Some draws start in August.
This could cripple our healthcare system. Hopefully it doesn’t.
Your bold statement of mentality seems to imply you are privy to some information the rest of the general public hasn't been given. Maybe you have. I don't know. But, I'm sure interested in how realities of what we have seen so far are remotely considered as an oxymoron. I don't claim to know everything or, even much at all. However, you imply to know more about this then most, why not educate? I'm all ears Tembry.
And yes, Covid is and will be a very serious disrupter even if the health risks turn out to be minimal. But we will also not curl up into little balls, sucking our thumbs, quietly sobbing instead of living our normal-as-possible lives.
A couple of clarifications/corrections. 1) An error on my end: 45 million global deaths would be the most from a pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918, not since the Middle Ages. Apologies for the mistake. 2) "The Holocaust" can refer to either the 6 million Jews killed by Hitler (that's how I use it here) or everyone he killed (around 17 million total). 3) WWII lasted 6 years in Europe, but 12 years in Asia, if you treat the invasion of Manchuria as its starting point (most do).
BTW - I work for the federal government and was given the option of staying home, but elected to go ahead with a week long business trip to Iowa. Along the way I've not seen one of Pritzker's Hyatt Hotels closed due to the virus. Only the public land woods. Apparently his wildlife management expertise has lead him to believe oak trees and grasslands are bigger breeding grounds for Corona-19 than his hotels??? Weird because several of the other midwest state DNR's are encouraging the public to utilize these open spaces as one of the few low risk options for families during this crisis. Go figure.
Shutting everything down is not the answer. At least most can agree on this. Use practical virus avoidance wisdom - wash hands frequently, avoid large gatherings, if sick, go home and stay away from others so you don’t infect them.
Truth be told nobody but God knows how this all ends. Let’s at least go through this with a rational mind.
The gene pool could use a little chlorine anyway, truth be told...and throughout history 100% of ALL humans have died. Talk about " unacceptable"...lol
Be smart, but don't be chicken little, IMO. I am not doing draws in quite a few states because I'm not spending the money...may not even have a job in 6 months if this keeps up...
”The country has some of the worst air pollution in the world, which is responsible for killing more than one million people annually. The United Nations estimates that globally, roughly four million people die each year because of air pollution.“
And Milan Italy is considered the most polluted area in Europe.
Another article claimed that 99% of the deaths in Milan had underlying health concerns due in part to pollution, smoking and age.
I like your optimism, LINK. But I'm not convinced. The markets will come back, they always do. But, the vast majority of much smarter investors than myself are predicting this will be at least a 2 year turn-around, and probably longer.
Oh well, wealth is all relative, I guess.
Agree on the fast track to 30,000.
Tin foil hats don’t belong to those worried about this wreaking havoc, they belong to those believing this is a political stunt to hurt the current administration. Is the media making this worse? Sure, when have they made any situation better? That doesn’t negate the fact that this problem is real.
Figgered Im old enough, just fix my IRA remove the risk. Glad I did. Just gotta keep the China Virus off me.
Be hunting in the high country soon.
I'm on the mailing list for an outfitter in MT. I got an email from them today and they are still doing business as usual at this point.
TEmbry- couldn't agree more. Well said and worth repeating.
I dont think it was in response to your post, at least the way i read it.
This financial mess is hurting the "Little Guy" ... Those who work for government, or other large employers, might see this as an inconvenience. But if you are the guy trying to make it in the restaurant industry, well, you are SOL. And if you're not "that guy", take time to think a little about that guy, and make plans to do something to help out.
Give mine to the little guys as you call them.
I guess Trump socialism is ok now. HH said socialism was evil now he promotes it. Bailouts are bad until you need them. COVID is turning the world on its head.
Seriously, good on you HH for saying you will give $$ to others who need it.
I got my tags too. Super excited about elk hunting this year. I’m going unless the law says I can’t.
Glad you brought it up.
Why would you bring up something to divide Americans under a State of Emercency.
Your really not putting politics before our fellow citizens of the Republic?
I tried here about 4 times to let our boen in Jan about what was coming.
Bowsite censor it.
Almost everything i said has happened.
A buddy Ranger from Nicaragua is safe home last week cuz i told him 21 Mar 20 they would cut flights. They cut them tonite.
I really hope my fellow bowmen did not listen to these BS Sat radio financial asswipes!
Agreed now is not the time for division.
What I think is probably going to draw wrath from the wise ones commenting on the dumb ones on this post. But, I'm going to say it anyways. I think anyone suggesting this is a new revelation are the dumbest among us. I think anyone here that believes China is being honest about how long they have fought this is among the dumbest humans alive. And, I think you have to have dingle berry brains if you think this country wasn't one of the first to be heavily affected. No other country world wide has the number of citizens traveling to and from China more then America.
So, in case a few of you are to dumb to understand what I am saying; this has been here a while. It has been mis-diagnosed all along. Or, accompanying other illnesses hiding itself. It is undoubtedly a bad virus and has taken its toll on certain countries. But, to believe that we are only entering the danger zone created by this virus seems naive to me. At best. Am I right? I don't know?
What I do know is this was seized as an opportunity by political blowjobs in the media and politics to do just as suggested. Does that mean it isn't a threat? Nope. So, whether I am right about how long this has been here will likely never be known. But, I do know this isn't Italy. I do know that every one who seems to be scared, are basing it on assumptions we simply don't know to even exist outside of artificial statistics based on another countries suggestion. No one I know is dismissing the importance of caution concerning risk factors. And, the only people here totally talking about this with nothing but a broad bias, are the ones unwilling to admit the realities we do know about this.
One more tidbit. If the scare of this gets any worse, you are going to see a pandemic that will make this pneumonia seem mild. Trillions lost. People unable to buy food and necessity's in certain places will start to do the nthinkable to get it. At rates that make Covid 19 seem like child's play. So, while we have supposedly only had 250 or so people die here from the virus, we had better get a grip on the emotions surrounding this topic and act like we have some sense. While there is still an opportunity. to do so.
I asked my gf today, "If I had told you what we would be going through today two weeks ago, would you have believed me?" Her answer, "No", as I'm sure most of us would have answered. Can't imagine what we'll be going through 2 weeks from today.
Annony Mouse's Link
Unlike most of the experts who have posted (much disinformation) from media reporting (which much is their interpetation), Mike is a virologist and involved. Some good information in his posts and he is has been providing answers to questions posed.
Hopefully, the Bowsite censors will not delete this information as they have done on other threads.
Shutting this economy down should be a bigger concern I believe over a small percentage of affected people and then an even smaller percentage of that dying.
We are hurting ALL 350 million god the population.
