Mathews Inc.
Colo Wted Pts worth it?
Wild Sheep
Contributors to this thread:
Jims 16-Feb-20
tkjwonta 16-Feb-20
JohnMC 16-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 16-Feb-20
Jims 16-Feb-20
JohnMC 16-Feb-20
Vids 16-Feb-20
Jims 17-Feb-20
Glunt@work 17-Feb-20
BULELK1 17-Feb-20
pav 17-Feb-20
Trial153 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Ucsdryder 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Glunt@work 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
wytex 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Quinn @work 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
NoWiser 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
NoWiser 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
Drnaln 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Orion 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
Maverick 17-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 17-Feb-20
cnelk 17-Feb-20
JohnMC 17-Feb-20
Trial153 17-Feb-20
Quinn @work 18-Feb-20
NoWiser 18-Feb-20
Orion 18-Feb-20
JohnMC 18-Feb-20
JohnMC 18-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 18-Feb-20
Yellowjacket 18-Feb-20
IdyllwildArcher 18-Feb-20
wildwilderness 18-Feb-20
DonVathome 18-Feb-20
IdyllwildArcher 19-Feb-20
Jims 19-Feb-20
sticksender 19-Feb-20
Trial153 19-Feb-20
Quinn @work 19-Feb-20
Vids 19-Feb-20
BOWUNTR 19-Feb-20
Orion 19-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 20-Feb-20
Maverick 20-Feb-20
Orion 20-Feb-20
Grey Ghost 20-Feb-20
Orion 20-Feb-20
Orion 20-Feb-20
Trial153 20-Feb-20
JohnMC 20-Feb-20
JohnMC 20-Feb-20
JohnMC 20-Feb-20
JohnMC 20-Feb-20
Jims 20-Feb-20
Orion 21-Feb-20
Jims 22-Feb-20
KHunter 06-Apr-20
Korey Wolfe 06-Apr-20
mountainman 06-Apr-20
Blade 06-Apr-20
TEmbry 06-Apr-20
JLeMieux 07-Apr-20
808bowhunter 07-Apr-20
Zim 07-Apr-20
JohnMC 07-Apr-20
IdyllwildArcher 07-Apr-20
sticksender 07-Apr-20
JohnMC 07-Apr-20
Glunt@work 07-Apr-20
KHunter 08-Apr-20
From: Jims
16-Feb-20
I have always been a weighted point skeptic for Colo sheep, moose, and mtn goat. I think a lot of guys believe that every year they apply and gain a pt they have a better % chance of drawing. Does a hunter that has applied for 20 years for a tag have a 20%, 10%, or 0.1% better chance to draw than someone just starting off?

From what I understand Colo weighted points for sheep, moose, and mtn goats are virtually worthless once a hunter has 3 pts? Having 3pts + 1 wted pt vs 3 pts + 20 wted pts aren't a whole lot different? It all hinges around being luck and drawing a low random number.

Applicants that buy a fishing, small game, turkey license are eligible to apply for sheep, moose and mtn goat in Colo. According to the regs applicants can apply for sheep, moose, and mtn goat units without paying the spendy pref pt fees.

So is it really worth residents spending $50/year and nonres $100/year to gain an additional weighted point? From what I understand it really isn't worth forking out cash to do this for only a fraction of a % better chance to draw. I wonder if enough hunters don't fork out $50 or $100/year if the CPW would change to a draw system where pts actually mean something?

I though I would toss this out there to see if I am really missing something and wted pts actually are more valuable than I think? Is it really worth the expense?

From: tkjwonta
16-Feb-20
This topic gets discussed quite often around here. There is a statistical advantage but it is small, and the advantage diminishes the more weighted points you get. I'm at 3+2 and 3+4 for sheep and goat, respectively, and I will probably continue to buy them for the time being. If I was at double digit weighted points I probably wouldn't buy any more.

From: JohnMC
16-Feb-20
If you go and look at the statics for different units for the three. There is absolutely no doubt more tags are drawn by people with more/higher points. Especially when considering there are less people generally applying with higher points for different units. If you want a realistic chance of drawing you need to purchase points.

From: Grey Ghost
16-Feb-20
My CO combo fishing and small game license is my first purchase every year. So, the minimal processing fees to apply for sheep and goats, to slightly increase my odds, doesn’t bother me.

