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Randy and Cory did a really good podcast on point creep. It’s going to get way worse before it gets better. The only way I see it getting better is to just get rid of preference and bonus points all together. Bring on the idaho system!
as long as the money flows no incentive for states to change the system. you have thousands and thousands of cash flush individuals paying into preference Wy point system at $100 /$150 with no chance of every drawing a preference point tag for some species, and their chance of drawing the random tag are minuscule. and new one come into the folly each year. I cant figure their motive other than donating to Fish and Game dept or they never stop to figure the situation out.
It’s because MOST people don’t get it, they aren’t that good at math, don’t do the research that us serious guys on BS do, don’t understand the system(s). They only see the “can’t win if you aren’t in” stuff in all the websites, magazines, tv shows, app services.
The states are taking advantage those points and generating much needed revenue. I don’t see why any of them would ever change as long as point fees would keep coming in. They don’t care about the individual hunters. They care about the $. Plain and simple, anything else is lip service.
Coming from hunting in the northeast where I could get 6 deer tags a season without even trying (and for less than 100$). I can't fathom doing preference points. Not only for the money aspect, but I can't imagine waiting 15 years for points to build up and going on a hunt and not getting anything, possibly not even seeing anything! I just wouldn't be able to handle that.
It's all a crap shoot! I've put in for a mediocre unit here in Idaho for over 30 years & still haven't drawn it yet! Would I be for preference points, hell ya! Guys who do not want preference points think they'll draw several times in 20 years, good luck!
It's not creeping, it's leaping.
Unless you have a hard application cap that spans all states its isnt going to change. You cant have guys dropping 25 or 30 apps a year and think that there isnt going to be point creep an over all piss poor draw odds.
Hell, I had 20 in the pot for mountain goat last year! Hunted my a-double-S off and finally found a small bunch several days after my last day. They were at least 2 more days away...
Also had an elk tag that had taken 13 years to draw. Hunted hard for 10 days. No arrows fired there either.
Yeah. Had a bad year last year...
Guess that’s why they call it hunting.
This year, I’ve already returned two tags that I had drawn with 16 points to keep the points. Had to donate the NR costs of the tags to do so. Burned 22 points for antelope in CO (would have been 23 if I hadn’t turned in a tag a couple of years back. Hopefully arrow a decent one this year.
Been playing the games in a lot of states for a while now. Frustrating at times but usually pulling a couple of good tags a year. Kind of kicking myself in the butt for missing a few apps here and there in a few states for different species over the years and not sitting on maximum points...
Soccer23, since you now live in CO, hopefully you are building points here. Won't be long before elk is all draw like deer is now.
It’ll be interesting, I suspect all us late 20s early 30s guys are either going to get screwed over or draw a bunch of amazing hunts when it tops out?
If the projections and trends are correct and the overall number of hunters decreases by 30% in the next 12-15 years, you young guys may see a new Golden Age of hunting....
Coming from Indiana, point systems have been a serious advantage for planning hunts. That said, I'm a middle tier guy and don't hold out for premium units. Point creep still exists, but at a much lower level. Also got in on the ground floor compared to most. Have drawn the majority of my western tags with single digit points. Tags like Utah LE elk, Wyoming bull moose and Colorado bighorn sheep took a few more points.... :^)
Why not build a few points every few years In several states and hunt different states every year when you draw? Otherwise grab over the counter tags in the Odd Years. Seem like the points system is better suited for that.
Just wish anytime you hunted a bull in a state you didn't receive a preference point that year. You can go hunt a cow and not lose a point but not bulls. Also the 7 year reset idea is pretty good as well.
Perhaps fewer future hunters, and keeping more efficient weapons out of the archery seasons will not be such bad idea.
If you want to plan a future hunt for Elk, points are still meaningful in AZ, CO, WY. As long as you don't cling to hopes for only the highest-demand hunts. OTOH, starting to gain points for elk in Nevada or Utah may never yield you anything, and you can't ever plan for a hunt to happen in any given year. Same is true for NM & ID, where there's no point system, so any hunt with even modest demand will be drawn completely at random. No planning possible. It's doubtful that the states with points would ever switch to a random draw, but they might do more tweaking and more hybridizing in the future. The point states will be very resistant to dropping those systems and losing that income from all their "addicts".
