Contributors to this thread:
Was GoHunt or TopRut Right w/ Odds?
Curious about how close GoHunt or TopRut were to predicting draw odds for WY elk.
Anyone use their data and draw??
Used it and didn't draw...
When combined with other information about the units from talking to people, yes. Pretty much on the money for what I expected looking at the 5 units for elk in Wyoming that I was looking hard at.
Are they really predicting odds or are they just posting what the prior years’ odds were?
They don’t predict odds. They give you the statistics from last years draw.
Toprut lists their odds as "2018 odds" and they are very accurate. The best site for the money.
There are 2 people that predict odds that I have seen, for OR and Utah.
Definitely 2018 odds on TopRut. I would have been 66% chance with 9 points last year and didn't draw with 10 this year :(
Predicting draw odds..... aren't they kind of like the weatherman saying "50% chance of rain...." ??
Well...... except for lots of em that are 0%......
Odds and trying to pay attention to trends in the units your interested in...
Even if you pour over how many applicants at what point level...you just can't account for guys that point bank and don't apply until they think they can draw.
I watch more than a few states....and I KNOW I'm not the only one of us doing this................ /grin
There for a couple years i thought there were only 3-4 guys ahead of me in the draw for Nevada elk. Now a whole slew of guys pop up with a boatload of points, dang it.....point banking no doubt.
Point creep is here to stay for awhile on many of these hunts.
GoHunt said I had a 3.7% chance, didn't draw, VERY disappointed!