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CO Draw Question
Elk
Contributors to this thread:
Elk Assassin 01-Oct-22
sticksender 01-Oct-22
JohnMC 01-Oct-22
cnelk 01-Oct-22
goyt 01-Oct-22
Elk Assassin 01-Oct-22
Elk Assassin 01-Oct-22
Buglmin 01-Oct-22
LUNG$HOT 01-Oct-22
From: Elk Assassin
01-Oct-22
I've come to the most knowledgeable place I know of to see if I can get a question about the CO elk draw answered. I'm trying to determine if it makes sense for my son and I to put in as a group (of two) next year in a unit that is getting more difficult to draw with zero points. Both of us are residents with zero preference points. If our unit has a 46% chance to draw with zero points for every resident, do our individual odds of drawing go up if we put in as a group of two? I understand that we will both draw (or not) if we apply as a group, but my question is are our draw odds still just 46% even if we apply together? I've heard different ideas about how the CO draw works and am trying to figure out what benefit to draw odds (if any) occurs if you put in as a group. Any help you can offer would be greatly appreciated.

From: sticksender
01-Oct-22
You can't know what your odds will be since all you have to go by is last year's data. No way to predict next year's applicant pool, although sometimes, especially in the Colorado draw, the prior year is a rough approximation. But your odds won't be improved by applying as a group, they will be about the same or slightly less. The only reason they'll be slightly less is that if your app happens to be pulled with one tag remaining, you won't draw due to the group size of 2. If it happened that way, they'd set your group application aside and draw the next single applicant in line. But for all practical purposes, other than the scenario mentioned, you'll have roughly same odds as an individual app.

From: JohnMC
01-Oct-22
Sticks sender is correct. They go by the number of points of the lowest person in the group. Since you guys are both zero that will be the same. One of you will be the group leader. If that person draws the whole group draws. Unless it's the scenario that stickssender mentioned.

One other thing that might help your son have better odds depending on his age and the unit is a certain amount of tags are set aside for youth.

From: cnelk
01-Oct-22
Go back and look at the Draw Stats for 2-3 years. You’ll see if the % odds stayed the same or slipped a bit each year.

JohnMC is also correct - it also depends if tag allotment stayed the same over the course of the past 2-3 years.

You’ll never know if the applicant pool with 0-1 PPs increases each year but the Draw Stats will give you a good idea of that.

From: goyt
01-Oct-22
As a group, if everything is the same as last draw you and your son will have a 46% chance of both drawing. As individuals you each have a 46% chance of drawing, so the first person has a 46% chance of drawing and a 54% chance of not drawing. If that person draws the second person also has a 46% chance so there is a .46 X .46 = .2116 or 21.16% chance you will both draw. If the first person does not draw there is a 54% chance that the second person will not draw so .54 X .54 = .2916 or a 29.16 % chance of neither drawing. If the first person does not draw there is a 46% chance that the second person will or .54 X .46 = .2484. So, there is a 46% chance that the first person will draw and if he doesn't which is 54% likely, the chance that one of two will draw is 46% plus 24.84% = 70.84%. So, there is a 70.84% that 1 of 2 will draw. 21.16% both will draw and 29.16% that neither will draw.

From: Elk Assassin
01-Oct-22
Thanks to you all for the great info. Definitely answered my question, not necessarily the answer I hoped for, but definitely answered my question. I'd heard (from an apparently unreliable source), that each individual in the group gets a ball in the hopper per se...and if any of the group draws, the whole group is granted tags. This sounded too good to be true and looks like it is. Thanks for all of the info! Doug

From: Elk Assassin
01-Oct-22
Thanks to you all for the great info. Definitely answered my question, not necessarily the answer I hoped for, but definitely answered my question. I'd heard (from an apparently unreliable source), that each individual in the group gets a ball in the hopper per se...and if any of the group draws, the whole group is granted tags. This sounded too good to be true and looks like it is. Thanks for all of the info! Doug

From: Buglmin
01-Oct-22
Everything the CPW does one year changes the next year. We've been talking to the CPW officers here and the CPW regional manager in Durango, and were told by several that the next few years don't look good for Colorado residents in drawing tags. CPW wants residents to eventually draw tags every 3 to 4 years, and those that drew this year probably won't draw next year. They said with the growing number of resident bowhunters, many coming over from rifle, drawing every 3 years is the goal for the draw units down here in sw Colorado and the units that will go to draw next year.

From: LUNG$HOT
01-Oct-22
Doug, that’s definitely not the case “everyone gets a ball in the hopper”. As group application goes in as 1 ball in the hopper. My 2 sons and I put in for a unit that was 96% success rate last year with 0 points (group application) and didn’t draw this year. I’m fairly certain they cut some tag numbers in the unit this year which they haven’t done for quite a while. No telling what would have been if we applied separately. Good luck.

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