Moultrie Products
WY sheep draw changes?
Wild Sheep
Contributors to this thread:
DonVathome 17-Dec-18
Ron Niziolek 17-Dec-18
TXHunter 17-Dec-18
WapitiBob 17-Dec-18
NvaGvUp 18-Dec-18
Trial153 18-Dec-18
DonVathome 18-Dec-18
DonVathome 18-Dec-18
TreeWalker 19-Dec-18
tjsna 19-Dec-18
Mad Trapper 19-Dec-18
DonVathome 19-Dec-18
NvaGvUp 19-Dec-18
flyingbrass 23-Dec-18
Trial153 23-Dec-18
Dogman 23-Dec-18
Trial153 23-Dec-18
Ambush 23-Dec-18
TXHunter 23-Dec-18
Trial153 23-Dec-18
sticksender 24-Dec-18
Trial153 24-Dec-18
Trial153 24-Dec-18
DonVathome 28-Dec-18
Sandbrew 28-Dec-18
goyt 28-Dec-18
bogey 28-Dec-18
DonVathome 28-Dec-18
Sandbrew 28-Dec-18
TreeWalker 28-Dec-18
Dogman 28-Dec-18
Stryker 28-Dec-18
Stryker 28-Dec-18
Treeline 28-Dec-18
Trial153 28-Dec-18
WapitiBob 28-Dec-18
Dogman 28-Dec-18
Branden 28-Dec-18
Trial153 28-Dec-18
Dogman 28-Dec-18
Trial153 28-Dec-18
Dogman 28-Dec-18
Treeline 28-Dec-18
goyt 28-Dec-18
wildwilderness 28-Dec-18
WapitiBob 29-Dec-18
Zim 29-Dec-18
BULELK1 29-Dec-18
TXHunter 29-Dec-18
sticksender 29-Dec-18
From: DonVathome
17-Dec-18
Anyone have any new intel? I have 19 points and I am getting close to drawing half the units (in the next 2 years or so). Trying to guess if WY will change their draw to keep new guys in and make more money. My biggest fear is cutting preference tags to 50% or worse.

From: Ron Niziolek
17-Dec-18
No new intel I'm aware of. Stay away from unit 1. Dismal results this year.

From: TXHunter
17-Dec-18
One day they will have to change to a bonus point system because those getting in now will never draw unless they draw a random tag.

However, I have not heard any discussion of that taking place in official channels.

That said, I’m a point behind you and I’m going to draw the first chance I get.

From: WapitiBob
17-Dec-18
Quit worrying, go hunt.

From: NvaGvUp
18-Dec-18
Don,

In early 2016 the WY legislture entertained a bill which would have cut non-resident sheep tag numbers in half. I flew to Cheyenne and testified against the bill in a Committee hearing and the bill died in committee. I doubt they'll try doing that again.

That said, you've already got enough points to draw a good tag. So why take a chance on the legislature or the Commission changing the rules?

From: Trial153
18-Dec-18
Draw now if you can. Who knows what the future will hold. I know I am dumping my sheep points in WY, at this point I throwing good money after bad.

From: DonVathome
18-Dec-18
Good points and I am thinking the same thing. Why risk it. That said likely my last Rocky Mnt bighorn tag so 2-3 more years wait is fine IF WY does not change things. No doubt they will it is just when.

I also really really want to DIY this year which has a huge impact on my unit choice - and draw odds.

I personally think I am ok through 2020. Looking really hard at choices and I have been hearing worse and worse WY sheep hunt reports from some great hunters I know. That also concerns me.

From: DonVathome
18-Dec-18
Also when I look at odds etc it can very very easily change each year - lots of guys building points that could apply. Especially with the changes. This years odds are a good start but most units have 1-2 NR preference point tags and obviously it takes only a couple of high point guys to decide to apply to keep me out.

From: TreeWalker
19-Dec-18
Sheep hunting is a tough draw whether 100% random as in ID and NM or if is a point system like most states that offer bighorn sheep tags to non-residents. MT Unlimited is a way to hunt now. Aoudad hunts can be more challenging than a bighorn hunt and can be drawn in NM and TX (through Exotics portion of state draw) for free-range hunts.

The cost to stay in the points game never goes down nor does the tag cost. The economy can go down. The allotment for non-residents can go down. The allotment for preference point holders can go down. You pay your money and take your chances. It is a tough draw even now for 99.75% of the WY non-resident sheep tag applicants. After all, 7 non-residents drew in the non-resident random draw though 2795 participated in the random draw phase. How much will you pay for that hope if you have 3 points now?

From: tjsna
19-Dec-18
I'm out I had 4 points and realized I would never draw that tag "NR". And the PP's went up so I bit the bullet and will just let them drift away.

