Sitka Gear
bad time to buy land?
Whitetail Deer
Contributors to this thread:
Pyrannah 21-Nov-21
standswittaknife 21-Nov-21
Charlie Rehor 21-Nov-21
DanaC 21-Nov-21
redquebec 21-Nov-21
DanaC 21-Nov-21
Pat Lefemine 21-Nov-21
[email protected] 21-Nov-21
Bowaddict 21-Nov-21
Bandicooter 21-Nov-21
JL 21-Nov-21
APauls 21-Nov-21
cnelk 21-Nov-21
Thornton 21-Nov-21
goyt 22-Nov-21
Scott/IL 22-Nov-21
Grey Ghost 22-Nov-21
keepemsharp 22-Nov-21
goyt 22-Nov-21
Dale06 22-Nov-21
kokosing 22-Nov-21
Bake 22-Nov-21
DonVathome 22-Nov-21
Elkpacker1 22-Nov-21
Quinn @work 22-Nov-21
Missouribreaks 22-Nov-21
Ollie 22-Nov-21
Tim Floyd @Hm 22-Nov-21
deerhunter72 23-Nov-21
Bradford13 23-Nov-21
buckhammer 23-Nov-21
JL 23-Nov-21
Habitat 24-Nov-21
Saphead 25-Nov-21
EDUDA 25-Nov-21
goyt 25-Nov-21
DonVathome 27-Nov-21
XMan 29-Nov-21
luckyman26 29-Dec-22
Buckdeer 29-Dec-22
Bowhunter09 29-Dec-22
Pat Lefemine 29-Dec-22
Dale06 29-Dec-22
deerhunter72 29-Dec-22
Guardian hunter 30-Dec-22
Quinn @work 30-Dec-22
sticksender 30-Dec-22
DanaC 30-Dec-22
Franzen 30-Dec-22
Bow Crazy 30-Dec-22
Nomad 30-Dec-22
MQQSE 30-Dec-22
deerhunter72 30-Dec-22
Old School 30-Dec-22
t-roy 30-Dec-22
Glunker 30-Dec-22
JusPassin 30-Dec-22
Bake 30-Dec-22
deerhunter72 30-Dec-22
fuzzy 30-Dec-22
fuzzy 30-Dec-22
Missouribreaks 30-Dec-22
Dale06 30-Dec-22
JG420 30-Dec-22
fuzzy 30-Dec-22
KY EyeBow 30-Dec-22
SBH 30-Dec-22
MQQSE 30-Dec-22
Bowhunter09 30-Dec-22
Bowhunter09 30-Dec-22
Old School 30-Dec-22
NCK 31-Dec-22
Dale06 31-Dec-22
Franzen 31-Dec-22
Old School 31-Dec-22
APauls 31-Dec-22
APauls 01-Jan-23
Franzen 01-Jan-23
Old School 01-Jan-23
From: Pyrannah
21-Nov-21
so been thinking about land for awhile and not sure what i want to do...

but is this even a good time to buy ground right now? local real estate is insane..

also thinking about buying ground out of my home state

thanks

21-Nov-21
That’s a great question and we’re glad we bought it about a year and a half ago. Most indication is that property values are probably going to continue to rise, maybe not as sharp though, over the next 18 months. If I were a betting man and you can find the right piece, investment is good still But obviously not what it was even just six months ago. I’ve got a client who has stated that they’ve made a lot of money in real estate a little money real estate but never really lost. This guy is not in a speculative market but a long-term investment market. I agree..

21-Nov-21
If you’re plan allows a minimum of 10 year hold you should buy today.

From: DanaC
21-Nov-21
Supply and demand. Right now there is a lot of demand for 'investments' of everything from land to stocks and bonds to ammunition to... Will it subside? You need to consult a gaggle of investment strategy experts. My gut says, it won't get cheaper.

From: redquebec
21-Nov-21
I do know of two families that very sadly had to sell their prime hunting land just to keep their houses, cars and food on the table. There may be some deals that are good for the seller and buyer, unfortunately, because of how this time in our history has affected some of us.