Jim, you should schedule a July fishing trip in CO. I’m sure you’d enjoy it, and that qualifying license won’t sting so much.

;-)

Matt

From: Jims
16-Feb-20
I actually live in Colo and buy a fishing and turkey license every year. A nonres buddy of mine asked whether I thought it was worth him applying any more for sheep, moose, and goat so I told him I would check into it. $300 for pref pts for all 3 species seems like a heck of a bunch of cash! I told him if he just buys a fishing license he can apply for sheep, goat, and mtn goat without paying $300/year.

I would think that the draw odds for nonres are so poor that there are a heck of a lot of guys with high wted pts. With that in mind wted pts really don't mean much? Why pay $100/species? As a resident I apply both my son and I for tags.....that would be $300/year for both of us for 3 species....ouch!

I took a quick look at the sheep, goat, and moose draw nonres odds. If you look at the tip page of the report it lists the total tags, applicants, and how which level of pts each tag was drawn. For nonres it really didn't appear that buying additional pts really improved draw odds! For residents it looked like a little increase after around 7 pts but after that it really didn't matter.

Is it really worth $50 or $100 for each....I'm guessing not really!

From: JohnMC
16-Feb-20
Jim I hope most agree with you while I’ll keep buying them.

From: Vids
16-Feb-20
Statistically, there is an advantage but it's not huge. Someone with 3+10 has a pretty big advantage over someone with 3+0, but not much advantage over someone with 3+9.

Depends on the species too. Moose has such terrible odds that a 3+10 point holder might have a 3% chance of drawing while a 3+0 has a 2.7% chance. RMBS is a little better, and Mt goat has the best spread. (meaning the more WP, the better your odds)

Me personally: I've already killed a goat and am sitting at 2+0 again. I'll buy another point then keep trying at 3+0. Moose I'm at 3+10 and probably shouldn't buy any more wp but I can't help myself. RMBS I'm at 3+12 and really want to hunt a ram, so I'll definitely keep buying those wp.

From: Jims
17-Feb-20
Vids, That's pretty much what I thought. The tougher the unit or species to draw the less weighted points helps. Also, for nonres that are issued so few tags it probably doesn't pay to buy pts....especially after you have accumulated quite a few.

From: Glunt@work
17-Feb-20
I'm helping those that buy them by not buying any more. I have weighted for sheep, goat and moose and dont buy them. I'm fine with my terrible odds at the level I'm at. No desire to buy points and ok with what that means for my odds. The no prepay application change immensely hurt the future of draw odds.

From: BULELK1
17-Feb-20
I think they helped me when I drew my G-7 Mnt. Goat with 3pts & 4w and then my S-32 bow Ram 3pts & 5w as a Non-Ressy.

Good luck, Robb

From: pav
17-Feb-20
When I finally drew a non-resident sheep tag, I was the high point applicant in the pool....for whatever that information is worth?

From: Trial153
17-Feb-20

Trial153's Link
Worth the read.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
Good find, Trial. The weighted points do make a difference. Whether the small statistical advantage of extra points is worth the fee is up to the individual hunter. I view my application fees as a donation to wildlife management. Drawing a tag is a bonus.

Bear in mind, if you drop out of the preference point game for 10 years, your accumulated points go away.

Matt

From: Ucsdryder
17-Feb-20
Here’s what I don’t understand.

We all know CPW is chasing the almighty dollar. Why wouldn’t they require people to continue to buy points to enter the draw? It doesn’t make sense to me.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
I think giving hunters the option of applying, and either buying an additional point to increase their odds in future years, or not buying the points and just rolling the dice, is actually a good system. The hunters who want it the most will pony up for the points.

I'll be honest, though, I won't pay NR fees for preference points for statistically low odds tags. If I wasn't a Colorado resident, I probably wouldn't be in the CO sheep/goat/moose preference point game. $300/year buys a lot of fuel or groceries to hunt in your own state.

Matt

From: Glunt@work
17-Feb-20
It's just important that applicants realize there are people who have been waiting 20+ years for a tag and most of that was before the big increase in application numbers.

It's still a relatively good deal on a sheep hunt if you draw. The "if" makes a big difference.

