Stock Market Proponents 2
General Topic
Contributors to this thread:
Will 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
12yards 16-May-24
Orion 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
DanaC 16-May-24
KITT 16-May-24
nchunter 16-May-24
ahunter76 16-May-24
bowhunt 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
bowhunt 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
BC 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
Mint 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
Beendare 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
Dale06 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
Grey Ghost 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
Mike Ukrainetz 16-May-24
Grey Ghost 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
Mike Ukrainetz 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
Mike Ukrainetz 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
nchunter 16-May-24
Mike Ukrainetz 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
bluedog 16-May-24
Beendare 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
bigeasygator 16-May-24
Nyati 16-May-24
Beendare 16-May-24
DanaC 16-May-24
RK 16-May-24
Grey Ghost 17-May-24
DanaC 17-May-24
CaptMike 17-May-24
Hunts_with_stick 17-May-24
bigeasygator 17-May-24
bigeasygator 17-May-24
stealthycat 17-May-24
spike78 17-May-24
bigeasygator 17-May-24
Beendare 17-May-24
spike78 17-May-24
bluedog 25-May-24
bluedog 25-May-24
Matt 25-May-24
Orion 25-May-24
jons 26-May-24
spike78 26-May-24
bluedog 26-May-24
spike78 30-May-24
Beendare 30-May-24
bluedog 30-May-24
CTBobcat 30-May-24
spike78 03-Jun-24
Hunts_with_stick 03-Jun-24
Beendare 03-Jun-24
CTBobcat 04-Jun-24
Beendare 04-Jun-24
CTBobcat 04-Jun-24
bluedog 04-Jun-24
bluedog 05-Jun-24
bluedog 13-Jun-24
bigeasygator 13-Jun-24
bluedog 13-Jun-24
midwest 13-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 13-Jun-24
bluedog 13-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 13-Jun-24
bluedog 13-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 13-Jun-24
bluedog 13-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 13-Jun-24
TreeWalker 13-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 13-Jun-24
RonP 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
bigeasygator 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
bigeasygator 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
Beendare 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
Beendare 14-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
KsRancher 14-Jun-24
Grey Ghost 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
bluedog 14-Jun-24
spike78 14-Jun-24
From: Will
16-May-24
Ask, and thou shall receive. Just starting a new thread on the market so we dont scroll down 650!

Been a good run for me... I'm still young enough at mid life to be playing the long game. But it's been a very good run for my retirement accounts and the kids college funds...

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: 12yards
16-May-24
It's been a good run lately. Getting a little nervous as I'm getting close to retirement. Should pull some more out probably. But I have plenty of cash to get me through 3-4 years of bad.

From: Orion
16-May-24
I think ol roaring kitty is going to take down a few more hedge funds in the coming months

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: DanaC
16-May-24

DanaC's embedded Photo
DanaC's embedded Photo

From: KITT
16-May-24
DanaC, looks like my family is set;)

From: nchunter
16-May-24
Every thing I have read about why the stock market is soaring has to do with 401ks and people investing in the stock market. There is "x" amount of shares out there and people are scrambling for them making them artificially high. There will be a serious day of reckoning when a real correct adjustment is made. These are weird times with China getting in the mix so strongly.

From: ahunter76
16-May-24
I think that is me & my shoes as I DO have a pair like that. Retired 22 years now.

From: bowhunt
16-May-24
my new balance shoes are gray. I guess I’ll be OK!

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
"There is "x" amount of shares out there and people are scrambling for them making them artificially high"

This is literally how investing in stocks work. Hard to argue it's artificial when that is the price the market is willing to pay.

"There will be a serious day of reckoning when a real correct adjustment is made"

What are those "real correct adjustments" that aren't being accounted for?

From: bowhunt
16-May-24
^^^^ exactly what I was thinking when I read his post

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
"^^^^ exactly what I was thinking when I read his post"

Yeah, loosely stock prices are tied to the expected value of the future cash flows of a company, and perceptions about both the company and the broader economy will impact the expectations on those cash flows.

But at the end of the day, it's all supply and demand. As I always like to point out, "What is something worth? Whatever someone is willing to pay for it."

From: BC
16-May-24
Get in, stay in. Doesn’t matter if it’s up or down…stay in.

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: Mint
16-May-24
Nobody has been correct in market predictions all the time so I've always been a long term investor. Thankfully the market is up, partially since earnings have been ok, it is indexed for inflation and also because it is predicting a rate cut. If we enter stagflation, which I don't think will happen the market will have a huge correction. I'm hoping it gets past the summer without something big happening. The credit card debt exploding has me a little worried though.