From: DanaC
21-Nov-21
Yeah, the wealthy are looking for solid places to put their money, and the 'land poor' need cash.

From: Pat Lefemine
21-Nov-21
I bought my Ohio ground in March 2020 and just had it appraised for 2x what we paid for it.

It’s insane right now, but it may be the new normal.

21-Nov-21
Long term its almost always a decent time to buy land as far as value increasing. Not the best time to buy for getting the most for your money. You also have to value getting to use it now instead of 2 - 5 years from now if you wait in hopes of timing a dip.

From: Bowaddict
21-Nov-21
Been looking for few years, seems to have definitely gone up even in out of the way states/places this year!

From: Bandicooter
21-Nov-21
There are always deals to be had. Unfortunately, my 110 acre lease in Virginia got sold for less than $1600 an acre last year. I couldn't buy it because I had to buy my homeplace from my mom to keep her in decent memory care. Suggest looking for tracts owned by elderly people with no kids. Might find a deal.

From: JL
21-Nov-21
IMO a lot has to do with where you're looking too. I know there are some deals out there but in the high demand states near the west coast....it's ugly. I've been watching Montana for several years now. Property prices were ok about 1.5 to 2 years ago. Since folks are fleeing the chaos in Cali, OR and WA...many are heading to WY and MT and over-paying for property. One 9 acre place I went and looked at in MT back in July ended up in a buyers bidding war and went for $55K over what I would have offered/paid. I know a realtor bud out there and last month he said things are slowing down some. He had numerous buyers from Cali who were contracting new listings at the high asking prices (on contention) sight unseen. They would then go there and then decide if they want it. If they liked it....they would pay the high price. If not....they would cx out of the contract. The realtors weren't worried as they were taking back-up offers and then closing the sale. I'm hearing some buzz prices are artificially high (a bubble) out there. From my personal agenda and alot of other prospective buyers agenda's.....it would be a good thing if there is indeed a bubble and it pops soon circa 2006/07 and prices come back down to earth. We can only hope.....

From: APauls
21-Nov-21
What’s it like in the US? Vacant land not very volatile here in MB. More of a slow rise

From: cnelk
21-Nov-21
Property Tax Lien sales are also a real estate opportunity that is overlooked

From: Thornton
21-Nov-21
It's only going up, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. I spoke to an ag lender in Wichita yesterday, and he said foreign money is buying up a lot of marginal to poor dryland farmground in western Kansas and paying more than it's worth.

From: goyt
22-Nov-21
Vacant land as a whole seldom goes down. There are cases where land has to be sold so the sellers take whatever they can get in their time frame. Unlike houses there are not a lot of costs and up keep in owning vacant land. You can ignore it for years and it will be fine. Plus timber may be growing on it, it maybe be possible to lease farming and hunting rights. It seems that at slow times land sales just slow way down but prices do not go down. Land prices may stay about the same for years and then take a big jump but I do not ever recall them going down and I have owned vacant land since 1978. IMO the best time to buy land is when you find something you like in an area that you like and you have the recourses to buy it without putting yourself in financial peril. When I was a young my dad talked me out of buying some land because he knew that it was just not worth what they were asking based on his experience with 10 year old land prices. I had the money and wanted it but did not buy. I look like an idiot for not buying it now.

Two of us owned some land together since 1997 not too far from Pat's Ohio land. Probably around 2018 my partner, getting up in age was doing some estate planning and wanted to look at one of us buying the other out. We each got the land appraised but it is a difficult thing to deal with so nothing happened. Finally in 2020 he decided that he might die soon and we had to do something. We each got the land appraised again by the same people and the appraisals were 30% higher. I thought darn I should have bought him out 2 years ago and it was a bad time to buy after a big jump. However, it was fair pricing for the time so we signed the papers and I paid the higher price. It was the fair thing to do. I have not had it appraised again like Pat did but I am sure that it is worth a lot more today than I paid for it. We do mot knew what is going to happen.

