Attached is the caribou I shot. Rifle FIY sorry. This is definitely a doable bowhunt. The caribou I almost got was, literally, twice as big. He was unbelievable. The caribou are NOT migratory. You need to hire a flight service shortly after the draw comes out. Assume around $2k. There are very few tags and most go to residents who do not fly in. It is very likely you will have no competition. Trophy potential is outstanding and I bet 4 out of 5 trophy bulls die of old age not hunters.
The fact that these caribou are not migratory is huge. The limit is 1 caribou. What REALLY intrigued me is during my hunt I saw 3 guys hike down to the river bottom for their flight out - from the same place I was dropped off. I had a 250 pound total weight limit. I weigh 175. Very minimal gear for 10 days. These 3 hoped into ONE plane and left. I spent the next 5 days cold and wet with bare essentials dreaming of the camp I could have had! I hired golden Eagle with a steller rep - they did great. However you pay for it. It is common knowledge where the bou are and several places to get dropped off so you could hire any flight service and have a great hunt. Unlike moose there is no competition, and there are plenty of bou to go around.
If you and a partner drew likely you could do the hunt with considerably more gear then me and cheaper the what I paid.
This is a very reasonable caribou hunt with great trophy potential and no chance of missing a migration.
You fly into Fairbanks then into the field. This is much easier then smaller cities in AK. Fairbanks has everything you need, supplies (isobutane), butchers, taxidermist, uber etc. Logistically this makes things a lot easier and a lot cheaper vs flying into someplace smaller.
If anyone is really serious please send me a PM. I will share details with you.
Nick Muche's Link
While a good tag, there are far better places to hunt caribou without drawing than this one. Lol
Nick what the heck is wrong I am trying to help people out and share info if I have offended you in some way please let me know so I can apologize.
I checked last draw odds. 2.1% per app, you are allowed 6 apps (not 3, my mistake) so if you make all 6 choices this hunt your odds are 12.6%.
I pushed myself hard on this hunt and took off after a bout that was over 2 miles from my glassing spot, 3 miles from camp. I also took my caribou a little ways from camp. I always hunt hard and give 110%.
If it’s a big deal, maybe just politely (or privately) point it out. No need to be an ass.
So Nick just in case I missed something you came here to:
1. Attack my draw odds saying I was wrong and they were 2% - when in reality they were over 12%. I knew they were over 10% but wanted everyone to have realistic goals and in case they cut tags. I would rather someone think they have 8% odds and be happy to find out they have 12%.
2. Point out there are far better hunts without offering any help or ideas? You live in AK and, despite your math impairment, claim to have much better options. Lets here about a caribou hunt, with no issues missing the migration, airfare for well under $1k per person including getting your animal out of the field, and trophy caribou with 0 competition from other hunters? I am just a moron from Ohio and you live there so let's here you suggestions.
Not sure what your rambling about my moose notes was? Maybe you remember my AK moose from 2020? I am glad you remember me and are tracking my moves, I have no idea who you are.
Here is the big one, hard to see but he was HUGE. He literally had to turn his head sideways and lay his antlers parallel to the ground to eat out of the side of his mouth.
Anyway thanks for all the PM's telling me to ignore Nick. I came here to try to help others not sure how this turned into what it did or what I did wrong. The transporters take almost no caribou hunters and having a NR draw will dramatically increase their chances of getting a customer. Most tags are drawn by residents who do not want to hire a transporter.
If anyone else would like info please PM me, or Nick since he seems to have much better ideas:)
You did nothing wrong, some people just gotta be........... Well you know! Thanks for sharing!!
All caribou move and not all of the herds move the same amount. Most caribou herds are quite predictable in Aug/Sep, especially the smaller herds such as this one.
If you can do this hunt like you said, for $1,000 to include all the travel you laid out, I’ll eat my shorts. Never mind two people.
Dons hardest hunt ever, with a rifle, is now a great option for Bowhunters.
I’d also like to say thanks for all the PMs I’ve received about Donny, they were quite funny. Sorry Don, I won’t be discussing other caribou options on here anymore, I’d guess the latest closures in NW Alaska have quite a bit to do with the overwhelming amount of info on the web already.
Nick if your issue was that, or pilot stuff why was your first post here saying I was wrong about draw odds (when in fact you were the one significantly wrong)? It seems like that set you off and you attacked me, switching what your problem was as post went on? That does not make any sense.
I came here and presented my take on this hunt from my 2 experiences and from around 12 other hunters who did this hunt, 2 were bowhunters and both were successful on nice bulls DIY. This bowhunt was not difficult for all the archers I know.
If ANYONE here has ever seen me divulge something I should not have feel free to point it out. If I did it was an accident and I am fairly sure I have never ever shared anything anyone has told me that was secret.
If I was doing that then Nick would be fine to take a shot at me and if that was his issue why was his first post a flat out lie saying my draw odds data was incorrect? No mention of anything else, then after I defended myself - and pointed out he was wrong - he went crazy.
Again it is common knowledge where the caribou are - and it is a big area with lots of places to land and hunt - places that probably average 1 bou hunter a year or less. It is no secret and not stepping on anyone's toes IMO.
If someone has a different opinion that is fine. Approaching it like he did is not fine. Note how I pointed out his 2% draw odds thread.
I’m sorry some of you don’t realize just how stupid this has become, and offering advice based on the pretense of “I’ll never hunt there again” is, in my opinion, bullshit.
And Don, I'm not taking sides on this, but I'm not certain that's how the math works. It's been a long time since I've taken statistics and I want to say first, that I could definitely be wrong on this, but I don't think 2%, six times = 12%. It's 2% six times. If I remember right, there's a law of diminishing returns in this math.
