Tariffs
Nontypical
Contributors to this thread:
Beendare 24-Feb-25
Jimmyjumpup 24-Feb-25
WV Mountaineer 24-Feb-25
HDE 24-Feb-25
RonP 04-Mar-25
bluedog 04-Mar-25
Mint 04-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 04-Mar-25
bigeasygator 04-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 04-Mar-25
bigeasygator 04-Mar-25
Saphead 04-Mar-25
Beendare 04-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 04-Mar-25
CaptMike 04-Mar-25
Mint 04-Mar-25
bigeasygator 04-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 04-Mar-25
Beendare 04-Mar-25
Al Dente Laptop 04-Mar-25
bigeasygator 04-Mar-25
cane pole 04-Mar-25
CaptMike 04-Mar-25
bigeasygator 04-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 04-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 05-Mar-25
Jimmyjumpup 05-Mar-25
SuaSponte 05-Mar-25
Mint 05-Mar-25
bigeasygator 05-Mar-25
Ambush 05-Mar-25
SD 05-Mar-25
Ambush 05-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 05-Mar-25
SuaSponte 05-Mar-25
Ambush 05-Mar-25
bigeasygator 05-Mar-25
Ambush 05-Mar-25
RonP 06-Mar-25
Zeke 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
Beendare 06-Mar-25
CaptMike 06-Mar-25
RonP 06-Mar-25
Jim Moore 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
bluedog 06-Mar-25
Jim Moore 06-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
Ambush 06-Mar-25
Beendare 06-Mar-25
SuaSponte 06-Mar-25
Ambush 06-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 06-Mar-25
bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
SuaSponte 06-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 06-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 06-Mar-25
CaptMike 06-Mar-25
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bigeasygator 06-Mar-25
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spike78 07-Mar-25
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Bowbender 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 07-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
SuaSponte 07-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 07-Mar-25
Beendare 07-Mar-25
scent 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
scent 07-Mar-25
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WV Mountaineer 07-Mar-25
scent 07-Mar-25
Beendare 07-Mar-25
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Bowaddict 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
Beendare 07-Mar-25
CaptMike 07-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 07-Mar-25
Ambush 07-Mar-25
CaptMike 07-Mar-25
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WV Mountaineer 07-Mar-25
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Ambush 07-Mar-25
Fulldraw1972 07-Mar-25
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WV Mountaineer 07-Mar-25
Bowbender 07-Mar-25
bigeasygator 08-Mar-25
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Bowbender 08-Mar-25
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Zeke 08-Mar-25
bigeasygator 08-Mar-25
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Beendare 08-Mar-25
Beendare 08-Mar-25
bigeasygator 08-Mar-25
SuaSponte 08-Mar-25
Zeke 09-Mar-25
Beendare 09-Mar-25
spike78 09-Mar-25
bigeasygator 11-Mar-25
CaptMike 11-Mar-25
Beendare 11-Mar-25
bigeasygator 11-Mar-25
buckhammer 11-Mar-25
bigeasygator 11-Mar-25
SuaSponte 11-Mar-25
scent 11-Mar-25
Huntcell 11-Mar-25
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CaptMike 11-Mar-25
Beendare 11-Mar-25
scent 11-Mar-25
bigeasygator 11-Mar-25
SuaSponte 11-Mar-25
Ambush 11-Mar-25
bigeasygator 11-Mar-25
SuaSponte 11-Mar-25
Ambush 11-Mar-25
SuaSponte 12-Mar-25
scent 12-Mar-25
bigeasygator 12-Mar-25
scent 12-Mar-25
SD 12-Mar-25
SuaSponte 12-Mar-25
bigeasygator 12-Mar-25
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SuaSponte 12-Mar-25
SD 12-Mar-25
spike78 12-Mar-25
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bigeasygator 13-Mar-25
scent 13-Mar-25
SD 13-Mar-25
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buckhammer 13-Mar-25
CaptMike 13-Mar-25
Bob H in NH 13-Mar-25
bigeasygator 13-Mar-25
Mint 13-Mar-25
Ambush 13-Mar-25
SuaSponte 13-Mar-25
Ambush 13-Mar-25
SuaSponte 13-Mar-25
Ambush 13-Mar-25
SuaSponte 13-Mar-25
WV Mountaineer 13-Mar-25
SuaSponte 13-Mar-25
bigeasygator 13-Mar-25
CaptMike 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
Mike in CT 14-Mar-25
Ambush 14-Mar-25
Mike in CT 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
CaptMike 14-Mar-25
Mike in CT 14-Mar-25
Beendare 14-Mar-25
CaptMike 14-Mar-25
Mint 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
bigeasygator 14-Mar-25
SuaSponte 14-Mar-25
Mint 15-Mar-25
bigeasygator 15-Mar-25
CaptMike 15-Mar-25
Ambush 15-Mar-25
CaptMike 15-Mar-25
bigeasygator 15-Mar-25
Ambush 15-Mar-25
SuaSponte 15-Mar-25
CaptMike 15-Mar-25
bigeasygator 15-Mar-25
SuaSponte 15-Mar-25
bigeasygator 15-Mar-25
Ambush 15-Mar-25
SuaSponte 15-Mar-25
CaptMike 15-Mar-25
Ambush 15-Mar-25
SuaSponte 15-Mar-25
Ambush 15-Mar-25
CaptMike 15-Mar-25
SuaSponte 20-Mar-25
From: Beendare
24-Feb-25
The "Tariffs are bad" crowd just got a slap across the face.

Multiple businesses anchoring with huge multi billion dollar investments in the US.....and now the latest is Apple will spend $500B dollars and create as mochas 20,000 jobs in the US.

Cue the antiquated charts from a College professor that has never worked in the real world.....

Making our own chips or parts for our fighter jets here in the US is vital to the national security of our country. When prices for goods do go up a little, it's balanced out by the citizens with productive jobs.

I think what some folks don't factor in is that we were living a pipe dream on cheap shit. Of course stuff is manufactured cheaper in China when their cost of labor is $1/hour vs the US. For the last many years we were pigs at the trough feasting on cheap goods. Trade in that 60" flat screen for a 70" after only a few years- it's cheap.

I'm no economist but it seems to me that type of economy is unsustainable as something has to give.

From: Jimmyjumpup
24-Feb-25
Our country is broke and so are most of the citizens. Most have to have all the latest and greatest and never save any money for a rainy day. It might be hard for a while tightening our belt but will be good for the country.

24-Feb-25
Bruce, I’ve watched quietly as things progressed concerning Trump and the economy. The one thing that’s always made me feel good about our chances is the optimism that corporate has expressed about moving business back here.

I’m up 15% on stocks and 20% on my retirement. There’s no reason not to believe things will go great.

From: HDE
24-Feb-25
^^^ as long as corporate can keep prices down for businesses to keep operating....

