If there were 181 people applying for 182 tags that does not mean that after drawing 180 names even though the odds are 1/2 for the remaining tag that odds were not 50% from the beginning.
When you claim that after the first 2 tags are drawn your odds are really 1/180, that is correct, but you also had odds of being one of the first 2 drawn. Using your logic - you could say in your other unit where it is 1/119 that after the first person draws you now have a 0/118 probability, so no use applying…..
It’s simple math - do the division problem and those are your odds.
You have a snowball in hells chance of drawing.
Seriously, dont beat yourself up. Its a longshot any way you slice it.
.
Actually it is a little better. First tag drawn had 1/182 (.0054945), second had 1/181 (.0055248) and 3rd had 1/180 (.0055555) add them together to get .0165748
3/182 = .0164835
Also with the exception of WY applying alone ESPECIALLY in units with only a few tags can make a big difference. Imagine that most guys apply as a group of 2 and there are 3 tags. 2 guys draw. 1 tag left. NO GROUPS OF GUYS CAN DRAW and every app that is group eliminated. if there is 1 tag left and 100 apps your odds look like 1% but if 3/4 of those apps are groups your odds are 25% because the other 75%, if drawn, will be skipped over until an app is pulled with only 1 person.
DonV PE (civil engineer)
3/182 x 100 = 1.65% chances of drawing.
Matt
Graph the number of entries for the past 5 or ten years and you might get a fair idea of the number that will apply this year - if it's a fairly smooth upward trend.
Take care! Mike
I think only 75% because after reading the first one you would have 50% of your problems left. Then after you read the second one you would solve 50% what you have left. That would be 25% of your original problems.
Here is his reply....."Ok those are two very different types of draws, as you probably know. For Moose they use weighted points. Odds from the prior year are simple to calculate because CDPW gives us the weighted points of each NR applicant for each hunt code. So for an example lets say for GMU XXX bull moose there were 20 NR applicants and one NR license, and you have 5 weighted points. You merely sum the total weighted points of all applicants and then you divide your 5 points by that total. If that aforementioned sum equals lets say 128, then your draw odds are 5/128 or 3.9%. Forget about all the complexities of how they assign random numbers and all that stuff, because for odds calculations that internal process doesn't matter at all. Of course this won't reflect current upcoming 2022 odds, unless the applicant distribution this year is exactly the same as the prior year. It is still a good guideline though, as demand is usually "kinda" similar from year to year. For elk though, they use a 100% preference point draw. So unless you are on the cusp of drawing a tag based on having "almost enough" points, but rather have less points than required, then your odds will be zero. If you are right on that cusp, you can look at prior year draw data and see what your odds might be. There will be one point level where a random draw occurs, and you can find that in the Hunt Recap reports."
In this particular discussion, the odds aren't "fixed" at 3/182 or 1/119.....there is an element of "float" predicated on the applicants number of weighted points.....or is there more to consider? I like to ruminate on this stuff when in a tree or a blind....
Grey Ghost's Link
If you really want a head ache, try to make sense out of Colorado's weighted point system. See link.
Matt
For example if your random number was 100,000 and you have 5 weighted points you new number is 020,000. So you would move a head of anyone who's final number is less than that 020,000. I forget how many digits number they use but you should see the point.
If you want to get into those other subjects, be prepared for confusion and complex equations.
Unless you are referring to my first sentence. That might be confusing. That was answering your question on what guy that PM’ed you got wrong.
More weighted points do increase you odds *slightly*, but it still boils down to the random number that is assigned to your application, after it is inverted and converted. I don't think there is any way to accurately calculate your odds of drawing in that system.
Matt
JohnMC's Link
1-(181/182)*(180/181)*(179/180)
1-.984 = 1.6%
In this problem, this also happens to be 1-179/182 = 3/182.
The method above is how you would approach the problem if, say, your name was in the hat more than once, if you could win more than once, etc.
It is kinda irritating that 5 out of the 12 tags were drawn by applicants with fewer weighted points than me, and 4 of those tags were drawn with less than half as many weighted points as I have. It's a FUBAR system.
Matt
Once that’s all done, you’re left with some very depressing data on how horrible your draw odds truly are. So at the end of the day I skip all the work, pay the small annual fee to subscribe to Top Rut, skip all the hard work of calculating myself and go right into a depression that subsides a few days after my application is submitted, turns into optimism, only to be crushed once again due to my lack of luck. The great thing is this cycle is only limited by the number of states you’re willing to apply in!
Damn, that gave me a headache just writing it! By the way, for what it’s worth I believe that Top Rut’s odds are more accurate than Go Hunt’s odds. At least it was that way a few years ago but Go Hunt might’ve modified their math models.
Thanks for your optimism. Last year there were 99 applicants with equal or more weighted points than me in the unit I applied for. 7 of those applicants drew tags. So, now there are only 92 with equal or more points than me. Assuming the number of applicants and tag allocations remain about the same, that gives me a 7/92, or 7.6%, chance of drawing. So, you're saying I have a chance? ;-)
John, I do see your point. It is nice to know that my 35 year old best friend and hunting buddy actually stands a chance to draw a moose, sheep, or goat tag before he's too old to enjoy the hunts. I doubt he'll ever catch up to point creep in the best elk units, unless major changes are made.