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: Beendare
16-May-24
A couple general observations; India is rocking...and should continue to do so

The big well known high tech companies have become a safe reliable space.....not as volatile as they were in the past. Makes sense, they are well capitalized and integral to our lives and business worldwide.

The economy is not the same as the stock market- I get the feeling some folks think its synonymous.

From: bluedog
16-May-24

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
"The economy is not the same as the stock market"

It certainly isn't. Just like inflation isn't the economy. Nor is unemployment. Nor is...

From: Dale06
16-May-24
Will, thanks for starting a new discussion on the market. I’m 73 and not at all a smart investor, I’m just an average guy. But I had a boss back in 1984 that said “you must start investing in the stock market.” I did so soon after via my company 401k. And after maxing that 401K, I started investing with one of the bigger investment firms. That allowed me to retire, debt free, with a lot in savings at age 61. You younger guys, if you’re not investing in a balanced portfolio with at least 10% of your earning are really missing an opportunity.

From: Nyati
16-May-24
Yes, it’s foolish not to take full advantage of your company’s 401K programs especially if they match your funds. I started early also and put as much as I could in. I was able to retire early with no debt as well.

There’s going to be ups and downs but if u have years ahead of you don’t worry about it.

The WORST thing to do is panic and sell off when the market tumbles. I had a friend that did that twice and it set him back years if not a decade

From: Grey Ghost
16-May-24
Damn, bluedog, 10.5% in under a week! That's some “nitro” China stock. ;-).

From: bluedog
16-May-24

16-May-24
What amount of government debt is too much? When do the interest payments exceed tax revenues? If it’s not $34.7 trillion in debt, what number is it? $50 trillion? $100? Since the USA is adding $1 trillion of debt every 3 months that seems unsustainable? Currency crisis anyone?

Maybe that’s the biggest answer to, “What are those "real correct adjustments" that aren't being accounted for?”

From: Grey Ghost
16-May-24
Canada’s government, corporate, and household debt as a percentage of GDP is higher than the US. Both are on an unsustainable path, IMO.

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
Doubt it, Mike. Don't see federal debt as (1) much of a secret or (2) meaningfully impactful to the economy until it reaches much higher levels.

200% of GDP is frequently cited as the threshold of sustainability. Most predictions don't have us there for another 20 years. In short, completely meaningless wrt current equity prices, and completely meaningless to future price forecasts.

Not saying government spending isn't out of control. It is. I just don't see it being much of a threat to the economy, valuations, etc for quite some time.

From: Nyati
16-May-24
BEG, is it better to treat a cancer early or wait until the last minute to try and do something with it ?

16-May-24
So 20 years times 4 trillion per year gives another 80 trillion to the 34 trillion equaling 114 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Got it.

The man of facts sets me straight. And a woman can have a beard and a penis. Another bigeasy fact. Got it. Thanks!

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
Treat it early. That said, I don't subscribe to the viewpoint that debt/leverage is cancer. Frankly, if you want to continue the medical analogy, in many ways I'd argue debt prevented a cancer in the economy from growing.

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
"So 20 years times 4 trillion per year gives another 80 trillion to the 34 trillion equaling 114 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Got it."

I said a threshold that is commonly cited is 200% of GDP. It's not a hard fact. What is a fact is our deficits are not $4 trillion per year. Furthermore, you've completely ignored the denominator in the percentage I cited above, Mike. So maybe try again...

16-May-24

Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
Mike Ukrainetz's embedded Photo
I stand corrected, it’s every 100 days to add 1 trillion in debt, not 4 trillion in one year. So let’s do 3.65 times 20 years equals 73 trillion in ADDITIONAL debt, totalling 107 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Did I get it right?

I’m still confused on the woman with a penis thing too? That one is even more baffling to me!

From: Nyati
16-May-24
BEG, so to support your point of view you’re going to pull out the chicken or the egg analogy?

That’s like saying I’m in debt so bad because of my spending habits I’m going to take on more debt so I can spend more.

Maybe a better idea is to cut back on spending habits and quit finding new things to spend money on .

What you’re saying is spend more until it gets even worse then I’ll worry about it.

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
"I stand corrected, it’s every 100 days to add 1 trillion in debt, not 4 trillion in one year. So let’s do 3.65 times 20 years equals 73 trillion in ADDITIONAL debt, totalling 107 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Did I get it right?"

