Jim River Guide Service
‘Draws and Covid.
Pronghorn
Contributors to this thread:
Ambush 19-Mar-20
wkochevar 19-Mar-20
Glunt@work 19-Mar-20
fubar racin 19-Mar-20
BowHiker 19-Mar-20
WapitiBob 19-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 19-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 19-Mar-20
Brotsky 19-Mar-20
Ambush 19-Mar-20
'Ike' 19-Mar-20
HDE 19-Mar-20
svrelk 19-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 19-Mar-20
TEmbry 19-Mar-20
Brotsky 19-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 19-Mar-20
Earltex 19-Mar-20
Ucsdryder 19-Mar-20
Glunt@work 19-Mar-20
cnelk 19-Mar-20
Ambush 20-Mar-20
weekender21 20-Mar-20
ALovely 20-Mar-20
Gman 20-Mar-20
midwest 20-Mar-20
HH 20-Mar-20
Franzen 20-Mar-20
JL 20-Mar-20
LINK 20-Mar-20
JL 20-Mar-20
Zim 20-Mar-20
Old School 20-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 20-Mar-20
midwest 20-Mar-20
HDE 20-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 20-Mar-20
krieger 20-Mar-20
Ambush 20-Mar-20
LINK 20-Mar-20
Habitat 20-Mar-20
ahunter76 20-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 20-Mar-20
HDE 20-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 20-Mar-20
TEmbry 20-Mar-20
'Ike' 20-Mar-20
Brotsky 20-Mar-20
HH 20-Mar-20
JL 20-Mar-20
KSflatlander 20-Mar-20
Trial153 20-Mar-20
Franzen 20-Mar-20
Trial153 20-Mar-20
Pop-r 20-Mar-20
Deertick 20-Mar-20
WapitiBob 20-Mar-20
Ermine 20-Mar-20
HH 20-Mar-20
ryanrc 20-Mar-20
KSflatlander 20-Mar-20
Mule Power 20-Mar-20
PECO 20-Mar-20
Trial153 20-Mar-20
HH 20-Mar-20
KSflatlander 20-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 20-Mar-20
midwest 20-Mar-20
KSflatlander 20-Mar-20
KSflatlander 20-Mar-20
Annony Mouse 20-Mar-20
sasquatch 21-Mar-20
woodguy65 21-Mar-20
Missouribreaks 21-Mar-20
Bou'bound 21-Mar-20
HH 21-Mar-20
Mike in CT 21-Mar-20
Mike in CT 21-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 21-Mar-20
Butternut40 21-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 21-Mar-20
Old School 21-Mar-20
Southern draw 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 21-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 21-Mar-20
HDE 21-Mar-20
HH 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
Trial153 21-Mar-20
HDE 21-Mar-20
Drummer Boy 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
cnelk 21-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 21-Mar-20
KSflatlander 21-Mar-20
Annony Mouse 21-Mar-20
HH 21-Mar-20
skull 21-Mar-20
HH 21-Mar-20
weekender21 21-Mar-20
Grey Ghost 21-Mar-20
HH 21-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 21-Mar-20
Ambush 21-Mar-20
HH 21-Mar-20
Norseman 21-Mar-20
Trophyhill 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 22-Mar-20
RYAN 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 22-Mar-20
Curt Wells 22-Mar-20
Timbrhuntr 22-Mar-20
Trial153 22-Mar-20
Ambush 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 22-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 22-Mar-20
RYAN 22-Mar-20
RYAN 22-Mar-20
Trial153 22-Mar-20
HH 22-Mar-20
woodguy65 22-Mar-20
crestedbutte 22-Mar-20
crestedbutte 22-Mar-20
crestedbutte 22-Mar-20
goelk 22-Mar-20
Busta'Ribs 22-Mar-20
RYAN 22-Mar-20
Busta'Ribs 22-Mar-20
Mike in CT 22-Mar-20
ground hunter 22-Mar-20
Trial153 22-Mar-20
Busta'Ribs 22-Mar-20
HH 22-Mar-20
Ambush 22-Mar-20
Mike in CT 22-Mar-20
skull 22-Mar-20
HH 22-Mar-20
Ambush 22-Mar-20
RYAN 22-Mar-20
skull 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 22-Mar-20
Trial153 22-Mar-20
skull 22-Mar-20
Ambush 22-Mar-20
Ambush 22-Mar-20
skull 22-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 22-Mar-20
sasquatch 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 22-Mar-20
TreeWalker 22-Mar-20
JL 22-Mar-20
RYAN 22-Mar-20
HH 22-Mar-20
crestedbutte 22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 23-Mar-20
crestedbutte 23-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 23-Mar-20
HH 23-Mar-20
PECO 23-Mar-20
HH 23-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer 23-Mar-20
HH 23-Mar-20
Cityhunter333 23-Mar-20
HH 23-Mar-20
happygolucky 23-Mar-20
Scooby-doo 23-Mar-20
Bowfreak 23-Mar-20
JL 24-Mar-20
HH 24-Mar-20
From: Ambush
19-Mar-20
Has anybody heard any murmuring or rumours from their state wildlife agencies about delays for deadlines, drawings or strategies if people can’t hunt some areas because of travel restrictions?

From: wkochevar
19-Mar-20
Isn't everything online now?? Not sure how this would affect that process other than draw odds may be better due to people not wanting to travel...

From: Glunt@work
19-Mar-20
We will have big issues if we can't travel freely by September. People will tolerate restrictions to a point. If they are viewed as too unreasonable, people will start to take an attitude that we will do our best to protect folks in a high risk category but the bulk of society needs to get back to living life. Corona is dangerous. Shutting a country down is also dangerous.

From: fubar racin
19-Mar-20
I’m already viewing them as to unreasonable....

From: BowHiker
19-Mar-20
I will be hunting mule deer and elk starting in August. Come hell or high water.

From: WapitiBob
19-Mar-20
This’ll be over in two months.

From: Scooby-doo
19-Mar-20
LOL, this will have a long lasting effect on everything. 2 months you obviously have no clue. I live in NY and we have over 4100 confirmed cases and it is growing by the minute. I wont get long winded here but look at my post in the Kansas thread. People have no clue as i didn't until it directly effected me. I have been ordered by the NYS of health to be self quarintined for the next 4 to 5 days and it may be longer. This shit is no joke! Shawn

From: Scooby-doo
19-Mar-20
Oh and by the way. I have 4 points for Iowa and plan on spending close to a month there this fall, thats if all is well at home and in this country!!! Shawn

From: Brotsky
19-Mar-20
This will be over the first Tuesday in November.

From: Ambush
19-Mar-20
Scooby , I’m five days in to a fourteen day mandatory self- quarantine because I came back from a few days camping in Yakima WA. Was heading for several weeks on the Oregon south coast, but that got scuttled!

Some draws start in August.

From: 'Ike'
19-Mar-20
The heat of Summer will help contain/destroy a virus....We'll be fine!

From: HDE
19-Mar-20
Two months? Needs to be one. At least the "closure bans" need to be lifted. I have crappie to catch...

From: svrelk
19-Mar-20
Yep, Montana cancelled all draws.... So y'all don't even need to bother applying for anything.... ??

19-Mar-20
Restrictions are becoming unreasonable. People die everyday in greater numbers from many other and worse things then this. I don't mean to sound cold heart'ed but, it is the truth. If you are sick stay home. If not, go to work and get busy. That is how we fix this. Not act like sheeple. Justin is right. This was just the latest tool used to try and hurt the current administrations chance to get re-elected. From what I have researched the last couple days is Pneumonia rarely kills healthy Americans. It's mortality rate is less then 5% across all age ranges and types in this country. And this type is proving to even less dangerous so far.

From: TEmbry
19-Mar-20
The people acting like this is the end of times are dumb. Those acting like this is a political stunt and no big deal are equally if not more dumb.

This could cripple our healthcare system. Hopefully it doesn’t.

From: Brotsky
19-Mar-20
Trevor, it’s already crippled parts of our healthcare system and it’s just the tip of the iceberg.

19-Mar-20
IT could cripple our markets, our freedoms, our way of life, everything. All on an unknown. Oh....., it already has.

Your bold statement of mentality seems to imply you are privy to some information the rest of the general public hasn't been given. Maybe you have. I don't know. But, I'm sure interested in how realities of what we have seen so far are remotely considered as an oxymoron. I don't claim to know everything or, even much at all. However, you imply to know more about this then most, why not educate? I'm all ears Tembry.

From: Earltex
19-Mar-20
I’m with you WV. Bring it TEmbry. Can’t wait to hear this.

From: Ucsdryder
19-Mar-20
If you think summer will kill it, explain Australia. It’s summer there....

From: Glunt@work
19-Mar-20
China reports maybe being over the hump. I have zero trust in what they say but Apple and Starbucks are reopening their China stores. My haircut place is closed, wish I could have made it in yesterday.

From: cnelk
19-Mar-20
China is offering humanitarian efforts to places struggling with the virus. Any takers?

From: Ambush
20-Mar-20
But the question still remains. Can I drop five hundred (Canadian pesos) on a Wy antelope draw with confidence that I’ll either get to hunt it or get refunded or deferred draw for next year?

And yes, Covid is and will be a very serious disrupter even if the health risks turn out to be minimal. But we will also not curl up into little balls, sucking our thumbs, quietly sobbing instead of living our normal-as-possible lives.

From: weekender21
20-Mar-20
Draw results aside, I'd be more worried about where we're at when the actual season rolls around. Hopefully we don't get COVID-19 round two next flu season but it's as likely as it is unlikely.

From: ALovely
20-Mar-20

ALovely's Link
Per - Jeremy C. Young @jeremycyoung Mar 17th 2020 We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong. imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course? Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II. Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing. This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals. And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense. Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close. Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear. But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen. How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available. During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end

A couple of clarifications/corrections. 1) An error on my end: 45 million global deaths would be the most from a pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918, not since the Middle Ages. Apologies for the mistake. 2) "The Holocaust" can refer to either the 6 million Jews killed by Hitler (that's how I use it here) or everyone he killed (around 17 million total). 3) WWII lasted 6 years in Europe, but 12 years in Asia, if you treat the invasion of Manchuria as its starting point (most do).

From: Gman
20-Mar-20
Don't think this will effect hunting/draws etc at ALL. May effect those that have to fly. To put this in an old timers perspective If you believe what you read in newspapers an old timer quoted living thru "68 Hong Kong flu, killed about a million people, 500,000, or 15% of population of Hong Kong" Asian Flu 56-57, killed 2 million worldwide ,70,000 in states". We are going thru what some of our seniors went thru years ago, when they Quaranteening was regular for mums ,measles, and chxpox. Don;t think it will ever come to rationing essentials like it was during WW2. One of the things I get out of this, is discovery of how as a nation we are vulnerable, and need to correct it/ fix it ASAP. If I have to live this life like this for a few months it just makes it that much sweeter when HUNTING SEASON, begins. Focus on getting healthy and in shape, be smart stock up DON'T HOARD. AND ABOVE ALL STOCK UP ON AMMUNITION AND GUNS THE ZOMBIES ARE COMING

From: midwest
20-Mar-20
Someone else can have my ventilator if it comes to that. Jesus take the wheel.

From: HH
20-Mar-20
My tags are in hand. Draw, no Draw come first flake of snow in high country I'm gone. Driving if I 90 stay open.

K~

From: Franzen
20-Mar-20
Make'm put their tin foil hats on before you start typing Trevor. You can lead a horse to water....

From: JL
20-Mar-20
A slight divirt from the OP.......I was metal detecting at the beach yesterday (Daytona) and there were hundreds if not thousands of people there. With schools closed, many families were there...along with the spring breakers. We have 9 cases in Volusia County and no one has died yet. The bro in MT said Montana is doing good regarding the virus....just 15 confirmed cases. The mountains are likely a good place to be these days.

From: LINK
20-Mar-20
You know why the number of cases are exploding like wildfire in NY...... It’s not they just started testing for it. How many of us have had this crap in the past 4 months and called it the flu? I don’t go to the doctor for the flu just so they can charge me a copay and tell me to go home and sleep. I’m not saying this isn’t serious for the elderly but so is the flu, pneumonia, seasonal allergies.....