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
I don't see much of an advantage for them. A guy with 3+0 has the same chance as a guy with 3+max drawing the low random number. Your random number assignment is the only thing that matters. Where your weighted points do come into play and help is if your random number and another applicants are close and your weighted point division factor lowers your number enough to draw.

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
This explains it the best and shows how the random number is more important then a pile of weighted points.

cpw.state.co.us/Documents/.../BigGame/Weighted-Preference-Points.pdf

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
If you read Trial's link from Toprut, their extensive simulated analysis shows a linear increase in your draw odds based on your weighted points. A person with 9 weighted points for sheep has a 10-times better draw odds than a person with 0 weighted points, for example.

Matt

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
I'm not sure how they can run that simulation without knowing how the random number is generated or the tile values. Your random number is way more important like is shown in CPW's simulation. Also your weighted points give you no advantage to your random number therefore after three points everyone's odds are dang near the same making it more like a lottery than a preferenced draw.

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
Also if you punch in the draw odds for CPWs simulation into toprut the guy with ten weighted points has five times the odds of drawing then the other two but that's not how this system works. That's why their odds are b.s.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
Orion if you and I both are assigned a random number and you have 10 weighted points and I have zero the odds are much better your random number will be lower than mine once your is divided by 11 and mine stays the same. That is simple math.

From: wytex
17-Feb-20
I gave up 3+7 several years ago. No need to pay the Colorado NR price when I might have a chance at a resident tag in Wyoming again, I've taken 2 bulls already. Good luck to you all in the game, some nice bulls running around in Colorado moose country.

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
JohnMC look who is pulling tags it's a lot of low point holders due to the fact there are much more of them and they have better "odds" of getting the low random number. If my number is 999764 and yours is 000146 it doesn't matter if I have 20 weighted points your getting the tag, even though my "odds" are way better than yours.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
The random number is just that...random. So, everyone has the same odds of getting a high, medium, or low random number. Mathematically, the only thing that improves your odds of drawing the tag is more weighted points.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
Dirk,

If you agree that everyone has the same odds of being assigned a low random number, which is fact, then which pool of hunters would you rather be in after the random number is assigned? A) The larger pool of hunters with fewer weighted points, or B) the smaller pool of hunters with many points. I know which pool I'd rather be in.

I'm sure glad some of you don't have gambling addictions. The whole reason of having the weighted points is to increase your odds after the random number is assigned to your application. That's mathematical fact, whether you understand it, or not.

Matt

From: Quinn @work
17-Feb-20
I agree statistically there isn't a huge advantage. The main reason I continue to buy points is the fact that the CPW will most likely change the process for moose, sheep and goats sometime before I draw sheep again. The new process has a good "chance" that they could favor the guys with the most bonus points. Those are the odds I'm playing.

I would feel pretty dumb if all the sudden they changed it to where the max point holders have a statistically larger advantage but I stopped buying points to basically save a tank of gas in cash per year.

With that said I encourage everyone to not buy points anymore.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
If you have a group of people all have random number all are equally likely to have a high or low number but some are stuck with that number others number is going to be divided by somewhere between 2 and about 20. How can you not see that it helps your odds if that number is lowered drastically if divided by a high number.

Look at this way if you have a million dollars and it was divided by 10. Your $1,000,000 is now only $100,000 a whole lot less. Or use 6 digits like the CPW does, you have $682,371 and I have $214,537 I have the lower amount by a lot. But if your $682,371 was divided by 10 now you have $68,237.10 and you have a much small amount.

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
If that were the case then most of the tags should be going to the 3+9 to Max crowd. Which 9 is about the half point. If you look at the draw stats the 3+0 to 3+8 crowd is drawing a majority of the tags.

From: Orion
17-Feb-20

Orion's embedded Photo
Orion's embedded Photo
Matt and John here is the pre and post draw applicants. Please show me the huge advantage the high weighted point holders have.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
Look at this way. If you have 9 points your odds would 10 greater of drawing (because your number will be divided by 10) than some with no weighed points. But if you have 10 times the amount of people with no weighed points. The odds are the same someone with 9 points or someone no points of draw one tag. Only because there are 10 names in the hat for every one with 9 points.

Say for unit #1 there is one tag. 11 people apply 1 person has 9 weighed points. 10 people have no weighed point. It is a 50% chance that the person with 9 draws. It is a 50% chance one of the 10 with zero points draw.