Not really. Just because there were two $1 trillion/100 day spikes doesn't mean that rate will be sustained through the FY. Last year's deficit came in under $2 trillion, as a reference point. And again, you're completely ignoring the denominator. See the chart above which doesn't.

"I’m still confused on the woman with a penis thing too? That one is even more baffling to me!"

Clearly. It's not really a hard concept, Mike. Try googling "difference between gender and sex" and maybe you'll learn something.

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
"BEG, so to support your point of view you’re going to pull out the chicken or the egg analogy? That’s like saying I’m in debt so bad because of my spending habits I’m going to take on more debt so I can spend more."

I never said that. Regardless, "debt so bad" is a subjective thing.

"What you’re saying is spend more until it gets even worse then I’ll worry about it."

No, my point is I'll worry about it when it approaches a level that feels worrisome. While I think that government spending needs curtailment, I don't for a second think our current deficit levels pose a threat to the economy. This country's balance sheet on the whole is still incredibly health, which is probably why we're viewed as a great creditor and have a captive audience of investors (domestically and foreign). US debt is considered one of, if not the, safest assets in the world. Until that changes, I'm not worried.

"Maybe a better idea is to cut back on spending habits and quit finding new things to spend money on ."

Agree. But as I alluded to in the cancer analogy, some of the largest deficits that were run up were as a result of economic shocks that threatened to crater the economy. I certainly prefer a hands off approach, but also fully believe without the government safety net the economic impact of the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic would have been much worse.

From: Nyati
16-May-24
Credit card debt is surging as average American owes $6,218

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/credit-card-debt-is-surging-as-average-american-owes-6218

Meanwhile, the average American is getting further and further in credit card debt just to get by and eat and pay their bills

From: Nyati
16-May-24
Credit card debt is surging as average American owes $6,218

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/credit-card-debt-is-surging-as-average-american-owes-6218

Meanwhile, the average American is getting further and further in credit card debt just to get by and eat and pay their bills

From: nchunter
16-May-24
I'm obviously not a pro on economics. The corrections I was talking about were such things as "covid scare, Russian aggression and such events as the 2008 crash. Just writing things as I understand them.

16-May-24
Ok, bigeasy, first your chart isn’t showing up on my feed. It just shows a question mark.

But we have 2 trillion a year minimum additional debt and 4 trillion a year as an upper end “spike”, love the new term by the way, gives a 3 trillion average extra? Can we go with that?

So 3 trillion a year for 10 years makes the debt 64 trillion, that’s no problem, and 94 trillion after 20 years is where we MAY get into some trouble? Even though we have about 1 trillion right now in interest payments, on 34 trillion debt. Interest payments now equal defence spending, no problem. Almost 3 times that amount in 20 years is only possibly an issue? Did I get it now?

And on the gender/sex thing if my father who had a beard and a wiener, came out to our family and said, “you now need to call me she/her, I’m a woman, just like your mom”, we should have gone along with that, not referred him to a therapist for some serious mental health problems?! And would my parents have then been in a lesbian relationship? This really is even more confusing than this whole debt thing?!!

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
“So 3 trillion a year for 10 years makes the debt 64 trillion, that’s no problem, and 94 trillion after 20 years is where we MAY get into some trouble? Even though we have about 1 trillion right now in interest payments, on 34 trillion debt. Interest payments now equal defence spending, no problem. Almost 3 times that amount in 20 years is only possibly an issue? Did I get it now?”

You tell me, Mike. People have been worrying about national debt for as long as I can remember. National debt is 5x what it 20 years ago. Doesn’t seem like in sunk the economy or held back the stock market to me. Does it to you?

From: bluedog
16-May-24
I was hopeful this would be a thread with people discussing investing and trading. Of course it took it's own course in short order.

No sweat, not my show, you guys carry on. I serve no purpose here quite clearly

From: Beendare
16-May-24
Blue, Do you think this China run is sustainable?

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
“The corrections I was talking about were such things as "covid scare, Russian aggression and such events as the 2008 crash. Just writing things as I understand them.”

All good, nchunter. The way you wrote your post made it sound like there was a belief that assets were mis-priced and weren’t accounting for some sort of information. All of the things you mentioned were shocks that were certainly incorporated into the market. There will no doubt be other be future corrections, some predictable some less so. I got the sense that whoever your source is was saying there’s a predictable bubble happening.

