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It ain't gonna be pretty.........

This is the reality. All costs will increase, not just fuel. I can almost imagine the "fallout" when Shockey's article on a hunt increasing due to covid comes true when all operating costs for everyone everywhere increase just to provide the hunt that was booked last year at $2.00 gasoline and the outfitter wants you to pay more. Otherwise, there will be no bookings for hunts ever again, too many outfitters will be out of business. And, we're not talking about reimbursing "money spent not earned". We're talking about the increase in operating real time during the hunt...

This will not be pretty.......

"Transient", kinda like inflation, interest rate hikes and nukes.

Thats why you don't artificially attack the life blood of our economy to force transition to a different energy platform that isn't ready to replace it. I'm fine going "green" (even though its not as green as people pretend) as long as it happens primarily by market forces. Its so unbelievably stupid to put your country in a weak position on purpose that its almost like it isn't just a case of incompetence. Feels more like something intentional...

We will use what we need to use. The truth is that if you care about the environment, a barrel of oil extracted and refined in the US is better for the environment than a barrel extracted in China, Russia or the middle east. Of course its also better for our economy and the citizens. In the old days that was called a win/win.

Since Spring of 2021 (Since Biden took the helm), my shipping costs have risen almost 40 percent. Had to raise my prices to compensate, or I'm left with next to nothing, by the time EBay takes their fees. Just shipped another order Today, 82 dollars retail, now costs me 60 dollars to ship a medium size box to the East Coast (and, that is WITH the EBay Discount). My Large boxes are now shipping at nearly 90 dollars (55 dollars anywhere in the U.S., back in 2020). Means I will have to raise my price on the listings again.

By creating the death of Energy Independence, the Biden Administration is effectively killing small Business. Consumers can only afford to pay so much for goods, and everything has a "selling point".

Shipping Carriers will ALWAYS raise their prices to meet rising fuel costs (and that includes the U.S. Postal Service).

Just had to get that off my chest...now, back to our regularly scheduled program!

Also DEF will be effected as all urea products are an issue. We are working on getting a couple of the old tractors up and running in case getting DEF for the newer ones becomes a problem and because parts for everything have been hit and miss.

Ukraine.

Nitrogen (ammonia) and phosphorus are the other top two fertilizers.

Hi, Dave, $3.99 9/10 here today.

I misread something, not Ukraine.

No it won’t keep me from running the mountains for elk. Nothing will.

Keystone pipeline has nothing to do with it. If you think it does you haven’t educated yourself. It’s ok to get over that now.

The only thing that keeps a true elk hunter from pursuing his passion is either not drawing a license or a body that can no longer do it.

That is simply not true...

Matt

Which, as mule pointed out, might be a great thing. Unless the increased costs has economies suffering. You might not have a job by September.

Matt

Another incorrect statement. That extra few hundred bucks is the price of the tag, cost of food, the cost of whatever normally budgeted for. It's also the same cost for vehicle insurance and any other normal "soap, dope, and rope" required to run a household. Sudden increases in fuel price isn't something you normally budget for when it comes to luxury activity.

No wonder today's young adults suffer from extreme high debt and the lack of understanding in financial literacy with guidance like that...

That was exactly my point. Most young adults have no concept of living within their means. If their budgets are so tight that inflationary pressures cause them to change their travel plans, then traveling is probably not what they should be focused on.

Many guys, here, don't bat an eye at buying a new bow, or the latest and greatest camo outfit, every year. Yet, an increase in travel costs is suddenly a deal breaker? I'll believe it when I see it this fall.

Matt

What May affect people is the cost of gas all year long! They will spend more money for gas every day before and after the hunt. So that extra cost will add up and keep some from making the trip to hunt.

I don't think anyone disputes that inflation hurts lower income families more. But, to claim you're sympathizing for them, while soaking up rays and drinking Pina coladas on a beach in Hawaii, comes across a little shallow to me.

Matt

We have a house on Sanibel Island booked for the month of May. It's the same place we've rented for the last 6 years. It's an older place and not extravagant, but it has 4 beds/4 baths, pool, and a dock, so it meets our needs. We invite family and friends to join us. They usually kick in a few $$ to help pay for the rent and groceries. It's become our favorite annual trip.

I usually like to make a quick solo trip down there, at this time of year, mostly to insure my boat is in good running order for our May trip, and also to knock the winter rust off my fly casting stroke. The tarpon arrive around this time, and the early bite can be explosive. I've always been able to find a bed somewhere on the Island for this trip in the past, but not this year. The Island is packed to the gills like I've never seen it before. So, I'll probably just wait for our May trip. But, again, that's all first world problems, right?

I hope you catch some tasty waves, bro, while you're stressing over the plight of the average working folks.

Matt

And it's just beginning.....

You really can't fix stupid!!!

Thank goodness for my onlyfans side gig.

Mail in voting works real well, doesn't it?

I’ve got a diesel that costs $161 and change to fill up yesterday. It wasn’t empty when I started.

This is awesome.

What we are b****ing about on this thread today will seem like the good 'ol days in the near future.

But, of course, the same hand-wringers who have been calling for Biden to shut off the Russian oil spigot since the invasion, will now howl like monkeys when fuel prices go even higher.

Matt

And just getting another job that pays more isn't necessarily a reality either, especially when fuel price is increasing faster than votes changing for biden at 2 a.m. on election night...

The Biden administration held rare in-person meetings with Venezuelan officials in Caracas over the weekend to discuss letting Venezuela start selling crude oil on the open market again as part of an effort to address a surge in oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine. Pressure is mounting for the U.S. to ban imports of Russian oil, and Reinaldo Quintero, president of the association representing Venezuelan oil companies, said that the South American nation could ramp up production to eventually replace the crude the U.S. currently gets from Russia. The U.S. once got much of its imported oil from Venezuela, until the Trump administration cut it off as it attempted to drive out the authoritarian government of President Nicolás Maduro. Russian energy companies and banks helped Venezuela continue exporting oil. [The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal]

You might wanna trim that engine up before you pull it anywhere, though. ;-)

Matt

We won't be much good to the planet or climate or anything if we are in turmoil with a bad economy and unaffordable energy.

I turned the lower unit on my first boat’s 150 Merc into a plow on more than one occasion. With this boat, and my RV after driving off with a door awning out, I now walk around both and make sure everything is in travel position. I can’t remember stuff as I get older but maybe I got a little smarter….. Maybe….

Yeah, sure...

Nice boat Tilzbow! I won’t like putting gas in my truck and my little 150 Suzuki. Add another 250 hp to feed would suck.

Matt

"Let's go get him!"

That 400 Verado does suck to the tune of 1 MPG at WOT (wide open throttle for non-boaters) but she sure is fun! I found a gauge on my Solix that shows she’s drinking 10 to 15 gallons per hour. So, you gotta figure those four 350 Suzukis in your picture are burning about 40 to 50 gallons per hour when they’re wide open. I didn’t really understand why boats had such big fuel tanks until I filled my friend’s 26’ North River at the dock a few years ago and found we’d burned 120 gallons in 3 days of ocean fishing and he’s “only” got a single 300….

True 1st world problems… What’s going on in Ukraine makes our little problems easier to deal with! I definitely feel for those living paycheck to paycheck. This crap is definitely going to impact them in a way worse way than me cutting back on fishing a day or two a month or thinking twice above driving 2,500 round trip miles to hunt an elk.

Kind of like people that pay $8k for a guided hunt using $5k worth of gear then bitching about a $250 meat processing fee?

Yes he is a bubble head, but he did not lie. So many hated Trump so bad, for whatever silly reason, they would not vote for him.... Well now you made your bed, lay in it

You know he's done such a good job at getting rid of them that we're producing a million more barrels a day now vs. when Trump left office.

You can't put a price on fun, but maybe you can get priced out of it. We'll see.

Who knows if it will hit $7 in my area, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all seeing $5 or $5.50 regular unleaded by Memorial Day weekend

Glad I bought a Toyota Prius for a daily driver In late March 2020 the week after the whole world shut down for $2700.00

At current prices I’m saving about $160 per month leaving my Tacoma parked in the garage

I don’t know what “hold oil executives accountable” means so I won’t comment on it. But none of the other points Mr. Bongino raised have actually happened.

"Tuesday’s release followed talks in Caracas on Saturday as the Biden administration sought ways to stave off the impact of soaring U.S. gas prices spurred by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the West’s efforts to punish Moscow for it.

Engagement with Maduro, a longtime U.S. foe, was also aimed at gauging whether Venezuela is prepared to distance itself from Russia." — Reuters

What Biden's actual policy moves have done to fossil fuel production aren't crushing things but certainly aren't helping either. We should be in an operation Warp Speed 2 to get oil, gas, and coal production cranked up. Going "green" is fine but we need to be healthy and strong to make the journey.