If in unit #2 there is one tag and 2 people apply one with 9 weighed points and one with zero weighed points there is a 90% chance the person with 9 points draw a 10% chance the person with zero draws.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
Using your chart above max weighted points was 18. Looking at residents:

18 weighted points - 13 of 232 drew. 5.6% percent chance of drawing

Zero weighted points 2 of 2118 drew. 0.09% percent chance of drawing. Less than 1 in 1000

Four weighted points 13 of 735 drew. 1.76% chance of drawing.

How do you not see your odds are much better with more weighted points??

From: NoWiser
17-Feb-20
That chart pretty clearly shows that weighted points are an advantage.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
Orion,

That chart clearly shows the advantage high weighted points holders have. Simply divide the total number of successful draws by the total number of applicants at any specific level of points. For example, 3.75% of the applicants with 18 points drew their tags. Only 0.27% of applicants with 1 point drew their tags.

Math is hard.....

Matt

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
I was looking at overall their are more mid point holders drawing then the 3+16 to Max point holders. 58 tags went to the 3+4 to 3+7 group where as only 29 went to 3+16 to Max guys. The mid point holders are drawing twice the number of tags as the high point holders. Math isn't hard Matt.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
Orion again if you do a little math (not that hard). For residents:

3+4 - 3+7 2502 people applied and drew 58 tags -- 58 of 2502 so 2.3% drew.

3+16 - 3+18 556 people applied and drew 29 tags -- 29 of 556 so 5.2% drew.

The high point people drew at a more than double the rate as the lower level point group you used as an example.

From: NoWiser
17-Feb-20
There are 6x as many people in the 4-7 point group and they are only drawing 2x as many tags. If there wasn't an advantage, they should be drawing 6x as many tags. The high point holders are likely putting in for tougher units, as well. Sorry, but you are wrong. Weighted points matter.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
On a personal note I hope more people don't buy points because my odds with weighted points are better with more people at zero than those same people with weighted points. But you need to decide what is more important to you $50 in your pocket each year or higher odds or draw a tag in the future. I'll buy the points and I am a cheap SOB.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
The odds of drawing a resident tag with 18 weighted points was 62 times greater than drawing a tag with 0 weighted points. Yet, guys will still argue the weighted points don't matter. Their math teachers are cringing, or rolling in their graves.

Matt

From: Orion
17-Feb-20

Orion's embedded Photo
Orion's embedded Photo
Your odds would say the person who drew this tag shouldn't have. Their are too many variables to calculate your true odds of drawing. The biggest being the random number. With the influx of people CPW let in a couple years ago with the no fee apps they will draw a majority of the tags in the next few years. Just by their shear numbers they have the best "odds" of pulling a low random number. It is basically a lottery after three points and you have to pray to the draw gods that you get a low number or a great tile assignment. I'm sure all those max point guys want to hear your odds when the guys with 3+2 are pulling the tags. Colorado should actually go to a Utah system where the max point guys get some tags and others do as well. For example if unit x has five ram tags then three go to the highest point applicants and the other two are distributed how they are now. That way everyone still has a shot, but some of the max guys can draw out. As it is now all the weighted points in the world don't guarantee anything.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
I just going to remember in my head what Ron White says and leave it at that...

From: Drnaln
17-Feb-20
Only reason the lower point guys are drawing more tags is because of the shear number of applicants. Compare a single 3 + 0 applicant to a single 3+18 applicant draw odds. It's not really that difficult!

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
There are guarantees, then there are statistics and probabilities, Orion. You should learn the difference. If you apply with zero weighted points, your odds of drawing are 62 times lower than drawing with 18 weighted points. The numbers don't lie.

You're focusing on the total number of tags drawn, while ignoring how many hunters applied at any level of point accumulation. Math is hard.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
I give up. Im not here to teach basic math concepts.

Please, don’t apply for those weighted points. Really. They mean nothing.

Matt

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
But Matt killing bears is easy

From: Orion
17-Feb-20
Matt and John I'm still waiting for your odds on that s36 rifle tag. What odds did the 3+5 guy have compared to the five guys with Max points.

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
What don’t you understand about the difference between luck and odds, Orion?

Matt.