From: JL
20-Mar-20

JL's embedded Photo
JL's embedded Photo
It seems to be more contagious than the standard flu but from what I'm reading the symptoms are pretty close. Here are the latest numbers from the CDC on the regular flu from October 1st 2019 thru March 7th 2020. Note the number of flu deaths in such a short time. I consider myself in one of the higher risk groups due to previous cancer / current immune/lung issues. I manage the regular flu good enough. If I get this virus we'll see how it goes....otherwise, still moving forward with life.

From: Zim
20-Mar-20
If you hunt public land, wildlife expert JB Pritzker has already shut down all hunting in Illinois. The ONLY state in the midwest to do this. Paying full salaries to state employees for doing absolutely nothing. Political payback like this is also why the state is broke and I was forced to relocate. But on the bright side buck quality would finally improve due to a reprieve from the 3 month crossgun onslaught!

BTW - I work for the federal government and was given the option of staying home, but elected to go ahead with a week long business trip to Iowa. Along the way I've not seen one of Pritzker's Hyatt Hotels closed due to the virus. Only the public land woods. Apparently his wildlife management expertise has lead him to believe oak trees and grasslands are bigger breeding grounds for Corona-19 than his hotels??? Weird because several of the other midwest state DNR's are encouraging the public to utilize these open spaces as one of the few low risk options for families during this crisis. Go figure.

From: Old School
20-Mar-20
Problem is the messages from so called experts are all over the map. Dr at Vanderbilt University says we will look back at this as a very small blip while others say countless millions are going to die here in the US. We have the responsibility to act rationally and logically. Something many Americans cannot seem to do. We’ve become a scared nation in the midst of panic. This is a bad virus - but perspective is important. China is months ahead of us in regards to their exposure to this virus - and less than 4,000 people there have died and they say they might be “over the hump” (whether or not we can trust what China reports is a whole different matter.) Those are the facts - no need to run infectious disease models and swing death rates from 20,000 to 5 million based upon moving percentages. Go look at China, Italy, etc... get the actual numbers - that’s called educating yourself. Too many running around like the world is coming to an end.

Shutting everything down is not the answer. At least most can agree on this. Use practical virus avoidance wisdom - wash hands frequently, avoid large gatherings, if sick, go home and stay away from others so you don’t infect them.

Truth be told nobody but God knows how this all ends. Let’s at least go through this with a rational mind.

From: Grey Ghost
20-Mar-20
As I look at my IRA, how all this craziness affects my hunting and vacation plans is the least of my worries.

Matt

From: midwest
20-Mar-20
Ditto GG. The virus doesn't scare me half as much as the economic fallout.

From: HDE
20-Mar-20
IRA's and any other market related portfolio's would not be affected if 1) People were not so greedy. 2) People actually knew how the stock market and business investment works.

From: Grey Ghost
20-Mar-20
Midwest, agreed, the economic fallout over this will last far far longer than the virus.

Matt

From: krieger
20-Mar-20
GG, yes. We are self imposing a long term recession/depression. I don't know the future, no human does, but I get the feeling we are acting like the females that have their breast removed because breast cancer is in their family history.....we are cutting our leg off below the knee just because we heard a ratttlesnake buzz..

The gene pool could use a little chlorine anyway, truth be told...and throughout history 100% of ALL humans have died. Talk about " unacceptable"...lol

Be smart, but don't be chicken little, IMO. I am not doing draws in quite a few states because I'm not spending the money...may not even have a job in 6 months if this keeps up...

From: Ambush
20-Mar-20
Quote from a news article about the reduction in air pollution over China and Italy:

”The country has some of the worst air pollution in the world, which is responsible for killing more than one million people annually. The United Nations estimates that globally, roughly four million people die each year because of air pollution.“

And Milan Italy is considered the most polluted area in Europe.

Another article claimed that 99% of the deaths in Milan had underlying health concerns due in part to pollution, smoking and age.

From: LINK
20-Mar-20
GG it’s a buyers market. Give it a few months and you better hold on because it’s going to be a fast ride back to 30000.

From: Habitat
20-Mar-20
It's not good out there and will be alot worse if we don't keep from spiking.If it can be slow increase we can handle if it spikes we pick who lives and dies because there is only a limited supply of PPE.I hope the US realizes after this that the most powerful country in the world better be able to take care of themselves and tax what comes in VS what is made in US. If you applied in NM you should have received an email about the F&G having to turn over your info to some wack job.

From: ahunter76
20-Mar-20
Wife, Daughter long time Nurses. Yes, it is serious. 1 Daughter works in lab testing similar to infectious bugs. It's serious. We are pretty much doing self quarantine just to keep our families safe . Scooby-Doo, Iowa DNR is having meetings on the CWD spread in the state so you need to keep tabs on areas & things DNR may decide (may save you a wasted trip) Im guessing they will make their findings public for hunters. I get DNR e-mail notices. Everything in Ia & Ill is pretty much shut down & public parks ect too. We have a large family (5 kids, 15 G-kids) & the G-parents are in the over 70 bracket & a couple with medical issues. High risk & the kids, g-kids are staying away. I am making no plans for out of state this year. Like my Daughter, a nurse over 15 years said in a group family text, I am doing everything possible to protect my family & if you don't take this seriously, it was nice knowing you. Walk in clinics have locked their doors & if you go there you call the number on the door. They ask you a few questions & if no fever or cough the PATIENT only is let in. I know, I went yesterday for a pulled muscle. IF you have a fever or cough you are told to go home (self quarantine) & call a Hospital or ER for added information on what to do. We need to take it serious & use common sense.

From: Grey Ghost
20-Mar-20
GG it’s a buyers market. Give it a few months and you better hold on because it’s going to be a fast ride back to 30000."

I like your optimism, LINK. But I'm not convinced. The markets will come back, they always do. But, the vast majority of much smarter investors than myself are predicting this will be at least a 2 year turn-around, and probably longer.

Oh well, wealth is all relative, I guess.

Matt

From: HDE
20-Mar-20
It's the uncertainty of reaction to the virus in many, just not a large enough sample size yet for an "average" predictable outcome. That and zero vaccine to curb the spread and lessen the symptoms. Add this to limited medical resources on a large scale and now there is an issue.

Agree on the fast track to 30,000.

From: Scooby-doo
20-Mar-20
GG, I get the e-mail updates as well. I am pretty confident in the area I have chosen to hunt. I just hope this pandemic is not what effect my ability to go. NY governor just shut down all non essential businesses. 100% of the work force is to stay home with the exception of pharmacies, health care providers and grocery stores! Shawn

From: TEmbry
20-Mar-20
1500 dead in Italy in the last 3 days alone.

Tin foil hats don’t belong to those worried about this wreaking havoc, they belong to those believing this is a political stunt to hurt the current administration. Is the media making this worse? Sure, when have they made any situation better? That doesn’t negate the fact that this problem is real.

From: 'Ike'
20-Mar-20
And Pat thought he got rid of the Community Forum...LMAO!

From: Brotsky
20-Mar-20
The political stunts are in the response, not the pandemic, and both sides are guilty.

From: HH
20-Mar-20
Yeah, I fixed my investements. Sold most free stock in Jan. Most my time now is taken in up researching who the GVT will save. There I will fix my grand childrens income for there lifetimes.

Figgered Im old enough, just fix my IRA remove the risk. Glad I did. Just gotta keep the China Virus off me.

Be hunting in the high country soon.

K~

From: JL
20-Mar-20
Someone made a good observation on the radio today about Italy. Their culture is everyone hugs and kisses when greeting. That would suggest the high infection rate there and any other country that hugs and kisses alot.

I'm on the mailing list for an outfitter in MT. I got an email from them today and they are still doing business as usual at this point.

From: KSflatlander
20-Mar-20
"Tin foil hats don’t belong to those worried about this wreaking havoc, they belong to those believing this is a political stunt to hurt the current administration."

TEmbry- couldn't agree more. Well said and worth repeating.

From: Trial153
20-Mar-20
1500 dead in Italy in the last 3 days alone. Tin foil hats don’t belong to those worried about this wreaking havoc, they belong to those believing this is a political stunt to hurt the current administration. Is the media making this worse? Sure, when have they made any situation better? That doesn’t negate the fact that this problem is real. ^ worth repeating

From: Franzen
20-Mar-20
Was anyone suggesting something else? I think my post was mis-read.

From: Trial153
20-Mar-20
Was anyone suggesting something else? I think my post was mis-read.

I dont think it was in response to your post, at least the way i read it.

From: Pop-r
20-Mar-20
Leaves alot more at work than those 3 Scooby.

From: Deertick
20-Mar-20
Not planning any major draws this year ... even if there is a "best case scenario", there's going to be a huge mess to clean up. My business needs to keep going. And if you don't own a business, there is still going to be work to do -- to help the people who will be hurting financially after this. Far more important than a hunt.

This financial mess is hurting the "Little Guy" ... Those who work for government, or other large employers, might see this as an inconvenience. But if you are the guy trying to make it in the restaurant industry, well, you are SOL. And if you're not "that guy", take time to think a little about that guy, and make plans to do something to help out.

From: WapitiBob
20-Mar-20
Our Gov shut down all restaurants and bars while she keeps getting paid. Meanwhile I can go to the grocery store and be closer to more people. It’s messed up and I wouldn’t he surprised if somebody doesn’t snap.

From: Ermine
20-Mar-20
All the restaurants and bars as well as nail salons and tattoo shops closed down. But you can still go to the mall and airport and be around people.

From: HH
20-Mar-20
I will do my part. I dont want any Gvt checks i did not earn.

Give mine to the little guys as you call them.

K~

From: ryanrc
20-Mar-20
The cure might end up being worse than the disease. If the shelter in place stuff goes too long the economy's collapse will be worse in the long run than letting this thing run its course. I am all for a week or two lock down, but after that, it is going to kickstart a depression worse than losing people. Granted i don't want to die obviously. Perhaps a 60 and above shelter in place with social distancing until treatments are available. But, we need to get back to work and spending money etc. And ramp up testing to drill down who should be quarantined. And ramp up PPEs like crazy.

From: KSflatlander
20-Mar-20
“I will do my part. I dont want any Gvt checks i did not earn. Give mine to the little guys as you call them.”

I guess Trump socialism is ok now. HH said socialism was evil now he promotes it. Bailouts are bad until you need them. COVID is turning the world on its head.

Seriously, good on you HH for saying you will give $$ to others who need it.

I got my tags too. Super excited about elk hunting this year. I’m going unless the law says I can’t.

From: Mule Power
20-Mar-20
I think the win goes to Wyoming for advance planning! They gave us an elk application withdraw date after we can get a better idea of how things will be going in a couple months. A silver lining. :-)

From: PECO
20-Mar-20
All I know is Colorado went from zero to 277 cases and 4 deaths in about 2 weeks. The first case from a nonresident skier. Ski resorts closed everyone going home. So now we will get a lull in cases and if it is still around, we will get a spike when the unlimited nonresidents show up to hunt.

From: Trial153
20-Mar-20
if you think Colorado is off the hook till hunting season you sadly misinformed

From: HH
20-Mar-20
This must be a joke KSL?

Glad you brought it up.

Why would you bring up something to divide Americans under a State of Emercency.

Your really not putting politics before our fellow citizens of the Republic?

I tried here about 4 times to let our boen in Jan about what was coming.

Bowsite censor it.

Almost everything i said has happened.

A buddy Ranger from Nicaragua is safe home last week cuz i told him 21 Mar 20 they would cut flights. They cut them tonite.

I really hope my fellow bowmen did not listen to these BS Sat radio financial asswipes!

K~

From: KSflatlander
20-Mar-20
Yes, only kidding. Just light heartedly pointing out how surreal things have got.

Agreed now is not the time for division.

20-Mar-20
I spent the entire fall and early winter, around normally healthy people who were diagnosed with Pneumonia. Well before this thing ever went public. We aren't talking about outside workers here. People doing office jobs. Some in their 50's and some in their 60's. Who fought this Pneumonia and are back to normal lives. Their diagnosis all went the same. They were told they had the flu. When they weren't better in 5 days or so, they'd go back and then all were inadvertently diagnosed with Pneumonia. These people were not mutual friends among themselves, they lived in 3 different states, and all recovered and are back to normal living.