We are burning down the house to kill the mouse.
move those posts here for everyone to see readily. (Mike's that is not more CT Live Hunts)
True I think its been in western Canada & USA for awhile. As to WV tale I haven't a clue? I do like his salt however. I do know those who had the power and $ of old are going to get crushed and if you keep your head, stay clean, help your fellow American brother you'll come out OK.
Some folks were made for the fire and the fight, while others were not.
Here is one of my first responses that I actually put on social media as a favor to a friend who had alerted me about how much panic seemed to be setting in:
I’m posting this as there continues to be an unhealthy level of misunderstanding about the comparisons between the H1N1 pandemic and the current COVID-19 pandemic. There is a chart that has been floating around for the past few days attempting to lend perspective between the current COVID-19 pandemic and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic; though well-intentioned it is dangerously misleading; it’s truly only meaningful when placed in proper context. To keep things simple, if you determine the two CFR's (case fatality rate, derived by taking the total number of deaths from a disease over the total number of people known to be infected with the disease) the CFR for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was 0.205% while as of 3/13 the US CFR from COVID-19 was 2.56% (41 confirmed deaths out of 1,600 confirmed cases).
Another key distinguishing difference is the R0 (pronounced R nought) of infectivity rate of the two diseases; for influenza it is 1.3 while for COVID-19 it has been estimated to be between 2.0-3.0. The R0, or infectivity rate refers to the number of people who can be infected by an infected host; for COVID-19 the R0 means that it is between almost 2 to almost 3 times as infective as influenza (which goes to the questions about why more cases of COVID-19 in a shorter period of time.)
Another distinction that needs to be clarified is the difference between mortality and death rate (or case fatality rate to be more specific). The mortality rate of a disease is determined by taking the total number of people known to have died from a disease and dividing that number by the estimated population at the mid-year point, and is usually expressed as deaths per 100,000. On 3/5 WHO estimated a mortality for COVID-19 of 3.4% and as of 3/13 the CFR was 3.7% (5,088 confirmed deaths out of 137,445 confirmed cases). As we are early in the pandemic and the number of confirmed cases will grow significantly as we have expanded our testing capabilities I expect the CFR will decrease and be less than the mortality rate (given the much higher percent of infected patients that will be asymptomatic or only suffer a mild, upper-respiratory tract infection from which they will recover).
The last point is particularly significant as it is completely understandable that many in the general public will mistakenly assume (and the press is definitely not helping alleviate this misunderstanding) that an increase in the number of confirmed infections is equivalent to an indication of an inadequate response to this pandemic. As we continue to expand testing (initial, confirmatory testing was largely centered on patients not only known to have the infection but the majority of those patients being in the severely symptomatic cohort) to people who have been known to have been exposed to infected patients and/or who may have some clinical symptoms that cannot be ruled out as other upper respiratory tract infections we will see a significant increase in the total number of diagnosed infections. Again, temper this reality with the knowledge that 80% or better of those diagnosed as being infected will either remain asymptomatic or will only develop mild upper respiratory issues.
Now for the good news; the R0 is a statistical measure of what can happen, not necessarily what will happen. The key to containing a pandemic is to break the infective cycle; travel bans, cessation of large gatherings, etc all work to mitigate the spread as does increasing awareness of basic preventative measures we can all take.
While we should be as informed as possible and duly concerned what is out of balance is the hyperbole played out in the printed and televised media daily; this is counterproductive and leaves the public more misinformed than informed.
Be vigilant, be careful but also be calm; this too shall pass.
Update on SARS-cov2 Outbreak:
In my post this past Sunday I tried to summarize where we were as a country both in terms of the current state of infected persons and how we were moving quickly to ramp up testing capacity, explore treatment options and develop an effective vaccine.
There have been as I cautioned then a significant increase in the number of cases diagnosed in the US; this is a by-product of what is very good news; we have significantly increased our testing capacity as our 2 largest national reference laboratories (Quest & LabCorp) have the ability to perform 10,000 tests per day and expect to increase that to 20,000 tests per day by the end of the month. While this will result in that significant increase in diagnosed infections we will be able to isolate asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients to mitigate further spread and we will begin treating those whose symptoms are more serious.
On that front we have seen some individual antiviral compounds and “cocktails” employed that have produced good results, and further studies and refinements will only improve this capability. On Tuesday Phase 1 Clinical Trials were begun for a vaccine and, God willing, we may have a safe, deliverable vaccine in approximately a year’s time, significantly ahead of the normal timeframe for vaccine development.
In the US the CFR (case fatality rate) has fallen and is now approximately 1/3 of the rest of the world (1.5% vs 4.3%). Even more encouraging is the news regarding the percent of diagnosed and actively treated patients who are manifesting “serious” symptoms; in the US (0.6% vs 5.4% for other countries with China having the highest % of serious cases at 31.3%).
To be sure we still have quite a ways to go; we will probably have a much sharper picture of how far along we are towards stabilization by the end of April. What should be comforting is that we are seeing signs that are encouraging that the steps we’ve taken have been effective and we should be confident that we will emerge from this cloud intact.
Continue to follow standard precautions, exercise good judgment and above all, remain calm.
My very best wishes for the continued good health of all my friends and their loved ones on this forum; God bless and keep you.
Grey Ghost's Link
The thing about expressing your thoughts, is so many take the opportunity to chastise you if it doesn’t align with the norm. I might be as wrong on the idea this has been here for a bit. But, I don’t let Symantec’s rule my train of thought when common sense says something else.
Ryan, are you able to pass gas without a science explanation?
And, thank you Mike for all the great info.
If you, or others you know were sick with similar symptoms, it was NOT COVID-19. There is a ton of credible scientific data out there disproving your gut feeling.
No disrespect to anyone but intuition does not replace science.
Nice one WV. It actually did make me laugh. I don’t need a science explanation to pass gas as I wear scent lok underwear so it never happens because it’s undetectable.
On a serious note, I’ll take science over intuition during a pandemic. Call me crazy.
A person DID NOT need to have been in Wuhan in 2019, only in contact with some who had.
The one thing political about any of this is the dumbass impeachment crap early this year when preventive measures could have been more earnestly explored and discussed. We would already be at a point today where we hope we will be come May.
Im in day 7. Nuttin yet.
HDE- The claim was that it might have been in the U.S. before December 2019. You got any evidence that it was? Something the says all of our experts/doctors are wrong that it was not in the U.S. before January. What’s your point HDE?
Nobody can really prove or disprove if it was or was not here in 2019. Jan 5, 2020, by the way, is Dec 28, 2019 for the purposes of incubation for this bug. Not all carriers know they have it.