From: Maverick
17-Feb-20
Now that points are much more expensive than what they used to be in CO, can someone figure the percentage/odds per dollar? And then tell us if those weighted points are worth it in terms of a per-dollar percentage of drawing? Please school us on your math prowess?

From: Grey Ghost
17-Feb-20
The odds per dollar is irrelevant, if you wanna play the game. More weighted points give you better odds. Period. There’s no debating that. Math is hard.

Matt

From: cnelk
17-Feb-20
Sooooo glad I drew my Colorado bull moose tag 10 years ago. :) Even then I had applied for 18 years.

From: JohnMC
17-Feb-20
Orion if I put 100 green jelly beans in a jar and 10 yellow ones and blind folded you. First time you pick a yellow. Are you going to suggested your odds are just as good drawing a yellow the next time if we put your yellow one back repeated the process?

From: Trial153
17-Feb-20
I am not sure how you can argue that there isnt an increase in your probability as your weighted points increase. Thats been played out through draw simulations again and again.. If you want to debate the value of the increase vs the cost thats a totally separate converstaion.

From: Quinn @work
18-Feb-20
Maybe GG, Orion and JohnMC could continue their intellectual mathematical conversation on private message? The lesson has been informational but is starting to get really long in the tooth.

From: NoWiser
18-Feb-20
Like beating a dead horse that can’t do division.

From: Orion
18-Feb-20
No John your odds are one less. You went from a ten percent chance to nine. Kinda like when you have 500 people with 3+5 applying and 50 people with 3+max. Odds are one of the 3+5 guys will get the lowest number and draw. His odds were bad but his probability was high. I'm still waiting on how your calculating draw odds when everyone after three points has the same chance at getting a low random number. I've said it a thousand times after three points it's a straight lottery coming down to the luck of your random number. Matt I know it's luck that's what I've been saying but your claiming it's odds and giving way more credit to the weighted points then they deserve. If they were as beneficial as you and John claim why would the money hungry CPW honestly let people opt out? Because after a certain point they become irrelevant. More weighted points can not offset the sheer numbers of the lower point applicants.

From: JohnMC
18-Feb-20

JohnMC's embedded Photo
JohnMC's embedded Photo
...

From: JohnMC
18-Feb-20

JohnMC's embedded Photo
JohnMC's embedded Photo
May I suggest...

From: Grey Ghost
18-Feb-20
You're right, Orion, those weighted points are meaningless. There's no sense in purchasing them. Keep telling your friends that, too. SMH....

Matt

From: Yellowjacket
18-Feb-20
If you have 100 green jelly beans and 10 yellow ones and put the yellow jelly bean back in the jar and draw again blindfolded your odds of drawing a yellow jelly bean are exactly the same. A 0.09 chance of drawing a yellow one.

18-Feb-20
Orion, I bet that your entire life, you've been telling people who are smarter than you that you are right and they are wrong.

18-Feb-20
Not worth it

From: DonVathome
18-Feb-20
NR apps tripled I believe it was 3 years ago. If memory serves me all those newbies hit the draw for real this year or next year. I basically assume I know have almost no chance at drawing. I drew both sheep and mnt goat so I am lucky. If I draw either I will not apply anymore - and I go for 40 -50 tags a year.

My 2 cents is do not waste your money. Buy some lottery tags like WY super tags or state raffle tickets. Probably the same chance as drawing a much worse tag. Granted in 20 years it will get better but that is a long time and a lot of $$$ away

19-Feb-20
It's next year. Those folks are 2+0 currently.

From: Jims
19-Feb-20
I certainly have a tough time tossing $ to the wind. When a guy with 0 pts has 0.5 chance to draw and a guy with 20 pts has 2.5% chance to draw that's simply horrible odds of drawing after 20 years of applying! I really don't see any significant difference between 0.5 and 2.5% chance of drawing? That's 2.5 chances in 100.....terrible!

20 years of applying x $100/year is $2,000 with little chance to draw after 20 years! If a nonres applies for moose, sheep, and goats that $6,000 tossed to the wind for close to 0% chance to draw!

The other terrifying thing is that there are more hunters joining the pool of applicants each year...which is gaining at a lot higher rate than tags are issued. That means everyone's draw odds are decreasing every year. It's tough to say how many new guys will join the pool in the next 20 years? You actually can't look at the current level of applicants because there likely will be a lot more applicants 5, 10, an 20 years from now!