From: Nyati
16-May-24
They’re’s some economists that think we’re in a bubble now. Prices too high considering current economic conditions. Myself, IDK, but we’ve been thru them before and everything seemed ok until it wasn’t. I did cash out early in 1999 before the .com bust and went on an African Safari on basically free money

From: bigeasygator
16-May-24
“They’re’s some economists that think we’re in a bubble now”

There are always people who think we are in a bubble.

From: Nyati
16-May-24
That’s why I said it

From: Beendare
16-May-24
Trying to be on my best behavior on this thread- grin

The WSJ today points out the underperformance of the DOW index vs others including the S&P. The dow underperformed the S&P by 27% in the last 4 1/2 years- significant. I would stay away from funds focusing on the DOW.

If I was a young guy now, I would look hard at the performance of the tech ETF’s from Vanguard and Fidelity. A no brainer to DCA into those LT.

I don’t like past performance as a criteria to invest in many areas, but tech is different and it will outperform for decades to come.

From: DanaC
16-May-24
Those who forget the past are doomed to relive it. I remember the last tech bust well enough. Guys heavy into it lost a huge chunk of their retirement funds. Meanwhile boring-as-corn-flakes balanced portfolios kept the rest of us from disaster.

From: RK
16-May-24
So true DanaC so true

Watched all that happen in spades

From: Grey Ghost
17-May-24
The .com bubble was a different animal. Investors were pumping money into anything internet related, regardless of the viability of the company. Now it’s different. Technology is deeply ingrained in our society. Clear winners have established track records. I agree with Bruce, tech should be a strong investment for the foreseeable future, but I wouldn’t put all your eggs in just that basket.

From: DanaC
17-May-24
GG, I don't mean to say that you should have _nothing_ in that sector, but it should be *part of* a balanced portfolio.

My advice to a young person who has little interest (or expertise) in the subject would be to put money every week or month into a "target date fund." (TDF) Set up automatic transfers from your checking account to a brokerage like Fidelity, etc. and just forget it.

TDF's are adjusted for decreasing risk/asset protection as you get closer to your retirement date. If you plan to retire in 2060 or thereabouts, your portfolio would be managed rather aggressive. Over the years, it would be progressively less so.

Some years ago I had multiple funds with one firm and switched them all to a 2020 fund based on my expected retirement date. I still make modest gains in it, but overall it is less volatile than the market at large.

From: CaptMike
17-May-24
“Google gender”. Always looking for alternatives to doing your own thinking??

17-May-24
I sold a few things yesterday. All time high. IDK, would like to see another dip to invest in.

From: bigeasygator
17-May-24

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
Here’s the bulk of my portfolio. As Dana and others have mentioned, I prefer a diversified portfolio with exposure to lots of different sectors. I’ve minimized my exposure to energy as my job is tied to that industry, and I’ve increased my tech exposure as a bit of a hedge to my job.

I have roughly equal weight positions across the various funds except the debt index (only about 1% of my money is there). The BrokerageLink account details are broken out separately (that’s an account that lets me buy individual stocks as part of my 401k and where I’ve taken my tech exposure).

From: bigeasygator
17-May-24

From: stealthycat
17-May-24
every decade or so there is a collapse

record highs rarely stay record

From: spike78
17-May-24
Yup and that’s why this market is rediculous what BEG is holding are the only stocks being bought. It’s almost like the finance companies like Blackrock are funding the titans. Nice bag BEG cudos.

From: bigeasygator
17-May-24
I wouldn't say they're the only stocks being bought. Pretty much every sector - not just tech - is giving returns. And again, I have my reasons for buying them. They make up about 10% of my portfolio, with those index funds making up the rest. I just wanted more exposure as the electrification and digitalization of the world is a bit of hedge to the hydrocarbon business I rely on for my salary. Nvidia I bought in late 2021 (even before the Pelosis!) due to the massive chip shortage, the growing demand, and the future prospects of AI. I tend to buy and hold and don't trade at all on technicals - just fundamentals and what I feel like our macro trends in sectors.

All that said, you can see my overall performance is basically about what the S&P 500 would have returned since I started investing in this portfolio in 2002 (not surprising given the diversification of my portfolio). But I'd certainly be happy with 8-9% return over the next 20 years as well.