That's my point. Damn, you must be an engineer...
"However," he said, "in the U.S., it is very unlikely we had cases in November or December, given what we know about the course of the disease and its later symptoms. The first cases in the U.S. were, in fact, travelers that brought the virus from China or other countries."
Vox recently reported that an analysis of the coronavirus’ genome by Tanja Stadler, a professor of computational biology at ETH Zurich and a molecular epidemiology expert, found that the virus emerged in humans in China in the first half of November 2019.
"The widespread hypothesis that the first person was infected at an animal market in November is still plausible," Stadler said in a statement. "Our data effectively rule out the scenario that the virus circulated in humans for a long time before that."
HDE- If you want to argue that COVID-19 was in West Virginia before December then take up with the doctors that say it wasn’t. It is FALSE.
Annony Mouse's Link
Additionally, I came across this interesting article (The Diamond Princess, a floating Chinese Virus palace, provides suggestive data). In this actual "test tube" environment, it seems that the majority of those exposed either did not get infected by the Convid-19 virus or did and did not show any symptoms. Interesting numbers.
All non essential air travel is suspended today.
I love when people tell me what I knew 45 days ago. It's like reading George Orwell's 1984 and the Memory Hole. Tell me Cpt's Obvious, Please. So, I can file it in the Memory Hole. Just like a LT telling me our 40 man Platoon is decisively engaged by two AFG chit birds with a RPK 800m away. Well thank you LT. Now get yer ass over there and kill those two terds while supress them and put a Gustov up his cake hole.
If you listened to DJT closely. He gave us 15days Sun or Monday. Get your stuff in one sack cuz when that time is up the fuk fuk is over and the real belt tightening will occur. Yesterday world is over. Learn to live in the environment you have fight and survive in now.
Fare the well Brothers of the Bow.
Poland put travel controls on Germany NE Border. The big early crops are soon to come in . The Pols are not going to come for the season. Hmmmnn Merkel says she has a plan. . . . She is going to pay the Afghans, Syrians, Turks, Iraqis Morrocans, Lybians, and African refugees, eyc. Is she really brain dead? They will not harvest a damn thing unless under gun point. Tone deaf and commonless in sense. Merkel. . . she better have a exit plan or the Germans will seal her fate, It may to her dismay look like Clara Petacci's .
Airports in Hawaii are still operational. Visitors to Hawaii are strongly encouraged to postpone their vacations for at least 30 days.
And some even apologized, ranger.
We will get thru this. We beat the Kaiser, We beat the Fascists, we beat the Hammer and the Sickle. We will beat this. But as with all things won thru our toil and treasure they come with a price.
Our victory here, now with this China Plague will likely mean we and our allies will have more work to do that will be just as tough as this.
The best thing ine can do is make decon liquid you can spray in a fine mist.
Keep a qt srayer in all cars and get a big one for house. Going to pick up another presuure tank tomorrow for large decon. Plenty of good chemicals stil out there that’ll stomp Wuhan out in several minutes.
Bleach and water will work with a few small drops of sodium hydroxide , just has to sit a little longer than high powered chemicals.
Take appropriate decon measures as needed for your daily exposure.
Fare the well men of the Stick and String
So far there have been 348 deaths and 26,859 positive results for a mortality rate of 1.29%. The mortality rate goes down almost every day now that they are ramping up testing. Obviously there are far more people than 26,859 that have coronavirus In the US because many are asymptomatic. This would increase the denominator which would in turn lower the calculated mortality rate even further.
The NBA tested 8 teams (120 players) and found 10 of them to be positive for coronavirus. Most of these guys were showing absolutely no symptoms at all. The only reason we knew these guys were positive is because they got a random screening for security purposes. Many people who have mild or no symptoms will not seek out testing.... thus making it seem like the mortality rate is higher than it actually is.
JL posted earlier in the thread that the flu has killed between 22,000-55,000 this year in the US in 157 days. If we take the middle of that estimate and say 38,500 people died then on average 245 people a day died of the flu. That happened every day for 5 and a half months and no one blinked an eye, because it was the flu and not some scary new disease we have never heard of.
We need to take practical measures to protect the most susceptible in our society... those over 60, those with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, lung disease and hypertension. Crashing the economy and putting millions out of work with these shelter in place and mandated closures for everyone is an extreme measure that will cause undue harm to many more than the virus ever could.
We need better data to determine the true infection rate in the population to make informed decisions instead of letting politicians wreck our economy as they try to outdo each other with increasing levels of restrictions. If you are scared, sick, or have pre existing conditions then stay home. The rest of us need to get back to work and live our lives.
Now I’m wondering if I should put in for AZ javelina, because they ran out of leftovers for my area in January, this year.
According to News this AM, Fed EX is planning to fly all sorts of stuff into NY state this coming week. It will sure be interesting to see if Governor Cuomo gets the resources to do enough testing to reach those that have had it and beat it. Anyways, Sounds like there is a good plan in place to deal with it. NY city is going to get hit hard for sure if people keep acting like there is nothing to fear.
You should definitely put in for AZ javelina...but make sure you wear you N95 mask and PPE
You should definitely put in for AZ javelina...but make sure you wear you N95 mask and PPE
John MauldinIt’s Happening Going to War We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession What Will It Take? How Things Are Going to Change and What We Should Do We Can Do This Personal Thoughts
In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid.
Click here for video.
At the other end of the beacons, no one is sure whether the very reluctant king will honor the ancient, thousands-year-old treaty. Then you see the doubt on his face turn to firm resolve as he gives the order: “And Rohan will answer.”
Now, in answering, Rohan wasn’t simply helping its ally. The enemy was coming for them, too. They were very aware of that fact. Saving Gondor was the best way to save Rohan.
Today in the real world, we also face a dark, implacable, powerful foe. It is a microscopic virus that we now know is a threat, a very serious one. We in the United States have just seen the beacons. The warning travelled not just a few hundred miles but around the world: from China and Korea, to Italy and Spain, and now here.
The beacons are lit. How will we answer?
It’s Happening Back in late January, the initial Wuhan outbreak finally caused the Chinese government to impose travel restrictions, close factories, and so on. Over here, some of us immediately knew that would mean supply chain problems. I sent some reports on it to Over My Shoulder members in early February. (Members can read them here and here. Quite interesting in hindsight.)
Later in February, recalling my patented “bug hitting the windshield” metaphor, I said, “It’s beginning to look like virus COVID-19 could be the windshield against which the global economy meets its maker.” We can now strike the “beginning” part of that statement. It’s happening.