Matt
I used to get bogged down in analyzing these draws trying to eek out slightly better odds…now I m just pleasantly surprised if I draw.
Years ago there was a thread on another forum in which the guys from Top Rut and GoHunt were arguing about their models, specifically for Nevada. I thought GoHunt was wrong and actually discussed the topic with my non-hunting but highly educated and extremely smart boss who was essentially the COO of the company I worked for. The guy had a PHd in mathematics and taught complex math at the university level before getting an MBA and getting into business. He’s still the smartest person I’ve ever known, although his social skills weren’t that great. He does math competitions to solve complex formulas on the internet to pass the time. Think Matt Damon’s character in “Good Will Hunting” smart, true genius. Anyway, he took an interest and looked into it and agreed Top Rut had the more accurate model, at least for Nevada, and that GoHunt had some very basic math flaws in their model. This led me to trust Top Rut more although I did keep my GoHunt membership for a few years because of the other information they have that TopRut doesn’t.
Those new folks are now hitting their 3 points which means they have a chance at moose, goat and ram tags. Their odds aren't as good as someone with a bunch of weighted points but the pool of folks at the bottom is huge so that group hits a bunch of really low random numbers and that uses up tags.
As an example, in 2020 with rough numbers there were 2700 moose applicants at the bottom of actually having a chance (3 points and zero weighted). In 2021 there were 8000 with 3+0. Those extra 5300 folks eligible to draw chew up a bunch of tags, there is another big group that is a year behind them that will also be eligible this year, and so on.
If two individuals apply for tags with 50% draw odds, (not as a group), does that mean there is a 75% chance that one of the two will draw?
If a train leaves St. Louis....
Yes it is a 33 years. Yes that stinks. BUT yes you will get a tag. If that sounds bad how does 1000:1 odds after 33 years of applying and no tag sound? That is what a no point system is. I see pros and cons to both. My favorite is NV, squared points. Man it makes a difference after a decade. After 20 years, squared points plus the 3% attrition rate your odds are always pretty good.
I actually enjoy the math, stats and studying them. It is fun for me. The crazy high costs combined with lower and lower odds and states figuring out how to attract more apps have made it crazy for new NR applying. Really crazy. I doubt many even truly understand jsut how bad it is AND where it is headed. Do you think app fees are going to level off? I do not. When a state triples it's apps fees less then half the apps drop out. Less work more money. WY will switch to bonus points and stick it to thousands of NR who have been applying got a decade or 2.
In WY I spend over $800 a year in fees, no tag, no license, nothing but a slim chance & points. I love WY and it has been good to me but I will never agree this is fair. And the logic of "everyone else is doing it" is silly.
If there are two people in a draw for one tag, the probability that one of them will be picked is 50%. But with only two people, it’s 100% that one of the two will be picked. In this case, you would add their individual probabilities together to get a combined probability. 50%+50%=100%.
Matt
Everyone in the pool gets a chance to "pull a marble out of a bag". There are 200 red marbles and 200 green marbles. A green marble is a tag, a red marble is a too bad, so sad. The chances of you getting a green marble goes down significantly if too many green marbles are pulled out of the bag before you get your turn. If you're number 201 in the line, you may not get the chance to pull a green marble. Each time a green marble is chosen, your probability goes down of getting one. On the flip side, it goes up each time a red marble is chosen.
This is why you cannot figure your true odds in a state like NM. First, you get randomly placed in line. Then you have to wait your turn hoping all the green marbles don't get chose by the time they come to you.
"One time" event odds for an individual (of which each draw is every year) are always theoretical. Technically, flipping a coin is 50/50. Reality is it can also come up heads 5 times in a row. (Depending on if you chose tails or not usually.....) Yet are always 50/50 each toss, you odds don't improve each toss. Yeah, over time blah blah.... But then I'm talking to a guy who pulled a bighorn tag out of his.... ahhh never mind.....
But, the only thing 100% is you will never draw if you never apply. Well, OK.... death, taxes....
Soooo, what I'm sayin' is..... you have a chance.... =D
Using the numbers above...starting with the first name pulled, the odds that neither person would be picked are 398/400. Play that out to 200 tags and multiply the odds from each time a name is pulled and you will get something very close to 25%. Essentially...
(398/400)*(397/399)*(396/398)*....*(199/201)*(198/200)
this reduces to
(199*198)/(400*399)
which equals .2469 or 25%.
This is the odds that neither person would be drawn...so to get the odds that the opposite even happens it would be 1-.2469...or basically 75%. With the first hypothetical where there is two people and one tag, the odds that neither person gets picked are none (0/2)...so the odds would be 1-0=100%
Now that approach doesn't account for if you're cursed, have bad luck, or any other factors that are keeping you from drawing a tag :)
Matt
