**Contributors to this thread:**

From what I understand Colo weighted points for sheep, moose, and mtn goats are virtually worthless once a hunter has 3 pts? Having 3pts + 1 wted pt vs 3 pts + 20 wted pts aren't a whole lot different? It all hinges around being luck and drawing a low random number.

Applicants that buy a fishing, small game, turkey license are eligible to apply for sheep, moose and mtn goat in Colo. According to the regs applicants can apply for sheep, moose, and mtn goat units without paying the spendy pref pt fees.

So is it really worth residents spending $50/year and nonres $100/year to gain an additional weighted point? From what I understand it really isn't worth forking out cash to do this for only a fraction of a % better chance to draw. I wonder if enough hunters don't fork out $50 or $100/year if the CPW would change to a draw system where pts actually mean something?

I though I would toss this out there to see if I am really missing something and wted pts actually are more valuable than I think? Is it really worth the expense?

Jim, you should schedule a July fishing trip in CO. I’m sure you’d enjoy it, and that qualifying license won’t sting so much.

;-)

Matt

I would think that the draw odds for nonres are so poor that there are a heck of a lot of guys with high wted pts. With that in mind wted pts really don't mean much? Why pay $100/species? As a resident I apply both my son and I for tags.....that would be $300/year for both of us for 3 species....ouch!

I took a quick look at the sheep, goat, and moose draw nonres odds. If you look at the tip page of the report it lists the total tags, applicants, and how which level of pts each tag was drawn. For nonres it really didn't appear that buying additional pts really improved draw odds! For residents it looked like a little increase after around 7 pts but after that it really didn't matter.

Is it really worth $50 or $100 for each....I'm guessing not really!

Depends on the species too. Moose has such terrible odds that a 3+10 point holder might have a 3% chance of drawing while a 3+0 has a 2.7% chance. RMBS is a little better, and Mt goat has the best spread. (meaning the more WP, the better your odds)

Me personally: I've already killed a goat and am sitting at 2+0 again. I'll buy another point then keep trying at 3+0. Moose I'm at 3+10 and probably shouldn't buy any more wp but I can't help myself. RMBS I'm at 3+12 and really want to hunt a ram, so I'll definitely keep buying those wp.

Good luck, Robb

Trial153's Link

Bear in mind, if you drop out of the preference point game for 10 years, your accumulated points go away.

Matt

We all know CPW is chasing the almighty dollar. Why wouldn’t they require people to continue to buy points to enter the draw? It doesn’t make sense to me.

I'll be honest, though, I won't pay NR fees for preference points for statistically low odds tags. If I wasn't a Colorado resident, I probably wouldn't be in the CO sheep/goat/moose preference point game. $300/year buys a lot of fuel or groceries to hunt in your own state.

Matt

It's still a relatively good deal on a sheep hunt if you draw. The "if" makes a big difference.

cpw.state.co.us/Documents/.../BigGame/Weighted-Preference-Points.pdf

Matt

Matt

If you agree that everyone has the same odds of being assigned a low random number, which is fact, then which pool of hunters would you rather be in after the random number is assigned? A) The larger pool of hunters with fewer weighted points, or B) the smaller pool of hunters with many points. I know which pool I'd rather be in.

I'm sure glad some of you don't have gambling addictions. The whole reason of having the weighted points is to increase your odds after the random number is assigned to your application. That's mathematical fact, whether you understand it, or not.

Matt

I would feel pretty dumb if all the sudden they changed it to where the max point holders have a statistically larger advantage but I stopped buying points to basically save a tank of gas in cash per year.

With that said I encourage everyone to not buy points anymore.

Look at this way if you have a million dollars and it was divided by 10. Your $1,000,000 is now only $100,000 a whole lot less. Or use 6 digits like the CPW does, you have $682,371 and I have $214,537 I have the lower amount by a lot. But if your $682,371 was divided by 10 now you have $68,237.10 and you have a much small amount.

Say for unit #1 there is one tag. 11 people apply 1 person has 9 weighed points. 10 people have no weighed point. It is a 50% chance that the person with 9 draws. It is a 50% chance one of the 10 with zero points draw.

If in unit #2 there is one tag and 2 people apply one with 9 weighed points and one with zero weighed points there is a 90% chance the person with 9 points draw a 10% chance the person with zero draws.

18 weighted points - 13 of 232 drew. 5.6% percent chance of drawing

Zero weighted points 2 of 2118 drew. 0.09% percent chance of drawing. Less than 1 in 1000

Four weighted points 13 of 735 drew. 1.76% chance of drawing.

How do you not see your odds are much better with more weighted points??

That chart clearly shows the advantage high weighted points holders have. Simply divide the total number of successful draws by the total number of applicants at any specific level of points. For example, 3.75% of the applicants with 18 points drew their tags. Only 0.27% of applicants with 1 point drew their tags.

Math is hard.....

Matt

3+4 - 3+7 2502 people applied and drew 58 tags -- 58 of 2502 so 2.3% drew.

