It ain't gonna be pretty.........
This is the reality. All costs will increase, not just fuel. I can almost imagine the "fallout" when Shockey's article on a hunt increasing due to covid comes true when all operating costs for everyone everywhere increase just to provide the hunt that was booked last year at $2.00 gasoline and the outfitter wants you to pay more. Otherwise, there will be no bookings for hunts ever again, too many outfitters will be out of business. And, we're not talking about reimbursing "money spent not earned". We're talking about the increase in operating real time during the hunt...
Woods Walker's Link
This will not be pretty.......
"Transient", kinda like inflation, interest rate hikes and nukes.
Thats why you don't artificially attack the life blood of our economy to force transition to a different energy platform that isn't ready to replace it. I'm fine going "green" (even though its not as green as people pretend) as long as it happens primarily by market forces. Its so unbelievably stupid to put your country in a weak position on purpose that its almost like it isn't just a case of incompetence. Feels more like something intentional...
We will use what we need to use. The truth is that if you care about the environment, a barrel of oil extracted and refined in the US is better for the environment than a barrel extracted in China, Russia or the middle east. Of course its also better for our economy and the citizens. In the old days that was called a win/win.
BowenAero's Link
Since Spring of 2021 (Since Biden took the helm), my shipping costs have risen almost 40 percent. Had to raise my prices to compensate, or I'm left with next to nothing, by the time EBay takes their fees. Just shipped another order Today, 82 dollars retail, now costs me 60 dollars to ship a medium size box to the East Coast (and, that is WITH the EBay Discount). My Large boxes are now shipping at nearly 90 dollars (55 dollars anywhere in the U.S., back in 2020). Means I will have to raise my price on the listings again.
By creating the death of Energy Independence, the Biden Administration is effectively killing small Business. Consumers can only afford to pay so much for goods, and everything has a "selling point".
Shipping Carriers will ALWAYS raise their prices to meet rising fuel costs (and that includes the U.S. Postal Service).
Just had to get that off my chest...now, back to our regularly scheduled program!
Also DEF will be effected as all urea products are an issue. We are working on getting a couple of the old tractors up and running in case getting DEF for the newer ones becomes a problem and because parts for everything have been hit and miss.
Ukraine.
Norseman 's Link
Nitrogen (ammonia) and phosphorus are the other top two fertilizers.
Hi, Dave, $3.99 9/10 here today.
'Ike' (Phone)'s Link
I misread something, not Ukraine.
No it won’t keep me from running the mountains for elk. Nothing will.
Keystone pipeline has nothing to do with it. If you think it does you haven’t educated yourself. It’s ok to get over that now.
The only thing that keeps a true elk hunter from pursuing his passion is either not drawing a license or a body that can no longer do it.
That is simply not true...
Matt
Which, as mule pointed out, might be a great thing. Unless the increased costs has economies suffering. You might not have a job by September.
Matt
Another incorrect statement. That extra few hundred bucks is the price of the tag, cost of food, the cost of whatever normally budgeted for. It's also the same cost for vehicle insurance and any other normal "soap, dope, and rope" required to run a household. Sudden increases in fuel price isn't something you normally budget for when it comes to luxury activity.
No wonder today's young adults suffer from extreme high debt and the lack of understanding in financial literacy with guidance like that...
That was exactly my point. Most young adults have no concept of living within their means. If their budgets are so tight that inflationary pressures cause them to change their travel plans, then traveling is probably not what they should be focused on.
Many guys, here, don't bat an eye at buying a new bow, or the latest and greatest camo outfit, every year. Yet, an increase in travel costs is suddenly a deal breaker? I'll believe it when I see it this fall.
Matt
What May affect people is the cost of gas all year long! They will spend more money for gas every day before and after the hunt. So that extra cost will add up and keep some from making the trip to hunt.
I don't think anyone disputes that inflation hurts lower income families more. But, to claim you're sympathizing for them, while soaking up rays and drinking Pina coladas on a beach in Hawaii, comes across a little shallow to me.
Matt
We have a house on Sanibel Island booked for the month of May. It's the same place we've rented for the last 6 years. It's an older place and not extravagant, but it has 4 beds/4 baths, pool, and a dock, so it meets our needs. We invite family and friends to join us. They usually kick in a few $$ to help pay for the rent and groceries. It's become our favorite annual trip.
I usually like to make a quick solo trip down there, at this time of year, mostly to insure my boat is in good running order for our May trip, and also to knock the winter rust off my fly casting stroke. The tarpon arrive around this time, and the early bite can be explosive. I've always been able to find a bed somewhere on the Island for this trip in the past, but not this year. The Island is packed to the gills like I've never seen it before. So, I'll probably just wait for our May trip. But, again, that's all first world problems, right?
I hope you catch some tasty waves, bro, while you're stressing over the plight of the average working folks.
Matt
And it's just beginning.....
You really can't fix stupid!!!
'Ike' (Phone)'s Link
Thank goodness for my onlyfans side gig.
ND String Puller's Link
Mail in voting works real well, doesn't it?
I’ve got a diesel that costs $161 and change to fill up yesterday. It wasn’t empty when I started.
This is awesome.
What we are b****ing about on this thread today will seem like the good 'ol days in the near future.
But, of course, the same hand-wringers who have been calling for Biden to shut off the Russian oil spigot since the invasion, will now howl like monkeys when fuel prices go even higher.
Matt
And just getting another job that pays more isn't necessarily a reality either, especially when fuel price is increasing faster than votes changing for biden at 2 a.m. on election night...
The Biden administration held rare in-person meetings with Venezuelan officials in Caracas over the weekend to discuss letting Venezuela start selling crude oil on the open market again as part of an effort to address a surge in oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine. Pressure is mounting for the U.S. to ban imports of Russian oil, and Reinaldo Quintero, president of the association representing Venezuelan oil companies, said that the South American nation could ramp up production to eventually replace the crude the U.S. currently gets from Russia. The U.S. once got much of its imported oil from Venezuela, until the Trump administration cut it off as it attempted to drive out the authoritarian government of President Nicolás Maduro. Russian energy companies and banks helped Venezuela continue exporting oil. [The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal]
You might wanna trim that engine up before you pull it anywhere, though. ;-)
Matt
We won't be much good to the planet or climate or anything if we are in turmoil with a bad economy and unaffordable energy.
I turned the lower unit on my first boat’s 150 Merc into a plow on more than one occasion. With this boat, and my RV after driving off with a door awning out, I now walk around both and make sure everything is in travel position. I can’t remember stuff as I get older but maybe I got a little smarter….. Maybe….
12yards's Link
Yeah, sure...
Nice boat Tilzbow! I won’t like putting gas in my truck and my little 150 Suzuki. Add another 250 hp to feed would suck.
Matt
"Let's go get him!"
That 400 Verado does suck to the tune of 1 MPG at WOT (wide open throttle for non-boaters) but she sure is fun! I found a gauge on my Solix that shows she’s drinking 10 to 15 gallons per hour. So, you gotta figure those four 350 Suzukis in your picture are burning about 40 to 50 gallons per hour when they’re wide open. I didn’t really understand why boats had such big fuel tanks until I filled my friend’s 26’ North River at the dock a few years ago and found we’d burned 120 gallons in 3 days of ocean fishing and he’s “only” got a single 300….
True 1st world problems… What’s going on in Ukraine makes our little problems easier to deal with! I definitely feel for those living paycheck to paycheck. This crap is definitely going to impact them in a way worse way than me cutting back on fishing a day or two a month or thinking twice above driving 2,500 round trip miles to hunt an elk.
Kind of like people that pay $8k for a guided hunt using $5k worth of gear then bitching about a $250 meat processing fee?
Yes he is a bubble head, but he did not lie. So many hated Trump so bad, for whatever silly reason, they would not vote for him.... Well now you made your bed, lay in it
You know he's done such a good job at getting rid of them that we're producing a million more barrels a day now vs. when Trump left office.
You can't put a price on fun, but maybe you can get priced out of it. We'll see.
Who knows if it will hit $7 in my area, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all seeing $5 or $5.50 regular unleaded by Memorial Day weekend
Glad I bought a Toyota Prius for a daily driver In late March 2020 the week after the whole world shut down for $2700.00
At current prices I’m saving about $160 per month leaving my Tacoma parked in the garage
I don’t know what “hold oil executives accountable” means so I won’t comment on it. But none of the other points Mr. Bongino raised have actually happened.
"Tuesday’s release followed talks in Caracas on Saturday as the Biden administration sought ways to stave off the impact of soaring U.S. gas prices spurred by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the West’s efforts to punish Moscow for it.
Engagement with Maduro, a longtime U.S. foe, was also aimed at gauging whether Venezuela is prepared to distance itself from Russia." — Reuters
What Biden's actual policy moves have done to fossil fuel production aren't crushing things but certainly aren't helping either. We should be in an operation Warp Speed 2 to get oil, gas, and coal production cranked up. Going "green" is fine but we need to be healthy and strong to make the journey.
If you decide to only eat non-GMO veggies and free-range chickens you grow yourself, thats fine. Bad idea to toss all your other food and swear off the grocery store the day you plant the seeds and buy some chicks. You need to eat and have strength to tend the garden, care for the chicks, fight off the foxes and be prepared when your crops fail or a big hail storm kills your chickens while they range freely.
I think the most asinine thing I’ve heard is people throwing blame at policies that haven’t even been enacted.
Demand has skyrocketed over the last few years as the post pandemic economy has heated up. Are you going to give credit to Biden for a strong economy and strong demand? I’m certainly not, because just like on the supply side, he’s done next to nothing to alter the equation. But by your logic he’s gotta have something to do with the red hot economy.
I see a lot of people like to parrot what our favorite politicians and our favorite talking heads say. This is the height of intellectual laziness. There’s more to the world and what’s happening than Biden.
I didn’t vote for Biden. I think he - and his energy policy - are terrible. I’m not making excuses for him, I’m pointing out facts. If your threshold of “blame” is “he’s in office when it happened” and you choose to ignore the complex realities of what is actually happening in the oil markets, then so be it.
I do agree the gas prices soaring are under Biden’s watch and he now owns it. However, I think there are more things to criticize Biden about that are actually his doing. The afghan withdrawal for one.
If by tax return you mean tax refund, that's merely a measure of how much you overpaid in taxes. You can always overpay more on your taxes if you want a higher refund.
I can't either, Rocky. I recommend CNBC. You have qualified anchors, essentially no political bias, and you get the market slant on all the biggest news.
To stick to the OP, can you explain the factors the affect gas prices the most in this current situation? Then relate whatever Biden had done, or not done to affect that variable…and here is the important part…back it up with facts and not just your opinion.
I will give you one. He is banning the important of Russian oil. That will/has affected gas prices.
“I’m getting more and more confident about the long-term oil strip being much higher than we had expected,” Sheffield told analysts on Thursday during a call to discuss fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 earnings.
Nonetheless, “We’re not going to change…at $100 oil, $150 oil, we’re not going to change our growth rate,” Sheffield said. “We think it’s important to return cash back to the shareholders.”
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/even-at-150-oil-pioneer-natural-to-maintain-0-5-production-growth-ceo-says/
Diamondback to keep oil output flat in 2022
Like other publicly traded producers, Diamondback has prioritized shareholder returns as the industry rebuilds from last year's pandemic-related collapse and years of excess spending prior to then. Chief executive Travis Stice pledged to return 50pc of expected free cash flow to investors starting from the fourth quarter.
Diamondback has shifted from being a company that consumes capital to one that returns capital, Stice said. That outlook would change only if investor sentiment shifts.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2269862-diamondback-to-keep-oil-output-flat-in-2022
Devon Energy Holds the Line on Output Plan
Devon Energy Corp. will boost output no more than 5% this year -- in line with earlier estimates -- signaling discipline is holding even as oil approaches $100 a barrel.
The Oklahoma City-based shale explorer, which closed on its acquisition of rival WPX Energy Inc. in January last year, will keep production in the range of 570,000 to 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. On the low end, that’s flat production; on the high end, it’s on par with the 5% raise analysts had been expecting.
“We will remain extremely disciplined by prioritizing value over the pursuit of volume,” Chief Executive Officer Rick Muncrief said Tuesday in a statement announcing year-end results.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/devon-energy-stands-by-pledge-not-to-boost-2022-output-quickly
Marathon Oil chooses cash returns over oil production ramp-up
Marathon Oil Corp. said oil and natural gas production won’t increase this year as it concentrates on pouring cash into dividends and share buybacks.
The shale giant announced plans to spend $1.2 billion on capital projects this year, in line with analysts’ expectations for a 20% increase from the 2021 level, according to a statement on Wednesday. The company forecasts generating more than $3 billion of free cash flow, exceeding estimates by half a billion dollars.
Marathon said it expects to exceed its commitment to return a minimum of 40% of cash from operations to investors, assuming oil prices average around $60 a barrel or higher. Per-share adjusted earnings of 77 cents exceeded the average estimate by 22 cents.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/2/17/marathon-oil-chooses-cash-returns-over-oil-production-ramp-up/
Damnit, Biden!!
This thread is about gas prices, so that's what I'm focused on. The reality is that current gas prices have WAY more to do with Russia and about twenty other things than it does about climate change initiatives or the current admins energy policy.
Come back and tell me when your solution to climate change is a roadmap to achieving the desired goal. Currently you can’t do it so!
That's not true. There are plenty of roadmaps out there. It all depends on what your energy transition related goals are. Lots of ways to measure progress, and you've left an open-ended timeline on things so there's plenty of time to deliver these roadmaps (regardless of what your goals are). This will be a multi-decade journey and the pace at which me move is going to matter a lot in terms of the economic impact of the transition.
Where do you think they’re going to get the money from for the climate initiative?
Our company has made it pretty clear - the cash delivered by our oil and gas activities is what is going to deliver the energy used in the future. For other companies, there are plenty of ESG dollars being invested in the hopes of funding the "next big thing."
Matt
It has much more to do with the fact that the industry grew substantially between 2010-2020 and was burned twice by price crashes. In that time, all the growth and increased output did little for investors - the margins weren't great and it took a lot of capital to keep up the growth so ultimately shareholder returns lagged just about every other industry during that time. The industry has now scaled back and is generating the same type of cash and is returning it to investors instead of reinvesting it in growth - and oil companies have been rewarded for this.
BEG you can't use demand as a reason for high gas prices. The demand is no higher than it was 2016-2019
It certainly is higher than 2016-2019 right now. This year is expected to mark the highest consumption ever - in the US and globally. Prices might cool that forecast a little, but demand is very strong right now. Supply is suppressed from record high production levels that peaked a month before the pandemic kicked off. Again, suppliers are not interested in raising output only to get burned again.
Apple, as usual? ;-)
Matt
KSFlat - another "pesky" fact for you...
I don’t think for a second that either are wrong giving the situation. Only drawing point to it to show who is behind the lagging supply issue. There is simply no rush to fix this. Higher gas prices means higher oil prices. The people making money off this are going to draw it out as much as possible. For as long as possible.
Corporate doesn’t want prices to go down. Corporate has been waiting on this exact scenario for a while. And, have zero intent of trying to correct it with any earnest. That’s life and that’s the simple facts.
The question remains, how does policy affect this. And, what role did policy play in creating this situation?
Everyone knows why we are here. Everyone knows that policy affecting investment over the long run is just icing on the cake for the puppet masters in charge of producing oil. And, it’s obvious who plays to that drum beat concerning politicians.
So, get ready. This isn’t going to work out for a while. And as it clears, they’ll be another opportunity to curtail supply to keep demand high. And, we will be right back in it.
Both parties will see to that.
Agree. Though it really has little to do with Trump's policies either. There were record O&G bankruptcies under Trump. Again, the forces driving oil and gas markets are much bigger than the man in the White House (which has been my main point all along).
As you can see, share prices reached a high in 2014, then went on a steady grind lower thru 2020. They rose sharply in 2021, and so far this year, but they are still well below the highs that were set 8 years ago. The 10-yr return on this ETF is a pathetic 1.34%, which is consistent with returns of the individual companies within its holdings.
Despite perceptions to the contrary, it really isn't a very lucrative industry to invest in.
Matt
Matt's Link
Matt
I've made note of your prediction, Shawn. So when it vanishes after you get banned again, I can remind everyone of it. But, I'm sure you know better than investors who have priced Dec 2022 crude futures contracts in the $87/barrel range. What the hell are they thinking, eh?
