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2018 Ut Draw Odds Link
All species/weapon of choice ect…….
Good luck, Robb
Somebody with the same amount of points as me drew my archery bull tag. Not max points either...
That’s happened to me for 21 years now. Or is it 22? ??
Wow! I thought I drew the one max points tag in my unit but see I drew one of the two random tags...... Shocked!
It was indeed a miracle I drew my bull elk tag this year. When I started applying in 2004 the Unit took 6 or 7 points to draw (the max point tag). This year 4 of us had 14 (max) points and luckily I drew. If I didn’t draw this year I don’t think I ever would have. Random tags are the only option these days. I’m stoked to return to Utah but man the odds are getting out of hand.
Looks like point creep was harsh across the board....even for lower quality deer and elk LE hunts. On the bright side, my daughter beat 2% odds in her point group for a late rifle tag.
Best part about Utah and a few other states, you just never know!
Congrats to those who drew!
The LE buck tag I thought I was in the hunt for jumped 4 pts. Ugh
Congrats Charlie can’t wait to see how you do!!
Congratulations on all the lucky ones in the Utah draws!
It is interesting to see at what point level a lot of those tags get drawn. Amazing that some of the very top end tags get pulled by guys in the middle of the pack on the random.
The odds listed are a bit deceiving, though. They are only calculated against the number of applicants at the point level where the tag was drawn. The true odds are really much less for the random tags than stated in these tables as they are odds of drawing against all the remaining applicants after the bonus pass.
That's a good point Treeline. Also, you do get a mathematical advantage for having each additional point. So if you have only a few points, the overall odds at the bottom of the page give you a somewhat reasonable estimate of your pre-draw odds. For those with more points, your odds are marginally better.
I'm at 8 points now, and I'm holding out hope for drawing one mid-tier elk tag in my life in UT.
Even with a totally random draw a guy can go dry for decades - it doesn't promise anything...
Chasing point creep... one year at a time... Ed F
If the price to apply were to go up even a little bit, I would drop Utah like a bad habit.
NM had the bright idea to start charging full up front. It decreased apps for a couple of years until everyone figured they'd just get a specific card just for NM full well knowing they would get 80% to 100% of their fees back. Now, apps are at record highs, because (you know) totally random tag system making it more and more difficult to draw.
"Point creep" without the points...
In my D-Ram unit of choice, of course 1 tag went to the max pool and the other 2 in the Random and both of those in the Random had less points than I did...….
I certainly have been in that group my self in the past but it is a little hard when ya are on this side of the fence!! haha
Things have a way of playing out though, As I have 1 Ram (Rocky) hunter for BARETOP/Sheep Creek, 2 youth hunters/families on the Youth Early Rifle and a Fellow Bowsite Family Mnt Goat hunter that I am working/helping this fall.
Plus my own bow Elk hunts in Wyo & Az.
PS ~~ Very Happy for all that drew and are coming out to our Rockies to hunt this fall.
The truth hurts. 7 points ain't good for nothing.
Even at 14points for elk and moose, the non resident draw odds are simply depressing....