From: RonP
04-Mar-25
"I’m up 15% on stocks and 20% on my retirement. There’s no reason not to believe things will go great."

That's fantastic, and I pray you're right.

From: bluedog
04-Mar-25
"I’m up 15% on stocks and 20% on my retirement. There’s no reason not to believe things will go great."

What time period are you up 15%? Year to date?

From: Mint
04-Mar-25
I don't like tariffs but if other countries are charging tariffs on our goods it should be reciprocal. I'm tired of the USA always getting the short end of the stick.

From: Fulldraw1972
04-Mar-25
I wish I could say I am up 15%. Mine has been crashing down for a week and a half. I would expect the tech stuff but even my broad market ETF is angry right now. Guess I just keep buying. Every day is cheaper than the day before. It’s going to go back up and be above what the highs were at some point.

From: bigeasygator
04-Mar-25
I don't like tariffs but if other countries are charging tariffs on our goods it should be reciprocal. I'm tired of the USA always getting the short end of the stick.

Tariffs only make the stick shorter.

04-Mar-25
Jason, how do you suggest we go about making all the sticks the same length? Everything Trump is doing to help American business and manufacturing grow, is bad according to you.

I realize fundamentally you don’t align with conservative values. But, you’ve flopped off about free markets. So, everyone’s stick has to be the same size. How do we do that without tariffs?

From: bigeasygator
04-Mar-25
I realize fundamentally you don’t align with conservative values

Wrong. I don’t align with your values, WVM. Your values are populist, protectionist, and isolationist - far from the conservative values grounded in the free market and free trade that I support.

Don’t for a second confuse this MAGA garbage for conservatism.

As far as dealing with tariffs, the solution isn’t more tariffs or the threat of more tariffs. All that has done is brought massive uncertainty to corporations and markets. It’s frozen investment and sidelined capital. Literally all of the “Trump Bump” is now thanks to the reality of Trump’s policies. Apparently Mr. “Art of the Deal” isn’t that savvy.

The answer to protectionism isn’t more protectionism.

From: Saphead
04-Mar-25
BEG Good thing we have you to know how to fix all this stuff. Kind of like me explaining to Andy Reid what the Chiefs should do to win the next Super bowl.

From: Beendare
04-Mar-25
Funny, now national security is somehow bad...or MAGA?

Tariffs are used to effect a long term solution to fixing inequities.

The can has been kicked down the road long enough....and yes there will be some short term pin with tariffs.

Tariffs are responsible for the commitment by many companies to bring manufacturing back to the US- hundreds of millions in Chip manufacturing, vehicles and tech. Good things.

Tariffs are necessary to rectify the unfairness and bad policy of other countries. They help put political pressure on other countries, 3 examples; 1) Countries that are not respecting our borders and are allowing drugs and illegals to pass freely. 2) Countries that are not paying for their own national security but relying on the US taxpayer to fund their protection.

3) Countries like China that are stealing our intellectual property, pumping massive amounts of Fentanyl into the US

How would the supposed experts here propose to rectify these problems without using tariffs?

The Democrats choose to just look the other way and do nothing and the US has been trampled.....and it appears there are some here that still think that repeatedly getting punched in the face is a solution. Just goes to show that many do not understand the intricacies of Tariffs or still think of them only in a short term economic format.

I think things will improve when people start to look at it for what it is, long term improvement instead of, "Anything Trump does is bad"-which is clearly the case with many of these Liberal Dem politicos.

04-Mar-25
What is the answer then? Im talking about fixing the current market favorites in favor of a free market. You aren’t sharing privy info. Tariffs are not idea under most circumstances. However, it’s the only option as is for anyone who cares for American producers to have a truly free market. Since you are against leveling the field, how do we do it then without tariffs?

FWIW, I wasn’t referring to trump’s policies as a benchmark of conservatives. Even though most are geared that direction. Instead, I was referring to your never ending tirades of trans, queers, homosexuals, etc…. Rights. They are fundamentally different than conservative values.

You flip flop like a scatter rug. If it’s a knock against Trump you are all in.

From: CaptMike
04-Mar-25
TDS causes convoluted thinking.

From: Mint
04-Mar-25
How is it "free trade" when other countries shut us out with high tariffs? Or in China's case having to own a piece of each Company and stealing the technology.

From: bigeasygator
04-Mar-25
Since you are against leveling the field, how do we do it then without tariffs?

Make a deal. Negotiate new trade agreements. Tariffs are not the “only” answer. Frankly, they are not even an answer. What they are is a thinly veiled attempt to raise government income so that Trump doesn’t completely blow up our deficit. “Fentanyl” and “unfair trade” are the excuses he’s throwing out to justify these taxes.

How is it "free trade" when other countries shut us out with high tariffs?

No one said it was. But throwing more tariffs in the mix is creating less free trade.

Anyone that says tariffs “level the playing field” clearly doesn’t know how tariffs work and what their impact is on economic utility.

04-Mar-25
Jason. What makes you think that’s not the plan? Listen, you are a smart guy but, you are being blinded by your personal feelings.

The only way to get back a rightful amount of what we’ve given in these trade deals, is to get everyone’s attention. While the tariff isn’t considered a way to handle trade, it IS the way you get your trading partners to the table to negotiate those new trade deals. That’s is common sense 101.

There’s nothing wrong with disagreeing with how this president accomplishes things. But, you can’t argue against the results.

However these tariffs shake out, I’m betting everyone joins the table much quicker because of them. Mission accomplished.

From: Beendare
04-Mar-25
OMG, How naive.

Yeah, let's just tell China they have to stop pumping Fentanyl into our country....and stop ripping off our intellectual property rights. No problem...I'm sure they will bow down to the US.

The Democrat admins have played ,' See No Evil 'with Fentanyl for a long time, literally ignoring the problem. Much like they do with the Black on Black violence in cities like Chicago. Oh the irony that they are supposedly the party of the people. Reps are no better. The lower income class gets decimated by ignoring these problems. it's only when a promising college kid dies from smoking a joint he didn't know was laced with Fentanyl that the public gets upset.

Go past one of these parks in LA or Chicago...or New Orleans in the late evening and it's like a bunch of zombies walking around. It's a huge problem that affects all of us economically. Sure, the drug problem is multi faceted but the first part is to stop the drugs coming in. Yes, it's a big deal.

04-Mar-25
If they want the American dollar, they will concede, if not their economies will tell the tale.

From: bigeasygator
04-Mar-25
While the tariff isn’t considered a way to handle trade, it IS the way you get your trading partners to the table to negotiate those new trade deals. That’s is common sense 101.

Just like those tariffs from Trump’s first term brought everyone to the table for new deals, right?

But, you can’t argue against the results.