Matt
Noted for future reference, again.
FYI, US daily consumption has already exceeded pre-covid levels, while production is lagging behind, hence the current spike. Perhaps you missed that fact while sipping on your Pina colada in Hawaii.
Matt
I guess since all of you were in the service of this country and spend years deployed you have that luxury
Me not so much and there are so many people on this cite much more annoying than Shawn. I still can’t figure out why he is banned. Can’t be from content or we would all be banned
Also, why haven’t our reserves been tapped?!?
Saudis still tied to Russia. That's why they will not help
This administration is so anti American that it should be criminal. Probably is
Matt's Link
From the linked Reuters article: “Brent dropped more than 17%, falling to nearly $105 a barrel, after a confluence of headlines sparked a risk-off sentiment throughout markets. The UAE said it will call on its fellow OPEC+ members to boost oil output faster. At the same time, Zelenskiy reiterated to Germany’s Bild newspaper it was ready to make compromises to end the war.”
Seems the markets disagree with your guy.
Matt
I guess since all of you were in the service of this country and spend years deployed you have that luxury
Me not so much and there are so many people on this cite much more annoying than Shawn. I still can’t figure out why he is banned. Can’t be from content or we would all be banned
What the Biden excuse makers don't get is that Trumps strategy to incentivize energy independence not only lowered the cost of fuel to Americans.....but it also kept inflation in check....AND it held the profits down to the Bad actors in the world like the Saudi's and Russia.
Anything over apx. $45/ barrel is pure profit to Russia. So at an apx avg during Trumps admin of $55, they didn't have a lot of room to fool around. In comes Biden with his public war on fossil fuel and pushing clime initiatives....oil jumps up in the $80 range handing Putin Billions of dollars of massive profits on the same barrels.
PUTIN LITERALLY COULDN’T AFFORD TO INVADE UNDER TRUMP- a brilliant strategy really. With Biden and his restrictive policy in there, an invasion only helps put more profit in Putins pocket as it makes the price of oil even higher.
But Beendare.....Biden has not Restricted oil- Psaki and Harris said so. BS, thats a lie- stop listening to Psaki and get the facts; Pipeline restrictions, emission restrictions, Public statements that literally kill investment AND Access to capital on top of everything else.
HERES THE BIG PROBLEM; last time this type of thing happened was early 70's. It created a horrible depression with 18% mortgage rates....and hold onto your ankles- recession is a relative certainty, its a matter of to what degree....as its already started.
The worst part; This Dem Admin has no plan. They are parading Harris and Buttigeg around talking up E cars. Kerry is wringing his hands crying Climate Change is still worse than the invasion in Ukraine....and our almighty leader Biden solution to our problems, "Drive Slower"
Trump was a dick, egomaniac and a bully....but he was our bully, and his policy though not perfect was good for Americans [whether they realize it or not] and ABSOLUTELY prevented this Ukraine Disaster. Personally I hope Trump continues to help the American people by moving into the background and consulting on future policy. https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-consumer-prices-are-rising-their-fastest-pace-over-40-years If you don't believe me check the latest inflation gauges at the link I provided, Zero Hedge "Consumer prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years" Rant over. grin
https://americansforprosperity.org/biden-policies-raising-gas-prices/
PUTIN LITERALLY COULD AFFORD TO INVADE UNDER TRUMP- a brilliant strategy really
What were these Trump era incentives you're referencing? Curious what you think Trump actually did to keep oil prices low?
last time this type of thing happened was early 70's
The last time what type of thing happened? We saw similar oil price levels in 2008, 2011, and 2014, so not sure what other factors you're saying make this equivalent to the 1970s.
recession is a relative certainty, its a matter of to what degree....as its already started
By what measure has recession started? Not seeing it in any of the economic measures we typically use to gauge a recession (real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, etc).
Three questions that I'm genuinely interested in the answers to.
Would have been 2000/01 on the Onion Ranch...
Mint's Link
The answers are there for you to research. It only takes a modicum of understanding business and finance to see how Biden completely changed things.
Start researching with the WSJ…or the dept of energy .org for facts.
Whats your guy Bidens strategy for energy independence? Drive slower. Buy an E car? A few renewable projects doesn’t move the needle. No long term solutions from the Dems. The Dems are fumbling around with the sanctions…with Poland, its not only embarrassing but it might just drag us into a war.
TDS cure; Next time you hear someone point fingers at Trump, realize what they are really saying is;” We got nothin, no solutions”
Energy independence; if its not abundantly clear right now that this is crucial……it will to all except John Kerry shortly.
Quit playing semantics with words and timelines. You can’t claim policy doesn’t affect it then Claim bidens policy hasn’t affected it. It’s going to help slam dunk the effect of less supply, less optimism, less everything good and more of everything bad for American households.
Once again, Under the guidance of establishment, America is being held hostage to countries controlling commodities we need. Ain’t that a surprise.
The answers are there for you to research. It only takes a modicum of understanding business and finance to see how Biden completely changed things.
I work for an oil company and have a pretty good idea how this industry works. I’ve done my research and I’ve experienced it firsthand. I asked three straightforward questions.
How did Trump incentivize the industry like you claimed? The four years under Trump were some of the worst, economically speaking, in my twenty year career. Prices were weak, the industry was essentially on life support delivering poor returns, and Trump’s trade war only made life more difficult. You tout low prices…the only thing keeping prices low was oversupply, and the reason we were oversupplied is because a bunch of companies were on their last legs trying to generate some sort of cash to stay afloat. The price crash that occurred during the pandemic killed them - we had record bankruptcies in the sector. It’s the biggest reason why there’s a massive hesitancy to ramp up production at the moment. So please tell me how the industry was incentivized under Trump.
And again, what is happening now that is more like the 70s than the dates I put forward where prices were equally high?
You also said we’re in the beginning stages of a recession. I asked a simple question. Based on what? It certainly isn’t based on GDP, jobs, output, wages, etc because those are all stronger than they’ve been over the last five years. So what is it? Again, I’ve done the research you’ve somehow arrived at a different conclusion so I’d love to know what you’re seeing.
Whats your guy Bidens strategy for energy independence?
Again, he’s not my guy. I didn’t vote for him and never will. And his energy policy is far worse than Trump’s. But he has next to nothing to do with current prices, just like Trump had next to nothing to do with what was playing out in the oil markets under his watch.
And I’ll ask a fourth question (seeing as you skirted the other three, it’s a big gamble). How do you define energy independence? We were still importing energy products under Trump. It appears that we were slightly a net exporter in 2021. We’re on a trajectory to far exceed any oil and gas production levels we achieved under Trump (and also become a much greater exporter of petroleum products as well). And oil and gas is being replaced more and more by other domestically produced energy sources. So I don’t understand what people mean when they say we lost energy independence, so please enlighten me.
Again, this stuff is literally my life. I research and live it everyday. Your conclusions are not what I see, so I’d legitimately love to know how you arrived at them.
Care to be more specific? For the record, I’ve never said policy doesn’t effect prices. I’ve said the policies under Biden have done little to impact the prices in the short term as they won’t likely impact supply for multiple years (or even decades). If they remain in place, and we see domestic production start to crater years out, then yes, we can point the finger at Biden.
May or may not be the case. That said, I don’t see the harm in Beendare asking the questions and showing his work.
- increasing production levels, which will likely exceed record levels reached just prior to the start of the pandemic.
- quotes from multiple CEOs citing ambitions to keep production flat, maintain capital discipline in the face of higher oil prices, and return more money to shareholders.
- capital spending levels which support this assertion
- industry knowledge of the end-to-end oil field lifecycle and thereby the recognition that Biden’s policies targeting oil and gas operations will not impact supply for years to decades, thereby having next to no impact on current prices.
The attached article covers what is truly driving the oil markets over the last few years. It hasn’t been shifts in energy policy.
The primary reason for rising gas prices over the past year is the coronavirus pandemic and its disruptions to global supply and demand.
“Covid changed the game, not President Biden,” said Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, which tracks gasoline prices. “U.S. oil production fell in the last eight months of President Trump’s tenure. Is that his fault? No.
“The pandemic brought us to our knees,” Mr. De Haan added. … Mr. De Haan said the Biden administration was “clearly less friendly” to the industry, which may have indirectly affected investor attitudes. But overall, he said, that stance has played a “very, very small role pushing gas prices up.”
bigeasygator's Link
Nothing is gong to change,,,,, he is not going to open up any leases, or permits, and will continue to hammer the private sector, on regulations, its just that simple,
There are private companies today, that have to rewrite up their permits, because they are not gender correct. Private in Texas is pumping,,,,,,,,,,
The Climate Change crowd, would rather cover their eyes, see the dirty fuel from our enemies, than touch our own, where we doing in cleaner.
Yesterday John Kerry said that Climate change will be worse than the Ukranian war. This is what they believe. I can assure you Wind Mills would not be allowed on Marthas Vineyard, in front of Kerry or Obamas house.............................
This has been covered ad naseum. It’s because for the last 10-15 years - up to the pandemic - the industry has grown…and shareholders were awarded for that growth with essentially zilch. As Abhiram Rajendran, the head of oil market research at Energy Intelligence, said in the article I posted:
“But presidents, Mr. Rajendran said, “have very little impact on short-term supply.”
“The key relationship to watch is between companies and investors.”
Shareholders have spoken - they don’t want growth. They don’t want capital pumped back into the business. They want it returned to them.
Sure, we want more leases at our disposal for long term security. But those will do nothing in the short term and have little to do with what’s happening now.
Inclined to agree with you, but will admit I am no expert with industry experience like BEG.
Some of the biggest investors in alternative energies are big oil, and like all companies, they will chase profits. Democrat policies for years have changed investment strategies in favor of green. Without these policies, what would the returns and investment in fossils fuels have been, or what would the supply have been today without the market distorting incentives, again mainly supported for decades by Joe’s party which he has been part of for 5 decades?
Jason is probably correct that since coming into office Joe’s policies have not had time to effect the market significantly, but given his votes thru the years he shares in the blame, IMHO and non-professional opinion only.
Bias source
Like I said before, a game of semantics. Link? Look at your posts. I’ve been watching you distinguish time lines only when it suits your argument. For no other reason then to argue.
You want to see oil and gas prices go through the roof, pass that piece of legislation. Windfall profit tax would be a terrible idea.
Bias source
Why is Abhiram Rajendran a biased source? I can post the same quote from every other oil market analyst worth their salt.
Yeah, you been real quick to point out the short term when discussing Biden. But, forget about the long term. Which is where results from policy is realized.
I thought we were talking about current gas prices. Are we not? I distinguish timelines because certain things matter in the short term, and certain things matter in the long term.
People keep pointing to Biden’s energy policy - which I agree is terrible - as playing a huge roll in what is happening to gas prices now. It’s not.
We are barely a year removed from Trump being in office. I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to the energy policy and how oil and gas companies are strategizing against that landscape - nothing has really changed from when oil was in the $50/bbl range a year ago. We’ve got rig schedules that are planned out for years that haven’t significantly been adjusted. We’re approaching production levels that peaked pre-pandemic and will likely surpass them this year. In fact, the Energy Secretary was out pleading for a drastic ramp up of production. Highly unlikely oil companies plan to change course to deliver it. It will be too costly and take too long against the backdrop of what most believe is a temporary surge in prices.
You want to blame someone for current gas prices, it’s the pandemic (both the crash and now the growing demand as we recover), look towards shareholders who have pushed for restrained growth, look towards Russia. The Keystone XL and decision on the federal leasing moratorium are so far down the list of things that matter with respect to current prices.
If you legitimately thought the legislation had a chance of passing, no you wouldn’t. I said it’s a horrible piece of legislation and I give it a snowballs chance in hell of making it into law.
And what has that immediate reaction from producers been? How have we changed course right now in response to Biden’s policies?
This year they will struggle, so my food plots do not seem too important
Frank, if you don't think the fossil fuel industry has benefitted from subsides for decades, and continues to be, you may want to do a little research on the topic.
The bottom line is our energy markets have always been "distorted" by government "incentives", and will likely always be. That's why the US has historically enjoyed relatively cheap fuel costs. And make no mistake, it will be "Big Oil" leading the way into our energy future, whatever form that may take. After all, they have the resources, infrastructure, and R&D capabilities to make it happen.
Matt
Aware of it for sure. But the incentives for green distort the market away from fossils and is having an impact on what we pay at the pump.
Not judging it, just I guess stating the obvious, policies have consequences and these policies have basically been a regressive “tax”. It will be a tsunami at the polls this November unless course is reversed soon. Thanks.
Trump publicly declared he was making us energy independent- and for a short time he did and it worked to lower the price of oil and keep inflation in check. You cannot argue it didn’t, its a fact that it did.
The price of oil would drop immediately if Biden did a U turn and stated we are pulling out the stops and going to make the US energy independent.
Another fact you don’t seem to understand; Markets are not a simple supply/demand ratio…some of it is perception. We have many examples to draw from.
Another fact; Sometimes these experts are wrong. A financial guy I follow rated it a 30% chance Putin invades- huge fail. Everyone has their own biases they use to make decisions and pronouncements. Its the trait of a critical thinker not to become so convicted in your thinking.
Goldman revised their GDP growth from 3.3% to 1.75% and a 35% chance of a recession. We literally turned on a dime and there is nothing coming from the Biden admin that is going to improve our situation.
THE SCARY PART…and it almost guarantees things are going to get a lot worse is this admins focus. They are not focused on inflation..or rampant crime…or legit immigration policy. Their focus; Harris proclaiming E cars …Buttigeg proclaiming we are installing more E car charging stations….Kerry wringing his hands stating Climate Change is more important than whats going on with Putin/Ukraine.
How are things going to improve when we have an admin that can’t find their ass with both hands?
As I said in the investing thread….we have to look forward and prep for the future. A slowdown is imminent, plan accordingly.
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I will challenge that point. Nobody has provided a consistent or meaningful definition of what it means to be energy independent. Can you define “energy independence?” By what measure did we achieve it?
Goldman revised their GDP growth from 3.3% to 1.75% and a 35% chance of a recession. We literally turned on a dime and there is nothing coming from the Biden admin that is going to improve our situation.
So, Goldman expects us to deliver the same GDP growth that Trump did (it was cut from 2% to 1.75% on Q4 to Q4 basis, not 3.3%), and they see a 65% chance that we don’t fall into a recession. Got it.
I understand plenty about markets and the role of perception. What is the consensus perception on oil prices and oil production over the next few years right now?
Grey Ghost's Link
I know that doesn't fit the popular narrative, here, but they are facts.
Matt
I still think equating the net petroleum trade to energy independence ignores a whole host of other factors that should be part of the independence equation. We became a net exporter in 2020 because we fell deep into recession and consumption dropped to 25 year lows and we did not need the foreign supply. I for the life of me can’t figure out why this is a data point to be celebrated.
It's really not that difficult to understand, IMO. US oil production dropped by 1 billion barrels a day during 2020 and 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels. That was due to an equal drop in consumption during that period, not because of any new energy policies. Now, demand has suddenly ramped back up to pre-pandemic levels, and production hasn't caught up. As the ConocoPhillips chairman said in the video I posted above, it takes 8-12 months for new production to reach the markets. Combine that with the impact of Russia's production no longer hitting the markets, and we have a major imbalance in the supply/demand formula right now. We can tap into reserve inventories for a few months to ease the pressure on prices some, but that's a short term fix. I hate to say it, but I doubt we'll see a significant drop in prices at the pump until 2023, or maybe longer.
Matt
I can now understand why many get frustrated with a few of us here who might act like we know more than we actually do, thanks to google:-)
Most of the folks here are a little longer in the tooth. They have witnessed market gyrations in different industries over decades and know some have been made worse by bad policy decisions. They are smart enough to piece it all together without the spewing of book smart/industry experience know it alls, including myself. My apologies! Life experiences are the best education.
Hope to relinquish my position on a certain list to someone else.
;-)
Believing Biden’s energy policies are bad (they are IMO) and believing they aren’t impacting current prices (they aren’t IMO) don’t have to be mutually exclusive beliefs.
I know it’s easy to regurgitate whatever you hear from your politicians about the pain at the pump - energy independence, Keystone XL, etc - but that’s all they are - political talking points, and they mean little when it comes to the dynamics of what is playing out in the market at the moment.
