Would You Go If This Was Late October?
Whitetail Deer
Reading the Bear thread, and seeing the US/CA border closing news made me wonder. What if it was mid/late October, instead of March, and you had a Midwest Whitetail hunt planned, one you could drive to. It's obviously "non-essential" travel, right? Everything else being equal, with today's snapshot in time, would you go, or stay home?
I'd drive anywhere within my home country. I'm just going out into the bush. Less chance of transmitting my highly infectious hunting habit that way than if I stay home.
I kind of wish it was September or November. I would just move into my wall tent in the woods. As long as I could get a cell signal every once in a while I could keep up with what little is going on at work right now.
Just kinda piss’s me off that I worked all my life so I would have fishing and hunting seasons off. Now most everybody else does too!!
With absolutely zero reserve
Might you stay home Greenie?? I think not....
No doubt, some are saying the best place to be is out in nature in a tent or RV and away from the masses! Shawn
Yes, this is therapy for me. I actually told my doctor how good I feel from planning,, to the time I spend do them. She actually said ppl that plan stuff like this live healthier lifes. So can I say I'm doing it for medical reasons??
Now how can I get my healthcare to pay for it???
I’d go. Heck, I went to RSA in 2014 with the Ebola virus outbreak. Use some common sense.
I'm going turkey hunting out of state in in a week or two.
Due to everything being closed, the DNR is encouraging people who go to fitness centers to use the green gym!
Get out on the trails biking, running and walking.
And Illinois DNR closed the state parks!? I hate knee jerk reactions.
All I'm saying is, this crap needs to blow over by August... I have some social distancing planned and am trying to increase my Mycoplasma and CWD exposure and I need humanity's disease problems to not cramp my planned exposures.
Uh huh.. don’t think I would really even think twice about it.
What size of catastrophe does your country need to go through before it inhibits your fun? I guess that’s the question you need to ask yourself.
Enjoy yourself. I’ll be on the front line.
I’m traveling hunting right now (TX). I don’t see what the big deal is. I’m in contact with very few individuals. I don’t see any reason to stay home if traveling in my truck. So much overreaction to everything right now IMO.
—Jim
There are layers of great men and women standing between you and economic ruin, not to mention physical ruin, and you don’t see THEM as a “big deal”? Your country is suffering, and it’s just beginning. Glad you don’t think that’s enough for you to bother changing anything.
There are layers of great men and women standing between you and economic ruin, not to mention physical ruin, and you don’t see THEM as a “big deal”? Your country is suffering, and it’s just beginning. Glad you don’t think that’s enough for you to bother changing anything. Did 9/11 bother you this much?
For a whitetail? Hell no. But if it was mid-September and I had an elk tag, absolutely.
Deertick, there's an incredible amount of self-righteousness in your posts. Get over yourself and do your f---ing job.
Jeez, you're a regular here. Why the Hell are you talking crap on people that are cut from the same cloth as you are? Ever see active duty USMC patronizing people state side while they're fighting abroad? Did you sign up for this shit? Yes. So own it and git r done.
I live in CA and these Bassturds are talking about shutting down the lakes for fishing. Yes, they just lock the gate and walk away and nobody has access. Never needed them their in the first place. Wishin it was huntin season.. uurrgghh PS- I'm goin surf fishin instead.. haha I showed them
What if you felt fine, today, and as far as you knew, had not been exposed to anyone that had tested positive, or even shown symptoms. But you lived in a high risk area, say the north east (NY/NJ/CT) and were driving to a midwest state where you would certainly come in contact with folks that were far less likely to have been exposed? Would you go? Or how about this; lets say you are a farmer in rural Kansas and I'm your buddy who you see once a year, every November, when I drive out from New Jersey. Are you standing on the porch this year, waiting to give me a big hug when I arrive?
Would you do it during the middle of flu season?
Deertick, How do you identify "great men"...… Great men pursue life in spite of circumstance and improve situations in the face of adversity. They do not take action that forces society to a lowest common denominator in the hopes that it can protect them from consequence. They also have a demonstrated ability to think through situations and make intelligent decisions ……..instead of subjecting themselves to the whims of emotional distress.
Busta— I say keep them the heck away from northern Missouri! All invites are off until further notice.
Denali, WOW, that is well said.. I may have to use that.. Thanks
Would you have gone in the past years, when 10-60,000 people died from the flu in the USA? Hell yes I’d go.
61,000 people died last year in the US from the flu. Where was all the pandemonium then? Imagine last year if the media reported nightly on flu deaths and it totaled 61,000. They can create hysteria and they thrive on it.
I am self-employed, who is it that's standing between me and economic ruin?
