Ask, and thou shall receive. Just starting a new thread on the market so we dont scroll down 650!
Been a good run for me... I'm still young enough at mid life to be playing the long game. But it's been a very good run for my retirement accounts and the kids college funds...
It's been a good run lately. Getting a little nervous as I'm getting close to retirement. Should pull some more out probably. But I have plenty of cash to get me through 3-4 years of bad.
Every thing I have read about why the stock market is soaring has to do with 401ks and people investing in the stock market. There is "x" amount of shares out there and people are scrambling for them making them artificially high. There will be a serious day of reckoning when a real correct adjustment is made. These are weird times with China getting in the mix so strongly.
"^^^^ exactly what I was thinking when I read his post"
Yeah, loosely stock prices are tied to the expected value of the future cash flows of a company, and perceptions about both the company and the broader economy will impact the expectations on those cash flows.
But at the end of the day, it's all supply and demand. As I always like to point out, "What is something worth? Whatever someone is willing to pay for it."
Nobody has been correct in market predictions all the time so I've always been a long term investor. Thankfully the market is up, partially since earnings have been ok, it is indexed for inflation and also because it is predicting a rate cut. If we enter stagflation, which I don't think will happen the market will have a huge correction. I'm hoping it gets past the summer without something big happening. The credit card debt exploding has me a little worried though.
A couple general observations; India is rocking...and should continue to do so
The big well known high tech companies have become a safe reliable space.....not as volatile as they were in the past. Makes sense, they are well capitalized and integral to our lives and business worldwide.
The economy is not the same as the stock market- I get the feeling some folks think its synonymous.
Will, thanks for starting a new discussion on the market. I’m 73 and not at all a smart investor, I’m just an average guy. But I had a boss back in 1984 that said “you must start investing in the stock market.” I did so soon after via my company 401k. And after maxing that 401K, I started investing with one of the bigger investment firms. That allowed me to retire, debt free, with a lot in savings at age 61. You younger guys, if you’re not investing in a balanced portfolio with at least 10% of your earning are really missing an opportunity.
What amount of government debt is too much? When do the interest payments exceed tax revenues? If it’s not $34.7 trillion in debt, what number is it? $50 trillion? $100? Since the USA is adding $1 trillion of debt every 3 months that seems unsustainable? Currency crisis anyone?
Maybe that’s the biggest answer to, “What are those "real correct adjustments" that aren't being accounted for?”
Doubt it, Mike. Don't see federal debt as (1) much of a secret or (2) meaningfully impactful to the economy until it reaches much higher levels.
200% of GDP is frequently cited as the threshold of sustainability. Most predictions don't have us there for another 20 years. In short, completely meaningless wrt current equity prices, and completely meaningless to future price forecasts.
Not saying government spending isn't out of control. It is. I just don't see it being much of a threat to the economy, valuations, etc for quite some time.
Treat it early. That said, I don't subscribe to the viewpoint that debt/leverage is cancer. Frankly, if you want to continue the medical analogy, in many ways I'd argue debt prevented a cancer in the economy from growing.
"So 20 years times 4 trillion per year gives another 80 trillion to the 34 trillion equaling 114 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Got it."
I said a threshold that is commonly cited is 200% of GDP. It's not a hard fact. What is a fact is our deficits are not $4 trillion per year. Furthermore, you've completely ignored the denominator in the percentage I cited above, Mike. So maybe try again...
I stand corrected, it’s every 100 days to add 1 trillion in debt, not 4 trillion in one year. So let’s do 3.65 times 20 years equals 73 trillion in ADDITIONAL debt, totalling 107 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Did I get it right?
I’m still confused on the woman with a penis thing too? That one is even more baffling to me!
"I stand corrected, it’s every 100 days to add 1 trillion in debt, not 4 trillion in one year. So let’s do 3.65 times 20 years equals 73 trillion in ADDITIONAL debt, totalling 107 trillion. That’s when it MAY be a problem? Did I get it right?"
Not really. Just because there were two $1 trillion/100 day spikes doesn't mean that rate will be sustained through the FY. Last year's deficit came in under $2 trillion, as a reference point. And again, you're completely ignoring the denominator. See the chart above which doesn't.
"I’m still confused on the woman with a penis thing too? That one is even more baffling to me!"
Clearly. It's not really a hard concept, Mike. Try googling "difference between gender and sex" and maybe you'll learn something.
"BEG, so to support your point of view you’re going to pull out the chicken or the egg analogy? That’s like saying I’m in debt so bad because of my spending habits I’m going to take on more debt so I can spend more."
I never said that. Regardless, "debt so bad" is a subjective thing.
"What you’re saying is spend more until it gets even worse then I’ll worry about it."
No, my point is I'll worry about it when it approaches a level that feels worrisome. While I think that government spending needs curtailment, I don't for a second think our current deficit levels pose a threat to the economy. This country's balance sheet on the whole is still incredibly health, which is probably why we're viewed as a great creditor and have a captive audience of investors (domestically and foreign). US debt is considered one of, if not the, safest assets in the world. Until that changes, I'm not worried.
"Maybe a better idea is to cut back on spending habits and quit finding new things to spend money on ."
Agree. But as I alluded to in the cancer analogy, some of the largest deficits that were run up were as a result of economic shocks that threatened to crater the economy. I certainly prefer a hands off approach, but also fully believe without the government safety net the economic impact of the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic would have been much worse.
I'm obviously not a pro on economics. The corrections I was talking about were such things as "covid scare, Russian aggression and such events as the 2008 crash. Just writing things as I understand them.
Ok, bigeasy, first your chart isn’t showing up on my feed. It just shows a question mark.
But we have 2 trillion a year minimum additional debt and 4 trillion a year as an upper end “spike”, love the new term by the way, gives a 3 trillion average extra? Can we go with that?
So 3 trillion a year for 10 years makes the debt 64 trillion, that’s no problem, and 94 trillion after 20 years is where we MAY get into some trouble? Even though we have about 1 trillion right now in interest payments, on 34 trillion debt. Interest payments now equal defence spending, no problem. Almost 3 times that amount in 20 years is only possibly an issue? Did I get it now?
And on the gender/sex thing if my father who had a beard and a wiener, came out to our family and said, “you now need to call me she/her, I’m a woman, just like your mom”, we should have gone along with that, not referred him to a therapist for some serious mental health problems?! And would my parents have then been in a lesbian relationship? This really is even more confusing than this whole debt thing?!!
“So 3 trillion a year for 10 years makes the debt 64 trillion, that’s no problem, and 94 trillion after 20 years is where we MAY get into some trouble? Even though we have about 1 trillion right now in interest payments, on 34 trillion debt. Interest payments now equal defence spending, no problem. Almost 3 times that amount in 20 years is only possibly an issue? Did I get it now?”
You tell me, Mike. People have been worrying about national debt for as long as I can remember. National debt is 5x what it 20 years ago. Doesn’t seem like in sunk the economy or held back the stock market to me. Does it to you?
“The corrections I was talking about were such things as "covid scare, Russian aggression and such events as the 2008 crash. Just writing things as I understand them.”
All good, nchunter. The way you wrote your post made it sound like there was a belief that assets were mis-priced and weren’t accounting for some sort of information. All of the things you mentioned were shocks that were certainly incorporated into the market. There will no doubt be other be future corrections, some predictable some less so. I got the sense that whoever your source is was saying there’s a predictable bubble happening.
Trying to be on my best behavior on this thread- grin
The WSJ today points out the underperformance of the DOW index vs others including the S&P. The dow underperformed the S&P by 27% in the last 4 1/2 years- significant. I would stay away from funds focusing on the DOW.
If I was a young guy now, I would look hard at the performance of the tech ETF’s from Vanguard and Fidelity. A no brainer to DCA into those LT.
I don’t like past performance as a criteria to invest in many areas, but tech is different and it will outperform for decades to come.
Those who forget the past are doomed to relive it. I remember the last tech bust well enough. Guys heavy into it lost a huge chunk of their retirement funds. Meanwhile boring-as-corn-flakes balanced portfolios kept the rest of us from disaster.
The .com bubble was a different animal. Investors were pumping money into anything internet related, regardless of the viability of the company. Now it’s different. Technology is deeply ingrained in our society. Clear winners have established track records. I agree with Bruce, tech should be a strong investment for the foreseeable future, but I wouldn’t put all your eggs in just that basket.
GG, I don't mean to say that you should have _nothing_ in that sector, but it should be *part of* a balanced portfolio.
My advice to a young person who has little interest (or expertise) in the subject would be to put money every week or month into a "target date fund." (TDF) Set up automatic transfers from your checking account to a brokerage like Fidelity, etc. and just forget it.
TDF's are adjusted for decreasing risk/asset protection as you get closer to your retirement date. If you plan to retire in 2060 or thereabouts, your portfolio would be managed rather aggressive. Over the years, it would be progressively less so.
Some years ago I had multiple funds with one firm and switched them all to a 2020 fund based on my expected retirement date. I still make modest gains in it, but overall it is less volatile than the market at large.
Here’s the bulk of my portfolio. As Dana and others have mentioned, I prefer a diversified portfolio with exposure to lots of different sectors. I’ve minimized my exposure to energy as my job is tied to that industry, and I’ve increased my tech exposure as a bit of a hedge to my job.
I have roughly equal weight positions across the various funds except the debt index (only about 1% of my money is there). The BrokerageLink account details are broken out separately (that’s an account that lets me buy individual stocks as part of my 401k and where I’ve taken my tech exposure).
Yup and that’s why this market is rediculous what BEG is holding are the only stocks being bought. It’s almost like the finance companies like Blackrock are funding the titans. Nice bag BEG cudos.
I wouldn't say they're the only stocks being bought. Pretty much every sector - not just tech - is giving returns. And again, I have my reasons for buying them. They make up about 10% of my portfolio, with those index funds making up the rest. I just wanted more exposure as the electrification and digitalization of the world is a bit of hedge to the hydrocarbon business I rely on for my salary. Nvidia I bought in late 2021 (even before the Pelosis!) due to the massive chip shortage, the growing demand, and the future prospects of AI. I tend to buy and hold and don't trade at all on technicals - just fundamentals and what I feel like our macro trends in sectors.
All that said, you can see my overall performance is basically about what the S&P 500 would have returned since I started investing in this portfolio in 2002 (not surprising given the diversification of my portfolio). But I'd certainly be happy with 8-9% return over the next 20 years as well.
If I was a young guy, I would stay away from those target dated funds, namely, because of their bond exposure. Take a look at what bond funds have done in the last 5 to 10 years- not good. The claim is for “ Diversification” ….but Why would someone want a negative return? If your advisor had you in any bond funds the last 5 years, the next words out of your mouth should be, “Your Fired-duh”
I think its important to understand risk. If you are young with a long time frame…the time frame itself spreads your risk. Thus, being more concentrated in a tech ETF like Vanguards VGT has you in hundreds of top tech companies selected by the experts ( and they are always adjusting these) . Its 10 yr performance is just shy of 20% per year- not too shabby.