I was initially hopeful the virus would spread slowly enough to get us into summer, when it should recede and then we would have a vaccine fairly soon. Neither is happening. I’m now convinced, as I said in my midweek letter that we could lose untold tens or hundreds of thousands of lives, even with drastic action. Without that action, the toll could be millions. As of Friday noon, it appears that we are going to take at least most if not all of the very necessary painful actions.
In that update I referred you to two links. If you didn’t read them already, please do.
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now Sobering Prediction If you are someone who is skeptical of scientists, the media, and so on… I’m with you. But this time I am listening because these same experts have been right.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb is not some crazed liberal. He is a physician and public health expert who was appointed FDA commissioner by President Trump. And he, along with Trump NSC biodefense advisor Luciana Borio, wrote, in The Wall Street Journal on January 28 (!) that we should Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic. Then they wrote again on February 4, saying we must Stop a US Coronavirus Outbreak Before It Starts. Many other experts said the same.
Note, both of those were on the reliably conservative WSJ editorial page. This is not a mainstream media hoax. It is not an anti-Trump plot. It is not clueless professors trying to get funding. This is real and they have been right. You can ignore them if you want. I choose to listen.
I’m saying this strongly because as recently as this week, I’m still hearing from lots of readers who don’t get it. I won’t give examples.
The US lost 2,996 lives on September 11, 2001. We thought that was enough to go to war. And all the experts say the coronavirus will likely kill many more than that, just in the US. Would some of them have died soon anyway? Sure. But so would some of the 9/11 victims. We didn’t use that fact to minimize their loss and we shouldn’t minimize coronavirus deaths, either. This is not a figment of the imagination. It is tragically, fatally real.
Some want to compare COVID-19 to the swine flu. Let’s look at the facts.
The data shows that, at this point in the outbreak, COVID-19 is spreading faster than H1N1 and is killing many more of its victims. This is not nonsense. It is fact.
We don’t know a lot about the Chinese government’s internal deliberations, but I feel sure they saw curves very much like these. At first, it hid its head in the sand and tried to hide the outbreak from the world as well. Then that became impossible. That is why it took what looked to foreigners like insanely harsh containment measures and rushed to build temporary hospitals.
I don’t think Xi Jinping did that because he is a great humanitarian. He saw a serious threat to China’s people and economy, and possibly his own regime’s survival. So he acted decisively and still saw thousands die.
Here in the US there’s every reason to think our experience could be far worse than China’s without immediate action. It is not confined to just one city; we have large outbreaks on both coasts and more popping up everywhere. All 50 states now have cases. Worse, we are reacting much later than China did. I am convinced that a rigorous national lockdown and social distancing is the only way to stop this from reaching epically tragic proportions. Yes, it will have a huge economic cost. We just have to collectively pay it. The alternatives are worse.
Going to War Coronavirus is both a public health problem and an economic problem, and the two work against each other. The measures we must take to save lives necessarily mean shutting down large parts of our consumer-driven economy. People are losing jobs and businesses are losing revenue.
Does that mean we simply ignore the virus and let people get sick and sometimes die? No, that won’t work, either. Our healthcare system can’t handle what would happen. It would collapse and be unable to help anyone with anything.
We need to sustain the economy for however long it takes to beat down the virus. That’s going to mean massive fiscal stimulus spending—multiple trillions of dollars’ worth. We are going to have to do for everyone the kind of things we have long done for natural disaster victims—emergency grants, subsidized loans, exemptions from rules, and more.
How will we pay for it? There are several ways but they all involve massive government debt and deficits that will shock us. We’re going to figure it out because we have no choice. The good news is, we’ve done this before. We fought and won World War II on a massive pile of debt.
Chart: Congressional Budget Office
Those who experienced the world war years as adults are mostly gone. We know their stories, though. Americans faced their common foe together, with shared sacrifice. Widows bought war bonds with their savings. Common goods were rationed. Every able-bodied male not needed for industry or farming was in uniform, and many women, too. Everyone sacrificed, and it worked.
We must sacrifice this time, too. It’s going to be inconvenient, expensive, and aggravating. We will exceed that World War II peak in the debt chart several years sooner than projected—possibly even this year. I don’t like it, either. But we have to do it.
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance. It is going to explode. Let’s look at this data from homebase. A stunning 39% drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the US just in the last 10 days. Is there anybody who thinks that’s not going to increase?
Quoting from homebase:
Many of the hardest-hit cities—San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, New York—showed steep declines last week that align with the rise in coronavirus cases. Seattle was the first to see significant impact early last week, but other cities quickly caught up. The introduction of forced closures and shelter-in-place orders has furthered the slowdown. San Francisco, Boston, Pittsburg, New York, and San Jose currently have the greatest reduction in hours worked, down by more than 50% in each city on Tuesday.
3 out of 5 workers in San Francisco did not go to work last week. It will get worse. The reduction in work hours there was 64%. Middle America cities are in the 40 to 50% range.
Mike Shedlock has been tracking government data on employment. You can read his entire take at the link, but extrapolating the loss of jobs would mean an unemployment rate of close to 12% and a U-6 rate of 39%. Even if he is wrong by half, which I don’t think he is, that unemployment number ALREADY is staggering. We are literally down well over 10 million jobs and going to 20 million.
I know that Amazon is hiring 100,000 workers and giving them all a raise. Good on Jeff Bezos. Seriously. But that is only a fraction of 1% of the jobs we are losing. We the People, the government collectively, should step in to help the remainder of those people. The coronavirus is not their fault.
Sidebar: A hotel exec friend who runs 125 hotels has let 90–95% of the staff go. Literally tens of thousands. There are 54,000 hotels in the country. Do the math. Another friend handles the backroom for 2,200 dentists. 80% have shut down as they can’t get the masks and other things they need. There are 100,000 dentists with an average employment of maybe 10 people. Minimum 500,000 employees, plus dentists, without income. Average income per employee is $50,000. Dentists are critical but they have to have the basic gear to do it.
There are literally hundreds of examples. Dear gods…
Nobody in their right mind, given what might happen this weekend (if the rumors are true), can possibly think these employment numbers will not get worse. These are not recession numbers. They are depression numbers.
Let me be clear. The US is facing a deflationary depression. One cannot have the economic impacts we are seeing and think they will magically go away when the virus does. That’s not how economics and business work.
I am not the first person to say it, but we need something like a Marshall Plan for the US. I recognize that Europe and the rest of the world are struggling too. I get it. But the entire world will go into a deflationary depression if we do not solve the crisis in the US. Hopefully an eventually strong US can help lead the world out.
I am calling for significant quantitative easing or whatever you want to call it. I get the irony in that. The Federal Reserve is largely responsible for where we are today, keeping rates too low for too long, and the government running deficits way beyond nominal GDP. These are bad things.