I’ve been building points in most western states for all species for the last 21 years. I can always draw a hunt or two every year and also have a shot at the long shot hunts as well (sheep, moose,etc). I obviously like points and I realize each state is different with some systems better than others. When I began I felt like I was miles behind and would never catch up. Now that 20 years has gone by I am glad I started when I did and wished I started a year or two earlier.
Zero chance it will get better. Stay the same MAYBE because our economy is going to take a dump like we may never se again. Also states are quickly realizingthe cash cow NR are. NR prices will continue to increase drastically - which will help. A little.
What is I have seen in my 20 plus years aggressively applying is nuts. Supply and demand.
GET rid of the male/antler/horn addiction and it is EASY to get good tags.........................
I don’t think there is an easy answer for any state on point creep, If you did a reset there would be all kinds of lawsuits. I agree you would need to have a hybrid draw of some sort to appease those who rightfully have been collecting points and waiting their turn.
I don’t think there is an easy answer for any state on point creep, If you did a reset there would be all kinds of lawsuits. I agree you would need to have a hybrid draw of some sort to appease those who rightfully have been collecting points and waiting their turn.
It's limited supply with high demand. This will never change. We can bitch about it all we want, it's never going to change. It's good that we have states with easy draws so that those that want can hunt every year.
It will change, in fact it will likely get worse if scoped crossbows ever get into all of the western states archery seasons. Scoped crossbows would increase the hunter demand, and also increase the harvest per tag issued.
No elk tag should be 0 points. That's the root of the creep problem.
i have 16 points or more in several states but i been fortunate enough to be able to hunt other species in other states like Alaska , south dakota , OTC colorado etc, over the years so it has not felt so bad. now to hunt the states that i have built all my points in have recently started to bother me, after i draw the desired tags i have been waiting for , i will not wait 10 plus years for tags anymore, one time was enough. plus the age thing is creeping up on me like the point game. Tom
Beyond the math, the blatant corruption within the Utah system has soured my view on points more than I thought possible. Netflix could make a version of Narcos and use the same template.
I submit about 40 applications across the country, but there are certainly hunts I don't put in for (ever or dropped out). Some don't make sense and I don't think you can just look at bad odds.
If there's bad odds and it's free or almost free, what do you have to lose? If it's bad odds, but the tag is phenomenal and it doesn't cost an arm and a leg, then you have little to lose. If it's an ok to good tag and the cost is high and the odds low, then I start to run the math.
CO and WY have some species/tags that are not worth chasing, IMO. Too much cost for "never-gonna-happen" odds or just not the quality to make the money worth it.
Your personal hunting goals/desires also play in to it. Every specie holds a different level of importance to every different hunter. Also, some hunters do more out-of-state hunts than others.
(EDIT: I drew zero tags last year and 3 tags this year)
The guys that are old enough to have gotten in early on the points scheme mostly are fans of points systems. The guys like me who are younger and didn’t get in ground level don’t like the points system. It’s that simple really, if you’ve got the points it’s working, if you don’t it’ll most likely never work, simple math tells me that.
I apply in most western states where I can draw some tags that are “mid” tier units, and since it costs me little more $ to apply for the point building species I do so knowing I’ll probably never draw them. I certainly don’t waste my $ applying for things such as WY moose or sheep, but in states like AZ where I’m already paying for license to hunt OTC deer I throw my name into the pipe dream species because it’s not a big financial commitment to do so.
Simple research will tell you whether you should or shouldn’t be building points in the $$$ traps.
Well I'm gonna throw my 2 cents in here for free. This is gonna sound like a rant, will thats basically all it is. Bottom line if you love to hunt you will do what it takes! Period
What I see is greed plain and simple. Not only from the states but from hunters as well. Not too long ago there was a post about whether Colorado should go all draw and do away with otc archery. I voiced my opinion there too and few cared or didn't think it applies. Point creep will only get worse because units are gradually going away from otc. As a nonresident I had never applied for points because of different reasons. One, im middle aged and knew I would be too old to hunt by the time I drew a trophy tag. Two, I was content to hunt the otc unit I been hunting for the past ten years or so. And last reason its a pain in the arse to keep up with regs and changes of the draw process of multiple states.