You’re right. A stock market that’s given up all of the gains associated with any optimism under Trump, a negative GDP, cratering consumer confidence, and a very real risk of stagflation. Those are the results.

From: cane pole
04-Mar-25
BEG, do you think the tariffs are tools of negotiating?

From: CaptMike
04-Mar-25
His answer will vary, based on if you are only talking about tariffs in general or if you are talking about Trump's tariffs.

From: bigeasygator
04-Mar-25
BEG, do you think the tariffs are tools of negotiating?

I don’t think they are effective tools of negotiating.

04-Mar-25
Jason, I guess we will see how it plays out

05-Mar-25
Jason, how do you suggest we go about making all the sticks the same length? Everything Trump is doing to help American business and manufacturing grow, is bad according to you.

I realize fundamentally you don’t align with conservative values. But, you’ve flopped off about free markets. So, everyone’s stick has to be the same size. How do we do that without tariffs?

From: Jimmyjumpup
05-Mar-25
Everyone's stick will not ever be the same size unless we become Socialists.

From: SuaSponte
05-Mar-25
“Just like those tariffs from Trump’s first term brought everyone to the table for new deals, right? “

Was not the mediocre USMCA deal done in 2017 from the bad NAFTA deal?

From: Mint
05-Mar-25
How is it "free trade" when other countries shut us out with high tariffs?

"No one said it was. But throwing more tariffs in the mix is creating less free trade."

So instead of trying to get them to remove their tariffs by implementing our own we should just let them to continue to charge tariffs? Why wouldn't they continue to charge them then or even raise them?

From: bigeasygator
05-Mar-25
Everything Trump is doing to help American business and manufacturing grow, is bad according to you.

That's not true at all. I've never said that. On principle, I'm all for sensible deregulation. That said, I think most of the times market forces are much, MUCH stronger than regulatory forces (ie, look at the oil industry - essentially the only thing that's going to get people to Drill Baby, Drill is higher oil prices).

I realize fundamentally you don’t align with conservative values.

That's false. Just because I don't align with you on every single thing doesn't mean I don't lean conservatively on A LOT of issues. The economy is one that I've always been conservative on (unless you want to move the goalposts and call this MAGA driven protectionism "conservative" and then you're right, I don't agree).

So, everyone’s stick has to be the same size. How do we do that without tariffs?

This stick analogy is a horrible one when it comes to tariffs IMO. Tariffs attempt to pick producer winners (domestic) and losers (foreign) at the expense of the consumer. They always result in overall economic loss. This is Economics 101. So to any extent tariffs may "equal the playing field" they are only doing so by causing more economic loss across the board. Ideally there are no barriers to trade and everyone's "stick" is as big as possible. But if someone wants to shorten their stick in an attempt to shorten ours, the answer isn't to make our stick shorter to try and shorten theirs back.

As a negotiating tool they are horrible. You are seeing this play out now. Industries are paralyzed. Even when there is merely the threat of tariffs on the table this is the case - companies are sidelining billions of dollars because the future is incredibly uncertain. Many companies are already pricing in the tariffs into their economics and it's killing projects. And if these are only "temporary," why would a company invest money into altering their business model if the framework under which they make these decisions is going to change in the not to distant future. These are the impacts the threat of and implementation of tariffs is already having - it's why markets are reacting the way they are.

As far as what can be done - when it comes to the carrot or the stick, I much prefer the carrot. Plenty of ways to get a deal done with positive incentives and not negative ones. Mr. Art of the Deal only seems to be a one trick pony on trade - and there's a reason I think that's the case. I think it's because he in fact really thinks tariffs are a good idea and that while he realizes they are a tax (which he needs to keep anything close to a balance budget) he can sell them as something else and people are too ill informed to know any better.

From: Ambush
05-Mar-25
There are people that believe that the tariffs Trump puts on countries gets paid by that country to the US. Not so, it is simply a sales tax on the American consumer paid to the federal government. I thought all you guys hated taxes.

But take heart. The very wealthy are making money hand over fist on the markets now and in the immediate future and I’m sure they’ll share with the guy with the little retirement nest egg.

From: SD
05-Mar-25
The way I read this is that tariffs are bad negotiating tools as they hurt the economy by causing companies to be very conservative in spending. That makes sense to me. Does this concept not encourage countries to try to bargain the tariffs away? A little loss in a deal might be better than a big loss with the tariff? Wouldn't this give the country with the stronger economy the leverage (even though it does hurt them, it doesn't hurt them as much as it does the other guy)? I truly don't know much about this stuff. It seems my way of thinking it through is likely wrong, but I don't know why.

From: Ambush
05-Mar-25
Might as well clear up The bullshit “subsidy” claim too.

According to Trump, if he buys $100 worth of potatoes from you, at an agreed upon price, then he just gave you a $100 subsidy.

His “ hundreds of billions in subsidies” are the purchase price of the goods that the US consumers bought at an agreed upon price from Canada. No different than you buying groceries. Do you consider your purchase a subsidy to the store or just a mutual transaction?

If you don’t like the price that you both previously agreed to, should you just shop elsewhere or go burn the store down?

From: Fulldraw1972
05-Mar-25
Why does Canada tariff 200% + on US dairy products?

From: SuaSponte
05-Mar-25
If i read tarrifs correctly. NAFTa was like free money on our government. USMCA fixed it slightly. Now it looks like another better brokered deal will happen. My thoughts are Canada will have to cut a deal. The trade imbalance is just to great for them.

Big US steel consumers are going to get import waivers for some time. Keep US Auto selling products awhile while foreign car builders using China Brazil and Canada Steel imports will have ask more for Autos. Good for USA.

Tariffs no hurting Walmart much i see.

From: Ambush
05-Mar-25
I don't know Fulldraw, where did you get that number?

SuaSponte: Where did these deals come from? Who negotiated them? Were they forced onto the US under duress? Did Trump himself negotiate, approve and then even brag about the last deal? And now they are so terrible?

From: bigeasygator
05-Mar-25
The trade imbalance is just to great for them.

Let's be clear..."trade imbalance" is a description of a phenomena that - economically speaking - is more of an accounting artifact that a representation of anything "unfair" or "imbalanced." That needs to be said.

As an example, we have a "trade imbalance" with Japan on TVs. It doesn't mean that the trade relationship around TVs is unfair - it means that we import more than we export - for a variety of reasons that make economic sense. When you buy a Sony TV you aren't getting "ripped off" - the opposite is generally true, as a consumer you are benefitting from this so called "trade imbalance."

Trade imbalance and trade deficit is not by default a negative thing - usually it is far from it.

From: Ambush
05-Mar-25
^^^^ Funny you should use TV's as an example. In the town where Zenith TVs were made and were going under, the populace became exceedingly angry with the local Walmart's for selling junk jap-scrap. After much vitriol thrown at them the Walmart finally said plainly, "We have Zenith TV's right next to the imports and even the people that work at Zenith buy the cheaper ones. We can't sell Zenith."