But we have to deal with the situation as it is today. And today, much of our country is under stress and wondering how they’re going to feed their families. How do they pay their rent? Electric bills? 100 other items? Some of us can individually help our family and friends, but collectively we need to step in and help everyone.
Grousing about bad policies and mistakes of the past doesn’t solve the problems we face today. There is no need to punish the average American for bad Federal Reserve policy that they had no control over any more than we should punish them for the coronavirus. Maybe when this is all over we can think about how we ensure better policy in the future.
What Will It Take? There’s no single perfect answer; we will muddle through this, making mistakes along the way but hopefully learning from them. Any way you look at it, the numbers will be staggering.
Spending even a few trillion dollars to protect everyone’s income during the lockdown period isn’t crazy at all. I think it is the best option available. And we need to do the same for our business so they will be there when we get through this. Not just big business, but every small business as well.
President Trump said the other day that they will help the airlines because the virus is not the fault of the airlines. Quite true. Even though they spent 96% of their profits on stock buybacks. We absolutely have to have the airlines functional when this is over. But perhaps for companies that used their money for stock buybacks, that aid comes with an equity kicker for taxpayers. Nonvoting equity to be sure. But if they ask us to socialize the risk while they spend money on stock buybacks, it’s only fair to expect a little in return. Asking for outright grants? Get real guys (unless it goes directly to employees who were laid off).
Hotels, cruise ships, microbreweries and restaurants, hair salons, and a hundred thousand other small businesses need to survive in order to hire people when we reach the other side. It’s not about whether some business is “mission-critical” or vital to the economy. It’s about all the jobs those businesses provide. To the worker, a job at a cruise company is no different than a job at an airline company. It’s their income and the way they support their family.
Of course, we have to be smart about how we do this. We also have to be fast. Speed trumps everything. I know there is great concern someone might get something they don’t deserve. We all need to get over that. Right now, speed is more important. We have to help as many as possible, as fast as possible. We can sort out the mistakes later, and recover any excess payments via the tax system.
Furthermore, while I cannot reveal my sources, I know for a fact that the unemployment websites of some states have crashed. They simply weren’t built to handle the volume of applications.
We should help people first and businesses later. For one thing, helping people will help businesses by restoring their customers’ confidence and spending power. Some businesses are hurting more than others. The travel industry, restaurants, and many service businesses are in the worst position because they can’t make up lost revenue. This lockdown period means revenue is lost forever to them.
As soon as possible, we should help businesses who agree to use the money to pay their employees throughout this crisis. They actually know who is working and needs the money. Perhaps rent forbearance for a few months in conjunction with loans to landlords?
What we absolutely must avoid, in my view, is creating even the perception that regular workers are saving Wall Street or wealthy people in general. That mistake in the financial crisis years is still haunting us.
Fortunately, we can save companies and jobs without rewarding executive incompetence. It’s really not hard. We can save our economy without turning socialist. That’s not hard, either. But it will be expensive. I won’t get into specific plans because they’re evolving so fast. I may not endorse everything the government does, but I strongly endorse doing something rather than nothing.
We could be talking $4–$5 trillion. Everyone knows that I have been a deficit hawk and a scold on debt for over 40 years. I am the anti-Paul Krugman. Except right now, in this particular situation, I think Paul Krugman and I would agree. (I am seriously laughing at myself as I write that.) The stimulus that is being talked about today is not enough. It must be more. Much, much more.
How Things Are Going to Change and What We Should Do I can’t say this enough. We are facing the strong possibility of a deflationary depression. That cannot be allowed to happen. That is going to mean significant amounts of government debt, much of which will have to be monetized by the Federal Reserve. I fully get that is risking an inflationary episode as a result. I am not going to spend a great deal of time next explaining complex economic realities. In order to get inflation, there has to be a significant increase in demand along with an increase in the money supply. We are going to increase the money supply, but it is not clear that demand will significantly increase afterwards at anything like what we had before.
This crisis could emotionally scar a generation just as much as the Great Depression affected our grandparents and great-grandparents. Especially after the Great Recession just 10 years ago. The 1990 recession and the bubble blowing up in Japan, even accompanied by massive monetary stimulus on the order of what we are talking about now, did not result in inflation. The Japanese became savers. It literally changed their habits.
There are ways to control an inflationary episode. There is damn little you can do with a deflationary depression.
The entire episode will change the way we structurally organize our business lives. Companies are finding out they can do more remote work. Workers will enjoy that. We may not need as much office space. We are also going to find out that we might need less of certain things. I am not going to speculate on what. But that means a lot of jobs that existed pre-crisis are simply not going to come back in any viable form post-crisis. We cannot keep a small business going beyond a certain point. Pick a number. Three months? Six months? At some point if you as a business owner can’t figure it out, you have to lose government support. You and your employees will have to figure out something else to do. Not unlike it was a few months ago.
This is important. The country ramped up for World War II. But when the war was over, the soldiers came home and mustered out of the armed services. We cannot stay on a wartime footing for more than a few months after the end of this crisis. No permanent government programs. Period. I suggest that since we are blowing out the budget anyway, why not sell a few trillion dollars of 100-year, 1% bonds and use the entire proceeds on infrastructure projects over the next four years. No high-speed trains, just replacing our roads and bridges, water systems, and upgrading our grids.
This may seem radical, but the world can absorb those bonds along with the other bonds we will need to sell. The Federal Reserve is not allowed to go into a primary auction. But as soon as those bonds are sold, the Fed can buy them. Why can’t the Fed offer a 1% profit to anyone who would buy that bond and sell almost immediately? Open it up to individuals, if possible, but damn well make sure the banks participate. You don’t have to issue the entire amount on day one, just as the money is needed. Which reduces inflationary risk.
What that does is put people back to work—people whose jobs are no longer viable. And we actually get something for the infrastructure expenditures that will last for generations. Gods know we need to spend money on infrastructure. It is crumbling.
Let’s assume we keep everybody afloat for six months, although I sincerely hope it is not that long. An extreme lockdown could mean a few months, not six months. What do we do after the virus is contained and we have vaccines? UGH. I hate saying this. I truly do. But we may be in a period like at the end of WW2 where the Fed controlled the entirety of the yield curve. Maybe this is the Great Reset 1.0, or a good practice round. Let’s do what we can and learn from it. We could do the same thing with businesses. It’s an easy way to collect data and present it to the government. I am sure that Zuckerberg, Brin, et al. can whip that up on their own nickel as part of the war effort.
