downside? You seem to suggest it's easy to identify these cycles. I mean look at the chart I posted - energy underperformed the S&P in 8 out of 9 years prior to 2020. This included booms and busts in oil price (see 2014/2015). Why were you so certain energy was going to outperform during a period where we had demand falling off a cliff, had incredible supply surpluses, and ultimately had a Democrat elected into the White House?

I’m sure your balanced, genius portfolio has lost money?

Over what time frame?

From: Horn Hustler
18-Jan-23
When sanity is placed back in WH.

A bloodletting out there today. See what gives at 1000est tomorrow.

Bh

From: Grey Ghost
18-Jan-23
So Mike, are you going to stay 50% in oil and gas for 2023? Or, what is your crystal ball telling you to do going forward?

Btw, sorry you have to take on debt to keep your business running.

Matt

19-Jan-23
I think going forward is now difficult to predict. The main part of the boom, bust and growth stage is over. Opportunities were missed, including by me. I lean towards a bull run or at least solid dividend returns, on commodities, oil, gas and precious metals for the next several years. But who knows, a smart technical investor could make money on tech stocks now, picking the right companies? Or a balanced portfolio with a 60/40 stocks and bonds split could be perfect? Beats me?

Grey Ghost, thanks for the kind comment on having to go all cash at a not good time. The good part was that it got me out of the S and P 500 etf, and other ETF’s and bonds and made me really analyze what to do next to try to make up the losses. Oil and gas and even gold did it.

19-Jan-23

Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Here’s some good podcasts, they give hours and hours of excellent information where you don’t have to sit and read it. Driving, walking the dog, working out or even sitting in a tree stand with just one ear bud in are great ways to get the info. The millennial investor one has a YouTube channel too if you want to sit and watch, see charts and it’s certainly not just for millennials. They can all be set to 1 1/2 listening speed or skipped ahead or back. Hope they help.

From: bigeasygator
19-Jan-23
I think going forward is now difficult to predict.

I agree with you there. That's always the case, IMO.

The main part of the boom, bust and growth stage is over

What does that mean? I don't understand what the "main part" is referencing? Are you saying oil prices will be stable for awhile? Are you saying valuations will be unchanged for awhile? Oil is cyclical, and you basically just said every stage of the cycle is over - so where does that leave us?

From: Rocky D
19-Jan-23
BEG, I’m following this discussion unless I am lost I think that Mike is referring to the economy/market not just oil.

I thought that was obvious so now I’m wondering if I’m really lost.

From: Rocky D
19-Jan-23

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
Well, it appears investors weren't thrilled with yesterday's retail sales reports. Microsoft announcing they are laying off 10, 000 employees didn't help either. Over half of the YTD S&P gains are gone in just 2 days. I'm trying to remain optimistic, but I'm bracing to be disappointed. I wish I was better at shorting the market, but I hate trying to pick losers.

I guess I'll stay overweight in cash and ride it out for a while longer. AA and BBBY...ouch!!

Matt

19-Jan-23
For about the 100th time bigeasy, when oil was at $0 it wasn’t hard to predict that it was going to go up, along with oil stocks, and it did.

XEG went quickly from $8 down to $3. I thought it going back up was an easy call, so I invested in it. I was correct.

I’m not seeing those huge moves now so it’s become much more difficult to predict. I’m sorry if this is too complicated for you. Good luck with your investing.

From: bigeasygator
19-Jan-23
when oil was at $0 it wasn’t hard to predict that it was going to go up, along with oil stocks, and it did

I'll disagree. For the 100th time, you realize oil stocks were still priced at a price assumption of around $30-40/bbl even when oil was trading at $0/bbl. In other words, of course the spot price of oil was going up - the next months contracts were trading in the $30s from what I remember and things were about to roll over - but there certainly wasn't a guarantee equities were going up (that oil price upside was already priced in). As GG has pointed out, none of that really features into the reasons energy has outperformed the broader market recently. Sounds like bought something not fully understanding how it was priced and you got lucky more than anything - which is always a big part of investing! Best of luck as well - and I encourage you to diversify your investments.

19-Jan-23
I did have a diversified investments from 2009 to 2020. I was 60% ETF stocks and 40% bonds. I more than doubled my money. I felt that model was broken in 2020 so I invested differently. Thank goodness I did! I encourage you to not diversify your investments so much and maybe you’ll make some money. Have a listen to the millennial investor podcast #248. Good luck!

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
I don't know about taking investing advice from a group called "Millennial Investor". Wasn't it millennial investors who were primarily responsible for the meme stock fiascos like GameStop and AMC?