From: Scott/IL
22-Nov-21
With the ever looming sale of our family farm, I have been looking for my own slice of heaven for a year or so. The demand is high, but the supply is low. If a good chunk hits the market, you better be there money in hand. I was scheduled to tour a farm not too long ago that had just been out on the market less than a day. I got a call right before my appointment saying the first person to call bought it for above asking price. I suspect, the market will continue to price itself further out of my budget.

From: Grey Ghost
22-Nov-21
We bought real-estate (a vacation condo) at the high point of the market right before the 2007/2008 crash. It took almost 10 years for it to return to the value that we paid for it. This market is feeling the same way to me. I'd be leery of buying right now, if you're concerned about retaining investment value.

Matt

From: keepemsharp
22-Nov-21
goyt: ignoring land for years does not work, you try that around here and you will get acres of worthless cedar trees that costs thousands to get rid of.

From: goyt
22-Nov-21
keepemsharp: good point. There are always advantages to paying attention. Good land management can help a lot. In Ohio the impact of neglect usually are not that severe.

From: Dale06
22-Nov-21
Is it a bad time to buy land, no. Will there be a better time, maybe, maybe not. If you can buy and not over stretch yourself financially, I’d not sit and wait for a time of better prices, that may or may not occur. I bought in 2009. I paid probably 10%+ over what the land was worth at that time. The land was in the right location and the right size. The land has appreciated considerably since then. Could I have taken that cash elsewhere and made more, probably. Am I glad I bought, absolutely and would do it again in a heart beat. EDIT. And if you are going worry over a drop in value for a few years, best not buy. Land vale has and in my opinion will trend up. That means it may go down in value for a period, but over time will trend up.

From: kokosing
22-Nov-21
I got a friend that is selling off some land . He told me that interest is low, crop prices are high and the feds are talking about raising capital gain to 40%. He think with the land prices being high is the time to sell.

From: Bake
22-Nov-21
My parents bought a farm in 1979 for $900 an acre. Then the early 80s happened, and the farm crisis and huge interest rates, and that farm was probably worth $400 an acre. Dad just stressed and stressed about it.

We had it appraised recently and it appraised for a considerable amount over the 1979 prices, like 5 times. I'm no financial guru, but I don't agree that you can look at these things solely from a financial standpoint either. If dad had taken that money through the years used to pay for the farm, and invested in something different, would it be higher, with a higher rate of return than the farm? I have no idea.

BUT, I now live on that farm, and have lived there for the past 8 years. I wasn't even BORN when they bought it. I'm building a house on that farm that I intend to die in. I will give this farm to my daughter. It's tillable and well located on blacktop. It's 8 miles from my parents. And 3 miles from my brother. It has other building sites if my daughter is interested or if one of my nephews is interested.

It's absolutely priceless to our family.

I was given some advice years ago by a farmer/judge: He said if you intend to buy land as an investment only, do NOT buy land within 40 miles of your house, because you'll never want to sell it. Fairly good advice really . . .

From: DonVathome
22-Nov-21
I have ought and sold over 200 homes and I am selling my rentals now. Land is the same. You make money by buying low and selling high. Land is high now. It is that simple.

Also interest rates have, by far, the biggest influence on land/home values. 1% higher interest rate and your land/house is worth 10% less. This is the single biggest, most important thing I have ever learned.

Interest rates can only go up. That said your payment also goes up..................

I was up to 25 single family homes (rentals) I am down to 6 now. Sold 6 this year and 8 last year.

Prices will go down in 2022, a lot by 2023. I think at least 20% down in 1-1/2 years.

From: Elkpacker1
22-Nov-21
always bought the land , minmum 20 acres. built then sold 10 yrs later. always made $. My current place I paid 750,000. Another 250,000 to fix up the house. appraised 7 months later 500,000 more. Always a good thing.

From: Quinn @work
22-Nov-21
Thornton's right. A section of bad grass pasture next to ground we hunt in Western Kansas just sold at an auction for about 20% more than it's worth and with no water. Bought online at the auction from a man in China who is buying up a ton of ground. Crop and pasture in western KS. My friend said the same man bought 20 sections this summer.

