It will have links to draw "odds" and harvest reporting from those that were surveyed.
With 18 pts and looking to do do an archery hunt, either the Central Manti or Wasatch may be your best best. Maybe Fishlake as well.
I wouldn't burn a single pt on a UT archery hunt, unless that were the only hunt in the unit that allowed you to hunt until Sept 30.
What kind of a hunt are you after? What size of a bull would you hope to shoot?
The archery hunt in Utah is extremely difficult due to the dates and the sheer numbers of recreationalists, deer hunters, and general season elk hunters.
That said, most LE units hold a lot of elk and with a lot of effort you should get a chance or two at a 5 pt or better bull.
Muzzleloader (even open sight) and rifle, of course, make it much more doable.
I would not discourage you from coming to Utah and if you do - send me a PM and I will help you with intel on whatever unit you draw.
I know the Wasatch and Manti really well.
330 bulls are no longer the “herd bull” of the unit. 330 type bulls are few and far between. As of this past season it seems the Wasatch and Manti have finally dropped into their respective management age classes.
That said, a 300” bull is still a great bull and would be a great trophy.
That is an incredible bull and that unit would rival any in the country! That is the beauty of Utahs system! Everyone has a chance to draw!
That's my story and I'm sticking to it :)
Hunt name Hunt # Season dates
Cache, North EB3132 Sept. 1–Sept. 30
Plateau, Barney Top/Kaiparowits EB3135 Sept. 1–Sept. 30
Southwest Desert, North EB3136 Sept. 1–Sept. 30
West Desert, Deep Creek EB3137 Sept. 1–Sept. 30
Archery hunts — late season (new) Note: Multi-season limited-entry elk permits are not valid on this late-season archery elk hunt.
Hunt name Hunt # Season dates
Beaver, East EB3158 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek/East EB3161 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Cache, Meadowville† EB3168 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Cache, South EB3170 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Central Mtns, Manti EB3172 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Central Mtns, Nebo/San Pitch Mtns EB3174 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Fillmore, Pahvant EB3180 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
La Sal, La Sal Mtns EB3182 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Monroe EB3184 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Mt Dutton EB3186 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Panguitch Lake EB3188 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Plateau, Boulder EB3190 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lakes EB3192 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
San Juan Bull Elk EB3193 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
South Slope, Diamond Mtn EB3195 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Southwest Desert, South EB3197 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Wasatch Mtns EB3199 Dec. 2–Dec. 17
Good luck, Robb
Still waiting for NM to pony up and give me an antelope tag, UT already came through...
So if you want to ensure that you will hunt someday, even if it's 20 years in the future, UT is a little more predictable. As a NM resident, however, you would have gotten a tag 3 or 4 times in that same period. And, by the way, had a chance of killing just as big of bulls.
I don't think either system is optimal, just to be clear. I think bonus points which increase your chance every unsuccessful year, but give everyone a chance is the fairest way to go. Preference points were fine when you could draw every 2-5 years. Once it went over 10, it's not good option any more.
There is no guarantee you'd pull a NM elk tag 3 or 4 times in 20 yrs either.
NM elk hunts are not (or weren't) 30% draw either. You can't calculate your odds with how NM does its draw. The only thing NM's "odds" show you is how many people got a hunt code awarded to them as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice. You can't predict that because there isn't a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd run for the draw. It's a crap shoot, winner takes all.
If NM had a system similar to UT, I'd be at 6 pts now for elk, 12 for deer, and a bunch more than that for antelope....
No guarantee you would draw 3 or 4 times, but at 30% each round, you should.
Yes, odds were 30% for first choice. I can show you a spreadsheet where I calculated my odds every single year. It was absolutely spot on. The catch is it only works for first choices because of what you mentioned. Get the spreadsheets from G&F and check. Most odds programs like gohunt do not break that out so they're off.
Make no mistake, I’m not saying Utahs system is great. But it is the best out there.
At least in Utah everyone has a chance to draw. The reality is that we have way more applicants than we have tags. We will never meet the demand of the population.
It’s really no different if you relate it to housing. I live in a home that is worth 5-6 times what I bought it for yet my kids pay double what I pay to rent an apartment.
Demand is outpacing supply all around us and inflation is killing us as well.
The 1 tag offerings, not so much.
You can still use your bow during the Any Weapon season that most call rifle hunts.
Good luck, Robb
The 1st hurdle any applicant needs to get over is to have their application fall within the field of the total of all elk licenses available. 2nd, it needs to fall within the field of the licenses available for a given hunt code regardless of where that hunt code falls as their choice ranking.
If an applicant gets to have their elk application come in dead last at the bottom every year after the shuffle, 30% odds are never achievable. That dead last includes all the applications before it; deer, oryx, barbary sheep, javelina, etc.
With how NM does its draw, you cannot calculate the likelihood of how many times you'll "win".
It's like a bag of marbles where there are 300 green marbles indicating a tag. There are 1000 white marbles represented by all 1st choice, 2nd choice, and 3rd choice applicants. White marbles are the total number of all the choices using a hunt code, not stand-alone applications. Each applicant that used the hunt code as a choice is holding a white marble and is wearing a different colored t-shirt, blue for 1st choice, yellow for 2nd choice, and red for 3rd choice. There are 600 wearing blue, 300 wearing yellow, and 100 wearing red. Everyone in the running is standing in a line randomly. As the first person walks up to the bag, they pull out a green marble and toss in their white marble. This process is followed until all 300 marbles have been pulled. As the process progresses down the line, the likelihood of you pulling out a green marble goes down for each white marble that is tossed in.
The process is even more complex than this because on draw day there are multiple bags labeled as a hunt code with green marbles in them. As an applicant walks up to the bag and all the green marbles are gone, they immediately go to another bag with a hunt code labeled as their 2nd choice. If those green are all gone, they go to the bag labeled as their 3rd choice. If there is a green marble, they drew their 3rd choice with you watching which happened to be your 1st choice. No applicant is wearing a colored t-shirt categorizing them as 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.
By the way, you watched this happen through your 10x40 Swaro's from the very back of the line...
With how UT does their draw, if you get "shanked" for 15 years, on the 16th year you're given a VIP pass to the very front of the line. However, every year that ended with getting "shanked", you were given an extra opportunity each year for the chance to draw a VIP pass before the draw process even began while you compete for a "NM random" chance like everyone else on half of the available tags. You just get to be the first one to pull a green marble out of the sack. And it gets even better than that. If you're in a category with 3 other people for 50% of those tags, you're most definitely in a calculatable odd on the outcome. If there is only 1 tag, you have a 33% chance. If there are 2, you have a 66% chance. If there are 4, you have a 100% chance and the next guy in line for that 1 remaining 50% tag cut has a calculatable odd of what that outcome will be. Guaranteed. I was that guy for antelope this year. I am that guy for general deer and antlerless elk next year. Depending on what hunt and weapon I choose, I'm that guy for LE deer and will be one of those 3 above for LE elk. For NM, it's literally a crap shoot.
I realize that the NR has way tougher odds but so does Az. I drew random Az this past year.
Bottom line for all - you gotta play to win and as my friend Bulelk1 says: “you gotta believe!”-