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5% odds can it be?

I have max points as a NR in MT for mnt goat. Hunters Trailhead shows a few units with odds over 5% for me? Is this true? This year I have been working hard at trying to draw tags and lower my overall application costs. It all started with WY and the $877 in nonrefundable money I spend every year. I then looked further and saw my AZ odds about the same as 5 years ago - no closer to most units I watch in the last 5 years. Utah odds so bad etc.

Any way after all the doom and gloom I looked at my mnt goat odds and was pleasantly surprise to see MT looking possible.

So I am happy to share good news, and wanted to make sure that the odds are correct. This year I will have 6% odds at 3 units. Does that sound right?

So you’re saying there’s a chance! Congrats that’s better than odds for over half of New Mexico’s elk units.

1 in 16 is considered 'good' odds? I'll give you western guys credit, you make some ballsy bets.

Maybe. With the squaring of points, maybe. Depends on how many other people put in for your choice, how many points they have, and if another NR gets drawn before you.

The top % successful is ~4%. I wish they would include bonus points in that figure, I think there are publications of that info somewhere in that labyrinth FWP calls a website. I do know for certain that if you don't put in your odds are zero. Good luck!

Very true smoked. Odds aren’t very good sitting on the sideline watching

Hahaha yes that is GOOD odds. My NH moose draw odds, with max points (20 years applying), is something like 300:1

Funny LINK, best line in dumb dumb and dumber, which is what I am for spending all this $$$$ on long odds:)

5% odds for NR sounds way too high. Actually though, draw odds can't be calculated using the data provided by MTFWP, because they don't publish the point status of individual applicants as they applied per each hunt code. Unless HT has now somehow gotten them to provide that information? Making things even tougher, Montana doesn't allocate separate tags to NR's. So everyone, both NR's and Res, are in one draw pool. NR can draw up to a 10% ceiling per region, but NR are are not guaranteed any licenses. And NR are further limited to (up to) 1 license (per eligible hunt code) in most cases or (up to) 10% of a hunt code, rounded down, in other cases. So at best, you could roughly calculate the average odds per hunt code. And in the last draw cycle, the average draw odds appear to be about 0.1% to 0.5% for NR, with a couple or three low-demand hunts potentially higher than that. In the grand scheme, there were a total of 3335 NR applicants and they drew 13 licenses. And they were competing with 17878 resident applicants for the same licenses.

SS hence my post, I do know they do something a little different then just straight bonus points. In my spreadsheet I show I have 300 points - which I am sure I got from somewhere. Points started 20 years ago I am guessing they say 15 points per year?

That would explain the decent odds for max points guys. The same hunt that HT shows my odds at 6% (20 years points) shows a NR app with 0 points at a 0.1% chance.

That math agrees with my guess. My point is having max points might explain HT odds. I have very carefully examined point systems like NV and once you get a lot of points your odds go up dramatically vs. few points.

I always remembered my odds being around 2% about 5 years ago.

So you have max points in MT and that only gives you a 6% chance of drawing the tag? And you are happy about that? Thats glass 1/2 full for sure but it sure seems like a guy would be in a better position after investing that many years in a state.

I have 19 points for elk in NV [I missed a couple years of apps] and it gives me a 2% better chance of drawing an elk tag in one of the top units. 20 years of applying...and a couple grand in lic fees....and it increases my odds 2%?

I feel sad for guys that are just getting into these point scheme states......its a racket.

.

This thread validate my reasons for dropping out of 90% of these draws. Many of them have become ridiculous.

Sucks having over 20 years invested in many of these states and still single digit odds for most of the hunts I am applying for…

Agreed. I have overhauled my strategy and plant to get out. WY costs me over $870 a year in nonrefundable fees - this is just app & point fees. No tags no licenses.

After lots of research into what my odds are now vs. 5 or 10 years ago I was depressed. It was rough when states switched to CC apps and 2x as many NR applied. That hurt. Slowly cutting tags, increasing fees has really taken it's toll.

I have drawn some AMAZING tags over the years and had so many amazing experiences. I am very lucky. That said current odds and expenses, even though I can afford it, are not sitting right with me.

If I hear one more person say "it is in line with other states" I am going to loose it. When you teach your kids about drugs do you tell them if everyone else is then it must be ok?

The NR draw odds, and expenses are not, by any logical explanation, acceptable. The fact that many have been drinking the koolaid for so long they have been lulled into thinking it is the norm is pathetic.

This year was a real eye opener for me and, based on principal - not financial reasons, I am weaning my apps and cashing in points asap.