ETF’s are big baskets of stocks…and then having one in the right sector moving forward is key. The only risk is if you have a short time frame. An ETF is better than a mutual fund as you don’t pay taxes on your gains every year like in the MF’s. (Unless the Democrats get their way and start taxing uncaptured gains)
Tech sector; the only guarantee in this world is that Software, chips and tech will be even more a part of our lives moving forward- that actually lessens risk if you have a long timeframe.
Bondfunds are not the same as bonds themselves. Plus, they are highly tied to government policy and the Fed Reserve- gag me with a spoon.
Sure there are times for bonds or bond backed money funds- I have money in a Schwab treasury based ST money market right now- SNSXX paying about 5% I can pop in and out of in one day.
Good deal on the 2021 Nvidia BEG honestly I was too busy with crypto and only had a couple stocks at that time and missed out on a few good ones. While the top S&P 500 stocks are good I always went alittle riskier for bigger returns. I sold SoundHound for a 150% profit but am kicking myself for not selling it earlier I didn’t think it was going to drop that much so quick.
Tuesday May 28 is of special interest for retail traders. Settlement date goes to 1 day only. No implications for investors (buy and holders) .... major new advantage for retail traders. I look forward to it.
"Blue, Do you think this China run is sustainable?"
Bruce.....No clue really, as you know I'm a mometum trader. I've dabbled in China twice in last couple months, checking my records. Got minor gains, +5% and +8% before getting stopped out. Neither held even 10 days. I keep an eye on it but too much good US stuff right now IMO. China may take off at some point, right now pretty much chop is all for my system.
My money is largely invested in U.S. companies right now. China’s economy has some glaring fundamental issues and the central government can only prop up its domestic industry so much. With increasing US tariffs likely to impact revenues in key sectors, China is not a place I would be investing in at present.
And here is what a joke this market is. By joke I mean they give the illusion that everything is fine with the economy. You can’t read this article without a subscription but the title says it all.
I think everyone knows- the stock market is not the economy.
NVDA is business 101, find a need and fill it. Do you really think they will still have 80% market share of the high end chips in another 5 years?
There is investing...then there is earning money. The short term guys are earning a living- not investing.
The question I always try to ask is where will we be in the future. One thing that has proven to be a winner and I think will be in the future; Tech. It's becoming more and more a part of our lives. A good tech ETF like VGT holding hundreds of tech companies is going to do well over a long time frame.
Risk is another question, but tech has become more insulated to the wild swings- more of a bellwether.....and if you have a long time frame- that mitigates the risk of a market investments including tech.
IMO the stock market and the economy are related to a degree, perhaps the market is 6 months ahead of economy? Somewhat? But you can't use one to analyze the other... they are not the same.
And the stock market is totally uncaring.... it doesn't care if you win or if you lose.
Yup all is well in the economy with low unemployment for ole Joes election. Too bad college graduates don’t seem to think so. Plenty of internships out there though.
CT comment, “if someone offered me guaranteed 12% annual return for next 20 years, i'd take that deal in a heartbeat.“
And if you think you are going to get a Guaranteed return of 12% in a 5% market….I’m sure there is some swampland in Florida with your name on it.
IME, I’ve seen a few of those “ guaranteed return “ deals go belly up over my decades of investing. The guarantee is only as good as the 1) overall market returns, and 2) the outfit selling it.
Realize that outfits selling those Annuity type investments get a huge commission up front….that alone kills your potential return and they typically lock you in so they can recover the commission.
Then consider; what are they investing in that they can guarantee you a higher return than the general market over the long haul plus make a profit?
The answer of course is something risky.
I wouldn’t even consider an annuity unless it was from a solid low commission outfit like Vanguard…but you won’t get anything close to a guaranteed 12%.
Your risk in the market is lowered drastically if you have a long term timeline and are spread out in something like 3-6 different ETFs. Then just dollar cost avg into them over the years.
BeenDare - I wasn't saying anyone would actually offer it. I'm saying if it was offered theoretically I would take it. That's all. I don't pay any commissions, I do my own investing and never stop buying.
JMO.... if I decided to become long term investor I'd simply buy SPY and QQQ and let it run. (I would likely buy and sell off the 200 day sma though) Meanwhile long as I'm performing better than them I'll continue trading, which I enjoy.
Off memory... pretty sure QQQ has average annual return over 14% for last 20 years . And SPY is close to +10%. I trade but as I've said if I switched to long term buy and hold I'd blend these two and call it good.. QQQ has more volatility than SPY but better average return.
bluedog, I know a 75 year old guy who has a legit over 100% gain on his entire portfolio just this year!! He's just an average Joe with an above average desire to master his trading hobby. His system is beautifully simple, anyone can do it, if they put their mind to it. But it's not for the faint of heart. I can put you in touch with him, if you wish. He loves sharing his knowledge.
Thanks GG... I'll pass though. At 77 I'm kinda risk averse I reckon. Wouldn't go sharing wild ideas like that with too many people. Sure it takes discipline most lack... really doubt "anyone can do it".. expect your friend would agree.
No problem... he's doing a helluva job though. Wonder if he's got staying power? Let me know in awhile.. wonder how he did last year? Just idly curious.
I think he was up 50-something percent last year, but he was still perfecting his system. He seems to have it dialed in now, but he always strives to do better.
Grey Ghost - Some claim they have systems and go to Vegas. A few do really well. They are more than willing to share how awesome their system worked over what is usually a short window. As time goes by, fewer and fewer remain ahead when counting from Day 1.
If you bump into a guy with a big wad of winnings in his pocket then you can assume he is on to something other than if 1000 people flip a coin 10 times that a few will get 10 heads in a row. Have those who flipped the coin with 10 consecutive heads do 10 more flips and likely zero will have achieved wheat would then be 20 heads in a row.
Is the guy you know very skilled or merely his hunches resulted in several heads out of 10? I have my hunch after investing for over 50 years in stocks and tracking my results. My best years were often offset by years which lagged the overall market. I am mostly in the "buy the whole U.S. market" with a sliver of bond holdings.
I traded heavily from February 2020 when the stock market pulled back until I headed into the wilderness for a few weeks in early October 2020 so stayed 100% invested while off the grid. I was not playing hunches about companies. I sold 100% of stocks and bonds by the third week of February. Bought back three weeks later then sold 100% a week later then repeated looking to sell if market went up 7% then waiting until feel no less than 5% from when I sold.
I was playing the over-reaction of non-sophisticated holders of workplace 401Ks that would see headlines about market pullbacks or when they opened their quarterly 401K recap. I did very well. The markets often moved more than 1% more than one day per week. That is highly unusual. I think the longest I stayed 100% in the market or out of the market was never more than 7 weeks and sometimes was a matter of days.
I did not kid myself though that I suddenly was clairvoyant. I just knew when the dry cleaner suddenly was talking about "the market" and maybe should sell it all...that this was irrational behavior spreading like wildfire.
I also was sitting on 6 years of college funding all in cash for my children when 9/11 happened. Similar panic overheard at the grocery store and in the office re pulling out of the market once Wall Street re-opened for business. I bought index funds with 100% of the cash I had when the market hit 10% off the pre-9/11 close. Held about 2 months and sold which was painful as was all short-term gain and we had significant marginal tax rates Fed+State.
I gambled twice in my lifetime, 9/11 and "Chinese Flu emergence" but am a boring buy and hold guy. I did not gamble with options as was not greedy and I only bought items I was willing to hold for years if the market crashed further when I was 100% invested.
Thanks for your insight, treewalker. The guy I know doesn’t trade options. Just normal stocks and ETFs. He’s just figured out how to trade the right ones, at the right times.
GG the only “right” stocks to trade are the mag 7 everything else is doing crap. Most rediculous market I’ve ever seen. Every time I watch an analyst speaking they all talk about the same companies and that’s it. Probably the biggest Ponzi scheme going at the moment with 9 companies holding like 35% of the entire S&P.
And why does it matter that the largest companies in the country make up a large percentage of the index? How is a market cap weighted index built to mirror the broader US equity market a “Ponzi scheme”?
GG the only “right” stocks to trade are the mag 7 everything else is doing crap. Most rediculous market I’ve ever seen. Every time I watch an analyst speaking they all talk about the same companies and that’s it. Probably the biggest Ponzi scheme going at the moment with 9 companies holding like 35% of the entire S&P.
Bluedog I try and trade stocks that have good room for upside and I’m not paying hundreds of dollars for just one share of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, etc. Amazing the markets keep going up but yet most other companies keep going down despite already being down 60-80% from the high in 2021. If it weren’t for the mag 7 it would look like the damn markets were all crashing. I do know one thing when the shit hits the fan it’s gonna fall like a deck of cards. All the Nvidia holders better pray China doesn’t invade Taiwan. If so then that’s when I’m buying and not when it’s up 600 thousand percent. I don’t take risks for a couple hundred bucks.
“but yet most other companies keep going down despite already being down 60-80% from the high in 2021”
You keep saying this but it’s demonstrably false, spike. Either you know better and are flat out lying or you refuse to actually look into the data - neither of which is a good look.
“If it weren’t for the mag 7 it would look like the damn markets were all crashing”
Its worth considering the tax implications of stock trading….
Depending on your tax bracket, a short term $10,000 gain is really a lot less.
Long term -over one year hold- tax rate is less and then you add on state tax. Cap Gain tax is 15% on income from appx. $44k to $518k, then 20% over that with a 3.8% kicker on higher income.
Plus a short term sale is added directly to your income and this could put you in a higher tax bracket.
If I had a do over or was a young guy now, I would probably just Dollar Cost avg into ETFs with a high % in tech, then those investments are compounding faster as they are tax deferred.
Bruce makes a good point. My situation is about 35% in a regular cash account (short term gain taxes), 35% in traditional IRA (tax deferred but RMD hit) and 30% in wife's ROTH (pure heaven) oh to do it over again and have converted my IRA to ROTH when it was feasible.. dang it
I trade with a fairly small percentage of our savings in a taxable account, the rest is in tax-deferred and diversified "hold and hope" IRAs overweight with tech.
Hey, I've fallen prey to the trading game. It's exciting and there is a part of me that thinks I am smarter than the markets [news flash; I'm not!]
There are some guys like bluedog that have developed trading systems that work. My guess is he would agree, this is more like a job earning money than investing.
I've done well over the years trading....but if I backtest these trades, overall , I probably would have been better just buying and hanging on longer.