What I think is probably going to draw wrath from the wise ones commenting on the dumb ones on this post. But, I'm going to say it anyways. I think anyone suggesting this is a new revelation are the dumbest among us. I think anyone here that believes China is being honest about how long they have fought this is among the dumbest humans alive. And, I think you have to have dingle berry brains if you think this country wasn't one of the first to be heavily affected. No other country world wide has the number of citizens traveling to and from China more then America.

So, in case a few of you are to dumb to understand what I am saying; this has been here a while. It has been mis-diagnosed all along. Or, accompanying other illnesses hiding itself. It is undoubtedly a bad virus and has taken its toll on certain countries. But, to believe that we are only entering the danger zone created by this virus seems naive to me. At best. Am I right? I don't know?

What I do know is this was seized as an opportunity by political blowjobs in the media and politics to do just as suggested. Does that mean it isn't a threat? Nope. So, whether I am right about how long this has been here will likely never be known. But, I do know this isn't Italy. I do know that every one who seems to be scared, are basing it on assumptions we simply don't know to even exist outside of artificial statistics based on another countries suggestion. No one I know is dismissing the importance of caution concerning risk factors. And, the only people here totally talking about this with nothing but a broad bias, are the ones unwilling to admit the realities we do know about this.

One more tidbit. If the scare of this gets any worse, you are going to see a pandemic that will make this pneumonia seem mild. Trillions lost. People unable to buy food and necessity's in certain places will start to do the nthinkable to get it. At rates that make Covid 19 seem like child's play. So, while we have supposedly only had 250 or so people die here from the virus, we had better get a grip on the emotions surrounding this topic and act like we have some sense. While there is still an opportunity. to do so.

From: midwest
20-Mar-20
I will say this....HH called it 100%.

I asked my gf today, "If I had told you what we would be going through today two weeks ago, would you have believed me?" Her answer, "No", as I'm sure most of us would have answered. Can't imagine what we'll be going through 2 weeks from today.

From: KSflatlander
20-Mar-20
WV- it’s ironic that your theory on origins is completely based on assumptions. Just your wild #%* guess. Do you actually know how many virus strains and subtypes cause flu like symptoms? See link. But you just know that COVID-19 was here long before even though epidemiologists and virologist say it wasn’t. Talk about tin foil. I’ll go with the scientists on this one. C’mon man.

From: KSflatlander
20-Mar-20

KSflatlander's Link

From: Annony Mouse
20-Mar-20

Annony Mouse's Link
Mike from CT has been posting in the CT state forum with information on Covid-19.

Unlike most of the experts who have posted (much disinformation) from media reporting (which much is their interpetation), Mike is a virologist and involved. Some good information in his posts and he is has been providing answers to questions posed.

Hopefully, the Bowsite censors will not delete this information as they have done on other threads.

From: sasquatch
21-Mar-20
We are making the impacts much larger than the virus probably ever could alone.

Shutting this economy down should be a bigger concern I believe over a small percentage of affected people and then an even smaller percentage of that dying.

We are hurting ALL 350 million god the population.

We are burning down the house to kill the mouse.

From: woodguy65
21-Mar-20
Annony thanks for posting Mikes link! Mike thanks for posting!!!

21-Mar-20
A plan is in place, will see what happens over the next few weeks. The least of my concerns is my status in the state license drawing processes. Life will go on, we simply all need to do our part and let the chips fall where they may. Recreational hunting is extremely low on the relevancy chart for me and the vast majority of Americans.

From: Bou'bound
21-Mar-20
Mike's info is unbelieveably helpful and factual and I hope he keeps posting. By far the best information to come out of CT forum since they stopped posting Live Hunts.

move those posts here for everyone to see readily. (Mike's that is not more CT Live Hunts)

21-Mar-20
Thanks AM and thanks Mike!

From: HH
21-Mar-20
This was not hard to see if you just looked and had some experience in or have seen what disease has done to places without modern medicine. This being a "new to the human order" disease that was said to be in Dec by a Taawanese and China doctor extremely nasty disease.

True I think its been in western Canada & USA for awhile. As to WV tale I haven't a clue? I do like his salt however. I do know those who had the power and $ of old are going to get crushed and if you keep your head, stay clean, help your fellow American brother you'll come out OK.

Some folks were made for the fire and the fight, while others were not.

K~

From: Mike in CT
21-Mar-20
Best wishes for good health for all of you and yours!

Here is one of my first responses that I actually put on social media as a favor to a friend who had alerted me about how much panic seemed to be setting in:

I’m posting this as there continues to be an unhealthy level of misunderstanding about the comparisons between the H1N1 pandemic and the current COVID-19 pandemic. There is a chart that has been floating around for the past few days attempting to lend perspective between the current COVID-19 pandemic and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic; though well-intentioned it is dangerously misleading; it’s truly only meaningful when placed in proper context. To keep things simple, if you determine the two CFR's (case fatality rate, derived by taking the total number of deaths from a disease over the total number of people known to be infected with the disease) the CFR for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was 0.205% while as of 3/13 the US CFR from COVID-19 was 2.56% (41 confirmed deaths out of 1,600 confirmed cases).

Another key distinguishing difference is the R0 (pronounced R nought) of infectivity rate of the two diseases; for influenza it is 1.3 while for COVID-19 it has been estimated to be between 2.0-3.0. The R0, or infectivity rate refers to the number of people who can be infected by an infected host; for COVID-19 the R0 means that it is between almost 2 to almost 3 times as infective as influenza (which goes to the questions about why more cases of COVID-19 in a shorter period of time.)

Another distinction that needs to be clarified is the difference between mortality and death rate (or case fatality rate to be more specific). The mortality rate of a disease is determined by taking the total number of people known to have died from a disease and dividing that number by the estimated population at the mid-year point, and is usually expressed as deaths per 100,000. On 3/5 WHO estimated a mortality for COVID-19 of 3.4% and as of 3/13 the CFR was 3.7% (5,088 confirmed deaths out of 137,445 confirmed cases). As we are early in the pandemic and the number of confirmed cases will grow significantly as we have expanded our testing capabilities I expect the CFR will decrease and be less than the mortality rate (given the much higher percent of infected patients that will be asymptomatic or only suffer a mild, upper-respiratory tract infection from which they will recover).

The last point is particularly significant as it is completely understandable that many in the general public will mistakenly assume (and the press is definitely not helping alleviate this misunderstanding) that an increase in the number of confirmed infections is equivalent to an indication of an inadequate response to this pandemic. As we continue to expand testing (initial, confirmatory testing was largely centered on patients not only known to have the infection but the majority of those patients being in the severely symptomatic cohort) to people who have been known to have been exposed to infected patients and/or who may have some clinical symptoms that cannot be ruled out as other upper respiratory tract infections we will see a significant increase in the total number of diagnosed infections. Again, temper this reality with the knowledge that 80% or better of those diagnosed as being infected will either remain asymptomatic or will only develop mild upper respiratory issues.

Now for the good news; the R0 is a statistical measure of what can happen, not necessarily what will happen. The key to containing a pandemic is to break the infective cycle; travel bans, cessation of large gatherings, etc all work to mitigate the spread as does increasing awareness of basic preventative measures we can all take.

While we should be as informed as possible and duly concerned what is out of balance is the hyperbole played out in the printed and televised media daily; this is counterproductive and leaves the public more misinformed than informed.

Be vigilant, be careful but also be calm; this too shall pass.

From: Mike in CT
21-Mar-20
Here is an update I posted from Thursday this week with some encouraging signs (not to be confused with anything remotely close to saying we can all relax now!):

Update on SARS-cov2 Outbreak:

In my post this past Sunday I tried to summarize where we were as a country both in terms of the current state of infected persons and how we were moving quickly to ramp up testing capacity, explore treatment options and develop an effective vaccine.

There have been as I cautioned then a significant increase in the number of cases diagnosed in the US; this is a by-product of what is very good news; we have significantly increased our testing capacity as our 2 largest national reference laboratories (Quest & LabCorp) have the ability to perform 10,000 tests per day and expect to increase that to 20,000 tests per day by the end of the month. While this will result in that significant increase in diagnosed infections we will be able to isolate asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients to mitigate further spread and we will begin treating those whose symptoms are more serious.

On that front we have seen some individual antiviral compounds and “cocktails” employed that have produced good results, and further studies and refinements will only improve this capability. On Tuesday Phase 1 Clinical Trials were begun for a vaccine and, God willing, we may have a safe, deliverable vaccine in approximately a year’s time, significantly ahead of the normal timeframe for vaccine development.

In the US the CFR (case fatality rate) has fallen and is now approximately 1/3 of the rest of the world (1.5% vs 4.3%). Even more encouraging is the news regarding the percent of diagnosed and actively treated patients who are manifesting “serious” symptoms; in the US (0.6% vs 5.4% for other countries with China having the highest % of serious cases at 31.3%).

To be sure we still have quite a ways to go; we will probably have a much sharper picture of how far along we are towards stabilization by the end of April. What should be comforting is that we are seeing signs that are encouraging that the steps we’ve taken have been effective and we should be confident that we will emerge from this cloud intact.

Continue to follow standard precautions, exercise good judgment and above all, remain calm.

My very best wishes for the continued good health of all my friends and their loved ones on this forum; God bless and keep you.

21-Mar-20
Mouse, I appreciate the link. We can take Mike's advice to the bank. As always.

From: Butternut40
21-Mar-20
Thank you Mike.

From: Grey Ghost
21-Mar-20

Grey Ghost's Link
In times of crisis, some amazingly generous people step up to the plate. See link.

Matt

From: Old School
21-Mar-20
Mike - thank you for the clear articulation of facts. This is serious, but the sky isn’t falling as so many want to believe. Thanks for the post.

21-Mar-20
WV your theory hits home for me as well about three weeks ago I had a fever 102 and coughing went in had it checked out they did a flu test and it was negative the doctor said it was something going around , six days later still coughing but the fever had disappeared but I still felt like I had been run over by a truck this time I was told it’s Bronchitis and here is your steroid pack for six more days, I took as directed and not sure there was any advantage with the pack? I’m finally feeling somewhat better. Also thanks Mike for your information.

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20

KSflatlander's Link
Unless you were in wuhan China in late 2019, what you had was not COVID-19. Seriously, this is part of the misinformation problem which cause distrust in our national science experts/doctors who are trying to combat this and calm the public.

21-Mar-20
I too had the same in November. Fever, congestion in the chest, told negative on the flu but, that it was just a bug going around.

The thing about expressing your thoughts, is so many take the opportunity to chastise you if it doesn’t align with the norm. I might be as wrong on the idea this has been here for a bit. But, I don’t let Symantec’s rule my train of thought when common sense says something else.

Ryan, are you able to pass gas without a science explanation?

And, thank you Mike for all the great info.

From: Grey Ghost
21-Mar-20
Brings a whole new meaning to "bat-shit crazy".

Matt

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20

KSflatlander's Link
“In late December, 2019, patients presenting with viral pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, China. A novel coronavirus was subsequently identified as the causative pathogen, provisionally named 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). As of Jan 26, 2020, more than 2000 cases of 2019-nCoV infection have been confirmed, most of which involved people living in or visiting Wuhan, and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed transmission has been confirmed.“

If you, or others you know were sick with similar symptoms, it was NOT COVID-19. There is a ton of credible scientific data out there disproving your gut feeling.

No disrespect to anyone but intuition does not replace science.

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20
“Ryan, are you able to pass gas without a science explanation?“

Nice one WV. It actually did make me laugh. I don’t need a science explanation to pass gas as I wear scent lok underwear so it never happens because it’s undetectable.

On a serious note, I’ll take science over intuition during a pandemic. Call me crazy.

From: Grey Ghost
21-Mar-20

Grey Ghost's embedded Photo
Grey Ghost's embedded Photo
My test results came back...phew!!