People often put their principles away when they pull out their wallet.

From: RonP
06-Mar-25
securing the border along with arresting and deporting illegals is going well, very well. the same can be said, mostly, for finding and eliminating the wasteful spending of taxpayer dollars. the main reason for these going so well is that trump is not the point person. he gave the direction, stepped away, and let the right people do the job.

the same can't be said for trade and the economy. trump needs to step away, and let the right person do this job. he is not that person.

From: Zeke
06-Mar-25
I don't know enough about tariffs to argue, but I think I read somewhere that the US government was funded mostly by tariffs until the early 1900s. Is that true or just bs?

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
That is true, particularly before the Federal income tax was implemented in 1913.

From: Beendare
06-Mar-25
BEG comment; Trade imbalance and trade deficit is not by default a negative thing - usually it is far from it....An Accounting artifact. Ha!

This^ implies that a country that doesn't make anything and buys all of their goods from other countries is structurally fine. It's fine...until it isn't.

The US has become totally reliant on other countries for critical components manufactured in China and other countries that without them....our economy grinds to a halt.

China makes parts for our fighters and military- what happens if they say- "No more"?

.....remember when Ford couldn't get chips for their vehicles and there were thousands just sitting there?

From: CaptMike
06-Mar-25
"the main reason for these going so well is that trump is not the point person. he gave the direction, stepped away, and let the right people do the job." This is exactly what most people would expect from a president. But remember, he chose those people to do that job.

"the same can't be said for trade and the economy." Here you are completely wrong. He has chosen people to do these jobs as well. That you believe the economy can be judged in such a short period of time only shows your ignorance on the subject.

From: RonP
06-Mar-25
"This is exactly what most people would expect from a president. But remember, he chose those people to do that job."

I don't have to remember, I know that and gave him credit for it. you'd do well to get beyond your TWS and thinking you have to defend the man at every turn. he sucks at some things, like all of us.

From: Jim Moore
06-Mar-25

Jim Moore's Link
Seems like the US as of Jan 28, 2025 is in a record trade deficit. How do we increase our GDP? I'm no economist but it would seem prudent to bring back manufacturing, increase exports, decrease imports... sensibly of course. Maybe the tariffs will work and maybe not, but it appears that the US is a country of consumers and needs to become a country of producers. We are hobbled by so many things it seems. This needs to be corrected.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
This needs to be corrected.

No it doesn't. There is no economic incentive to produce goods for others to consume over consuming goods that others produce. The trade deficit is not a scoreboard.

The way to maximize economic surplus is to let the free market figure these things out and not to let the government try and pick winners and losers by putting tariffs in place.

And it's never too early to judge the impact of policy on the economy. Stock markets are forward looking and they are reacting to new information - the market is saying the policy (and the uncertainty around policy) is eroding economic value already. Forecasts of GDP growth have shifted to negative levels we haven't seen since the height of the COVID pandemic. Consumer confidence is approaching lows we haven't seen since the pandemic thanks to the stagflation concerns driven by Trump's trade, federal workforce, and immigration policy.

I'm hopeful things will turn around and believe the economy is resilient, but this is A LOT of disruption that really has no precedent. The signals are pretty clear on that.

06-Mar-25
Jason, how do you do it? You’ve typed four books defending your policy doesn’t impact markets bs. Now you are preaching exactly opposite. Which is it?

I think you, Ron, ambush, etc… ought to show Trump how to do it since he sucks so bad. While he certainly isn’t the best at something’s, he’s bound to be better at it than the likes of you

Yes, he’s stumbling through the tariffs because he is working hard to get results. I reckon setting around discussing presidential like isn’t his style. I can’t imagine why because It’s worked so well over the last 40 years for the American people.

Markets react to any stimulus. They will recover. And grow. So, pointing out movement in the market as fact that Trump sucks is narcissism. Not proof you are right.

Everybody better tighten their panties up. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. I know. Trump sucks for fighting to bring manufacturing back to this country.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
Jason, how do you do it? You’ve typed four books defending your policy doesn’t impact markets bs. Now you are preaching exactly opposite. Which is it?

Well, if you'd actually listen to what I said you'd realize I never said "policy doesn't impact markets." What I've said is that the impacts of most policy are over blown; that people tend to give far too much credit and blame to President's for things they really have no control over; and there are certain things President's have next to zero direct control over (like "Drill baby, Drill).

What is happening now is none of those things.

Yes, he’s stumbling through the tariffs because he is working hard to get results.

He's stumbling through tariffs because he thinks he can pass them off as good for the economy when the reality is they are nothing more than a tax on consumers. The markets are revealing his lies and he's having second thoughts IMO. I still think he hopes this will somehow "blow over" and he wants to pass them because he needs the tax revenue from these tariffs to not blow up the budget.

From: bluedog
06-Mar-25
Like all consumption taxes the burden of tariffs falls primarily on the poor and the middle class.

From: Jim Moore
06-Mar-25
"No it doesn't. There is no economic incentive to produce goods for others to consume over consuming goods that others produce. The trade deficit is not a scoreboard."

Again, I'm no economist but as a layman, it makes sense that if I am producing and selling more than I am buying and spending, as an entity, I have a trade surplus, do I not? Ergo, a positive GDP. There is an absolute incentive for me to export more than I am importing. If my neighbor is producing and selling more than he is spending, positive GDP. The ripple effect expands on out to county, state, country.

I am under no illusion that I know the intricacies of finance as well as you. I read your posts and get your stock in trade is actually that field as well as the oil industry. However, we seem to be importing way more than exporting which plays on the GDP which is as I read it, an indicator of surplus/deficit. I guess if I look at trade with the idea of my currency being an instrument of trade and trading it for a cheap Chinese TV, I'm exporting something and getting something in return. Is this what your are alluding too?

06-Mar-25
No Jason. You haven’t. You’ve argued till you were blue in the face otherwise. EVERYONE knows it. Saying different isn’t going to change that.

I don’t think he is passing them off as good for the economy. Everytime he’s been asked about their effects he’s plainly stated there’s going to be higher prices coming due to them.

For goodness sakes you are eating up with it.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
Again, I'm no economist but as a layman, it makes sense that if I am producing and selling more than I am buying and spending, as an entity, I have a trade surplus, do I not? Ergo, a positive GDP. There is an absolute incentive for me to export more than I am importing. If my neighbor is producing and selling more than he is spending, positive GDP. The ripple effect expands on out to county, state, country.

In isolation, you are correct...however, you are ignoring other factors of GDP which are massively important. In fact, the classic GDP equation is: GDP = C + I + G + (X-M).