If you decide to only eat non-GMO veggies and free-range chickens you grow yourself, thats fine. Bad idea to toss all your other food and swear off the grocery store the day you plant the seeds and buy some chicks. You need to eat and have strength to tend the garden, care for the chicks, fight off the foxes and be prepared when your crops fail or a big hail storm kills your chickens while they range freely.

I think the most asinine thing I’ve heard is people throwing blame at policies that haven’t even been enacted.

Demand has skyrocketed over the last few years as the post pandemic economy has heated up. Are you going to give credit to Biden for a strong economy and strong demand? I’m certainly not, because just like on the supply side, he’s done next to nothing to alter the equation. But by your logic he’s gotta have something to do with the red hot economy.

I see a lot of people like to parrot what our favorite politicians and our favorite talking heads say. This is the height of intellectual laziness. There’s more to the world and what’s happening than Biden.

I didn’t vote for Biden. I think he - and his energy policy - are terrible. I’m not making excuses for him, I’m pointing out facts. If your threshold of “blame” is “he’s in office when it happened” and you choose to ignore the complex realities of what is actually happening in the oil markets, then so be it.

I do agree the gas prices soaring are under Biden’s watch and he now owns it. However, I think there are more things to criticize Biden about that are actually his doing. The afghan withdrawal for one.

If by tax return you mean tax refund, that's merely a measure of how much you overpaid in taxes. You can always overpay more on your taxes if you want a higher refund.

I can't either, Rocky. I recommend CNBC. You have qualified anchors, essentially no political bias, and you get the market slant on all the biggest news.

To stick to the OP, can you explain the factors the affect gas prices the most in this current situation? Then relate whatever Biden had done, or not done to affect that variable…and here is the important part…back it up with facts and not just your opinion.

I will give you one. He is banning the important of Russian oil. That will/has affected gas prices.

“I’m getting more and more confident about the long-term oil strip being much higher than we had expected,” Sheffield told analysts on Thursday during a call to discuss fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 earnings.

Nonetheless, “We’re not going to change…at $100 oil, $150 oil, we’re not going to change our growth rate,” Sheffield said. “We think it’s important to return cash back to the shareholders.”

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/even-at-150-oil-pioneer-natural-to-maintain-0-5-production-growth-ceo-says/

Diamondback to keep oil output flat in 2022

Like other publicly traded producers, Diamondback has prioritized shareholder returns as the industry rebuilds from last year's pandemic-related collapse and years of excess spending prior to then. Chief executive Travis Stice pledged to return 50pc of expected free cash flow to investors starting from the fourth quarter.

Diamondback has shifted from being a company that consumes capital to one that returns capital, Stice said. That outlook would change only if investor sentiment shifts.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2269862-diamondback-to-keep-oil-output-flat-in-2022

Devon Energy Holds the Line on Output Plan

Devon Energy Corp. will boost output no more than 5% this year -- in line with earlier estimates -- signaling discipline is holding even as oil approaches $100 a barrel.

The Oklahoma City-based shale explorer, which closed on its acquisition of rival WPX Energy Inc. in January last year, will keep production in the range of 570,000 to 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. On the low end, that’s flat production; on the high end, it’s on par with the 5% raise analysts had been expecting.

“We will remain extremely disciplined by prioritizing value over the pursuit of volume,” Chief Executive Officer Rick Muncrief said Tuesday in a statement announcing year-end results.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/devon-energy-stands-by-pledge-not-to-boost-2022-output-quickly

Marathon Oil chooses cash returns over oil production ramp-up

Marathon Oil Corp. said oil and natural gas production won’t increase this year as it concentrates on pouring cash into dividends and share buybacks.

The shale giant announced plans to spend $1.2 billion on capital projects this year, in line with analysts’ expectations for a 20% increase from the 2021 level, according to a statement on Wednesday. The company forecasts generating more than $3 billion of free cash flow, exceeding estimates by half a billion dollars.

Marathon said it expects to exceed its commitment to return a minimum of 40% of cash from operations to investors, assuming oil prices average around $60 a barrel or higher. Per-share adjusted earnings of 77 cents exceeded the average estimate by 22 cents.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/2/17/marathon-oil-chooses-cash-returns-over-oil-production-ramp-up/

Damnit, Biden!!

This thread is about gas prices, so that's what I'm focused on. The reality is that current gas prices have WAY more to do with Russia and about twenty other things than it does about climate change initiatives or the current admins energy policy.

Come back and tell me when your solution to climate change is a roadmap to achieving the desired goal. Currently you can’t do it so!

That's not true. There are plenty of roadmaps out there. It all depends on what your energy transition related goals are. Lots of ways to measure progress, and you've left an open-ended timeline on things so there's plenty of time to deliver these roadmaps (regardless of what your goals are). This will be a multi-decade journey and the pace at which me move is going to matter a lot in terms of the economic impact of the transition.

Where do you think they’re going to get the money from for the climate initiative?

Our company has made it pretty clear - the cash delivered by our oil and gas activities is what is going to deliver the energy used in the future. For other companies, there are plenty of ESG dollars being invested in the hopes of funding the "next big thing."

Matt

It has much more to do with the fact that the industry grew substantially between 2010-2020 and was burned twice by price crashes. In that time, all the growth and increased output did little for investors - the margins weren't great and it took a lot of capital to keep up the growth so ultimately shareholder returns lagged just about every other industry during that time. The industry has now scaled back and is generating the same type of cash and is returning it to investors instead of reinvesting it in growth - and oil companies have been rewarded for this.

BEG you can't use demand as a reason for high gas prices. The demand is no higher than it was 2016-2019

It certainly is higher than 2016-2019 right now. This year is expected to mark the highest consumption ever - in the US and globally. Prices might cool that forecast a little, but demand is very strong right now. Supply is suppressed from record high production levels that peaked a month before the pandemic kicked off. Again, suppliers are not interested in raising output only to get burned again.

Apple, as usual? ;-)

Matt

KSFlat - another "pesky" fact for you...

I don’t think for a second that either are wrong giving the situation. Only drawing point to it to show who is behind the lagging supply issue. There is simply no rush to fix this. Higher gas prices means higher oil prices. The people making money off this are going to draw it out as much as possible. For as long as possible.

Corporate doesn’t want prices to go down. Corporate has been waiting on this exact scenario for a while. And, have zero intent of trying to correct it with any earnest. That’s life and that’s the simple facts.

The question remains, how does policy affect this. And, what role did policy play in creating this situation?

Everyone knows why we are here. Everyone knows that policy affecting investment over the long run is just icing on the cake for the puppet masters in charge of producing oil. And, it’s obvious who plays to that drum beat concerning politicians.

So, get ready. This isn’t going to work out for a while. And as it clears, they’ll be another opportunity to curtail supply to keep demand high. And, we will be right back in it.

Both parties will see to that.

Agree. Though it really has little to do with Trump's policies either. There were record O&G bankruptcies under Trump. Again, the forces driving oil and gas markets are much bigger than the man in the White House (which has been my main point all along).

As you can see, share prices reached a high in 2014, then went on a steady grind lower thru 2020. They rose sharply in 2021, and so far this year, but they are still well below the highs that were set 8 years ago. The 10-yr return on this ETF is a pathetic 1.34%, which is consistent with returns of the individual companies within its holdings.

Despite perceptions to the contrary, it really isn't a very lucrative industry to invest in.

Matt

Matt

I've made note of your prediction, Shawn. So when it vanishes after you get banned again, I can remind everyone of it. But, I'm sure you know better than investors who have priced Dec 2022 crude futures contracts in the $87/barrel range. What the hell are they thinking, eh?

Matt

Noted for future reference, again.

FYI, US daily consumption has already exceeded pre-covid levels, while production is lagging behind, hence the current spike. Perhaps you missed that fact while sipping on your Pina colada in Hawaii.

Matt

I guess since all of you were in the service of this country and spend years deployed you have that luxury

Me not so much and there are so many people on this cite much more annoying than Shawn. I still can’t figure out why he is banned. Can’t be from content or we would all be banned

Also, why haven’t our reserves been tapped?!?

Saudis still tied to Russia. That's why they will not help

This administration is so anti American that it should be criminal. Probably is

From the linked Reuters article: “Brent dropped more than 17%, falling to nearly $105 a barrel, after a confluence of headlines sparked a risk-off sentiment throughout markets. The UAE said it will call on its fellow OPEC+ members to boost oil output faster. At the same time, Zelenskiy reiterated to Germany’s Bild newspaper it was ready to make compromises to end the war.”