I look at it this way; I want my $$$ in Stocks and Sectors that will perform well- or heck, outperform- over the long haul. The tech ETF's are averaging 17-20% a year for the last 10 years. Is tech becoming more and more of our lives- Yep, and it will for a long time. I think the tech sector will be a lot less volatile than it was 20-30 years ago. Stuff like the Nasdaq index, QTEC or the more concentrated VGT should outperform for decades. _____
I did sell a bunch of stuff in my one account at the end of May to buy another home and I took Roy Scheiders advice in Jaws on needing a bigger boat. grin...though my wife just rolls her eyes. What good is all of that $$ if you cannot spend it?
"Whole market taking a dump but Nvidia rocks on gotta love it."
Market is far from "taking a dump", but I am loving Nvidia. 25% of my trading portfolio is in it, and many of my IRA investments have holdings in them. So yeah, rock on NVDA!!!
I enjoy trading immensely, it's something a decrepid old fart can do.. at least until brain starts misfiring and that will be quickly obvious.
Clearly it's not for many people. Fact is I've read from reliable accounts that 98% of people that try trading surrender within 3 years. And 80% of these people lose their whole wad.
But.... it's a job and takes work and everything else involved in holding any job. Cannot be done casually.
Add: No way am I smarter than the Market either. It's impartial and doesn't care at all if I win or lose. I'm bad at predicting and don't even attempt it regarding Market ... I have studied market and trading over 20 years.. Read countless books, done countless charts. Sorted wheat from a lot of chaff . done a lot of thinking LOL
I've been full time trading.. this is my 3rd year. Any year I don't handily beat QQQ and SPY is when I quit trading.
Bluedog you say you don’t buy stocks under $5 but for shits and giggles check out Nerdy Inc. Just bought some today going to be my future SoundHound play!
I would love for my Edward Jones 401k thru work to be in the SPY & QQQ. I have tried getting it there but I am not allowed. They have a certain criteria I have to meet. I have to have 20% of my account in international funds. I have yet to find one that isn’t flat out garbage. And I am not allowed anymore than 20% of any one holding. I would tickled with half in SPY and half in QQQ.
KsRancher, I don't own any, but I've read India has been a decent international investment for quite some time. Not advice, just throwing it out there....
Just bagged some PayPal she’s gonna launch new CEO that will be starting advertising from existing customers, fired lazy people, and also came out with a stable coin. We shall see.
Bluedog, the CEO of Nerdy just bought 500,000 shares for almost 1 million dollars. I’m guessing he knows something and for a few hundred bucks why the hell not.
spike... none of my business but the way you trade is completely opposite to my technique such as it is. Honest question, Are you doing well trading? Last year's performance? This year so far? The bottom line doesn't lie.
I hope you are doing well, your style is just so different from mine. Know there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Thanks Matt. (INDA) Has the best returns of anything I have found while looking at international stocks. Seems crazy that living in the USA I am required to have 20% of my portfolio in international stocks. Which I haven't found one that comes close to the SPY and QQQ.
I do feel there is some truth to what spike is saying that there is a undue concentration of gains with just a few mega cap stocks in the market in recent times. I think this has been amplified by the popularity of buy and hold investing in Index funds. As more and more people buy SPY and QQQ more stock of the mega caps is bought by the funds. This results in accelerated rise in price of the major big stocks that have a large position in the funds.... maybe
JMO.... a traders best play is to accept this phenomina and use it to his advantage rather than rebelling against it. Anything else is counter productive.
“I do feel there is some truth to what spike is saying that there is an undue concentration of gains with just a few mega cap stocks in the market in recent times.”
A quick look at P/E ratios would tell the story. My guess is that actual earnings are increasingly being concentrated amongst the bigger companies (FAANG) and that is where the gains are being concentrated as a result. As with most things in life, the obvious thing is usually the reason rather than a grand conspiracy.
Another India fan as a good long term sector that should outperform, I mentioned it a year ago. I Have my kids in FLIN and INCO.
Ks Rancher, Thats crazy the Edward Jones doesn't give you those options. SPY, the QQQ and tech ETF's are solid sectors going forward. Thats just old line thinking there and there fact they don't recognize that is going to hurt your performance. Thats as bad as the 60/40 portfolio model stocks/ bonds the financial planners touted as gospel.
I said it on Rokslide, most financial planners are sales guys. They plug you into the company portfolio models and thats it- collecting their fees for doing nothing you cannot do on your own with 3-5 ETF's.
It's all about risk versus reward. A financial planner that had you in bonds for the last 3 years should be FIRED. Sector wise, bonds are good for short term 5% but a bad idea for long term until we can lock in higher rates.
Hey, I'm just a guy right- so do your own research...but I look at it this way; What sectors are going to do well and become more and more of our lives? Or asked another way, How many semiconductor chips were in your truck 10 years ago versus now? Heck, I never go to the bank anymore, I can deposit checks by snapping a photo- a timesaver. Point is, Tech is going to continue to be more and more of our lives and I want an investment account that lets me invest in those ETF's.
Traders and hold and hope investors should always pay attention to the hot sectors, or individual stocks. It literally takes a few minutes to move money around at no cost these days. You can do it at your convenience…daily, monthly, annually…whatever.
I didn't think I was suggesting a grand conspiracy Matt. I was suggesting a possible partial reason for the amplified concentration in a few mega caps.
But actually I don't know and I don't care.. just musing. I bow to your market expertise of course. I'm no Market expert.
Beendare. I can buy the SPY and QQQ. But I can't more than 20% or 25% in any 1 fund. And I have to be in large, mid and small caps. And have at least 20% in international. I think I am going to go 20% in these five. SPY, QQQ, VOO, INDA and IWP. What do you guys think? They don't mind that VOO and SPY are the same. But can't have 20% in any one fund/stock
Just to name a couple. Edward Jones has me in SCZ and IEMG. Look those up and you will cry. 10% of my portfolio has been in those two for several years.
Unfortunately I can't until I hit I think 59.5yrs old or take a 25% penalty. Since I have had this 401k the SPY has averaged a 50% better yearly return than my Edward Jones account. I didn't know the least little bit about the stock market when my boss start it. He does a 3% match. I put in 11% for years until I realized that I could take that extra 8% and put in the SPY and get way better returns without them taking their cut (I think it's 1.25% of the account balance per year)
“ I didn't think I was suggesting a grand consiracy Matt. I was suggesting a possible partial reason for the amplified concentration in a few mega caps. But actually I don't know and I don't care.. just musing. I bow to your market expertise of course. I'm no Market expert.”
I am no expert either and frankly haven’t looked at the P/E’s of the mega-cap tech companies versus smaller competitors in the same verticals. But the market tends to be pretty rational over the longer terms so I don’t put much credence in the notion that the mega-caps are disproportionately making gains for reasons unrelated to future performance. When companies get over-valued portfolio positions tend to geared down and when sector competitors are undervalued that presents a buying opportunity.
Rusty, if you can double dip on funds tracking the same index like SPY and VOO look at QQQM if you want to up your Nasdaq piece of the pie. Essentially the exact same as QQQ, and cheaper to hold.
You guys do realize that the S&P and Nasdaq (Spy and QQQ) have the same damn top ten companies right? Like I said without them the market wouldn’t even be moving. Buy some Mag7 and all of a sudden everyone is a pro trader. Bluedog like I said months ago I’m down because I go for more risky trades as I want to get a higher percentage. Now if I had Buffet money to play with then obviously I’d probably just buy ETFs and call it a day. I have my 401k for that type of play.
Actually not down much as I sold SoundHound for a 150ish percent profit. I most likely will lose the Redfin by July bet lol. Luckily I got that one cheap.
Thanks for response Matt. We all have diffeent styles. I trade in shorter time frames, typically a position is held 3 weeks maybe, varies beteen 2 days and 2 months . I trade etfs more than stocks., currently hold 4 etfs and 2 stocks. I don't rely on PE ratio. Price and volume are critical for me.
I'm fascinated by the market and the different methods used in trading and investing. There are many different ways to be successful IMO. ... A person should just find what fits for them and they're comfortable with .
"I’m down because I go for more risky trades as I want to get a higher percentage."
JMO.... risky trades and higher % gains are not compatible.
As I've stated I would not trade if I found myself down. I find losing intolerable, just my personality maybe.
I currntly have a strict 10% rule.... any month I find myself -10% I shut down until the next month. This was triggered one time in last 18 months, September 2023. I lost -3% in August 2023 also.
I consider these experiences lessons, tuition fees. Hopefully I learned from them
Found this article (a few months old) characterizing the performance of the Mag7 vs the broader market interesting. Significant number of stocks trading at 52-week highs, cyclicals (industrials, finance, materials, etc) doing well, small caps lagging but also a sector most exposed to interest rates (and even then, the Russell 2000 is down 12% from the November 2001 highs, not 60-80% like spike says most stocks are).
"You guys do realize that the S&P and Nasdaq (Spy and QQQ) have the same damn top ten companies right?"
No they don't.
" Like I said without them the market wouldn’t even be moving."
Wrong, again. The Mag 7 influence has been waning. Now it's down to the Mag 3-4. They accounted for 37% of the S&P gains in Q1. Without them, the S&P would have risen 6.4% in Q1 instead of 10.2% 118 companies hit 52-week highs in Q1. That's a 3 year record. That number will probably go up in Q2.
IMO too often people mistake the market as being a sentient organism. In truth it has no feelings or thoughts,indifferent.. totally doesn't care if you win or lose. It just exists. What a person does is entirely up to themselves
" Companies water down share value by issuing new shares and their stock price goes UP."
Not necessarily. Nvidia's recent split had very little influence on the performance of its stock. It continued to climb at basically the same pre-split pace. The big fish who dictate the stock price don't care if it's $1000/share or $100/share. They still invest the same amount of money.
Not a ton of publicly traded companies issuing new shares, Don. A stock split doesn’t result in any new shares being issued if that’s what you were referencing.
A stock split is pretty simple. If you have 1 share worth $1000 before a 10:1 split, you have 10 shares worth $1000 after the split. It allows smaller investors to participate in highly valued companies, but that's about all.
You guys are delusional if you don’t think the titans are carrying the market. Look at Meta, Nvidia, etc. The only lagging companies in the Mag 7 is Tesla and Apple until now. For some crazy reason Apple just cranked to the top even though they had shit for meaningful gains as the new CEO sucks. I swear the Fed is taking all its printed fiat paper and putting into the market to make sure it doesn’t crash. If you guys watched the last bullshit meeting Pow pow said everything is fine and dandy in the economy even though people can’t afford shit. He said a rate cut for this year pretty much even though the economy is great. If great why the rate cut!!!!? He didn’t really have a good answer to that question. It’s all bullshit guys stop with the roses and unicorns.
Ks, The small cap sector outperformed many years ago...but sadly it's been a long time since it has done much of anything. I would trade out of that.
It makes sense that big companies and big tech outperform. There is something to be said for critical mass and having a long term track record. Once a company like Apple or Adobe gets a customer- it's hard to lose them. These small companies have an uphill battle.
The emerging markets you own is a similar issue- fits and starts.