Matt

From: HDE
21-Mar-20
The US and world economy cannot wait one year for a vaccine. At some point (soon), life in the world will need to go back to some sort of normalcy before a year's time.

A person DID NOT need to have been in Wuhan in 2019, only in contact with some who had.

The one thing political about any of this is the dumbass impeachment crap early this year when preventive measures could have been more earnestly explored and discussed. We would already be at a point today where we hope we will be come May.

From: HH
21-Mar-20
Good stuff

Im in day 7. Nuttin yet.

K

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20
“A person DID NOT need to have been in Wuhan in 2019, only in contact with some who had.“

HDE- The claim was that it might have been in the U.S. before December 2019. You got any evidence that it was? Something the says all of our experts/doctors are wrong that it was not in the U.S. before January. What’s your point HDE?

From: Trial153
21-Mar-20
WV takes the cake for the craziest post ever. Polonius is screaming in pain at that one

From: HDE
21-Mar-20
KSFlat - evidence? Uhhhh...tens of thousands of cases worldwide. I said you didn't have to be in Wuhan to have come in contact with the virus, just with somebody who had. That is the ONLY way to have had it spread worldwide and there were cases outside of Wuhan by the time Jan 2020 rolled around, WHICH MEANS people carried it in late 2019. The key word to your post is the "The claim was that it might have been..." is MIGHT. We do not know with definitive certainty that this virus was present long enough to have allowed for a more circumferential global spread by Dec 31, 2019.

Nobody can really prove or disprove if it was or was not here in 2019. Jan 5, 2020, by the way, is Dec 28, 2019 for the purposes of incubation for this bug. Not all carriers know they have it.

That's my point. Damn, you must be an engineer...

From: Drummer Boy
21-Mar-20
We had a house fire and I have not ben on here for a long time.But after reading Mikes posts I have to say great job,on explaning in laymens turms.Thanks

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20

KSflatlander's Link
“Richard Watanabe, a professor of preventive medicine at the University of Southern California, told PolitiFact that there’s at least evidence that there were four cases in China from earlier in December than the first reported case in Wuhan on Dec. 31. And since it’s a new virus and the early symptoms are similar to the flu, it’s possible cases existed in China even earlier than that, he said.

"However," he said, "in the U.S., it is very unlikely we had cases in November or December, given what we know about the course of the disease and its later symptoms. The first cases in the U.S. were, in fact, travelers that brought the virus from China or other countries."

Vox recently reported that an analysis of the coronavirus’ genome by Tanja Stadler, a professor of computational biology at ETH Zurich and a molecular epidemiology expert, found that the virus emerged in humans in China in the first half of November 2019.

"The widespread hypothesis that the first person was infected at an animal market in November is still plausible," Stadler said in a statement. "Our data effectively rule out the scenario that the virus circulated in humans for a long time before that."

HDE- If you want to argue that COVID-19 was in West Virginia before December then take up with the doctors that say it wasn’t. It is FALSE.

21-Mar-20
Ryan, I'll make this easy for you. My opinion is mine. I could care less what you think of it. It really has no bearing on any of this in any capacity other then to explain why I feel the way I do. Just don't twist what I or anyone else has said for the sake of argument. Slow down, read, and digest it before putting things into print for the sake of argument.

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20
WV- reread your 3rd post on this thread. From that post your opinion is at odds with the epidemiologists who know much more about this than you or I. Maybe you should take your own advice and “slow down, read, and digest” your own words before you post. I haven’t posted my opinion I’ve posted the opinion of doctors who have data to back it up. Misinformation doesn’t help even if it’s your opinion.

From: cnelk
21-Mar-20

cnelk's embedded Photo
cnelk's embedded Photo

From: Scooby-doo
21-Mar-20
KS and what makes you believe what these doctors post is fact. It has been proven that there is much information out there, a lot of it being spread by so called health experts. Shawn

From: KSflatlander
21-Mar-20
And there you have it...full circle. Around and around we go.

From: Annony Mouse
21-Mar-20

Annony Mouse's Link
Mike Glad you posted a compilation from the CT thread as the editors have removed it. There are too many self-ordained experts who rely upon social media for knowledge. Your credentials, OTOH, make your information much more valid than what is posted in the general media.

Additionally, I came across this interesting article (The Diamond Princess, a floating Chinese Virus palace, provides suggestive data). In this actual "test tube" environment, it seems that the majority of those exposed either did not get infected by the Convid-19 virus or did and did not show any symptoms. Interesting numbers.

From: HH
21-Mar-20
Every Turd on Social Media and I mean every one , like this here. Was teliing me late Jan. I was full of chit. I ntold my son when I left Hawaii last Sat you'll be stuck here by next weekend, Today 21 March. He is there for long haul.

All non essential air travel is suspended today.

I love when people tell me what I knew 45 days ago. It's like reading George Orwell's 1984 and the Memory Hole. Tell me Cpt's Obvious, Please. So, I can file it in the Memory Hole. Just like a LT telling me our 40 man Platoon is decisively engaged by two AFG chit birds with a RPK 800m away. Well thank you LT. Now get yer ass over there and kill those two terds while supress them and put a Gustov up his cake hole.

If you listened to DJT closely. He gave us 15days Sun or Monday. Get your stuff in one sack cuz when that time is up the fuk fuk is over and the real belt tightening will occur. Yesterday world is over. Learn to live in the environment you have fight and survive in now.

Fare the well Brothers of the Bow.

K~

From: skull
21-Mar-20
Lots people don’t take this serious, look what happens in Europe Italy in particular , no one followed the rules, Everyone thought it was nothing to worry about it, 800 deaths in the last 24 hours in Italy , no one knows what is going to happen, this is a virus that can mutate from animals to animals, from animals to human, from humans to humans, 4 times faster then the regular flu, this is just the beginning, is only going downhill from here

From: HH
21-Mar-20
All western EU nations are super social in lifestyle. Even in the country with plenty of space they all live in villages next to one another.

Poland put travel controls on Germany NE Border. The big early crops are soon to come in . The Pols are not going to come for the season. Hmmmnn Merkel says she has a plan. . . . She is going to pay the Afghans, Syrians, Turks, Iraqis Morrocans, Lybians, and African refugees, eyc. Is she really brain dead? They will not harvest a damn thing unless under gun point. Tone deaf and commonless in sense. Merkel. . . she better have a exit plan or the Germans will seal her fate, It may to her dismay look like Clara Petacci's .

K

From: weekender21
21-Mar-20
Not draw related but in order to correct an earlier statement.

Airports in Hawaii are still operational. Visitors to Hawaii are strongly encouraged to postpone their vacations for at least 30 days.

From: Grey Ghost
21-Mar-20
"Every Turd on Social Media and I mean every one , like this here. Was teliing me late Jan. I was full of chit. "

And some even apologized, ranger.

Matt

From: HH
21-Mar-20
Forest thru the Trees Airborne ;)

We will get thru this. We beat the Kaiser, We beat the Fascists, we beat the Hammer and the Sickle. We will beat this. But as with all things won thru our toil and treasure they come with a price.

Our victory here, now with this China Plague will likely mean we and our allies will have more work to do that will be just as tough as this.

K

From: Scooby-doo
21-Mar-20
We are waiting for my wifes test results still, so her and I are in quarintine until we get them. Remember even ther packages we recieve from Amazon and such can transmit this virus, up to a day it can live on cardboard. I recieved 2 packages in the last two days and did not give it a second thought, as a lot of people aren't!! Everyone has to start using their heads cause we all f%ck up when we don't even mean too!! Shawn

From: Ambush
21-Mar-20
Shawn, I never even thought about Amazon packages being a possible transmission vehicle! I'm expecting two packages Tuesday and that would be day ten of our fourteen day isolation. My wife is a retired nurse and they want her back as soon as the time is up. My oldest daughter is an occupational therapist at the our local hospital, working a lot with the elderly, so we have to keep our distance from her and our grandkids until we are clear. Probably just kick the packages around to the back of the house and leave then overnight.

From: HH
21-Mar-20
A yrhing outside your clean zone is potentially contaminated to include clothes shoes you went out in for a day ir more depending on wnvirinmental conditions.

The best thing ine can do is make decon liquid you can spray in a fine mist.

Keep a qt srayer in all cars and get a big one for house. Going to pick up another presuure tank tomorrow for large decon. Plenty of good chemicals stil out there that’ll stomp Wuhan out in several minutes.

Bleach and water will work with a few small drops of sodium hydroxide , just has to sit a little longer than high powered chemicals.

Take appropriate decon measures as needed for your daily exposure.

Fare the well men of the Stick and String

K

From: Norseman
21-Mar-20
Dish soap and water is all you need

From: Trophyhill
22-Mar-20
The liberals and democrats are loving this crisis. Blaming/bashing President Trump and praising China every chance they get. Unbelievable..... .

22-Mar-20
No.......!!!!!! The brain child's among us have already said that wasn't happening.

From: RYAN
22-Mar-20
The people predicting the end of the world on here need to chill.

So far there have been 348 deaths and 26,859 positive results for a mortality rate of 1.29%. The mortality rate goes down almost every day now that they are ramping up testing. Obviously there are far more people than 26,859 that have coronavirus In the US because many are asymptomatic. This would increase the denominator which would in turn lower the calculated mortality rate even further.

The NBA tested 8 teams (120 players) and found 10 of them to be positive for coronavirus. Most of these guys were showing absolutely no symptoms at all. The only reason we knew these guys were positive is because they got a random screening for security purposes. Many people who have mild or no symptoms will not seek out testing.... thus making it seem like the mortality rate is higher than it actually is.

JL posted earlier in the thread that the flu has killed between 22,000-55,000 this year in the US in 157 days. If we take the middle of that estimate and say 38,500 people died then on average 245 people a day died of the flu. That happened every day for 5 and a half months and no one blinked an eye, because it was the flu and not some scary new disease we have never heard of.

We need to take practical measures to protect the most susceptible in our society... those over 60, those with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, lung disease and hypertension. Crashing the economy and putting millions out of work with these shelter in place and mandated closures for everyone is an extreme measure that will cause undue harm to many more than the virus ever could.

We need better data to determine the true infection rate in the population to make informed decisions instead of letting politicians wreck our economy as they try to outdo each other with increasing levels of restrictions. If you are scared, sick, or have pre existing conditions then stay home. The rest of us need to get back to work and live our lives.

22-Mar-20
Dang it man. You nailed it.

From: Curt Wells
22-Mar-20
For those who think it is impossible that someone might have had this disease in January, allow me list two exhibitors at the 2020 SHOT Show in Las Vegas on January 19: Wuhan BOE Electro-Optics Systems Wuhan Guide Sensmart Tech I am making no claims whatsoever, but I'm sure the representatives of these companies showed up in the U.S. well before Jan. 19. The SHOT Show is attended by tens of thousands of people from across the Earth. I was also sick, with a cough, and a slight fever, right after SHOT. Was told it was viral. Just sayin'...

From: Timbrhuntr
22-Mar-20
The problem with this if the drastic measures work all the know it alls will say see they over reacted and if we don't take them and their are right about how bad it could be it won't really matter ! All I know is its easy to be an expert and tell people what to do when you have no direct responsibility to the results it might cause !!!

From: Trial153
22-Mar-20
At this point if people STFU and got us some n95s and PPE kits we would be very freaking pleased.

From: Ambush
22-Mar-20
Alrighty then. I’m going to put in for WY antelope and hope to draw my first choice with half the points.

Now I’m wondering if I should put in for AZ javelina, because they ran out of leftovers for my area in January, this year.

22-Mar-20
Do most common people still posses the ability to compromise. Why does everything have to be a hard stand Timbrhntr?

From: Scooby-doo
22-Mar-20
I am not a doomsday guy and I am in NY yet still 100 miles or so from the epi-center but I would rather ere on the side of caution and just dop what is asked of me for now. Its has been proven that social distancing is effective no matter what any one says it just makes sense. As I keep saying better to be safe than sorry!!! Shawn

22-Mar-20
(I'm an idiot)

According to News this AM, Fed EX is planning to fly all sorts of stuff into NY state this coming week. It will sure be interesting to see if Governor Cuomo gets the resources to do enough testing to reach those that have had it and beat it. Anyways, Sounds like there is a good plan in place to deal with it. NY city is going to get hit hard for sure if people keep acting like there is nothing to fear.