Seems the markets disagree with your guy.

Matt

I guess since all of you were in the service of this country and spend years deployed you have that luxury

Me not so much and there are so many people on this cite much more annoying than Shawn. I still can’t figure out why he is banned. Can’t be from content or we would all be banned

What the Biden excuse makers don't get is that Trumps strategy to incentivize energy independence not only lowered the cost of fuel to Americans.....but it also kept inflation in check....AND it held the profits down to the Bad actors in the world like the Saudi's and Russia.

Anything over apx. $45/ barrel is pure profit to Russia. So at an apx avg during Trumps admin of $55, they didn't have a lot of room to fool around. In comes Biden with his public war on fossil fuel and pushing clime initiatives....oil jumps up in the $80 range handing Putin Billions of dollars of massive profits on the same barrels.

PUTIN LITERALLY COULDN’T AFFORD TO INVADE UNDER TRUMP- a brilliant strategy really. With Biden and his restrictive policy in there, an invasion only helps put more profit in Putins pocket as it makes the price of oil even higher.

But Beendare.....Biden has not Restricted oil- Psaki and Harris said so. BS, thats a lie- stop listening to Psaki and get the facts; Pipeline restrictions, emission restrictions, Public statements that literally kill investment AND Access to capital on top of everything else.

HERES THE BIG PROBLEM; last time this type of thing happened was early 70's. It created a horrible depression with 18% mortgage rates....and hold onto your ankles- recession is a relative certainty, its a matter of to what degree....as its already started.

The worst part; This Dem Admin has no plan. They are parading Harris and Buttigeg around talking up E cars. Kerry is wringing his hands crying Climate Change is still worse than the invasion in Ukraine....and our almighty leader Biden solution to our problems, "Drive Slower"

Trump was a dick, egomaniac and a bully....but he was our bully, and his policy though not perfect was good for Americans [whether they realize it or not] and ABSOLUTELY prevented this Ukraine Disaster. Personally I hope Trump continues to help the American people by moving into the background and consulting on future policy. https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-consumer-prices-are-rising-their-fastest-pace-over-40-years If you don't believe me check the latest inflation gauges at the link I provided, Zero Hedge "Consumer prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years" Rant over. grin

https://americansforprosperity.org/biden-policies-raising-gas-prices/

PUTIN LITERALLY COULD AFFORD TO INVADE UNDER TRUMP- a brilliant strategy really

What were these Trump era incentives you're referencing? Curious what you think Trump actually did to keep oil prices low?

last time this type of thing happened was early 70's

The last time what type of thing happened? We saw similar oil price levels in 2008, 2011, and 2014, so not sure what other factors you're saying make this equivalent to the 1970s.

recession is a relative certainty, its a matter of to what degree....as its already started

By what measure has recession started? Not seeing it in any of the economic measures we typically use to gauge a recession (real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, etc).

Three questions that I'm genuinely interested in the answers to.

Would have been 2000/01 on the Onion Ranch...

The answers are there for you to research. It only takes a modicum of understanding business and finance to see how Biden completely changed things.

Start researching with the WSJ…or the dept of energy .org for facts.

Whats your guy Bidens strategy for energy independence? Drive slower. Buy an E car? A few renewable projects doesn’t move the needle. No long term solutions from the Dems. The Dems are fumbling around with the sanctions…with Poland, its not only embarrassing but it might just drag us into a war.

TDS cure; Next time you hear someone point fingers at Trump, realize what they are really saying is;” We got nothin, no solutions”

Energy independence; if its not abundantly clear right now that this is crucial……it will to all except John Kerry shortly.

Quit playing semantics with words and timelines. You can’t claim policy doesn’t affect it then Claim bidens policy hasn’t affected it. It’s going to help slam dunk the effect of less supply, less optimism, less everything good and more of everything bad for American households.

Once again, Under the guidance of establishment, America is being held hostage to countries controlling commodities we need. Ain’t that a surprise.

The answers are there for you to research. It only takes a modicum of understanding business and finance to see how Biden completely changed things.

I work for an oil company and have a pretty good idea how this industry works. I’ve done my research and I’ve experienced it firsthand. I asked three straightforward questions.

How did Trump incentivize the industry like you claimed? The four years under Trump were some of the worst, economically speaking, in my twenty year career. Prices were weak, the industry was essentially on life support delivering poor returns, and Trump’s trade war only made life more difficult. You tout low prices…the only thing keeping prices low was oversupply, and the reason we were oversupplied is because a bunch of companies were on their last legs trying to generate some sort of cash to stay afloat. The price crash that occurred during the pandemic killed them - we had record bankruptcies in the sector. It’s the biggest reason why there’s a massive hesitancy to ramp up production at the moment. So please tell me how the industry was incentivized under Trump.

And again, what is happening now that is more like the 70s than the dates I put forward where prices were equally high?

You also said we’re in the beginning stages of a recession. I asked a simple question. Based on what? It certainly isn’t based on GDP, jobs, output, wages, etc because those are all stronger than they’ve been over the last five years. So what is it? Again, I’ve done the research you’ve somehow arrived at a different conclusion so I’d love to know what you’re seeing.

Whats your guy Bidens strategy for energy independence?

Again, he’s not my guy. I didn’t vote for him and never will. And his energy policy is far worse than Trump’s. But he has next to nothing to do with current prices, just like Trump had next to nothing to do with what was playing out in the oil markets under his watch.

And I’ll ask a fourth question (seeing as you skirted the other three, it’s a big gamble). How do you define energy independence? We were still importing energy products under Trump. It appears that we were slightly a net exporter in 2021. We’re on a trajectory to far exceed any oil and gas production levels we achieved under Trump (and also become a much greater exporter of petroleum products as well). And oil and gas is being replaced more and more by other domestically produced energy sources. So I don’t understand what people mean when they say we lost energy independence, so please enlighten me.

Again, this stuff is literally my life. I research and live it everyday. Your conclusions are not what I see, so I’d legitimately love to know how you arrived at them.

Care to be more specific? For the record, I’ve never said policy doesn’t effect prices. I’ve said the policies under Biden have done little to impact the prices in the short term as they won’t likely impact supply for multiple years (or even decades). If they remain in place, and we see domestic production start to crater years out, then yes, we can point the finger at Biden.

May or may not be the case. That said, I don’t see the harm in Beendare asking the questions and showing his work.

- increasing production levels, which will likely exceed record levels reached just prior to the start of the pandemic.

- quotes from multiple CEOs citing ambitions to keep production flat, maintain capital discipline in the face of higher oil prices, and return more money to shareholders.

- capital spending levels which support this assertion

- industry knowledge of the end-to-end oil field lifecycle and thereby the recognition that Biden’s policies targeting oil and gas operations will not impact supply for years to decades, thereby having next to no impact on current prices.

The attached article covers what is truly driving the oil markets over the last few years. It hasn’t been shifts in energy policy.

The primary reason for rising gas prices over the past year is the coronavirus pandemic and its disruptions to global supply and demand.

“Covid changed the game, not President Biden,” said Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, which tracks gasoline prices. “U.S. oil production fell in the last eight months of President Trump’s tenure. Is that his fault? No.

“The pandemic brought us to our knees,” Mr. De Haan added. … Mr. De Haan said the Biden administration was “clearly less friendly” to the industry, which may have indirectly affected investor attitudes. But overall, he said, that stance has played a “very, very small role pushing gas prices up.”

Nothing is gong to change,,,,, he is not going to open up any leases, or permits, and will continue to hammer the private sector, on regulations, its just that simple,

There are private companies today, that have to rewrite up their permits, because they are not gender correct. Private in Texas is pumping,,,,,,,,,,

The Climate Change crowd, would rather cover their eyes, see the dirty fuel from our enemies, than touch our own, where we doing in cleaner.

Yesterday John Kerry said that Climate change will be worse than the Ukranian war. This is what they believe. I can assure you Wind Mills would not be allowed on Marthas Vineyard, in front of Kerry or Obamas house.............................

This has been covered ad naseum. It’s because for the last 10-15 years - up to the pandemic - the industry has grown…and shareholders were awarded for that growth with essentially zilch. As Abhiram Rajendran, the head of oil market research at Energy Intelligence, said in the article I posted:

“But presidents, Mr. Rajendran said, “have very little impact on short-term supply.”

“The key relationship to watch is between companies and investors.”

Shareholders have spoken - they don’t want growth. They don’t want capital pumped back into the business. They want it returned to them.

Sure, we want more leases at our disposal for long term security. But those will do nothing in the short term and have little to do with what’s happening now.

Inclined to agree with you, but will admit I am no expert with industry experience like BEG.