Let's face it, the system is rigged in favor of very large corporations- they have the capital, the knowledge (mostly) and the horsepower to keep the ball rolling.
Now, we cannot ignore the political risk in the world right now, its as high as I've ever seen it- and that could have a big effect ST on the markets.
Also the top 3 Dow companies are Mag 7 and how awesome that Nvidia will now be included in the Dow due to the stock split. Can’t make this smoke and mirrors up.
“You guys are delusional if you don’t think the titans are carrying the market”
No one is arguing they don’t have a significant impact on the market. What I do take exception to is that the rest of the market is down - 60-80% from 2021 highs according to you. That is flat out false.
And no, the top 10 companies in the S&P and the Nasdaq are not the same.
spike, seems we have different goals regarding stock market. Mine is solely to make money. I care little about anything I can't control. I have no desire to prove I'm right... I know I'm often going to be wrong.
BEG are you serious? What are the top 3 companies in each? Excuse me for not being exact but you get the point. Ever notice how Friday is when stocks usually tumble? Anyone know why? It’s because the big dogs IE Blackrock and Vanguard control your 401 contributions. Nice to be able to sell their stocks for gains meanwhile buying them with your money. It’s all a scam they dictate the market and are able to just play with your money. They make 100% and you make 11% wake up
“You guys do realize that the S&P and Nasdaq (Spy and QQQ) have the same damn top ten companies right?”
“GG please post up the top ten companies in the S&P”
“BEG are you serious? What are the top 3 companies in each? Excuse me for not being exact”
You said the top 10 companies in each were the same. Your words. Don’t make exact statements, ask people to fact check you, then attempt to move the goal posts when you’re shown to be wrong.
This is just a microcosm of how you post - putting out complete falsehoods that are easily proved false and then acting like you meant to say something else. Like your notion that the majority of stocks are down 60-80% since 2021 - I’m sure you’ll come back and say something like “oh, they're only down 6-8%…but they’re still down” (which I doubt is true either). It’s your conspiracy theory mentality shining through, spike.
spike... if you're so certain the stock market is a rigged game why are you even in it? Why do you waste time worrying about it? The only valid reason to be in stock market is to make financial gains.. that's it period. Stop fretting about things you can't control is my advice.
This is probably the most interesting non-bowhunting thread (at least for me ) that I have read on here. Most of the posters are obviously extremely knowledgeable on the subjects of investing and trading. Thanks for sharing your views and expertise while keeping things civil, Badbull.
BEG the top 3 make up over 25% of the 100 caps. We are talking Trillions in market cap for just a handful of the companies. You guys actually think that the economy is great due to the stock market being up due to a couple of companies? Just admit when you’re wrong already stop being stubborn libs! I personally know that most companies are down because I research them every single day and have money in many of them and they go down while the top 5 go up daily. It’s all bullshit. But you keep thinking that everything is rosy while the Trillion dollar cap companies just keep going up trillions.
Bluedog yes it’s a risk because I’m looking for low cap stocks that have the potential to have great gains and I accept that risk and no it’s not wrong I could follow the herd and buy the only stocks that are actually doing anything due to manipulation but nope I’m good. When we have a market crash when the rates are cut then I will buy those.
Oh and BEG 2 out of the 10 stocks were different are you really going to go there? I know GG ain’t going to because that would be down right idiotic. Just admit when you’re wrong for once I’ve done it before it’s not that bad.
It appears we have hold and hope investors, traders, and gamblers (Spike) on this thread. Since they are 3 totally different methods, with different goals and objectives, there isn't any one-size-fits-all answers. But it is interesting to read the various opinions and perspectives, especially Spike's. ;-)
GG, I've known some successful gamblers..even was one for a few years back in the dog track days in Tucson ( although I never quit my day job, it did finance my hunting, etc.) ...a good gambler understands risk, probability and most of all money management. Spike is not a successful gambler. Not close, almost like he wants to lose.
No offense intended at spike, it depresses me a little
bluedog, I have no doubt you were a successful gambler, but I doubt you were betting on 50:1 long shots every night. You probably had a system that improved you odds, like betting on the dog that takes a big dump before loading into the gate. ;-)
GG, LOL... afraid that's not a very good edge to wager on. I see dog tracks have went the way of the dodo bird, they're gone.
I have done some horses too. And a little sports betting. Poker in my youth in my home town and a bit in the army come to think of it. It all comes down to risk,probability and money management IMO Easiest edge in poker IMO is drop if you got nothin on the deal, boring and few do it cuz it's kinda boring. But I find losing boring too Ah but we're digressing from topic.
Not total digressing perhaps... ;) "drop if you got nothin on the deal" is kinda same thing as running a tight % stop on a trade. If you're wrong you're out with minimal loss.
Dawg, I have buddy who is big on horse racing. He once told me to “never bet against the #6 horse.” He bet on the second place finisher at the Belmont last weekend. I had to remind him of his mantra when #6 horse won. LOL
“”BEG the top 3 make up over 25% of the 100 caps. We are talking Trillions in market cap for just a handful of the companies.”
And?? It’s almost like you don’t even know what a market cap represents.
“You guys actually think that the economy is great due to the stock market being up due to a couple of companies?”
Again, you keep saying this. It’s not just a couple companies. It’s flat out false, spike. Why do you keep lying?
“I personally know that most companies are down because I research them every single day and have money in many of them and they go down while the top 5 go up daily”
You have money in “many of them?” You’ve come on and say that you only put your money in long shots and that you only have an investments in a few stocks.
It’s no wonder you’re detached from reality based on your approach to the markets. I’m with bluedog…it’s sad that you think they somehow represent the broader market.
spike finally lost me with this comment.. "Just admit when you’re wrong already stop being stubborn libs! " .. as if stock market acumen has anything to do with political leaning. Completely jumped the shark.
Spike, many of those Trillion dollar companies have relatively low PE ratios, massive cash piles to weather storms and interest rate changes, while also bringing in mega billions per quarter.
Using "stops" sounds like a wise move to me especially in your larger positions. Over 20 years ago I lost my whole position overnight (5k dollars) in Enron. Any of you guys ever had similar bad investments/trades? Maybe sold prematurely?
badbull, I use stops. Only thing... they won't protect you from a gap down over night. You'll get sold out at open price , not your stop price you had set. I trade a lot though and have determined gap downs hurting me are counterbalanced by gap ups helping me. Caution: Not trading advice in any fashion , just relating something I do.
Selling prematurely... sometimes seems a sure way for me to have something move up is to sell it. LOL Happens a lot to me.
There is one person on here that is maybe as good at fundamental analysis on the market as anyone I know. That'd be Beendare. He's extremely good and has great insights, very worthwhile listening to. (GG and BEG are pretty good also imo.)
I'm technical analysis style but still pay attention to the fundamentals, why not? Any edge helps
Enjoying this thread, it's staying mostly apolitical just as the market is. Refreshing change from the norm
Does anyone have experience with ROTH conversions? I understand the pro and cons of them, but I'm struggling with whether or not the initial tax hit would justify one. As I understand it, the conversion is considered income in the year you do one, so they are taxed at your normal tax rate, or they can even bump you up into a higher tax bracket depending on the amount of the conversion. That could potentially be a big tax hit.
“Not a ton of publicly traded companies issuing new shares, Don.”
This is true in terms of secondary public offerings, but most PTC’s share count grows over time through the exercise of stock awards by employees. This increase in share count results in dilution of shareholder’s positions. My sense is that the impact to external shareholders is generally nominal. Many PTC’s have stock repurchase programs which they use to manage/offest dilution.
IMO, a Roth Conversion makes sense if you have many years of investing in front of you to make up for the initial tax hit.
But keep in mind, Roth's have income restrictions....check those before attempting a conversion. I can't remember the amounts exactly but it's fairly low, something like over $150k for individual and about $225k for married folks and they won't let you do it. That cuts an awful lot of married couple that are both working out.
Thanks, Bruce. I agree, ROTH conversions seem to be better suited for folks who have time to allow them to grow and recoup the tax hit. It doesn't seem to appealing for a retired couple, like me and my wife.
Edit: I just learned there are income restriction for *contributions* to ROTHs ($161K single, $240K married). But there are no limitations on conversions. You *could* convert your entire IRA to a ROTH, but the tax consequences usually don't justify it, especially for older folks.
bluedog, I surely agree with your post regarding Beendare and other listed posters as well as your other comments. I would also include you in the list of worthwhile posters, Badbull.
Thanks badbull... I only do fundamentals because I like to know as much as I can though. Guys I mentioned have much deeper interest in fundamentals than I, find technical analysis to be the tool I rely on. I don't do complicated charting either. Simple price line I guess biggest thing for me. And volume big factor.
My favorite quote isn't even about the market or trading. But I value it...It was said by Steve Jobs.. "That's been one of my mantras — focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains."
There is a broader list. Edward Jones is controlling the list. But everything on their list is absolutely garbage for returns. When I questioned them about why not INDA I was told not enough of it was large and mid caps and it was too aggressive. She told me that they want returns somewhere between 6.5%-8.5% returns before their fees are taken out. So after fees will be in the low 7% at best. Its getting really frustrating
That's wild...I'd say it's my money and I determine the risk that I take, not you. I'm really lucky in that my 401k is through Fidelity and I have complete freedom to invest in any mutual fund, ETF, or stock that I want in my 401k. My wife does have an IRA that Edward Jones manages and they are definitely much more "involved" - not sure if there are specific restrictions on what she can trade, but I know she doesn't have the freedom to go in and make changes if she wants and everything has to go through them. I don't worry about it as it's a small percentage of our overall retirement and she doesn't really have the desire to make the choices herself. I would feel differently if that was my main retirement account.
Not sure how much say you'll have in it, but I would still diversify as much as possible. I come back to the chart above and the reality that it's hard to pick winners by asset class year-in-year out. I'd probably go something like 30% in large cap US stocks (like 15% in a S&P fund and 15% in a Nasdaq fund), 20% in mid cap US stocks, 20% in large cap international, 15% in emerging markets, 15% in small cap US (like a Russell 2000 fund).
That’s ridiculous Rusty. Being self employed I’m a little jealous at times of folks who get a company match. However hearing stories like your’s, a couple buddies in similar positions, and dealing with my wife’s accounts the more it makes me think most employer offered plans are a big ass scam. My wife can choose from about 25 total funds, at least half of which are target-date crap with stupid high management fees. Half of what’s left is geared more towards retirees or those close to it. And then there are like three or four actual index funds. So she’s pretty long on the S&P, haha! Even those though, they gouge you for about 15-25x the management fees vs simply buying popular index ETF’s. Seems like a giant racket organized to skim off the top of millions of folks who don’t know any better. Anyway, hope you get your situation sorted out.
I am not a financial expert...but I have learned the hard way to invest myself after a couple of really bad financial planners that make KS's Edward Jones look like geniuses.