China wants our beef so it looks like they are going to feed and raise them themselves here in the US. Feedlots and packing houses are probably next on his list.

22-Nov-21
A good buy is a good buy, regardless. I am still buying.

From: Ollie
22-Nov-21
If you buy land you can hunt and recreate on it. Try doing that with a mutual fund!

22-Nov-21
Not sure we will see a crash in vacant rural land anytime soon. Totally different market than flipping condos, houses and or commercial real-estate. Yes there has been a sharp upward trend since the pandemic. It may level off but doubt it will sharply decline. I am in no means a expert, just my opinion and observation ... I have rural property in AL and WV and recently started purchasing in Northern Michigan all long term investments.

From: deerhunter72
23-Nov-21
Totally agree with Tim Floyd. Vacant ground prices are a different market than houses and especially resort/vacation properties. I've watched condo prices on the gulf coast for years and they are constantly up and down with wide swings. Buying ground in the right place at the right time is tough to do, but the time to buy is when it's for sale. Most ground doesn't change hands that often.

23-Nov-21
If you have the money buy now! They ain’t making anymore land, and I’ve never seen it depreciate, unless they log it and it looks like Mars.

From: buckhammer
23-Nov-21
These last 3 posts nailed it when it comes to vacant land and when is a good time to buy.

From: JL
23-Nov-21
The panic to buy was there in 2006/07.....until the bubble burst and folks got stuck with over-priced places and couldn't sell them without a significant loss. I almost got caught with an over-priced house in southern Maryland when I got orders to Wash DC. Got scared when financial folks were talking about this bubble-thingy. I ended up renting a place and thank God I went that route. Fast-forward to today and I've seen a financial pundit or two make some comparisons between 2006/07 and now. Maybe the newest bubble will pop....maybe not.

From: Habitat
24-Nov-21
Check out The land podcast,it is very good about everyday people buying land

From: Saphead
25-Nov-21
IF you buy now and have to wait 10 years for the value of it to go down then back up as Grey Ghost said. What have you lost? What have you gained? 10 years of use and enjoyment. You only have so many years . Who cares if it takes 10 years? It ALWAYS goes up , 10 years is a blip. I have been buying land since 1990. I am in contract to buy more right now. If it goes down for awhile you get to use it. If it goes up more you get to use it. If you don't care about using it then your treating it like a stock and who knows short term ? Not me. Of course always try to buy the best value in the area. Its funny how I always think I paid too much for about a year.

From: EDUDA
25-Nov-21
I’m one year out from purchasing 50 acres behind the house. It’s only good for deer and ducks. Its one of those situations that’s it’s to good to pass up. Premier deer hunting (southern MI) and it’s out my back door.

From: goyt
25-Nov-21
Lots of good and varying input. Pyrannah has not indicated what his objectives are. If the goal is to buy hunting land for the long haul that can be improved for hunting with no short-term desire to sell it for a profit the market only impacts how easy or hard it is to find what you are looking for. Once you own it the value is not that important until you want to sell. If the value goes way up and taxes with it, is that a good thing? I had a piece of property change hands adjacent to mine that I would have purchased if I knew about it. I spoke with the new owner and he told me that he heard that they were looking to sell so he contacted them and bought before they put it on the market. He had been running around looking for property for months and everything was selling before he could respond. That makes this a bad time to buy if nothing is available. In short if you find it and it is what you are looking for, I would recommend buying it. Trying to time markets is so difficult.

From: DonVathome
27-Nov-21
Investmenting goals are buy low and sell high. It's high now. It really is that simple. Land values do NOT always go up. Wait 1-2 years it will be at least 20% cheaper. If you ignore the investment angle then the question is pointless. The answer is buy. The only reason for asking the question is as an investment.