Some of the biggest investors in alternative energies are big oil, and like all companies, they will chase profits. Democrat policies for years have changed investment strategies in favor of green. Without these policies, what would the returns and investment in fossils fuels have been, or what would the supply have been today without the market distorting incentives, again mainly supported for decades by Joe’s party which he has been part of for 5 decades?

Jason is probably correct that since coming into office Joe’s policies have not had time to effect the market significantly, but given his votes thru the years he shares in the blame, IMHO and non-professional opinion only.

Bias source

Like I said before, a game of semantics. Link? Look at your posts. I’ve been watching you distinguish time lines only when it suits your argument. For no other reason then to argue.

You want to see oil and gas prices go through the roof, pass that piece of legislation. Windfall profit tax would be a terrible idea.

Bias source

Why is Abhiram Rajendran a biased source? I can post the same quote from every other oil market analyst worth their salt.

Yeah, you been real quick to point out the short term when discussing Biden. But, forget about the long term. Which is where results from policy is realized.

I thought we were talking about current gas prices. Are we not? I distinguish timelines because certain things matter in the short term, and certain things matter in the long term.

People keep pointing to Biden’s energy policy - which I agree is terrible - as playing a huge roll in what is happening to gas prices now. It’s not.

We are barely a year removed from Trump being in office. I hate to break it to you, but when it comes to the energy policy and how oil and gas companies are strategizing against that landscape - nothing has really changed from when oil was in the $50/bbl range a year ago. We’ve got rig schedules that are planned out for years that haven’t significantly been adjusted. We’re approaching production levels that peaked pre-pandemic and will likely surpass them this year. In fact, the Energy Secretary was out pleading for a drastic ramp up of production. Highly unlikely oil companies plan to change course to deliver it. It will be too costly and take too long against the backdrop of what most believe is a temporary surge in prices.

You want to blame someone for current gas prices, it’s the pandemic (both the crash and now the growing demand as we recover), look towards shareholders who have pushed for restrained growth, look towards Russia. The Keystone XL and decision on the federal leasing moratorium are so far down the list of things that matter with respect to current prices.

If you legitimately thought the legislation had a chance of passing, no you wouldn’t. I said it’s a horrible piece of legislation and I give it a snowballs chance in hell of making it into law.

And what has that immediate reaction from producers been? How have we changed course right now in response to Biden’s policies?

This year they will struggle, so my food plots do not seem too important

Frank, if you don't think the fossil fuel industry has benefitted from subsides for decades, and continues to be, you may want to do a little research on the topic.

The bottom line is our energy markets have always been "distorted" by government "incentives", and will likely always be. That's why the US has historically enjoyed relatively cheap fuel costs. And make no mistake, it will be "Big Oil" leading the way into our energy future, whatever form that may take. After all, they have the resources, infrastructure, and R&D capabilities to make it happen.

Matt

Aware of it for sure. But the incentives for green distort the market away from fossils and is having an impact on what we pay at the pump.

Not judging it, just I guess stating the obvious, policies have consequences and these policies have basically been a regressive “tax”. It will be a tsunami at the polls this November unless course is reversed soon. Thanks.

Trump publicly declared he was making us energy independent- and for a short time he did and it worked to lower the price of oil and keep inflation in check. You cannot argue it didn’t, its a fact that it did.

The price of oil would drop immediately if Biden did a U turn and stated we are pulling out the stops and going to make the US energy independent.

Another fact you don’t seem to understand; Markets are not a simple supply/demand ratio…some of it is perception. We have many examples to draw from.

Another fact; Sometimes these experts are wrong. A financial guy I follow rated it a 30% chance Putin invades- huge fail. Everyone has their own biases they use to make decisions and pronouncements. Its the trait of a critical thinker not to become so convicted in your thinking.

Goldman revised their GDP growth from 3.3% to 1.75% and a 35% chance of a recession. We literally turned on a dime and there is nothing coming from the Biden admin that is going to improve our situation.

THE SCARY PART…and it almost guarantees things are going to get a lot worse is this admins focus. They are not focused on inflation..or rampant crime…or legit immigration policy. Their focus; Harris proclaiming E cars …Buttigeg proclaiming we are installing more E car charging stations….Kerry wringing his hands stating Climate Change is more important than whats going on with Putin/Ukraine.

How are things going to improve when we have an admin that can’t find their ass with both hands?

As I said in the investing thread….we have to look forward and prep for the future. A slowdown is imminent, plan accordingly.

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I will challenge that point. Nobody has provided a consistent or meaningful definition of what it means to be energy independent. Can you define “energy independence?” By what measure did we achieve it?

Goldman revised their GDP growth from 3.3% to 1.75% and a 35% chance of a recession. We literally turned on a dime and there is nothing coming from the Biden admin that is going to improve our situation.

So, Goldman expects us to deliver the same GDP growth that Trump did (it was cut from 2% to 1.75% on Q4 to Q4 basis, not 3.3%), and they see a 65% chance that we don’t fall into a recession. Got it.

I understand plenty about markets and the role of perception. What is the consensus perception on oil prices and oil production over the next few years right now?

I know that doesn't fit the popular narrative, here, but they are facts.

Matt

I still think equating the net petroleum trade to energy independence ignores a whole host of other factors that should be part of the independence equation. We became a net exporter in 2020 because we fell deep into recession and consumption dropped to 25 year lows and we did not need the foreign supply. I for the life of me can’t figure out why this is a data point to be celebrated.

It's really not that difficult to understand, IMO. US oil production dropped by 1 billion barrels a day during 2020 and 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels. That was due to an equal drop in consumption during that period, not because of any new energy policies. Now, demand has suddenly ramped back up to pre-pandemic levels, and production hasn't caught up. As the ConocoPhillips chairman said in the video I posted above, it takes 8-12 months for new production to reach the markets. Combine that with the impact of Russia's production no longer hitting the markets, and we have a major imbalance in the supply/demand formula right now. We can tap into reserve inventories for a few months to ease the pressure on prices some, but that's a short term fix. I hate to say it, but I doubt we'll see a significant drop in prices at the pump until 2023, or maybe longer.

Matt

I can now understand why many get frustrated with a few of us here who might act like we know more than we actually do, thanks to google:-)

Most of the folks here are a little longer in the tooth. They have witnessed market gyrations in different industries over decades and know some have been made worse by bad policy decisions. They are smart enough to piece it all together without the spewing of book smart/industry experience know it alls, including myself. My apologies! Life experiences are the best education.

Hope to relinquish my position on a certain list to someone else.

;-)

Believing Biden’s energy policies are bad (they are IMO) and believing they aren’t impacting current prices (they aren’t IMO) don’t have to be mutually exclusive beliefs.

I know it’s easy to regurgitate whatever you hear from your politicians about the pain at the pump - energy independence, Keystone XL, etc - but that’s all they are - political talking points, and they mean little when it comes to the dynamics of what is playing out in the market at the moment.

Also, energy policy is only one part of the price. Foreign policy failures have big effect as well.

I don't claim to be an expert on the energy markets. However, I do admit to listening, learning, and believing what I hear from people who are. CNBC has become my preferred source for information. During the day, the vast majority of people they interview are corp executives of successful companies, who explain the dynamics of things that affect their businesses. IMO, on balance, they offer an informed perspective without politically biased opinions, and I try to pass that info on. If that earns me "top ten" honors, here, I'll proudly wear that cap.

Have a great day, my friend.

Matt

Of course the president can affect oil.

We have a current admin with skewed priorities. We were headed to higher inflation and recession already, the Ukraine situation only exacerbated it.

AAA did a study; 59% of people say they will adjust their lifestyle at $4 gas. 75% say they will adjust for sure at $5 gas. Its a relative certainty its going to affect folks, especially the lower and middle class. Diesel here is bumping between $6.69-$7. Gas at $6+. We don’t need tea leaves to see this is going to be bad.

I’m no econ expert but the signs are there. An admin that is clueless. The Dems pushed a huge spending bill through- today- totally ignoring inflation- no cure in sight. The reps are no better, capitulating.

The economists and financial gurus are perennial optimists- they always underestimate these downturns. Be careful who you listen to especially risking real money.

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Never have I ever said perceptions don’t matter. You’re putting words in my mouth. What I’ve said I’m saying is that for the oil companies who have to base their strategies on actions being taken by the administration, the people trading oil, and for people whose job it is to assess their impact on the oil markets, the overwhelming perception is the administration’s actions won’t do much to move prices in the short term. Furthermore, there’s really nothing he can do domestically that will provide any relief.

Why do you keep avoiding the questions I’ve asked? How about answering just one…how would you define energy independence? Still waiting on someone to adequately define it.