Essentially it says that the amount of goods and services produced is equal to the amount purchased by consumers (C), plus the amount purchased by businesses (I), plus the amount of goods and services the government purchases (G), plus the amount of goods produced domestically but purchased abroad (X for eXports), minus the amount of goods purchased domestically but produced abroad (M for iMports). You'll often see X-M represented as (NX for net exports) and when that is negative we have a trade deficit; when it's positive we have a trade surplus.

Now if the only contributors to GDP were imports and exports, you would be correct Jim. But they aren't. View it from a consumer's lens. When the economy is roaring and I've got a bunch of excess cash that I'm willing to spend my C will be really high. Now I won't spend all of that C domestically because (1) it may be more economical to buy goods from abroad or (2) certain goods we buy may only be produced abroad (think Swiss watches). But just because that leads to a higher "M," it really is driven by the fact that C is much higher. The same might be true for businesses - we may be importing a whole bunch more steel but it's because business investment (I) is massively increasing and overall pushing the GDP higher on balance. That's why I say in many ways the NX portion of the equation is an accounting tool to with the GDP equation than it is a reflection of economic health.

What is happening now is GDP is being driven negative because (1) consumer confidence is cratering and the expectation is there will be less consumer spending, (2) tariffs are freezing capital and impacting business investment...all because Trump is concerned about the trade balance which makes up less than 3% of the overall GDP.

From: Ambush
06-Mar-25
I'm guessing that at least half of the people that voted for Trump didn't sign up for this chaotic, one man shit show. Trashing international relationships all over the world and causing chaos at home. This irrational extremism is going to cost Republicans both houses. And then what?

The auto industry made him back down and now the American farmers are begging for a carve out for potash. What else?

And yeah, I'm a little biased because he's trying to destroy my kids and grandkids country and economy. It won't be as easy as he thinks.

06-Mar-25

Ricky The Cabel Guy's embedded Photo
Ricky The Cabel Guy's embedded Photo

Ricky The Cabel Guy's Link
“And yeah, I'm a little biased because he's trying to destroy my kids and grandkids country and economy. It won't be as easy as he thinks.”

Maybe not all Canadians.

From: Beendare
06-Mar-25
It's shocking how uninformed many of the US voters are.

So you would have been better off with another puppet for the 4th Obama admin? More kicking the can further down the road, importing even more illegals, spending billions of tax dollars on silly policy which is really only a way to funnel the money back to Democrats.

Where would we be if Harris was president for 4 years? Even more illegals, Gang members, drugs coming in and terrorists sneaking in to the US

The wasteful spending would blow up the deficit and we would be paying so much in interest we cannot provide many essential services for our citizens.

Other countries would continue not to pay their fair share and the US would continue to pay the lions share of the UN that would continue to berate the US

DEI would be going full bore- Merit, innovation and efficiency would continue to be bad words. Free speech would be gone

the Democrats would continue to rape and pillage Taxpayers literally stealing from them

You would be considered a criminal if you legally own a gun

Government would be so bloated and out of control.....and costing us trillions it would bankrupt the country

The Obama/Biden policy has dug us a huge hole....it's going to take more than 6 weeks to fix it.

From: SuaSponte
06-Mar-25
Siemens announcing US buildout here. Forward thinking CEO Busch sees tariff policy changing now and for future when doing business with USA. Going invest hundred billion plus.

Twenty years of GWOT, a few years of tariff war cant be that bad can it?

From: Ambush
06-Mar-25
Beendare, I don't think anyone is saying that change was not absolutely necessary and called for and I think many people did simply vote against the dem continuation. We have the same in Canada after ten years of a left and farther left coalition. (Our Conservatives were set to win a huge majority, but unfortunately for us, Trump has thrown the libs a life line. I hope it sinks in time.)

And again today, Trump is busy undercutting his closest administrators and trying to save face while back pedaling. The few with extreme TWS will say "he's got a plan, he's playing chess" but IMO, he's flailing and he's losing a big slice of those right-of-center voters as they watch the spontaneous and reckless trashing of responsible governance.

Gonna be a lot of senseless, needless pain in both our countries' futures and the trust and relations will never be the same again, for Canada, Mexico and many other countries.

From: Fulldraw1972
06-Mar-25
I am getting exactly what I voted for.

As for the Tariffs, we will see how things go. The sky hasn’t fallen yet. Take a breath.

The April 2nd reciprocal tariffs is what I want to see. There are definitely countries that don’t play fair with the US.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
The April 2nd reciprocal tariffs is what I want to see.

Why? Why do you want more taxes? Why do you want more economic uncertainty and market volatility?

06-Mar-25
Me too. As are most Americans according to polls. Those that aren’t have had the last 20 out of 25 years to favor their families, grandkids, etc…. Because Donald Trump wants the American family to benefit versus Canadian families, Mexican families, Great Britain’s families, etc…. means he’s doing what he was elected to do.

Thats Donald trumps job. Had he favored other countries over his, like many politicians and presidents have, with their policy, he wouldn’t have gotten elected. Because no matter what detractors say, that was his intent. And, people recognize that.

People also understand no matter how it shakes out, markets will recover. Their portfolio’s will be fine. And, if Trump succeeds, OUR kids and grandkids will benefit from it.

That’s his job. That’s what he was hired to do. He’s not stupid. He knows what he’s doing to markets. He also knows it’s a necessity if he does what he told Americans he would do.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
Because Donald Trump wants the American family to benefit versus Canadian families, Mexican families, Great Britain’s families, etc…

No you don’t. You clearly don’t or you would not be supporting these policies. You may believe these things you type, but all they show is that you fundamentally don’t understand trade and who “benefits” from it, Justin.

06-Mar-25
Jason. My goodness man. I can’t make it any simpler. The only thing I care about is America first. I understand trade, economics, the stock market. Investing. But, every one of those mean less to me then America first.

I’m not a pussy. I don’t expect people to serve me. If my stuff costs more because it’s made in America, I’ll work harder to pay for it. But, what I don’t want to do any more is work harder to help residents of other countries with my tax revenue.

I’d rather have American dollars being spent on American interests. No matter the cons.

The one thing history tells us is optimism always finds a way. America will prove that true. Even if it proves harder to accomplish.

No matter how confusing the last 5 months have been for you, the majority of America identifies more with how I feel than how you feel. Nothing you say or try to insinuate is going to change that. America sees this presidents intent and is willing to bear the task.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
I understand trade, economics, the stock market. Investing.

Yeah, nothing you’ve said gives me any kind of confidence that you do - in fact, generally the opposite is true. So like a lot of things, we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

The only thing I care about is America first.

Having the government decide what industries are winners and losers and implementing policy that unquestionably, without a doubt erodes economic value and harms the average American is not “America First” IMO.

From: SuaSponte
06-Mar-25
Sold in Dec. Im buying now. Lots of iver sold over priced companies looking great now.