From: XMan
29-Nov-21
The competition for land right now is fierce. Will it go down, maybe... but assuming these rates stay close to where they are today, I highly doubt it. There is considerable wealth and people spending tons of $$ on land even in this crazy economy. I just bought a piece of ground where it was listing for $4,400 an acre for $3,100. Have to do your research, have good connections to the area where you want to buy so your on top of folks selling before it hits a big high priced realtor, be patient and pounce when the oppty is right. I wouldn't wait, start looking now.

From: luckyman26
29-Dec-22
Probably hard to find a good moment to buy, you can wait many years and miss the chance to buy something in time. If you don't look at the issue in the context of our country, but buying abroad, you always have a chance. E.g. my brother got interested in Guide to Portuguese mortgage process and asked me to help him. He has health problems, our northern climate isn`t suitable, so it`d be better for him to settle down somewhere in the south, and not so long ago he got such an opportunity. I`d really like him to settle down the place he wants. But I'm not sure I could easily help if he was buying real estate here in Alabama.

From: Buckdeer
29-Dec-22
Everyone needs to support laws restriction foreign purchase of US land.I believe there are some laws in the works now.The best time to buy land was years a go and the next best time is today. Same as planting a tree.You will pay more now than just 6 months ago due to interest.Check out the podcast American land man and The Land Podcast also several utube shows with Bill Winke and a land company talks about things to do and watch.

From: Bowhunter09
29-Dec-22
Bought some recreational land this fall for $4000 per acre. Seems high, but land 1 mile away sold for $5000 at auction last year. Six guys looking at it the first day it was listed. I offered the asking price and signed papers the day after the listing. If you are buying the land to use, hunt and enjoy, buy it now. Next year or in 10 years, you won’t regret it.

From: Pat Lefemine
29-Dec-22
What state did you buy in Carl?

From: Dale06
29-Dec-22
Bought land in Ks in 2009. The property had just sold and I missed getting a chance to bid on it. I went to the new buyer, asked him what he would sell it for and I bought it. I paid a premium for sure but it’s provided lots of revenue and is worth a lot more now. I had no debt at all and would not buy land if I had any significant debt. I’m super glad I bought it. I think land in almost all cases is a decent investment if you can hold it for 10+ years.

From: deerhunter72
29-Dec-22
3 years ago farm ground in my neighborhood was selling for $4,500-5,000/acre. Last year and this year it’s going for $7,000-8,000/acre.

30-Dec-22
Follow economic policy. Don't follow the price of the commodity. Are banks lending on raw land? If they pull back it will correct the market. Just 1 example.

From: Quinn @work
30-Dec-22
"3 years ago farm ground in my neighborhood was selling for $4,500-5,000/acre. Last year and this year it’s going for $7,000-8,000/acre."

How can anyone produce enough of any crop to break even on 7K-8K an acre? The price paid per bushel on anything grown does not even come close, let alone $5/gal diesel this year to plant, spray, fertilize and harvest?

Where does it end?

From: sticksender
30-Dec-22
An old thread, but what the hey ;-)

Land doesn't depreciate like equipment. Therefore the expense of owning land is strictly the interest and loan fees paid to purchase it, plus property taxes. As long as the long-term escalation in market value of the land at least keeps up with inflation. Time has proven that to be the case over the long haul. And.....the interest and loan fees can be avoided if paying cash, which many of the croppers can. No doubt this is why they can pay 7-8k an acre (or much more) for good tillable land. The decision point therefore just boils down to whether competing investments would be a better choice (stocks, bonds, NFT's, art, gold, etc, etc). Or if you prefer to stick with what you know.....which is exactly what most farmers will choose, and so they keep buying more land.

Recreational land is a whole different deal. Most people are buying it simply because they want it. If it so happens that it eventually turns into a good investment, that's a bonus, but not the primary reason for buying. Which is why recreational land values often seem irrational to the investment-minded.