There are many elements to fossil fuel production. (Exploration, transport, refining, etc) When it comes to exploration, the industry has ALWAYS been volatile. (I grew up in what is now the heart of the Bakken oil fields. ) We aren't like Louisiana. The oil economy pivots on exploration. (Not refining) We only have one small refinery in the state. Prior to Dakota Access Pipeline, the oil from Bakken was sold at a discount. (~$7 per barrel as memory serves) Trains were primary transport from much of 201x's. But we still need many more pipelines. (Our oil has lots of natural gas.) Due to insufficient pipeline capacity, we are flaring off gas. (10-15% of all extracted gas) (Yes the same gas which runs your stove, heats your water, or runs your power plant) We have giant bunsen burners across the oil fields. Why is this worth noting? What is one greatest initiatives of this administration? (And Obama admin) Being green.

What oil companies hate is sharp valleys or spikes. They prefer consistency. Remember what I said about long term certainty? No oil exploration or fossil fuel transportation company is going to investing in infrastructure (Drilling or pipelines) unless the long term packback (>10 years) is there.

The regulatory environment and anti fossil fuel rhetoric of the Obama administration (and now Biden) is a wet blanket on pipeline construction and exploration. Whether it is felt in other parts of the country, I don't know. But I can tell you in ND the moment Trump was elected, the wet blanket was removed. (Moreso psychological) Did I vote for Trump? Yes. Is he he loud mouth blowhard who says dumb@ss sh!t and cannot keep his cakehole shut? YES! But from a policy standpoint, oil exploration and pipeline construction companies had greater confidence their projects would reach maturity. The pandemic (tied to lack demand) derailed that momentum.

Oil companies (all facets ) have cash on hand. Could they spend it? Yes. Will they (on industry expansion)? No. Can they borrow money to expand production? No. Why. Long term economic uncertainty. Same as companies are reluctant to spend on capital expenditures, lending institutions will not borrow money to these companies because they see the same politically stifling long term outlook the companies do. So they take cash on hand and and channel it to shareholders.

Today, we have an administration which still continues to worship at the alter of the green movement at the expense of encouraging domestic exploration, transportation and refining. So much so the administration is willing to court different totalitarian countries for oil.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-europe-saudi-arabia-f30cd495adf6a7c58b269d508f3007b2

https://www.kvrr.com/2022/03/07/burgum-biden-plan-to-buy-oil-from-venezuela-iran-absolutely-absurd/

The #1 thing the US could do for long term economic and national security is take the gloves off domestic exploration, transportation and production. Putin (Who is a thug) was laughing while the west was worshipping a teenage Swedish girl. We need to learn from Putin's approach. (Again, he is a commie A Hole who needs a sudden case of lead poisoning) He got western Europe addicted to Russia' oil/gas supplies. How can the US buy oil from this commie? Because our domestic policies and regulation is so F'd up it makes more sense (economically) for refineries to buy from the commie. The US (and moreso Europe) has been stupid enough to go down this path once. Are we stupid enough to hitch our cart to foreign supplies again? Sadly, yes. (Again, how the current president can affect the market/supply) The current admin refuses to even acknowledge they are on the wrong road. Much less have the balls to reverse course.

I covered a lot of real estate. Hopping off my soap box. I didn't know I was going to be this good today! LOL!

With todays oil prices why don't they drill? They cannot turn on a dime. The bulk of the workers were from out of state. They moved. How hard is it to hire today? (in any occupation!)

I agree with you on nuclear. But why is a plant permit the same cost ($5M) whether it is a "standard" plant or one of the small plants? (IE What Gates is trying to build in Wyoming) Because the political class wants it that way. (Full disclosure. I was a subcontractor at a nuke plant for 20 years)

The bulk of the green movement is a religion. If you are not on board with their preachings, you are a heretic and you are to be shunned by the believers.

With that said, the oil industry under Trump was skating by. As we’ve discussed, the ROI was generally terrible across the entirety of the industry - particularly at $50/bbl. Yes, there were bright spots, but you saw what happened once prices fell. The industry got hammered. Biden can take the gloves off, but it’s not really going to change anything from a producer perspective. There are plenty of idled rigs and plenty of permitted activity that is going to stay sidelined.

Drycreek’s comment about labor is spot on too - we laid off about 40% of this industry over the last five years. You can just flip a switch and turn back on that capability. Even if you could, there’s major hesitation about growing too, big too fast.

No one thinks prices are going to stay above $100/bbl for long. Most companies are still screening projects WAY below $100/bbl. If it’s profitable at say $50/bbl, everything else is just upside. Last thing you want to do is start ramping up and bringing the marginal projects on (those that are profitable above, say, $90/bbl), only to have prices drop out of the sky again.

Been there, done that. Shareholders are making sure we don’t make the same mistake again.

Do we really have to define Energy independence for you BEG?

We could put a small surcharge on the oil we have to help fund the build out of a reliable grid with Nuclear and Renewables.

Nuclear is not the same as the reactors built 40 yrs ago- technology has come a long way. Compare a 1980's car to one of today...night and day difference.

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Yes. If it’s being a net exporter of petroleum products, that’s a terrible metric to measure the health of our domestic energy supply. We were a net exporter in 2021 and likely going to be a net exporter in 2023. Are y’all gonna applaud Biden when that happens again?

He has essentially nothing to do with it and it doesn’t mean much at the end of the day, but the way y’all fawn over Trump for this country being a net exporter in 2020 (in a year when domestic consumption hit 25 year lows and oil production dropped by a million barrels a day), I can’t wait to see what happens when we hit all time production records and are a net exporter of petroleum in 2023.

Does that mean Biden will have redelivered energy independence?

I can’t say if wind is more profitable then other energy sources. But I have worked in wind construction since the late 90’s. A lot has changed in that industry over the years. We went from putting up .75 MW units in the 90’s to 5 MW units today. Hub heights in the 90’s were around 60 meters. Now days projects are looking at hub heights in the 130 meter range. The higher you go the more wind you have.

There are numerous variables that control investors ROI. Turbine type, maintenance contracts, PPA’s, land leases etc. The investors I have talked to are looking for a 7% ROI after 30 years.

People have absolutely no clue on how much we use petroleum for energy and non-energy product needs in the US.

Elections have consequences, Joe is doing exactly what he proposed, just like his opponents will swing it the other way if they get elected. Some are saying the mid-terms will be a white wash for the Dems(if it's a fair election).

I just drove through Iowa yesterday, the majority of the wind turbines had to be shut down due to the high winds, So cold isn't the only issue that will shut down that type of "green energy" grid. Petroleum is then the backup (below zero again today). Global warming for mid-March...what is the optimum temperature of the Earth again???

Its going to add $1,000 a month to my one companies Direct OH…and apx another $1,000 in material cost surcharges. According to Biden I am supposed to eat that and not pass it on to Clients.

Record inflation that many young guys here have not seen in their lifetime, Mr Biden…Whats your plan?

Driving slower hasn’t moved the needle…..

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And guess what gang? IT'S JUST BEGINNING!!!! A year from now this will seem like the good 'ol days.

Democrats couldn't run diarrhea.

Oil companies regularly lose money. In four of the past ten years, the oil industry lost money. Big oil lost $76 billion just two years ago. Therefore, they are proceeding with caution. They are maintaining more capital discipline. They aren’t rushing to do projects with the assumption that oil prices will remain above $100/bbl. They are doing projects with the assumption that in a year or more when the projects might pay off, oil prices will have retreated to well below $100/bbl.

If North America has oil that’s not being exploited, that seems like a good place to start.

For those that think the Keystone “XL” would of fixed this are wrong. That was only the final leg from Cushing to the Gulf. Those refiners would of benefited from the better price feed stocks.

Refineries are not real profitable assets right now. They are hard to run, expensive and come with high risk. Shell divested 100% of their assets the last two years. The RFS which requires ethanol blending costs these companies millions annually. You know why? Because the rule was implemented when we though we needed to blend ethanol to save oil. Who pays for that? All of us.

So ask yourself, why do we still blend ethanol? Politics, simply politics.

If any of you have noticed, nobody is building “new” refineries if anything the number is getting smaller.

Lord help us!!!

The immediate future looks bleak for more inflation with no viable solutions from any of our politicians, Dem or Reps.

They all piled in on the $1.5trillion bill last week- 600 add ons jacking that up is only going to exacerbate inflation. NY’s Schumer added 59 all by himself- shameful! They are spending like a bunch of drunken sailors ( my apologies to all sailors)

I’m positioned in energy, mining and commodity ETFs, not so much to make money but to hedge the losses we are sure to see in everything else. I did buy a 2x inverse ETF on the European index last week on the uptick which surprisingly has yet to payoff in a big way, its only been a few days. Im 50% in cash and a bunch of tech stocks and ETFs are in my buy range but I’m on hold. As I said in the previous stock thread, I think its going to get worse for the US economy and it could get a lot worse.