From: Mad Trapper
19-Dec-18
I too have 19 points and hope to draw soon!

From: DonVathome
19-Dec-18
Good stuff guys thanks. Trying to predict the future!

From: NvaGvUp
19-Dec-18
Most of Wyoming's sheep are in wilderness, meaning that as a non-resident, you're really limiting your options if you want to DIY because as you know, WY requires non-residents to hire a guide in order to hunt in a wilderness.

From: flyingbrass
23-Dec-18
I got 12 points as a non-resident and I'm 45 years old. Hope to draw in my lifetime. Any doubters?

From: Trial153
23-Dec-18
I doubt it . I am two years younger and have the same points and no hope.

From: Dogman
23-Dec-18
42 with 16NR points...maybe in the next 20 yrs.

From: Trial153
23-Dec-18
lets look at it like this...we are at 12 points. There are currently 2660 point holders in front of us. We are looking at about 50 tags a year including any drawn randomly. Of course this is a rough in number and not counting guys that drop outs, however its not counting allocations changes and draw changes as well. It would take 53 years for us to run though those points in front of us.

From: Ambush
23-Dec-18
The math boggles my mind. Why would anyone start or carry on if statistically you'll never draw before you're in the old folks home. Hoping for a die off of point holders?

BC has always been random draw for all applicable species. Bison and Roosevelt elk are the only ones that are only available on a draw, everything else has some OTC and easy draw odds in many areas. When I read about some of these PP horror stories, I sure hope nobody ever implements them here.

From: TXHunter
23-Dec-18
There are only two reasons for low point holders to stay in:

1)Random draw chance; and 2)System change possibility in the future.

I am frankly amazed at the number of new applicants and the number of lower point guys who stay in every year.

Shows how many will play for any chance to hunt sheep.

From: Trial153
23-Dec-18
System changes in the future would most likely add a higher percentage of random tag or change preference points to a bonus point type system, both of which would actually reward new applications vs low point holders. Youd be better off dumping 150 on a roulette spin.

From: sticksender
24-Dec-18
Trial describes the math problem pretty clearly for anyone who is sitting at well-below max points. Not that long ago, it was still a decent investment because there were several hunts with random odds in the 1:80 to 1:150 range. So at $114.00 per year for a NR, you had decent odds for a random tag, and it was well worth gambling for. Now that the annual cost to apply has gone up dramatically (about 220.00 starting in 2019) and random odds have gotten poorer, it becomes less appealing. The random odds have continued to worsen (to roughly 1:300 and rising) as more and more people apply for a hunt yearly, instead of merely building points. So each person will have to look at the stats and decide for themselves if it's worth gambling on.

From: Trial153
24-Dec-18
I think people are in denial about how bad the odds are on some of the draws that out there . I know for myself I have always been taught to not throw good money after bad. Unfortunately in trying to draw tags I haven’t always followed that advise. The truth is that is way worse then it seems on the surface.

From: Trial153
24-Dec-18
Even states like Idaho that have random draw have worse odds then are implied because of nonsident caps.

From: DonVathome
28-Dec-18
Very good points here guys.

I will add for YOUNG people with low points, over long term more peopel will drop out then draw - you will get to the top. My educated guess is it will take 30 years if you have 5 points now. For every year you are under 5 points add 2 years. 0 points means 40 years.

From: Sandbrew
28-Dec-18
I'm with Sticksender on this one- I'm at a few less than max in Wyoming and I always looked at a Wyoming sheep application as a raffle with 1:80-1:150 or so odds for a fixed cost where nobody else has more chances than me. So in my mind $100 or so dollars is worth it for those odds. Some time ago I calculated by 2025 I would have a 50% chance of drawing if I beat out or was luckier than half the people in my point pool. I think based on annual attrition of older applicants an people drawing tags I would have a nearly 100% chance or drawing by 2035. If this sounds like a long term game....it is! Trying to sheep hunt as a regular guy your are playing the points game for a long time or spread over as many states as you can afford. Somebody has to draw and if you're not in the game your not drawing. I hope that in the next 20 years I draw at least 1 desert tag. Any other tags are a bonus at this point for me.

Sandbrew

From: goyt
28-Dec-18
There are 10,737 non-residents with points and there are 10 or so sheep tags in the NR random draw. Not great odds as a raffle!

From: bogey
28-Dec-18
Heck with my 16 points I still realize I will be old when or if I draw

From: DonVathome
28-Dec-18
What are your guys thoughts in Unit 7? PM's are great.