This may seem like it’s out of left field, but many unemployed workers are already using Facebook. I’ll bet you between Facebook, Google, SAP, and other Silicon Valley computer wizards, they could come up with a way to identify need and connect with the US Treasury to make sure checks go out. In a compliant way. Yes, some people will try to cheat the system. When we find them, we will need to discuss with them what Americans should do in the middle of a crisis. Cheating is not one of them. But I believe the bulk of Americans will do the right thing. Let’s make it quick and easy for them. We are now all too familiar with the concept of social distancing. We need to think about economic distancing. When we have economic partners who act irrationally, hiding data about a new virus for months, allowing it to spread worldwide, destroying supply chains in the meantime, how much do we want to rely on them in the future? Every major flu of the past 20 years has come out of China. Just saying…
This is a virus we can beat. It is not the zombie virus. But someday it could be, and this is a great test to learn how to deal with it. Let’s not forget these lessons. Countries that want to hide their data are candidates for economic distancing.
It should be obvious, but we need to think about supply chains. The US is running out of something as simple as mouth testing swabs. It seems the entire world supply is made by two companies. When I was asked where I thought those were, I replied “China.” It is worse. They are both in Milan, Italy. Milan is in lockdown. The swabs are on the dock. But they are in their own kind of quarantine. Let’s look at some positives. Jobs and manufacturing were already coming back closer to the marketplaces, albeit using robots and 3D printing. But that still means jobs. That will accelerate. Over time, that means a lot more jobs in North America and Europe. And better supply chains. We really need to look at where critical medical and socially necessary products are made. We can’t fix it all at once, but we should make a start.
Once the CDC and FDA stopped trying to control things, we’re seeing a “Cambrian Explosion” of innovation and drugs to deal with COVID-19. The Milken Institute has a list of 101 different vaccines and drugs that are in process or are being tested.
Freed of government regulation, doctors are finding that certain drugs already available can reduce the time a patient is sick from 11 days to 4 days. That is a huge increase in survivability. It turns out the malaria drug has a significant effect. Who knew? Well, pretty much nobody until doctors began throwing everything against the wall to see what would stick.
People are beginning to post do-it-yourself ventilators made from parts you can get at a hardware store. Put some of those automobiles and Boeing workers on an assembly line. History note: The first ventilators were made by Boeing for bombers in World War II. American ingenuity can help us a great deal.
Dr. Mike Roizen asked me to emphasize that there are things you can do to improve your own immunity. His top three are make sure you get a lot of sleep, eat healthy, and manage your stress. I would add as much social distancing as you practically can. Bill Ackman was right a few days ago on CNBC. Trump needs to lock this country down. I know for a fact that the National Guard is being mobilized in many places. I need to apologize to my friend Governor Greg Abbott of Texas, who was locking Texas down as I sent out my last letter.
BUT, and this is a big but, look at this real-time flight tracker as of 11 am Friday. Does this look like a matrix for spreading a virus to you? These are flights that are IN THE AIR right now.
Maybe we need to rethink what is necessary flight (as in freight and foods and medicine) and what can be avoided. For at least a few weeks. As the links I provided at the beginning showed, every day of lockdown makes an exponential difference.
I know for a fact that the National Guard is being mobilized in numerous states. One can only speculate about the reason but you don’t do that unless you are planning to take serious action. I hope by the time you get this letter, in less than a few hours after I hit the send button below, that has already been announced.
We Can Do This We can do this. And when I say “we,” I mean myself and my American investor-readers, because our country has blessed us greatly. We have the means to get through this. Not everyone does. In fact, relatively few do. We are the fortunate ones. This is our calling and our responsibility. Not only can we do it, we must do it.
If you are not in America, you can do it as well. I am pulling for everyone in the world. Every country is going to have to figure out how to deal with its own problems. We need a world that is thriving and growing so that humanity can move forward to a much brighter future.
Personal Thoughts I’ve given you a lot to think about today. These are my unvarnished thoughts. I want your thoughts as well. I do read every comment and letter. My staff makes sure I get one sometimes LONG Word document of each and every one. I do my best to answer.
You stay safe and healthy and maybe use the time, if you have some, to call friends and family. A phone call is clearly social distancing. But it is much appreciated and will make somebody’s day much better.
Hang in there, there is going to be so much opportunity as we come out of this. And all of the old opportunities that I’ve been saying and talking and writing about over the years are not going away. Just postponed for a few months. Have a great week and I’ll be back again.
As I was doing the last-minute edit, I find my daughter Amanda, who lost both her jobs yesterday, is in the hospital as she lost all feeling on her right side. In the CT scan now. Stress as her husband just went back to school and she was the primary breadwinner with two young girls? This stuff is all too real…
(Publisher’s Note: I am sad to inform you that as we were preparing this letter for publishing, we learned that Amanda has suffered a stroke. John, our thoughts and prayers are with you, Amanda, and your entire family. –Ed D’Agostino)
Your believing we’ll get through this analyst,
John Mauldin Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics
(Publisher’s Note: I am sad to inform you that as we were preparing this letter for publishing, we learned that Amanda has suffered a stroke. John, our thoughts and prayers are with you, Amanda, and your entire family. –Ed D’Agostino)
P.S. Want even more great analysis from my worldwide network? With Over My Shoulder you'll see some of the exclusive economic research that goes into my letters. Click here to learn more.
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Next is the courts and Supreme Court which may have a part to play here for the Nation or for POTUS to do some very politically and constitutionally radical things with respect to the Wuhan Virus.
Some folks may be very surprised if primaries are stopped, and voting is suspended or changed in its form. Many state and federal election law may be altered, a lot. Votes in Senate may have to be remote, no legal as of now. How do we change that?? Const. . . Issue!
We very well may have to amend to Constitution in the middle of this. Then, possibly give the Executive Branch temporary Supreme Powers. We are in a bigger fight than just the Virus and the Economy. We maybe in a fight to keep the Constitution in its current form.
No Doubt this nation will be forever changed by this China Virus and the that will have to be taken in to account when we beat this thing.
No question we are heading down a path this Nation has never taken. Ever.
Stand Strong Hunter Gatherers of the Nation
The link I provided is the Joe Rogan Experience #1439 YouTube Podcast. Joe had one of the worlds foremost Infectious Disease “Medical Detective” experts on his 3/10 show to talk about Corona Virus, CWD and Lyme Disease.
This guy doesn’t use scare tactics but has enough research experience and confidence in what he knows to deliver his knowledge and info. as straight talk and isn’t about to sugar coat any of the info. or his opinions.