If anyone has ideas on how to hedge the upcoming recession, Im all ears. Installing a Diesel tank at my construction yard is not an option.

.

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Unfortunately it was in Venezuela and Russia.

$116 to fill it. I love my truck but I hate it. Lol

FUEL; Its holding at $5.99 for regular 87 octane here, $6.69 diesel

.

Hey, Shawn Magyar, did you notice crude futures are around $96/barrel this morning? That's just a little shy of your prediction. LOL!

Matt

Down ~30% from peak in just a week. Future contracts at year end going for closer to $80-85/bbl. This volatility is why you’ll see continued capital discipline on the part of the oil industry.

Omicron in China dropping demand. China shutting down and locking up. That would be just like part my quote like FNN! Guess you like that assessment?

Our Top General Mark Milley told congress and the world Russia would take Ukraine in 3 days! This guy is Military counsel to Potus!!

Does not bother me a bit the folks wont have to 10/gal gas thanks to Chinese Omicron.

Do very well when oil stays at 50 or over.

With Raskin out of Fed Chair position now. Fossils fuels are much safer for all. Thank Joe Manchin!

Funny how Russia sanctioned sanctioned Milley, Hillary, Joebama, Austin, Hunter.

Thank goodness oil prices are coming down.

Its worth having a tube of 5200, the marine sealant in your truck around here.

Some of you need to go get shawn exorcised from living rent free in some of your heads. Kind of embarrassing I would think

Lots of folks getting plastic tanks punched in cities while they are at work. Time to put a 1/4” steel skid plate around bottom of tank!

Flex seal baby. Get you home!

Cuz the Gvt thought giving 100% and then some for so long they do let me live Rent Free.

Then of course i took care the rest. Lets see what market does after the Fed chairs two day conference? The car i have in Hawaii has a 10gal tank EV hybrid. Think ive burned two gallons in 250 miles. Perfect timing for highest has blip in history.

By time i get back maybe the cChinese Omicron be bad enough itll drop oil demand like Covid did?

Drop it lolw low so we all can hit the High Country with single strings in September!

Inflation is just for "regular" people...this Congress thing sounds like a really great gig!

Matt

See you at Worlds this summer? Dollar a point ? $20 a point in shoot-offs Titterbaby? Single strings only in WV?

Liver shots may get you an 8 at elk sized targets?.

Shawn bothers you and some others. Which in a free country is ok

But there is not much enjoyment that is evident in your posts to Shawn

No worries either way. He ain't going anywhere and you and others will continue to care about that

On another subject that actually counts. When do you head for Florida to chase Tarpon? Did you get the live bait artificial worked out? I still have problems with redfish on artificials. Live bait is easy but I just can't make the soft baits work on the big ones. Trout all day long, LOL !

Matt.

A complete narcissist. Look at his last post.

So that makes ok? Just accept it? Maybe people need to stand up to the unempathetic BS behavior and call it out. Maybe the world would be a better place and there wouldn’t be so much division in this country if people call it out. If you stay silent with the divisive rhetoric then your are part of the problem as much as those that push divisions IMO.

The things we are doing are the opposite of solutions. Its not incompetence. There's plenty of that in government but we are far beyond just making stupid decisions. Normal goals like America being free, prosperous, secure, a great ally and a terrible enemy aren't shared by people making decisions for us.

Then the Dem geniuses in Congress are proposing printing money to give people a rebate ( blatant pandering for votes and sure to make inflation worse. Hey dumbasses, you kicked off inflation with your last free money handout during Covid)

Another proposal is to jack the oil companies taxes for their gouging which is an obvious, “ don’t look at our crummy policy, look at THEM)

With idiots like this running the country it’s going to be a miracle if we don’t go into a major recession.

Now we have Gropin' Joe, who's been a DC hack for his entire working life. What could possibly go wrong?

I'll take mean tweets ANYDAY!!!

When asked for the primary reason publicly traded oil producers are restraining growth, pressure to maintain capital discipline was overwhelmingly at the top of the list (~60% of respondents labeled it as the main reason). Government regulations came in last on the list with ~5% of respondents saying they're the primary reason for the lack of production growth.

Matt

Of course oil execs are worried about Capital discipline…don’t you realize that is politically driven? Biden could drop the price of oil with a simple policy switch- Nope, instead he is going to unleash high prices and more inflation on the avg person.

Now; Giving $400 checks for gas rebates like the IDIOT proposal from Newsome is only going to juice inflation and do nothing to help gas prices….

Unfortunately, many voters aren’t smart enough to see whats happening here………and they are easily fooled.

.

Matt

His policies are terrible. I’m not making excuses for them. I’m saying - along with the vast majority of oil executives - that they have very little to do with the current supply situation in the country. You, for some reason, continue to fight this fact despite people far more in the know telling you this is what is driving the current situation.

Of course oil execs are worried about Capital discipline…don’t you realize that is politically driven?

This has nothing to do with politics. It has everything to do with shareholder expectations and the fact that the industry generated terrible returns to their investors while in growth mode from 2010-2020.

Biden could drop the price of oil with a simple policy switch

And what policy switch would instantly bring millions of new barrels to market in the next few months?

Matt

Glunt seemed to be jealous of the gas prices in Russia and Venezuela in his post further up, so there's likely at least one person on here in favor of government subsidized gasoline.

Independent producers, defined by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) as those with less than $5 million in annual retail oil and gas sales or with less than an average of 75,000 barrels of crude oil refined on a daily basis, are responsible for producing 83 percent of America’s oil and 90 percent of America’s natural gas. Unlike their larger corporate rivals such as Exxon, these comparatively small producers are ill-equipped to adapt to the cascade of taxes and regulations from the Biden administration to keep their operations sustainable. (comment from these small producers) “There are 4,621 permits to drill awaiting approval by the Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management. Your appointees could approve these permits now, enabling communities to [move] forward with development,” the coalition wrote. “So, yes, Mr. President, your administration is ‘holding the industry back’ in direct contradiction to your statements last week when you said your administration was not… We stand ready to assist in any way possible.” [Article From The Federalist, "Smaller Oil And Gas Producers Blast Biden’s Blame Game On High Energy Prices"]

UNBELIEVABLE; The Biden admin didn't invite input from the folks responsible for 83% of the supply....thats good leadership? Heck, they don't even understand the problems they are creating......

Biden had an E car summit...and didn't invite Tesla. Anybody seeing a trend here?

It reeks of the Obama quote, "You didn't build this" and the Dems prevailing loathing of business in America.

>

And Shawn, you clearly need to do more research to understand the relationship between spot and future prices. You do realize they converge as they reach the future contract’s delivery date, don’t you?

You post a Market Watch internet chart like that tells the story-OMG, Dude, its embarrassing.

The Capital issues you copied are POLICY RELATED.....you don't seem to be getting any of this. Granted its a complex issue and Biden and the Dem's in Congress are only part of the problem....but they are a big part.

Please explain; How is the democrat solution of giving out Billions to people going to solve the fuel crisis and high prices without Juicing inflation?

From what I understand, those permits are approved but they’re in the “less than desireable” locations, so there isn’t much value in drilling on those permits. Hence the lack of desire to execute them.

That chart had nothing to do with you. It was directed at Shawn’s prove predictions, which are way more bullish than what the market thinks.

The Capital issues you copied are POLICY RELATED.....you don't seem to be getting any of this.

I encourage you to stop listening to politicians and start listening to company executives, industry analysts, and institutional investors as they are the ones whose voice matters on this. It has nothing to do with politics. Investors don’t want free cash dumped into growth - they want it returned to them.

Please explain; How is the democrat solution of giving out Billions to people going to solve the fuel crisis and high prices without Juicing inflation?

I never said it would solve anything. I think it’s a bad idea.

From what I understand, those permits are approved but they’re in the “less than desireable” locations, so there isn’t much value in drilling on those permits. Hence the lack of desire to execute them.

And hence my comment about the unapproved permits. It’s very likely that even if they were approved tomorrow they’d sit unused like those 9,000 permits. Some would be deemed not great opportunities. For the attractive ones, companies would very likely pace investment (again, capital discipline) in a way that left them more resilient to any future price shocks and kept employment and other supply chain variables stable.

Matt

*Predicted* spot prices. And after one day, they’re already off 8%.

He did propose more financial penalties on producers which should make prices drop...hey...wait a second????