From: sticksender
19-Feb-20
Jim, most of us don't apply for just one year. Lifetime odds of drawing is what I care about. As far as point cost, compared to the going rate for one of the BSAP sheep hunts (50k-80k), 3k for 30 years of points is a heckuva bargain.

From: Trial153
19-Feb-20
I wouldnt be suprised if a lot of the guys that got in two years ago with tbe CO fish and game fiasco arnt in now ....apps will be up but not to extent of two years ago.

From: Quinn @work
19-Feb-20
Yep bonus points don’t matter. Anyone with 3 points should not pay for a bonus point.

It’s a tank of gas save your cash!

From: Vids
19-Feb-20
Trial153 I'm with you on that. A bunch of people jumped in because it was free to apply (or nearly free, don't remember). They don't have skin in the game and won't keep building points for $50 or $100/species/year.

Looking at the last two years draws, 2018 had 8186 resident apps with 0 points, 2019 had 3095 apps with 1 point. Nonresidents went from 7498 apps with 0 points in 2018 to 2402 apps with 1 point in 2019.

From: BOWUNTR
19-Feb-20
After 25 years and no tag... I'm booking an Alaskan goat hunt. I'll stay in the sheep draw but will not buy a weighted point. My healthy days on this planet are numbered... Ed F

From: Orion
19-Feb-20
John of course your stats show max point guys having the highest app per tag percentage. They have the lowest number of applicants. The problem is there rate of drawing is not increasing when you look at all the tags being drawn, it is actually decreasing. The 3+4 to 3+7 group has the highest increase rate of drawing when you look at all the draw stats. You keep playing the stats game and I'll keep hunting sheep and goats that my family and I keep drawing. Matt have you drawn any of the big three???

From: Grey Ghost
20-Feb-20
Orion, I've drawn sheep once and goats twice. I currently have 3+13 points for moose, 3+8 for sheep, and 3+3 for goats. It's my 21 points for elk that has me excited, though.

Your own posted stats show that residents with 18 weighted points had 62 times better odds of drawing than guys with 0 points, yet you are still arguing that weighted points don't matter? I can show you the math, but I can't fix stupid.

Like I said, keep telling all your friends how weighted points are meaningless, please.

Matt

From: Maverick
20-Feb-20
What Jims said.

“ I certainly have a tough time tossing $ to the wind. When a guy with 0 pts has 0.5 chance to draw and a guy with 20 pts has 2.5% chance to draw that's simply horrible odds of drawing after 20 years of applying! I really don't see any significant difference between 0.5 and 2.5% chance of drawing? That's 2.5 chances in 100.....terrible! 20 years of applying x $100/year is $2,000 with little chance to draw after 20 years! If a nonres applies for moose, sheep, and goats that $6,000 tossed to the wind for close to 0% chance to draw!

The other terrifying thing is that there are more hunters joining the pool of applicants each year...which is gaining at a lot higher rate than tags are issued. That means everyone's draw odds are decreasing every year. It's tough to say how many new guys will join the pool in the next 20 years? You actually can't look at the current level of applicants because there likely will be a lot more applicants 5, 10, an 20 years from now!”

From: Orion
20-Feb-20
Matt, here you go Moose 63% of tags drawn by 3+9 or lower Goat 67% of tags drawn by 3+9 or lower Sheep 61% of tags drawn by 3+9 or lower 3+18 is max so I picked the halfway point. The trend is climbing of lower point holders drawing a brunt of the tags and it will only get worse with more applicants joining the lower levels. MATH. My dad and I have drawn 2 goat tags, 1 rocky, 1 desert, and 1 moose. The desert is straight lottery and was drawn first year applying. The 2 goat, rocky and moose tag were all drawn between 3+2 and 3+4. Nobody said we are or not buying points, I'm just trying to show people they don't mean as much as some people think. Look at all the people that only put in for points like they are banking for a future hunt, that is the dumbest thing you can do for the big 3.

From: Grey Ghost
20-Feb-20
Orion, those percentages are meaningless with respect to the individual odds that a hunter has of drawing a tag. All they show is there are vastly more hunters applying with fewer points. One last attempt at a math lessen....

