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Any word on if app numbers increased or decreased?
Does anyone really think they're going to decrease?
You think they have # of apps after 4 days? I mean they’ve pushed notification of tags until June. I’m sure the #’s are high.
They definitely have the # of apps after 4 days.
I'd be curious too.
Good chance of apps increasing. At least you might think that from looking at the trend in NR points in recent years.
I think with all the talk about possible changes to the future percentages of NR tag allocations, that more people are trying to dump their points.
Pop-r, Having the # of apps and posting them are two completely different things.
They have the number now when will it be published I don't know. Maybe they'll wait till after the modify/withdrawal date as that will effect the final number.
Elk apps have never decreased in WY. ever
And less than half of the people with points even apply. They're invisible to the odds reports.
We’re in with 3 for a general tag in the Special draw. Hopefully it’s still enough and the people dumping points don’t push us out of the mix with creep.
Yes sir, having them & posting them is two different things. I just know they have them.
To think I used to draw Wyo Gen tag as a 2nd choice in the special not too long ago!
Knowing how many point holders there are is irrelevant. I don’t know what half of those guys are waiting for but it’s not a general license I know that. When I have a point I’m like a kid in a candy store with a dollar in his hand.
Going into the special with a 3.4 average. As usual I’ll be curious to see what it takes in the regular and special to have 100% odds. Will 3 make the cut in special? We’ll find out…. in half a year! Ugh
The amount of folks in the 1, 2, and 3 pools has more than doubled in just four years. Roughly 46,000 going into ‘18 to over 94,000 this year. I think point creep “awareness” is higher than ever with all the hand holding sites and YouTubers telling everyone they’ll never draw a primo tag and it’ll be decades before they chase down the mediocre units. I’ll be very surprised if a Regular general isn’t pushing double digits by the end of the decade.
I put in for a general tag with 4 points in the general pool. I assumed that was a guarantee. Shouldn't I draw with 4?
ryanrc, you should draw with 4 but like WapitiBob said there are way more people with points that don’t factor in every year.
I think 4 points will be about 50% odds in the general regular draw this year. I applied for the general with 6 points. With all the talk of reducing quotas and a price hike I believe point creep will be pretty high this year.
Hopefully & I do figure a few of them are dead bob! No disrespect intended.
I didn’t apply this year, so expect some really nice thank you gifts from some of you guys.
—jim
4 PPs for a glorified OTC tag. Damn
Better then any OTC tag in Colorado.
I burned my 5 this year. Going to be an awesome hunt, should be twice as many grizz this year!
My understanding of the move to 90/10 for LE tags would result in more General tags for non-residents to get the total number up to 7250.
We have 3.3333333 (6, 3 and 1) points and applied in the general. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
Blood- should have kicked out the “1”, would have been going in with 5.
Lol. The 1 is someone I’m trying to help draw a tag with my 6 points. And 6+3 is 9. Dived by 2 = 4.5. Yes. Better chance, but I’ve got a really special trip if we draw. Maybe 2022 will be special.
Blood- should have kicked out the “1”, would have been going in with 5.
“Applied in the general” That’s not saying much. The question is Regular General or Special General?
50% odds with 4 points? The sky is falling but not quite that fast!
Man my math skills suck, good luck hope you draw. I’m in with 10 but have no chance of drawing my unit unless I get the random.
Mule Power if I'm reading it right in the 2020 general regular draw 3 points was a 58% chance 2021 3.5 was 41%. If the trend continues 4 points will probably be lower then 50% for 2022.
I jumped in GEN with 7 points... tired of waiting for years for a good unit. I'm going elk hunting.
"Mule Power if I'm reading it right in the 2020 general regular draw 3 points was a 58% chance 2021 3.5 was 41%. If the trend continues 4 points will probably be lower then 50% for 2022."
You're not reading that right. 3 pts was 100% in 2020 and 42% in 2021. Reg Gen.
I chuckle when folks look at last years stats and state “I should be a lock w/x points “. Understand stats are only a historical reference point. For 2022, that reference point will move. And not for the better. How far will it move? More than a point? Full point? Fraction of a point?
We will find out when 2022 stats are published.
I'm in for unit 7 with zero points, using the power of prayer this year, nothing works better.
Jethro you are right was reading the draw report wrong. So 4 should be a lock emphasis on should.
In the words of Eric Church… “creepin”.
“I think with all the talk about possible changes to the future percentages of NR tag allocations, that more people are trying to dump their points.”
Adam, Yup I’m definitely in this category. A buddy split his 8 points with his son in Denver this year for gen elk. And I’ll split my 8 with him next year and get off the point chasing hamster wheel. Will ride general elk bandwagon going forward from there to minimize getting burned by yet another point devaluing system “change”. Not interested in wasting 5 years chasing 38-9 only to have rug pulled out yet again. What a racket.
You’re a man of many words Hunt…
Good luck on your plan Zim. Splitting 8 in half might be a long shot in the regular pool next year. And that “general elk bandwagon” is getting pretty loaded. Could wind up in the same boat you are now with 38-9.