Worst quarter on markets in two years.

New tax increase in budget would be largest ever in US history

NG double in price, Oil tripled in price, helium has sky rocketed in price

New budget wants to tax fossil fuels even more

new Polls for Joseph Biden at 35-39%

Powell refuses to raise rates the required 5% over current inflation rate to curb it and are still printing QE money.

This is about as bad as American's have ever seen it in 90 years

Wants to remove title 42 right during the high illegal migrant travel season.

JJ jr

There are so many examples of Trump making strategic pro active moves…where this current admin is totally ‘Finger to the Wind’ reactive.

These hacks couldn't run diarrhea! Just look at any Democrat run state or major city....clusterfarces....EVERY one of them!

He did, but it was meant as more of a handout to the producers getting hammered during the pandemic as an attempt to keep them afloat. Still ended up with record oil company bankruptcies under his watch.

“The small to midsize oil producers, which are the focus of the initial crude oil purchase, employ thousands of Americans,” said Under Secretary of Energy Mark W. Menezes. “These businesses have been particularly hard hit by recent events but under President Trump’s leadership, we are taking swift action to assist hard hit producers and deliver strong returns to the taxpayer.”

But, I suspect you know that BEG. Which is why you had to counter the good by claiming record failure rates of oil companies under bud watch. What a flippin’ one sided political pendent you are.

Let’s not blame Covid or liberal policy during Covid for the downturn. Let’s blame Trump. Atta’ boy.

LOL that’s rich. You guys remember when Republicans actually believed in fiscal conservatism and didn’t applaud government bailouts? I miss those days.

JJjr

Article from “The Hill”, excerpt:

Last September, as the Build Back Better legislation was being considered in Congress, many members worried about the inflationary pressure of injecting an additional $2.4 trillion into the economy on top of the $4.1 trillion committed to the American Rescue Plan and the Cares Act.

When it looked like the Democratic majority might include enough deficit hawks to scuttle the bill, Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz rounded up another 16 of the 36 living American Nobel Prize economists to declare, in an open letter, that whatever upward pressure on prices all this new money might bring there was no threat of inflation. Forget what government statistics were already signaling. Many non-Nobel economists recognized that a clear case of demand-pull inflation was already underway. The price of used cars, the vehicles people buy when new cars seem unaffordable, led a clearly rising consumer price index.

The Nobelists’ letter showed that those signing had bought Team Biden’s novel argument that its enormous expansion of social welfare programs really was just a different form of infrastructure investment, just like roads and bridges

WRONG!

I even mentioned it to the cashier, and she was like “meh…”.

This is what I paid two weeks ago in Jersey

Apparently they think Russia will become desperate for cash.

Gasoline yesterday at $4.239 here. (Central MA) Diesel is over $6/gal.

Was talking to a heating oil delivery guy a few days ago, their price per gallon jumped last week, a lot. Good thing the weather is warming up...

BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATS TO THE RESCUE. Just in; The Biden is floating proposals to BUY BACK OIL this fall for the SPR that he just released. This immediately jacked the price of oil to $110/barrel.

The current crop of Democrat politicians in charge are clueless.

Can anyone be this stupid? Sell SPR….then buy back higher……or are they actually screwing us on purpose because you literally can’t initiate worse policy decisions if you tried.

That’s not what the market believes. Good news is you can put your money where your mouth is as futures contracts are all priced lower than current spot prices.

Why we filled up the reserves at top dollar… I have no non-cynical ideas….

I just love the way you guys can spot every bad, corrupt or self-serving decision when anyone from “the other party” does something vile or stupid…. and turn such a blind eye when it’s one from your own party committing the offense.

No clue what half of this statement even means, but it’s quite hilarious you talk about competent energy investment while at the same time implying CVX’s current valuation (or any oil company) is based on current spot prices. They are not, which is why folks like Buffett still see CVX as a buy even if oil prices come off these highs.

And Ike, care to share what a “fair” amount of profit for these companies to make is? Their margins are about 10%…far less than most industries. So how much should their profits be when they’re spending $150-200+ bln to fund their business?

Nothing is going to change for the better for a while. Plagiarized capitalism will see to that. Established political parties have done well enslaving every single American alive.

These are the same idiots saying policy isn’t affecting your fuel prices. We will see come fall. But, it’ll be something else then. Not policy. SMH

Simply put, no, it doesn’t. All you have to do is take a look at the BEP of various basins and realize margins matter. If they didn’t, all of these lines would be the same height. Yes, more volumes can deliver more profit, but it often comes at eroded margin as companies will take the good stuff first.

And I haven’t seen anyone say policy doesn’t matter. The only idiots I see are the ones who think policy is the reason for the current pain at the pump, yet can’t point to any policy that is actually limiting production. For the hundredth time, it isn’t. I encourage you to google “oil industry capital discipline” and see where that takes you. There’s a quarterly report from the Dallas Fed that surveys energy executives. Feel free to see what they are saying about the primary reason they’re not growing production. But hey, I’m sure you know more than me (a petroleum engineer who has worked in the industry for 20 years) and you know better than the countless executives running these oil businesses, WVM.

Two more charts. Here’s the company I work for showing quarterly production vs profit and margins. As you can see quite clearly, volumes do not dictate profit. Anything else you want me to show you’re wrong about?

Hmmm, and prices are going up as I predicted…..

Time to reevalute what you think you know, eh?

FYI, its a terrible situation that costs the avg American dearly. I’m not trying to rub your nose in it, just trying to warn folks to plan accordingly.

There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye. Today, Biden made the waery claim, “There are xxxxx oil leases that aren’t being used” trying to blame the oil companies for his own terrible policy.

Bidens policy statements before he was inaugurated caused the price of oil to move. Then it continued to move up in the $80 plus range which put enough money in Putins pocket that he could invade Ukraine. The other thing Biden ( actually its Obama, Soros and ? that are really calling the shots) did was restrict supply so Putin knew that if he invaded the price of oil would jump even more giving him another 30% of profits.

A double Bubble as the Brits call it. Trump knew that when the oil is flowing worldwide, the price per barrel moderates. Russian cost per barrel is $42 or so. Trumps policy kept Russian (and Saudi, Venezuelan) profits low. Putin didn’t have the funds to invade anyone or at least it would be tougher. Biden giving him a $40 per barrel profit and later $80/barrel profit…..it tipped the scales in Putins pocketbook.

Policy is a key driver in price at the pump….no matter how much Biden tries to claim otherwise. Biden claims to open the market…but his liberal progressive Fed agencies stonewall anything fossil fuels.

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No they didn’t.

The other thing Biden ( actually its Obama, Soros and ? that are really calling the shots) did was restrict supply

In the short term, no he hasn’t. We are producing more oil as a country now than when Trump left office. That said, neither of those two men (Trump/Biden) have much of anything to do with that fact.

Biden giving him a $40 per barrel profit and later $80/barrel profit…..it tipped the scales in Putins pocketbook.

You can thank a strong economy and increased demand for $80/bbl, not Biden.

Policy is a key driver in price at the pump….no matter how much Biden tries to claim otherwise. Biden claims to open the market…but his liberal progressive Fed agencies stonewall anything fossil fuels.

No, it’s not. You clearly have minimal knowledge on the timescale associated with impacting the crude oil supply to market. The only policy that has been enacted has been on lease sales, and any production affected by that would not hit the market for years or even decades. These policies are terrible, but they are not impacting current supply or demand.

They. Have. No. Impact. On. Current. Prices.

Why does the east coast pay apprx double for the same nat gas as the balance of the US? Clear and simple, Its stupid Democrat policy.

Hey, lets release a bunch of oil from the SPR to lower prices…..and of course it didn’t move much because folks are smart enough to know thats a very short term fix. The announcement that inventories were building dropped the price more than that SPR release a week earlier. ( which makes the SPR release look even dumber.

Then what does idiot Biden do right after the release, he announces he will be looking to buy it all back in the fall….instantly prices shot back up. A president couldn’t screw this up any worse if they tried….which is looking more and more like thats what they are actually trying to do while blaming everyone/everything else.

Its either massive stupidity….or intentional. Its like selling your car…and telling the buyer you really want it back. Sure, its yours but its going to cost you.

59 bear posts relevant info of shortages, that has a direct affect on the price at the pump….contradicting your theory that futures contracts control everything.

There are many factors…your boy Biden and his puppet masters are a big one.

Deny all you want…but policy has an effect on prices. We have been living through it. You are saying its just a coincidence that during Trump The price at the pump was lower than both with Obama and Biden? Ridiculous.

