Help understanding AZ Bonus Pass
Elk
I've been thinking about finally cashing in my AZ elk points and have been researching units and studying the odds in order to maximize the return on the time and money invested. The Bonus pass report has me a little baffled. Looking at 3154, there are 6 non resident applications with 19 points but only one of them got a permit, but all 6 with 18 points appear to have drawn. Wouldn't all of the 19 point holders have drawn before they went to those with 18?
3153 is even more confusing with none of the 15 applicants with 16-20 points drawing a permit but 7 of the 12 with 14 or 15 points drawing. Why wouldn't the higher point holding applicants have been awarded the permits? I'm missing something but haven't been able to figure out what. Thanks in advance for your help.
May not have applied for the tag? Just points?
I’ve had a drink or two tonight, so not into doing any math. But rule number one is, NR in the bonus pass can get up to but not exceeding 5% of allocated tags.
And there is no heading shown on those columns of numbers to know what they mean.
I understand the allocation percentages. What I don’t get is how those in a higher point pool than those whose drew were left behind. Sorry about the lack of headings. Here you go…..
I agree that it doesn’t make sense! Sorry I can’t help beyond agreeing with you that it doesn’t make sense….
Very frustrating. The report makes it look like no one with more than 19 points applied for 3154, which is unit 10 early archery, and no one with more than 20 applied for unit 9 early archery. That seems impossible.
Yeah it can be confusing. BTW, hunt code numbers changed for 2023. It sounds like you're looking at the wrong hunt codes. Refer to last year's
2022 regs & hunt numbers when using the report you posted, instead of the new 2023 hunt numbers. They're all different this year. Hunt 3154 was 5B North early archery in the 2022 report you posted, not Unit 10. And Unit 9 early archery was 3162 last year, and had NR apps with up to 26 points.
But, considering your other question....this is from the AZ website:
In the Bonus Pass, the first and second hunt choices for all applications with maximum bonus points are looked at first. If permits are still available from the 20% allocation, then the next lower bonus point category is looked at; and so on, until all of the 20% allocation is issued.....I'm guessing that the 5 out of 6 NR who didn't draw 3154 (5B North) with top tier points had already drawn a different hunt code.
That report is hosed up; there was 1 total at 19 who drew, 6 total at 18 who drew, 8 total at 17 and 1 drew.
I guess I feel a little better that I'm not the only one seeing it that way. Talk about false hope though. With 23 points, looking at their data, I would be almost assured of drawing either of those. Apparently that's not actually the case though. Guess I'll just keep waiting......
Last year's draw results are useful but far from a guarantee for this year. For example, tags are cut this year for that hunt draw or word gets out before applications are due that a huge critter survived through the seasons last year so a lot more applicants decide to shift and apply to that particular unit. Tag creep does not always happen and sometimes is not a full point from last year. Good luck.
23 points is way more than enough to draw either of those hunts last year but those were different hunts than 2023. Your only chance will be the 1-2 pass this year for those hunt codes; 8 and 9 archery.
Hopefully you didn’t ponder this too long…grin- the elk draw ended yesterday….
Edit- ooops, thx for correcting me
No, he has until February 14th...
deadline 2/14 @ 11:59 MST
There are a few things at play with AZ and bonus rounds and this report doesn't separate resident and nonresident. Like pirogue stated if the 5% cap has been met for nonresidents then they can no longer draw in the bonus round. That is one option that the remaining applicants with 19 points are nonresidents. Another possibility is those other applicants with 19 points drew on their second choice. I see this every year someone cant figure out why they didn't draw their first choice. Most of the time its because they drew their second choice. It's pretty easy to tell by asking what tag number they drew once the results are posted. If a unit has 100 tags then 20% = 20 tags will be drawn in the bonus round. So if the person says I drew tag 1 - 20 there is your answer, you drew your second choice in the bonus round. As a resident you didn't need 19 points to draw 5BN archery so my guess is all those with 19 points are nonresidents and they either drew their second choice in a different unit or didn't draw at all. I hope this helps.
So do I understand it that the only real shot you have at a quality tag is your first and second choice. The others 3,4,5 are basically leftovers that weren't filled? And those will not be quality tags, correct? Just trying to get right in my thought process...
First, for those that said "maybe they didn't apply for the hunt, just for points", those applicants would not show up on this report. This portion of the report ONLY shows those that applied for this particular hunt number (unit). Bonus point applicants would be shown on this report under Hunt Number 3000, not 3154.
Second, the report does seem to contain an error. The total column is less than the NR column, so I'd say all the data is suspect at that point.
Third, in response to: "I'm guessing that the 5 out of 6 NR who didn't draw 3154 (5B North) with top tier points had already drawn a different hunt code." While that doesn't immediately make sense to many, since 5 of them had it first choice so how could they draw something else before their first choice, it is entirely possible to draw a permit in Arizona with your second choice and not only NOT draw your first choice but it's actually possible to have permits for your first choice left over after the drawing even after you only drew your second choice! This is very unlikely to happen in the elk drawing, but it happens every year with some of the other species! It's an error in Arizona's draw system that they don't feel is important enough to address.
So, there are a few things that could have occurred (assuming a reporting error isn't the culprit). The error in the drawing itself, which I mentioned above, could cause this, but the error shouldn't be able to affect someone that was in the highest level of bonus points. The other way it could occur is if more people applied on one application than there are NR permits available. For example, if four NRs applied together and the 5% of the total tags available for that hunt number is an amount less than 4, they could never draw no matter how many bonus points they ever accrue. However, there were (up to) 8 available for this hunt number, so that doesn't seem to apply here either. The only other thing I can think of would have been if the people that did not draw had an issue with their credit card. They would have been added to this report since they applied, but they would not have been issued a permit if their credit card failed when charged.
In2dmtns, as far as your question "So do I understand it that the only real shot you have at a quality tag is your first and second choice. The others 3,4,5 are basically leftovers that weren't filled? And those will not be quality tags, correct? Just trying to get right in my thought process..."
That is essentially true if you are applying for a bull tag (no matter which weapon) in any hunt other than limited opportunity hunts. You could draw one of those, or a cow tag, in the 3-5 choices, but it is highly unlikely to draw a quality tag as you mentioned.
Just looking through these reports, even for species other than elk (this one's deer), the Total Column seems to not add up to the R and NR columns throughout, so there seem to be a LOT of errors in these reports. That, or we don't understand what the word "Total" means.
Again just guessing, as I've never called them to ask, but in the applicants columns, I figured the "Total" is applications (each consisting of 1-4 people) and "Res" and "Non-Res" are the number of people on those applications. Notice that they list "Group Bonus Points" atop the left column.
Yes I was referring to a bull tag. Thanks for the clarification Sticksender..