From: Beendare
17-May-24
If I was a young guy, I would stay away from those target dated funds, namely, because of their bond exposure. Take a look at what bond funds have done in the last 5 to 10 years- not good. The claim is for “ Diversification” ….but Why would someone want a negative return? If your advisor had you in any bond funds the last 5 years, the next words out of your mouth should be, “Your Fired-duh”

I think its important to understand risk. If you are young with a long time frame…the time frame itself spreads your risk. Thus, being more concentrated in a tech ETF like Vanguards VGT has you in hundreds of top tech companies selected by the experts ( and they are always adjusting these) . Its 10 yr performance is just shy of 20% per year- not too shabby.

ETF’s are big baskets of stocks…and then having one in the right sector moving forward is key. The only risk is if you have a short time frame. An ETF is better than a mutual fund as you don’t pay taxes on your gains every year like in the MF’s. (Unless the Democrats get their way and start taxing uncaptured gains)

Tech sector; the only guarantee in this world is that Software, chips and tech will be even more a part of our lives moving forward- that actually lessens risk if you have a long timeframe.

Bondfunds are not the same as bonds themselves. Plus, they are highly tied to government policy and the Fed Reserve- gag me with a spoon.

Sure there are times for bonds or bond backed money funds- I have money in a Schwab treasury based ST money market right now- SNSXX paying about 5% I can pop in and out of in one day.

From: spike78
17-May-24
Good deal on the 2021 Nvidia BEG honestly I was too busy with crypto and only had a couple stocks at that time and missed out on a few good ones. While the top S&P 500 stocks are good I always went alittle riskier for bigger returns. I sold SoundHound for a 150% profit but am kicking myself for not selling it earlier I didn’t think it was going to drop that much so quick.

From: bluedog
25-May-24
Tuesday May 28 is of special interest for retail traders. Settlement date goes to 1 day only. No implications for investors (buy and holders) .... major new advantage for retail traders. I look forward to it.

From: bluedog
25-May-24
"Blue, Do you think this China run is sustainable?"

Bruce.....No clue really, as you know I'm a mometum trader. I've dabbled in China twice in last couple months, checking my records. Got minor gains, +5% and +8% before getting stopped out. Neither held even 10 days. I keep an eye on it but too much good US stuff right now IMO. China may take off at some point, right now pretty much chop is all for my system.

From: Matt
25-May-24
My money is largely invested in U.S. companies right now. China’s economy has some glaring fundamental issues and the central government can only prop up its domestic industry so much. With increasing US tariffs likely to impact revenues in key sectors, China is not a place I would be investing in at present.

From: Orion
25-May-24
GameStop still going guessing some hedge funds will fold again just like in 2021

From: jons
26-May-24
4OK take in the inflation -7K the real number would be around 33K, thank you Joe for transforming America and the voters that support this non-since.

From: spike78
26-May-24
Yeah wait and see what happens if Biden’s capital gains tax happens.

From: bluedog
26-May-24
Worrying about what might happen is pointless.

From: spike78
30-May-24

spike78's Link
And here is what a joke this market is. By joke I mean they give the illusion that everything is fine with the economy. You can’t read this article without a subscription but the title says it all.

From: Beendare
30-May-24
I think everyone knows- the stock market is not the economy.

NVDA is business 101, find a need and fill it. Do you really think they will still have 80% market share of the high end chips in another 5 years?

There is investing...then there is earning money. The short term guys are earning a living- not investing.

The question I always try to ask is where will we be in the future. One thing that has proven to be a winner and I think will be in the future; Tech. It's becoming more and more a part of our lives. A good tech ETF like VGT holding hundreds of tech companies is going to do well over a long time frame.

Risk is another question, but tech has become more insulated to the wild swings- more of a bellwether.....and if you have a long time frame- that mitigates the risk of a market investments including tech.

From: bluedog
30-May-24
IMO the stock market and the economy are related to a degree, perhaps the market is 6 months ahead of economy? Somewhat? But you can't use one to analyze the other... they are not the same.

And the stock market is totally uncaring.... it doesn't care if you win or if you lose.

From: CTBobcat
30-May-24
I'm not greedy, if someone offered me guaranteed 12% annual return for next 20 years, i'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

From: spike78
03-Jun-24

spike78's Link
Yup all is well in the economy with low unemployment for ole Joes election. Too bad college graduates don’t seem to think so. Plenty of internships out there though.

03-Jun-24
I bought some more shares of some stock like Emerson and ISO and Meta last week when the down was down.

CTbobcat - I'd take 10%, but 12% would be better!