Guess what, my son and I realize what's on the horizon. Our unit is prolly next. So what is the logical thing to do. Collect points. We are not the only ones, many others will be doing the same. You think that it won't affect things but it will. States still want the money. Case in point, look at how many leftover tags there were for the units that just went draw only. They aren't limited entry like trophy units, just a way to collect entry fee's and print tons of tags that don't help overcrowding at all. But quess what? All the guys that hunted there and were content with otc now just joined the point creep pool. Crazy to apply there as 1st choice when there's plenty leftover tags right?
Then on to the greed part. I will step on some toes here for sure. Residents want nonresidents tag numbers reduced percentage wise so they are more likely to be successful on an annual basis. The same guys that apply for multiple states and complain about the odds there or that it cost them more in other states than there home state. But think nonresidents should foot the bill for the difference in generated revenue. Sucks to be from a state that has no elk, moose, sheep etc. This leads to the next problem.
Okay I'm middle aged and about to retire. I love to hunt big game and Colorado is a beautiful place. As a nonresident it has become almost impossible to draw a tag and way overpriced when I do. Time to call the realtor!!! I really liked that meadow and saw a pretty house site by the river. Oh wait, how many others have the same idea? Was that a migration route or wintering ground? Im sure it will be OK. Its a big country, right? Remember we all love to hunt and will do what it takes, isn't this how it started.....
Wish I had solutions. This is hunting, enjoy it will it lasts.
It's funny to hear people talk about "point creep", especially the idea that it could be relieved. I suppose various draw schemes could be made "better" or more "fair" depending on one's perspective. Whatever the system used, the fact remains is that tags will continue to be shorter in supply than demand. Anyone who has been in the game long enough has seen the trend - more demand for generally few tags every year.
I think anyone who complains about point creep because they didn't start playing the game early enough in their lives have no one to blame but themselves. I got into the game at the age of 37. Since then, I've drawn 2 mountain goat tags, 1 Bighorn sheep tag, 1 trophy antelope unit tag, and this year I finally drew my trophy elk unit tag, all here in Colorado. At 58, I'm still fit enough to hunt at a high level, and I have the financial resources to devote as much time to my hunts as I want. My only regret is not having the foresight to build points in other states.
As for the question to whether or not the high preference point trophy units are worth the wait, I can only provide my experiences. I've been hunting elk for over 40 years in Colorado. I saw more big bulls in the trophy unit I drew during my 3 day scouting trip last weekend than I've seen in my entire elk hunting career. I couldn't be more excited for a hunt. So, it's definitely been worth the wait for me. YMMV.
My advise is get into the game, and be patient. Before you know it you will be Willy Wonka with the Golden Ticket.
Hard to blame someone for getting in the point game too late when it was out of their control because they were born a decade after the system started.
GG, not everyone is old enough to have had the opportunity. Preference point systems for OIL species are a Ponzi Scheme for people who were old enough to get in on the ground level when it started and create a scenario where a certain age group of people get great odds at the expense of everyone else their entire lives until they draw or die, followed by everyone who comes after them having a short window of opportunity for the specie when they're very old.
There’s no system that suits everyone. When I got my sheep tag there were 17 tags drawn that year Two of the tags were drawn by guys that had never applied before one of them had never been hunting before. He thought the system was great.
It is obvious we need to recruit more hunters, and make the creep even more pronounced.
Unfortunately the "right to hunt laws" do not mean much. You still have to have seasons, and tags available.
How about the guys that weren’t old enough to start the points scheme when they started? Simple math tells me I would literally have zero chance at many permits requiring max or near max preference points, unless somehow I was still hunting at the ripe old age of 193.
True preference point are and always will be a ridiculous way to make more money for state wildlife departments. Bonus point systems or complete random, though also not perfect, are the only systems that are sustainable for current and future hunters, IMO.
the current preference system is very sustainable.
The last 20 -30 years proves it.
and every year a new class of applicants with money get in and in lots of states, species, and seasons, tags they have near zero chance of drawing in their lifetime, yet blindly or for whatever reason there they are, ever year buoying the system with their participation and money. What is not sustainable about that, more into the system more money to float the boat. it use to cost $7 to be in the point system for some species in Wyoming now it's $100 and $150, that hasn't slowed the applications much. Used to issue hundreds of moose tags in some region now its down to 10 and some specific units are none. even that hasnt been cause to slow the app numbers.
its still APPLY! APPLY! APPLY! but even that rally cry has been toned back by the hunting consultant firm that touted it for so many years as they recommended a few years ago already, that if you didn't have certain point level (above mid teens) for moose it was time to think about the fact that your just donating your money under the current system. low level point holders continue to send in apps and money and newbies start a new year class every year. not just moose WoW!
it maybe APPLY! APPLY! APPLY! the Game and Fish Depts are saying THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU! not without a tinge of disbelief and raised eyebrows and a little snicker.??