Also, energy policy is only one part of the price. Foreign policy failures have big effect as well.
I don't claim to be an expert on the energy markets. However, I do admit to listening, learning, and believing what I hear from people who are. CNBC has become my preferred source for information. During the day, the vast majority of people they interview are corp executives of successful companies, who explain the dynamics of things that affect their businesses. IMO, on balance, they offer an informed perspective without politically biased opinions, and I try to pass that info on. If that earns me "top ten" honors, here, I'll proudly wear that cap.
Have a great day, my friend.
Matt
Of course the president can affect oil.
We have a current admin with skewed priorities. We were headed to higher inflation and recession already, the Ukraine situation only exacerbated it.
AAA did a study; 59% of people say they will adjust their lifestyle at $4 gas. 75% say they will adjust for sure at $5 gas. Its a relative certainty its going to affect folks, especially the lower and middle class. Diesel here is bumping between $6.69-$7. Gas at $6+. We don’t need tea leaves to see this is going to be bad.
I’m no econ expert but the signs are there. An admin that is clueless. The Dems pushed a huge spending bill through- today- totally ignoring inflation- no cure in sight. The reps are no better, capitulating.
The economists and financial gurus are perennial optimists- they always underestimate these downturns. Be careful who you listen to especially risking real money.
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Never have I ever said perceptions don’t matter. You’re putting words in my mouth. What I’ve said I’m saying is that for the oil companies who have to base their strategies on actions being taken by the administration, the people trading oil, and for people whose job it is to assess their impact on the oil markets, the overwhelming perception is the administration’s actions won’t do much to move prices in the short term. Furthermore, there’s really nothing he can do domestically that will provide any relief.
Why do you keep avoiding the questions I’ve asked? How about answering just one…how would you define energy independence? Still waiting on someone to adequately define it.
There are many elements to fossil fuel production. (Exploration, transport, refining, etc) When it comes to exploration, the industry has ALWAYS been volatile. (I grew up in what is now the heart of the Bakken oil fields. ) We aren't like Louisiana. The oil economy pivots on exploration. (Not refining) We only have one small refinery in the state. Prior to Dakota Access Pipeline, the oil from Bakken was sold at a discount. (~$7 per barrel as memory serves) Trains were primary transport from much of 201x's. But we still need many more pipelines. (Our oil has lots of natural gas.) Due to insufficient pipeline capacity, we are flaring off gas. (10-15% of all extracted gas) (Yes the same gas which runs your stove, heats your water, or runs your power plant) We have giant bunsen burners across the oil fields. Why is this worth noting? What is one greatest initiatives of this administration? (And Obama admin) Being green.
What oil companies hate is sharp valleys or spikes. They prefer consistency. Remember what I said about long term certainty? No oil exploration or fossil fuel transportation company is going to investing in infrastructure (Drilling or pipelines) unless the long term packback (>10 years) is there.
The regulatory environment and anti fossil fuel rhetoric of the Obama administration (and now Biden) is a wet blanket on pipeline construction and exploration. Whether it is felt in other parts of the country, I don't know. But I can tell you in ND the moment Trump was elected, the wet blanket was removed. (Moreso psychological) Did I vote for Trump? Yes. Is he he loud mouth blowhard who says dumb@ss sh!t and cannot keep his cakehole shut? YES! But from a policy standpoint, oil exploration and pipeline construction companies had greater confidence their projects would reach maturity. The pandemic (tied to lack demand) derailed that momentum.
Oil companies (all facets ) have cash on hand. Could they spend it? Yes. Will they (on industry expansion)? No. Can they borrow money to expand production? No. Why. Long term economic uncertainty. Same as companies are reluctant to spend on capital expenditures, lending institutions will not borrow money to these companies because they see the same politically stifling long term outlook the companies do. So they take cash on hand and and channel it to shareholders.
Today, we have an administration which still continues to worship at the alter of the green movement at the expense of encouraging domestic exploration, transportation and refining. So much so the administration is willing to court different totalitarian countries for oil.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-europe-saudi-arabia-f30cd495adf6a7c58b269d508f3007b2
https://www.kvrr.com/2022/03/07/burgum-biden-plan-to-buy-oil-from-venezuela-iran-absolutely-absurd/
The #1 thing the US could do for long term economic and national security is take the gloves off domestic exploration, transportation and production. Putin (Who is a thug) was laughing while the west was worshipping a teenage Swedish girl. We need to learn from Putin's approach. (Again, he is a commie A Hole who needs a sudden case of lead poisoning) He got western Europe addicted to Russia' oil/gas supplies. How can the US buy oil from this commie? Because our domestic policies and regulation is so F'd up it makes more sense (economically) for refineries to buy from the commie. The US (and moreso Europe) has been stupid enough to go down this path once. Are we stupid enough to hitch our cart to foreign supplies again? Sadly, yes. (Again, how the current president can affect the market/supply) The current admin refuses to even acknowledge they are on the wrong road. Much less have the balls to reverse course.
I covered a lot of real estate. Hopping off my soap box. I didn't know I was going to be this good today! LOL!
With todays oil prices why don't they drill? They cannot turn on a dime. The bulk of the workers were from out of state. They moved. How hard is it to hire today? (in any occupation!)
I agree with you on nuclear. But why is a plant permit the same cost ($5M) whether it is a "standard" plant or one of the small plants? (IE What Gates is trying to build in Wyoming) Because the political class wants it that way. (Full disclosure. I was a subcontractor at a nuke plant for 20 years)
The bulk of the green movement is a religion. If you are not on board with their preachings, you are a heretic and you are to be shunned by the believers.
With that said, the oil industry under Trump was skating by. As we’ve discussed, the ROI was generally terrible across the entirety of the industry - particularly at $50/bbl. Yes, there were bright spots, but you saw what happened once prices fell. The industry got hammered. Biden can take the gloves off, but it’s not really going to change anything from a producer perspective. There are plenty of idled rigs and plenty of permitted activity that is going to stay sidelined.
Drycreek’s comment about labor is spot on too - we laid off about 40% of this industry over the last five years. You can just flip a switch and turn back on that capability. Even if you could, there’s major hesitation about growing too, big too fast.
No one thinks prices are going to stay above $100/bbl for long. Most companies are still screening projects WAY below $100/bbl. If it’s profitable at say $50/bbl, everything else is just upside. Last thing you want to do is start ramping up and bringing the marginal projects on (those that are profitable above, say, $90/bbl), only to have prices drop out of the sky again.
Been there, done that. Shareholders are making sure we don’t make the same mistake again.
Do we really have to define Energy independence for you BEG?
We could put a small surcharge on the oil we have to help fund the build out of a reliable grid with Nuclear and Renewables.
Nuclear is not the same as the reactors built 40 yrs ago- technology has come a long way. Compare a 1980's car to one of today...night and day difference.
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Yes. If it’s being a net exporter of petroleum products, that’s a terrible metric to measure the health of our domestic energy supply. We were a net exporter in 2021 and likely going to be a net exporter in 2023. Are y’all gonna applaud Biden when that happens again?
He has essentially nothing to do with it and it doesn’t mean much at the end of the day, but the way y’all fawn over Trump for this country being a net exporter in 2020 (in a year when domestic consumption hit 25 year lows and oil production dropped by a million barrels a day), I can’t wait to see what happens when we hit all time production records and are a net exporter of petroleum in 2023.
Does that mean Biden will have redelivered energy independence?
I can’t say if wind is more profitable then other energy sources. But I have worked in wind construction since the late 90’s. A lot has changed in that industry over the years. We went from putting up .75 MW units in the 90’s to 5 MW units today. Hub heights in the 90’s were around 60 meters. Now days projects are looking at hub heights in the 130 meter range. The higher you go the more wind you have.
There are numerous variables that control investors ROI. Turbine type, maintenance contracts, PPA’s, land leases etc. The investors I have talked to are looking for a 7% ROI after 30 years.
People have absolutely no clue on how much we use petroleum for energy and non-energy product needs in the US.
Elections have consequences, Joe is doing exactly what he proposed, just like his opponents will swing it the other way if they get elected. Some are saying the mid-terms will be a white wash for the Dems(if it's a fair election).
I just drove through Iowa yesterday, the majority of the wind turbines had to be shut down due to the high winds, So cold isn't the only issue that will shut down that type of "green energy" grid. Petroleum is then the backup (below zero again today). Global warming for mid-March...what is the optimum temperature of the Earth again???
Its going to add $1,000 a month to my one companies Direct OH…and apx another $1,000 in material cost surcharges. According to Biden I am supposed to eat that and not pass it on to Clients.
Record inflation that many young guys here have not seen in their lifetime, Mr Biden…Whats your plan?
Driving slower hasn’t moved the needle…..
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And guess what gang? IT'S JUST BEGINNING!!!! A year from now this will seem like the good 'ol days.
Democrats couldn't run diarrhea.
bigeasygator's Link
Oil companies regularly lose money. In four of the past ten years, the oil industry lost money. Big oil lost $76 billion just two years ago. Therefore, they are proceeding with caution. They are maintaining more capital discipline. They aren’t rushing to do projects with the assumption that oil prices will remain above $100/bbl. They are doing projects with the assumption that in a year or more when the projects might pay off, oil prices will have retreated to well below $100/bbl.
If North America has oil that’s not being exploited, that seems like a good place to start.
For those that think the Keystone “XL” would of fixed this are wrong. That was only the final leg from Cushing to the Gulf. Those refiners would of benefited from the better price feed stocks.
Refineries are not real profitable assets right now. They are hard to run, expensive and come with high risk. Shell divested 100% of their assets the last two years. The RFS which requires ethanol blending costs these companies millions annually. You know why? Because the rule was implemented when we though we needed to blend ethanol to save oil. Who pays for that? All of us.
So ask yourself, why do we still blend ethanol? Politics, simply politics.
If any of you have noticed, nobody is building “new” refineries if anything the number is getting smaller.
Lord help us!!!
The immediate future looks bleak for more inflation with no viable solutions from any of our politicians, Dem or Reps.
They all piled in on the $1.5trillion bill last week- 600 add ons jacking that up is only going to exacerbate inflation. NY’s Schumer added 59 all by himself- shameful! They are spending like a bunch of drunken sailors ( my apologies to all sailors)
I’m positioned in energy, mining and commodity ETFs, not so much to make money but to hedge the losses we are sure to see in everything else. I did buy a 2x inverse ETF on the European index last week on the uptick which surprisingly has yet to payoff in a big way, its only been a few days. Im 50% in cash and a bunch of tech stocks and ETFs are in my buy range but I’m on hold. As I said in the previous stock thread, I think its going to get worse for the US economy and it could get a lot worse.
If anyone has ideas on how to hedge the upcoming recession, Im all ears. Installing a Diesel tank at my construction yard is not an option.
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Unfortunately it was in Venezuela and Russia.
$116 to fill it. I love my truck but I hate it. Lol
FUEL; Its holding at $5.99 for regular 87 octane here, $6.69 diesel
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Hey, Shawn Magyar, did you notice crude futures are around $96/barrel this morning? That's just a little shy of your prediction. LOL!
Matt
Down ~30% from peak in just a week. Future contracts at year end going for closer to $80-85/bbl. This volatility is why you’ll see continued capital discipline on the part of the oil industry.
Omicron in China dropping demand. China shutting down and locking up. That would be just like part my quote like FNN! Guess you like that assessment?
Our Top General Mark Milley told congress and the world Russia would take Ukraine in 3 days! This guy is Military counsel to Potus!!
Does not bother me a bit the folks wont have to 10/gal gas thanks to Chinese Omicron.
Do very well when oil stays at 50 or over.
With Raskin out of Fed Chair position now. Fossils fuels are much safer for all. Thank Joe Manchin!
Funny how Russia sanctioned sanctioned Milley, Hillary, Joebama, Austin, Hunter.
Thank goodness oil prices are coming down.
Its worth having a tube of 5200, the marine sealant in your truck around here.
Some of you need to go get shawn exorcised from living rent free in some of your heads. Kind of embarrassing I would think
Lots of folks getting plastic tanks punched in cities while they are at work. Time to put a 1/4” steel skid plate around bottom of tank!
Flex seal baby. Get you home!
Cuz the Gvt thought giving 100% and then some for so long they do let me live Rent Free.
Then of course i took care the rest. Lets see what market does after the Fed chairs two day conference? The car i have in Hawaii has a 10gal tank EV hybrid. Think ive burned two gallons in 250 miles. Perfect timing for highest has blip in history.
By time i get back maybe the cChinese Omicron be bad enough itll drop oil demand like Covid did?
Drop it lolw low so we all can hit the High Country with single strings in September!
Inflation is just for "regular" people...this Congress thing sounds like a really great gig!
Matt
See you at Worlds this summer? Dollar a point ? $20 a point in shoot-offs Titterbaby? Single strings only in WV?
Liver shots may get you an 8 at elk sized targets?.
Shawn bothers you and some others. Which in a free country is ok
But there is not much enjoyment that is evident in your posts to Shawn
No worries either way. He ain't going anywhere and you and others will continue to care about that
On another subject that actually counts. When do you head for Florida to chase Tarpon? Did you get the live bait artificial worked out? I still have problems with redfish on artificials. Live bait is easy but I just can't make the soft baits work on the big ones. Trout all day long, LOL !
Matt.
A complete narcissist. Look at his last post.
So that makes ok? Just accept it? Maybe people need to stand up to the unempathetic BS behavior and call it out. Maybe the world would be a better place and there wouldn’t be so much division in this country if people call it out. If you stay silent with the divisive rhetoric then your are part of the problem as much as those that push divisions IMO.
The things we are doing are the opposite of solutions. Its not incompetence. There's plenty of that in government but we are far beyond just making stupid decisions. Normal goals like America being free, prosperous, secure, a great ally and a terrible enemy aren't shared by people making decisions for us.
Then the Dem geniuses in Congress are proposing printing money to give people a rebate ( blatant pandering for votes and sure to make inflation worse. Hey dumbasses, you kicked off inflation with your last free money handout during Covid)
Another proposal is to jack the oil companies taxes for their gouging which is an obvious, “ don’t look at our crummy policy, look at THEM)
With idiots like this running the country it’s going to be a miracle if we don’t go into a major recession.
Now we have Gropin' Joe, who's been a DC hack for his entire working life. What could possibly go wrong?
I'll take mean tweets ANYDAY!!!
bigeasygator's Link
When asked for the primary reason publicly traded oil producers are restraining growth, pressure to maintain capital discipline was overwhelmingly at the top of the list (~60% of respondents labeled it as the main reason). Government regulations came in last on the list with ~5% of respondents saying they're the primary reason for the lack of production growth.
Matt
Of course oil execs are worried about Capital discipline…don’t you realize that is politically driven? Biden could drop the price of oil with a simple policy switch- Nope, instead he is going to unleash high prices and more inflation on the avg person.
Now; Giving $400 checks for gas rebates like the IDIOT proposal from Newsome is only going to juice inflation and do nothing to help gas prices….
Unfortunately, many voters aren’t smart enough to see whats happening here………and they are easily fooled.
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Matt
His policies are terrible. I’m not making excuses for them. I’m saying - along with the vast majority of oil executives - that they have very little to do with the current supply situation in the country. You, for some reason, continue to fight this fact despite people far more in the know telling you this is what is driving the current situation.
Of course oil execs are worried about Capital discipline…don’t you realize that is politically driven?
This has nothing to do with politics. It has everything to do with shareholder expectations and the fact that the industry generated terrible returns to their investors while in growth mode from 2010-2020.
Biden could drop the price of oil with a simple policy switch
And what policy switch would instantly bring millions of new barrels to market in the next few months?
Matt
Glunt seemed to be jealous of the gas prices in Russia and Venezuela in his post further up, so there's likely at least one person on here in favor of government subsidized gasoline.
Independent producers, defined by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as those with less than $5 million in annual retail oil and gas sales or with less than an average of 75,000 barrels of crude oil refined on a daily basis, are responsible for producing 83 percent of America’s oil and 90 percent of America’s natural gas. Unlike their larger corporate rivals such as Exxon, these comparatively small producers are ill-equipped to adapt to the cascade of taxes and regulations from the Biden administration to keep their operations sustainable. (comment from these small producers) “There are 4,621 permits to drill awaiting approval by the Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management. Your appointees could approve these permits now, enabling communities to [move] forward with development,” the coalition wrote. “So, yes, Mr. President, your administration is ‘holding the industry back’ in direct contradiction to your statements last week when you said your administration was not… We stand ready to assist in any way possible.” [Article From The Federalist, "Smaller Oil And Gas Producers Blast Biden’s Blame Game On High Energy Prices"]
UNBELIEVABLE; The Biden admin didn't invite input from the folks responsible for 83% of the supply....thats good leadership? Heck, they don't even understand the problems they are creating......