5.6% of resident hunters with 3+18 points drew their sheep tags in 2019.

2.3% of resident hunters with between 3+4 and 3+7 points drew their sheep tags in 2019.

0.09% of resident hunters with 3+0 points drew their sheep tags in 2019.

That means hunters with 18 weighted points enjoyed 2.4 times better odds of drawing a tag than hunters with 4-7 weighted points, and 62 times better odds than hunters with 0 weighted points.

I'm sorry you don't understand the math, but the numbers don't lie. Weighted points clearly make a difference. It sounds like your family has been extremely lucky, and that's great. I hope your luck continues. But, suggesting weighted points don't increase a hunter's odds is just mathematically ignorant.

Matt

From: Orion
20-Feb-20
Matt, if they had that great of a chance the higher point holders should be pulling more than 40% of the tags. The two problems are nobody has any advantage to their random number and secondly the sheer number of people joining the draw when they hit the 3 points

From: Orion
20-Feb-20
Those two points are also beneficial also because at least my kids will have somewhat of a chance at a tag, although slim it is better then a true preference point state like Wyoming where my kids are so far behind they would never draw.

From: Trial153
20-Feb-20
Statistics professors everywhere are groaning and wrenching in pain

From: JohnMC
20-Feb-20
Orion you are wrong when you say no one has any advantage to their random number. When your random number is divide by something between 2 and 19 to get your final random number that is a big advantage. Especially when you get closer to being one of the folks with 18 weighted points and your random number is going to be divided by 19. Your original random number means absolutely nothing unless you have zero weighted points and you are stuck with it. Everyone's else random number will be at least half that and that is only if they one point. Most with points will be much less than half their original number. But I am being to think we would have better luck teaching a infant how to spell supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, than you statistics

From: JohnMC
20-Feb-20
Dirk it was not set up so that the person with the points win. If that was the case you would have a bunch of 80 something year olds trying to hunt sheep and goats in terrain most could not navigate because there will never be enough tags for everyone. It tips the scales in favor of those that have applied the longest but gives a chance to those that are new at applying. I also like the fact that they have added the $50 to apply for a point. It is a hurdle that is not to big to exclude many financially but probably keeps people out that don't really have burning desire to hunt them. I hate to see it when someone draws and treats tag as nothing more special than a second choice deer tag.

Is it a perfect system - no. But no system is when demand so outweighs supply.

From: JohnMC
20-Feb-20
It is a 6 digit number. So the average number would be 500,000 divide that by 20 it drops to (0)25,000. That gives you 97.5% chance of having a lower number than someone that has zero weighted points. If you started with 999,999 the highest possible 6 digit number you could have and divide it by 20 your number would be (0)50,000 and you would have a 95% chance of having a lower number than the person with no weighted points. Anyway I have crunched the numbers say weighted points help your odds greatly. I am a cheap ass. I would love to be convinced saving $50 for each tag I applied for made since, but the math don't lie.

From: JohnMC
20-Feb-20
Dirk I remember talking with you about sheep at Hooters. Want to increase your odds, start putting for archery instead of rifle. I am tired of doing math but I bet they are close to 10x better odds of drawing. Yooper said he changes his underwear once a year just before he comes to ogle the hooters waitresses.

From: Jims
20-Feb-20
JohnMC, you are talking 2019 draw odds. Every year there are more applicants entering the draw so the % of drawing at all pt levels decreases each year. If twice the number of applicants apply 20 years from now your odds will be way worse than they are in 2019!

It comes down to do you actually think that it is worth spending $50 or $100/year for less than 5% chance to draw most sheep, goat, and mtn goat tags? A 5% chance to draw is 5 in 100 which is HORRIBLE draw odds after 20 years of applying! If you really think it's worth spending that kind of cash with odds that really aren't that much better than just applying for a tag and not donating $50/tag....go for it!

The CPW sheep, goat, and moose draw is a joke!

From: Orion
21-Feb-20
There are a bunch of high weighted point holders that think they should be drawing more than 39% of the tags with their "statistical advantage"

From: Jims
22-Feb-20
If I was a nonres and paid $300/year plus the price of a small game, turkey, etc tag to apply for 3 species I would expect that my time and $ invested would give me a little better chance to draw a tag! $300/yr for nonres and $150/year for res isn't chunk-change for blue-collared fellows like me!