The guys commenting that after all this time maybe I should not be happy with those odds have a very good point. I might also need to stop drinking the koolaid!

5% is well 5% for any other NR applying for that same tag. You may have 300 squared points but all it takes is one. And remember that 5% is from last year and could be completely different this year. You can get the break down of applications submitted for each bonus point level as well to give you an idea of how many others your are competing with.

Draws odds suck and get worse every year. Stating the obvious a 5% chance of drawing means a 95% chance of not drawing. I’ve drawn one premium non-resident tag and that was a moose tag in MT’s unit 101 with 4 points. Unit 101 was the hardest unit in the state to draw at the time with NR odds at less than 1%. I only applied because I didn’t have much that year so I applied for the unit with the lowest odds.

As a max point holding resident of NV my odds to draw a CA BHS tag are about 4% if I apply for the 5 “easiest” units to draw while chances of drawing a Rocky MT BHS are about 1/10th of 1%. I need one of the two to complete the sheep slam so I hope I draw while I’m still physically able to hunt. That said I did draw a Desert Sheep tag in the state’s second most difficult unit to draw with 18 points after years of applying for the “easiest” units to draw. When I think about this DBHS tag and the MT moose tag, maybe the key is to apply for the lowest odds units……

In AZ, with 18 points, my chance of drawing a top 3 elk unit are near zero and I think at 22 points the odds are closer to 50%. When I started applying it would’ve taken 12 points to guarantee a Unit 9 tag. Yeah point creep sucks and so does basic supply and demand.

I reserved a new 2021 Ford Bronco in early August of 2020 and I’m still waiting for it to be built. The difference being I know it’ll eventually get built, maybe even next month or by April. As it stands I’m at 558 days of waiting and counting. Should’ve bought a Jeep but I don’t fit in them and don’t like them.

" I know it’ll eventually get built, maybe even next month or by April"

Sorry, nope. Maybe April 2023.

Things I hope happen this year but probably won’t:

I draw a NV sheep tag.

I draw a non-resident tag in AZ, UT, NM or MT

I get a new Bronco before May (currently scheduled for a March 14 build but was originally scheduled to be built in mid-February, so who really knows….) I thought manufacturing shortages would stop haunting me after I retired from 28 years in the segment but I was wrong!!!

Yeah, I used to plunk down $25k-$30k a year on draws….I changed everything in about 2012, drew out in AZ elk in 2013 and now dont play that game.

Its a simple math exercise calc’ing your draw odds thats worth the effort. So you guys can thank me for improving your odds from 1-4,000 to 1-3,999, grin

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In 11 years I drew two Wyo bull (any) elk tags with odds under 2%. After the last one I wondered what I was doing buying points!

Beendare you figured it out quicker then me. Still shocked at how bad it is. But I will soon draw WY sheep & moose. About a 10% chance per year at mnt goat. I can draw a great utah elk tag anytime. I am cutting states. Done with AK, NV, VT. I will cut Utah in 3 years or less. Drawing WY sheep & Moose alone will save me $400 a year.

I’m in the same boat Don. I started cashing Oregon points out this year and next year will be out. Colorado is next on my chopping block. Then I’ll reevaluate the other states after that.

WY & NM have been very good to me. NM odds are terrible now, even guided so that will never be the same. There is still a lot of opportunity in WY but you pay for it. If you are willing to hunt females the opportunity is amazing. That said the cow elk refuge hunts are going away and cow bison tags are way down. Cow bison tags will likely ever bounce back.

akbow I drew both sheep and mnt goat (archery) in CO. Between that (low points) and 5 or so years ago starting cc apps and no upfront tag fees odds are so bad I might drop CO. I never ever thought I would say that. I tried hard to draw before all the new apps hunt 3 points but did not. I apply for nanny tags in every state that offers them hoping for better odds.

Goat odds for CO residents has absolutely gone to the gutter the last 5 years. Many of the units are sub 3% for residents, way worse for NR.

Toprut says they calculate draw odds (by running 1000's of simulations) using squared points and accounting for the NR caps. Plugging in max points for goats, 2021 data, I'm seeing 4 hunts with odds ranging from 6.7-9.7%, and another 3 in the 3-4% range. So not too bad, compared to sheep anyway.

The adventure is practically free guys, you just probably shouldn't stick 'em with a shaft but take them back in the magic box that steals their soul. In the case of goats very often the actual shot is a bit anti-climatic anyway. I will admit I have much higher motivation to suffer when I can shoot one. Just a character flaw I'm working on, with not much progress.

Squirrel what date was that pic taken? His hair looks amazing!

Right after his last appointment at the salon ;-)

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