I have listened to it all and have broken it down by the sections noted above for the benefit of others if they are only interested in hearing what he has to say about Corona, CWD or Lyme per the following:
Corona Virus: Start-21:00; 31:45-1:14; 1:30-Finish
Fecal Transplants (Interesting topic didn’t know such a thing existed?): 1:14-1:15
Lyme Disease: 1:15-1:30 (interesting case example on how easily ticks spread from Wisconsin to Minnesota and throughout the NE. Also, very glad I live in a state where controlled burns are the norm). Thankful I hunt in the KS Flint Hills!
In a nut shell during these times: Eat healthy, get sleep/rest, if over-weight start losing and control your blood pressure (if you have issues with that). In the future we as a country need to stockpile medical equip. and supplies to help with future outbreaks, spend more $$$ on medical/vaccine research and keep researching and planning even when the all clear is eventually given!
Interesting quote this expert made. “Right now, with no known vaccine...controlling this virus is like trying to control the wind!” Take care all!
I have no joke..I do however have statistics. We now have 400 deaths and 38,757 positive cases, that makes our mortality rate 1.03%. It was 1.29 percent yesterday.... it keeps dropping day after day. Germany’s mortality rate is .37% because they have been testing since day one. The flu is 0.1%. So yes it is more deadly than the flu it appears, but are you screaming from the rooftops every flu season about the 20-50,000 people that died?? Do we shut down the economy each flu season??? Absolutely not
I’m all for medical personnel getting PPE and N95 masks but if they are under the age of 50 with no underlying conditions then they have a very small risk of any complications if they do catch covid. Also, there have been zero...repeat that zero deaths of children under the age of 9 on the entire planet, so his 2 little girls will be just fine. In fact the flu that is going around this year has had an unusually high hospitalization rate of children under the age of 4....way more than covid. People will die...it’s a part of life. 3 million people will die of all causes in the US this year alone. If this virus was deadly to children then I would be freaking out too, but it’s not. I’m a health 38 yo with 2 children under the age of 6, my odds and probably yours too are over 99% of being just fine. You’re going to be fine...no need to panic.
And by the way my wife is an ER Physician and I’m a Clinical Lab Scientists..And neither of us are worried at all about dying from covid.
Thanks for checking in; it's been an extremely busy week for me and I'm just getting caught up on researching up-to-date statistics and crunching the number.
If (and this is a big if given credibility issues) it appears that covid-19 has peaked in China and the curve is definitely flattening out; this peak appears to be somewhere between week 6 & 7 from the Jan 22nd timeframe where cases began growing exponentially. To try and ballpark a parallel as to where the US is relative to this staging we're finishing up week 4 of that kind of growth in active cases.
It's interesting to note that Italy did not take the same steps as the US relative to initiating travel bans and they've finished up week 6 of exponential growth and their curve is still trending up; I hope that's not indicative of continued growth along the same trajectory but it does highlight the need to break the infective cycle by stopping the influx of possible carriers (or symptomatic patients).
As of this morning the total US death toll was 414 and our CFR (case fatality rate) was 1.27% (China's is now down to 4.0%, Italy unfortunately has a CFR of 9.3%)
If our numbers hold I regret that we'll likely add another 403 deaths to our present count and I certainly don't want to minimize any loss but if the measures we've taken have had the mitigating impact health officials have hoped they would we may not see the kind of death toll some had feared possible. It's still early and I'm tempering my optimism as there are a lot of variables that could shift the present picture.
There is a lot of work going on in not just vaccine development but a number of possible treatment options. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (Tarrytown, NY) is working on some very promising antibody therapy options. The company has isolated hundreds of neutralizing antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 in mice and hopes to have the top 2 selected and ready for clinical studies by summer.
I'm aware of other research involving sera from patients who have recovered from covid-19 but from my limited research into this option I think it's further away.
The antibody option will have 2 uses; first it can be administered to "at-risk" people pre-exposure as a vaccine of sorts or it can be used as a treatment for those already infected.
I'm sure most of you have heard about Remdesivir, an antiviral originally developed for use against Ebola virus; it is not currently approved for use against SARS-CoV-2 but it does appear to possess the ability to interfere with viral replication. Gilead Sciences did file an IND (Investigational New Drug) application with the FDA and that agency did approve the study of the drug in Feb 2020. Gilead is working with the government on authorization for compassionate use of the drug in infected patients.
Hydrochloroquine (and chloroquine) are also being evaluated as possible treatment options (in combination with Azithromycin (Z-Pac)). As these agents are FDA approved they can be prescribed by a physician though this would be considered "off-label" usage (under such conditions there would ordinarily be liability issues for bad outcomes but I believe there are discussions ongoing about removing potential liability given the severity of the infection).
We should brace ourselves for this virus recirculating (possibly displaying similar seasonality to Influenza) so the treatment and vaccine options we're working on now may not have an immediate large impact on present cases but they will position us well to deal with a future outbreak.
Again, best wishes for the continued good health and safety of all here and all you hold dear.
It is powerful and it will burn your skin unless you dilute. It is odorless and will kill the Wuhan quick. Do all substances you bring from out your house to inside. Car, bags, groceries, CC cards, hands etc.
Not to fear Gallantly will we show the world how USA will turn the Infection vs Death rate on its head. US will forever put to rest the Tale of how EU medicine is the best in world.
As we fight the China Bug never forget who let this thing loose on the world. For what real reason? When we heal up from this the world and US must hold the CHI-Coms accountable in full.
Stay Safe Hunter Gathers
A couple years ago, I was sitting by my Mom's bedside where she was dying from cancer. About four in the morning her breathes became farther apart, then just quit. I was walking back to my hotel room, where some other family members were staying and stopped to get a coffee. The counter person was friendly and cheerful. People out early were going about their business totally unaware of my circumstance. The hotel clerk wished me a good day as I went by. I found it oddly strange that they weren't subdued or sad to even though I knew they didn't know. Their lives were normal and going on as they did yesterday.
Is it sad that people are going to die from Covid. Of course. Is it sad that people are going to die from a stroke, heart attack or car accident? Certainly! Is one more sad for those left then the other?
I'm not making light of the situation. But I do think the hysteria and panic being amplified by anyone with a platform is doing more harm than good. I'm half way through a two week isolation and my wife and I are both honoring that. As soon as it's over, she'll be going back to work as a nurse (retired) because they called for that. She's been working the past thirty years with chronic kidney failure patients. The only way out of her program is a transplant (which means you're in another one of her programs) or you die. She's said final "goodbyes" to a lot of people.
Death is sad. But to life live like death is all there is is also sad. My kids and grandkids will have to deal with my death (I hope) . But my death won't stop the world, or my town or even my friend's and family's lives.
You may think it callous, cold, unfeeling or even stupidly selfish that I am planning for the upcoming hunting seasons or camping and fishing trips with my grandkids. I don't.