For the record, I just drew a bighorn tag this last year and I'm out of the sheep picture for a while. I still think the system is a joke and flawed!

From: KHunter
06-Apr-20
I love it when math challenged folks talk the internet into not gaining bonus points. Absolutely love it. Keep it going Orion, it is a public service to guys who actually want to draw and understand the intricacies of the ‘long game’ in the draws. While at it, toss in some conspiracy theory rhetoric, that will amplify your message bent on leading people to the wrong path toward drawing coveted tags...

Did you fail to understand the portion of Toprut article that looked at the difference in LONG TERM overall odds differential between those accruing points and those standing pat with 3+0. Trying to view the value of weighted points via a one-year snapshot and not is not smart.

I hope to draw my 4th Colo moose tag, 3rd sheep tag and 2nd Mt Goat tag this year. In it to win it. Take my $$ CPW...Also looking forward to desert sheep tags in UT/AZ/NM/NV...gonna be a busy year.

From: Korey Wolfe
06-Apr-20
I'm laughing so hard I hurt my ab muscles

From: mountainman
06-Apr-20

mountainman's embedded Photo
mountainman's embedded Photo

From: Blade
06-Apr-20
If you want the real answer and the methodology illustrated, it's all in this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfq5kju627c

From: TEmbry
06-Apr-20
I drew sheep with 3 weighted plus zero bonus as NR a few years ago.

I have no clue the odds but I know they were abysmal. I’m buying the first three years of points to get back in the game then will decide if bonus points are worth whatever fee they are charging at that time to me personally. They mathematically help, and those arguing otherwise just don’t understand numbers. That said, I’m living proof the numbers aren’t fool proof and it can be done regardless.

From: JLeMieux
07-Apr-20
There are two different arguments being made here. Both are right but they do not support the same conclusion.

Orion is arguing the percentage of tags going to a group or range of applicants.

Others are arguing the percent chance a specific point level has of drawing a tag. If this increases with more points, then obviously there is an advantage to building points.

Apples to oranges as it relates to any one person's chance of drawing a tag. If I'm applying, I want to know what my chances are of drawing, not necessarily how many tags are going to various point ranges. All of that information is important, but it doesn't all mean the same thing.

From: 808bowhunter
07-Apr-20
I would think everyone understands that an extra point increases your odds, just not very much. It all depends on what a $100 means to you. If I was rich, no doubt I would buy the point. I’m sitting on 6 weighted points and I now only apply for a tag and don’t buy points. 10 years and $1000 dollars of points would jump me up only a percent chance of drawing. I chose to save that money and apply for sheep in other states like Nevada. 100$ is not bad of CO was the only state to apply in, but If you apply to most Rocky Mountain states it gets expensive and you gotta pick and chose.

From: Zim
07-Apr-20
I have 3+15 for NR sheep and just declined the $100 point option. I just don't think it's a good value to increase odds so incrementally for that fee. I dump enough in hunting applications each year as it is. No need for more. 3+15 will give me a chance each year. But the odds say I won't draw in my lifetime anyway so why waste another 1 or 2 K?

From: JohnMC
07-Apr-20
They won't let me buy sheep points this year or any until 2025.

07-Apr-20
IMO, it's worth it to buy them just to have them for when they change the system in X years, much less the nominal bump in odds to draw with them under the current system.

From: sticksender
07-Apr-20
Ha John, that's because you were a lucky dog!

Drawing public sheep tags is a long game for those who "must hunt sheep". For them it means applying to every state draw and raffle available, and taking every feasible step to maximize draw odds in every case. Like I stated above, compared to the alternative of purchasing an RFW or BSAP sheep hunt, purchasing 30 years worth of Colorado points remains a bargain, even for NR. Also worth repeating is that very few of us apply for 1 year then quit. So the single-year odds alone are not a useful metric.

From: JohnMC
07-Apr-20
My bet is a lot will not be spending for points. In 5-10 years will be a much smaller pool of folk with higher points increasing odds to better than current levels.

From: Glunt@work
07-Apr-20
I'm doing my part to increase point buyer's odds. I'm sticking at my current level. I completely understand the effect weighted points have on odds.

From: KHunter
08-Apr-20
+1 JohnMc. 2025 they let me back in.

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