Looks like I touched a nerve ... look, from what I'm seeing, there is a lot of work to do ... protecting the elderly, protecting healthcare workers. School is out nearly everywhere -- nurses, physicians, and everyone in healthcare needs childcare. Elderly need groceries, and need to avoid exposure. And our healthcare system does not need the added stress of increased exposures. Our president has asked for help. These are not normal times.
Comments like "it's no big deal" are simply way out of line. In NY, at least one facility is using one ventilator for two patients. I'm not recommending panic, I'm recommending preparation and compassion for those at risk, and mitigation efforts.
"Vacation" when my community needs me doesn't seem like a priority. YMMV. And if you think you're not needed, you're not looking.
Deertick, i'll buck the trend here and say THANK YOU for what you do! Just like saying thanks to the armed forces who put themselves in harms way so the rest of us don't have to. All this hypothetical b.s. doesn't help. Don't ask what others would do to justify something that obviously you're on the fence about.
My wife is a RN and volunteering for extra shifts to help test patients and assist where she can not because it's her job and she signed up for it but rather knows she can help and should. Her status doesn't require a full time schedule and she does NOT have to volunteer.
Too bad others aren't willing to sacrifice even a little to help not spread the virus and it's always "what about me". Pathetic approach.
This is overblown, Precautions should be taken but enjoy the woods all you want. If you knew anything about the lungs, clean, fresh, air is the best thing for them. I'm working ER today and tomorrow with no concerns whatsoever. Been through worse BS than this a couple times in the last 14 years.
Thornton, are you implying that clean, fresh air will either prevent the spread or make you better if infected? I don't disagree it's being overblown, to some extent, but why not err on the side of caution for a few weeks? I believe I read where an ER doctor got the virus and died. To me, that would be a little concerning.
Russ - we are taking precautions as well. But the hype is crazy. There is a pandemic - and it’s not coronavirus, it’s fear. Precautions should be taken and I agree with the travel bans to China, etc... in an attempt to reduce the spread. It’s the mass hysteria that bothers me. Like I said 61,000 people died in the US alone last year from the flu - where was all the concern then?
I answered I'd go simply because I own land in Tennessee. Wouldn't be in contact with anyone can get there with under a tank of gas. My business is closed due to the bans. Why stick around?
No such thing lol but it will definitely distance you from others. The lungs are damp, hot organs that naturally attract attract pathogens either viral or bacterial. This Covid eventually kills people basically by causing respiratory distress due to a form of pneumonia. Camping out in a small dwelling or room can only exacerbate the decreased air flow through the lungs. I suspect this is happening frequently in Italy due to their small confines. Not to mention, this virus has a 2-3% kill rate on folks over 60 years old. Nothing is mentioned about their health history in the report China released. If you have impaired lung function from smoking or chronic lung problems, you will be at very high risk just like with any other virus.
Man deertick, my much better half is an RN screening people everyday and in contact with those impacted. She isn't whining about it, she's just doing her job and hoping she can get time off to go turkey hunting. Same thing with a lot of other people. We're doing all of the things you listed in your post and I still plan to go turkey hunting and I'm not going to feel guilty about it for even one second.
Interestingly enough, I was given this letter today as soon as I walked into work. It is a martial law passport to be presented with hospital ID
Old School, I agree whole heartedly on your post. Small exception is we have a flu vaccine but yet many still die and we seem to take that in stride but the U.S. doesn't have Covid-19 vaccines yet. My Dad had a lung transplant 5 years ago and has MS and almost 80, I'm going the fear route with him only because I'd like to have him around a while longer knowing his days are already numbered.
Highlife, I don't disagree with your logic and likely won't come into contact with anything even if filling up your truck. I'm just staying close to home for a few weeks and hope it's better by April 6 when turkey season opens in OK. If I were going to an outfitter with many clients or a group hunt, I may reconsider but it'd just be me on the property.
Enjoying the woods is great... traveling from areas of high risk to areas of much lower risk is a big reason we are in this mess. Of course this thing is overblown, and the media is taking it all the way to the bank, but comparing flu virus to COVID-19 which has somewhere in the vicinity of 10+ times mortality is just kind of ignorant.
There a big difference between traveling out of state, staying in a hotel, lodge, or friends place, shopping in their local grocery stores, and meeting people, versus leaving home with the cooler full, stopping once for fuel, sleeping in a tent alone and interacting with no one.
Some common sense is in order.
We have to be careful that our reaction to the virus doesn't become more harmful than the virus its self.
In a heartbeat, but only if I had a great supply of toilet paper....... apparently that is the vaccine.