Matt

From: Orion
19-Jan-23
Lots of people made lots of money off gamestop

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
And far more gullible people lost money and were forever tainted on investing in the stock markets, again.

Matt

From: Orion
19-Jan-23
did you watch the netflix documentary on it? it was pretty interesting

From: Orion
19-Jan-23
You could also say the same thing about almost any stock and pretty much all the crypto out there right now

From: Horn Hustler
19-Jan-23
Sold early today. Glad i did.

Lets see what peeks an interest. AA made a tidy sum in 4 wks. No sense in taking it in the shorts. last gew days not many been spared. When most your expose is at the DOW 18k level its not wearing a hole. Bh

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
The best thing that came out of the whole GameStop fiasco was a bunch of young video gamers learned there is more to investing than reading memes on Reddit.

Matt

From: Orion
19-Jan-23
No the best thing that came out of it was showing how crooked wall street and the stock market all is.

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
How so, Orion? Can you be specific?

From: Horn Hustler
19-Jan-23
Plenty good deals out there. What puzzles me is: You got El Crypto makin a killun in last few weeks and you have others going belly up?

Coinbase had one of it regions just tap out?

Once the USDCB gets a foothold i really wonder if Crypto will fold or go Apey? One thing i do know is the middle man will get screwd ie; Banks.

Bh

From: Orion
19-Jan-23
Seriously Grey Ghost your commenting on the gamestop fiasco and have no idea what I'm referring to. Why don't you start by googling RobinHood gamestop scandal. You can also watch congresses investigation on youtube.

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
IMO, the single thing that made crypto an instant phenomenon was blockchain technology, and the fact that it was unregulated. Now, the central banks are all about using blockchain, while regulating crypto, which will cause crypto to fade away. That's why crypto has always been a poor long term investment to me. I wish I had the foresight to see the potential early on, but I wouldn't touch crypto with a 10 foot pole now.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
Orion, then explain what you are referring to. I followed the whole GameStop fiasco with great interest. I even made some money off of it. But I don't see how it exposed "how crooked wall street and the stock market all is." Enlighten me, please.

Matt

From: Orion
19-Jan-23
Research the hedge fund that owned part of Robinhood and baled out Melvin Capitol. They were doing things after hours when average joes can't trade and they also played a huge role in Robinhood shutting down trading abilities when Melvin Capitol was crashing. How any of it was legal is beyond me.

From: Grey Ghost
19-Jan-23
Melvin capital and robinhood were simply players in the game. They both got exposed. Meanwhile the markets quickly ignored them and went back to business as usual.

Matt

From: RK
19-Jan-23
I love this thread. Lots of different strategies to conquer the future. Lots of fortunes lost by over thinking Realities.

Keep it up !!

From: Horn Hustler
20-Jan-23
Enjoy listening to the long haul strategies when your already in 70’s . Just read a good paper on just that. Most dont realize mortality is just around the corner. At 75 you got about 5-7yrs left for most of males in US . Some will be gone much earlier.

So, unless you wanna go out in a last two three year blast off. Thats cool. Just lotta folks just dont realize whats waiting.

Cuts both ways i reckon, cuz at 60 you got around 20 years on average for your $ to make Some coin for yourself but you got to figger in a period of time to use it. Bh

From: bluedog
20-Jan-23
Horn Hustler...... Good post. Some think they're going to live forever, they're not.

From: Horn Hustler
20-Jan-23
Go figure? Hell, i did not think death was possible until Panama Invasion in 89. The Bell tolls for us all in the end.

Took care my grandkids. With that done. Theres no long haul in my plan.

Bh

From: bluedog
20-Jan-23
I learned about mortality back in 67 and 68. Kinda been hearings that bell forever. No long haul plans here. Especially now at 75.... 76 in May if I make it.

"It tolls for thee"

From: Beendare
25-Jan-23
I’m going to keep my oil stuff but I don’t expect anything close to another year like last year. Im selling my SP index stuff and will be out of the low pe chip stuff I have in a few weeks. Some taxable ETF stuff I will keep just so I dont pay the tax bill. I’m going to lock in the gains that I have for the year in my non-taxable accounts.

I will most likely be 40% oil and the rest in short term bonds for much of the year.

If I can ekk out 20% this year I will be happy…..someone did 146%- wow

S&P earnings estimates dropping….( I think analysts are always late to the party going both ways)

MSFT earnings soft, the CEO even says “ 2 yrs” Cloud stuff soft. Enterprise software tanking. Rails reporting poor results. Then add a Dem admin that hates business and cant find their Ass with both hands….