From: RYAN
22-Mar-20
“Now I’m wondering if I should put in for AZ javelina, because they ran out of leftovers for my area in January, this year.”

You should definitely put in for AZ javelina...but make sure you wear you N95 mask and PPE

From: RYAN
22-Mar-20
“Now I’m wondering if I should put in for AZ javelina, because they ran out of leftovers for my area in January, this year.”

You should definitely put in for AZ javelina...but make sure you wear you N95 mask and PPE

22-Mar-20
The Beacons Are Lit By John Mauldin | Mar 20, 2020

John MauldinIt’s Happening Going to War We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession What Will It Take? How Things Are Going to Change and What We Should Do We Can Do This Personal Thoughts

In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid.

Click here for video.

At the other end of the beacons, no one is sure whether the very reluctant king will honor the ancient, thousands-year-old treaty. Then you see the doubt on his face turn to firm resolve as he gives the order: “And Rohan will answer.”

Now, in answering, Rohan wasn’t simply helping its ally. The enemy was coming for them, too. They were very aware of that fact. Saving Gondor was the best way to save Rohan.

Today in the real world, we also face a dark, implacable, powerful foe. It is a microscopic virus that we now know is a threat, a very serious one. We in the United States have just seen the beacons. The warning travelled not just a few hundred miles but around the world: from China and Korea, to Italy and Spain, and now here.

The beacons are lit. How will we answer?

It’s Happening Back in late January, the initial Wuhan outbreak finally caused the Chinese government to impose travel restrictions, close factories, and so on. Over here, some of us immediately knew that would mean supply chain problems. I sent some reports on it to Over My Shoulder members in early February. (Members can read them here and here. Quite interesting in hindsight.)

Later in February, recalling my patented “bug hitting the windshield” metaphor, I said, “It’s beginning to look like virus COVID-19 could be the windshield against which the global economy meets its maker.” We can now strike the “beginning” part of that statement. It’s happening.

I was initially hopeful the virus would spread slowly enough to get us into summer, when it should recede and then we would have a vaccine fairly soon. Neither is happening. I’m now convinced, as I said in my midweek letter that we could lose untold tens or hundreds of thousands of lives, even with drastic action. Without that action, the toll could be millions. As of Friday noon, it appears that we are going to take at least most if not all of the very necessary painful actions.

In that update I referred you to two links. If you didn’t read them already, please do.

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now Sobering Prediction If you are someone who is skeptical of scientists, the media, and so on… I’m with you. But this time I am listening because these same experts have been right.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb is not some crazed liberal. He is a physician and public health expert who was appointed FDA commissioner by President Trump. And he, along with Trump NSC biodefense advisor Luciana Borio, wrote, in The Wall Street Journal on January 28 (!) that we should Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic. Then they wrote again on February 4, saying we must Stop a US Coronavirus Outbreak Before It Starts. Many other experts said the same.

Note, both of those were on the reliably conservative WSJ editorial page. This is not a mainstream media hoax. It is not an anti-Trump plot. It is not clueless professors trying to get funding. This is real and they have been right. You can ignore them if you want. I choose to listen.

I’m saying this strongly because as recently as this week, I’m still hearing from lots of readers who don’t get it. I won’t give examples.

The US lost 2,996 lives on September 11, 2001. We thought that was enough to go to war. And all the experts say the coronavirus will likely kill many more than that, just in the US. Would some of them have died soon anyway? Sure. But so would some of the 9/11 victims. We didn’t use that fact to minimize their loss and we shouldn’t minimize coronavirus deaths, either. This is not a figment of the imagination. It is tragically, fatally real.

Some want to compare COVID-19 to the swine flu. Let’s look at the facts.

Charts: WWL-TV

The data shows that, at this point in the outbreak, COVID-19 is spreading faster than H1N1 and is killing many more of its victims. This is not nonsense. It is fact.

We don’t know a lot about the Chinese government’s internal deliberations, but I feel sure they saw curves very much like these. At first, it hid its head in the sand and tried to hide the outbreak from the world as well. Then that became impossible. That is why it took what looked to foreigners like insanely harsh containment measures and rushed to build temporary hospitals.

I don’t think Xi Jinping did that because he is a great humanitarian. He saw a serious threat to China’s people and economy, and possibly his own regime’s survival. So he acted decisively and still saw thousands die.

Here in the US there’s every reason to think our experience could be far worse than China’s without immediate action. It is not confined to just one city; we have large outbreaks on both coasts and more popping up everywhere. All 50 states now have cases. Worse, we are reacting much later than China did. I am convinced that a rigorous national lockdown and social distancing is the only way to stop this from reaching epically tragic proportions. Yes, it will have a huge economic cost. We just have to collectively pay it. The alternatives are worse.

Going to War Coronavirus is both a public health problem and an economic problem, and the two work against each other. The measures we must take to save lives necessarily mean shutting down large parts of our consumer-driven economy. People are losing jobs and businesses are losing revenue.

Does that mean we simply ignore the virus and let people get sick and sometimes die? No, that won’t work, either. Our healthcare system can’t handle what would happen. It would collapse and be unable to help anyone with anything.

We need to sustain the economy for however long it takes to beat down the virus. That’s going to mean massive fiscal stimulus spending—multiple trillions of dollars’ worth. We are going to have to do for everyone the kind of things we have long done for natural disaster victims—emergency grants, subsidized loans, exemptions from rules, and more.

How will we pay for it? There are several ways but they all involve massive government debt and deficits that will shock us. We’re going to figure it out because we have no choice. The good news is, we’ve done this before. We fought and won World War II on a massive pile of debt.

Chart: Congressional Budget Office

Those who experienced the world war years as adults are mostly gone. We know their stories, though. Americans faced their common foe together, with shared sacrifice. Widows bought war bonds with their savings. Common goods were rationed. Every able-bodied male not needed for industry or farming was in uniform, and many women, too. Everyone sacrificed, and it worked.

We must sacrifice this time, too. It’s going to be inconvenient, expensive, and aggravating. We will exceed that World War II peak in the debt chart several years sooner than projected—possibly even this year. I don’t like it, either. But we have to do it.

We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance. It is going to explode. Let’s look at this data from homebase. A stunning 39% drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the US just in the last 10 days. Is there anybody who thinks that’s not going to increase?

Quoting from homebase:

Many of the hardest-hit cities—San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, New York—showed steep declines last week that align with the rise in coronavirus cases. Seattle was the first to see significant impact early last week, but other cities quickly caught up. The introduction of forced closures and shelter-in-place orders has furthered the slowdown. San Francisco, Boston, Pittsburg, New York, and San Jose currently have the greatest reduction in hours worked, down by more than 50% in each city on Tuesday.

3 out of 5 workers in San Francisco did not go to work last week. It will get worse. The reduction in work hours there was 64%. Middle America cities are in the 40 to 50% range.

Mike Shedlock has been tracking government data on employment. You can read his entire take at the link, but extrapolating the loss of jobs would mean an unemployment rate of close to 12% and a U-6 rate of 39%. Even if he is wrong by half, which I don’t think he is, that unemployment number ALREADY is staggering. We are literally down well over 10 million jobs and going to 20 million.

I know that Amazon is hiring 100,000 workers and giving them all a raise. Good on Jeff Bezos. Seriously. But that is only a fraction of 1% of the jobs we are losing. We the People, the government collectively, should step in to help the remainder of those people. The coronavirus is not their fault.

Sidebar: A hotel exec friend who runs 125 hotels has let 90–95% of the staff go. Literally tens of thousands. There are 54,000 hotels in the country. Do the math. Another friend handles the backroom for 2,200 dentists. 80% have shut down as they can’t get the masks and other things they need. There are 100,000 dentists with an average employment of maybe 10 people. Minimum 500,000 employees, plus dentists, without income. Average income per employee is $50,000. Dentists are critical but they have to have the basic gear to do it.

There are literally hundreds of examples. Dear gods…

Nobody in their right mind, given what might happen this weekend (if the rumors are true), can possibly think these employment numbers will not get worse. These are not recession numbers. They are depression numbers.

Let me be clear. The US is facing a deflationary depression. One cannot have the economic impacts we are seeing and think they will magically go away when the virus does. That’s not how economics and business work.

I am not the first person to say it, but we need something like a Marshall Plan for the US. I recognize that Europe and the rest of the world are struggling too. I get it. But the entire world will go into a deflationary depression if we do not solve the crisis in the US. Hopefully an eventually strong US can help lead the world out.

I am calling for significant quantitative easing or whatever you want to call it. I get the irony in that. The Federal Reserve is largely responsible for where we are today, keeping rates too low for too long, and the government running deficits way beyond nominal GDP. These are bad things.

But we have to deal with the situation as it is today. And today, much of our country is under stress and wondering how they’re going to feed their families. How do they pay their rent? Electric bills? 100 other items? Some of us can individually help our family and friends, but collectively we need to step in and help everyone.

Grousing about bad policies and mistakes of the past doesn’t solve the problems we face today. There is no need to punish the average American for bad Federal Reserve policy that they had no control over any more than we should punish them for the coronavirus. Maybe when this is all over we can think about how we ensure better policy in the future.

What Will It Take? There’s no single perfect answer; we will muddle through this, making mistakes along the way but hopefully learning from them. Any way you look at it, the numbers will be staggering.

Spending even a few trillion dollars to protect everyone’s income during the lockdown period isn’t crazy at all. I think it is the best option available. And we need to do the same for our business so they will be there when we get through this. Not just big business, but every small business as well.

President Trump said the other day that they will help the airlines because the virus is not the fault of the airlines. Quite true. Even though they spent 96% of their profits on stock buybacks. We absolutely have to have the airlines functional when this is over. But perhaps for companies that used their money for stock buybacks, that aid comes with an equity kicker for taxpayers. Nonvoting equity to be sure. But if they ask us to socialize the risk while they spend money on stock buybacks, it’s only fair to expect a little in return. Asking for outright grants? Get real guys (unless it goes directly to employees who were laid off).

Hotels, cruise ships, microbreweries and restaurants, hair salons, and a hundred thousand other small businesses need to survive in order to hire people when we reach the other side. It’s not about whether some business is “mission-critical” or vital to the economy. It’s about all the jobs those businesses provide. To the worker, a job at a cruise company is no different than a job at an airline company. It’s their income and the way they support their family.

Of course, we have to be smart about how we do this. We also have to be fast. Speed trumps everything. I know there is great concern someone might get something they don’t deserve. We all need to get over that. Right now, speed is more important. We have to help as many as possible, as fast as possible. We can sort out the mistakes later, and recover any excess payments via the tax system.

Furthermore, while I cannot reveal my sources, I know for a fact that the unemployment websites of some states have crashed. They simply weren’t built to handle the volume of applications.

We should help people first and businesses later. For one thing, helping people will help businesses by restoring their customers’ confidence and spending power. Some businesses are hurting more than others. The travel industry, restaurants, and many service businesses are in the worst position because they can’t make up lost revenue. This lockdown period means revenue is lost forever to them.

As soon as possible, we should help businesses who agree to use the money to pay their employees throughout this crisis. They actually know who is working and needs the money. Perhaps rent forbearance for a few months in conjunction with loans to landlords?

What we absolutely must avoid, in my view, is creating even the perception that regular workers are saving Wall Street or wealthy people in general. That mistake in the financial crisis years is still haunting us.

Fortunately, we can save companies and jobs without rewarding executive incompetence. It’s really not hard. We can save our economy without turning socialist. That’s not hard, either. But it will be expensive. I won’t get into specific plans because they’re evolving so fast. I may not endorse everything the government does, but I strongly endorse doing something rather than nothing.

We could be talking $4–$5 trillion. Everyone knows that I have been a deficit hawk and a scold on debt for over 40 years. I am the anti-Paul Krugman. Except right now, in this particular situation, I think Paul Krugman and I would agree. (I am seriously laughing at myself as I write that.) The stimulus that is being talked about today is not enough. It must be more. Much, much more.