Biden had an E car summit...and didn't invite Tesla. Anybody seeing a trend here?
It reeks of the Obama quote, "You didn't build this" and the Dems prevailing loathing of business in America.
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And Shawn, you clearly need to do more research to understand the relationship between spot and future prices. You do realize they converge as they reach the future contract’s delivery date, don’t you?
You post a Market Watch internet chart like that tells the story-OMG, Dude, its embarrassing.
The Capital issues you copied are POLICY RELATED.....you don't seem to be getting any of this. Granted its a complex issue and Biden and the Dem's in Congress are only part of the problem....but they are a big part.
Please explain; How is the democrat solution of giving out Billions to people going to solve the fuel crisis and high prices without Juicing inflation?
From what I understand, those permits are approved but they’re in the “less than desireable” locations, so there isn’t much value in drilling on those permits. Hence the lack of desire to execute them.
That chart had nothing to do with you. It was directed at Shawn’s prove predictions, which are way more bullish than what the market thinks.
The Capital issues you copied are POLICY RELATED.....you don't seem to be getting any of this.
I encourage you to stop listening to politicians and start listening to company executives, industry analysts, and institutional investors as they are the ones whose voice matters on this. It has nothing to do with politics. Investors don’t want free cash dumped into growth - they want it returned to them.
Please explain; How is the democrat solution of giving out Billions to people going to solve the fuel crisis and high prices without Juicing inflation?
I never said it would solve anything. I think it’s a bad idea.
From what I understand, those permits are approved but they’re in the “less than desireable” locations, so there isn’t much value in drilling on those permits. Hence the lack of desire to execute them.
And hence my comment about the unapproved permits. It’s very likely that even if they were approved tomorrow they’d sit unused like those 9,000 permits. Some would be deemed not great opportunities. For the attractive ones, companies would very likely pace investment (again, capital discipline) in a way that left them more resilient to any future price shocks and kept employment and other supply chain variables stable.
Matt
*Predicted* spot prices. And after one day, they’re already off 8%.
He did propose more financial penalties on producers which should make prices drop...hey...wait a second????
Worst quarter on markets in two years.
New tax increase in budget would be largest ever in US history
NG double in price, Oil tripled in price, helium has sky rocketed in price
New budget wants to tax fossil fuels even more
new Polls for Joseph Biden at 35-39%
Powell refuses to raise rates the required 5% over current inflation rate to curb it and are still printing QE money.
This is about as bad as American's have ever seen it in 90 years
Wants to remove title 42 right during the high illegal migrant travel season.
JJ jr
There are so many examples of Trump making strategic pro active moves…where this current admin is totally ‘Finger to the Wind’ reactive.
These hacks couldn't run diarrhea! Just look at any Democrat run state or major city....clusterfarces....EVERY one of them!
bigeasygator's Link
He did, but it was meant as more of a handout to the producers getting hammered during the pandemic as an attempt to keep them afloat. Still ended up with record oil company bankruptcies under his watch.
“The small to midsize oil producers, which are the focus of the initial crude oil purchase, employ thousands of Americans,” said Under Secretary of Energy Mark W. Menezes. “These businesses have been particularly hard hit by recent events but under President Trump’s leadership, we are taking swift action to assist hard hit producers and deliver strong returns to the taxpayer.”
But, I suspect you know that BEG. Which is why you had to counter the good by claiming record failure rates of oil companies under bud watch. What a flippin’ one sided political pendent you are.
Let’s not blame Covid or liberal policy during Covid for the downturn. Let’s blame Trump. Atta’ boy.
LOL that’s rich. You guys remember when Republicans actually believed in fiscal conservatism and didn’t applaud government bailouts? I miss those days.
JJjr
Article from “The Hill”, excerpt:
Last September, as the Build Back Better legislation was being considered in Congress, many members worried about the inflationary pressure of injecting an additional $2.4 trillion into the economy on top of the $4.1 trillion committed to the American Rescue Plan and the Cares Act.
When it looked like the Democratic majority might include enough deficit hawks to scuttle the bill, Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz rounded up another 16 of the 36 living American Nobel Prize economists to declare, in an open letter, that whatever upward pressure on prices all this new money might bring there was no threat of inflation. Forget what government statistics were already signaling. Many non-Nobel economists recognized that a clear case of demand-pull inflation was already underway. The price of used cars, the vehicles people buy when new cars seem unaffordable, led a clearly rising consumer price index.
The Nobelists’ letter showed that those signing had bought Team Biden’s novel argument that its enormous expansion of social welfare programs really was just a different form of infrastructure investment, just like roads and bridges
WRONG!
I even mentioned it to the cashier, and she was like “meh…”.
This is what I paid two weeks ago in Jersey
Apparently they think Russia will become desperate for cash.
Gasoline yesterday at $4.239 here. (Central MA) Diesel is over $6/gal.
Was talking to a heating oil delivery guy a few days ago, their price per gallon jumped last week, a lot. Good thing the weather is warming up...
BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATS TO THE RESCUE. Just in; The Biden is floating proposals to BUY BACK OIL this fall for the SPR that he just released. This immediately jacked the price of oil to $110/barrel.
The current crop of Democrat politicians in charge are clueless.
Can anyone be this stupid? Sell SPR….then buy back higher……or are they actually screwing us on purpose because you literally can’t initiate worse policy decisions if you tried.
bigeasygator's Link
That’s not what the market believes. Good news is you can put your money where your mouth is as futures contracts are all priced lower than current spot prices.
Why we filled up the reserves at top dollar… I have no non-cynical ideas….
I just love the way you guys can spot every bad, corrupt or self-serving decision when anyone from “the other party” does something vile or stupid…. and turn such a blind eye when it’s one from your own party committing the offense.
No clue what half of this statement even means, but it’s quite hilarious you talk about competent energy investment while at the same time implying CVX’s current valuation (or any oil company) is based on current spot prices. They are not, which is why folks like Buffett still see CVX as a buy even if oil prices come off these highs.
And Ike, care to share what a “fair” amount of profit for these companies to make is? Their margins are about 10%…far less than most industries. So how much should their profits be when they’re spending $150-200+ bln to fund their business?
Nothing is going to change for the better for a while. Plagiarized capitalism will see to that. Established political parties have done well enslaving every single American alive.
These are the same idiots saying policy isn’t affecting your fuel prices. We will see come fall. But, it’ll be something else then. Not policy. SMH
Simply put, no, it doesn’t. All you have to do is take a look at the BEP of various basins and realize margins matter. If they didn’t, all of these lines would be the same height. Yes, more volumes can deliver more profit, but it often comes at eroded margin as companies will take the good stuff first.
And I haven’t seen anyone say policy doesn’t matter. The only idiots I see are the ones who think policy is the reason for the current pain at the pump, yet can’t point to any policy that is actually limiting production. For the hundredth time, it isn’t. I encourage you to google “oil industry capital discipline” and see where that takes you. There’s a quarterly report from the Dallas Fed that surveys energy executives. Feel free to see what they are saying about the primary reason they’re not growing production. But hey, I’m sure you know more than me (a petroleum engineer who has worked in the industry for 20 years) and you know better than the countless executives running these oil businesses, WVM.
Two more charts. Here’s the company I work for showing quarterly production vs profit and margins. As you can see quite clearly, volumes do not dictate profit. Anything else you want me to show you’re wrong about?
Hmmm, and prices are going up as I predicted…..
Time to reevalute what you think you know, eh?
FYI, its a terrible situation that costs the avg American dearly. I’m not trying to rub your nose in it, just trying to warn folks to plan accordingly.
There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye. Today, Biden made the waery claim, “There are xxxxx oil leases that aren’t being used” trying to blame the oil companies for his own terrible policy.
Bidens policy statements before he was inaugurated caused the price of oil to move. Then it continued to move up in the $80 plus range which put enough money in Putins pocket that he could invade Ukraine. The other thing Biden ( actually its Obama, Soros and ? that are really calling the shots) did was restrict supply so Putin knew that if he invaded the price of oil would jump even more giving him another 30% of profits.
A double Bubble as the Brits call it. Trump knew that when the oil is flowing worldwide, the price per barrel moderates. Russian cost per barrel is $42 or so. Trumps policy kept Russian (and Saudi, Venezuelan) profits low. Putin didn’t have the funds to invade anyone or at least it would be tougher. Biden giving him a $40 per barrel profit and later $80/barrel profit…..it tipped the scales in Putins pocketbook.
Policy is a key driver in price at the pump….no matter how much Biden tries to claim otherwise. Biden claims to open the market…but his liberal progressive Fed agencies stonewall anything fossil fuels.
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No they didn’t.
The other thing Biden ( actually its Obama, Soros and ? that are really calling the shots) did was restrict supply
In the short term, no he hasn’t. We are producing more oil as a country now than when Trump left office. That said, neither of those two men (Trump/Biden) have much of anything to do with that fact.
Biden giving him a $40 per barrel profit and later $80/barrel profit…..it tipped the scales in Putins pocketbook.
You can thank a strong economy and increased demand for $80/bbl, not Biden.
Policy is a key driver in price at the pump….no matter how much Biden tries to claim otherwise. Biden claims to open the market…but his liberal progressive Fed agencies stonewall anything fossil fuels.
No, it’s not. You clearly have minimal knowledge on the timescale associated with impacting the crude oil supply to market. The only policy that has been enacted has been on lease sales, and any production affected by that would not hit the market for years or even decades. These policies are terrible, but they are not impacting current supply or demand.
They. Have. No. Impact. On. Current. Prices.
Why does the east coast pay apprx double for the same nat gas as the balance of the US? Clear and simple, Its stupid Democrat policy.
Hey, lets release a bunch of oil from the SPR to lower prices…..and of course it didn’t move much because folks are smart enough to know thats a very short term fix. The announcement that inventories were building dropped the price more than that SPR release a week earlier. ( which makes the SPR release look even dumber.
Then what does idiot Biden do right after the release, he announces he will be looking to buy it all back in the fall….instantly prices shot back up. A president couldn’t screw this up any worse if they tried….which is looking more and more like thats what they are actually trying to do while blaming everyone/everything else.
Its either massive stupidity….or intentional. Its like selling your car…and telling the buyer you really want it back. Sure, its yours but its going to cost you.
59 bear posts relevant info of shortages, that has a direct affect on the price at the pump….contradicting your theory that futures contracts control everything.
There are many factors…your boy Biden and his puppet masters are a big one.
Deny all you want…but policy has an effect on prices. We have been living through it. You are saying its just a coincidence that during Trump The price at the pump was lower than both with Obama and Biden? Ridiculous.
When you do put the pieces together and realize Bidens policy opened the door for Putin to invade Ukraine. POLICY that handed Putin exorbitant profits with the promise of even more if he invades…….then you will be as mad as the rest of us.
You said the price at the end of the year was going to be higher, I said that’s not what the market thinks. The futures price is merely a view of the market about what’s going to happen, not what has.
The actual price at the pump doesn’t keep going up. It dropped from March to April. Regardless, I never said prices aren’t high. I said the things you point to - namely Biden - aren’t the reason.
59 bear posts relevant info of shortages, that has a direct affect on the price at the pump….contradicting your theory that futures contracts control everything.
That datapoint - distillate inventories - means nothing without context. There is no evidence that the changes in inventories have anything to do with supply shortages. In fact, if you google distillate production you’ll see supply hasn’t changed much at all under Biden. Again, these are inventory levels (not production) of a refined product and mean next to nothing when it comes to prices you pay at the pump. They are a lagging indicator and without context are irrelevant to this conversation.
If you have questions about crude oil supply (which matters to the price of oil, which is the biggest contributor to the price of gasoline), the answers lie in looking at actual crude oil production and other data like active rig counts. That is relevant data, not distillate inventories.
And where did I say futures prices control everything?? They don’t “control” much of anything at all. They are an outcome of the views the market has on the balance of supply and demand for crude oil. The collective market believes prices are coming down. You have a different opinion which goes against that consensus. You may ultimately be right - I’m merely pointing out that it’s a contrarian view.
You are saying its just a coincidence that during Trump The price at the pump was lower than both with Obama and Biden? Ridiculous.
Yes, that’s the point. Despite what politicians want to tell you, oil prices are moved by many things but it’s rarely the person in the Oval Office at the time of the price swings. The lowest retail price for gasoline in the last 25 years was when Obama was in office (in 2009). The price of gasoline rose every year Trump was in office until the pandemic hit.
If you want to know the reasons for those low prices google the following and report back:
“Oil price crash 2008”
“Oil price crash 2014”
“Oil price crash 2020”
Let me know how many times energy policy shows up as the reason for those events. Yes, policy matters and depending on what it is can have an effect. But just like (*spoiler alert* if you haven’t googled what I told you to google) policy wasn’t the reason for those price crashes listed above, it’s also not the reason for the current spike in prices.
Multiple news agencies reported that us average gas prices hit a record high yesterday . Gas price have definitely been “trending” higher since April of 2020 with a few dips here and there. That March-April dip ended April 18 and prices have been going up since then to reach yesterdays record high.
And as per usual, Shawn, your posts are 90% unintelligible and the 10% that is left makes no sense or has no relevance to the conversation.
Multiple news agencies reported that us average gas prices hit a record high yesterday
I said March to April. I didn’t say April to May. It was to put out the fallacy of speaking in absolutes like saying it the price keeps going up when, no, it doesn’t. It fluctuates. The trend overall has been upwards since they crashed during the pandemic. Give it enough time and I bet the longer term trend will move the opposite direction.
Biden changed the guidelines that his environmental agency NEPA uses to approve fossil fuel projects; pipelines, refiners, etc. The new rules essentially make ANYTHING fossil fuel a No Go. That one change in policy killed the industry driving up prices.
Biden keeps saying, “I released all of these new oil leases….” But then his fed agencies stonewall development along with initiated much higher royalties to the gov. Then factor in the bulk of our oil production in the US is not well funded big multi natl oil companies but small guys. Bidens POLICY statement that they will be all EV by 2035 makes it difficult for these smaller companies to get financing.
Would you spend millions now for a house that you have to give away in 12 years?
Biden continues to try and fool the avg Democrat voter into thinking its everyone elses fault. The scary thing is that they are intentionally driving up these fossil fuel prices…..To make their horrible California based energy policy look good. Power companies across the US recently came out saying they cannot keep up with power needs.
Business needs a reliable power supply- and Biden is steering us down a road where thats not going to be the case. The Democrats are literally tanking the US for their Globalist vision.
Lets hope the avg American sees through this terrible policy in the next election.
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Sure regulations can add costs, but it’s a matter of how much and when. The people that think these regulations are having a meaningful impact on the current supply and demand of oil, which is all that matters when it comes to current prices, clearly don’t understand what Biden’s EOs have (and haven’t) done and don’t understand the way the oil industry works.
You can also think Biden and his policies suck (they do, for like the tenth time) and also realize they don’t matter much when it comes to the current situation we find ourselves in (supply, demand, prices, etc).
KSflatlander's Link
As someone who writes NEPA docs for energy projects this statement is 100% false. Biden reversed a Trump policy and added climate change as cumulative resource analysis back into the process (which is one of many factors analyzed during the NEPA process). A projects effects on climate change weighs no more heavily on a NEPA decision than public need for energy or the many other factors on the record of decision.
See the attached link for some NEPA documents and decision/approval in 2022. So no, Biden did not "NO GO" all energy projects through NEPA.
By the way, NEPA is not an agency but a law. All federal agencies or any private projects with a federal nexus (needs a federal permit, on public land, or is federally funded) must complete the NEPA process unless it is categorically excluded.
What I can blame them for is not trying to fix it. They don't want to fix it. There is plenty the executive branch and congress can do to encourage supply increases and reduce the impact of unfriendly countries on supply and pricing.
What investor would be excited about exploring and new extraction infrastructure when your government is exclaiming they want you gone?