I do see folks running into walls with their skirts over their heads.... but that's just people. Humans are odd things.... enough running around on a razor's edge in normal safe times, this stuff is a big shove in the back when their shoelaces are already tied together....
The real despicable thing is the politicization of it. Again, some would have no standards at all if it weren't for double standards....... a special wing in hell being renovated for these people....
I don't want to pick on anyone in particular, but I wonder what would happen if guys like Old School took a little time to educate themselves on this a bit more. What if you learned that COVID-19 was actually estimated by many experts to be up to 24X more deadly (rate of fatality) than the flu, for example? Or that this virus has been estimated by experts to be at least twice as contagious as the flu? Or the biggest wild card; that you could carry it, and spread it without knowing you have it. Would you have the same reaction and make the same cavalier comparisons to the common flu in discounting the seriousness of whats happening now? These are the questions we are faced with when deciding on any non-essential travel right now, including our bow-hunting trips. I started this thread because I have a trip next month. But it's accidentally turned into a social experiment and the results are alarming.
“ but comparing flu virus to COVID-19 which has somewhere in the vicinity of 10+ times mortality is just kind of ignorant.”
And using that skewed stat is also wrong. If you’re going to use numbers, then compare “tested and confirmed” flu cases to death ratios. Like the Covid ratio you are using.
Or compare the “presumed” number of flu cases to the “presumed” (unreported) number of Covid cases.
In all likely hood, there will be just as many unreported or unconfirmed cases of Covid as there is flu cases which will bring the actual mortality rate to similar numbers.
You can also bet that very rich and powerful people are going to become even richer from the hype and fear.
Franzen - that’s part of the craziness. Here in the US the mortality rate is around 1.7% and that’s not of those that have it, but of those that have it so bad that they went to a Dr and tested positive. How many thousands have had it and recovered at home without ever going to the Dr? Some have said the only way they knew they had Covid-19 is because they were forced to be tested and tested positive. Just questions to ponder. I’m not saying the flu and covid-19 are the same thing, but the hysteria is beyond crazy.
You’re right Busta - I’m just an ignorant hillbilly spouting nonsense. Carry on in your hysteria my educated friend.
Might actually do you some good to let your emotions die down. Is this serious? Yes? So far less than 10,000 have died GLOBALLY. Last year 61,000 died in the US alone from the flu. What part of that statement makes me uneducated? Facts are a pesky thing you know.
It should be noted that some on here HAVE employees and many ARE employees.
Big difference
No. Hopefully I'm overreacting.
I agree the media is fueling some hysteria. I just dont want to be responsible for transferring something something potentially deadly to anyone else. Just not worth it to me. Tell its 2% or 4 %? That's still too much.
I'm staying home.
I work in Public Health... so I'm one of the "standing between " guys I guess. I say if you have the free time and you can minimize contact and not risk becoming a vector then Go. (EDIT 3/24/20 note, this comment and other subsequent ones I posted in an effort to stem the mindless panic have been met with vitriol. The general consensus seems to be that people want to panic. fair enough, continue with the stampede)
Your definition of "non essential travel" is not the same as mine.
There is nothing skewed about my stat. If you guys want to make up your own numbers that is fine, but I can only rely on reported numbers. CDC ESTIMATES an average mortality of 0.1% for flu in the US. The COVID-19 pandemic is most certainly a fluid situation, but the best info. we have is that the mortality is somewhere between 1% and 5%. It'll probably change in the coming weeks/months, as I suspect US mortality will be lower. The only assumption we can make is that the PERCENTAGE of unreported "standard" flu cases would be no different than the unreported COVID-19 cases, but that is literally just an assumption. BTW, Mitch I hope my above post was not too harsh, but one just simply cannot compare the raw death totals and say, "ah no big deal." I think it is obvious that the hysteria is overblown, but there is at least reason to be a little more cautious and vigilant.
Does anyone know the percentage of those that died , died in the hospital getting treatment?
those that died, were they once counted as part of those in the serious condition pool?
And what is the hospital treatment? Ventilator, O2 and IV? What else can they do or are they doing.
What I’m hearing from info is you are suppose to tough it at home? Don’t come in to see the doc unless you have extreme labored breathing? People are being denied virus testing because they don’t have “it” bad enough to warrant the precious test.
I’m not hearing a clearly themed message out there.
Sorry about my ramblings.... Asking for a friend.
Blessings to all of you!
I didn't realize so many bowhunters are doctors :) Watch FOX news on this there education of the facts are awesome. Doc Dave
Franzen - we agree. It’s not that covid-19 is no big deal and I’ve certainly never said or insinuated that. It’s the mass hysteria that the media is creating. If they treated the flu this way last year, we would have had the same pandemonium. As I stated earlier, Imagine all the media outlets tracking and reporting every single flu death in the US last year - all 61,000 of them.