How Things Are Going to Change and What We Should Do I can’t say this enough. We are facing the strong possibility of a deflationary depression. That cannot be allowed to happen. That is going to mean significant amounts of government debt, much of which will have to be monetized by the Federal Reserve. I fully get that is risking an inflationary episode as a result. I am not going to spend a great deal of time next explaining complex economic realities. In order to get inflation, there has to be a significant increase in demand along with an increase in the money supply. We are going to increase the money supply, but it is not clear that demand will significantly increase afterwards at anything like what we had before.

This crisis could emotionally scar a generation just as much as the Great Depression affected our grandparents and great-grandparents. Especially after the Great Recession just 10 years ago. The 1990 recession and the bubble blowing up in Japan, even accompanied by massive monetary stimulus on the order of what we are talking about now, did not result in inflation. The Japanese became savers. It literally changed their habits.

There are ways to control an inflationary episode. There is damn little you can do with a deflationary depression.

The entire episode will change the way we structurally organize our business lives. Companies are finding out they can do more remote work. Workers will enjoy that. We may not need as much office space. We are also going to find out that we might need less of certain things. I am not going to speculate on what. But that means a lot of jobs that existed pre-crisis are simply not going to come back in any viable form post-crisis. We cannot keep a small business going beyond a certain point. Pick a number. Three months? Six months? At some point if you as a business owner can’t figure it out, you have to lose government support. You and your employees will have to figure out something else to do. Not unlike it was a few months ago.

This is important. The country ramped up for World War II. But when the war was over, the soldiers came home and mustered out of the armed services. We cannot stay on a wartime footing for more than a few months after the end of this crisis. No permanent government programs. Period. I suggest that since we are blowing out the budget anyway, why not sell a few trillion dollars of 100-year, 1% bonds and use the entire proceeds on infrastructure projects over the next four years. No high-speed trains, just replacing our roads and bridges, water systems, and upgrading our grids.

This may seem radical, but the world can absorb those bonds along with the other bonds we will need to sell. The Federal Reserve is not allowed to go into a primary auction. But as soon as those bonds are sold, the Fed can buy them. Why can’t the Fed offer a 1% profit to anyone who would buy that bond and sell almost immediately? Open it up to individuals, if possible, but damn well make sure the banks participate. You don’t have to issue the entire amount on day one, just as the money is needed. Which reduces inflationary risk.

What that does is put people back to work—people whose jobs are no longer viable. And we actually get something for the infrastructure expenditures that will last for generations. Gods know we need to spend money on infrastructure. It is crumbling.

Let’s assume we keep everybody afloat for six months, although I sincerely hope it is not that long. An extreme lockdown could mean a few months, not six months. What do we do after the virus is contained and we have vaccines? UGH. I hate saying this. I truly do. But we may be in a period like at the end of WW2 where the Fed controlled the entirety of the yield curve. Maybe this is the Great Reset 1.0, or a good practice round. Let’s do what we can and learn from it. We could do the same thing with businesses. It’s an easy way to collect data and present it to the government. I am sure that Zuckerberg, Brin, et al. can whip that up on their own nickel as part of the war effort.

This may seem like it’s out of left field, but many unemployed workers are already using Facebook. I’ll bet you between Facebook, Google, SAP, and other Silicon Valley computer wizards, they could come up with a way to identify need and connect with the US Treasury to make sure checks go out. In a compliant way. Yes, some people will try to cheat the system. When we find them, we will need to discuss with them what Americans should do in the middle of a crisis. Cheating is not one of them. But I believe the bulk of Americans will do the right thing. Let’s make it quick and easy for them. We are now all too familiar with the concept of social distancing. We need to think about economic distancing. When we have economic partners who act irrationally, hiding data about a new virus for months, allowing it to spread worldwide, destroying supply chains in the meantime, how much do we want to rely on them in the future? Every major flu of the past 20 years has come out of China. Just saying…

This is a virus we can beat. It is not the zombie virus. But someday it could be, and this is a great test to learn how to deal with it. Let’s not forget these lessons. Countries that want to hide their data are candidates for economic distancing.

It should be obvious, but we need to think about supply chains. The US is running out of something as simple as mouth testing swabs. It seems the entire world supply is made by two companies. When I was asked where I thought those were, I replied “China.” It is worse. They are both in Milan, Italy. Milan is in lockdown. The swabs are on the dock. But they are in their own kind of quarantine. Let’s look at some positives. Jobs and manufacturing were already coming back closer to the marketplaces, albeit using robots and 3D printing. But that still means jobs. That will accelerate. Over time, that means a lot more jobs in North America and Europe. And better supply chains. We really need to look at where critical medical and socially necessary products are made. We can’t fix it all at once, but we should make a start.

Once the CDC and FDA stopped trying to control things, we’re seeing a “Cambrian Explosion” of innovation and drugs to deal with COVID-19. The Milken Institute has a list of 101 different vaccines and drugs that are in process or are being tested.

Freed of government regulation, doctors are finding that certain drugs already available can reduce the time a patient is sick from 11 days to 4 days. That is a huge increase in survivability. It turns out the malaria drug has a significant effect. Who knew? Well, pretty much nobody until doctors began throwing everything against the wall to see what would stick.

People are beginning to post do-it-yourself ventilators made from parts you can get at a hardware store. Put some of those automobiles and Boeing workers on an assembly line. History note: The first ventilators were made by Boeing for bombers in World War II. American ingenuity can help us a great deal.

Dr. Mike Roizen asked me to emphasize that there are things you can do to improve your own immunity. His top three are make sure you get a lot of sleep, eat healthy, and manage your stress. I would add as much social distancing as you practically can. Bill Ackman was right a few days ago on CNBC. Trump needs to lock this country down. I know for a fact that the National Guard is being mobilized in many places. I need to apologize to my friend Governor Greg Abbott of Texas, who was locking Texas down as I sent out my last letter.

BUT, and this is a big but, look at this real-time flight tracker as of 11 am Friday. Does this look like a matrix for spreading a virus to you? These are flights that are IN THE AIR right now.

Maybe we need to rethink what is necessary flight (as in freight and foods and medicine) and what can be avoided. For at least a few weeks. As the links I provided at the beginning showed, every day of lockdown makes an exponential difference.

I know for a fact that the National Guard is being mobilized in numerous states. One can only speculate about the reason but you don’t do that unless you are planning to take serious action. I hope by the time you get this letter, in less than a few hours after I hit the send button below, that has already been announced.

We Can Do This We can do this. And when I say “we,” I mean myself and my American investor-readers, because our country has blessed us greatly. We have the means to get through this. Not everyone does. In fact, relatively few do. We are the fortunate ones. This is our calling and our responsibility. Not only can we do it, we must do it.

If you are not in America, you can do it as well. I am pulling for everyone in the world. Every country is going to have to figure out how to deal with its own problems. We need a world that is thriving and growing so that humanity can move forward to a much brighter future.

Personal Thoughts I’ve given you a lot to think about today. These are my unvarnished thoughts. I want your thoughts as well. I do read every comment and letter. My staff makes sure I get one sometimes LONG Word document of each and every one. I do my best to answer.

You stay safe and healthy and maybe use the time, if you have some, to call friends and family. A phone call is clearly social distancing. But it is much appreciated and will make somebody’s day much better.

Hang in there, there is going to be so much opportunity as we come out of this. And all of the old opportunities that I’ve been saying and talking and writing about over the years are not going away. Just postponed for a few months. Have a great week and I’ll be back again.

As I was doing the last-minute edit, I find my daughter Amanda, who lost both her jobs yesterday, is in the hospital as she lost all feeling on her right side. In the CT scan now. Stress as her husband just went back to school and she was the primary breadwinner with two young girls? This stuff is all too real…

(Publisher’s Note: I am sad to inform you that as we were preparing this letter for publishing, we learned that Amanda has suffered a stroke. John, our thoughts and prayers are with you, Amanda, and your entire family. –Ed D’Agostino)

Your believing we’ll get through this analyst,

John Mauldin

John Mauldin

John Mauldin Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics

(Publisher’s Note: I am sad to inform you that as we were preparing this letter for publishing, we learned that Amanda has suffered a stroke. John, our thoughts and prayers are with you, Amanda, and your entire family. –Ed D’Agostino)

P.S. Want even more great analysis from my worldwide network? With Over My Shoulder you'll see some of the exclusive economic research that goes into my letters. Click here to learn more.

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Share Your Thoughts on This Article

From: Trial153
22-Mar-20
Yea Ryan its a joke, a funny one. While you were making jokes about our lack of equipment two of our medics last night transported an intubated/vented PT from one hospital to another. One those medics is father of little two girls. Those two guys had the balls to get that rig and provide care for someone they never met or seen before, someones husband, father or friend. Whats your next joke?

From: HH
22-Mar-20
Here are some things that you may not be in your 50m target radius. Congress is going to have to shut down or change is rules for votes. They can not keep travelling and meeting in large crowds. This is a constitutional problem.

Next is the courts and Supreme Court which may have a part to play here for the Nation or for POTUS to do some very politically and constitutionally radical things with respect to the Wuhan Virus.

Some folks may be very surprised if primaries are stopped, and voting is suspended or changed in its form. Many state and federal election law may be altered, a lot. Votes in Senate may have to be remote, no legal as of now. How do we change that?? Const. . . Issue!

We very well may have to amend to Constitution in the middle of this. Then, possibly give the Executive Branch temporary Supreme Powers. We are in a bigger fight than just the Virus and the Economy. We maybe in a fight to keep the Constitution in its current form.

No Doubt this nation will be forever changed by this China Virus and the that will have to be taken in to account when we beat this thing.

No question we are heading down a path this Nation has never taken. Ever.

Stand Strong Hunter Gatherers of the Nation

K~

From: woodguy65
22-Mar-20
Does Mike in CT post somewhere else -FB? He has referenced updating his prior post, I would love to tune in and see what he has to say if anyone knows.

From: crestedbutte
22-Mar-20

From: crestedbutte
22-Mar-20

From: crestedbutte
22-Mar-20

crestedbutte's Link
Habitat for Wildlife...wow that has to be the longest post in Bowsite history! While Mike CT’s commentary above is very good info....I trust the guy that was on Joe Rogans show a couple of weeks ago a heck of a lot more than Mike CT.

The link I provided is the Joe Rogan Experience #1439 YouTube Podcast. Joe had one of the worlds foremost Infectious Disease “Medical Detective” experts on his 3/10 show to talk about Corona Virus, CWD and Lyme Disease.

This guy doesn’t use scare tactics but has enough research experience and confidence in what he knows to deliver his knowledge and info. as straight talk and isn’t about to sugar coat any of the info. or his opinions.

I have listened to it all and have broken it down by the sections noted above for the benefit of others if they are only interested in hearing what he has to say about Corona, CWD or Lyme per the following:

Corona Virus: Start-21:00; 31:45-1:14; 1:30-Finish

CWD: 21:00-31:45

Fecal Transplants (Interesting topic didn’t know such a thing existed?): 1:14-1:15

Lyme Disease: 1:15-1:30 (interesting case example on how easily ticks spread from Wisconsin to Minnesota and throughout the NE. Also, very glad I live in a state where controlled burns are the norm). Thankful I hunt in the KS Flint Hills!

In a nut shell during these times: Eat healthy, get sleep/rest, if over-weight start losing and control your blood pressure (if you have issues with that). In the future we as a country need to stockpile medical equip. and supplies to help with future outbreaks, spend more $$$ on medical/vaccine research and keep researching and planning even when the all clear is eventually given!

Interesting quote this expert made. “Right now, with no known vaccine...controlling this virus is like trying to control the wind!” Take care all!

From: goelk
22-Mar-20
WV Mountaineer any underline health problems?

From: Busta'Ribs
22-Mar-20
I can't believe I was arguing with HH over baiting hogs a couple weeks ago, man how times have changed. Now, I'm refreshing and hoping to see that he's posted again, because he seems to be one of the few that has added info that I can actually use to protect myself and my family. Thank you HH, and keep it coming!