We need to encourage production. We can go green on a parallel path and let it gain presence based on merit. In the mean time, we need to have a strong and healthy country and economy along with the freedom and security to innovate and take risks. Third world countries aren't where advances in alternative energy come from.
That’s a fairer challenge, Glunt. There are things that could be done, but I don’t see much having an effect in the short term. He can open up leasing and decrease the royalty rate, but it won’t have much of an immediate effect on supply. The same way Trump’s policies were great for coal, but ultimately didn’t do much to change the industry - the same can be said for actions taken on oil and gas by the Biden administration.
In short, you can’t force companies to spend money - oil companies have been burned too often as of late (see 2008, 2014, 2020) and no one is keen to ramp up and get burned again.
What do you think Biden can do about this, Glunt?
Yes, but they sure don’t mind making it off us! Lol
Shorter term: Not really "short" because it's not a faucet but the sooner we start the better. Meet with Industy leaders and get a list of "wants" that would prompt Operation Oil Warp Speed. I won't claim to be an expert but take away obstacles and add incentives. Green Light projects like pipelines and natural gas export facilities waiting approval. It won't drop prices next month but when you are in a hole, stop digging first, then start climbing out.
At least act like they want affordable energy. Which is hard because they dont. I don't expect this Admin to do the right thing. People in power rarely act against their self interest. High fuel prices fall into the "plus" column for them. Instead of the "problem" category except for how it effects them at the polls.
Show me the 200Bln they're supposedly spending on their business!
Regarding Operation Oil Warp Speed, I don’t think anything is really going to push the industry to deliver more in the short term. We’re more worried about longer term industry security and making sure we’re free to operate through the transition. To that end, yes, continue leasing rounds, green lighting projects, etc all deliver that - but this is for longer term industry security (think 5, 10, 15, 25 years from now).
There’s been a big shift in the industry in terms of our approach to growth, and you’re seeing continued capital discipline. I think it persists for a long time, and there isn’t really much that can be done to change that.
See above. It’s all right there in their financial statements. So again, Ike…what’s a “fair profit” since apparently we’re making too much money?
Beendare's Link
Maybe you can explain this new ruling then taken right off of your website at link and explain why so few of these pipelines are approved under Biden?
from the FERC ruling PL21-3-000; UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. PL21-3-000] Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Natural Gas Infrastructure Project Reviews(Issued February 18, 2022)AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.ACTION: Interim policy statement. SUMMARY: This interim policy statement describes Commission procedures for evaluating climate impacts under NEPA and describes how the Commission will integrate climate considerations into its public interest determinations under the NGA. ....Commission staff’s NEPA documents have included direct GHG emission estimates from project construction (e.g., tailpipe emissions from construction equipment) and/or operation (e.g., fuel combustion at compressor stations and gas venting and leaks).22 Starting in late 2016, the Commission began to conservatively estimate indirect downstream GHG emissions by assuming full combustion of the maximum annual volume of gas that could be transported by the project.23 For indirect upstream, production-related GHG emissions, Commission orders during that time period relied on Department of Energy studies to calculate broad estimates.24 For upstream impacts, the Commission generally indicated that these analyses were not required by NEPA because the Commission lacked detailed.......
Sounds^ exactly as I described.
Questions for you; How long on avg does it take from start to finish to get one of these pipelines approved?
How many pipelines have been approved since Biden was elected? And how many denied?
No I do not work for FERC.
You could end all this by simply admitting that.
I’m not sure I know what you’re referencing, WVM. The biggest benefits from the capital discipline approach IMO are:
1) we’re returning more cash to investors instead of reinvesting it in the business, raising the shareholder value proposition in the short term and
2) by moderating our growth, we’re protecting our business from exposure to any future down cycles.
So saying government policy has a big impact on increased shareholder returns and building a more financially resilient company doesn’t make sense to me. I’m sure you had something different in mind though.
No they aren’t, Dick (aka Shawn).
To simplify in your terminology.
“ Jason, are you suggesting that government policy has no impact on investment planning for oil producers?”.
Please don’t play dumb.
No, I’m not suggesting government policy has no impact on investment decisions.
You mentioned government policies impact on the benefits of capital discipline. Yes, the whole regulatory framework is relevant to any business. But the current regulatory environment has next to nothing to do with the benefits that currently come from returning cash to shareholders (ie, improving your attractiveness as an investment) and creating more financial resilience (ie, protection from the impacts of any future downturn).
You clearly have something different in mind and I’m asking you to clarify what it is or ask your question in a different way.
Perhaps posting memes about oil company profits with the hashtag #corporategreedtakingfromthoseinneed?
Oil price is high because demand is outpacing supply. The biggest reason impact on the supply side is that the oil and gas industry is moderating their growth. The reason for that is shareholder/investors have demanded companies show discipline with their money and provide them better returns on their investment. The reason for this is returns have been terrible due to cash going to growth and three major price crashes impacting valuations over the last dozen years.
None of this has to do with Biden’s actions or the current regulatory environment. Biden’s actions (cancelling lease sales, nixing the expansion to the Keystone pipeline) only touch a fraction of the oil produced in this country and will not influence supply during the timescale to influence current prices (these are barrels that would be produced years or even decades from now).
So yes, policy matters, and if current policy holds it will impact price years down the road when the funnel of leases to exploit dries up - but it is doing next to nothing to the current supply mix right now and has little to nothing to do with the reasons oil companies are moderating growth currently - and therefore next to nothing to do with current prices.
These things are not mutually exclusive. Biden’s policies can be bad (they are), they can impact prices down the line (they may), and they can also have nothing to do with the current supply equation and current pricing (they don’t).
bigeasygator's Link
Demand is down considerably
Not sure where you all get your information, but demand is not down. We are consuming crude oil at essentially pre-pandemic rates.
Global oil demand roared back in 2021 as the world began to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, and overall world consumption potentially could hit a new record in 2022 - despite efforts to bring down fossil fuel consumption to mitigate climate change.
Q1 2022 with all of the pressures you described was essentially flat from Q4 2021 (although only one was demand oriented, with the China lockdowns). You can say that pressures will push demand lower over the course of the year, but demand has been rising, China lockdowns haven't had a significant impact globally, and any dips in consumption have been negligible.
It's really funny, because on one hand, Shawn, you're arguing that demand is down and will continue to drop. Oil supply is rising and will continue to do so at a moderate pace at these prices. Yet you're predicting record high prices. Sorry, but not surprisingly, these things don't add up.
"Opec said demand would rise by 3.36 million barrels per day."
This is down from their previous estimate of 3.67 million barrels per day of growth this year.
If your house is worth $100K and is predicted to be worth $175K at year end, and then a month later it's predicted to be $170K instead, would you say housing prices are down and prices are falling?
I was hoping Flatlander would chime in with info on all of the pipelines they have approved lately…and how quickly these projects get expedited- Not!
Heres another example - cut and paste- from the Larry Kudlow article today, his comments in Fox business. ( according to KS Flat he is lying)
Well, you would think that, but unfortunately, you'd be wrong because no matter what President Biden may say about short-run this or short-run that, the reality is his administration's new NEPA permitting rules will basically stop new oil and gas production and new pipeline building.
Of course, the Keystone XL pipeline is gone, thanks to Biden. Alaska drilling — gone. Other smaller pipelines — gone. Those decisions have already been made by Biden's Energy and Interior departments and his EPA. But just a few weeks ago, after bragging that at least a small amount of leases on federal lands will become available, the White House Council on Environment Quality put out the most restrictive, onerous infrastructure regulations in history.
Any new infrastructure projects — be they fossil fuel-related, or pipelines, or even bridges, roads highways, tunnels — will be subject to direct, indirect and cumulative environmental impact reviews. The social cost of carbon and its cumulative impact could go back 100 years and forward 100 years, all one gigantic roadblock.
Those new regulations actually neuter the trillion-dollar infrastructure bill that was passed months ago and supported by the Biden administration. Under these new rules, we won't be able to help Europe, nor will we be able to help the U.S. Ironically, we won't even be able to help the greenies, because a lot of their projects to build wind and solar and electric charging stations and EVs will be stopped by these radical environmental regulations.
Biden policy that is being referenced has nothing to do with the *current* price at the pump.
Even your referencing of new NEPA requirements, whether they are mischaracterized by anyone here or not, has no effect on current supply, and current demand. It is on projects that wouldn’t impact supply for years or decades. Prices at the pump right now are not materially impacted by something that may or may not happen five years from now. It’s not how the crude markets work. It is about the relationship between supply and demand at the current moment.
Tell me how a project that isn’t projected to deliver barrels to the market for, say, five years impacting barrels being produced today (5/12/2022)?
Oil producers aren’t going to increase production. In any means but a snails pace. That’s reality. There is no incentive too. But, none of that is policy related.
I realize that sounds dumb. But, that is what the business master BEG is selling. SMH
as biden would say, "period" . :)
Current demand? Forecasted demand? What are you talking about here. And down compared to what? Last months actual consumption? Last years actual consumption? Last months forecasted year-end demand?
If you’re talking about the week on week drop in demand, sure. If you’re talking about the forecasted end of year demand decreasing from the prior forecasts, sure (though all these forecasts show consumption rising through year end and a year-on-year increase in demand).
Not to mention Biden just as we speak denied a host of offshore Oil leases today
I’ve said this is bad policy. That said, do you know the typical timeframe from lease acquisition to production from an offshore well. For leases that are pure exploration plays, we’re talking decades (20 years). For leases with nearby infrastructure, you’re talking 5-10 years minimum. You think this matters to supply right now? It doesn’t.
Not surprised you’d think 59 nailed it. Assuming both of these accounts are Shawn Magyar.
The link I provided had a 2022 list. I guess you missed that.
“Heres another example - cut and paste- from the Larry Kudlow article today, his comments in Fox business. ( according to KS Flat he is lying)“
He’s not lying, he just doesn’t understand NEPA…just like you. Again, Biden reversed Trumps executive order and added climate change cumulative impacts back into NEPA analysis like it was before Trump. Were there any oil pipeline or leases approved prior to Trump? Yes, there were many and the NEPA analysis included climate change as a cumulative impact analysis. No different than now.
As usual, right wing talking heads will feed you fear and you will gobble it up because it fits your narrative and spread it without researching it yourself. Mindlessly…
You can NOT predetermine the results of NEPA based on one resource impact over another. If that were the case then oil companies could sue and they would win easily.
Larry is spreading fear and you are eating it up.
Neither of these have moved the needle much in terms of limiting supply? Do they add costs and red tape? Of course. Would I deem them meaningfully impactful? For a host of reasons, no I wouldn’t. I never said he was friendly to the industry. I said he didn’t impact much of anything.
But I may be missing something. Are there Obama era regulations that you think have had a lasting impact on the industry and are currently keeping production levels meaningfully curtailed, Orion?
In the offshore world, permit requirements increased about five fold under Obama and requirements for things like Worst Case Discharge calculations added what I would say a man month of work. For wells that typically cost $75-100 mln and take multiple years to assess, select, design, and execute, all of these requirements are in the noise in terms of additional resourcing.
Beendare's Link
Can you give us an idea of how long it takes to get one of these fossil fuel project through and how many have been approved since Biden took over?
FWIW, I am for environmental guidelines.....but I've seen cases where these projects get stalled and stalemated for years. Recently, on March 25th, Manchin had to come down on your outfit FERC in a congressional hearing that was stonewalling these fossil fuel projects. That would contradict what you are saying.
Heres the report from my link at Energy.gov- Washington, DC – Today, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, released the following statement after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reconsidered the policy statements on natural gas infrastructure projects it issued in February.
“Today’s unanimous vote during FERC’s open meeting was a course-correction from their previous partisanship and I appreciate their willingness to address the significant concerns raised by many members of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. I was also pleased to see them approve three additional pipeline projects. Energy security for America and our allies is dependent on FERC’s ability to move much needed energy infrastructure projects forward. To do so they must maintain clear and predictable policies that strike the right balance between energy security, affordability and environmental considerations. I will continue to seek a bipartisan path forward to ensure they do.”
In February, Chairman Manchin criticized FERC’s decision to add unnecessary roadblocks to the permitting process for natural gas projects. On March 3, Chairman Manchin convened a hearing to review that decision and blasted it as a short-sighted measure that put American energy reliability, security and independence at risk.
That depends on hundreds of factors. The size and distance of the line, what it’s carrying, where it’s at, what resources is it affecting, routing and siting, land acquisition, funding and on and on. The environmental part is just one part. NEPA is done once the field data is collected. It can take a pipeline 1 year to 20 years to get built. Anyone of the steps above can delay a project. The environmental work is usually done ~2 years prior to construction on average…which is admittedly a Guesstimate because it varies based on the factors above..
I don’t know the total number? You said all fossil fuel projects were “No Go” via NEPA. I provided a link that showed that your statement was false. Your own link says 3 projects were approved.
“Manchin had to come down on your outfit FERC in a congressional hearing that was stonewalling these fossil fuel projects. “
Again, I don’t work for FERC or the federal government. Nor do I know any specifics about these projects. But you can just keep with the straw-man arguments. What you posted is still false.
Everyone wants fossil fuel infrastructure built ASAP until it’s in their (thanks Ike aka the racist meme idiot) back yard.
During what time period are you talking?
Again, a question that you ignore...compared to what? Not sure why this is so hard for you to understand. Demand growth has decreased. Overall demand is still increasing. You're painting a different picture that is not accurate.
From the IEA on May 12th: "The Paris-based group predicts global demand at 99.4mn b/d this year, the same forecast it gave in its previous report, for year-on-year growth of 1.8mn b/d."
From JP Morgan on May 5th: "We now see total oil demand averaging 100 million bpd, 400,000 bpd below 2019 levels. This is a downward revision of 1 million bpd, and represents expected demand growth of 2.4 million bpd on a year-on-year basis."
From the OPEC forecast you reference on May 12: "In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec expects world oil demand growth at 3.4mn b/d in 2022"
Simple question Shawn, do you predict more oil consumption in December 2022 relative to May 2022?
K, we'll see. Another screen name showing up with no history on this site espousing the same nonsensical theories with the borderline unintelligible language and structure at times that I will almost guarantee will be wiped clean here in the next day or two.
That said, you didn't answer the question. Thanks Shawn.
Is this bizarro world? You are literally the one who posted the meme criticizing Big Oil companies for making the profits they do.
Big easy 2009-to early 2014.
During this period oil and natural gas production in this country increased by 40%. Oil production in the basin tripled, despite the relative unattractiveness when compared to other basins in the area (Eagle Ford, Permian, etc) from a margin perspective (which I would think would have been a bigger factor in shelving projects).
Not saying it (multiple projects cancelled 2009-2014) didn't happen, but I don't understand how those decisions were related to Obama and it's not on trend with what was happening in the basin during that time period.
'Ike' (Phone)'s Link
After dropping slightly last month, gas prices hit an all-time high on Tuesday, with Americans all over the country paying more than usual to fill up their cars.
The picture literally is posted with the hashtag Corporate Greed Taking From Those in Need. If your intention was just to educate us on the magnitude of oil company profits, I'd recommend picking a different source for the information and providing a bit more context next time.
I see a there are a couple of CNG facilities approved…BTW, that send the gas overseas.
I don’t see pipelines from Canada getting approved……or from the Appalachians to the east coast where it is most needed. The mostly conservative Gulf Coast is humming…the liberal Dem east coast not so much.
Flatlanders stance of ‘ Nothings Changed’ just doesn’t jibe with whats going on politically- Biden changed his mind on the AK areas again.
Why would companies NOT want to get at all of that oil? The obvious answer is its investment risk, with an antagonistic Democrat regime and gov restrictions.
Oh the irony meme guy. It is bizarro world.
Here is something useful…BEG schooled you yet again.
Beendare- pipelines crossing state lines iss a federal issue no matter where it is in the country. International pipelines require a presidential permit. And I never said nothing changed. I clearly stated that Biden reversed Trumps EO on NEPA and put it back were it had been for decades pre-Trump. Still, there is NOT a standing order to NO Go all fossil fuel projects as you stated. It’s once again still false.
Shawn/Static/59bear(all the same person)- compared to what? Yesterday? Five minutes ago? Certainly not compared to the height of the pandemic in 2020-2021.
You seriously take on two handles to complement yourself? A conversation with yourself? Really?
Still holding right at $6ish
DanaC's Link
BEG says prices aren't going up....then we get another new high today.