From: Sandbrew
28-Dec-18
goyt- You are not competing against all 10,737 other non residents only the ones in your specific hunt code. Take Unit 5 for example 984 applicants for 2 tags or Unit 1 361 applicants for 1 tag. Really not 1 in 10,000+ odds as you alluded to. Maybe that's your tactic for getting people not to apply... ;-)

Sandbrew

From: TreeWalker
28-Dec-18
You have no control over where the 10,737 NR apply though so as you predict odds the reality is your odds are the number of NR tags allocated to the random draw bucket divided by 10,737.

You can anticipate Unit 5 will have 2 random tags for NR next year and that 984 NR will apply next year but it only takes one of the hunter forums to talk up Unit 5 or one of the advisory services like Epic to say is the best unit to apply or the best unit if are not max points and the Unit 5 odds will degrade.

1 in 361 odds means you can expect will draw in the year 2370 when you will be less able to enjoy the hunting experience. The reality is if you are 30 and just got your first sheep point in 2018 in WY as a NR then you will not reach the max point pool unless you outlive most of the people currently in the pool ahead of you. More of them will die or drop out that will ever draw a tag. Say it takes 40 years and likely will since your odds of drawing a random tag over a 40 year period is well under 15%. Also assume the fees and cost for points goes up faster than general inflation. As does the tag price you will eventually be buying at age 70 or 80 or 90.

The game is very expensive so the present value of the 40 year cash flow out for fees and the tag for an applicant is measured in $10,000s if assume the costs rise 6% per year. If you were signing up for a 40 year loan in the U.S. then the lender must disclose the loan amount, interest rate and if was a fixed interest rate then would know all the payment amounts. WY sheep points go up and do fees so this would be a variable interest rate loan so will pay more each year over time.

No issue with how anyone spends their money. I presume a few of the applicants have not worked out odds with costs and years to be aware of the cost. Also, most of us will die prior to getting the sheep tag so is $10,000s without any guarantee you end up with a tag.

If WY would cut NR allotment in half then more of the currently existing NR applicants will die prior to drawing a tag.

From: Dogman
28-Dec-18

Dogman's embedded Photo
Dogman's embedded Photo
Hard to predict what the cost of points and to apply will be throughout the next 40 years, but if it stays the same (doubtful) here is what that looks like on the investment calculator. Bottom line is I think you are foolish if you are just starting out. If you have 18 or so points it is a no brainer. The question is what is the breaking point where it makes sense to cut your losses and bail?

From: Stryker
28-Dec-18
Residents perspective. I drew a sheep tag in ‘96 and had a great hunt with great partners. It was a backpack hunt into area 2 and I had my chance and blew it. This was the year that preference points went into affect and at that time you could not buy points so had to wait five years before applying again. Fast forward to today. I’m 61 years old and am missing 5 points in the great scheme of things to draw a tag. I feel your pain but as long as o think I can honestly do a sheep hunt I’ll keep applying. I don’t want this to ever become a dollar amount in my head but my body saying what the hell are you thinking. I’ve been fortunate to spend 4 different seasons in sheep country with other tag holders and if I don’t get that chance again I will always cherish those memories.

From: Stryker
28-Dec-18
Residents perspective. I drew a sheep tag in ‘96 and had a great hunt with great partners. It was a backpack hunt into area 2 and I had my chance and blew it. This was the year that preference points went into affect and at that time you could not buy points so had to wait five years before applying again. Fast forward to today. I’m 61 years old and am missing 5 points in the great scheme of things to draw a tag. I feel your pain but as long as o think I can honestly do a sheep hunt I’ll keep applying. I don’t want this to ever become a dollar amount in my head but my body saying what the hell are you thinking. I’ve been fortunate to spend 4 different seasons in sheep country with other tag holders and if I don’t get that chance again I will always cherish those memories.

From: Treeline
28-Dec-18
Dogman,

Your calculations are off.

There is no return on investment. You have it at 10%. I used the same calculator and went down to 0.01 to get as low as possible.

WY is bumping up the cost of a mpoint to $220 in 2019. I ran it at an initial value for year 1 at $220.

For your inflation amount you can estimate that $220 cost to increase annually.

For 40 years, assuming the point cost follows inflation, I came up with $16,461 for the cost of points only.

The price of a tag in 40 years assuming $2,320 in 2019 and increasing at 3% per year for 40 years end up with a tag price in 40 years of $7,567.93 (just round up to $7,600).

So, assuming inflation stays constant at 3% and you draw in 40 years, your fees and tags end up at $24,061.

Guided hunts in Wyoming are running around $10,000 for sheep. Figure your gonna be old in 40 years and will want that guide to get you to the sheep. That $10K will be $32,620.38. Throw in travel and tips for another $5,000 to $10,000and change and round up so you’re looking at $40 -45K for guide fees and getting there.

So you’re looking at $65 -70Kin 40 years for a guided sheep hunt with the majority of the cost to the guide fee 40 years down the road.