Statistics are funny things, just ask that Sam Clemens guy..... tossing out stats like "between 1% and 5%" is about 500% swing if I took my shoes off and counted correctly. WAGs are all over the place.... and right now that's all they are, WAGs.
Maybe someday we'll miss the times you cough to cover a fart..... now you fart to cover a cough.....
Sure TD, I could just toss out a nice stupid number that doesn't mean anything like 2.34%. It's all about understanding what the numbers mean, and that yes there is a large potential for error for as many reasons as I can count, even with my shoes off. Still, anything close to 1% is 10x the sampling for the flu.
I think, from what I can gather trying to weed out the obvious bullshit, the death rate is higher than for the flu.
How much they probably dont really know. What is more concerning is the infection rate. Its higher. It spreads faster.
Which is going to lead to more sick people than our system can handle if we aren't careful. Too many too soon. And then we wind up like Italy.
That's why it is important to limit interaction and travel...
I look at the kids in Florida whooping it up on spring break and I understand why people are on edge....
The kids on spring break acting like this is no big deal is a huge embarrassment. If people don't take this seriously the world will watch as our health care system becomes overwhelmed. Yea, the media is pushing hysteria to sell news but this virus is significantly more deadly and serious than anything we've seen in our life time.
I don't see why you'd postpone a hunt though. Just pack all your food in a cooler and avoid contact with others. IF I lived in a highly concentrated area of positive cases or would be traveling to a highly concentrated area of positive cases, I'd likely find new plans.
With the way everything changes daily, I wouldn't leave my wife by herself to deal with it.
Not to beat a dead horse here - but look up global flu deaths annually and check them out - and they get virtually no news. Just saying. We are in panic mode, calling each other out, and how dare someone compare this to the flu, blah, blah, blah. Take a deep breath and look at the facts.
Would you be shocked if I said over 600,000 people globally can die from the flu in a year? And we don’t hear about it in hourly reports all through the flu season.
Doesn’t mean that this isn’t serious, but let’s get some perspective - this terrible killer virus killed about 4,000 people in China. Let’s get a grip here. Wash hands frequently and avoid large gatherings. And if you are sick, stay away from others. Enough said.
WRT a hunting trip, if it didn't involve airports and crowds I don't see how I'd have any greater risk going on a hunting trip than just in my normal day to day life interactions. We're still working,or I am. Still have to buy groceries, gas, etc. Those folks are still working as well. I'm hunting this weekend, or plan on it if I can get a pass a few hours from painting the house..... maybe it'll rain....
The spring break stuff is a bit different in that it's a large (and fairly "intimate") group of people. Granted, likely a far healthier group than your normal cross section of citizens, but a large gathering. Hunting by it's nature likely involves even less human contact than normal "civilian" life.
Who knows, maybe hand sanitizer is the new nose jammer.....
The corona virus is predicted to be 5...10...maybe even 20+ times more fatal than the flu. The Flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000 people annually according to the world health organization (WHO). Those same doctors and infectious disease experts that are reporting flu deaths upwards of 600k+ annually are the same ones telling us to take this more seriously.
Panic..don't panic that's up to you. Either way, the nation is shutting down temporarily to prevent infections. We should all be doing more than washing our hands.
These choices don’t just impact us as individuals. Folks looking to “John Wayne” this situation are also putting their loved ones and anyone else they contact at risk. The government is trying to slow the spike in cases so the medical system doesn’t get so overloaded and large groups of people die simply because they couldn’t get treatment. My MD sister-in-law says the hospitals in her area are already at full capacity and there are not enough ventilators for the current COVID-19 patients (never-mind additional spikes).
I’m also impacted personally. Have a hunt in Azerbaijan scheduled for the beginning of June. That trip is probably toast. My first thought was I’m absolutely going if there is any way possible. Now, in addition to the strong possibility of the USA halting international travel, I’m re-thinking — what about putting my family at risk, and what if I get sick and cannot leave Azerbaijan. Good luck getting back into the USA if you get sick abroad.
It's going to be a different world when we come out the other side of this. Hopefully, for the better but I have my doubts.
The entire state of California has issued a mandatory “stay-at-home” order now. So you left your wife and kids in CA and headed to the mid-west for your November WT hunt and you realize your family is now in lockdown in your home and you are 1500 miles away. Now what?
Educate yourself. Watch the attached podcast.
