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CO Draw Recaps Posted
The draw recaps for Sheep have been posted on the CPW website. I was curious what would happen to app numbers this year, especially non-resident, after this year's fee structure changes. App numbers dropped, but the NR app pool is still about 2-1/2 times bigger than the 2017 levels.
One surprise to me, was NR Desert Bighorn apps actually dropped a little from 1772 to 1532 (for the one available NR tag). With app cost being nearly free, as long as you were already applying for another species, I assumed even more NR's would jump aboard and apply for DBH. But they didn't.
Anyway, here's how the regular bighorn sheep apps have trended over the last 3 years (NR). This includes all first-choice hunts codes, one of which is points-only.
Also the report shows there were no 2nd choice ewe tags awarded. For the first time ever, I believe. Neither NR or Res. Just way too many people in the draw pools now, for that opportunity to be overlooked. Getting a ewe tag by 2nd choice is probably going to be a thing of the past permanently.
DBHS used to be like 1 in 350 for NRs...
So a 228.7% rise in apps for RMBHS over 2017. People have 1 more year to draw (2020) before the 3+0 crowd enters the fray and odds will be cut in about 1/2 not counting weighted points.
I suspect the moose numbers are going to be similar.
3-9, 3-5 and a 3-4 drew in my app unit. 40 people (5 max), roughly 1/3 of the total applicants had higher point totals than those that drew... It still blows me away how this works!
On the Resident side, a big increase remains in the sheep app pool, compared to 2017. About 38% more people are in this year (adult+youth), compared to '17.
And resident Desert Sheep apps are still up about 68% over 2017. Average odds to draw DBHS are now at about 200:1 for residents.
Great recap, Greg. Thank you for the info.
All the sheep tags in the hunt I applied for were drawn with less points than I had...
This weighted system is messed up!
Hope my maximum moose points go away this year...
It will never go back to 2017 levels. It seems that the 50.00 fee for residents didn't scare many away.
I'm surprised that many residents dropped out. Wish more would have.
I wonder how many people with < 3 pref points opted out of buying another point and yet still applied. It would be dumb to do this, but..........
This is just getting painful.
I scrolled through the recap results. Again I'm looking at most of the NR BHS permits drawn out at point numbers in the 5-8 range. When you look close there will be a handful of applicants with A LOT more points and very few of them actually draw.
I am not familiar with the Deer and Elk draw system in CO. Is it the same system ??
I beginning to think that I would pay an extra fee for the option to NOT invert my number.
With all of the recent changes, I could get on board with something that put a little bit more weight on the number of points an applicant has. Especially considering that they have inflated the number of applicants and cheapened our points.
The math has been done and shown that the weighted points do, in fact, increase your odds of drawing. They just don't increase your odds that much.
Deer/elk are on a pure preference point system whereas whoever has the most points, gets the tags, which is completely different than sheep.
I went with an easier to draw unit due to the influx of applicants heading our way. I was lucky and drew my sheep tag. I really feel fortunate to have bear the newcomers. It was still tough odds but I lucked out. I guess if you apply everywhere every year and don’t go for insane odds tags, you may draw at least one in your life. This was my first sheep draw tag.
As i have argied befroe they need to cahge $1500 for the big three resident. I know the argument is then its a rich mans game only I don't know anybody serious that wouldn't find a way to pay it... it will weed out the "what the hecks" the people that REALLY want to hunt and make the most out of those precious tags will be hunting...that includes pretty much 100 percent of the people involved in the hunting environmental groups... plus CPW make more money and can hopefully take some of that money and put more sheep on the mountain..
Hell, I’ve been putting in for multiple states for 20 years or more and will pay the penalty for not being a resident in those states. Hell, yeah I would pay more to get a tag close to home that won’t take the extra costs of hunting out of state.
Although it really sux when I look at places like BC, Alaska and Alberta where I should have moved long ago... Sheep hunting is pretty cheap in some places....
Tavis I considered heavily in years past moving to Alaska.....and hunting sheep regularly was the top reason...
My sheep tag in alaska was free with my $80 alaska resident hunt license. I spent about 800 total on gear, food and gas for my ram with 1000 taxidermy bill added on. I still applied for a colorado raffle tag just to see if the universe smiled or not and it did not this year. Ill keep applying for the l48 tags. Id probably give the tag away if possible if i ever draw one.
If you want to go to alaska do it sooner than later becacuse each day that passes is further away from what it used to be.
If I was a Colo nonres and was paying $100/species to gain a pref pt every year I would definitely want each $100/year/species to actually mean something! It's not only an investment in years applying for tags but also an investment in $ that blows to the wind each year with the current system!
Looking at the numbers listed in the post above there certainly are a lot of youth applying for these tags....which is a good thing! The negative thing is at $100/year their draw odds decrease dramatically each year with the current system since there are a gob more new applicants that compete for tags each year than the handful of tags issued!
And hunter numbers are supposed to be sinking like a lead balloon if you listen to the G&F departments.....???? Whatever!
It use to be just when I was growing up in colorado just a very few people even knew much about sheep or goat hunting or tried to get a tag....it kind of boiled down to seeing sheep near Georgetown and realizing you couldn't just buy a tag and that was the end of that
They devastated the odds when they changed the fee process. The "fix" for that is us paying 1500% more (res) or 3200% more (nonres) and only getting 1/2 way back to the odds that existed before they broke it. Cool, thanks.
Additionally...the coolness of Sheep and just a bit lesser goats have been glamorized hard on the internet and shows...