KS Flat is talking in circles....anyone with 1/2 a brain can see things have changed with Biden policy including the docs and links I posted.......hell Biden told us many times he was going to war with the oil companies...and he did.
Said the guy that thought NEPA was an agency. You want to create your own alternate reality…go for it.
That’s not how demand works.
BEG will tell us the direct opposite of what the nation is feeling and why
No, I’m giving you the reasons why the country is feeling what they are. Everyone else wants to point the finger at Biden and think all of our problems start and end there.
Yes, there is a diesel “shortage,” but the reasons why are many faceted. It is largely regional in nature (Northeast) where refining capacity has shrunk and there is increased demand domestically and abroad (see Europe) for diesel. These combined factors result in a “shortage” and are why prices are what they are.
I don’t blame him for it all. But, I don’t have my lips permanently glued to his posterior either.
The POTUS is supposed to represent the best interests of the citizens of this country. Not enact policy that further curtails our quality of life.
I think this is the dumbest statement I’ve seen in decades.
Said a guy whose been hammered on other threads for the same thing! Lol…We’ll see what Memorial Day weekend brings, as for traffic, I see the same amount and then some….Lowest for Diesel right at $6.11 highest was $6.69 at least around here!
They could open all of Alaska and the entire United States tomorrow, and it will not make a difference, because no one is going to invest, in all that needs to be done, under an administration, that could cancel it all out at anytime............ Currently this regime, has decided, that we need to rid ourselves of fossil fuels, of course they have no alternatives yet.....................................
Currently those who are 10 years or less out from retirement, are getting hit the hardest..... My young daughters, are buying cheap, and can make it thru....... Those on fixed retired incomes, will gain the most, I mean look at what an I bond or T note is paying right now, and CDs will rise quickly................................
Their are morons on both sides, but this administration, is the worst I have ever seen in my 73 years of life,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I believe it will change around, but we are living in dangerous times,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Biden is so radical, he does not even like Susan Rice, who behind the scenes, knows he is mishandling the border......................
There are so many scenarios where this can turn really bad….and the Dem politicians started this ball rolling. The EU is now saying they will boycott Russian oil…even Germany. No comments on nat gas …many in the EU are terribly dependent on that as its hard to substitute.
What happens with the commodity traders hedges? Russian commodity traders had their assets confiscated right? What if they say we can’t pay? How many of these commodity traders are leveraged- the problem here is we have no idea. What happens if Russia cannot sell to enough oil to where they have to cap wells…its my understanding they don’t have a massive storage infrastructure?
There are so many ways this could go really bad….and look at the idiots we have in Washington?
Im holding a bunch of cash with much of my investments in energy that are way up already. I hate buying high but I might have to increase that this next week.
For a multitude of reasons, I promise people are better served listening to me than to you, who is simultaneously making the argument we have low demand and high prices and who made probably the single most ignorant statement on this thread (“Demand is real low when there is zero supply”). You clearly have zero idea what you’re talking about and don’t understand the basics of supply, demand, and their effects on prices.
Again, you show your cluelessness. All of the benchmark crudes move more or less together. Oil is a globally traded commodity, and as such price movements trend each other (unlike natural gas, where the differences between geographic markets are much larger as the logistics in moving gas are much more complex and expensive).
There is no “global” price and “USA” price. There are different benchmarks (Brent, WTI) which garner different prices (due to quality and minor differences in logistical costs to bring to market), but they will trend nearly identically and the price discrepancy is relatively small. “Global” prices are not falling. They are doing exactly what they are doing here in the USA.
Current future prices show a slight decrease towards the end of the summer (~5%).
What “sure is”?? Per usual, your responses are unintelligible and make no sense, Shawn.
Ever pour WTI straight in your tank?
If you don’t understand the elements that go into the price of a gallon of gas and the outsized role the price of crude oil plays in that equation, you’re even more clueless than I thought. Temporary dislocations aside (hurricanes, etc) movement of the price of crude is nearly all that matters when it comes to movement in prices at the pump.
Only 20 years, Shawn. Again, you seem to have no idea of the decision making process around the integrated oil/gasoline supply chain and what motivates companies. You can’t make money if you’re shut down and shut in. Pretty basic stuff there, bud. That’s why you do these things when seasonal demand is lower. It’s a reaction to the market, not a way to manipulate it.
Yee Haw...Thanks Joe......for doing all you can do to lower the prices....
Hard to believe 81 million people can hide so well
BEG says prices aren't going up....then we get another new high today.
KS Flat is talking in circles....anyone with 1/2 a brain can see things have changed with Biden policy including the docs and links I posted.......hell Biden told us many times he was going to war with the oil companies...and he did.
I said they are likely to trend down over the course of the year, I didn’t say they will never ever increase ever again which seems to be what you think I’ve said.
Slo-joe and his team of anti-American miscreants OWNS this.... whether the dumb#×@£ knows it or not. And this is just the tip of the iceburg. It will get worse. We WILL return fire, jerkoff. UltraMaga, loser.
Treason much?
I feel your pain brother.
This sentence makes no sense. Spot prices are the current price of an asset. There is no such thing as a March spot price. Spot prices in March fluctuated between $90-115/bbl. Again, the sentence above makes literally no sense.
We now just below alltime record crude prices. Yeah, BEG new what he was talking. Here’s a prediction he made “prices willl go down”.
This coming from the guy who predicted $200/bbl. Let’s see who’s closer at the end of the year.
Thanks for that. Got a graph for us? Sure you work on an oil derrick?…
Yep, He could make one believe USA is pumping more fields, refining at 200% Warp Speed, and new leases in every coast.
A derrick is part of a rig. Nobody would say they work on a derrick. And no I don’t work in the field.
Rig count is rising, production is rising, and will continue to do so with prices at this level. Again, given the fiscal discipline shown by the industry, it’s not going to rise at the rate it was and with elevated demand, the market will remain tight and I (along with the market) expect prices to fall only modestly.
I don’t. I support the candidate that is the best choice or the least of 2 evils is more like it lately.
I swear for those (like Shawn) who rail against socialism (mostly a scare tactic)…they sure don’t like capitalism either. They want the government to step in the market and run the oil companies. Some people are not happy unless they are mad. LMAO.
This country is not better off, and even the biggest dope in the world knows it.....
A moderate, commone sense Democrat, would not even taken us, where we are. this dope has not been right on anything, for 50 years. He has been carried by his state, to do a useless job in Washington, like many, others..........................
their are useless political whores on both sides.............. Lindsey Graham is a prime example,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
This country needs leadership,,,, who will step up,,,,,,,,,,,,,, and I dont care what side they come from........................
Back to gas. You all say Biden is doing nothing to bring gas prices down immediately. You want the government in the oil market forcing companies to invest capital and start pumping? What about capitalism and smaller government?
The low demand through the pandemic and the rapid increase in late 2021 and 2022 drove the price up. BEG stated that and backed it up. Nobody else can back up their BS. And WV cheerleading is not backing it up…BOOM! LMAO.
Bottom line, the American people will vote, and speak,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, thats all we got
Those who believe in what we have, have their heads in the sand, but thats okay,,,,, The rejection will come,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
demand free transportation for pregnant citizens NOW! Come on Joe!
Ha, no way…Think they missed one though, Lol
Seriously, I'm lucky enough to make a great salary but a lot of middle class Americans are really hurting. For the first time in a long time I've seen people put $10 and $20 at the pump rather than fill up the tank. Same thing with the grocery stores.
as for Biden helping out oil companies, No i want him to get out of the way, stop putting his hand on the green energy scale and stop strangling them with regulations. As a CPA/Controller/CFO I've seen how excess regulations add excess costs without accomplishing anything at all.
“ Some people are not happy unless they are mad. LMAO.”
You were talking about yourself! Anyone getting worked up over memes has some serious issues, but we already knew that about you! You’re to serious, maybe you should try getting outside, maybe even hunting…Life is to short and you’re not going to make it out alive…
Biden spoke last week saying he is fighting inflation. Today Gensler the SEC head is proposing a bunch of additional regulations for businesses in the US to combat climate change and all of the other Obama policy items making an end run around the senate.
The Biden admin- which by now is there any doubt that its really the Obama admin in disguise- who weaponized the CDC, the Energy dept, the FBI, the EPA is now going to exacerbate the already terrible inflation by hammering American business.
This will drive up the cost of everything…or at least keep prices elevated, inc fuel.
I swear, you couldnt wreck this country any worse than this current puppet admin. Thankfully, Xi has his hands full in China or we would probably be taking it in both orifices right now.
And this is the result…
Interior Secretary Deb Haaland struggled to explain a memo from HER department calling for the shut down of new oil leases during a hearing on Biden’s 2023 budget request before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) on Thursday confronted Haaland: “The US Department of Interior just put out a statement and the statement basically says, a proposed program is not a decision to issue specific leases or to authorize any drilling or development. This is from ya’lls office, so it looks like you want to shut everything down…did you know your office put this out?
Secretary Haaland sat in silence and looked like a deer in headlights before muttering a few words.
“I am sorry, and am sitting in this hearing and not….” My God! This shuts it down!” Manchin said looking around the room in shock.
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Obama/Soros puppet appointed the Halaand with no qualifications only because she was a woman and a Native American.
He appoints that Rachel Levine to sec of education the transvestite or whatever you want to call him.
The AG Garland is more concerned with going after PTA members and MAGA folks than terrorists.
This new press secretary is clueless
His ministry of disinformation did not last very long with the woman that was the queen of disinformation running it.
This Homeland secretary turns a blind eye to millions of immigrants flooding the border along with enough fentanyl to kill every American 5x over, cocaine and other drugs
Literally every person he appoints is to destroy America.
Sorry for the rant. I think what shocks me the most is there’s a big percentage of Democrat voters that literally don’t see whats going on.
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With the rising cost of everyday living expenses these homeowners have no disposable income left at the end of the month. Very few homeowners have ever budgeted for home heating as it historically has been cheap. Specifically natural gas. It was that disposable income at the end of the month that paid the heat bill. The days of heating your home on the cheap are over with.
I have 2 neighbors that heat with fuel oil. They both purchased fuel oil the first week of April. Each took the minimum delivery of 150 gallons and bought from 2 separate suppliers. The one neighbors bill was $720 the other neighbor $726. If you include taxes and delivery in figuring the average per gallon that makes it $4.80 a gallon. I asked them how long 150 gallons would last during the coldest part of winter. Neither one would give me a specific answer. They just said "not long."
Another friend of mine heats with natural gas. Her natural gas usage was the same in March of 22 as it was in March of 21 yet her bill was 30% higher.
I heat with firewood but all of my appliances are propane. I use around 280 gallons every 8 to 9 months. Late last summer I locked in a delivery for March of this year for $1.99 a gallon. I don't have any specific numbers from my supplier for this year but I have read on other forums that I visit that there are people being quoted propane for this years delivery in the $3 to $3.50 range.
What else do you expect when your country is being run by a lying, corrupt, anti-American political party who HATES us and all we stand for and believe in?
Government policy is one of the sole reasons we are here. And, don’t let anyone convince you differently.
What is the federal tax on gas and diesel? That’s the first sucker punch right there. Add in a party/ government that fully intends to punish Americans for driving cars fueled by fossil fuels, and this is what you get.
Green energy. Cars run by batteries charged by fossil fuel created energy. That’s the sense of this horse crap. And, everyone knows it can’t be done. But, pawns we are to the interests of our lobbied politicians. Had enough yet?
I bet the mean ole orange man wouldn’t have played along with this so nicely. But, a totally incompetent man, who has twice failed at being elected president, who couldn’t get enough people to show at his rallies to even have them, supposedly beat the one guy in the last 30 years that promised to ensure these coincidences weren’t a way of life. Sound about right?
Diesel guys, are you running any additives? I’ve used Opti-Lube pretty much from the beginning…Summer Blend adds Cetane, plus a host of other advantages especially with the CP4 pump…Has added to MPG as well!
Short of forcing companies to start spending money and producing accelerating the rate at which production is ramping up…pretty much nothing. The forces at play here have little to do with the man in the Oval Office and there’s little he can do to actually make gas cheaper.
I wish Biden would use the same tactics with university’s. Instead of the government loaning money to prop up higher and higher tuition and professor salaries. His answer is to have tax payers pay for someone’s 5 psychology degrees.
Instead of going after big oil. Perhaps he should go after big education. Which has owned the Democrats for decades. Teachers unions through the University’s
Would love to see it. Would save about 18 cents off of current gas prices, so not sure it’s really easing the pain much. Also there’s the issue of Congress having to do it, not Biden.
And, again, I didn’t vote for him. He’s your president as much as he is mine, Rocky.
Imagine the price tag to refill THAT later!!!!
Resign, move to Canada and put Trump back in office.
But that's about as likely as Biden doing a single ****ing thing to help Americans!!!!!!!!!
What we should have done is had Biden's fingers chopped off so the SOB couldn't sign any executive orders!!!
Futures contracts for the summer months are down a few percent (3-5% based on the month) from last time I posted them a few weeks ago.
I’m sure there are many who don’t believe that. And, I’m not interested in what state supreme courts ruled. It was contradictory to the evidence that tampering was highly likely. The courts just didn’t have enough character to uphold the obvious.
So, anyone to blind to even consider connecting the dots that all this is much more likely to be an orchestrated plan versus coincidence, is frankly to ignorant to warrant as relevant.
And, I frankly believe most Americans would agree with that.
A little bit of research goes a long way. Biden had never done anything significant in half a century of politics. None of those that voted for him asked, “ Why are they hiding him?”
We need voters to understand the economics. A $5Trillion dollar social spending bill now is borrowing against our standard of living down the road.
Its unfortunate but; This high inflation will educate many- the hard way- into realizing the realities of massive gov spending and more government. The Dems try to obfuscate and confuse voters with divisive politics so they will take their eye off of whats important.
Hopefully we will get smarter as a country….
If you think oil trading at zero dollars a barrel is good for anybody (which is what you seem to be implying), you’re even more clueless than I realized, Shawn.
If you think oil trading at zero dollars a barrel is good for anybody (which is what you seem to be implying), you’re even more clueless than I realized, Shawn.
Lots and lots of pick up trucks pulling a travel trailer, boat or flat bed trailer packed with UTV's or ATV"s.
I could not see any difference in the amount of traffic today compared to when gas was $2.50 a gallon a couple of year ago.
I never said that. To me it’s silly to look to increase production beyond our borders before we attempted to do so within them. With that said, the administration can’t force domestic producers to spend more money if they don’t want to so I don’t see a way that Biden can really do anything to bring more oil to market (in a substantial way during the short term). The oil production in the likes of Venezuela, Iran, etc are actually state controlled and the government can indeed do something about their production output. Again, output in the USA is all controlled by private entities.
I love the crowd that says “get rid of red tape” that literally has zero idea what regulations even exist in the industry. Go ahead and tell me what red tape is holding back significant amounts of oil production right now? Until you can answer that, the rest of your questions are irrelevant.
And the candidate I voted for didn’t win, so, not surprisingly, your assumptions and accusations are wrong again, Rocky.
Come on man, obviously you are into standard engineering practices instead of truly creative engineering if you cannot come up with one potential solution to the problem other than supporting an administration who are currently trying to execute a strategy doomed for failure without the help of two of the largest Co2 producers!
I’m not supportive of the administration. Their energy policy sucks. But it has next to nothing to do with current prices and there ain’t a whole lot they can do to change the current situation. As much as you and others like to end your critical thinking at “Biden bad!”, the reality as it pertains to oil supply and demand are far more complex than “Biden did it!”
Fuel prices don’t seem to be affecting vacationers in South Florida. Sanibel Island has been as busy as I’ve seen. The number of boats on the water this weekend is insane.
Matt
Orion- your starting to sound like Shawn and that should alarm you.
I know…I know…forest fire.
It’s almost as hilarious as when they claim that oil trading at record lows from demand plunging during the pandemic related economic collapse are a sign of strong policy.
This puppet OBiden admin comes out of the gate attacking oil companies on every front…..Of course that will affect prices. The Democrats WANT high oil prices….so their Green initiative proposals look more palatable.
Europe is in a bad way with their energy security dependent on a Commie dictator.
Has anyone stopped to think where most of these solar panels come from? China. So O’Biden wants to make us dependent on China for the green initiative? Bad idea. ( reports of huge qty of Malaysian and Vietnamese panels originating in China to avoid tariffs)
This is the current Democrat party policy. They dont think anything through. They are modeling their policy after California and California has one disaster after another specially energy related.