Family is on lockdown and I'm not with them. I'm buying a lottery ticket lol
If you hunt public land, wildlife expert JB Pritzker has already shut down all hunting in Illinois. The ONLY state in the midwest to do this. Paying full salaries to state employees for doing absolutely nothing. Political payback like this is also why the state is broke and I was forced to relocate. But on the bright side buck quality would finally improve due to a reprieve from the 3 month crossgun onslaught!
BTW - I work for the federal government and was given the option of staying home, but elected to go ahead with a week long business trip to Iowa. Along the way I've not seen one of Pritzker's Hyatt Hotels closed due to the virus. Only the public land woods. Apparently his wildlife management expertise has lead him to believe oak trees and grasslands are bigger breeding grounds for Corona-19 than his hotels??? Weird because several of the other midwest state DNR's are encouraging the public to utilize these open spaces as one of the few low risk options for families during this crisis. Go figure.
If, in the fall, we are still where we are or close, no, i'd not travel far to hunt. No where I'd have to get out and gas up to get that's for sure. I'm optimistic I'd survive, hopefully... but if I passed it to my parents (late 70's, who Ill only video chat or call on the phone for a long time to come given my wife is a provider and is directly in the line of fire), or other friends/people with comorbidities (high blood pressure, high blood lipids/cardiovascular disease, diabetes etc) I'd feel terrible. The deer can wait.
Flu deaths happen spread over a season, not over 6 weeks, and not as a new influx of deaths plugging a hospitals ability to work. EVEN when flu seasons are bad, some hospitals have periods where they are in crisis due to lack of equipment... but they can get it from other facilities or order it since it's available. Every other place on earth is in the same boat as us right now... so that's not likely happening any time soon.
The data on this is not a WAG. Suggesting over 200K data points is a WAG, frankly, is just inaccurate.
If you apply average flu infections and deaths in the US to this bug (IE, just say this bug has the same numbers as the flu), you have over a million deaths in the US per year. OVER a million deaths.
If you think this bug wont do that, remember that the flu infects just over 1 person per other person infected (1.4-1.6 pending source reviewed), this is 2.5-3... It's a LOT easier for this to infect the numbers noted in my last point than it is for the flu to do it.
Here are the numbers. For 1 person who gets the flu, if we use the rate of spread value then the progression of spread (in number of infected people) for 10 generations is this: 1, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, 5.1, 7.6, 11.4, 17.1, 25.6, 38.9, 57.7.
For this novel coronavirus it's this: 1, 2.75, 7.6, 20.8, 57.2, 157.3, 432.5, 1189.4, 3270.9, 8994.9, 24735.9
So, when you consider it's rate of spread in the community compared to flu, if you only go 10 generations out, you have 24,678, roughly, more people with COVID19 than the flu.
(All numbers from WHO/CDC or Johns Hopkins data)
Comparing a virus that can kill far more often than flu (FACT, not WAG) and infect far more people than flu (FACT, not WAG), in a very short period of time (FACT, not WAG) you have the potential for an absolutely epic crap show (See: China, Ita, Spa, etc...) for health care systems.
Keep in mind that the flu numbers are in place while we have vaccines and treatment options to manage cases... We have, at current, nothing to fight this. Some experimental stuff, and rapid vaccine development, sure... The experiments are, at best months long to validate and assure safety. So for at least several months we have zero population level tools to fight this (except staying away from each other). Ironically, if that tool works, and we dont plug the system and manage this as well as possible, people will look back and claim we blew up the economy for no reason, that it wasnt needed. That would be false. It would actually show the steps saved lots of people and helped health care manage this. People will still do it though, which is frustrating.
Is this going to wipe out the world and kill all of us? No. Not a chance. Is it going to impact all of us by knowing infected people, losing family or friends, and certainly by economically kicking our butts? Yes, yes it is.
Will we as a society get over it and move forward? Yes, we will. Steely American determination is at work in research facilities and hospitals as we type. Eventually it will trickle into everyone, that determination. And will will figure it out.
But this shouldn't be down played at all. It's absolutely a world level mega problem. We are all going to hurt from it... But in doing so, we will have the best chance of a steady recovery out of it as treatments/vaccines become available over the next 1-2 years, coupled with people having survived, thus increasing odds of herd immunity.
Last, when, at some point, a vaccine is available, for the love of all that is holy... Get the frigging vaccine! (Just in case there are any antivax folks reading this who now, I hope, understand the sort of things which vaccines have largely managed for the life spans of almost anyone reading this)
Quote from a news article about the reduction in air pollution over China and Italy:
”The country has some of the worst air pollution in the world, which is responsible for killing more than one million people annually. The United Nations estimates that globally, roughly four million people die each year because of air pollution.“
And Milan Italy is considered the most polluted area in Europe.