Looking over the recap, it's interesting that a few ewe tags were drawn using a large number of weighted points. A resident used 3+16 to draw a RFW ewe license on the Kiowa Creek Ranch. Another resident used 3+12 for a Georgetown rifle ewe. And a non-resident used 3+9 to draw an S9 ewe license. This could very well be guys who just wanted out of the game. Or I guess they could've been typos on the part of the applicant. Either way, every year a few guys report getting returned ewe tags offered to them by CPW.
Last year there were even ram tags returned. Will bet that there will be at least a few ewe tags back in the pool.
Sticksender could be all of the above but could also be some who need that "check the species box" when trying to acquire "slams"
Adventurewriter, The coolness of a sheep tag started for me when I read (and reread many times) Jack O'Connor's book Sheep and Sheep Hunting many years ago! :)
Pretty soon people will realize what I've been saying all along that it is basically a lottery after three points
Orion, I won't disagree with your statement at all. When the 3+0s draw a disproportionate number of tags and displace those who have been committed to drawing these tags for 20+ years, it will finally come to light.
"Pretty soon people will realize what I've been saying all along that it is basically a lottery after three points"
As it should be. Preference point systems don't work for species where so few tags are given out. Lottery or BP, which is more like what CO's current system is. At least they make you wait 3 years... The only shame about it is that they changed up the system and hosed people that have put forth the effort to send in the big $ for all these years.
There's not enough sheep out there for everyone to get a tag in their lifetime. Some people will have to go without. There's no changing that unless we get far more sheep in the mountains.
Even before the change, there were 17,000 people putting in for CO's RMBHS tags and there's only about 200 RMBHS tags yearly in CO. 17,000/200 = 85 years and most people only have about 50 years to hunt sheep.
So some people have to go without which means a preference point system doesn't work. Their system is screwy, but the math has been done and it does show that the points increase your odds of drawing. If you want better odds for waiting, lobby for a squared BP system. Anything more than that is not going to work.
If they actually gave preference to people who'd been putting in longer, than eventually, only people in their 80s would be drawing sheep tags and some people would still be dying without drawing.
Based on that math, I can't figure out why people feel they're entitled to a sheep tag over anyone else irrespective of how long they've been putting in.
Good post Ike, but damn this horse has been beaten to a bloody pulp for so long it's sad.
"Based on that math, I can't figure out why people feel they're entitled to a sheep tag over anyone else irrespective of how long they've been putting in."
That is the problem, people think they are entitled for some reason, screw everyone else who happens to be younger than them, or got into the game later for some reason.
No not entitled but there should be more of a preference to high point holders. Right now please tell me the difference between the guy with 3+0 and the guy with 3+max getting their random numbers? There is none everyone after three points has the same exact odds of drawing the lowest random number. I would like to see the weighted points as a dividing factor being taken away and using them as random numbers. I would much rather get an extra random number each year instead of another weighted point.
I don't feel entitled... after 25+ years. I feel disappointed at the changes they have made in the last 2 years. I'm also worried about the changes they are going to make in the future. I honestly stayed in the game when they required the money up front... feeling that at least the applicants had skin in the game... Ed F
Orion...the original weighted point Flat Earth'er. Re-writing the history of statistical math. Go get 'em. A traditional bonus point system will solve all your issues!
"No not entitled but there should be more of a preference to high point holders."
And I think just about everyone can get on board with that. A BP system with squared BPs like NV does would probably be better. Anything more is just a Ponzi scheme that makes it impossible for hunters who weren't around for the origin of the point system to ever draw. The weighted points are a crazy concoction.
Oh toprut tell us all the goat and sheep tags you've drawn
Toprut you should look at the draw recap stats and adjust your "odds"
I would take one random number per weighted point.
Square my weighted points and give me a random number for every point.
Holy HELL YEAH!
One random number (just like everyone else)... Ho hum. Whutever.
My first reaction would be to support a WP-squaring scheme for the CO big-3....for the selfish reason that I have a lot of points. But with kind of a guilty feeling because I know what it will do to the youngsters who haven't started applying yet, and even to those people with 1 or 2 WPs. Since the app pool is already enormous in size and loaded with high-point holders, squaring would sharply cut the average newbie's chances of ever drawing a tag. It would however, have the bonus effect of essentially ending the historical trend of resident guys drawing 2 or 3 ram tags in a lifetime. Once you draw and go back to square-one on points, it would be a looooong wait to draw again.
I needed to have started 20 years earlier! Or at least 10. Know several guys that have managed to kill 4 sheep or goats. Kinda crazy looking at how it’s stacked against that ever happening any more.
And hunter numbers are going down?????
Stick sender I say have two pools of tags for the big three ( won't always work as some are just one tag... but basics idea the detail and numbers could be hammered out later..)..... one that is for high WP point holders and the rest just like it is... For me personally it would be middle ground just have one point for Goat now....3-9? for sheep now and like 3-17 for moose. Moose would be may last choice is given the pick of species killed one in AK and my sheep and goat hunts are # 1-2 for all time hunts and I have have done lots of hunting...want to get back at it once more...
Really the only way to draw a sheep tag was to be born earlier.
At this point the Big three should be once in a life time. the pool is too large, and its already that way. Ive been applying since 1991 with no luck! fortunately for me I've guided 50+ successful Ram hunters in this state.
The big three should absolutely be a once in a life time tag if you harvest an animal, just like Idaho does.
Just like most states actually.
There are certainly ways to draw a sheep tag for residents anyway. There’s a handful of archery ram tags with pretty decent odds. Same with a couple of the goat units.