Like I said earlier, Im ok with being out of that type of mkt environment to manage risk.

From: Matt
25-Jan-23
“someone did 146%- wow”

Someone *said* they did 146%. There is a difference. ;-)

From: Horn Hustler
26-Jan-23
Picked up some more low volume Oil myself. Joe will get price back up to get us into an EV. Unless it tanks hard it will not be hard to come close to last year. 1099 Div are coming in now. Im liking it. TSM is killing it. Figgered that would really Pop last year with Chynah wanting to take Taiwan back. Think Im goona take another few hunnerd shares.

Bh

From: Grey Ghost
26-Jan-23
Tesla earnings were slightly better than expected, and of course it's up over 8% in pre-market. That will probably prop up the Nasdaq today.

Beendare's SQM call continues to roll.

I'm going to buy some YINN, based on conversations with a friend who I respect. With China re-opening, their people have a record amount of savings built up and burning a hole in their pockets, just like the US population did in 2021. The triple leveraged ETFs scare me a little, so I'm buying conservatively, but the payout could be big.

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
26-Jan-23
Set you trigger light to sell that stuff whin Chynah jumps on Taiwan or youll be screwd.

Was reading a gud paper from Heritage on what is likely to happen to the world economy when Chynah moves. Ugly stuff. 1st whiff i dumped it all like Covid.

Bh

From: soccern23ny
26-Jan-23
Over 6 years my crypto is doing better than my stocks(mutual/index funds). Next bull run should be real fun for crypto

From: Horn Hustler
26-Jan-23
Did job in AFG for a group in a tight spot. Was a 5k job. Guy paid me out in Khar with Bit’s. I was pissed. Little did i know how well that turned out 12-13yrs later. I am open to BC Diamond or cash.?

Bh

From: soccern23ny
26-Jan-23
There is only 1 legit Bitcoin... "Bitcoin" abbreviated BTC sometimes XBT

From: Beendare
26-Jan-23
TSLA jumps. Yeah, I don't get it. ...folks still living in the past.

Its a car company for gods sake, in a highly Cap ex intensive industry. This should be valued at about 15x-20x- and thats probably generous. Its at 50x now.

IMO, thats gambling not investing. Same for Crypto. How do you value it? What is a Bitcoin worth? Buy and hope is not a strategy. At least with a company you can value it through its assets and market opportunity. Even the staples have some pretty high valuations right now. Is Coke worth 27x earnings? Is Procter and gamble worth 25x? I don't think so.....

The last 15 years was a free for all with cheap money, growth at any cost. The high flyers with negative earnings ....or very high valuations have to pay the piper at some point.

I wish I had the gonads to short the Cathy Woods ETF's.

From: Recurve Man
26-Jan-23
The refinery stocks are making me a lot closer to retirement.

From: Grey Ghost
26-Jan-23
I couldn't agree more, Beendare.

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
26-Jan-23
Whatever bitcoin was it did me right. When it went stupid in 21 i took the $. If i held it it is worth 1/3. Cant make a profit unless you take it until then its just digits on a screen. Got three or four im looking to pull trigger on, good valuations and Divs that have been solid. Like to see markets move one way or other before i squeeze.

If i see markets start to dip im going take some more profits and pickup a few of those.

Bh

From: Grey Ghost
26-Jan-23
What are your “three or four” you’re waiting on, Shawn? Give us actual company names, or ticker symbols please. If we all invest on your brilliant foresight, we all win, right?

Matt

From: Horn Hustler
27-Jan-23
You just keep rolling for the Long Haul. I gave you some good tip before. You took em i'm sure. Several of them are still over 80% pure profit even after Joe wrecked the economy. Alas, yer to smart. You in it til yer dead.... (long haul) then, the GVT will get 30some % and yer blue state another 11 or 12%. Here's an idea; the long haulers never get. . . . . You cant use it if your Tango Uniform.

Bh

From: Rock
27-Jan-23
When I was working, I did all my own research and investing and did so-so, some years I did great others not so good. Before I retired, I got in touch with "SDHNTR(home)" (Nate Treadwell) and turned all my savings and 401K over to him. Best thing I ever did, he has met my every expectation and performed above what he told me to expect, also a great guy to deal with. Plus, he is a Bowhunter so we can get talking about fun stuff at times instead of all busness.