From: DanaC
30-Dec-22
RE. sticksender - "Recreational land is a whole different deal. Most people are buying it simply because they want it. If it so happens that it eventually turns into a good investment, that's a bonus, but not the primary reason for buying. Which is why recreational land values often seem irrational to the investment-minded. "

Let's say you invest $100,000 in a parcel of land, hunt on it for ten years and then sell it for $80,000. Your 'loss' was $20,000 BUT you got to use the land for ten years. If you had leased the land instead, what would it have cost you? Or if you had invested the money, ended up with $150,000, and treated yourself to a $5000 hunt every year, you'd 'break even.'

I'm not saying don't buy it. Plenty of 'value' in working, improving and hunting your own property. Just be aware of the 'opportunity cost' of it versus other options.

From: Franzen
30-Dec-22
$7k-$8k would be a no-brainer for some ground not far from here. A farmer could easily make out on that with recent grain prices. Right in my area, not so much, but you don't have to go far. A 40 within 30 miles went for over $20k/acre recently; an ag purchase only.

From: Bow Crazy
30-Dec-22
I am a Realtor with United Country Midwest Lifestyle Properties & UC Hunting Properties, in Wisconsin. Sticksender is correct when he wrote, "Recreational land is a whole different deal. Most people are buying it simply because they want it. If it so happens that it eventually turns into a good investment, that's a bonus, but not the primary reason for buying. Which is why recreational land values often seem irrational to the investment-minded." The rec land buyer of today wants land to hunt/hike/experience and learn about nature, build a cabin/home on where they can work remotely, just want a place out of the city, buying land next to them because it may never be available again, and more. They have money, that's usually not an issue, they simply want a place to call their own, and use to enhance their lives.

This past spring I sold a 40 to a couple out of Chicago sight unseen. Looked at all my photo/videos from the ground and from the air, offered over the asking price the second day it was on the market. The market has slowed down a little some, but not much. BC

From: Nomad
30-Dec-22
Quinn has it right.......it's China. Trump had it right.......it's China! People better pay attention.

From: MQQSE
30-Dec-22

MQQSE's embedded Photo
MQQSE's embedded Photo
I have always bought land that I wanted the first day I had the opportunity to. That program has never done me wrong. We own farms in IA and MO and presently over 2500 acres in total. Looking back I don’t see 1 acre in that total I wish I hadn’t bought.

I remember one lady at one of the closings mentioning how much I overpaid. I always smile when I think back about that comment.

Ag land and vacant recreational land should be considered differently than land with improvements on them. Homes, apartments, swimming pools, barns, etc all muddy the waters when determining what to buy.

From: deerhunter72
30-Dec-22
The old adage of "poor old farmer" doesn't hold true these days. Most farmers are quite wealthy, especially if they inherited family ground. Plus, they get tons of subsidies from the government. I think like Quinn, how can they ever recoup the cost just by farming? I don't know if that really enters into the equation to an extent. Ground is such a limited commodity, if a tillable piece can be bought, you can guarantee that someone will pay the price. $7-8k in my county is very high, but if you drive 2 hours north where the soil is even better and the per acre yields are higher, then $15-20K is more the going rate.

From: Old School
30-Dec-22
Depends on your perspective. The stock market will produce better returns, but you can’t hunt/fish on the stock market. An argument could be made for leaving your money in investments and leasing annually with your stock market returns.

$250,000invested and earning a reasonable 8% equals $20,000 every year - what could you lease or what dream hunt could you do for $20,000? And that $250,000 you’d invest wouldn't really buy very many acres either - given land prices, perhaps 50-60 acres. So own 50-60 acres or have $20,000 every year to do what you want with….

To me it’s not so cut and dried and simple as “just buy land”.

From: t-roy
30-Dec-22
I think sticksender nailed it. The only thing I might add to the farmer’s reasoning besides just wanting the land, is NOT wanting the neighboring farmer to own it. There was 74 acres of farmland in NW Iowa, that sold in November for a record high per acre price. Two neighboring farmers got into a bidding war and when the dust settled, the winning bidder dropped 30K/acre. Lots of big farmers flush with cash out there, looking for a tax write off, and doing it by purchasing land, instead of new equipment.