From: Beendare
03-Jun-24
CT comment, “if someone offered me guaranteed 12% annual return for next 20 years, i'd take that deal in a heartbeat.“

And if you think you are going to get a Guaranteed return of 12% in a 5% market….I’m sure there is some swampland in Florida with your name on it.

IME, I’ve seen a few of those “ guaranteed return “ deals go belly up over my decades of investing. The guarantee is only as good as the 1) overall market returns, and 2) the outfit selling it.

Realize that outfits selling those Annuity type investments get a huge commission up front….that alone kills your potential return and they typically lock you in so they can recover the commission.

Then consider; what are they investing in that they can guarantee you a higher return than the general market over the long haul plus make a profit?

The answer of course is something risky.

I wouldn’t even consider an annuity unless it was from a solid low commission outfit like Vanguard…but you won’t get anything close to a guaranteed 12%.

Your risk in the market is lowered drastically if you have a long term timeline and are spread out in something like 3-6 different ETFs. Then just dollar cost avg into them over the years.

From: CTBobcat
04-Jun-24
BeenDare - I wasn't saying anyone would actually offer it. I'm saying if it was offered theoretically I would take it. That's all. I don't pay any commissions, I do my own investing and never stop buying.

From: Beendare
04-Jun-24
Ok gotcha.

I did have a guy from bowsite last year tell me he was offered a deal like the one you mentioned…and insinuating I should jump on board.

Ha, I told him its a suckers bet…hopefully he took my advice to stay away.

From: CTBobcat
04-Jun-24
haha yea definitely.

From: bluedog
04-Jun-24
JMO.... if I decided to become long term investor I'd simply buy SPY and QQQ and let it run. (I would likely buy and sell off the 200 day sma though) Meanwhile long as I'm performing better than them I'll continue trading, which I enjoy.

05-Jun-24
“if someone offered me guaranteed 12% annual return for next 20 years, i'd take that deal in a heartbeat.“

if someone offered me a guaranteed net 8-9% over the next 20 years id be more than happy.

From: bluedog
05-Jun-24
Off memory... pretty sure QQQ has average annual return over 14% for last 20 years . And SPY is close to +10%. I trade but as I've said if I switched to long term buy and hold I'd blend these two and call it good.. QQQ has more volatility than SPY but better average return.

(do your own homework)

From: bluedog
13-Jun-24
Did anybody "Sell in May and go away"? Been told that's what you should do, what the smart money does... dunno

From: bigeasygator
13-Jun-24
I did not. Probably missed the window I guess?

From: bluedog
13-Jun-24
Hmm I did not either.. just curious what others were doing and how it was working out I guess.

From: midwest
13-Jun-24
I guess I missed the memo.

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jun-24
I rode it out as well, despite what the talking heads said. It was brutal. ;-).

From: bluedog
13-Jun-24
No guts no glory I've heard said..

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jun-24
bluedog, I know a 75 year old guy who has a legit over 100% gain on his entire portfolio just this year!! He's just an average Joe with an above average desire to master his trading hobby. His system is beautifully simple, anyone can do it, if they put their mind to it. But it's not for the faint of heart. I can put you in touch with him, if you wish. He loves sharing his knowledge.

From: bluedog
13-Jun-24
Thanks GG... I'll pass though. At 77 I'm kinda risk averse I reckon. Wouldn't go sharing wild ideas like that with too many people. Sure it takes discipline most lack... really doubt "anyone can do it".. expect your friend would agree.

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jun-24
Perhaps you’re right, dawg. Just thought I’d throw it out there, if you were interested.

From: bluedog
13-Jun-24
No problem... he's doing a helluva job though. Wonder if he's got staying power? Let me know in awhile.. wonder how he did last year? Just idly curious.

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jun-24
I think he was up 50-something percent last year, but he was still perfecting his system. He seems to have it dialed in now, but he always strives to do better.

From: TreeWalker
13-Jun-24
Grey Ghost - Some claim they have systems and go to Vegas. A few do really well. They are more than willing to share how awesome their system worked over what is usually a short window. As time goes by, fewer and fewer remain ahead when counting from Day 1.

If you bump into a guy with a big wad of winnings in his pocket then you can assume he is on to something other than if 1000 people flip a coin 10 times that a few will get 10 heads in a row. Have those who flipped the coin with 10 consecutive heads do 10 more flips and likely zero will have achieved wheat would then be 20 heads in a row.