It's not all that difficult...just takes understanding all of the options and using compounding to your advantage. Most of my net worth is in 3 business's and Real estate. I've done really well...but if I had a do over the strategy I outline with 3-6 ETF's for your after tax investing is hard to beat for easy with a high return. (Edit) RE does take some work and ongoing maintenance and its not liquid. You can outperform the tech indexes if you buy low in the right sectors.
I had the limits off on the roth....I had looked into one years ago and it wasn't going to work for me so I didn't really pay attention. It might for some of the young guys without really good 401k options....in other words, lowering your taxable income while investing is a top strategy.
A young guy now should weigh the tax consequences of 401K, Roth or just buying an ETF with after tax money then paying cap gains tax when taking it out versus other options is a consideration. A 401k with matching funds is a no brainer to plug in as much as you can.
The other thing that gets lost in all of this is everyone should be a business owner- any side gig works. If you do you can lower your after tax expenses and increase your investment contributions. I think a ROTH is restricted to something like $7000,BUT if you own your own business the contribution limits on some of the self directed retirement accounts you can set up are huge.
Pretty sure MSCI stands for Morgan Stanley Capital Indices and you'll see that on a number of different benchmark indices. Is there a specific indices you're looking at?
KSRancher, I think BEG is correct. That is just an index developed by MSCI. You would have to find a fund that tracks that index. There is a company that trades under the MSCI ticker, but it's not a winner.
That is MSCI's ACWI IMI fund. Basically that's a "world" economy index, incorporating developed and emerging markets and a healthy percentage of US stocks (no idea what ACWI actually stands for but might be All Countries World Index if I had to guess). If you want less international exposure and that qualifies as international, it may not be a bad fund as 63% of that index are actually US companies. Top holdings are basically the top stocks in the S&P plus Taiwan semiconductor.
Regarding acceptable returns, that all is going to be based on your risk tolerance. While the inclusion of emerging markets increases risk level here, it's a small percentage of the index. This is well diversified with a healthy dose of US equities (small, mid, and large cap).
OK, I just found that fund. It trades under the ticker ACWI. It's an Ishares fund. It's up 10.4% YTD. Not too bad. Hope it qualifies for your international, KSRancher.
I think you need a tool that analyzes the market in real-time and can execute trades based on your criteria, making it easier to manage your investments without constant oversight.
For example, if you're handling multiple accounts like retirement funds and college savings, moontrader.com can help ensure that your strategies are consistently applied across all of them. It can also adapt to market changes quickly, potentially improving the accuracy and timing of your trades.
Makes me chuckle when I hear the question about being better off now or 4 years ago. I'm definitely better off now, just older. The market is definitely on fire!!
The top 10% of wealthiest Americans own over 90% of the stock market, so stealthycat isn't wrong. That said, over 60% of all Americans own stocks. With free brokerage accounts and trading, and no minimum balance requirements, virtually anyone can own stocks these days.
Yes the problem is us servants can only put in X amount of dollars and have to wait quite a long time for our stocks to appreciate to a significant value where as the rich can cash out on a 30% return with a good amount of money. For most of us plebs a 30% return minus taxes will give us a couple tanks of gas. And that is the difference. With that being said my small/medium cap stocks are starting to take off finally and I am up in probably 90% of them. Hell even my Redfin is finally green, just gotta hold and wait. S&P in my opinion is over run and will be iffy in the near future. I’m setting aside money for the correction should it be decent.
That's an interesting stat about the 10% wealthiest owning 90% of the market. It's actually 10% of the wealthiest American households, not individuals.
It's also interesting that your household *only* has to be worth about $2M to be in the top 10%. I assumed it would be much higher.
One more thing to mention and this is not financial advice but everyone is waiting for rates to fall and then happy days and market cranks but the reason for rate dropping is because the economy is stressed which in the past actually was bad for the market. Just saying
"It's also interesting that your household *only* has to be worth about $2M to be in the top 10%. I assumed it would be much higher."
Midwest, I agree, that is a surprisingly low net worth figure to be in the top 10%. Does that make us one of those "elites" that Spike is always taking about? ;-)
Why yes I do GG because like I posted before the only stocks doing anything were the top S&P and Nasdaq stocks which like I said are the same damn stocks. Now elites are selling and putting money into the stocks that I said weren’t doing shit but once again the Bowsite think tank said I was wrong about. But the trick is lower rates higher stock price in which the elites will dump once all the idiots follow along as lower rates means hurting economy. But maybe I’m wrong hell I’m just a dumb conspiracy theorist. Just out of curiosity how many here actually believe a 401k was created for we the peasants to retire on?
Or did the 401k conveniently get put into the S&P every week automatically running up the stock price in which the managing companies could trade as they wish because they knew the money automatically coming in. On top of that they also got their fees every month for managing your 401k. Amazing how the big dog financial companies like BlackRock and Vanguard make bank even in a shitty economy. Funny how that works.
GG. That isn't at all a low net worth in my opinion for the top 10%. What it tells me is that a lot of people that think they are "average" are actually in the top 10%. I see it everyday in the farming/ranching community. They assume everyone else is like they are financially. And it's just not the case.
It should start to make a lot more sense to people that think wages are booming and inflation isn't bad at all. Most of those people are the ones that think they are average but actually in the top 10%
Spike, the reason your small cap stuff is starting to perform is because Wall Street has the probability of a rate cut in September at 100%. Since smaller companies are more reliant on debt, they benefit the most from rate cuts. That's also why the largest cap companies have outperformed during this period of high interest rates, because they don't need to borrow money. It has nothing to do with a devious plan by the "elites".
BTW, congrats on your Sound Hound pick. That was one that I would have never touched, but who knew Nvidia was going to take them under their wing?
GG yes I did say that about the rate cuts but it will be short lived so I put like 40% money into them anticipating the real drop which may or may not come but either way I’m in the game. And yes I sold Soundhound for a 150% gain although I did not expect it to drop as much as it did so I could have done way better. I just recently bought back at 3.88 a share so not too shabby as they paid off all their debts and might get business from McDonald’s but knowing my luck probably not!
KSRancher, we agree for the most part. As for rancher/farmers, what I see in my area are lot of them are land rich, but cash poor. Consequently, they live a very average lifestyle even though they may be in the top 10% technically speaking. But to Midwest's point, when I think of "wealthy" people, I think of folks whose net worth starts with a B. I suppose it's just a matter of perspective.
I'm curious, though, on 2 different threads, recently, you've referred to yourself as a "servant", "slave", and a "peasant". is that how you truly view yourself?
The 99th percentile of net worth in the U.S. starts at $11.6M, the 98th at $2.6M and the 95th at $1.2M. Being a billionaire puts you in the 99.97th percentile.
Per a recent Schwab survey a net worth of $2.2M is what defines “wealthy”.
It's definitely a philosophical question, bluedog. I know a lot of financially "wealthy" people, who are miserable with their lives. I'm just always amazed by how class envy affects some guys so much. Money doesn't mean happiness by any measure.
Yeah money won't buy happiness, used properly can smooth ragged edges of life I expect . LOL
More philisophical pondering.... how can one have class envy when you don't consider money to be proper measure of a man? I've been accused of class envy by a few while in truth I just considered them to be pompous azzholes. ;)
GG I mean most of us. Sure we all create our wealth and destiny but in reality we pay roughly 60% in taxes and if say I get lucky and make 10k profits in investments their goes 2200-2500 in taxes for something we rolled the dice on. Our 401k gets taken out each week and fees are taken out multiple times per month and when we retire they take 22-30% of it. Let’s face it just like the mob we make money and pay Pauly our entire lives. It is true you can make out with smart moves but your hindered at every turn. For example if I want to invest in a private up and coming company I have to be an accredited invest with a net worth of 1 million per SEC rules. Is that fair to the average Joe?
Spike, my father, who never graduated from high school, told me, " it takes money to make money, but it doesn't make happiness." If you missed opportunities that were there all along, don't blame people who didn't miss them.
I don't share your view on missed opportunities GG.... not everybody gets opportunities ....available to miss or take advantage of.. . Just the way it is.
I'm fine with agreeing to disagree with you, bluedog. It won't change how I feel about you. Actually, you are a prime example of a guy who realized his opportunities, and has capitalized on them...albeit late in life.
Markets are getting slaughtered good thing my 401k in stable fund waiting to buy back in. Glad I don’t trust a thing anyone says as like I said the writing was on the wall. Recession here we come!
I live every day like it is a recession so nothing changes for me. Just keep canning green beans and freezing corn. I will shoot a few deer this fall for meat and time will carry on like it always does.
My local bank has a 17 month CD that is paying 5%. The offer is good till at least the next Fed meeting in September. I already have quite a little bit in 2 CD's that are 12 month terms paying 5%. I think it is time to put some money in the 17 month CD. 5% on your money might look pretty good next year.
My strategy is the same as it was the last 35 years I’ve been investing. Have a diverse portfolio of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, tax free munis, largely invested in the USA, but a small amount international. Review it a few times a year, tweak if there’s strong logic (not emotion) and sleep well at night.
Since I purchase both daily and weekly. When it’s down I just purchased at a cheaper rate. Hopefully in 15 years when I want to retire everything is up.
I have a number of different ETF’s that pay dividends so we will see what that brings in 15 years.
I’m with Spike. I went to stable value fund on Tuesday this week. Made a wise choice. When you have that choice in a 401k I’m not sure why anyone would want to ride it off the ledge and climb back out. To each his own I guess. I’ve always thought of it as staying at the casino until your broke or leave when you made a good percentage.
Well, I didn't panic, but I did sell everything last week. Anyone who follows the markets, and understands things like moving averages, volume, and VIX, could see a major correction was coming. I saw no reason to ride the tide downward, so I cut my losses at about -3% and preserved most of my YTD gains. I'll patiently wait for the signs that indicate the trend has reversed, then ride the tide back up.
Good luck to you hold and hope guys. I'd suggest not looking at your account balances today. It's gonna be ugly.
I honestly thought things would open worse than what they did. Currently out of all the ETF’s I am in, only one is down double digits. The rest are down less than 2.
Gave up trying to predict the markets years ago but always kept notes when I thought i should sell and when I should buy back in. I found out it made very little difference in the long term in the past since it is so hard to time the lows and highs. I have substantial gains I don't want to pay tax on and not have those gains invested in the market. If Harris becomes President then I'll have to rethink my plan.
If and when I feel I've lost a step I'll become a investor..buy and hold. Not yet, still enjoy trading. Great challenge IMO.. Annual gain will tell the bottom line tale
Buy when there is blood in the streets. Even if it’s your own blood.
From an article “Contrarian investors have historically made their best investments during times of market turmoil. In the crash of 1987, the Dow dropped 22% in one day in the U.S. In the 1973-’74 bear market, the market lost 45% in about 22 months. The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, also resulted in a major market drop. The list goes on and on, but those are times when contrarians found their best investments.