Plenty money to be made in the dip. Frankly same names that have been doing well just at a much better cost.

Just like the Deepseek fake. Great opportunity to grab some bargains.

The only way to stop product dumping in our markets is to make it equal. Like ALCOA . Now they have a chance. Bond markets our responding as they should.

Pain is only weakness leaving the body. You dont receive any benefit without some.

From: Fulldraw1972
06-Mar-25
“Having the government decide what industries are winners and losers.”

The only industries I see the Trump administration choosing to be winners are American industries. Which I am ok with. As for the losers well I simply don’t care.

I am sick and tired of other countries interests being put in front of our own by our politicians and elites.

06-Mar-25
Yep.

From: CaptMike
06-Mar-25
America first seems like a foreign concept to sleaze. We are very capable of being self sufficient. We have a thriving economy. Other countries need us far more than we need them. It is asinine to subsidize other countries and hopefully Trump will lead us away from that ridiculous practice.

From: CaptMike
06-Mar-25
“I don't have to remember, I know that and gave him credit for it. you'd do well to get beyond your TWS and thinking you have to defend the man at every turn. he sucks at some things, like all of us.”

Apparently, you do have to remember it. It is the same Trump who chose ALL his advisors. And you conveniently ignored the fact that not nearly enough time has elapsed for anyone to adequately and accurately assess his economic impact.

From: bigeasygator
06-Mar-25
Impact of tariffs from Trump’s first term: reduction of long-run GDP by 0.2 percent and the reduction of 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

Estimated impact of Trump’s currently proposed tariffs: tax increase of $1,100 per household, loss of over a quarter million jobs, long run GDP reduction of .5%.

#Americafirst

From: SuaSponte
06-Mar-25
If inflation can be reduced and GDP added due to tariffs. The $ you save servicing ling term debt would be a good thing.

We did the ACA, Chips Act, shovel ready bill, Covid welfare, QE printing of the dollar all of which have made our debt servicing going parabolic.

It has to be reduced by all measures possible at the nations peril. We must try something else. The country saw this, they voted for it full knowing it will not be easy.

Medicaid will and must be restructured. It can absorb these expenditures with millions more non citizens drawing from it. We are a generous nation but not to the peril of our values.

From: SuaSponte
07-Mar-25

From: spike78
07-Mar-25
Meh a lot of the companies are still way over valued like Palantir. The S&P should still get down to 5500 that would be a 10% correction but if unemployment numbers keep getting worse and GDP sucks again we should see a 20-30% drop.

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
Meh a lot of the companies are still way over valued like Palantir

You’ve been saying this for years, spike. Frankly, IMO, there is essentially no such thing as “over valued” in the stock market. The value is what the value is.

That said, the market reacts to new info I think if the market continues to see tariff uncertainty coupled with continued deterioration in lagging indicators we very well may see bigger corrections ahead.

From: Bowbender
07-Mar-25

Bowbender's Link
I guess this is bad....

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
Not if you're a factory worker in Indiana.

But if you're someone looking to buy a Civic, a Honda shareholder, or an average American, it is bad.

07-Mar-25
I’m glad the colonies had men more concerned about their countrymen than their short term asset value. Or, we’d be eating Shepard’s pie instead of ribeyes to this day.

From: Fulldraw1972
07-Mar-25

Fulldraw1972's Link
The auto industry is in big trouble. Cars and truck prices have sky rocketed in the last 4 years. These tariffs probably won’t help that industry but the vehicles are already not selling.

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
I’m glad the colonies had men more concerned about their countrymen than their short term asset value. Or, we’d be eating Shepard’s pie instead of ribeyes to this day.

This is actually hilarious, WVM. You do realize that a major contributing factor in the lead up to the Revolutionary war was tariffs, right?

From: SuaSponte
07-Mar-25
Not sure. Did the young fellow in video FD72, did he mention the EV losses by US big Auto. They fell for the GVT position that it would end combustion engine auto building and Democrat rule in WA DC was going to last. Both were proved to be useless , wrong and Americans changed course. The left used the environment, the environment and today they are junking their beloved Tesla’s.

Ford has to come up with a deconstruction plan for the Lightning and all its Hazmat components of the thousands sitting unsold. Staggering losses by them during Biden Administration. Near 20 billion i would just estimate offhand.

Europe will do anything to avoid a tariff increase on their autos entering US markets. Reciprocal tariffs in early April 2025 are going shake some EU governments to their very core. Give Tariffs time to even out the markets. Then we can evaluate the effectiveness.

From: Fulldraw1972
07-Mar-25
“Europe will do anything to avoid a tariff increase on their autos entering US markets. Reciprocal tariffs in early April 2025 are going shake some EU governments to their very core. Give Tariffs time to even out the markets. Then we can evaluate the effectiveness.“

That is why in my post above I mentioned I look forward to the reciprocal tariffs.

From: Beendare
07-Mar-25
Ambush, I didn't realize you are Canadian. Yeah, I think Trump went a little bit too hard on Canada. He just might be going too hard too fast on some things and hasn't completely thought things through.

That is typical of his MO....he plays the bully....and he goes off script with some crazy comments. Seems that the old saying is true, you cannot teach an old dog.

That said, He is our bully and I support him. The essence of his policy is badly needed. Our federal gov is infected with liberal DEI and a lot of dead weight.

It had to be done, and there will be some pain to sort it all out. I am a small business guy and understand that. Throw out the charts and the short term Econ reports- they mean nothing in the long term policy of bringing back manufacturing to the US. Trudeau and Zelensky have ticked off Trump and it's obvious some of his animosity is personal. I regret seeing that.

The US has been getting screwed for a long time on Tariffs in other countries. The tariff naysayers ignore this inequity. Germany and China imposes a 10% tariff on US cars. The reciprocal US tariff on German cars is 3%. How is that fair? China imposes tariffs on machinery from the US hurting American companies.

During the Biden Admin the Obama shadow gov imposed a tariff of 100% on Chinese EV's. The hypocrite libs didn't say a word...but now that Trump enacts a tariff that is a fraction of that they blow a gasket?

From: scent
07-Mar-25
UAW agrees with Trump on tariffs.

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
UAW agrees with Trump on tariffs.

The domestic workers in the industry that Trump wants to subsidize with tariffs are in favor of them?? *gasp* that’s shocking.

From: scent
07-Mar-25
beg, all I know is our country has every foreign car or truck ever produced running on our highways... next time your in France or Germany or UK for that matter specifically ask for an American rental, rotsa ruck!

From: SuaSponte
07-Mar-25
Sure, why pay for EU Auto dumping here when they wont take our Autos and then add the VAT on top of their tariff.

Then their non monetary restrictions and regulations on our Autos going into the EU.

This will change, well it already has for some EU nations. At least on the tariff side.