Recreational is a little different, but in some instances, the same “I want it cuz I want it” comes into play, irregardless of what it costs me (to a point). They have the cash.

From: Glunker
30-Dec-22
Not sure how you write off a land purchase. Income property will go down in price if the income does. Recreational land is in demand but it is discretionary in that in a falling market you will sell it before you would sell your house and income paying investments. One caveat is that if the rec property throws off income it is a better investment. Right now it is anyone guess. We could have raging inflation that doubles the price of land while reducing the dollars value. We could go through a period like in late 80s where land dropped and demand diminished. If you can hold it for 10+ years you should have increased value but maybe putting that money into an income stream allows to to buy fabulous hunts. Stock mkt and land both seem high right now. The right piece of land is hard to turn down if you do not have to borrow money to fund it.

From: JusPassin
30-Dec-22
Most nations have enough sense to not allow foreigners to own their land. Unfortunately the US is too greedy to follow that policy.

From: Bake
30-Dec-22
My father-in-law is a big stock market guy. Personally I don't get it. He gets to look at his investment on a computer screen and see it go up or down.

My parents are land people. Maybe they haven't gotten the returns on their land that the stock market has given my father in law (although it is productive land), but their children are building houses on that land. Their grandchildren play and enjoy the land. There are so many benefits to owning land.

I understand that I grew up in the farmer culture, so I'm biased and brainwashed to an extent, but land is where it's at. . .

I often think of Delmar in "O Brother where art thou". . . . "You ain't no kinda man unless you own land." :)

From: deerhunter72
30-Dec-22
I have a good friend who is pretty wealthy. He owns about 600 acres and also has several million in the stock market. He recently told me that over time, he thinks the stock market makes you more money. But he obviously has the best of both worlds.

From: fuzzy
30-Dec-22
I've seen land consistently gain "real value" outpacing inflation and market fluctuations, for the past 50 years (the 10 years before that I wasn't aware of land prices.) The 80 acre farm my parents bought in 1961 for $12,500 sold in 2013 for just under a quarter million. Adjusting for inflation that's still a huge gain.

From: fuzzy
30-Dec-22
In 1999 I looked at a 5 acre mountain [tract]which I thought was priced exorbitantly at 5K. Today I'd be thrilled to be able to get it for 30K.

30-Dec-22
It is never a bad time to buy land, that is if you purchase it correctly.

From: Dale06
30-Dec-22
Deerhunter72, that is correct, the best of both worlds.

From: JG420
30-Dec-22
Fuzzy right now in PA that 80 acre farm with a house would be close to 1 million. I bought 40 acres 20 years ago in pa for 57 grand, last year I got offered 250000. Just up the road 2 friends and myself bought 121 acres 12 years ago for 230000, last year we got offered 850000.

From: fuzzy
30-Dec-22
JG 420 though the house did convey in the sale it was only ssessed as about $25k of the value. When they bought the place there an old farmhouse there but it wasn't really livable.

From: KY EyeBow
30-Dec-22
Old School is not wrong!

From: SBH
30-Dec-22
He ain't wrong but his math only works if you're getting 8%......this year that $250k investment not only didn't generate $20k of income.....it most likely lost $20k and probably more.

From: MQQSE
30-Dec-22
11 years ago I bought an 80 for $1400/ac. This week I paid $5000/ac for the 100 next to it. I’m confident that in 11 years from now the same land will cost over $10,000 an acre if not more. Back in 2011 I wondered if I was getting ripped off. Hindsight sure is 2020, but foresight is where you can make money. Too many people only look backwards and don’t apply what it is telling them into their future decisions.

From: Bowhunter09
30-Dec-22
Pat southeast Illinois

From: Bowhunter09
30-Dec-22
Agriculture land in my county in southeast Illinois is selling for 12,00 per acre or more. I am not in the black dirt area of the north half. There its up to 20,000

From: Old School
30-Dec-22
SBH - the market avg being 8%. If you can’t average 8% something is very wrong. Sure if you cherry pick years some years you may lose 30%, but the years leading up it that I made 40%+ each yr. in 2 consecutive years.