The 1973-’74 bear market gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to purchase a stake in the Washington Post Co. , an investment that has subsequently increased by more than 100 times the purchase price–that’s before dividends are included.”
Mint...I know of no one that is any good at predicting the markets...I have a brother in law that "trades" stocks...I'll guarantee he's done no better over the long haul than I have buying value investments. Or any of the rest of the "traders" out there.
Glad you're happy with your results Trying Hard.. Nicely done.
I'm not competing against other investors or traders however so have no opinion on whether I'm doing better than others or not. My competition is only against myself
Tony bear, I've got a 68 Olds 442 convertible with a 455 out of a 68 Toronado. It's not a Hurst Olds but it's exactly how he made them. It's like driving history.
I communicate with a “trader” friend daily. He crushed the market with over 50% gains last year. He’s up over 100% YTD this year. He’s definitely the exception to the rule, but he’s proven it can be done, with brains, instincts, and commitment, kinda like bow hunting.
Hmm LUMN is interesting never heard of it and I research stocks quite often. Added to my watch list and will buy once it drops a bit thanks for the mention!
LUMN is a struggling fiber optics company hoping to cash in on the whole AI buzz, which has lost a little steam lately. They made some great Q2 sales numbers, but that hasn't turned into earnings, yet. Investors tend to overshoot on good sales news, especially on cheap stocks. I may buy a few short term puts on them, tomorrow.
I bought shares of CRMT at $58.50-61.50 last couple of days .... although I might get bit on that. The trend has been $58 to $65 down to $58 is and back up ..... I was invested heavily in it and took a 6% profit a few weeks back .... and I'll do it again. I'll sell when i hits $66 or something .... I don't say trade well , normally don't do what I do and its smart :)
Never good for stocks; The world is currently a much more volatile place with a couple really bad possible conflicts..... for example Iran dumps a nuke on Israel.
Market participants are nervous and starting to question the strength of the Economy and the actual jobs touted by Biden. The employment numbers just don't illustrate what we are seeing with our own eyes. It's much like Buttigeg claiming crime is down which is a bald faced lie. Fact is the majority of jobs created went to Illegals and part time jobs....we could have been in recession for awhile now.
* Cathie Woods ARKK funds have underperformed the Nasdaq index by 30% [WOW!]....yep she is down 24% and QQQ is up 6.6%. Investors have pulled $2.2B from her funds.
"for example Iran dumps a nuke on Israel." I don't worry about that, even though it was only 79 years ago (August 6, 1945) Hiroshima was bombed. The threat of mutual mass destruction has been a good deterrence so far. JMO
I sold out and avoided over half of the loses I would have had by holding and hoping right now. I’ll be back in way before that proves to be a bad decision. I’m not a big time player, I just do what makes sense to me.
"Time in the market ALWAYS beats timing the market."
That may be true, if you are a passive investor who knows nothing about the stock market, but it certainly doesn't apply to everyone. I was a hold and hoper too, while I was working, and my investments served their purpose. Since retiring, I've taken a more active role in managing my investments, and I've done far better. Do you think Warren Buffet cashing out of half of his Apple and Bank America stock just before the big market dump on Monday was just coincidence?
I don't think anyone is arguing that passive hold and hope investing doesn't work. It's actually the best strategy for the vast majority of investors. I take exception to Altitude's "ALWAYS..." comment. There are no absolutes with investing. There are plenty of people who consistently crush the hold and hope strategy every year. Just because Altitude doesn't know any of them doesn't mean they don't exist.
I know plenty of people that play the game. Im related to some
And just like gambling you only hear about the successful transactions.
And they only bounce one or a handful at a time. they don’t cash out entirely. And cash back in.
so occasionally they time it right, cash out a few and don’t lose but sometimes they do not get back in at the perfect time. So it’s all for naught.
but everything else they left in slid so it’s a wash.
To be considered timing the market. Would mean you removed all risk at a potential downturn. And sold everything. Then timed it perfectly to re enter. Every time for 20-40 years.
I stand by my statement that no one has EVER done that. Not even Warren Buffet.
He sees signs that Apple and AI was overblown and reduced in one area. So he “timed” the one risk. He did not pull his entire investments.
So some of his investments most likely lost that day.
if timing the market was a 100% strategy. Why wouldn’t every company do it. If it’s possible as you’re explaining there would be no money left in the market in very short order Everybody would put their chips in that way, and would then drag all the money out the first time everybody did it.
Unless you’re saying you’re just smarter than all of the other people that play the market every day. And only a select few have it “figured out”.
The only way to try to time a market is to not be greedy. I have tried to time crypto markets and by the time I bought back in it already launched up. I already expected a stock market correction but honestly thought it would happen in September or October after the rate cut so yeah timing exactly right is almost impossible you just have to get less greedy and get out and buy and lose out on some percentage.
I never said timing the market is a 100% strategy, just like hold and hope isn't a 100% strategy. If it was the market would never move.
Buffet has trimmed nearly 25% of his entire portfolio in 2024, and is now sitting on a record $277 billion pile of cash. It wasn't just one position he's trimmed. He's famous for his "be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when they are fearful" quote. He's obviously stock piling a mountain of cash for when people are fearful, which apparently he believes will be soon.
Look, like I said, there are no absolutes in investing. For years, the common advice was a 60/40 split between equities and bonds. That strategy went the wayside long ago. The other myth we've heard for years is diversification is the way to go. As a buddy of mine said, that just waters down gains. 75% of Buffet's portfolio is in 5 companies, apparently he didn't get the diversification memo.
Everyone needs to find what they are comfortable with and roll with it.
The only way to try to time a market is to not be greedy. I have tried to time crypto markets and by the time I bought back in it already launched up. I already expected a stock market correction but honestly thought it would happen in September or October after the rate cut so yeah timing exactly right is almost impossible you just have to get less greedy and get out and buy and lose out on some percentage.
I have positions in numerous small cap up and coming stocks but only half the position just in case the market does not collapse. If it does I will put more into each so I’m covered either way. I do not have any mega stocks except for a few Tesla. I have my 401k money to put into the large caps as they are so run up I’m not going put a few K into them to buy only a few. I am liking the possible future winners although they are alittle risky at the moment but I’ve been studying them. Check out Skyt as they are an up and coming semi conductor company that has a very promising earnings report going forward. Not investment advice ;)
Some of these 13F filings put people on a higher pedestal than they really are. You hear so and so sold, or trimmed big time, according to the 13F just filed. Remember, that’s for the previous quarter, and if you look at the stock’s chart for the quarter, they could have sold early or mid quarter, and not even been close to what it ended the quarter at.
The usual definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We haven't even had one, yet, and last quarter showed very healthy GDP growth. We will not be in recession in September. The Fed has been hinting at lowering rates in September for a few months because the economy is approaching their targets with respect to inflation and employment, as well as other metrics.
“The usual definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We haven't even had one, yet, and last quarter showed very healthy GDP growth. We will not be in recession in September.”
My understanding is that GDP is divided by the inflation rate so the percentage isn’t skewed. Well let’s be real we had insane inflation over the last couple of years so I would like to know the rate they used. If you guys think the attached chart looks fantastic then yeah we are booming.
GG they account for inflation rate to come up with a GDP percentage but how do they really get an accurate inflation rate? It seems this number could easily be skewed.
"Hiring is very stagnant. Next are job reductions. Layoffs."
Which is exactly one of the Fed's objectives to tame inflation. You can't lower inflation and have robust job growth and low unemployment at the same time. In basic economic terms, inflation is caused by too much demand for too little supply. The only way inflation is tamed is by slowing the economy until the supply/demand imbalance is corrected. The unfortunate consequences of that is lower job growth, and higher unemployment. The Fed does that primarily by raising interest rates. Their challenge is to not slow the economy too much to throw us into recession...the so-called "soft landing". We'll see if they do it.
"GG they account for inflation rate to come up with a GDP percentage but how do they really get an accurate inflation rate?"
That's correct, the GDP is adjusted for inflation or deflation. They've been calculating it the same way for decades. Not sure what your point is. Do you think they just pull an inflation number out of thin air to calculate GDP?
Hey Dan, I would agree, my nuke scenario is a long shot- worst case. The next big shock will more than likely be something no one saw coming...in fact, I would guesstimate that wars will be fought on a different battle field in the future; Hacking into communications, Satellites, power grid, water distribution- etc-
Heck, 4 terrorists each in a different section of the country with a car full of malatov cocktails could burn the country to the ground.
My point is; It just feels like the world is a much more dangerous place from even just a few years ago and I don't have any confidence in our leadership to do anything to stop it or protect us.
Seems to me, financial markets don't like that....though even as I say that....the FTSE 100 is on track to outperform the US markets and look at all of the crap going on over there.
It could be I just don't get the "Wall of Worry" thing.....
Bruce, I try not to worry needlessly about things I have no control over. Works pretty well for me... Stoicism 101 I guess.My goal is to focus on only what I can control
Unfortunately due to lagging effects we now have higher unemployment that has just begun and along with the lag affect of the rate hikes the odds of a soft landing now become not so soft but we will see.
BOA says recession ain’t happening. Boy this reminds me of Yellen saying inflation is transitory. If BOA is saying no recession my money is on recession!
So in the week since everyone was gloom and doom, we got inflation reports that show further cooling, hotter than expected retail spending, and jobless claims hit the lowest level since early July all suggesting that a soft landing looks more and more likely than a hard landing. The markets have rebounded and we currently sit only ~2% below all time highs. I'd say it's wild how quickly things can change, but it's not - and just further proof that last week's selloffs were essentially the result of unjustifiable mass hysteria and not actual weakness in the economy.
"Nice hit stealthycat.. having a good year so far?"
yes, I'm a little player outside my 401K's / IRA's ........ I'm selling CRMT at $66 and buying a $58 and playing that but reports coming out in next 2 weeks that make me itch to sell all and wait and see
I regret not buying DJT stock before the first primary - if Trump wins in NOV that stock will double overnight. If he loses it'll drop 50% .... highest risk/reward stock I know of ! .... if I wasn't a little chicken I'd buy CCL and KSS ..... but election time scares me :)
In many cases, it is indeed plausible that the economy is adding more jobs than it is adding workers. This can be seen in how the economy is apparently adding far more part-time jobs than it is adding full-time jobs. In fact, the economy is rapidly shedding full-time jobs, and full-time job measures point to recession.
Over the past year, as total employed persons has stagnated—and total jobs increased 2.6 million—we find primarily growth in part-time jobs. Over that same year, total part-time jobs increased by 1.8 million. During the same period, full-time jobs fell by 1.5 million. Net job creation during that period has been all part-time. In the month of June alone, workers reported a gain of 50,000 part-time positions while full-time jobs well by 28,000.