Also, did you ask Juneau if the published data is total apps too? As far as I know, it could be individual people, irrespective if they put in 1, 2, or 6 times. I don't recall many of these harder-to-draw application's draw odds changing when they changed the system from 1 app choice per unit to six however you wanted to divvy them up and I don't know about others, but when they changed the system, I know I went from doing different units to putting all my choices into one unit.
These would be good questions to ask someone in Juneau who actually works with the system. I have a sneaky suspicion that the published odds are off because G&F departments are known for doing bad math; ie: Nevada's (or is it Utah?) stats saying you had a "1 in XXX" odds of drawing, although that was only in the specific point pool of the person who actually drew, which is ridiculous as it discounts all the other point pools that didn't have a person who pulled a tag. Or how about the Idaho and Montana draws having a NR cap and then Idaho's site took or odds sites posting NR draw odds that are non-factual based on the fact that you have 50% NRs in the pool and only 10% of NRs can pull a tag? Again, these odds are so often not what they're made out to be.
This could all be bad speculation, but I think until someone talks with someone in Juneau that actually works with/designed the system or the reporting of the numbers, that a lot of these odds discussions are just speculation.
Draw odds listed on the last page of the app booklet are total apps divided by tags. When I applied I put all 6 choices, so when you look at the published draw odds that number of apps counts 6 for me. If someone picked that choice 3x it showed 3 for them. Divide that by the number of tags and you get your odds per app. Multiply by your apps an you get a VERY close estimate of your true odds. Within 1% I would guess. That does not mean my math is 11.1% instead of 12.1%. That means my estimate of 12.1% might be 12% or 12.2%.
I have a Civil Engineering degree so I have a good grasp of math and odds.
I am also still confused at what the issue with me is? Draw odds? Screwing outfitters/transporters? My trophy pics? If that does not pan out something else? I do not post a lot of pics here. I do 3-4 big game hunts a year. When I do it is mostly because I have personally met dozens of guys from here and may like to see how I did. No trophy pics in my profile, there have not been for decades. No pics of my last bull elk. I do not think posted pics of my 10' gator. Heck I do not think I have posted pics of any of my last 6 or 7 elk.
If the odds per app are 2.1% to draw and you have a total of 6 apps, you have a 2.1% chance to draw each app. If you have 6 apps and a buddy has 3, you have 3 additional chances to draw each offering a 2.1% chance to draw. Nothing close to 12%.
In the above scenario my odds are actually 51% assuming I’m the only person allowed to put in more than once. You have to take the odds of NOT drawing multiplied out by the number of tags being drawn to find your true odds and even that would be false math because as apps are pulled some will inherently change odds variably as they may have any number of apps removed once they are successful.
NO ONE can compute true odds on Alaska Draw without specific application data for applicants which isn’t publicly available. Also how the draw works in order of hunt numbers drawn can also change odds. Which hunts are pulled first? If I apply for 4 different areas using my 6 chances and I draw on one that wasn’t my first choice it eliminates me from contention on my app for the other areas because I can’t hold two draw tags for the same species.
However draw odds and they way they draw has not changed. It is a fair assumption that applicants will choose ROUGHLY the same number of chances each year. When AK increased you choices and let you pick 6 choices yes that dramatically had an affect. But that affect is over. You can see that in the numbers each year since they did that. Little changed.
Numbers listed at the back of the draw supplement show total choices. If 100 guys applied for that hunt 3x each it would say 300.
Let's use some very basic math. 7000 choices for 150 tags. We do not know how many different applicants there were. Wild guess based on how many applied before they gave you 6 choices was around 2,300. It does not matter.
I never applied but apply next year and all other apps/choices remain the same.
Odds before I applied, per choice, are 7082/150 = 1 in 47.2133333
If I apply and other apps/choices remain the same and I:
Only pick that hunt once 7083/150 = 1 in 47.22 x my 1 choice = 1 in 47.22
Pick that hunt 6 times: 7088/150 = 1 in 47.253333 x my 6 choices = 1 in 7.87555 (12.7%)
You guys keep assuming that years after they allow 6 choices there are massive changes in how many choices each person makes. That is simply not true - and the data from the past decade makes that obvious.
Again the odds in the back of the supplement show choices (which is applicants times the number of choices they make). If it only showed applicants it would be impossible to make "accurate" predictions about true draw odds. This is not that case.
Bascially several of you are saying that your draw odds do not go up very very very close to 6 fold wen you pick one choice vs. picking all 6 choices. That would be true if there was only a few apps but given the volume one person picking more choices has a very tiny overall affect on the total number choices.
If you redo my math above but cut the choices from 7000 to 70 you will clearly see the affect many of you are CORRECTLY describing. With 7000 it is miniscule.
Again TEmbry you are correct.
DJ I am not entirely sure exactly what you are trying to say - can you please redo my math your way to explain?
BTW those numbers are straight out of the supplement for 2021/2022
The year before there were 7966 choices and 150 apps so the numbers are very very close. A new applicant applying will have very close to the odds I posted.
You guys have the raw data now and call call G&F to see if what I said is true. Feel free to correct my math. You can also research when they went to 6 choices per app and check that years data and the year before. I did that all along and it makes it very clear, just like G&F told me, that the numbers on the last page of the supplement show total choices, not total applicants.
Also, Nick would give a guy the shirt off his back and plenty of help on Alaska. Just ask and don't be a Richard...oh, and don't post it on the internet. SMH.
A bush flight that was $700 back in the 90’s is now about $2k or more. .
