Contributors to this thread:
Mt Goat reissue tag
Can someone explain how a CO goat tag gets turned in over a month into the season, then offered to me with 2 weeks of 6-7 week season left?
I turned it down. No time to plan, short amount time to hunt and I am in Florida
Wish that would’ve been offered to me….
Agreed Tavis! Hopefully some fortunate hunter can make good use of the tag.
But how does it show up 5 weeks into the season??
Tag is less valuable for such a short time. Still could kill a goat which has value. Have to figure out if two weeks is enough.
You can ask for a refund for extreme circumstances up to 30 days after a season has started of you haven't hunted on the tag.
If that happened, add a few days for processing and maybe a few more for guys turning it down until your name came up.
I would probably also take it. With the big influx of applicants after the change in how we pay, odds are going the wrong direction in a big way.
I thought about if I was not already on vacation it might have been more tempting but by the time I could get home, organized, there would not be much time left.
On top of that I got a business and employee that already worked a 60 hour 6 day week and asking her to do that again for another week or two with no notice probably is a really bad idea.
I am about 15 years in to goats, it seems like that is above average of where people draw. If I was just getting started would also have made it more tempting. A big part of the fun of my sheep tag a couple years ago was the planning, scouting, and anticipation. I would miss all of that.
A reiussed tag like that… you don’t have to use your points correct? So you could hunt and draw goat again hopefully soon
It uses your points. If it hits the list and anyone can try to buy it, then it uses no points.
I agree with you John. The anticipation, planning, and scouting are all a big part of what makes a hunt like this so special.
i think John made a good choice. Timing was just bad.
Ok yea that’s understandable. I’ve heard of rogue goat tags (in units they don’t want goats being issued to guys waiting on list in adjacent unit.) And they didn’t use points. So I wasn’t sure
Did a quick statistical check, out of curiosity. For the pool of residents who held 8 or point weighted points, the average draw odds for that hunt over the last 5 years was 10.7%. And higher odds for those with more points. Given your circumstances, it was probably a wise choice to turn it down and keep your points. There's a good chance you'll draw it the regular way eventually. Leaving you the whole summer to plan and scout, and the whole season to hunt if needed.
You need to check your math again. 67percent of the tags last year went to people with lower point totals then you posted and it's only getting worse.
Orion but if you do some simple math. There were 30 people applied with 10 or more weighted points. They drew 4 tags. 13.3% of them drew a tag. Those with less than 10 points there were 348 eligible to draw they drew 12 tags. Only 3.4% of them drew. Those with 5 of less tags. Only 2.9% drew. So more points you have the higher your chances of getting a tag.
I just look I am at 13 years 10 weighted points.
The other wild card in that is 124 of the people that applied for this unit put in as second choice. So no way of knowing how many of those top 30 put in as not there first choice. But I know of a few people with high points that don't put a unit as first choice because its not a year they want to hunt them but still want to get a point. I guess some people just put down a second choice because they can and they don't understand there is no chance of getting a second choice tag.
Keep in mind that first choice res applications have doubled since 2015.
Front range unit I’d take the tag. Down there? It’s notorious for getting weathered out and it’s a big area. That late in the game and potentially not knowing the layout where the Billies hang out vs having drawn and been in there? Easy Choice, hard pass.
John just not sure you can tell someone with 3+8 they have a 10% of drawing a tag when nobody in that point pool even drew last year.
Orion has been doing Covid math again I see…
Hoot, that's a hoot! My favorite are the ones that ignore the law of probability. If I have a 50-50 chance I will draw in 2 tries.
John, you made the right choice IMHO. Unless you know the unit it would be a tough hunt to burn points on last minute. Hope you draw it down the road.
Hoot it's probably more accurate then the real math. Not sure how you can calculate those odds the true odds are the total number of applicants with 3+0 to max divided by the number of tags. Everyone from 3+0 up has the same odds for the lowest random number. The low point holders are flooding the apps and are steadily gaining a majority of the tags. I think it has been shown here numerous times that your odds are significantly decreasing in the higher point pools. Hoot are you still buying weighted points?
You guys are funny thinking your running odds and knowing you will draw. I guess that's why there are a few hundred clueless individuals who buy points every year thinking they are building them up to eventually draw.
I am not getting into try to make those that are terrible at math understand stats again. I've done it before and just not in the mood for it today. But I will say Orion your math teachers should be embarrassed.
In short however Orion just said "Everyone from 3+0 up has the same odds for the lowest random number"
Any one with a 3rd grade education should understand you got a better shot that your random number will be lower if you divide it by say '10' than by '1' or if you divide it by '15' instead of '3'....it is simple math.
It's ok my grammar teachers are probably embarrassed too.
Ya But at least your grammar makes sense enough to understand the math John haha.
"Any one with a 3rd grade education should understand you got a better shot that your random number will be lower if you divide it by say '10' than by '1' or if you divide it by '15' instead of '3'....it is simple math." Well said!
Hmmm...I wonder if Orion had 3 + 18 he would trade with someone with 3+0.
Orion, you are correct in that everyone with 3 points is in the same preference point pool (max 3) and this have the same initial odds of a low number. Everything after that is incorrect. Everyone’s odds are decreasing with the growing number of applicants, but that is minimized the higher your weighted points number is.
The absolute fact is that most people will likely never draw.
You said how could they have a 10% chance of drawing when no one in the point pool drew a tag? The inverse of that is that they had a 90% chance of not drawing and it seems to me that makes sense that in a higher point pool with far less number of applicants that fewer people in the pool will draw even though their odds are higher.
I know you know this, you’re just trying to advocate your position which is that there should be more weight or more preference. The problem is you don’t make a coherent argument when you try to insist that the math is other than what is quite apparent in the statistics. You’d be better suited to say “my position is there should be more weight or preference to higher point holders even though our odds are statistically a little higher anyway”
To answer your question, yes I will still buy weighted points for cow moose (killed my bull this year), I will continue to buy them for mountain goat, and after I kill my ram this year, and the 5 year waiting period is over, and I purchase my 3 preference points, I will buy them for sheep again too.
"Everyone’s odds are decreasing with the growing number of applicants, but that is minimized the higher your weighted points number is."
I think most folks don't realize this. They think their chances increase due to having another weighted point. That would be true if the same number of people were in the draw but for this tag there were under 200 3+ point holders in 2015, this year there was over 400.