I get so confused with all this
Will - I understand you’re gathering facts and extrapolating expected deaths. Here’s a serious question. If millions here are going to die and you reference for us to look at China and Italy - how is it that China has under 100,000 cases and less than 4,000 deaths? Not picking a fight, it’s an honest question. I think there is a bunch of fear mongering going on. Is it serious? Yes. But I’m having a hard time following the thought process of a million Americans dying from this virus this year.
Yep. This ain't the Middle Ages, and this thing ain't the Bubonic Plague!
I got the flu shot in November. 4 weeks ago I got Influenza A. I still have a lingering cough from that. Do you think that isnt an inconvenience at the present time??
The 8 day bout of Influenza A wasnt something I would wish upon anyone... well maybe a few.
The Dr said the flu shot was only 45% effective this year.
Can you imagine what the 'typical flu' death rate would be if there wasnt a vaccination?
Old school - full agreement! Love your thinking - I'm being serious and I know that's hard to get via message boards. Seriously, you hit the key point.
China and the other couple countries that have stemmed the tide and managed to start getting SOME normal back have done a very similar thing.
They literally shut the country, or at least the region at hand, down. The degree to which, in this country, is impossible I suspect - basically putting the population on house arrest in some cases. They went as far as they could to shutting things down, thus creating time to better prepare, and to chase down all possible contacts for infected people to quarantine them. They also put broad scale testing of people into effect. S. Korea has done hundreds of times the tests we have in the US. Like over 200K more. They were testing people in the thousands a day when we couldnt test 50. That's not political, it's just what happened.
Frankly, the last SARS outbreak in the early 00's taught them how to deal with this sort of situation as well as possible, so they had the machinery and institutional knowledge in place and did the best they could with it.
So while they have had big numbers, they have managed it very well and reduced death's and healthcare system collapse via extreme social distancing, quarantines of infected folks, vigilant background searches for all positive peoples contacts and largely shutting things down for several weeks... With a population who did those things. (China also built temporary hospitals in less than two weeks which is completely crazy and amazing)
ITA (by reports) was less worried and seemed to not take social distancing seriously. They continued to have multi generational families together, eating out etc. And boom, the numbers game speed up to fast to control at all.
Singapore was crazy intense with isolating positives and back tracing folks to quarantine them - it worked and they had very few positives.
So, why did China not have 2 million positives in the past 8 weeks? Because they took a city that's not to different from NYC and closed it entirely. They closed of regions of the country. They extremely strictly implemented social distancing strategies in areas with minimal cases but also pretty much put other regions on house arrest.
They also tested massive numbers of people.
We are barely starting to test large numbers. Thus, over the next two weeks, even with people starting to really do the social distance thing, we are going to see massive increases in cases as it takes up to 2 weeks (most 5-6 days) for symptoms to occur. So, this thing has been spreading, it's all over... but it's barely been tested for. As we ramp up testing, numbers will blow up for a while. Probably a couple weeks. Then flatten or hopefully go down. But that assumes people do what worked in the only places anything has controlled it - being extremely vigilant with minimizing human to human interaction (in person).
When I see the kids on the news on south beach acting like this is baloney, I get so mad. We can, together, slow this thing. It's going to be tough regardless. Cats out of the bag at this point. But if we all work together, we can make it the better of several possible scenarios by quite a margin.
I've seen some people suggest we just let it run it's course and get it over with. When you look at the modeling on that, frankly, it's terrifying. Like, tens of millions dying and a longer shut down of the economy. This would simply be that due to the massive number of dead and deathly ill, health care would stand no chance. Have a heart attack - you die, there's no space in the inn for you. Stroke? same thing. Auto accident... bummer. So, as horrible as this is, we have to really lock things down and give as much space as possible to each other to try and buy time for better testing (so we can do stuff like S. Korea, China etc better and target hot regions for lock downs etc), for new treatments and maybe a vaccine eventually.
It's crazy times. Hopefully we can all work together to both save as many of us as possible, and to find the best path forward when at some point this is done.
Hopefully all the evidence is wrong, and it just goes away. I'd love that! But man... as of now, it's not looking likely.
Will, Yes I can confirm the Chinese government shut down everything even outside of Wuhan since mid-January. The wife and I were in central China, Sichuan & Chongqing Provinces. Although there were relatively few cases the citizens took it extremely seriously. Thousands wearing face masks and police took you away if not. Streets & buses were empty. Stores closed. Sichuan opera closed. Spring festival events cancelled. And we have had several family members harassed by neighbors for suspected unauthorized travel. All this was outside of Wuhan.
Glad we returned before air travel got crazy. Our January 31st return flight was 75% empty.