I was being conservative on figuring 8%.

From: NCK
31-Dec-22
Diversify, Diversify, Diversify.............Rec Land, Rental Property, Stocks, Bonds...........etc. Also, when buying Rec land look for some that has tillable or CRP on it for some ROI. One piece I have has been paying 4% annually for the past 10 years on original purchase price. So at this point it has paid 40% of the original cost of the land.

From: Dale06
31-Dec-22
NCK made good points re diversification. Don’t have all your investment in recreation land, or stocks, or bonds, etc.

From: Franzen
31-Dec-22
Old School, will you be my investment advisor? 40%? Is that even real? If you lose 30% one year, but gain 30% the following year, you are still a net negative. On the same token, if you gain 30% this year, but lose 30% next, you are again a net negative. I suppose it depends on how you track the gains and losses; I'm simply looking at it from the start value of each year. Having said that, I'd guess you would likely make more in the market if you truly know what you are doing. Regardless, I agree with Bake in that there is so much more to owning property than simply what "return" you are going to get. For example, had my parents not bought land at a high interest rate in the 70's (maybe it was very early 80s, can't remember), odds are not high that I would have ever became a bowhunter.

From: Old School
31-Dec-22
Franzen - no doubt about more to owning land than the “return”. If you’ll read my initial post I say that. My point is this - and I thought it was clear. It doesn’t take a financial wizard to make 8% AVERAGE over the long haul. And yes, back in the Trump years I made 40% in back to back years. Long term over my personal investing life I’ve averaged better than 8%. If you’re not averaging 8% with your current advisor you need to find another advisor unless you are at the point in life where you are strictly an income investor and not growth.

My initial post simply says there are more choices than just “go buy land”. Invest and take your returns and lease land or go on a “dream” hunt - or buy 50-60 acres and have a spot of your own to do with as you please - Didn’t say which is right or wrong - that depends on the individual and what they really want to do. That’s it - nothing more or nothing less.

From: APauls
31-Dec-22
Old School is not wrong. But using his strategy at the end of 10 years you would have burnt a pile of money and had some fun experiences and there is nothing wrong with that.

Supposing you buy land you now own land and have a pile of great experiences and at the end of 10 years (assuming 5% compounding) your $250,000 asset has turned into a $407,000 asset So if you liquidate after 10 years to be the same as the other strategy not only did you have the land to enjoy but now you also have an ADDITIONAL $157,000 to “play” with.

So in this comparison you’re comparing spending money every year vs having land and more spending money later. Different choices will be right for different people.

From: APauls
01-Jan-23
Old School is not wrong. But using his strategy at the end of 10 years you would have burnt a pile of money and had some fun experiences and there is nothing wrong with that.

Supposing you buy land you now own land and have a pile of great experiences and at the end of 10 years (assuming 5% compounding) your $250,000 asset has turned into a $407,000 asset So if you liquidate after 10 years to be the same as the other strategy not only did you have the land to enjoy but now you also have an ADDITIONAL $157,000 to “play” with.

So in this comparison you’re comparing spending money every year vs having land and more spending money later. Different choices will be right for different people.

From: Franzen
01-Jan-23
Old School, the majority of my post was not directed at you or anyone else, it was just general perspective. I can't disagree with you really, even though I'll never understand the concept of earning that money to use on what I would consider "throw-away" spending. I think most are in agreement that it is a "different strokes" kind of thing when it comes to land purchase.

I've said it in another thread and it's been said here; now may not be the best time to buy land, but there is likely not a bad time if the right circumstances are there and it's what you want to do.

From: Old School
01-Jan-23
I agree with that Franzen.

Depends on what people want out of life - different for everyone.

Some want to own their own land - great, go buy land. Others could: invest that money and

1. Lease double the acres they could buy and also go

2. DIY Alaska moose hunting

3. DIY elk hunting

4. Guided black bear hunt

And do all that every year for roughly the same amount.

Neither is right or wrong - just depends on what you want to do.

  • Sitka Gear