I like points. Can I say that twice in the same thread?
I've drawn on points in OR, AZ, UT, and WY, and can draw again on points in UT, WY, and AZ. I drew this year in OR on points. Are they the best units in each state? no, but nobody guaranteed me a top end tag. UT, WY, AZ, and OR all offer tags to a percentage in the random and those come down to your random number(s).
I like points too, Bob (although I like that not all states use PPs and some are pure lottery). I like points when I have a chance of drawing one day.
It is nice to be able to plan a hunt and to have a chance in the same system.
The problem comes with specific OIL hunts + PPs. The best examples are WY sheep/moose, OR elk (the best units), CO elk (the best units), and CA sheep, and CA bull elk.
Once it gets to the point where people who got in to the game in a specific year get odds of drawing their entire lives that no one after them will ever get to until they more than 80 years old, the system is broken and it becomes a Ponzi Scheme.
I have PPs all over and am hunting two tags this year off of tags I drew with PPs (WY PH and KS deer). But those two hunts are not OIL-type hunts or broken because of too few tags and too many applicants. PPs function perfectly well to a point until point creep is one point almost every year. Once it gets to the point where it costs 20, 30, etc points to draw and is still creeping almost every year, then it's broken for everyone getting in and IMO, it should be converted to a BP system.
PP systems work great for hunts that have very slow point creep.
Pp work for people in the system. They don’t work for kids or new hunters. Those that say “I like being able to know I’ll hunt x unit someday”. That’s based on PP systems of the past. Unless you’re well ahead of the masses you’re not getting any unit other than a low Pp unit. As Newberg podcast showed, to hunt a top tier or down the road, a middle tier unit, will take decades or lifetimes.
The California sheep draw is the quintessential example of a broken PP system and how it becomes a Ponzi Scheme for its first 50ish years of existence:
CA's system is such that 3/4 of tags go in the PP round and 1/4 are random, from any one unit. If there's 1 tag in the unit, it's random. If there's 7 tags in a unit, 1 is random and 6 are PP tags. If someone has max points, they have a shot at the PP tags AND the random tags.
Last year, there were 26 sheep tags in the draw, 19 PP tags and 7 random tags.
There were 1775 people with max points. There were 17,268 total applicants.
So of those 19 tags, 1775 had a shot at them with odds of about 1 in 93, overall, with individual units higher or lower.
All 17,268 people, minus the 19 who drew PP tags, had a shot at the remaining 7, or 1 in 2,466 odds.
Now, CA's sheep point system has been in place a little under 20 years, so all this time, those same people have had similar odds and will till they draw or die. The thing is, with the current amount of tags, if people lived 1000 years, it'd take 93 years for all of the max PP holders to all get a tag and go to the next group at max -1, ensuring that not only have they had those elevated odds for almost two decades, but that they will have them for the rest of their lives, until only the very old ever get a shot at the PP tags.
So if you happened to be alive and applying for sheep in CA when the system started nearly 20 years ago, you get better than 1 in 100 odds of drawing a sheep every year. If you weren't though, you get one in 2500 odds your entire life and hope that you got in when you were young enough to outlive everyone and still be able to hunt sheep when you're very old.
That, my friends, is a Ponzi Scheme. If you like the system, it's probably because you're one of the few who have/had max points and stand to benefit from it. The other 10s of thousands of us think it's horse crap.
You could have a random Sheep draw like OR does and you still won't live long enough to draw. Random with bonus points would give a weighted advantage but people will still complain.
It'd still be better odds.
Ike, even if you gave out all 26 in a random draw, would it matter? Take the odds to what, 1:664? Odds go from .04% to .15%.
"Ike, even if you gave out all 26 in a random draw, would it matter?"
Probably not, but maybe. I can tell you this, I'll take 1 in 664 over 1 in 2500 every day of the week. It's $8 for me to apply because I have a lifetime hunting license. 1 in 2500 is worth $8 to me. So you bet it "matters" to me to have better odds, even though I still probably won't draw.
Bad odds don't change the fact that giving a group of people 1 in 100 odds and others one in 2500 odds is total crap.