Is the guy you know very skilled or merely his hunches resulted in several heads out of 10? I have my hunch after investing for over 50 years in stocks and tracking my results. My best years were often offset by years which lagged the overall market. I am mostly in the "buy the whole U.S. market" with a sliver of bond holdings.

I traded heavily from February 2020 when the stock market pulled back until I headed into the wilderness for a few weeks in early October 2020 so stayed 100% invested while off the grid. I was not playing hunches about companies. I sold 100% of stocks and bonds by the third week of February. Bought back three weeks later then sold 100% a week later then repeated looking to sell if market went up 7% then waiting until feel no less than 5% from when I sold.

I was playing the over-reaction of non-sophisticated holders of workplace 401Ks that would see headlines about market pullbacks or when they opened their quarterly 401K recap. I did very well. The markets often moved more than 1% more than one day per week. That is highly unusual. I think the longest I stayed 100% in the market or out of the market was never more than 7 weeks and sometimes was a matter of days.

I did not kid myself though that I suddenly was clairvoyant. I just knew when the dry cleaner suddenly was talking about "the market" and maybe should sell it all...that this was irrational behavior spreading like wildfire.

I also was sitting on 6 years of college funding all in cash for my children when 9/11 happened. Similar panic overheard at the grocery store and in the office re pulling out of the market once Wall Street re-opened for business. I bought index funds with 100% of the cash I had when the market hit 10% off the pre-9/11 close. Held about 2 months and sold which was painful as was all short-term gain and we had significant marginal tax rates Fed+State.

I gambled twice in my lifetime, 9/11 and "Chinese Flu emergence" but am a boring buy and hold guy. I did not gamble with options as was not greedy and I only bought items I was willing to hold for years if the market crashed further when I was 100% invested.

From: Grey Ghost
13-Jun-24
Thanks for your insight, treewalker. The guy I know doesn’t trade options. Just normal stocks and ETFs. He’s just figured out how to trade the right ones, at the right times.

From: RonP
14-Jun-24
:), the interweb doesn't disappoint.

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
GG the only “right” stocks to trade are the mag 7 everything else is doing crap. Most rediculous market I’ve ever seen. Every time I watch an analyst speaking they all talk about the same companies and that’s it. Probably the biggest Ponzi scheme going at the moment with 9 companies holding like 35% of the entire S&P.

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Spike Why should I watch an "analyst speaking"? And why aren't you trading the stocks that are going up?

From: bigeasygator
14-Jun-24
And why does it matter that the largest companies in the country make up a large percentage of the index? How is a market cap weighted index built to mirror the broader US equity market a “Ponzi scheme”?

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
GG the only “right” stocks to trade are the mag 7 everything else is doing crap. Most rediculous market I’ve ever seen. Every time I watch an analyst speaking they all talk about the same companies and that’s it. Probably the biggest Ponzi scheme going at the moment with 9 companies holding like 35% of the entire S&P.

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
Bluedog I try and trade stocks that have good room for upside and I’m not paying hundreds of dollars for just one share of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, etc. Amazing the markets keep going up but yet most other companies keep going down despite already being down 60-80% from the high in 2021. If it weren’t for the mag 7 it would look like the damn markets were all crashing. I do know one thing when the shit hits the fan it’s gonna fall like a deck of cards. All the Nvidia holders better pray China doesn’t invade Taiwan. If so then that’s when I’m buying and not when it’s up 600 thousand percent. I don’t take risks for a couple hundred bucks.

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
I don't look at cost of share myself...I look at % gain . I also won't buy a stock under $5, seldom a stock under $10. Just what I do

From: bigeasygator
14-Jun-24
“but yet most other companies keep going down despite already being down 60-80% from the high in 2021”

You keep saying this but it’s demonstrably false, spike. Either you know better and are flat out lying or you refuse to actually look into the data - neither of which is a good look.

“If it weren’t for the mag 7 it would look like the damn markets were all crashing”

No, it wouldn’t.

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Risk is buying a stock or etf that is not going up. If I've ever done that it's been so long I can't remember. JMO

From: Beendare
14-Jun-24
Its worth considering the tax implications of stock trading….

Depending on your tax bracket, a short term $10,000 gain is really a lot less.

Long term -over one year hold- tax rate is less and then you add on state tax. Cap Gain tax is 15% on income from appx. $44k to $518k, then 20% over that with a 3.8% kicker on higher income.

Plus a short term sale is added directly to your income and this could put you in a higher tax bracket.