Year over year, total full-time employees fell 1.2 percent. Over the past three months, in fact, the year-over-year measure of full-time jobs has been in recession territory. Full-time jobs have now been down, year over year, in February, March, April, May, and June. Over the past fifty years, three months in a row of negative growth in full-time jobs has always been a recession signal and has occurred when the United States has been in recession, or about to enter a recession:
Over the past fifty years, three months in a row of negative growth in full-time jobs has always been a recession signal and has occurred when the United States has been in recession, or about to enter a recession:
"we have lost approximately 20% of our buying power. hopefully your investments have netted 20% in the last two years"
If you haven't netted 20% in the last 2 years, stop managing your own money and hire someone to do it. My trading wizard friend crushed that....just this week. He's up 140% YTD, and it hasn't been just a few big winners. He works harder at it than anyone I know. Oh wait, I forgot, hold and hope beats trading every time. Right?
“we have lost approximately 20% of our buying power”
Since when? Based on what? I highly doubt that based on the trajectory of equities and assets as of late. My guess is you’re confusing buying power with purchasing power, which you’d expect to drop during times of economic expansion as moderate inflation is a sign of a healthy economy).
“You most likely will not find accurate data on the Internet Big tech modifies the search results to favor the Biden regime”
Says the guy that just posted an article on the internet lol
“look into how many months in the last two years those Rosie job numbers have been revised down”
So what? This is about as meaningful as a stat on how many months GDP numbers have been revised upwards.
I've done well holding. I have also done well selling and then waiting for a dip. Yes I missed some extra gains, but have sold some before a big drop too. I do find it odd that the market continues to go up, even on bad news. But I am not letting fear control my money decisions. I am moving towards piling more cash and not buying when a stock is at or near an all time high.
GG, curious is your friend Warren Buffet? What's his 10 year return? If he has the talent he should look to do it professionally. I've met a few Hedge Fund managers that aren't as nearly as talented that pull in couple of million a year not counting their own investment earnings.
Altitude don’t forget you have inflation which erodes your gains but when you sell you lose another 22-24% in taxes. It’s a hard way to earn a buck for sure. Some guys are real good with charts and win more then they lose but nobody can be 100% that’s for sure. I watch a guy named Stock Moe on YouTube and he is pretty damn good at trading. I haven’t really been trading I’m more on a 1-3 year hold plan with maybe a short play or two on the side. This market has been going non stop for 18 months so I’m guessing there will be a 30% correction at least by end of year. I’m saving up for the buy in hopefully I am correct. If not I still have some in the market .
First off, boys, my trading wizard friend isn't me. He's teaching me his craft, but I'm still in the 1st grade of my education. Second, his 140% is YTD, as in the last 8 months. His return since January 2022 has been 338%. Those are honest to God numbers from a guy who has no formal training in trading stocks. It's all self-taught.
Mint, my friend is pushing 80 years old, and has some health issues. Trading stocks has been the one thing that has kept him motivated and above dirt. He's one of the smartest guys I know. He also realizes, if he shares his trading system publicly, it won't work anymore....kinda like publicly sharing the GPS coordinates of a secret hunting honey hole.
Ponzi scheme? LOL! He trades the same stocks and ETFs that any of us can. And he shares his results with me daily.
Look, I don't really care if you guys believe me, or not. I know it's the truth. Just because you can't fathom those type gains, doesn't mean some guys are consistently doing it. Stick with your hold and hope strategies. It's a proven passive way to grow wealth over 20-40 years. But don't think for a minute it's the only and most lucrative strategy for everyone.
Well... Randy Ulmer is a great archer and bow hunter, Lebron James is a great basketball player, Nolan Ryan was a great baseball pitcher.. I see no reason why some great stock market traders should not exist also. I believe GG
"Ok, good he is handling your trading only. Not handling cash. Or liquid assets"
I have no idea what you are talking about. He doesn't "handle" any of my finances. In fact, he constantly reiterates his methods are his and his alone, and I should take them for what they are worth. Most investors couldn't stomach the calculated risks he takes, I know I can't. I guess when you jump off a cliff and survive, or even thrive, enough times, you learn to trust your methods and instinct. That's where he's at, and it's beautiful to watch and be a part of. It inspires me, too, and I'm honored to call him my friend.
The wealthiest man I ever knew was a relative who started his own business and watched it grow to be a Fortune 500 company. He owned a lot of stock in his company and I asked him once about investing advice and he said he didn’t know anything about it and that “I just got really lucky”. I like to think that there are trading “wizards” out there and obviously there are some who did it much better than others, but I do believe there is a fair amount of luck in success.
You become a trading wizard when you make money at all times. Making money in a bull market is pretty straight forward. When the market tanks and is choppy then you find out what you know.
Any thoughts on Nvidia going into earnings from the short term fellows? Another blowout being priced in these last few days and anything less will be a huge disappointment? Or does it mirror the last few quarters and keep on keeping on? Added a bit more under $100, but starting to think this earnings pump has to be played out at some point, especially if simpletons like me are watching/expecting it! :)
As always, not investment advice in any manner.... I've owned some Nvidia since the 9th again... maybe will sell half day before earnings and hold half through? Normally don't like to hold through earnings, may split the difference though.
I've owned Nvidia many times in last couple years, been good to me. Good luck.
GG the comment I made didn’t mean to say that I know how to play a choppy market I meant that when you make money in it you are a well seasoned trader. I bought mainly small caps as I felt the big stocks are run up so much I’d rather have a chance at bigger gains. I don’t a dropping market as shorts can destroy you and at the moment we have too many things going on to be risky.
Wtf with these double posts? GG i definitely think I’m learning quite a bit this time around and basically the only strategy I’m using at the moment is buying stocks that have gotten hammered down or small companies that seem like they will be decently profitable in the near future. My last buy was Honest Company which took off the day after I bought so good so far. I intend on buying more SKYT as if they keep the revenue increasing it could be a future winner. So anyway that’s the plan so far. Crypto should peak out next year like clockwork and I’m up decent on that so hopefully no government caused collapse which is making things sketchy now.
The Harris plan to punish big business for price gouging.
Once again, those who broke it have the solution to fix it.
It’s mind-boggling how people don’t tie these things together
They created the housing bubble and the market collapse.
They create the Covid inflation and where we’re at now, and their answer is to punish the victims( greedy businesses) who are dealing with high prices of materials.
This could be the most damaging example of government incompetence and meddling that I’ve seen yet in my life. if they’re able to pull this off, it will wreck the economy for decades. Or forever.
Her and Biden are actually asking for a Pat on the back for getting inflation down to 3%
But why shouldn’t they, 49% of the country doesn’t even know who created this inflation mess.
"....basically the only strategy I’m using at the moment is buying stocks that have gotten hammered down or small companies that seem like they will be decently profitable in the near future."
Like I said, we have completely different trading philosophies. I've never been a fan of chasing bottom feeders hoping for huge gains. That's like betting on the long shot at the horse track. I like to bet on the favorites.
Wtf with these double posts? GG i definitely think I’m learning quite a bit this time around and basically the only strategy I’m using at the moment is buying stocks that have gotten hammered down or small companies that seem like they will be decently profitable in the near future. My last buy was Honest Company which took off the day after I bought so good so far. I intend on buying more SKYT as if they keep the revenue increasing it could be a future winner. So anyway that’s the plan so far. Crypto should peak out next year like clockwork and I’m up decent on that so hopefully no government caused collapse which is making things sketchy now.
GG I scan the financial reports and most are not bottom feeders except for a gamble or two. Bought FUBO last week and up 33% so far. That stock got hammered and has football season coming up to add to the lawsuit win. I am pretty methodical in my decisions and I would say I’m up on 90% of my plays. Sure I could pick the obvious winners but how many shares can I get when they are $150 to 500? I let my 401k buy those. My play money is in small caps and my largest is Tesla. I’m pissed PayPal is doing well I should have bought more. I am also kicking myself not bagging more Palantir at $21 was expecting a bigger crash but didn’t happen.
"Sure I could pick the obvious winners but how many shares can I get when they are $150 to 500?"
Why does it matter if you buy 1 share at $500, or 500 shares at $1? If both investments climb at the same rate, they make the same gain. The difference is, the $500 share is priced that way for a reason, and vice versa. If you can buy "obvious winners" why wouldn't you?
Again, our methods are polar opposites. I trade to make money, not throw darts in the dark hoping one hits the bullseye.
GG I get what you’re saying about percentages but if Nvidia has a 3 trillion cap am I better off with a company like Palantir that is posting great revenue YOY with a WAY less cap to run up? What does it take to make Nvidia a 6 trillion cap stock for a simple double? They would have to keep crushing their financials to make that happen. Just checked I’m up on 10 out of 14 stocks so not quite 90%. I don’t really expect my picks to really takeoff for awhile so I’m actually hoping for a crash to buy more.
Well I can’t say I won my Redfin bet by July/August but I am still up a bit and rates should be lowered soon so all hope is not lost. I am guessing $12 by October 1st but who the hell knows! Either way I will sell by end of year as there are better companies out there.
I consider willingness to change and willingness to learn different concepts, even if they are contrary to your current beliefs, good qualities. Doubt any of us will ever know everything about trading.
Fun trying to improve one's skills though..Good luck.
If you block out information because it offends you or is political. You are not making informed financial decisions.
For example if certain political policy ideas move forward. The dollar will be devalued and your gains in the stock market every year will buy less and less. And buy the time you start to withdraw its worth less.
So your investments gain 20% but the dollar buys 40% less. You’re going backwards.
I don't handle other people's finances... so no worries. ;)
Spending effort worrying about things I don't contol is pointless. Waste of time and counter productive for me.
As always I don't give trading advice...... I do freely say some ways I do things.. if it helps someone, well ok. If they want to discard it... that's ok also.
I went from 100% cash to 100% in market the afternoon of Friday the 9th. No free cash , stuff I bought all still in play with no sell signals . So I'm not able to buy anything right now.
I'll pull up a K chart and look it over when I'm back in my office. I don't usually chase but I always look. ;)
Tech has been so strong I seldom stray out of it but do on occasion. Someday I will of course..
Just did a quick look at K on my shop laptop... Closed at 80.29 yesterday, looks like merger price is 83.50? See nothing wrong with a quick glance but I pass because I see little probability of gains I seek.
"Hopefully some of you bought Kellanova when I suggested it on the 6th. It’s still a good buy."
It's had a nice 9% run since you mentioned it, but the options market is highly bearish on it right now. If I owned it, I'd consider taking some profits, not buying more. Not advice.
Best thing in the market is a rising tide... floats all the boats. I love them.
Some believe in lots of different things of course. Up to you as an individual to discern what has value to you and what is just chaff. I like to keep things as simple as I can.
The true always factual barometer is your yearly and year to date % gains. You'll know when you're doing it right.. the market? Doesn't care.
IIRC, the options market has controlled a larger value of stocks than the regular stock market since 2021. Must be a LOT of cocaine freaks out there. ;-)
The options market behavior has zero value for me as far as my methods of trading. Why should i even pay any attention to it? It's meaningless to me.... totally.