I almost got caught in the mess last Sat travelling. I masked up and had plenty of decon spray in 3oz bottles. Since I dont ride in back of aircraft any more. Folks were alittl surprised when I sprayed down everything in 1E 1F of my Boeing 777 masked up. Windows, ceiling, seats , overhead, tray tables, seat belts. Just glad no one was in from of me!
SF was purty empty. Honolulu was about normal but lots of folks trying to get back from far east. TSA I knew had to be infected. So deconed right in main isle after TSA screen. Everything to my underwear. Nashville was not crowded at all. Im in day 6 of my 14 days. Knockin on wood!
My feeling is they gonna shut her down by week out. Full stop for most locations.
Hang tuff Bowmen.
1st Rule of NBC warfare. Assume everyone and everything is contaminated until you decon it. You be good then.
RLTW~
K
here's a recent analysis that came through my work (Health Department) communication. Interesting stats, Interpret as you will:
"Most interesting is that on Tuesday Italy had 27,480 cases and 2150 deaths and as of right now they have 47,021 cases and 4, 032 deaths. South Korea on Tuesday had 8320 cases and 81 deaths and as of right now have 8652 cases and 94 deaths. At the onset of cases S. Korea was very proactiving and very strict on social distancing and closures. Italy was not they were very free with their social interactions. "
We can't/won't social distance forever. So the curve drops in a couple months and everyone comes out of quarantine to try to get back some sort of normalcy, try to go to work if they still have a job, try to get their business running again if they still have one. If there is no vaccine, it will just start to spread again. People aren't going to do this again. We are screwed without a vaccine.
Yep, Midwest ... we're going to need nerds in labs working overtime on this one.
The shame is how much this is going to hurt The Little Guy ... so easy for those in power to close down bars and restaurants. Not so easy for the people on thin margins and small business.
Overall, this whole mess really makes me reprioritize things ... Hunting? Yep, it's a huge part of my life. It's not as big as my community, though. And there'll be a lot of rebuilding. Who knows? I may be one of the things needing to be rebuilt.
Best thing you can do is continue to support those small business where you can. Drinking a beer ordered online from a local brewery and waiting for food from a locally owned restaurant to be delivered. If you are still working and getting paid try to help those who aren’t or who have reduced income. We’ll get through this if we help each other.
I just delivered some necessary groceries to my mom. She just turned 80. She been in her house since this started, but has a pantry full of staples. Put the groceries the garage and drove away.
Hardest part was not being able to give her a hug.
Right now my only concern is the health of my family, to answer the original post, I would not going to risk to bring anything home so I’m not going to be hunting, we need to be smart about it, Italy is the worst, and is not sign on slowing down because stupid people don’t follow the rules, 627 dead in the last 24 hours
Thats right Brotsky.
We went and supported folks today in town. Sent money and said “fare the well” as they closed tonite.
Im not a social nug. So, not a big change for me but for family is. Kinda had to give a Biological Decon/Contamination class. Yes, there were tears cuz they kept recontaminating clean stuff , but we are purty straight now. Was hard on them. Think now they rather stay out of public now because Decon is so damn hard. I actually went to Publix today to keep it correct.
Then showed family how to decon everything outside and themselves.
No need to fear anything if you keep distance and keep vigilant.
Hang tuff Bow men
K
Similar situation as Brad - parents almost 80 and Dad has health issues already so I don't want either getting out. Walmart to get them fruit and Vitamin water then left on front porch. Mom has a pantry full of canned goods and a freezer loaded with soups and such she's made. They're fine food wise. Think the main thing most will miss is social interaction - not necessarily touching/hugging but even just talking to someone outside of the house. Wish the government would consider increases to unemployment instead of sending out checks - the ones I've talked to who're not working are worried about paying rent. So, we give them $1000 and it goes right into the hands of the landlord who very likely is in much better shape financially to weather a downturn. Seems like that falls into the rich get richer plan to me. Stay vigilant - don't want to be an Italy or Spain.
Will,
Sound, sage thoughts. Thanks.
One bright note I told my college students before we closed the school down last week is that the virus seems to impact folks over 60 and has less impact on the young. That's great! Being 61, I have had a shot at life. The young deserve theirs, and they are our future.
Be well, this is a great nation and we will get through this together. Thank you to all of our health care workers!
I'm sitting in a triage tent reading this, and am amazed at the spectrum of responses. We're 150 miles north of NYC, the "epicenter" of Covid cases. At current rate of infection, I'm afraid it will be "hot and heavy" here in 2 weeks. I volunteered to shield my fellow providers as much as possible, even though I'm a 60+ year old male because it was the right thing to do. Because this is so new, and unknown, it's impossible to compare to anything. The closest I can think of is a forest fire. It moves fast and causes alot of damage and disruption. You can either watch it burn or get ahead of it and slow it down. If we do better with the latter, we can hunt knowing we made a difference.