3+16 - 3+18 556 people applied and drew 29 tags -- 29 of 556 so 5.2% drew.

The high point people drew at a more than double the rate as the lower level point group you used as an example.

Matt

You're focusing on the total number of tags drawn, while ignoring how many hunters applied at any level of point accumulation. Math is hard.

Matt

Please, don’t apply for those weighted points. Really. They mean nothing.

Matt

Matt.

Matt

Matt

My 2 cents is do not waste your money. Buy some lottery tags like WY super tags or state raffle tickets. Probably the same chance as drawing a much worse tag. Granted in 20 years it will get better but that is a long time and a lot of $$$ away

20 years of applying x $100/year is $2,000 with little chance to draw after 20 years! If a nonres applies for moose, sheep, and goats that $6,000 tossed to the wind for close to 0% chance to draw!

The other terrifying thing is that there are more hunters joining the pool of applicants each year...which is gaining at a lot higher rate than tags are issued. That means everyone's draw odds are decreasing every year. It's tough to say how many new guys will join the pool in the next 20 years? You actually can't look at the current level of applicants because there likely will be a lot more applicants 5, 10, an 20 years from now!

It’s a tank of gas save your cash!

Looking at the last two years draws, 2018 had 8186 resident apps with 0 points, 2019 had 3095 apps with 1 point. Nonresidents went from 7498 apps with 0 points in 2018 to 2402 apps with 1 point in 2019.

Your own posted stats show that residents with 18 weighted points had 62 times better odds of drawing than guys with 0 points, yet you are still arguing that weighted points don't matter? I can show you the math, but I can't fix stupid.

Like I said, keep telling all your friends how weighted points are meaningless, please.

Matt

“ I certainly have a tough time tossing $ to the wind. When a guy with 0 pts has 0.5 chance to draw and a guy with 20 pts has 2.5% chance to draw that's simply horrible odds of drawing after 20 years of applying! I really don't see any significant difference between 0.5 and 2.5% chance of drawing? That's 2.5 chances in 100.....terrible! 20 years of applying x $100/year is $2,000 with little chance to draw after 20 years! If a nonres applies for moose, sheep, and goats that $6,000 tossed to the wind for close to 0% chance to draw!

The other terrifying thing is that there are more hunters joining the pool of applicants each year...which is gaining at a lot higher rate than tags are issued. That means everyone's draw odds are decreasing every year. It's tough to say how many new guys will join the pool in the next 20 years? You actually can't look at the current level of applicants because there likely will be a lot more applicants 5, 10, an 20 years from now!”

5.6% of resident hunters with 3+18 points drew their sheep tags in 2019.

2.3% of resident hunters with between 3+4 and 3+7 points drew their sheep tags in 2019.

0.09% of resident hunters with 3+0 points drew their sheep tags in 2019.

That means hunters with 18 weighted points enjoyed 2.4 times better odds of drawing a tag than hunters with 4-7 weighted points, and 62 times better odds than hunters with 0 weighted points.

I'm sorry you don't understand the math, but the numbers don't lie. Weighted points clearly make a difference. It sounds like your family has been extremely lucky, and that's great. I hope your luck continues. But, suggesting weighted points don't increase a hunter's odds is just mathematically ignorant.

Matt

Is it a perfect system - no. But no system is when demand so outweighs supply.

It comes down to do you actually think that it is worth spending $50 or $100/year for less than 5% chance to draw most sheep, goat, and mtn goat tags? A 5% chance to draw is 5 in 100 which is HORRIBLE draw odds after 20 years of applying! If you really think it's worth spending that kind of cash with odds that really aren't that much better than just applying for a tag and not donating $50/tag....go for it!

The CPW sheep, goat, and moose draw is a joke!

For the record, I just drew a bighorn tag this last year and I'm out of the sheep picture for a while. I still think the system is a joke and flawed!

Did you fail to understand the portion of Toprut article that looked at the difference in LONG TERM overall odds differential between those accruing points and those standing pat with 3+0. Trying to view the value of weighted points via a one-year snapshot and not is not smart.

I hope to draw my 4th Colo moose tag, 3rd sheep tag and 2nd Mt Goat tag this year. In it to win it. Take my $$ CPW...Also looking forward to desert sheep tags in UT/AZ/NM/NV...gonna be a busy year.

I have no clue the odds but I know they were abysmal. I’m buying the first three years of points to get back in the game then will decide if bonus points are worth whatever fee they are charging at that time to me personally. They mathematically help, and those arguing otherwise just don’t understand numbers. That said, I’m living proof the numbers aren’t fool proof and it can be done regardless.

Orion is arguing the percentage of tags going to a group or range of applicants.

Others are arguing the percent chance a specific point level has of drawing a tag. If this increases with more points, then obviously there is an advantage to building points.

Apples to oranges as it relates to any one person's chance of drawing a tag. If I'm applying, I want to know what my chances are of drawing, not necessarily how many tags are going to various point ranges. All of that information is important, but it doesn't all mean the same thing.