From: RYAN
22-Mar-20
“Yea Ryan its a joke, a funny one. While you were making jokes about our lack of equipment two of our medics last night transported an intubated/vented PT from one hospital to another. One those medics is father of little two girls. Those two guys had the balls to get that rig and provide care for someone they never met or seen before, someones husband, father or friend. Whats your next joke?”

I have no joke..I do however have statistics. We now have 400 deaths and 38,757 positive cases, that makes our mortality rate 1.03%. It was 1.29 percent yesterday.... it keeps dropping day after day. Germany’s mortality rate is .37% because they have been testing since day one. The flu is 0.1%. So yes it is more deadly than the flu it appears, but are you screaming from the rooftops every flu season about the 20-50,000 people that died?? Do we shut down the economy each flu season??? Absolutely not

I’m all for medical personnel getting PPE and N95 masks but if they are under the age of 50 with no underlying conditions then they have a very small risk of any complications if they do catch covid. Also, there have been zero...repeat that zero deaths of children under the age of 9 on the entire planet, so his 2 little girls will be just fine. In fact the flu that is going around this year has had an unusually high hospitalization rate of children under the age of 4....way more than covid. People will die...it’s a part of life. 3 million people will die of all causes in the US this year alone. If this virus was deadly to children then I would be freaking out too, but it’s not. I’m a health 38 yo with 2 children under the age of 6, my odds and probably yours too are over 99% of being just fine. You’re going to be fine...no need to panic.

And by the way my wife is an ER Physician and I’m a Clinical Lab Scientists..And neither of us are worried at all about dying from covid.

From: Busta'Ribs
22-Mar-20
Ryan, I think Trial was referring to the post you made about hunting Javalina in an N95 mask and PPE. Everybody handles stress differently. Some joke. Some can’t handle jokes when people are dying. Thanks to you and your wife for her service on the front lines. Everyone in the ER is a hero today. Stay smart and stay safe. Protect or Infect.

From: Mike in CT
22-Mar-20
Jerry,

Thanks for checking in; it's been an extremely busy week for me and I'm just getting caught up on researching up-to-date statistics and crunching the number.

If (and this is a big if given credibility issues) it appears that covid-19 has peaked in China and the curve is definitely flattening out; this peak appears to be somewhere between week 6 & 7 from the Jan 22nd timeframe where cases began growing exponentially. To try and ballpark a parallel as to where the US is relative to this staging we're finishing up week 4 of that kind of growth in active cases.

It's interesting to note that Italy did not take the same steps as the US relative to initiating travel bans and they've finished up week 6 of exponential growth and their curve is still trending up; I hope that's not indicative of continued growth along the same trajectory but it does highlight the need to break the infective cycle by stopping the influx of possible carriers (or symptomatic patients).

As of this morning the total US death toll was 414 and our CFR (case fatality rate) was 1.27% (China's is now down to 4.0%, Italy unfortunately has a CFR of 9.3%)

If our numbers hold I regret that we'll likely add another 403 deaths to our present count and I certainly don't want to minimize any loss but if the measures we've taken have had the mitigating impact health officials have hoped they would we may not see the kind of death toll some had feared possible. It's still early and I'm tempering my optimism as there are a lot of variables that could shift the present picture.

There is a lot of work going on in not just vaccine development but a number of possible treatment options. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (Tarrytown, NY) is working on some very promising antibody therapy options. The company has isolated hundreds of neutralizing antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 in mice and hopes to have the top 2 selected and ready for clinical studies by summer.

I'm aware of other research involving sera from patients who have recovered from covid-19 but from my limited research into this option I think it's further away.

The antibody option will have 2 uses; first it can be administered to "at-risk" people pre-exposure as a vaccine of sorts or it can be used as a treatment for those already infected.

I'm sure most of you have heard about Remdesivir, an antiviral originally developed for use against Ebola virus; it is not currently approved for use against SARS-CoV-2 but it does appear to possess the ability to interfere with viral replication. Gilead Sciences did file an IND (Investigational New Drug) application with the FDA and that agency did approve the study of the drug in Feb 2020. Gilead is working with the government on authorization for compassionate use of the drug in infected patients.

Hydrochloroquine (and chloroquine) are also being evaluated as possible treatment options (in combination with Azithromycin (Z-Pac)). As these agents are FDA approved they can be prescribed by a physician though this would be considered "off-label" usage (under such conditions there would ordinarily be liability issues for bad outcomes but I believe there are discussions ongoing about removing potential liability given the severity of the infection).

We should brace ourselves for this virus recirculating (possibly displaying similar seasonality to Influenza) so the treatment and vaccine options we're working on now may not have an immediate large impact on present cases but they will position us well to deal with a future outbreak.

Again, best wishes for the continued good health and safety of all here and all you hold dear.

22-Mar-20
Gee. 53 percent of NY cases are between 18 and 50. So being young means nothing. I think the point Ryan, is the risk of spreading it, to those who are vunerable. Heck 40 percent of the population does not get a flu shot. I am not in panic mode, but my head is not in the sand either. I will do what they ask me to do, for the good of all

From: Trial153
22-Mar-20
Ryan, thats called stat vomit, slightly less then worthless. Dont hurt your self when you go cherry picking next time

From: Busta'Ribs
22-Mar-20
Mike, if you compare with China, they essentially imposed Martial Law and complete lockdown in infected cities, right? When I went to the grocery store yesterday (with N95 mask and sterile gloves), everyone was shopping as normal on a Saturday morning (and looking at me like I was crazy). So can we realistically expect our “peak” to be the same as China, if we don’t take the same drastic social limitation measures that they did?

From: HH
22-Mar-20
One of the very best things you Brothers of the bow can get is Hyrdo Peroxide at th 27-30% level and cut it with good clean water at 1/2oz HP : 32oz water in spray bottle. CDC also recommends it. My Sis is a Pharma Scientist in CT and they use it in lab for the same.

It is powerful and it will burn your skin unless you dilute. It is odorless and will kill the Wuhan quick. Do all substances you bring from out your house to inside. Car, bags, groceries, CC cards, hands etc.

Not to fear Gallantly will we show the world how USA will turn the Infection vs Death rate on its head. US will forever put to rest the Tale of how EU medicine is the best in world.

As we fight the China Bug never forget who let this thing loose on the world. For what real reason? When we heal up from this the world and US must hold the CHI-Coms accountable in full.

Stay Safe Hunter Gathers

K~

From: Ambush
22-Mar-20
My dad died several years ago from complication of alzheimer's. At the end of a week in hospital, he just quietly quit breathing and gone.

A couple years ago, I was sitting by my Mom's bedside where she was dying from cancer. About four in the morning her breathes became farther apart, then just quit. I was walking back to my hotel room, where some other family members were staying and stopped to get a coffee. The counter person was friendly and cheerful. People out early were going about their business totally unaware of my circumstance. The hotel clerk wished me a good day as I went by. I found it oddly strange that they weren't subdued or sad to even though I knew they didn't know. Their lives were normal and going on as they did yesterday.

Is it sad that people are going to die from Covid. Of course. Is it sad that people are going to die from a stroke, heart attack or car accident? Certainly! Is one more sad for those left then the other?

I'm not making light of the situation. But I do think the hysteria and panic being amplified by anyone with a platform is doing more harm than good. I'm half way through a two week isolation and my wife and I are both honoring that. As soon as it's over, she'll be going back to work as a nurse (retired) because they called for that. She's been working the past thirty years with chronic kidney failure patients. The only way out of her program is a transplant (which means you're in another one of her programs) or you die. She's said final "goodbyes" to a lot of people.

Death is sad. But to life live like death is all there is is also sad. My kids and grandkids will have to deal with my death (I hope) . But my death won't stop the world, or my town or even my friend's and family's lives.

You may think it callous, cold, unfeeling or even stupidly selfish that I am planning for the upcoming hunting seasons or camping and fishing trips with my grandkids. I don't.

I'm not sure who it was that said : "If I knew the world was going to end next week, I would still plant this apple tree today." Good advice. IMO.

From: Mike in CT
22-Mar-20
Chris,

I think it will come down to how seriously people in states that aren't in lockdown (as of today I believe it's just CA, NY & CT) take practicing standard precautions and minimizing socializing, especially in large groups.

I'm optimistic based on the number of new cases diagnosed relative to the increased capacity of testing; it's early and things can change but it was encouraging to not see a larger increase in the number of confirmed cases.

The other significant factor is the difference in overall health & hygiene levels between China & the US; in some areas the differences are pretty stark and of course, we don't have "wet markets" (where live animals are sold alongside food & vegetables).

Some of these physical factors that can increase risk of transmission simply don't exist in the US.

From: skull
22-Mar-20
I can’t believe there is people still not taking this serious , is not a flu, this is what happens in Italy where people didn’t take it serious

March 22 Italy Infected 59.138, 5.560 more than yesterday, 10.4% increase, 5.476 deaths, 651 more than yesterday, 13.5% increase, still climbing, are people even going to realize that this is not a flu, WHO has declare a pandemic, I’m sure they know more than any one here

From: HH
22-Mar-20
The USA numbers will most likely surpass all. Just from looking at the modeling. That is of course and unless Africa does not see some of its higher population nations get infected.

Just think we do the hard stop end of next week. Bite that bullet and we can hole up for 3 weeks while testing gets ramped to full output we can get on top this bugger. Then, recover for a couple weeks and go right back in a hard stop for two weeks we can buy more time.

Hard to go Full Stop on a 20 Trillion $ economy. If you cant save both thats the one I would pitch first.

K~

From: Ambush
22-Mar-20
And concerning “collapsing” the healthcare system in the short term; what do you think the health care systems will be like in the long run if entires economies collapse. How many people will die from all our “regular” diseases when they are in shambles because nobody, including government, have to ability to pay to keep them afloat.

No company, no hospital, no doctor or nurse or dentist or any body is going to be providing services for which they won’t can’t get paid. That includes farmers and plumbers too.

From: RYAN
22-Mar-20

RYAN's embedded Photo
RYAN's embedded Photo
I didn’t say you couldn’t get it if you were under the age of 50...I said you should have very few complications(ie death) if you get it. Here are Italy’s first 1017 deaths. 6 were under the age of 50...0 were under the age of 30. The case fatality rate was 0.2 for 30-50 year olds, meaning you have a 99.8% chance of not dying under the age of 50. China’s numbers were very similar if you would like for me to post those as well. China had a total of 3260 deaths so far...how can you see the US with a better healthcare system and a more spread out population losing 100’s of thousands of people. That doesn’t make sense to me

Trial...if you have statistics that contradict mine then I’m all ears.

I try to be optimistic and not panic. Mike in CT seems to be slightly optimistic...he’s a professional. I’m just giving my opinion based on how I see it.... if that is somehow a bad trait then so be it.

From: skull
22-Mar-20
RYAN so according to you’re statement anyone older than 50 is okay to die , is that what you’re saying?

22-Mar-20
Not that I watch, listen, or read some of the sources reporting this much but, according to news outlets, 99% of those that died in Italy had other underlying health problems. Ryan, there is nothing you have said out of line or implying it is ok for a certain group to die. Some people just look for reasons to be offended

From: Trial153
22-Mar-20
Hanging your hat on the fact that it's killing the elderly at a higher rate, to make the point that we are going to far to mitigate the situation. That's pretty low class. Glad I was raised with more respect than that and I know for a fact I'm not alone here. The Italians paying the price for caring about/for their parents and grandparents. Li rispetto

From: skull
22-Mar-20

skull's embedded Photo
skull's embedded Photo
Here is the latest

From: Ambush
22-Mar-20
I think it’s hyperbolic to say people that don’t totally agree with you, don’t care about the elderly. That’s a bit classless as well, or not.

The “civil” is going out of civilized pretty quick.

From: Ambush
22-Mar-20
Skull, what does that pie represent? It means little without context.

From: skull
22-Mar-20
Ambush that’s the statistic from yesterday in Italy

From: Scooby-doo
22-Mar-20
Listen folks we have some idiots out there not practicing social distancing, those people are our biggest threat. Right here in NY we have people hanging out in the parks and walking the streets in groups, Florida has the kids on the beach again Social Distancing is our number one defense in slowing the spread of this virus!! Please do yourself and everyone else a favor and practice social distancing, I am no brain surgeon or rocket scientist but even I know it can only help!! Shawn

From: sasquatch
22-Mar-20
One good thing I see coming of this

Maybe in the future people will learn to actually SAVE. We have been living as a delirious debt ridden society for far too long. The average citizen spends way above their means on luxury things because hey “I can afford to note”.