I'm not sure who it was that said : "If I knew the world was going to end next week, I would still plant this apple tree today." Good advice. IMO.
I think it will come down to how seriously people in states that aren't in lockdown (as of today I believe it's just CA, NY & CT) take practicing standard precautions and minimizing socializing, especially in large groups.
I'm optimistic based on the number of new cases diagnosed relative to the increased capacity of testing; it's early and things can change but it was encouraging to not see a larger increase in the number of confirmed cases.
The other significant factor is the difference in overall health & hygiene levels between China & the US; in some areas the differences are pretty stark and of course, we don't have "wet markets" (where live animals are sold alongside food & vegetables).
Some of these physical factors that can increase risk of transmission simply don't exist in the US.
March 22 Italy Infected 59.138, 5.560 more than yesterday, 10.4% increase, 5.476 deaths, 651 more than yesterday, 13.5% increase, still climbing, are people even going to realize that this is not a flu, WHO has declare a pandemic, I’m sure they know more than any one here
Just think we do the hard stop end of next week. Bite that bullet and we can hole up for 3 weeks while testing gets ramped to full output we can get on top this bugger. Then, recover for a couple weeks and go right back in a hard stop for two weeks we can buy more time.
Hard to go Full Stop on a 20 Trillion $ economy. If you cant save both thats the one I would pitch first.
No company, no hospital, no doctor or nurse or dentist or any body is going to be providing services for which they won’t can’t get paid. That includes farmers and plumbers too.
Trial...if you have statistics that contradict mine then I’m all ears.
I try to be optimistic and not panic. Mike in CT seems to be slightly optimistic...he’s a professional. I’m just giving my opinion based on how I see it.... if that is somehow a bad trait then so be it.
The “civil” is going out of civilized pretty quick.
Maybe in the future people will learn to actually SAVE. We have been living as a delirious debt ridden society for far too long. The average citizen spends way above their means on luxury things because hey “I can afford to note”.
Hardly anyone actually OWNS anything other than debt and bills!
The older generations never had a whole lot, but what they did have was actually THEIRS!
I have some rentals and it’s just amazing what people drive and how they live yet are renting a house and have no plans to do anything different other than buy a new car every 2 years.
Savings is what’s drives the country and it needs to return, badly. We need to in some way teach people to be responsible for themselves that a bailout isn’t always gonna be on its way when something happens.
Shifting to the govt side of things....I was watching the daily press briefing by the Prez, VP and the rest of the team a second ago. That was the first one I have watched. I found it very encouraging businesses are stepping up, calling the Prez/VP/Team and saying they can make or manufacture things that are needed like ventilators, masks, etc. That reminds me of what happened during the beginning of WWII. Businesses stepping up production of needed war materials. In this case....the virus war. There is a new virus test kit that may come out soon that takes only 45 minutes to get the results. If they could make that for home use....that would be fantastic. A good time to own that company's stock. So I think there are some things happening that are happening that are encouraging.
We may meed the yoyng folks un a big wAy. They may well be the key. They maybe redirected into service to country into all essential sectors. Civilian draft so to speak. No college deferrals. Non open.
You post is very well taken 20-45 yr old will be indeed key to the Great Recovery.
Anyhow we cut it our young men and women have a very important roll to play and we must ensure that duty is adhered too.
Not sure what the Hell's up with the leadership in house and senate? They better figger which way they are going to go. Also not sure how you keep 90% of employees in nation paid on GVT $? They ought to hurry because we got about 7 more days and DJT will do what he said he would. Is it they just cant do anything productive or do they want to kick-start this nation from a blank canvas? You cant have both.
They have 5 or seven Senator's out of the quarem now. They address this very quickly as well.
States are already asking ther legislatures to modify election law this morning.
Your going to see many more and probably both the DNC, GOP and US election commission.
US just bought a chit ton of private equity bonds. So, far it did put a ripple in this suck hole of the mRkets.
I’ve got faith in the younger generations. I think it’s coming to a head. I think a lot of people have are over reacting on individual levels. However, if the worst case did happen, we will alright as a country. People always find a way to persevere when given the opportunity too.
On a side note, discussing this with my brother over the phone, he has neighbors that venture back to Italy yearly. It’s where they are from and where their family still lives. According to them, their home country has been fighting this since October. If that’s the case, then we might here for a while.
It’s funny to me that the more we find out, the more it aligns with what knowledgeable people are saying. This might be a longer run then first anticipated. And, the way people react is going to be the difference on how we all look back at this.
It is the character of this nation, always has been by the Grace of God and let's pray that He continues to guide us and support us.
Does not matter now as we have other priorities save our folks and our GDP. Then, there will be the part after where things will have to be made whole. That may take just as much courage as the fight we are in now, more possibly.
Starting to worry about Hawaii. They just pushed mandatory 14 day isolation back another 5 days. Gov Inge is way over his head. Lucky he has a Lt Gov that has a few more brain cells. Oahu is full of the Wuhan. His address last nite to the state was very alarming. Not sure why he told they state "by end of April we could have 45K in cases".
Not sure the guy is still functioning at acceptable level. They may need to have LT Gov take over or just pass the Key to the Feds and US Forces Hawaii at Fort Shafter.
The 15 day isolation is a nice idea and start but it won't be enough. It really needs to be around 60 days to allow all the supplies needed to be manufactured and properly distributed. A constant influx is needed for a long time and a mass surplus should now be stored by the Feds for the next time the wrong person eats the wrong bat.
I personally consider all jobs to be "essential" jobs. Income is essential to everyone. People with jobs that are open need to be allowed to work IMHO. I'm 57 and am more concerned about the economy and people losing their jobs and the long term ramifications of that than I am getting the virus (speaking of me getting the virus).
On a more positive note, I just watched the CEO of Ford doing an interview. Ford is already in production of respirators, masks and shields. They are also teaming with 3M on PPE production. It's good to see the private sector take the ball and run with this. I suspect more good news will be coming out soon.
I attached a link from FEMA as they try to combat the many rumors out there. Apparently the false rumors are so rampant they had to start a website trying to combat them....say it ain't so. Below is from the local newspaper.
"As testing increases statewide, Florida reports a 667% increase since Monday in confirmed coronavirus cases.
The Florida Department of Health Monday announced 220 new Florida coronavirus cases, including two in Volusia County and two in Flagler County.
The report brings the total number of positive coronavirus cases to 1,227 statewide, a 667% increase from one week ago, when FDOH reported 160 cases.
The FDOH also reported four new deaths from coronavirus, bringing the total number of deaths statewide to 17. "
All non essential work has stopped as of last night. This is going to be interesting when the natives go Tribal.