Trump wants their markets to take a sell our Autos on an even playing field. As it is now no EU citizen is going to buy a Buick for same cost as BMW or Audi.

07-Mar-25
I’m setting here eating my lunch listening to Trumps speech.

The White House said there was 280,000 new hires in manufacturing on the anticipation of the golden years to come due to trumps policy.

The White House announced that Canada charges over a 250% tariff on dairy products that we import. And, that reciprocal tariffs would be used to get that back in line.

Of course, we all know about the 1.7 trillion dollars of investment that’s spread over the next 5 years, that’s committed the USA last month.

I didn’t realize 90,000 factories have been closed in this country since the inception of nafta.

I started to bullet all the topics but, I gotta get back to work. But, it sounds like the president has a plan. And it sounds like it hit the ground rolling and is picking up steam. It’s a good time to be an American. With kids and grandkids.

From: scent
07-Mar-25
Democrat voters got comfortable being told America bad other countries good. After decades of lopsided trade policies how long would America last? Exactly why Soros and his ilk brainwashed low information voters to thinking that garbage.

I shutter to think had we lost this past election, Obamas 4th term.

From: Beendare
07-Mar-25
Wow, WV Mountaineer, those are some shocking stats from the real world. No short term chart.....real world facts of how badly the US has been treated by other countries who have been taking advantage of us....all of which is totally ignored by the people making the simpleton statement, "tariffs are bad"

Taken in context....The temporary tariffs Trump proposes should help rectify inequities.

07-Mar-25
Yes it should. And, yes it will. Most people understand that. Even the globalists among us know it.

From: Bowaddict
07-Mar-25
We’ve been in a “trade war” with a lot of countries for a while, we’ve just been bowing down to it. And until recently most Americans didn’t realize it was happening. I would rather not have tariffs either, maybe we can just wave billions of printed money at them to make them stop. I’m sure that would work better!?:)

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
The White House said there was 280,000 new hires in manufacturing on the anticipation of the golden years to come due to trumps policy.

Source?

This isn’t at all what the data shows.

I also do not for the life of me understand the infatuation with manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs have gone away because of automation and technology more than anything else. Our economy has shifted (just like it shifted away from agriculture before that).

Why do people want to go back to the 1950s?

From: Beendare
07-Mar-25
BEG, the way you are phrasing that question indicates you still aren't getting the fact that it's more than just a tariff.

What could happen when we are totally reliant on other countries? Did you see where power to parts on the NE US comes from Canada ....and they are threatening to shut it down?

Did you a couple years back where Ford was totally reliant on certain chips for their trucks and they literally built the whole truck and had thousands of them sitting there unfinished missing the few chips they needed. Many were pre sold with buyers waiting for their vehicle. Then there was cases like a buddy whose new Chevy truck just stopped in the road- due to Chip...and his truck just sat there for 3 months because he couldn't get the chip.

Did you see where Europeans heating bills went through the roof in recent winters.....all because their nat gas was coming from Russia? They were held hostage by a rogue government...and it cost them dearly.

These are the kinds of things- and worse- that can happen. The potential for extortion and inflicting massive pain on US citizens is huge considering that just about everything is made over seas or has components from other countries. Also, much of the critical elements needed to make stuff is controlled by other countries.

It's a bit of a Marie Antoinette attitude to sit back as a US consumer with cheap overseas goods and just consume like pigs at the trough. I think we need to adjust our thinking. Some of that is from my dirt poor upbringing....but some is seeing how we as consumers in the US just want more and more full steam ahead- damn the consequences.

From: CaptMike
07-Mar-25
Apparently sleazy does not want Americans to buy American. Wonder what countries he advocates for?

07-Mar-25
I just told you the damn source.

Jason’s well aware of how he words things. It’s on purpose. So he can deflect and deny doing as charged when his ego gets him in a tough spot.

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
Beendare, there are other ways to onshore jobs without using (or threatening the use of tariffs).

Many companies are already doing this in response to the supply chain disruptions that revealed themselves during COVID. Outside of national security concerns, we should let companies decide what supply chain use best for them and not subsidize industries with tariffs.

All of the current uncertainty and souring sentiment from the protectionism and flip flopping from Trump is completely unnecessary and avoidable.

From: Fulldraw1972
07-Mar-25
“I also do not for the life of me understand the infatuation with manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs have gone away because of automation and technology more than anything else. Our economy has shifted (just like it shifted away from agriculture before that).”

So NAFTA didn’t take jobs out of the US in the 90’s. It was automation? Right, there are plenty of towns that died out when the factory’s left in the Midwest.

You are right on the automation though. Just wrong time line. It is what is going to bring Apple back to the US. In the future our I Phones will not be built by Chinese slave labor. They will be built by robots.

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
Beendare, there are other ways to onshore jobs without using (or threatening the use of tariffs).

Many companies are already doing this in response to the supply chain disruptions that revealed themselves during COVID. Outside of national security concerns, we should let companies decide what supply chain use best for them and not subsidize industries with tariffs.

All of the current uncertainty and souring sentiment from the protectionism and flip flopping from Trump is completely unnecessary and avoidable.

From: bigeasygator
07-Mar-25
So NAFTA didn’t take jobs out of the US in the 90’s.

It certainly took some. But again, the benefits from trade more than made up for it. One need only look at what happened to per capita GDP, unemployment, and wage growth since NAFTA was implemented, particularly relative to the other countries in the deal.

From: Ambush
07-Mar-25
Yeah, you just never know when a formerly friendly and reliable partner country may turn on you, eh.

From: CaptMike
07-Mar-25
Yes Ambush, that goes both ways. Taking advantage of trade deficits could also viewed as not so friendly.

From: Ambush
07-Mar-25
CaptMike, how would you expect 40ml people to buy as much as 400ml people?

07-Mar-25
He doesn’t. What he expects is that the 40 million understand they have choices too. And no where is it right for 400 million to cater to 40 million with those choices but, aren’t exercising them.

If our legislation is to blame for trade deficits that hurt us, so is yours. It’s not personal. It’s the way it works when applied evenly. Which is all Americans want.

From: SuaSponte
07-Mar-25
The NAFTA was a good deal compared to The Dem Congress’ give away from 60-94.

The USMCA was a little better. Now we are going reciprocal in April until manufacturing decides to move north and some move back south.

If the giant German Siemens is not willing to lose its tariff advantage and rather buildout in USA for future that signals to other German behemoths “they not wIting 5 yrs to stRtup”.

German main exports abroad are engineering components, servicing, building and consulting. The shift is already occurring. Lets see what BASF does?

From: Ambush
07-Mar-25
Not trying g to be a smartass WV, but I really don’t understand your answer to the question I asked of CaptMike.

CM says we need a trade “balance”, I guess he means sell a dollar’s worth, but a dollar’s worth? But at one tenth the population, that is not possible. That’s not a choice, it’s just math.

