CO Goat and Sheep draw
Mountain Goat
Tomorrow is the day for Goat and Sheep draw in CO. Post up when cards are hit. Share your good fortune and bad luck.
Maybe the odds always be in your favor.
Goodluck! Feel like I'll have to go into witness protection from all the 20+ pointers if I draw a ram tag with my 3+2.
Nah. Last year 3+1 nonresidents drew more tags than 3+21 (max) residents did. Folks have adjusted to disappointment pretty well.
Hopefully someone will have the luck I did last year and draw em both!
I drew S09 with 3+3 last year as resident. Good luck to all!
Be happy to share my experience and learnings for those who draw this year.
I’ve got 3+20 but just applied for a point because I’ve got to get a hip replacement this summer and didn’t know if I’d be able to go in the unlikely event I drew a tag
I know it won’t be me. I’ve never applied for S/G
Thanks for the heads up, been checking for the past week. I’m only in with 3+4 Long shot
Same here, only 3+5 and 3+6, but hope springs eternal. At least until tomorrow.
My card just got hit with an unsuccessful charge for one of the draws.
My card just got hit for a preference point. I only applied for a sheep point due to being in the penalty box for the last 5 years.
Heard of one $350 charge for sheep
This is the rallying cry of all sheep and mt goat applicants....
Somebody needs to make a t-shirt
Go luck to all.
A buddy has a $50 point charge for a sheep pt he's in the penalty box for mt goat.
A buddy woke me up with news of a $346 charge. We’ll see what it is.
100.00 point charge for me, as of 10:00 am EST
346 charge, either me or the wife.
Looking like another swing and a miss. Had a $50 and $100 charge on the card this morning. Would be for me and the boy.
Got a $50 charge on my card. Pretty sure I picked the no preference point option. If 18 points won't help, 19 isn't going to help much more. Not the first time I have posted this image.
Been told they removed PP from person that drew. So for you wondering who in the household drew might check that.
Sounds like goat is now being charged
I just received my unsuccessful sheep e-mail. Still waiting on goat.
Just saw the dreaded "Not Awarded" for sheep.
No sheep here- 3+12. Haven’t bought a point in 3 years
Another CC charge 100.00 as of 12:00 pm, so no Goat for me.
Looks like Desert Sheep will be the final draw posted today.
I got a CC hit. Goat or Desert, either will work. Was max or near for goat. Most likely the hit.
Sticksender so your saying there is a chance
No sheep tag for me, dang it!
30 years of disappointment continues
Looking like the cost of points for my son and I are all that went through on the CC. Two at $50 for me and two at $100 for him.
Good luck to all the lucky winners! Looking forward to seeing your recaps and hearing about the hunts!
For about the 30th year, no luck.
Confirmed, Central CO goat tag., sure beats OTC elk.
20 years ago I helped my buddy get his goat off a 13,500 peak.
Right then and there I decided that sheep and goat wasn’t my style.
Focused on moose, elk and deer after that
Just a charge for a point.
No tags in my household. Not buying points anymore. I'll keep applying as long as I live here but no longer plan on drawing someday.
Where's Clerko and all the other weighted point proponents I want to hear about all the tags they drew?
No sheep, and now no goat. I just hope I get my cow moose license.
I was waiting on our math wizard to come along and tell us about "weighted points" being worthless
What did you draw with all those weighted points KsRancher?
There are 320 sheep tags give or take including ewes. Since the payment change, the pool of people eligible to draw grows by 3000-4000 each year. Weighted points do help individual odds slightly but the giant influx of applicants means everyone's chances get much worse each year.
I have never even applied for moose, sheep or goat
Ha Ha seriously KsRancher you've never applied, classic
I've been on bowsite a long time. Wasted a lot of time. No doubt learned a fair amount. I am going to share one thing I have learned that is irrefutable. Don't try to explain the math of the draw to Orion. Just go strat to beating your head against the fall. ;)
What Orion are you one of those whining 20+ pointers that can't get over the draw going to weighted points? Yes points make your chances better and yes anyone with 3+1 could also draw. That's why it's one of the best big 3 systems out there although prefer random personally.
I know plenty of folks who don't understand the math of the draw odds. Many think that buying a weighted point means that next year their odds of drawing are a little better than they were this year.
Their odds of drawing are worse, just a tiny bit less worse than if they didn't buy a point.