Heres an example; CA’s Newsome decides to buy poor votes by letting everyone ride metro busses for free. The problem is, now all of the homeless are living on the busses and the seats have feces on them and the bus stinks so bad…working class folks don’t like using them.
This ^ is the current Dem party at work. Every policy decision is based on trying to buy votes.
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True capitalism includes competition. Competition promotes reasonable pricing structure. Big oil currently has an open invitation to gouge the hell out of us.
When oil was trading at record lows in 2020, and oil companies were going bankrupt and laying off thousands upon thousands of people, why didn’t oil companies just raise prices?
(Hint: it’s because oil companies have next to no control over what the price of oil or gas actually is, now or then)
You really think so lol. It’s going to cost them dearly in 2022 and likely in 2024. Anyone who draw the false choice of clean energy vs fossil fuels is full of s#%t. The future will always be both until renewables can be stored efficiently in the long term. Otherwise, oil and natural gas will be a part of our national energy policy.
Rocky D and Beendare- you sound like a Fox News, OANN, or Newsmax recap with every post. Think for yourselves and stop being hacks. Beendare sounds like bizzaro AOC.
Shawn- were those same price pressures there last year or the year when oil was way down? Absolutely. Then why was the price so low? Gee could it be a huge drop in demand through the pandemic.
No one is working harder on renewables, than many in the industry,,, Why, because its the future, but you can not also just shut off the spigpot.........................
Yes, I do and I don't watch or get my talking points from Fox, OANN (whatever that is?) or Newsmax. I simply listen to them when they speak about their agenda. Obama talked openly about wanting to shut down the coal industry and Biden recently within the last week or so talked about the transition away from fossil fuel.
It was/is their strategy for nationalized healthcare too. If anyone has saved $2500/year in healthcare cost because of and since the ACA passed, please speak up and post.
No and no. I never said either of those things.
No one is working harder on renewables, than many in the industry,,, Why, because its the future, but you can not also just shut off the spigpot
This is very true on multiple fronts, groundhunter. The transition is going to take decades, and you need fossil fuels in that time period. Not only because you need the actual physical product and the energy they provide, but for you need the cash oil and gas generates to be able to find the next generation of low carbon technologies that are going to make the transition happen. That is our strategy at Shell (I wonder who you’re guiding - if he worked upstream for 37 years I probably crossed paths with him).
Now having said that, it’s also not quite as simple as that. We just sold our Permian assets to ConocoPhillips for $9.5bln last year. Did we use that money to grow oil production in other areas? No. Did we take that money and invest it in New Energy (renewables, etc)? No. We returned $7 bln of it to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends and used the remaining $2.5 bln to pay down debt. These are the types of decisions many producers are making to keep shareholders happy.
What new regulations are you speaking of?
bigeasygator's Link
Matt
Yee haw. Thanks Biden for doing all you can do to lower the costs for everyone.
'Ike' (Phone)'s Link
Some of you make it sound like you’ll have take out a home equity loan to afford to hunt this year. If that’s the case, maybe a priority adjustment is necessary.
Matt
A lot of people are making a priority adjustment on whether they can eat or fill up their car for work these days. I'm lucky, I make a good salary and can wait out my investments improving in the long term but people are really hurting right now. Heating oil price per gallon is over $6 a gallon and people are going to be in a panic when they have to fill their oil tanks this year. Under Trump I filled mine at $2.18 a gallon. Obviously the Democrats could care less about the working middle class.
Dano“
Congrats Dan Ames from Fort Smith, Arkansas. We will look for your name when they post the results.
You didn’t think that one through did you, Shawn Magyar? LMAO
Fuel may not affect us so much but it slaughters the poor working folk with long commutes. Its been shown that fuel is a disproportionate high percent of family budgets among the lower class.
Summers here, 87 octane hit $6.39 here today and diesel is $6.99…so much for lower prices in the summer.
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In the middle of a pandemic when demand cratered. And because of this, oil companies were going bankrupt and laying off tens of thousands of workers across the country. This is the root cause of why gas is now priced the way it is.
And LOL to Aramco being a worthless entity. You clearly do not understand the production, reserves, and - most importantly during low price periods - the war chest that Aramco is sitting on. They do have a higher break even price than many other countries and operators, but they’re not even close to a worthless entity. Try again.
But they are not. And it is not because they are worried about another pandemic. And it is not because they are worried about a decrease in demand due to an economic slowdown (the supply limits are actually a key cause of the slowdown, not vice versa).
The reason is because of the "Green New Deal" agenda and what Biden in his own words excitedly calls the "Incredible Journey". By doing so Biden admits that high gas prices are his goal. Because that is the only way that so called green energy can compete.
And oil companies can see this agenda clearly. So there is no way they will invest in additional production when they know that the government is working against them to prevent additional demand. Would you? They can see the regulations requiring electric cars in the very near future. They can see the regulations requiring shut down of electric power plants that are fueled by oil/gas. It is painfully obvious to almost everyone it seems.
And oil companies can see this agenda clearly. So there is no way they will invest in additional production when they know that the government is working against them to prevent additional demand. Would you? They can see the regulations requiring electric cars in the very near future. They can see the regulations requiring shut down of electric power plants that are fueled by oil/gas. It is painfully obvious to almost everyone it seems.
I’m literally in on these conversations, AG. I understand exactly the motivating forces behind decisions companies are making.
The Green New Deal has no chance of passing anytime soon. And regardless of Biden’s thoughts around this “incredible journey,” the market is going to be the one that ultimately paces things. Despite what you all think about Biden being in charge and Democrats controlling the legislature, thanks to the likes of moderates their agenda will never get through. And if anything does, we’re one election cycle from reversing course. If anything, the name of the game has been “gridlock” and that’s just fine. Furthermore, given what we’re seeing play out in Europe right now, we all feel there’s far more hesitancy to accelerate the transition at the expense of energy security. This journey will take decades, and that’s how the industry is approaching things in this country.
If anything, this is motivating my company to accelerate activity as we (1) want to monetize our assets sooner rather than later and (2) we need the cash from oil and gas to fund the transition. However, given the recent crashes, we’re still moderating this growth.
Looking at large to the broader USA, most of the production increase we saw came from smaller shale players operating on private land. They don’t give a rats a$$ about being players in the energy transition. The reason rig counts are still suppressed and activity hasn’t picked up commensurate with prices has everything to do with the fact that these players were burned twice recently and don’t want to be burned again. They’re sending cash back to shareholders and investors instead of putting it back in the business. No one expects prices to stay high like this for a longer term, so there’s huge hesitancy to ramp up to take advantage of it - things are good now and operators want to remain resilient in the face of the inevitable fall in price.
But fact is fact, and the reality is, things are going downhill fast. The answer?.......wisdom.
This world is full of knowledge, but wisdom is scarce........knowledge without wisdom, can easily lead us down the wrong paths......look around folks......we aren't in Mayberry anymore.
Wait a minute Mr. Ames. You said you were in the finals?
Matt
Matt
You're right that things weren't great pre-pandemic for oil companies. But the height of the pandemic was most certainly the low point for oil and gas prices during the last decade.
And as crude oil is the biggest determining factor in gas price movement, gas prices followed a similar trend. National average was about $2.60-2.70/gal prior to the pandemic.
First future contract I see trading below $90/bbl is December 2023. So the market's current view is you've got awhile to go, Shawn.
There are currently no contracts trading anywhere close to $200/bbl. People may be estimating that, but that's not where the market has futures priced.
"Wirth reiterated the industry view that oil and gas producers take a long view of the market fundamentals of supply and demand when settling on capital expenditures. And according to Wirth, it takes years for decisions made today to result in oil.
The unique circumstances of the past two pandemic years have only sought to exacerbate the lag between demand and supply as industry workers fled the industry and wells and refineries were taken offline—some never to return"
In short...the pain we're feeling now is the result of actions taken years ago and there isn't much of anything that can or will be done in the short term (call it less than a year) to materially impact current supply.
Wait a minute Mr. Ames. You said you were in the finals?
No I didn't. I never once said that. Making things up again I see.
Hilarious though as you mentioned you were planning for $160/bbl by now.
Watching him trying to save face for his $190/barrel predictions is hilarious.
Matt
Post those Howard Hill Classic results Mr. Ames. We want to see your name in the marquee.
bigeasygator's Link
I would never say that because that's not true. Currently the price of crude oil is accounting for roughly 2/3 the cost of what you are paying at the pump for gasoline and over half of what you pay for diesel (note the graphic above is out of date from today but in the ballpark).
"The primary factors impacting gasoline prices are global crude oil cost (61%), refining costs (14%), distribution and marketing costs (11%) and federal & state taxes (14%), which are generally reflected in the wholesale costs that gasoline retailers pay to distributors.
The cost of crude oil is the largest factor in the retail price of gasoline. Because of this, changes in the retail price of gasoline typically track changes in the global crude oil price. Crude oil prices are impacted by geopolitics, global market fundamentals, including supply and demand, inventories, seasonality, financial market considerations and expectations."
I haven't read the whole thread so if this has already been answered I apologize.
Crude prices were about 50% higher in 2008, but we didn't see $5/ gallon gas.
Why are we seeing that now since the biggest factor for gas prices is the price of crude?
No matter what this is on Joe and his administration. The same administration that has not correct course and whose every move is making the situation worse.
But hey there are still a couple here who would pony up and be the little spoon while touching old Joes leg hair.
No matter what this is on Joe and his administration. The same administration that has not correct course and whose every move is making the situation worse.
But hey there are still a couple here who would pony up and be the little spoon while touching old Joes leg hair.
The average crude oil price in 2008 was around $100/barrel.
Matt
Matt
Bowfreak's Link
Based on this chart taken from the link below....from March of 2008 to September of 2008, oil was above $100 per bbl. In July it was the highest in history at $147.47per bbl. Oil was roughly 50% more expensive at that time but currently gas is 20% higher than the period of time with the highest oil prices in history. $4.107 then $4.919 now. Why wasn't gasoline $7.00 or $7.50 in July of 2008?
There is more to it than the price of oil. So what is it?????
Crude peaked at about $140/bbl in June of 2008 (for context, it was down to $40/bbl by the end of the year). During that same time frame, gas prices peaked at about $4.12/gal. Now we're at $120/bbl and gas is averaging about $4.90/gal.
So yes, there's about a 15-20% uplift vs. the price of crude when looking back on the price of gas in 2008. It's mostly coming from increases to the refining and distribution costs associated with gasoline.
So the relative contributions of these factors has increased over time. But crude oil is still the dominating factor when it comes to price movements. As the link I posted above from the API (American Petroleum Institute) discusses, since 2020, 90% of gasoline price movement can be linked to changes to crude oil.
So, what’s your question?
Matt
Grey Ghost's Link
Matt
"The national benzene content of gasoline today is about 1.0 vol%"
No one affiliated with petroleum products in any meaningful way calls gasoline "benzene." It's more proof that you don't really know what you're talking about at all.
Regarding diesel, crude oil is still by far the dominant factor with respect to diesel price movements. Other supply (reduced diesel refining capacity, increased input costs, ban on Russian diesel) and demand (increased demand for diesel and distillates) factors are pushing prices even higher.
And since I know you lack comprehension skills, I’ll make it simple for you. Using todays dollars, we paid more for a gallon of gas in the summer of 2008 than we are now, and the world didn’t come to an end.
BTW, name one other consumable good that has remained roughly the same price for decades. Why is it assumed that fuel prices should be immune to inflation, when nothing else is?
Matt
I don’t like $5/gal gas any more than you do. But, I also realize we’ve been here before, and we survived. As we will this time.
Matt
We haven't been here before. By BEG's calculations we are seeing prices relative to the price of oil that are 15-20% more than 2008.
Also....crude went over $140/ bbl in July of 2008.
Nobody here thinks they made the right decision. They all are just not honest enough to admit it
Pure Liberal liars
Let’s get some facts straight, Shawn.
Biden is terrible. His energy policies are terrible. I didn’t vote for him.
No one on this thread said anything about oil going to $80-90/bbl this summer. You’re making that up.
It is okay to think Biden sucks and also recognize that he doesn’t have much of anything to do with current gas prices, and there’s not much of anything he can do to “fix” things. In fact, doing so makes your assessment that Biden sucks (again, he does) more credible.
Speaking on that last point, I read the Goldman note last night. It basically is saying everything I’ve said.
1. Not enough supply in the market to lower prices. Oil companies continue to show capital discipline. Companies that missed their CAPEX targets sold off in the last earnings season.
2. Demand is still outstripping supply and likely will continue to do so until oil hits $140/bbl.
3. This $140/bbl will feel equivalent to $160/bbl as it pertains to gas prices thanks to refinery constraints. The capacity that was lost was lost during the height of the pandemic. This is the 15-20% premium vs. 2008 we talked about yesterday.
Yeah. You aint been right on squat Big Erroneous Goober.
Did you even read the Goldman note or did you stop at a headline? As I highlighted, the Goldman note tells you exactly what they think is behind current prices and where they're going. And it literally makes the points I've made on this thread - capital discipline is the biggest barrier to new supply (particularly in the USA), demand is still strong at these prices, and prices need to go higher before we see balance in the market. Guess who they don't point figures at in the GS note regarding the current market dynamics and pricing? (hint: it's Biden).
So to be clear - you hold up the Goldman note which says everything I've said and then say I haven't been right about squat. LOL Can't have it both ways, Shawn.
And sorry, I don't own a crossbow.
You know nothing about me, and it shows. But it does say something about the arrogance of a person who would tell someone who has the degreed background and spent their entire 20+ year career working globally on a specific industry that they know nothing about it. But I'm sure you learned much more about the industry I work in as an Army Ranger.
I notice you only talk about Oil. Whats Chicago elite Liberal doing mining for gas and oil?
That's right I have a huge social media footprint. For anyone that wants to follow me, it's Jason Sheridan in New Orleans on Facebook, and jason.a.sheridan on Instagram (my last account, bigeasygator, was hacked and Instagram won't give it back, so don't follow that one). I don't hide who I am, Shawn.
Regarding "Chicago elite Liberal," that's just you not doing your homework. I'm not from Chicago. I only got my MBA from the University of Chicago - Booth School of Business. You know, birthplace of the Chicago School of economics. Home of Milton Friedman, George Stigler, Eugene Fama, Ronald Coase, Gary Becker, etc etc. I wanted an MBA from a top ranked program, was attracted to the fact that it is a quant heavy program, and aligned ideologically with the Chicago school (free markets, economic liberalism, efficient markets, etc).
I got my MBA while working through their Executive program, so I've spent my whole career in oil and gas - which is why I chime in particularly on the oil threads.
It's not Washington, it's Wall Street. Until shareholders and investors ask for more production and not dividends/buybacks companies things will remain tight. But you're right...no one knows where it's headed.
The problem now is that demand is back and production is not. Simple math. Production is increased compared to Trump yes, considering the 2020 pandemic timeline, but not relative to normal (non-pandemic) economy. In fact as the above statement says, it was near an all time record under Trump prior to the pandemic.
There is solutions on the horizon if we had a common sense administration;
1) Publicly put the ‘Negative on fossil fuels’ on hold. Announce a sea change extension in the Green initiative time line and instead putting a priority on energy security.
2) immediately give the green light on fast tracking a couple new oil refineries and pipelines…in fact the US gov can partner with oil companies to get this done just like Trump did on Covid vaccine development. Those vaccines came to market in record time due to his presidential order in Sept 2019. ( something many of the Trump haters don’t know)
3) mandate the EPA to get this done instead of sitting on it like they have been doing. Heck, Manchin had t9 drag theEPA into a Congressional inquiry a few months ago to call them out for their stonewalling.
4) Fire that turd John Kerry…..the oil he uses In his plane tooling around wringing his hands like Chicken little is enough to power my companies fuel req for a decade.
Heck, OBidens approval rating would go up 20%.
Nobody on this thread or anywhere else has predicted that. You’re gonna be waiting for a long time for $80/bbl.
Of course you won’t, because they don’t exist and nowhere did GG or anyone else predict $80/bbl oil this summer. No surprise there. All hat, no cattle.