From: Dale06
27-Jan-23
Rock, I agree with you. I think the vast majority of us would do better and sleep better if we turned over our investments to a REPUTABLE manager. They have a vast amount of data, programs, and time to do what many of us think we can do, but in reality, we get lucky, or un lucky. I turned over my investment accounts 30 years ago and the results have been very good. I’m often asked, “what does he charge.” My answer surprises people. I dont know what he charges. I look at my “net” and am very pleased with the net result.

From: Jaquomo
27-Jan-23
Can someone recommend a decoder ring so we can interpret the nonsensical gibberish posted by Shawn Maygar?

From: Horn Hustler
27-Jan-23
Get outta the Blue MT’s and it will become clear.

Bh

From: Jaquomo
27-Jan-23
Maybe I need to drink more before reading his posts.

From: Beendare
27-Jan-23
My last update on my moves….. but In case you followed my earlier buy semi advice, I owe everyone an update; I’m selling my chip stuff and taking ST profits QCOM, TSM, NXPI. (Edit; sold Qcom only, letting the others ride)

The news; No surprise Intel eps was horrible. Qcom ( next week) will have good results but poor guidance going forward. Cell phone sales off big. We will get a good buy in opportunity on semis later in the year. Sure semis are important…but demand is dropping like a rock at record rates.

This from CNBC yesterday; A total of 1.21 billion smartphones were shipped in 2022, which represents the lowest annual shipment total since 2013 “due to significantly dampened consumer demand, inflation, and economic uncertainties,” IDC said. Apple maintained its position as the number one smartphone maker in the world. The U.S. tech giant shipped 72.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% year on year, IDC said. Samsung, the second-largest smartphone player, saw shipments decline 15.6% year on year to 58.2 million units. —— FWIW, If you buy the Semi ETF….you get dogs like intc and a lot of exposure to over valued companies. If China takes over Taiwan, companies like AMD and Nvidia will go under- know the risk going in. With the totally bought and paid for Biden in Chinas back pocket, risk is very high.

From: Horn Hustler
27-Jan-23
You may wanna read the brief from Heritage on Taiwan and global economy if it goes down!!! Apple get hammered to, what they a 90 billion a quarter company. Nothing will be spared. There be some who'll ride them out til they sink in the Taiwan straight. How long you think you got when yer 60yrs and over to wait for it to come back? When GVT ponies up billions to bring Semi C here, Do you think it was just an accident? CHIPS Act? They best assessment is they are going to try and capture Taiwan and blow their SC facilities all the chit right from the Giddy Up.

Smart to take it while its in Black. Why ride out losses when you don't have too. Saw folks crying, literally crying over 2020 fall out. Was no need. Same folks will ride out the Funds and ETF's into the dirt if this Market terds out. Hope it does not.

Bh

From: Beendare
28-Jan-23
Lots of media claims and generic advice out there that passive investing is superior, buy and hold stay the course, etc etc. Yes, there are a lot of supposed financial planners that are essentially just sales guys- all using the same tired strategy. Sorry, I know a few of you guys are planners and this may not apply to you, but its true for the majority.

All of you that lost money in your accounts last year have heard the excuses.

Take a look at this…….This from Forbes;

Citadel surged past Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater to the top of the all-time list despite Bridgewater’s estimated $6.2 billion in net gains in 2022. Citadel’s flagship multi-strategy Wellington fund returned 38.1% last year, shining during a year when equity markets crashed, and LCH estimates the firm finished 2022 with $62.3 billion in assets under management after posting the largest single-year profit by any hedge fund on record.

“It even surpasses [John] Paulson’s 2007 gain, which has been described as ‘the greatest trade ever,’” says Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments and CEO of Edmond de Rothschild Capital Holdings, in a press release. “Their progress up the rankings in the past few years has been remarkable.” [ Lucky- ugh no!] The stellar year for Citadel’s flagship fund followed a 26% return in 2021 and decades of strong performance–$1 million invested in Wellington at inception in 1990 would be worth $328 million today, compared with $23 million if it were invested in the S&P 500 Index.

28-Jan-23

From: Grey Ghost
29-Jan-23
Minimum investment amount for the Citadel Wellington hedge fund is $10 million

Wow!

From: Beendare
29-Jan-23
I’m just tossing it out there.

There are good and bad strategies ….but much of what goes as “financial planning” is simply group think. Look what group thinks money did in the 1970’s inflationary time frame.

On the flip side, Many HF’s and Money managers underperform…..I think it was Tiger Global that lost 54% of their clients $$ last year-ouch.

The point is, there are strategies that out perform…or are simply less volatile, less risky. Its up to us to do our homework.

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