Hardly anyone actually OWNS anything other than debt and bills!

The older generations never had a whole lot, but what they did have was actually THEIRS!

I have some rentals and it’s just amazing what people drive and how they live yet are renting a house and have no plans to do anything different other than buy a new car every 2 years.

Savings is what’s drives the country and it needs to return, badly. We need to in some way teach people to be responsible for themselves that a bailout isn’t always gonna be on its way when something happens.

22-Mar-20
It takes a lot of effort to twist whats been said into some of the accusations being thrown around. We all want as little carnage as possible. Let's do our part as individuals and pray first and foremost, help those in need when given the opportunity, and let things fall where they may. Not one ounce of worry or arguing is going to change the outcome.

From: TreeWalker
22-Mar-20
There will be an "echo" outbreak spike, likely around August. Unless a vaccine is developed and approved, this could cycle for another three years. Nothing is known except when you shelter in space you slow the grow of infections and deaths. You slow the ancillary deaths of non-C19 patients that lose access to medical facilities. All this is good. But, make no mistake, the echo will arrive late summer to early autumn since the vast majority of us will still be able to develop C19. Newborns will be able to develop C19. We have a ways to go before will be normal and the economy will take a couple of years to turn around. A lot of small businesses will shutter as cash flow runs out. The light is at the end of a very long tunnel but we will make it through this tunnel eventually. Hunts will be impacted and international hunts will be greatly impacted.

From: JL
22-Mar-20
Scooby.....can't speak for other beaches but the one here in Daytona has alot of folks on it. The schools are closed and many businesses are temporally closed. That is why folks are hanging out at the beach....open air. I see mostly families, mom's/dad's kids, etc. There were some bikers but they left. There were spring breakers but I think they are leaving if they haven't left already. Many folks are keeping spaced out....spraying and wiping. I was at the gas station today and folks were disinfecting their hands after pumping gas. I was out fishing again this morning and ALOT of boaters were out. In my non-professional medical opinion.....I would think sunshine and saltwater would be beneficial to help with any virus mitigation. Other things I see going on, all of the restaurants are either closed or take out only. Churches are online services now. I was at the grocery store today and seen everyone wiping down their carts and hands. Folks were keeping their distances in the aisles. Many are wearing masks and/or latex gloves. As of today our county has 12 confirmed cases. Considering all of the out of town folks coming and going for bike week and spring break....I thought that was pretty good.

Shifting to the govt side of things....I was watching the daily press briefing by the Prez, VP and the rest of the team a second ago. That was the first one I have watched. I found it very encouraging businesses are stepping up, calling the Prez/VP/Team and saying they can make or manufacture things that are needed like ventilators, masks, etc. That reminds me of what happened during the beginning of WWII. Businesses stepping up production of needed war materials. In this case....the virus war. There is a new virus test kit that may come out soon that takes only 45 minutes to get the results. If they could make that for home use....that would be fantastic. A good time to own that company's stock. So I think there are some things happening that are happening that are encouraging.

From: RYAN
22-Mar-20
Where did I say it was ok for old people to die??? I have 2 parents in their 70’s and I always go back home to crappie fish in May....I won’t be going this year because I don’t want my parents to catch something that I gave them. My whole issue with this social distancing is that we are requiring 20-50 year olds to stay at home instead of work when they have very little risk of dying..why can’t we have shelter in place orders for people over 50 or people over 60?? Is it not easier for a retired person with money saved to limit their social interaction than it is for say a 30 year old with an average paying job, student loans and young children?? If we keep the economy closed for an extended period of time there will be millions of jobs lost and hundred of small businesses that go out of business. This has real world consequences that could be worse than the loss of life from the virus. Homelessness, crime, drug use, depression are all things that increase with loss of jobs...why can’t we compromise and keep part of the workforce working while sheltering those that are vulnerable. I don’t see this as idiotic or classless as some of my fellow bowsiters have called it.

From: HH
22-Mar-20
We will keep part of the work force heavily employed.. Just not the full range of id service economy.

We may meed the yoyng folks un a big wAy. They may well be the key. They maybe redirected into service to country into all essential sectors. Civilian draft so to speak. No college deferrals. Non open.

You post is very well taken 20-45 yr old will be indeed key to the Great Recovery.

K~

From: crestedbutte
22-Mar-20
HH....I will just put it out there right now and don't care if you disagree or think ill will of me....we are FU***D if we leave this in the hands of the skinny pants and guy liner wearing, living with their mother's and gaming all day Millennials. They are the personification of the Wussification of America!

23-Mar-20
I’m 45 and never wore a pair of skinny jeans in my life. :^)

From: crestedbutte
23-Mar-20
WV....OK then. A Gen X’er like yourself shouldn’t be wearing guy liner, living with and playing Fortnite against mom every night, HA! Wake up Merica!

23-Mar-20
:^)

From: HH
23-Mar-20
This may just be the world event that builds another great generation Justin? Our last one was won by both young and old and run by an old guy, FDR.

Anyhow we cut it our young men and women have a very important roll to play and we must ensure that duty is adhered too.

Not sure what the Hell's up with the leadership in house and senate? They better figger which way they are going to go. Also not sure how you keep 90% of employees in nation paid on GVT $? They ought to hurry because we got about 7 more days and DJT will do what he said he would. Is it they just cant do anything productive or do they want to kick-start this nation from a blank canvas? You cant have both.

They have 5 or seven Senator's out of the quarem now. They address this very quickly as well.

K~

From: PECO
23-Mar-20
Bunch of young kids getting drunk in Florida, not caring if they get the virus. Not smart enough to understand they will take it home to their family, friends, neighbors, and community. Yeah, they will save us.

From: HH
23-Mar-20
Guess I just hAve seen more young Americans give all they had for us. I know they can and will. Like most kids they just need a kick in the 4th point of contact to get going.

States are already asking ther legislatures to modify election law this morning.

Your going to see many more and probably both the DNC, GOP and US election commission.

US just bought a chit ton of private equity bonds. So, far it did put a ripple in this suck hole of the mRkets.

K

23-Mar-20
The political haggling is a joke and testament to how pathetic both sectors of the house have become. It kills me. The bill was open ended for discussion and negotiation. I’ll give the republicans that. And, as usual, the democrats stood their ground because the allotment of money didn’t pad their agendas. All the while Americans are suffering. It’s no different then everyday life in America.

I’ve got faith in the younger generations. I think it’s coming to a head. I think a lot of people have are over reacting on individual levels. However, if the worst case did happen, we will alright as a country. People always find a way to persevere when given the opportunity too.

On a side note, discussing this with my brother over the phone, he has neighbors that venture back to Italy yearly. It’s where they are from and where their family still lives. According to them, their home country has been fighting this since October. If that’s the case, then we might here for a while.

It’s funny to me that the more we find out, the more it aligns with what knowledgeable people are saying. This might be a longer run then first anticipated. And, the way people react is going to be the difference on how we all look back at this.

23-Mar-20
There is no doubt our nation will rise up to the challenge, again. Enough young and old will do what is right. I Believe!

It is the character of this nation, always has been by the Grace of God and let's pray that He continues to guide us and support us.

From: HH
23-Mar-20
Yes, Justin there's alot more to this than meets the eye. There are plenty of guys here in US retired who worked for our GVT specifically as China analysts and collectors who think this bug was on ground and dispersed far longer than in was on the ground loose in China.

Does not matter now as we have other priorities save our folks and our GDP. Then, there will be the part after where things will have to be made whole. That may take just as much courage as the fight we are in now, more possibly.

K

23-Mar-20
This is some serious shit just because it hasn’t come into your town as of yet ! This is affecting the whole world places with temps n the upper 80s The viral guys are more concerned on how this can mutate into a more lethal virus !! The world is being affected yes death tolls is almost 4 percent but imagine 4 percent of the world population ! This virus should have never gotten so far so fast another reason why the scientist are so concerned ! Let's pray with Godspeed we figure this out! . In sept will we even be able to afford a hunting tag or fuel for the rigs! So many put of work at the current moment God bless all

From: HH
23-Mar-20
Most Flu's to less lethal strains but this has never been on earth before.

Starting to worry about Hawaii. They just pushed mandatory 14 day isolation back another 5 days. Gov Inge is way over his head. Lucky he has a Lt Gov that has a few more brain cells. Oahu is full of the Wuhan. His address last nite to the state was very alarming. Not sure why he told they state "by end of April we could have 45K in cases".

Not sure the guy is still functioning at acceptable level. They may need to have LT Gov take over or just pass the Key to the Feds and US Forces Hawaii at Fort Shafter.

K~

From: happygolucky
23-Mar-20
We don't know the actual death rate in the US because we don't have a clue how many people have contracted and overcome the virus. With test kits just becoming available in any numbers the last week or so, many people will have already dealt with the virus. I feel the death rate is below what is advertised because I feel the contracted cases and survival is far above what is known.

The 15 day isolation is a nice idea and start but it won't be enough. It really needs to be around 60 days to allow all the supplies needed to be manufactured and properly distributed. A constant influx is needed for a long time and a mass surplus should now be stored by the Feds for the next time the wrong person eats the wrong bat.

I personally consider all jobs to be "essential" jobs. Income is essential to everyone. People with jobs that are open need to be allowed to work IMHO. I'm 57 and am more concerned about the economy and people losing their jobs and the long term ramifications of that than I am getting the virus (speaking of me getting the virus).

From: Scooby-doo
23-Mar-20
JL, you just proved my point, open space is bad if it is filled with people. No group of people is good, in or outside. People have to actually understand the restrictions and not just assume what they hear is ok.. I am still in quarintine as the Health Dept is behind in gettin out test results. I am hoping to hear by tomorrow as I would love to get back to work as I work in the health industry and am an essential employee. Shawn

From: Bowfreak
23-Mar-20
God Bless you Shawn. Hopefully you get negative results and can get back to doing what you do. I am sure your services are badly needed.

From: JL
24-Mar-20

JL's embedded Photo
JL's embedded Photo

JL's Link
Scooby....I went metal detecting yesterday at the beach and there were only a few people there. Everyone was spaced out. Late yesterday afternoon I went to go catch some bait to go fishing in the boat. The usually crowded roads were noticeably empty. The testing has increased alot which of course reveals more cases. I think folks are still doing stuff because the weather is real good (sunny, hot). However folks are alot more aware of their surroundings and situational awareness. You do not see large crowds or groups of folks anymore....they are doing that social distancing thing or staying home. Me personally....I'm trying not to get too overly excited about anything. Just staying away from people, staying out of stores, doing things by myself and watching the sun rises. We'll get thru this.....

On a more positive note, I just watched the CEO of Ford doing an interview. Ford is already in production of respirators, masks and shields. They are also teaming with 3M on PPE production. It's good to see the private sector take the ball and run with this. I suspect more good news will be coming out soon.

I attached a link from FEMA as they try to combat the many rumors out there. Apparently the false rumors are so rampant they had to start a website trying to combat them....say it ain't so. Below is from the local newspaper.

"As testing increases statewide, Florida reports a 667% increase since Monday in confirmed coronavirus cases.

The Florida Department of Health Monday announced 220 new Florida coronavirus cases, including two in Volusia County and two in Flagler County.

The report brings the total number of positive coronavirus cases to 1,227 statewide, a 667% increase from one week ago, when FDOH reported 160 cases.

The FDOH also reported four new deaths from coronavirus, bringing the total number of deaths statewide to 17. "

From: HH
24-Mar-20
Oahu alert to shut er down last night. They are freaked out. The Gov is a super terd for sure. Think the guy is listening to Neil (draft dodger) Abercrombie from the Old Guy Muppet Balcony? Friday will be Full Stop unless it chamges again.

All non essential work has stopped as of last night. This is going to be interesting when the natives go Tribal.

K`

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