When you do put the pieces together and realize Bidens policy opened the door for Putin to invade Ukraine. POLICY that handed Putin exorbitant profits with the promise of even more if he invades…….then you will be as mad as the rest of us.

You said the price at the end of the year was going to be higher, I said that’s not what the market thinks. The futures price is merely a view of the market about what’s going to happen, not what has.

The actual price at the pump doesn’t keep going up. It dropped from March to April. Regardless, I never said prices aren’t high. I said the things you point to - namely Biden - aren’t the reason.

59 bear posts relevant info of shortages, that has a direct affect on the price at the pump….contradicting your theory that futures contracts control everything.

That datapoint - distillate inventories - means nothing without context. There is no evidence that the changes in inventories have anything to do with supply shortages. In fact, if you google distillate production you’ll see supply hasn’t changed much at all under Biden. Again, these are inventory levels (not production) of a refined product and mean next to nothing when it comes to prices you pay at the pump. They are a lagging indicator and without context are irrelevant to this conversation.

If you have questions about crude oil supply (which matters to the price of oil, which is the biggest contributor to the price of gasoline), the answers lie in looking at actual crude oil production and other data like active rig counts. That is relevant data, not distillate inventories.

And where did I say futures prices control everything?? They don’t “control” much of anything at all. They are an outcome of the views the market has on the balance of supply and demand for crude oil. The collective market believes prices are coming down. You have a different opinion which goes against that consensus. You may ultimately be right - I’m merely pointing out that it’s a contrarian view.

You are saying its just a coincidence that during Trump The price at the pump was lower than both with Obama and Biden? Ridiculous.

Yes, that’s the point. Despite what politicians want to tell you, oil prices are moved by many things but it’s rarely the person in the Oval Office at the time of the price swings. The lowest retail price for gasoline in the last 25 years was when Obama was in office (in 2009). The price of gasoline rose every year Trump was in office until the pandemic hit.

If you want to know the reasons for those low prices google the following and report back:

“Oil price crash 2008”

“Oil price crash 2014”

“Oil price crash 2020”

Let me know how many times energy policy shows up as the reason for those events. Yes, policy matters and depending on what it is can have an effect. But just like (*spoiler alert* if you haven’t googled what I told you to google) policy wasn’t the reason for those price crashes listed above, it’s also not the reason for the current spike in prices.

Multiple news agencies reported that us average gas prices hit a record high yesterday . Gas price have definitely been “trending” higher since April of 2020 with a few dips here and there. That March-April dip ended April 18 and prices have been going up since then to reach yesterdays record high.

And as per usual, Shawn, your posts are 90% unintelligible and the 10% that is left makes no sense or has no relevance to the conversation.

Multiple news agencies reported that us average gas prices hit a record high yesterday

I said March to April. I didn’t say April to May. It was to put out the fallacy of speaking in absolutes like saying it the price keeps going up when, no, it doesn’t. It fluctuates. The trend overall has been upwards since they crashed during the pandemic. Give it enough time and I bet the longer term trend will move the opposite direction.

Biden changed the guidelines that his environmental agency NEPA uses to approve fossil fuel projects; pipelines, refiners, etc. The new rules essentially make ANYTHING fossil fuel a No Go. That one change in policy killed the industry driving up prices.

Biden keeps saying, “I released all of these new oil leases….” But then his fed agencies stonewall development along with initiated much higher royalties to the gov. Then factor in the bulk of our oil production in the US is not well funded big multi natl oil companies but small guys. Bidens POLICY statement that they will be all EV by 2035 makes it difficult for these smaller companies to get financing.

Would you spend millions now for a house that you have to give away in 12 years?

Biden continues to try and fool the avg Democrat voter into thinking its everyone elses fault. The scary thing is that they are intentionally driving up these fossil fuel prices…..To make their horrible California based energy policy look good. Power companies across the US recently came out saying they cannot keep up with power needs.

Business needs a reliable power supply- and Biden is steering us down a road where thats not going to be the case. The Democrats are literally tanking the US for their Globalist vision.

Lets hope the avg American sees through this terrible policy in the next election.

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Sure regulations can add costs, but it’s a matter of how much and when. The people that think these regulations are having a meaningful impact on the current supply and demand of oil, which is all that matters when it comes to current prices, clearly don’t understand what Biden’s EOs have (and haven’t) done and don’t understand the way the oil industry works.

You can also think Biden and his policies suck (they do, for like the tenth time) and also realize they don’t matter much when it comes to the current situation we find ourselves in (supply, demand, prices, etc).

As someone who writes NEPA docs for energy projects this statement is 100% false. Biden reversed a Trump policy and added climate change as cumulative resource analysis back into the process (which is one of many factors analyzed during the NEPA process). A projects effects on climate change weighs no more heavily on a NEPA decision than public need for energy or the many other factors on the record of decision.

See the attached link for some NEPA documents and decision/approval in 2022. So no, Biden did not "NO GO" all energy projects through NEPA.

By the way, NEPA is not an agency but a law. All federal agencies or any private projects with a federal nexus (needs a federal permit, on public land, or is federally funded) must complete the NEPA process unless it is categorically excluded.

What I can blame them for is not trying to fix it. They don't want to fix it. There is plenty the executive branch and congress can do to encourage supply increases and reduce the impact of unfriendly countries on supply and pricing.

What investor would be excited about exploring and new extraction infrastructure when your government is exclaiming they want you gone?

We need to encourage production. We can go green on a parallel path and let it gain presence based on merit. In the mean time, we need to have a strong and healthy country and economy along with the freedom and security to innovate and take risks. Third world countries aren't where advances in alternative energy come from.

That’s a fairer challenge, Glunt. There are things that could be done, but I don’t see much having an effect in the short term. He can open up leasing and decrease the royalty rate, but it won’t have much of an immediate effect on supply. The same way Trump’s policies were great for coal, but ultimately didn’t do much to change the industry - the same can be said for actions taken on oil and gas by the Biden administration.

In short, you can’t force companies to spend money - oil companies have been burned too often as of late (see 2008, 2014, 2020) and no one is keen to ramp up and get burned again.

What do you think Biden can do about this, Glunt?

Yes, but they sure don’t mind making it off us! Lol

Shorter term: Not really "short" because it's not a faucet but the sooner we start the better. Meet with Industy leaders and get a list of "wants" that would prompt Operation Oil Warp Speed. I won't claim to be an expert but take away obstacles and add incentives. Green Light projects like pipelines and natural gas export facilities waiting approval. It won't drop prices next month but when you are in a hole, stop digging first, then start climbing out.

At least act like they want affordable energy. Which is hard because they dont. I don't expect this Admin to do the right thing. People in power rarely act against their self interest. High fuel prices fall into the "plus" column for them. Instead of the "problem" category except for how it effects them at the polls.

Show me the 200Bln they're supposedly spending on their business!

Regarding Operation Oil Warp Speed, I don’t think anything is really going to push the industry to deliver more in the short term. We’re more worried about longer term industry security and making sure we’re free to operate through the transition. To that end, yes, continue leasing rounds, green lighting projects, etc all deliver that - but this is for longer term industry security (think 5, 10, 15, 25 years from now).

There’s been a big shift in the industry in terms of our approach to growth, and you’re seeing continued capital discipline. I think it persists for a long time, and there isn’t really much that can be done to change that.

See above. It’s all right there in their financial statements. So again, Ike…what’s a “fair profit” since apparently we’re making too much money?

Maybe you can explain this new ruling then taken right off of your website at link and explain why so few of these pipelines are approved under Biden?

from the FERC ruling PL21-3-000; UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. PL21-3-000] Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Natural Gas Infrastructure Project Reviews(Issued February 18, 2022)AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.ACTION: Interim policy statement. SUMMARY: This interim policy statement describes Commission procedures for evaluating climate impacts under NEPA and describes how the Commission will integrate climate considerations into its public interest determinations under the NGA. ....Commission staff’s NEPA documents have included direct GHG emission estimates from project construction (e.g., tailpipe emissions from construction equipment) and/or operation (e.g., fuel combustion at compressor stations and gas venting and leaks).22 Starting in late 2016, the Commission began to conservatively estimate indirect downstream GHG emissions by assuming full combustion of the maximum annual volume of gas that could be transported by the project.23 For indirect upstream, production-related GHG emissions, Commission orders during that time period relied on Department of Energy studies to calculate broad estimates.24 For upstream impacts, the Commission generally indicated that these analyses were not required by NEPA because the Commission lacked detailed.......

Sounds^ exactly as I described.

Questions for you; How long on avg does it take from start to finish to get one of these pipelines approved?

How many pipelines have been approved since Biden was elected? And how many denied?

No I do not work for FERC.

You could end all this by simply admitting that.