Again, the example was more about showing the ludicrousness of PP systems for high-demand hunts as the entire idea was for everyone to take a turn.
Actually the first sheep hunts started in 1985 with random draw, antelope started in the 60s that’s when I first applied. Points came along in 2000. Before points I knew two people that Had been drawn twice for elk in 7 years. With a random draw you could apply for 100+ years and never be drawn. I have kept 20 years of Ca big game drawing booklets. I did have max points. I studied ever year for trends in the drawings. I drew 2017 sheep 2018 antelope 2019 elk Let’s face it when it comes to sheep no matter what kind of system there is it’s going to be crazy odds. Back in the 90s I thought about applying for Arizona elk. I thought the heck with it. It’ll take forever to get drawn. I look back and now wonder how many times could I have been drawn? My advice for sheep is to apply for every state and look up every WSF chapter and buy sheep raffle tickets from them. Usually 1 ticket gives you 1-500 to 1-400 odds. Two tickets cuts the odds in half plus it’s a deductible donation. It’s strange that there is supposedly fewer hunters every year but the point creep goes up. My next move is I have several grand kids that are getting close to hunting age and will start applying for apprentice/junior hunts. That’ll probably be way more exciting.
Hard to believe hunters numbers are decreasing but maybe that is just out East since every Western state has seen a jump in apps every year for quite awhile. Idaho and Utah sold out faster this year than ever, not to mention MT hasn’t had leftovers for a few years either. Plus look how many are on the alternative list.
My personal experience, FWIW. I started western hunting in 2015 at the ripe old age of 33 with preference points in 4 species in Colorado and 3 in Wyoming. Bought a cheap landowner voucher the first year for elk in a 0 point unit and shot a decent bull. Next year did points again and picked up a 3rd choice deer and a leftover elk and once again shot a decent bull. Next year points again and picked up a return cow elk and a doe muzzleloader antelope and scored on both. Next year scored on a return doe antelope rifle tag and a 2nd choice bull elk and a decent returned buck tag and a type 6 Wyoming cow tag in a good area. Got a doe and a buck out of the deal. Now I'm set to start using some points and I've hunted a lot. Had some fun for sure. Never going to aim for top tier units. Saw some pretty good stuff by my standards on my return and 2and choice hunts.
anyone with more points than me may be a creep.
I was just talking about this very thing to my friend. He was doing the data extrapolation for NR for CO 201 with his 29 points. He’s out. After the assessment hes at 7-10yrs. The 201 dream is dead. Gonna grab a GMU 10 soon.
For you guys with points good. Future bowhunters ; point creep will keep young bowhunters out the game til their 40-50’s for sheep or trophy elk.
Kaa, anyone with three points is in the pool in CO for sheep. Weighted points are almost irrelevant. And a whole lot of the old guys with lots of elk points will be dying or aging out of hunting within the next 10-15 years.
With the descending age curve and the continuous decrease in hunters, plus the possibility of all-day for archery elk in CO, don't assume point creep will be linear in the future.
For you guys with points good. Future bowhunters ; point creep will keep young bowhunters out the game til their 40-50’s for sheep or trophy elk."
And how is that different than it's been for the majority of us old-timers? I just drew my trophy elk unit with 22 points, at the age of 58. And I couldn't be more excited. I'm just thankful that public land hunting of the caliber I will enjoy this year still exists. And I think that's almost entirely due to the limited draw and points system.
Colorado elk hunting would improve state-wide if they go to limited draw everywhere, IMO. And that would slow the point creep on the most coveted areas, because eliminating the OTC option would discourage the point banking that goes on now.
Can someone define point creep in simple terms for me or direct me to a video about it? I'm 57 and wondering if it would be worth my time to buy points to get a decent elk hunt and how long it might take. I'm not talking about a great unit, just one that would be better than an OTC unit.
12yards.....Preference Point creep results when there is more demand for hunting permits than there is supply. So even in a system offering applicants preference through seniority, it doesn't help much because there are too many people with seniority, compared to the number of licenses available. So if there are 500 people at the top of the seniority list who are vying for 7 tags per year, their senior point status doesn't matter. "Creep" means if it took 28 points this year to draw a license, it will take 29 points next year. You can't catch up.
As far as you getting an elk tag at your age by building preference, yes you sure can. You'll just have to settle for a lower demand hunt.