Steff agreed!! I believe this thread is a good thing. Social distancing is what I do as a hunter anyway. When I big game hunt I hinestly hate to hunt with anyone else. I want to do my own thing and make my own schedule. As far as getting to my destination I will only need to stop and het fuel and I will do everything to limit my impact on others and myself by wearing a mask rubber gloves and washing both before and after stopping and fueling up. I will stay in my own RV so I should be ok and not effect anyone but me! Shawn
Fuzzy, what about when Fall rolls around again?
The public wild lands around my place were full of people walking their dogs, folks just out for a hike. All social distancing and participating in Forest Bathing as so many businesses and activity centers are closed. It was only 33 degrees. Common sense still needs to be part of the equation, follow CDC , NIOSH, OSHA, WHO guidelines but I'll be damned if I am prohibited from chasing, deer, fish, turkeys, etc. especially if I bring my own food, drink, don't have contact with other people. Gas pumps have outdoor delivery, don't need to go inside, almost all game registration is online now too. So hunting doesn't constitute much of an increase in exposure risk.
Fuzzy: citation desperately needed.
You can't back that up in any meaningful sense and have no business citing it like fact.
I've seen more people out walking our roads in our community in the last week than I've seen in the 28 years we have lived here. Guess people are trying to prevent going stir crazy and getting some exercise since all the gyms are closed.
Fuzzy, MERS is a corona virus. It's been hanging out in the desert where it gets hot for a long time. Doing just fine.
Deertick you are quite right. I have no business arguing public health issues on an archery website, carry on with your panic (other comments removed to avoid further strife)
Fuzzy...thanks for clarifying...I hope so too.
Argue all you want, Fuzzy ... but let's have some ground rules, like "You don't get to make things up." If you have evidence, explain it. Make the case. I'm all ears, and truly hope you're right, but I haven't heard anything convincing -- maybe you have.
As for "Panic" ... nope. That's not me. I am preparing for a large battle, though, prudently.
OK, I'll do your job a little; there are data indicating transimissability is highest at 40 degrees and low humidity, and that R0 decreases with humidity and temperature -- but the decrease is small. So, in a way, you are right that the virus is predicted to decrease "contagiousness" by a small amount in the summer. But keep in mind, the people making that prediction are the same ones recommending extreme measures now -- so how do you "like" some of their work and and not the rest?
Zim - There you go. Nailed it. Physical/social (or whatever you want to call it) distancing only works when most people do it. If the virus has no home (humans) because we stop giving it opportunities to spread, we:
1.) Take heat off the maxed out health care system resulting in saved lives.
2.) Reduce the rate of new infections.
3.) Can ultimately reduce the virus's presence in the community, thus buy time to get caught up on medical supplies from PPE to nasal swabs (which are running really low now - hard to do the test if you dont have the tools to do the test)
4.) By reducing presence in the community, it's a LOT easier as we get back to things, to pick up on a positive test, trace back all contacts and quarantine folks, reducing risk of spread in the community. This has worked awesome with COVID19 in Singapore and S Korea.
5.) None of those good things can happen if we are in close proximity. So as much as this completely sucks (and it does in a million ways), as a nation, we need to work together to curb this beast as well as possible. And in this case, that means staying home as much as possible. Sort of the opposite of how every American wants to help - which is to get up, mobilize, and get out and after the challenge. Which I think makes this so hard.
Fuzzy, I'm not seeing stuff on CDC/WHO about stability of SARS-CoV2 in temps and humidity. But there is a proverbial poo ton on there. If you remember where you were on the site, could you link it and post it.
Every now and then I hear that, but then ponder how it is that cases in places like Australia are popping... Even ESP... I mean, it was northern Italy that's had the worst death rate, and that's a cooler region of ITA... But how is it starting to pop in warmer places (Africa, Brazil, etc) if it isnt stable in warmer temps, I wonder? I'd love to see temps help reduce transmission (IE, get the Ro down) given it's spring in much of the US... That would give us time over the summer to prepare for the possible second wave next winter...
Lots of empty ER rooms here in Kansas. For the most part, people are only coming in with true emergencies. The EP lab cancelled all their elective procedures today and sent their staff to ER for some thing to do. I still have yet to see a covid patient or do a covid test.
I would rather be out in the woods in my camper hunting than sitting at home. What better way to practice social distancing than sitting in a tree stand or hanging in my saddle. If there wasn't still three feet of snow on the road going in I would go there now! ( private land 30 miles from home)