I've already drawn so no I don't have any weighted points. Just trying for my kids now as they just hit eligibility a little bit ago 16 and 14 years old
Glunt it's no use some of these guys think their odds improve every year
Nope. Hunting them was never on my radar. But a couple of years ago I started looking at them. And decided that as a NR starting now was REALLY bad odds. Had I started 15yrs ago they would be bad. But still better than starting now. I think when I ran the numbers on moose that last yr a person's 10 and up drew at 3 times the rate 10 and under did. Now they are both bad. But 3 times higher is still 3 times higher.
I think it was something like 0.17% of NR with 10 and under drew. And 0.53% with 10 and up drew.
Never said the odds get better every year. Yes, the higher point holders odds get worse the more applicants jump in. The edge that they have is getting smaller. And it gets even worse if you quit buying the extra point. I agree with all that. But the numbers don't lie that a higher point holder has a higher percentage chance of drawing the tag than a lower one.
At least with the new system they MIGHT have a chance at hunting a sheep or goat before having to have knee replacement surgery or drawing social security.
What new system? The weighted point system hasn't changed
As Journey said Don't stop believing!!!
Yea that was confusing. Just meant weighted vs true preference point system. I guess orginal system would be better it's unique in the west but certainly not new anymore.
No sheep, no goat. I was mildly optimistic.
I think it's time that we all just stop applying in Colorado. I strongly advise everyone to do that. It is a complete waste of time.
JohnMc show me how any long time applicants chances are improving with the influx of applicants CPW now allows to flood the system. KsRanchers formula works for non residents, but residents with 3+10 and below are drawing a larger majority of the tags then the high point applicants and that is not going to change.
Orion. Yes they are drawing a larger number of tags. But so are the NR. The resident percentage are just the same as NR. If I remember a resident with 10+ had a 1.5% draw success and residents with 10 and under drew at .5%
Now don't hold me to those exact numbers. I am going off of memory. Now will you be able to to show a specific unit that doesn't fit the average. Yes, you will. But it's not because there isn't a edge. It's because the sample size isn't large enough
Edit. I realize I have been posting about stuff that doesn't have anything to do with what the OP intended this thread for. So I will not post anymore to it, so as not derail it anymore than I already have
Orion see by post above. Or if you want my rationale. I spent way more time than I ever should have explaining how one individual with many points has a better chance than one individual with none or few points. I think it was on the CO forum around this time last year or maybe two years ago.
Hint the key is to look at one person in each group not a small pool of individuals with many points vs a large pool of individuals with none or few points.
In other words does a group of 1000 people at low points have a better chance than of someone in a group with high points of 10 drawing 1 tag, maybe. But not one individual. The odds are substantially better for the individual with many points.
That is as far down the rabbit hole I am going. Have fun those of you that do!
Bow killed my BHS in 1997 with 6 PP, Mt Goat in 2001 with 8 PP. Been applying for a Desert Sheep ever since. No luck this year and do not plan on it happening in my life time. The Good thing, the memory of both of those hunts will be with me forever.
Orion's spirit animal. 2+2 does not equal 4.
JohnMC let me know how that conversation goes with the guys sitting on max points that keep getting passed on year after year after year.
Actually you are both right.
Weighted points are an advantage
The growth of the overall pool reduces odds of drawing more than the weighted points help.
A max point holder is better off than a 3+0 in the draw but that max point holder's odds of drawing go down every year just like everyone elses.
Orion I am fairly close to max point guys. Truth is your odds are better than random with weighted points.
Can you imagine sheep or goat hunting in CO if it max points. The sheep hunters would be so old every sheep hunting thread would be how to hunt sheep with walker or out of a wheel chair.
I got my desert sheep rejection but nothing for Mountain Goat eyat went to the CPW site and it didn't have my goat app listed with other draw history... I'm pretty careful and don't think I missed applying might that mean something good or bad?
I drew a sheep tag , can’t believe I am going sheep hunting, I thought one day I would draw a desert sheep tag but in my wildest dreams I never thought a Rocky Mountain, Tom
Congrats to those that drew. Zip and zip for me this year.
No sheep tag for me. Buddy drew a goat tag.
bowhunter1.....congrats, ram or ewe?
I put in for a ewe tag after not applying for 3 or 4 years, and drew. S69, here I come. Trying to burn any points I have before CO ends up in my rear view mirror.