But do agree with one thing BEG has said, that is NOBODY knows what will happen
And I have no idea of who said it or exactly what thread it was said on but Dano is right. In reference to futures for the summer someone forecasted $80-90 oil prices
I have no interest nor the time or energy to page through multiple posts trying to ferret out what someone said to prove some nonsensical point
Having said that, it’s time to gear up for a hot fishing weekend
Enjoy the weekend boys and be safe !!
We all know his Marxist agenda with prosper if they could only get rid of what's left of our Constitution.
Seeing as gas has been selling for over $7 at certain stations in California for over a year, you really went out on a limb there Shawn.
The 6 mile per gallon diesel pusher motorhome and 400 HP Mercury Verado powered fishing boat I bought back when diesel and premium were about $2.50 per gallon are looking like pretty silly toys at this point…..
Thanks Joe!
a strategy to consider is to rack up thousands of dollars in loans for fuel, similar to student loans, and hope that uncle joe steps in and pays off the balance. why should we have to pay it back? this is predatory by the credit card companies and big oil, not to mention big baby formula.
I can promise the administration is meeting with and begging domestic producers to increase supply.
More of the “capitalism and free markets are bad” crowd I see. Hey Ron, why didn’t oil companies raise prices when they were low? It’s because they have no say what they were then, and no say what they are now.
Oil companies are now "energy" companies. They want to be positioned to be suppliers of whatever type of energy the market and regulations dictate.
Beasy, relax. I know how sh*t works. It was tongue in cheek.
The thing is, most of the infrastructure relevant to this issue is already in place. Additionally, given the timeline on many major projects, those are already being spent on and companies aren’t going to stop now. The big delta from now to what was happening pre-pandemic is really around rig counts and bringing new short cycle oil to market. There are labor and supply chain issues to deal with, but it comes down to choosing cash payouts at the expense of growth. The growth opportunities are there - I’ll make a prediction that we will set production records by the end of 2023. But it likely won’t be enough to rebalance markets for quite some time given the strong demand.
But, when that huge sector of demand is being regulated away, its not rocket science to see why increasing supply and long-term supply infrastructure is on the back burner.
Again, demand is essentially at pre-pandemic levels. Nothing noteworthy has been done or is being done to alter the demand equation right now.
Oil companies are now "energy" companies. They want to be positioned to be suppliers of whatever type of energy the market and regulations dictate.
This may be true of the likes of Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, etc. But it is not true of the vast majority of producers and the vast majority of production in this country. It comes from companies who are oil companies and will never be anything but oil companies. This includes companies like Occidental and Pioneer and even smaller companies. These are the ones truly driving the swing production in the shale plays, and this is where investment and activity has really cooled off from where we were in early-2020.
What incentives is a Republican legislature going to be able to offer?
The implications of what is going on now are profound for the future of oil production in this country. There is no greater incentive to drill than $120/bbl oil, yet production is only ramping up modestly.
At the end of the day, it’s truly an indictment of the US shale business. Unless you have the best acreage, it isn’t a great economic play. I’ve heard the shale business called a Ponzi scheme by some pretty high-ups, and it’s absolutely clear they were right. All the spending and all the growth delivered zero returns over the last decade. It’s truly telling how marginal it is.
Don’t get me wrong, you’re going to see growth and you’re going to see massive profits, but the growth will never be commensurate with what it was when we were kicking off the shale revolution way back when Obama was in office, and you’re going to continue to see more of those profits going to shareholders as opposed to growth.
Shawn, again your posts are too unintelligible to tell if it even makes any sense or not.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/what-drives-oil-prices.html
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbooksauthors/2021/01/25/factors-that-influence-pricing-of-oil-and-gas/?sh=50485838338d
https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained
It is as simple as supply and demand and everything else is , Shawn. Yes, there's a lot to unpack in terms of what goes into supply and what goes into demand, but there current situation is fairly straightforward. Supply is "down" because of the pandemic and because of the poor returns provided by the industry over the last decade. This is exacerbated by the supply related issues associated with the war in Ukraine. Usage is up globally as we deal with a recovering economy and the pent up demand associated with years of a limited economy. Subsequently, markets are tight and price is up.
I give a chit how it’s written. It’s poorly worded and it ignores or downplays the true forces moving oil prices. No wonder you’re wrong half the time and unintelligible the other half of that’s the kinda sources you’re cutting and pasting from. FYI, your phone autocorrected “wrong” to “right,” Shawn. You might wanna get that checked out.
And no one throws chain on Deepwater rigs, which is my area of operations. When we need input on how to register fake accounts on Bowsite, we’ll seek your counsel. Otherwise, you can let the people that actually know what’s going on handle things.
bigeasygator's Link
Why there’s no relief in sight for soaring oil and gas prices
…President Biden is reportedly agonizing over sky-high energy prices that threaten to wreck his presidency. But it’s not a U.S.-centric problem, and there’s very little he can do. Biden, like many others, wants U.S. oil and gas producers to drill more. U.S. production is growing modestly and likely to hit a new record next year. But energy producers have been burned many times in boom and bust cycles, where prices rise, they drill more, then prices crash and they lose money.
“High prices aren’t good for us,” Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, said during a June 7 event sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They never last. In our industry, demand always moves faster than supply. Incentives are there for the producers to produce. This is not always the most popular thing, but allow markets to work.”
That may sound disingenuous, given that Chevron is one of the oil majors booking huge profits right now. But many industry executives point out that U.S. energy firms overproduced for years leading up to the 2020 COVID recession, which turned into a bloodbath for the fossil fuel industry as demand collapsed and oil prices even went negative for a brief spell. That was a searing experience energy firms and their investors don’t want to repeat.
I have to say I don't have much faith in the Republican leadership since the NeoCons seem to be pulling the strings. The laim stream media will be fighting the fight for their side as usual. Desantis is the only one I can think of that might be a good choice if he will steer clear of the Bushite/Republicrats
I don’t see anyone here either making excuses for Biden or even supporting any of his policy. I’ve said multiple times his policies are terrible (even if they have little to do with the current supply crunch). And you’ve finally got one thing right, Shawn. He can cry and moan and stomp his feet all he wants, but - as I’ve also said multiple times on this thread - he can’t force companies to spend money if they don’t want to. Right now, they don’t want to for reasons entirely independent of what party is control of the White House or Congress.
What isn't what you're hearing? Be specific man.
He has same authority Carter had and used against Oil well head owners and producers.
Which was what, Shawn?
We will let BS determine who got this Oil Crisis correct.
Cool. They can either vote for the guy who said oil would be $160/bbl by now and predicted $200/bbl later in the year and who has provided such insights like "demand will be zero if supply goes to zero." Or they can vote for the guy who works in the industry, who is telling you exactly why prices are high and why markets are likely to remain tightly supplied.
Because government policy is to blame. And, bidens policy is nothing more then a smoke and mirror game. He’s sticking to the plan like glue too. There is no debating that.
So, what are we arguing about then?
You said it, I asked you to enlighten us all. It's a simple question. Biden doesn't have the same options. We don't have price controls like we did under Carter. So tell us what power does Biden have that Carter used to incentivize spending? What are you hearing from your Rep?
We closer to $150/brl or $80 brl?
No one here said anything about $80 right now.
You said it, enlighten us. I said Biden can’t do anything to make oil companies spend money. You argued that he’s going to do what Carter did.
Simple math. Spots are $116 and change right now. We’re closer to $90/bbl than we are $150/bbl. Futures prices still showing decreasing contract prices over the rest of the year. Still have no clue why you’re so fixated on this $80-90/bbl number. You’re the only person on this thread that has talked about that price range.
I asked you to clarify and specify. You’ve done neither. Now you’re saying you never said that lol the funniest thing is you’re trying to argue with me after saying essentially what I said (“ Oil Co’s not doing Joe Poopy Pants any favors”).
The industry org came out with 10 policy decisions reversing Obiden’s bad policy that is exacerbating this mess. ( spoiler alert- many I have already posted )
1. Lift Development Restrictions on Federal Lands and Waters
The Department of the Interior (DOI) should swiftly issue a 5-year program for the Outer Continental Shelf and hold mandated quarterly onshore lease sales with equitable terms. DOI should reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands and waters.
2. Designate Critical Energy Infrastructure Projects
Congress should authorize critical energy infrastructure projects to support the production, processing, and delivery of energy. These projects would be of such concern to the national interest that they would be entitled to undergo a streamlined review and permitting process not to exceed one year.
3. Fix the NEPA Permitting Process
Your administration should revise the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by establishing agency uniformity in reviews, limiting reviews to two years, and reducing bureaucratic burdens placed on project proponents in terms of size and scope of application submissions.
4. Accelerate LNG Exports and Approve Pending LNG Applications
Congress should amend the Natural Gas Act to streamline the Department of Energy (DOE) to a single approval process for all U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. DOE should approve pending LNG applications to enable the U.S. to deliver reliable energy to our allies abroad.
5. Unlock Investment and Access to Capital
The Securities and Exchange Commission should reconsider its overly burdensome and ineffective climate disclosure proposal and your administration should ensure open capital markets where access is based upon individual company merit free from artificial constraints based on government-preferred investment allocations.
6. Dismantle Supply Chain Bottlenecks
You should rescind steel tariffs that remain on imports from U.S. allies as steel is a critical component of energy production, transportation, and refining. Your administration should accelerate efforts to relieve port congestion so that equipment necessary for energy development can be delivered and installed.
7. Advance Lower Carbon Energy Tax Provisions
Congress should expand and extend Section 45Q tax credits for carbon capture, utilization, and storage development and create a new tax credit for hydrogen produced from all sources.
8. Protect Competition in the Use of Refining Technologies
Your administration should ensure that future federal agency rulemakings continue to allow U.S. refineries to use the existing critical process technologies to produce the fuels needed for global energy markets.
9. End Permitting Obstruction on Natural Gas Projects
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should cease efforts to overstep its permitting authority under the Natural Gas Act and should adhere to traditional considerations of public needs as well as focus on direct impacts arising from the construction and operation of natural gas projects.
10. Advance the Energy Workforce of the Future
Congress and your administration should support the training and education of a diverse workforce through increased funding of work-based learning and advancement of STEM programs to nurture the skills necessary to construct and operate oil, natural gas, and other energy infrastructure.
The question is - will the Biden administration do any of them?
The Liberal Dem news media and couple guys here hanging on to the claim that the president can't influence oil prices- Funny. First of all- it happened, its a reality. Second, The Petroleum institute clearly points out where he went wrong with his policy.
The problem for Americans is that Biden may never admit he is wrong and we will have to suffer with the high prices and more inflation for a very long time.
Bidens doing nothing but spending and trying hard to pull us into a war. The Fed reserve will have to drive the country into a recession........or Stagflation trying to lessen the demand for oil in an attempt to solve Bidens mess....but of course the Biden apologists will blame that on something else too.
The midterms cannot come fast enough.....
By my count, six of the ten items on that list were issues well before Biden took office. Only recommendations #1, 3, 5, and 9 involve significant changes from the Trump to Biden administration. Regarding the "current mess," these are all recommendations that won't have any immediate effect on price. I support all of the API recommendations, but they are all aimed at ensuring the long-term security of the industry (which is part of APIs mission) and will do little for current prices at the pump.
How much does ESG way in on future drilling? I don’t see banks loaning any money for oil projects with that crap.
How much does ESG way in on future drilling? I don’t see banks loaning any money for oil projects with that crap.
It’s had more to do with those banks losing money on oil bets over the last dozen years than it has to do with ESG. In fact, you can see a lot of the ESG momentum reversing course with current prices. Look at some of the recent statements coming out from the likes of Blackrock and others on their shifting feelings towards ESG.
I was just there for two weeks, Idyllwild. Edinburgh, St. Andrews, and Inverness. At least the dollar is ridiculously strong. Was about 25-30% cheaper thanks to the exchange rate versus my last trip there.
Huh?
Regardless...a gas tax holiday would be a horrible idea. Pretty sure that UPenn did a study that said suspending it would save the average family $18...in total. All it would do is generate more demand, adding further imbalance to the supply/demand equation. So any savings from the tax are essentially wiped out by increased demand for oil/gas that comes along with it. Obama was right when he called it a gimmick.
Goldman Sacks posted 3 things Obiden can do right now to lower gas prices....but of course he won't do it as the environmentalists would have a cow. They doubt the Dem Congress will approve the gas tax moratorium.
FROM GS; Regulatory changes which the White House could make without Congress, including issuing Reid VaporPressure (RVP) waivers, and which would allow the sale of cheaper winter-blend gasoline during the summer
Jones Act waivers, which would allow generally less expensive foreign vessels to transport fuel between US ports
Easing the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), which has seen increased compliance costs for refiners as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs)—the credits purchased to comply with the program—have traded substantially higher over the last two years.
Then go "green" the smart way using the free market and innovation that comes from free and prosperous people.
By doing what?
Use Def Prod Act to fast track refineries builds. Still take a few years.
Look at Shawn calling for Socialism.
You agreed with GS But yiu did not initiate that either
That’s just an observation on my part and it means nothing I spend a fair amount of time fishing and hunting with I guess would be regarded as some hitters in your industry and they keep me up dated with lots of issues.
You may be the BS PETROLEUM expert but you seem to be short on some issues.
That is not important. It’s just an internet archery site. Nothing more or less And thus should not be deemed to important
You may be the BS PETROLEUM expert but you seem to be short on some issues.
Go ahead and elaborate on both points, RK. What have I not been spot on about? Where issues am I short on?
Haaa, come to CA and see it in person…Total BS, that’ll help or improve the ‘road projects’!
It'll be another guvmint induced crisis where we are pounded non stop by the MSM with stories of how mothers and newborns are not getting baby formula, monkeypox is spreading because of it, PPE is not getting delivered to hospitals and nurses are forced to wear garbage bags, children are not learning in schools because of the lack of supplies, etc. One thing for sure is some minority 'community' will be disproportionately effected and they'll be in front of the camera.
Yeh, it'll be something along those lines. Take your pick. :)
Registered Libertarian, so thanks, Hedgehunter.
Matt
Lots of people just didn't like Trump, so they voted for Biden...now regret their choice.
Those that still support him...are clearly lacking common sense.
WTI spot prices now in the $90s/bbl. December futures contracts now trading below $90/bbl.
Beendare's Link
Whomever said the president admin can't influence the price of oil is uninformed.
link is to Real Clear energy, excerpt;
Mistake #1: Delaying and Minimizing a New 5-Year Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Leasing Program
Past 5:00 p.m. on the Friday evening of a holiday weekend, the administration’s long-awaited draft plan for a 5-year program for development along the Outer Continental Shelf finally was released to the public. Incredibly, the plan contemplates holding zero to 10 auctions in the Gulf of Mexico over the next five years, plus the possibility of one in Alaska’s Cook Inlet. Leaving open the possibility of no offshore lease sales puts U.S. producers at a disadvantage on the global stage, puts our economic and national security at risk (look no further than Europe), and could put upward pressure on prices due to lack of supply.
Mistake #2: Considering New Obstacles to Drilling in America’s Most Productive Oil-Producing Region
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) last week announced it may soon rule that parts of the Permian Basin – which accounts for 44 percent of total U.S. daily oil production – are in “non-attainment” status under the agency’s ozone regulations.
Mistake #3: Asking Gasoline Station Owners to Adjust to Market Forces Outside Their Control
On Saturday, President Biden used his online bully pulpit to tweet the following: “My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.” While the sentiments may come from a good place, the understanding of the market fundamentals is off-base.
Biden is a disaster...period. Another thing...world trade is good but I don't think the US should be dependent on any other country for anything...just don't see how that's a good thing.
We need to wake up as a country and understand that energy and energy security is A very important factor not just for our lifestyles but also for our economy. We need to put people in there that start Making the right decisions long-term for the country. We can turn the ship around.
Take a look at the UK, Japan and Germany.. We have it good compared to those countries, They are in a heap of trouble. They are talking rationing. It for sure is going to affect their economies sending them into horrible recessions and driving up inflation even more.
My hope is that we come out of this smarter, better, and stronger and hopefully pull Canada up with us in partnership.
.
Beendare's Link
bigeasygator's Link
That way they can move in and Federalize everything..too bad a lot of folks in the US don't see this.
Crude prices down >20% over the last month. Projected to be in the mid-$80s/bbl by year end based on futures prices, and below $80/bbl by mid-year next year. This is why oil companies are moderating growth.
The market seemed to pretty much call this one.