I think you could get a bighorn sheep hunt in Alberta right now for around $30-40K. If you have the money and time to go now, go. Never know when you’re gonna get nailed by a bus stepping off a sidewalk.

Actually a lot better than I thought it would turn out!

From: Trial153
28-Dec-18
Almost every sheep unit in WY that has NR tags has significant amounts of wilderness area. So your stuck hiring a guide if you draw.

Your better off borrowing the cost of a sheep hunt and going. Unless you got in on the preference point ponzie scheme on the ground floor justifying sheep draws from a money saving perspective is nothing but metal masturbation.

From: WapitiBob
28-Dec-18
Sheep points are still $150. and can't go higher without legislative action.

From: Dogman
28-Dec-18
My calculations were based on throwing $115 in an investment vehicle that has a rate of return of 10% /yr. https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/average-stock-market-return/ Nothing is guaranteed in life but a sheep tag in WY after 40 years (if you start now) sure isn’t a great bet. The market is a much better gamble if you are sitting at ground zero.

From: Branden
28-Dec-18
Treeline if you take into account interest you could be earning every year on the money if you invest it instead of applying for a tag then dogmans numbers are right.

From: Trial153
28-Dec-18
Forget sheep, show me were you can get a long term 10 percent return.

From: Dogman
28-Dec-18

Dogman's embedded Photo
Dogman's embedded Photo

From: Trial153
28-Dec-18
Yea I remember VHCOX dumping 40 percent in 08. God help them. That said I would take it over banking on a sheep tag anyday

From: Dogman
28-Dec-18
Over the long term if you dollar cost average, have some diversification, and don’t make emotional based decisions you will probably do well. If you sink that cash into a chance at a sheep tag you are a gambler, nothing wrong with that. At some point it makes no financial sense to get in the game, or get out of it. For sure a decision that should have current number of points and age/fitness level as the main factors.

From: Treeline
28-Dec-18
Sitting on 18 points at 51 in decent shape. Will stick it out.

From: goyt
28-Dec-18

goyt's embedded Photo
goyt's embedded Photo
Sandbrew, Having taken a ram this year I certainly have no desire to try to improve the odds for myself. I am out. Straight math would have the odds at 1 in 1,000 and not 1 in 10,000. I knew that not everyone applied for a tag, some just buy a point and some apply for areas w/o a random tag. You just did a much better job than I did of showing the random draw odds or the benefits of buying a raffle ticket. My point was that it is not realistic to expect to draw a random tags and it looks like you agree with that based on todays numbers. As more people realize that they need to draw in the random more will apply for areas with random tags instead of just buying points making the odds even worse.

28-Dec-18
Would be interesting to see the Age distribution of point holders. I wonder how many will still be physically able to sheep hunt 10, 20 yrs from now

From: WapitiBob
29-Dec-18
In 2017 there were over 100 Oregon sheep apps from people 80 years old and older; 4 at 90 plus. Wyoming is probably similar.

From: Zim
29-Dec-18
Don, I’d definitely burn your points and go hunt now, but that’s just me. I’m really surprised WY has not screwed point holders up to this point. Every other state I apply in has done so. It’s only a matter of time. I bailed years ago with 8 points and no regrets. Did the math and saw no future. I’ve been burned far too many times. But I’m not hell bent on sheep hunting, nor wealthy. So my decision was easy.

From: BULELK1
29-Dec-18
I'm just thankful that #22 was still available/kinda sleeper now, for a non-ressy to appy/hunt back when I was applying in Wyo.

Hang in there you guys---------->

Robb

From: TXHunter
29-Dec-18
I’ve drawn 3 tags that anyone looking at things from a mathematical standpoint would have said were wasted $$ to apply. WY Area 1 moose (random tag) in 2005, AZ desert sheep in 2014, and WY Area 1 mountain goat in 2017.

Lucky? Sure. But you can’t get lucky if you’re not even in the game. I simply consider my license/app/raffle costs as donations to conservation with a small chance of winning a once-in-a-lifetime hunt.

From: sticksender
29-Dec-18
Since Wyoming doesn’t allow anyone to apply for a sheep license without purchasing a point, if you want your name in the draw, you’re gonna have to spend some money. I’m still in, at least for now. Mainly because there are so few chances to hunt RMBS anywhere as a NR. That species will always be at the top of my want list. Of course I’m not loving the continued fee hikes. The PP fee at 150.00 plus the app fee at 15.00 plus the new-for-2019 convenience fee at 2-1/2% of the 2320.00 license fee, or 58.00, making for a total annual non-refundable cost of 223.00 for non-residents. Unless you’re already in the higher point tiers, spending that money each year will be a gamblers play forever, just hoping for a random draw. I say go ahead and play if you can afford it and are the gambling type ;-)

  • Sitka Gear