I enjoy observing others play options but never have myself. Seriously doubt I ever will... think I'll stick to what I kinda have a partial handle on...
I hear ya bluedog. In grad school they taught us all the fancy strategies - the ol’ iron butterfly and the iron condor, the married put and the covered call, etc etc dabbled a bit but decided it wasn’t for me.
“Tossed the right bait out Blue and reeled in the perfect mullet”
bluedog is a humble, thoughtful, intelligent poster and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was holding out an Ivy League education on us. Don’t worry, csalem, I wouldn’t make the same mistake with you.
I first used that line of bull on Bowsite way back on Jeff Coggins (TennBow).... only I waited a couple weeks for confession.. Doesn't take much to amuse me. ;)
"Never bought options before but I’m thinking about trying my luck."
I dabble in options, occasionally. Mostly weeklies around earnings seasons. Just simple calls and puts, none of the more elaborate strategies. They are a way to leverage small amounts of cash into huge gains, if you pick correctly. For example, last spring I had a hunch DELL was going to crush their earnings report, so I bought near the money calls the day before they reported. My hunch was correct, and I made a 624% gain...overnight.
That said, I've had far more options that expired worthless. Overall, I've made money on my option plays this year, but it hasn't been anything special. I treat them more like sports betting....mostly just for entertainment, and I never bet more than I'm wiling to lose.
GG yup I plan on keeping it simple but I also read a story of a guy that got destroyed somehow due to dividends being involved as he had to pay out the dividends when he sold. I don’t really understand that but it’s making me want to avoid dividend stocks. I assume calls have a max you can lose so maybe he was playing a more advanced kind idk.
I remember the Dell earnings last spring... I held some Dell stock and sold day before earnings report because holding a stock through earnings is always a tad risky.
While GG apparently hit extra bases with his call options I missed a nice stock gap up.
Wasn't a lock though so don't regret being cautious. I miss a lot of trains. Sometimes I'll sell half before earnings and hold rest. NVDA reports the 28th, possible I do that with my NVDA holding? Maybe.. greedy pig syndrome has gave me some flesh wounds in the past for sure. ;)
Spike, if you just buy simple calls and puts, the most you can lose is the premium you paid for the option contract. On the other hand, if you sell naked calls and puts, your loses can be potentially unlimited. Do your research carefully.
You guys seem to be having fun with strategies and stuff. Neat stuff.
The Dell Computer conversation brought back some great memories. My BIL was working for Dell when they went public in '88. He advised I should jump in. I think the IPO was $8.50 and I got in around $9.10 Ended up being a pretty good buy:). I think the stock market was around 2,200 and S&P 280-90. Crazy. Between Dell and Microsoft the end of the 80s became really special. Really gives meaning to the saying " Even a blind hog eventually will find an acorn or two."
Lots of Dell Millionaires made back in those days.. Well done pard.... blind hog can be very good strategy at times.
Yeah... I'm having a good time trading.. between Lyme disease and then small intestine blockage and surgery last November I've been kind of a pansy... trading keeps me sane. I've studied and read and all for years... last almost 3 years now , hell with it dived in hard. Not a daytrader... 3 days to 6 weeks seems typical.. Great challenge and sport for me.
RK, about 25 years ago, I had a little cash saved up, so I decided to try my hand at trading, and I opened a Scottrade account. Back then, there was a minimum balance requirement, and they charged a fee for every trade. I went full bore making multiple trades a day chasing a few percentages points with each trade. I quickly realized I was paying more in trading fees than I was making. LOL
So, I decided to stick the whole account in 3 companies. Apple, because I liked their products. Amazon, because I liked their service. And Intuitive Surgical, because I figured robotic surgery was the wave of the future. Then I let the account ride for 20 years. I'm still trying to duplicate the gains I made from those 3 lucky picks. Probably won't ever happen.
Here's a tale that didn't turn out so well... way back, wasn't doing stocks at all, I got a little windfall from selling a boat. I'd read about Chrysler selling their tank division, they were beaten down so found a stock broker store. Think it was $67 charged for a buy. Anyway spent my wad on Chrysler... did like a 5X score in a few months..
Figured hey this is easy money, sold Chysler and figured I'd rinse and repeat. Put it all on American Motors, another beaten down auto company.. They went broke shortly after and I was wiped out. LOL
Stocks are almost like gambling…you rarely hear about the losers. I had my ass handed to me a few times when I first started trading and it taught me valuable lessons. In fact, I have been whipsawed on some that turned into big gainers…selling while I still had a profit instead of riding them down. Thats playing not investing.
I have a couple buddies that do good on options and short term position trades…and I know bluedog does well.
If you talk to my buddies a few things are evident;
1) Its the culmination of decades of experience watching these markets
2) They watch this stuff daily…and lots of times hourly, you almost have to
3) they love those big markets swings that most of us hate
That takes a lot of dedication to watch this stuff constantly- and many have a day job.
Beendere my first trading experience I bought a silver mining stock at $3 per share at 1000 shares. Not long after it dropped to $1.50 and I had to wait over a year for it to get back to 3.00 again. I decided to sell it for basically a break even to put into something else and it then went up to about $7. What I should have done was bought more at 1.50 and held but bad move on my part. One thing is when you research a company to buy don’t second guess yourself and not buy more when it dumps. I just had a few opportunities to buy a couple I hold for cheaper and decided not to and missed out pretty good because of it.
It’s a form of gambling and speculation hopefully with skill.
I have done another form of speculation that involves even more luck and timing.
Registering Domain names before they have been grabbed up.
Most of the better ones were nabbed a decade or more ago.
Hotels.com, Cars.com Porn.com
People were registering every silly word or name that wasn’t already registered. What many call the .Dotcom boom was partially just registering domain names until a business or person needed it for a website.
Look up the highest amounts paid for domain names. It’s good money.
I have some I’m waiting for an offer on anytime. One could be very good.
The dilemma is most are taken. And you have to register it long before anyone would think to make a business out of that name or thing. Then sit on it.
It’s usually less than $20 per year for most .com
.org, .net .Co are all less per year. But must also be locked down so they can’t get around you
As bluedog mentioned earlier, if you're an active trader, managing the downside risk with stop-loss orders is probably the most important step. Sure, you'll get whipsawed occasionally, which always sucks, but riding a stock downward hoping for a rebound doesn't make any sense to me.
In Spike's example above, his silver mining stock took a 50% plunge. That means it had to rebound 100% for him to break even. That took over a year, and netted him zero gains....AKA, dead money. Had he cut his losses with, let's say, a -7% stop-loss order, he could have put the remaining 93% cash back to work in another investment. The odds are he would have netted a gain on that cash during the year-plus he waited for his silver stock to climb back to break even.
I also agree with Beendare. To be a successful trader requires dedication and a big time commitment. It's a full time job for the best traders I know.
Or if I held for maybe one more year I would have had 7k for a profit of 4K which would have been over 100% in about two years. That silver miner company got bought up by a larger company. Curious to see the results from the larger company. Correction it was a gold/silver miner
GG I have another stock I bought for $10 and it went down to 5.95 and now it’s back up past $10. I try to have confidence in my long plays so although I was a little worried my confidence payed off. I believe this stock is gonna be a killer long play. We will see.
Spike, for me it's not a matter of confidence, but rather a matter of proper money management. We play a different game, for sure. Good luck.
"That you don’t win or lose until you actually cash out."
This is another cliche' that I've never understood. A loss is a loss, regardless if it's still invested or cashed out. The 2008-2009 financial crash was the one that hit us the hardest. I helplessly watched our IRAs dwindle 60%. It took 4 years for them to get back to their previous highs. I wasn't actively managing our IRAs back then, now I am. That won't ever happen to us again.
GG and now is about the sketchiest time for anyone retiring soon. We have possible war, recession, election, S&P 500 valuations high, etc. there ain’t a damn financial “expert” who can predict this one. I’m currently half in and half out waiting for the outcome with my finger on the buy button.
GG and now is about the sketchiest time for anyone retiring soon. We have possible war, recession, election, S&P 500 valuations high, etc. there ain’t a damn financial “expert” who can predict this one. I’m currently half in and half out waiting for the outcome with my finger on the buy button.
Bluedog I’m good with whatever happens as I have a game plan either way. Im leaning more towards recession and 30% crash but our damn government and fed is too dishonest to prove me right and set my plan into motion. By the way, where are all the Bowsiters who said Spike you’re wrong the job market is cranking? If you do the math it means their job reports averaged 100,000 LESS then what they said per month. Now if this rotten government either stopped lying or did their job correctly ole Spike would have initiated his financial plan already instead of prolonging the inevitable. And if you believe the CPI or the GDP is actual figures I’ve got some land for sale.
I'm curious, exactly when did the Feds start lying about the GDP and CPI? That's a bold claim that would have global economic consequences, if true. Oh, is this all part of the grand elitist's plan to control the world?
There's no need to respond. Those are rhetorical questions. But, if you must, go for it....
Probably for the same reason the jobs numbers were off by oh almost 1 million! I guess I would have been called nuts too had I said I did not believe the jobs numbers when it was true. So why does the GDP and CPI have to be correct if the jobs weren’t? You act like it is impossible for either the government to lie especially since there is an election coming and/or screw up a count because the government never screws anything (Trump shooting) up. But yeah I must be wrong never mind.
Spike, here's a tip, the jobs report ALWAYS gets revised when the more accurate QCEW report comes out. Do you even read the links you provide? Apparently you missed this quote from your link.
"Even if the total revision is as high as a million, monthly job gains would average around 158,000 — still a healthy pace of hiring but a moderation from the post-pandemic peak."
Nobody lied, spike. There are different methods relying on different data to estimate job growth - think quick and dirty vs. more rigorous. It’s not surprising that the numbers don’t agree - one wouldn’t expect them to. And while the magnitude of difference this time feels a bit large, it really doesn’t change the current equation or trajectory the data suggests we’re on. It’s why despite the headline sounding scary (OMG, a million less jobs!) it didn’t move the markets.
One trend I noticed over the last month is when the S & P is up, Apple is down. When Apple is up the S & P is down. Isn’t this kinda weird? Isn’t Apple in the S & P?
Michael, I just compared the Apple and S&P one month charts. I don't see the inverse relationship you mentioned. In fact, their charts look almost identical.
Michael, individual stocks will often move opposite the herd based on daily news, both positive and negative, especially around earnings seasons. But, generally, Apple typically moves with the herd. I was fortunate to hold Apple from around 2005 to 2022. Like you, I wish I would have owned more. Nvidia is my biggest woulda shoulda coulda regret. I've owned it several times and made good money on it, recently, but I wish I would have dumped a load into it 5 years ago and just let it ride. I guess if we were all crystal ball readers, we'd all be billionaires.