No Desert Bighorn tag for me!.... Congrats to those that drew a tag.
Drew 2nd season archery in S32. This will be my first sheep tag. I’m already making plans.
If goHunt’s stats are legit I’m surprised anyone would buy more weighted points. It’s so minimal for a tag very few NR’s will pull in their lifetimes. It was an easy decision for me to stop at 17.
My ram from the same unit last year
My ram from the same unit last year
fishnride's Link
My Son just drew the same tag that I had last year!!! Some of you might remember the semi live thread from last summer.
Sticksender, I drew a ram tag in unit S9. Tom
If goHunt’s stats are legit I’m surprised anyone would buy more weighted points. It’s so minimal for a tag very few NR’s will pull in their lifetimes. It was an easy decision for me to stop at 17.
Nothing here but I have drawn both in the past so odds are loooow. True about so many new eligible applicants each year it makes odds worse then points help. I keep trying for the "easiest" tags, and nanny goat tags, hoping.
Congrat's to those who drew!
Drew sheep archery S44! I have had a couple days to process and still have a hard time believing it is real!
Congrats to all the lucky tag holders! Sign up to attend the Rocky Mountain Bighorn Society annual Rendezvous on May 20th in Grand Junction. You will meet hundreds of sheep and goat nuts, including some who know your unit. Registration page: https://www.bighornsheep.org/rendezvous/
While there, consider joining RMBS as we are the organization that does more than any other to put more sheep and goats on the mountain to ensure we all have these wild critters to enjoy and the very hunt opportunity you just received. Great group men and women devoted to wild sheep.
Membership has privileges! As you might imagine, knowing how rare it is to draw a tag, we go out of our way to help fellow members when their lucky numbers has been drawn to give them as much intel as possible to start scouting and hunting. We help members and non members but why not join and help the cause.
Lastly, keep an eye out for info on our annual sheep and goat hunter meet and greet event this summer, date to be determined. We connect freshly minted tag holders with experts and previous tag holders for invaluable networking and information sharing. A great way to get a leg up on your hunt preparation and make new life long friends in the process.
“Like and follow” our RMBS facebook page to keep up to date on our events and activities: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100087019690165
Kirby Wynn, current RMBS board member and 3x lucky sheep and 2x lucky mtn goat tag holder and hunte
Congrats to the successful folks.
Looking at the stats the old timers should be relatively pleased this year. The 2018 and after pay-later crowd only drew three ram tags (one more than last year I believe, though 1200 more were eligible). The 3 and 10+ folks snagged 14/24 ram tags with only about 20% of the total eligible applicants.
65% of the sheep tags went to the 3+10 to 3+0 groups. They drew 179 of 273 tags. Out of the 109 applicants with max points (3+22) only six drew tags. Keep buying those weighted points though.
How many of those were ewe tags that most of the time you can draw with none to only a few points?
John, I’m seeing 339 total sheep tags and 99 of those ewes. Not sure on Orion’s math. My figures were obviously NR ram totals. And again, the pool that came in after the rule change (over half of the total NR applicants now) drew 12% of the ram tags. The folks with 3 and 10+ drew 58% of the tags. When I’m eligible again I’ll probably buy points. :)
John I didnt count the group of 2+0 and 1+0 applicants that drew as those were obviously ewe tags. KB those are the resident odds straight from CPW's statistics page.
I didn't count the 10 youth that drew between 3+0 and 3+3 either
Colorado”s system is pretty hard to beat. Why switch to what we have with elk where the top point holders get everything, and those behind the power curve are left with shattered dreams?
Where Colorado messed up was opening the flood gates with no up front costs. The draw system is about perfect apart from going full in random. I wish they’d do the same across the board.
I still think they could go to a model like Utah. Lets say there are 5 ram tags for a unit. 3 could go to top point applicants and the other 2 could be dispersed as they are now. That way everyone still has a chance at a tag and you could reward the longtime applicants as well.
You forgot that if it was like Utah and there were 5 ram tags, 4 would go to auction and expo tags and 1 would go into the draw. :)
I have 14 points (3 + 11) I drew 15 years ago. It seems like I have a SLIM chance at an average tag. Congrat's to guys who drew. I drew a leftover ewe tag about 5 years ago as a second choice FYI, S32 rifle I believe.