If I had a do over or was a young guy now, I would probably just Dollar Cost avg into ETFs with a high % in tech, then those investments are compounding faster as they are tax deferred.

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Bruce makes a good point. My situation is about 35% in a regular cash account (short term gain taxes), 35% in traditional IRA (tax deferred but RMD hit) and 30% in wife's ROTH (pure heaven) oh to do it over again and have converted my IRA to ROTH when it was feasible.. dang it

From: Grey Ghost
14-Jun-24
I trade with a fairly small percentage of our savings in a taxable account, the rest is in tax-deferred and diversified "hold and hope" IRAs overweight with tech.

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
Whole market taking a dump but Nvidia rocks on gotta love it.

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Nasdaq down -0.19% at the moment.. that's a dump? ok...

If Nvidia is rocking why don't you buy it?

From: Beendare
14-Jun-24
Hey, I've fallen prey to the trading game. It's exciting and there is a part of me that thinks I am smarter than the markets [news flash; I'm not!]

There are some guys like bluedog that have developed trading systems that work. My guess is he would agree, this is more like a job earning money than investing.

I've done well over the years trading....but if I backtest these trades, overall , I probably would have been better just buying and hanging on longer.

I look at it this way; I want my $$$ in Stocks and Sectors that will perform well- or heck, outperform- over the long haul. The tech ETF's are averaging 17-20% a year for the last 10 years. Is tech becoming more and more of our lives- Yep, and it will for a long time. I think the tech sector will be a lot less volatile than it was 20-30 years ago. Stuff like the Nasdaq index, QTEC or the more concentrated VGT should outperform for decades. _____

I did sell a bunch of stuff in my one account at the end of May to buy another home and I took Roy Scheiders advice in Jaws on needing a bigger boat. grin...though my wife just rolls her eyes. What good is all of that $$ if you cannot spend it?

From: Grey Ghost
14-Jun-24
"Whole market taking a dump but Nvidia rocks on gotta love it."

Market is far from "taking a dump", but I am loving Nvidia. 25% of my trading portfolio is in it, and many of my IRA investments have holdings in them. So yeah, rock on NVDA!!!

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Bruce nailed my situation.

I enjoy trading immensely, it's something a decrepid old fart can do.. at least until brain starts misfiring and that will be quickly obvious.

Clearly it's not for many people. Fact is I've read from reliable accounts that 98% of people that try trading surrender within 3 years. And 80% of these people lose their whole wad.

But.... it's a job and takes work and everything else involved in holding any job. Cannot be done casually.

Add: No way am I smarter than the Market either. It's impartial and doesn't care at all if I win or lose. I'm bad at predicting and don't even attempt it regarding Market ... I have studied market and trading over 20 years.. Read countless books, done countless charts. Sorted wheat from a lot of chaff . done a lot of thinking LOL

I've been full time trading.. this is my 3rd year. Any year I don't handily beat QQQ and SPY is when I quit trading.

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
Bluedog you say you don’t buy stocks under $5 but for shits and giggles check out Nerdy Inc. Just bought some today going to be my future SoundHound play!

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Spike, thanks and good luck. Not my type remotely however.. under $5, tiny market cap, tiny volume (94,322)

I have 6 holdings at the moment , highest price per share is $435, lowest price is $33. All are high volume

From: KsRancher
14-Jun-24
I would love for my Edward Jones 401k thru work to be in the SPY & QQQ. I have tried getting it there but I am not allowed. They have a certain criteria I have to meet. I have to have 20% of my account in international funds. I have yet to find one that isn’t flat out garbage. And I am not allowed anymore than 20% of any one holding. I would tickled with half in SPY and half in QQQ.

From: Grey Ghost
14-Jun-24

Grey Ghost's Link
KsRancher, I don't own any, but I've read India has been a decent international investment for quite some time. Not advice, just throwing it out there....

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
Just bagged some PayPal she’s gonna launch new CEO that will be starting advertising from existing customers, fired lazy people, and also came out with a stable coin. We shall see.

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
Bluedog, the CEO of Nerdy just bought 500,000 shares for almost 1 million dollars. I’m guessing he knows something and for a few hundred bucks why the hell not.

From: bluedog
14-Jun-24
Good luck spike... sincerely, I want everybody to do well.

From: spike78
14-Jun-24
Next on the list SOFI a hell of a company with no love for the stock. She’s flat and ready probably should have bought that over PayPal hmm.

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