So if we can’t buy more, then you want to just buy less until it evens out? What do you want to buy less of? Lumber, oil, energy, fertilizer, metal and minerals, maple syrup, back bacon and hockey sticks?

I also realize you are just being honest about being protectionist and I appreciate that.

From: Fulldraw1972
07-Mar-25
Sounds like Trump isn’t the only one that likes Tariffs. . China announces Tariffs on Canada after they imposed Tariffs on China back in October.

From: Fulldraw1972
07-Mar-25

Fulldraw1972's Link

From: Ambush
07-Mar-25
Yes, the same 100% tariff on Chinese EV’s that the US did.

07-Mar-25
I want to say that I totally understand and can empathize with every Canadian and Mexican. They didn’t ask for this.

And, I want to be clear that when I say equal, I’m referring to the deal that both countries benefit equally. However that works out. But, it needs to be liquid and revisited often enough to stay that way. And, I trust Trump feels the same way. But, more importantly I’m certain when this works out, he will have achieved that.

Unfortunately, it was going to take this to get it done. And, there’s not been a president in my lifetime that could’ve pulled it off except Trump. That’s my prediction.

From: Bowbender
07-Mar-25
"I also do not for the life of me understand the infatuation with manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs have gone away because of automation and technology more than anything else."

What an uncharacteristically arrogant comment. Maybe there's an infatuation with manufacturing jobs because they don't have a job that is unaffected by economic trends while drawing a solid, solid, six digit salary.

Manufacturing and automation is inexorably linked. And yes, automation has replaced many manual, repetitive tasks, it has also created many high paying machine tech positions. Yes, there are lines that run "lights out". The majority do not. They require skilled techs to operate and service the equipment. These are good jobs with solid pay and benefits. Please feel free to share everything you've Googled about automation and manufacturing.

But before you do, I work for the largest connector company in the world. Title? Automation Design Engineer. We build connectors, interposers and sockets for the likes of Dell, AMD, nVidia, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, GE (medical side, MRI's and such) etc...including numerous AI startups. In a previous life, I've implemented low eight digit automation projects for medical devices/pharma. Numerous low-mid volume proof of principle automation cells utilizing upwards of 30 6 axis robots, done to reduce the manual assembly of devices. Those lines ended up going in to full production mode. Staffed by well paid machine techs. Automated laser welding for dental instruments, cell phone components. All manufacturing jobs. All very, very well paid.

I'd prefer those jobs to stay in the states.

From: bigeasygator
08-Mar-25
Maybe there's an infatuation with manufacturing jobs because they don't have a job that is unaffected by economic trends while drawing a solid

Unaffected by economic trends?? Not sure I can name a sector that’s been more affected by economic trends over the last few decades than manufacturing.

I'd prefer those jobs to stay in the states.

And I prefer they go where the most economic utility is provided. If that’s here, great. If we as a country benefit more economically speaking by them being outsourced or offshored (or replaced by automation), great.

Let the market decide.

From: bigeasygator
08-Mar-25
If our legislation is to blame for trade deficits that hurt us

One more time for the people in the back.

Trade. Deficits. Don’t. Hurt. Us.

In what world is it hurtful to get more than you give?

What do you think happens with all those dollars that get sent abroad?

Again, it’s comments like these that make me think you don’t understand trade or economics, WVM.

From: Bowbender
08-Mar-25
"Unaffected by economic trends?? Not sure I can name a sector that’s been more affected by economic trends over the last few decades than manufacturing."

Uh, I was referring to YOUR job. It's easy to talk about shedding jobs when yours ain't on the line. Or ever will be.

"If we as a country benefit more economically speaking by them being outsourced or offshored..."

Is it our country you truly want to see prosper, or your own portfolio? I understand the two arent mutually exclusive, but if I was a betting man I'd bet on the latter and not the former.

From: bigeasygator
08-Mar-25

bigeasygator's Link
Uh, I was referring to YOUR job. It's easy to talk about shedding jobs when yours ain't on the line. Or ever will be.

I misinterpreted what you wrote then. That said, you clearly don’t know what I do if you think my job is immune to the economic cycle.

I just watched 20% of my colleagues get laid off. I’m watching friends with other companies in the sector deal with similar downsizing. Shedding jobs has literally been the trend in my industry for the last 10 years where employment in my sector is down over 40% during that stretch, all while productivity has increased thanks largely to breakthroughs in technology, automation, and digitalization. Don’t want to take my word for it? You can read the attached article.

My job is always on the line and I have no doubt that at some point I will likely go out on my company’s terms, not mine.

Is it our country you truly want to see prosper, or your own portfolio? I understand the two arent mutually exclusive, but if I was a betting man I'd bet on the latter and not the former.

Both. Saying they aren’t mutually exclusive doesn’t even come close to characterizing how linked those two are. My portfolio prospering is inextricably linked to my country prospering.

From: Zeke
08-Mar-25
I haven't read all these post, but a common theme from some posters is that tariffs are bad for the US consumers. The US consumer has to pay the tariffs that our country levies on other countries. Well, isn't the same true when other countries levy tariffs on the US, don't their consumers pay the tariffs levied on US goods. It doesn't seem to me they are worried about hurting their consumers, since they have levied tariffs on the US for years.

From: bigeasygator
08-Mar-25
Well, isn't the same true when other countries levy tariffs on the US, don't their consumers pay the tariffs levied on US goods

That’s correct, Zeke. Countries do things all the time that benefit the few at the expense of the many. Some countries are communist, too - doesn’t mean we should follow suit.

From: SuaSponte
08-Mar-25
The ones consuming communist products are the same ones enjoying non monetary barriers in trade with US and using tariffs to keep our major end items out of their markets or at reduce numbers.

Kinda the point of this thread.

Those markets are not FREE due to the heavy imbalance of tariffs on US items in those foreign markets.

You want free market economy to decide how things pan out. Well, thats exactly what Trump Admin wants. Seems to me Mr Gator is more aligned with this Administration than his words would have you think.

From: Beendare
08-Mar-25
"Trade deficits don't hurt us" is the same as saying what's wrong with a bunch of cheap goods. It shows a lack of forward thinking- what are the LT consequences. In the moment- sure cheap is good...but what about when 1/2 the US is unemployed and can't even buy cheap goods?

Germany has a 10% tariff on our cars....we only had a 3% tariff on theirs- Fair?

Cost of labor in many of these countries like China, Vietnam, Mexico is under $6/hour, some well under. The US is appx $43/hr per the latest BLS stats I've seen. We have offset that with robotics and manufacturing efficiencies but it's not keeping up.

From: Beendare
08-Mar-25
As an aside to the whole Tariff/ Economic stuff.....

The claim by liberal Dems was that the Biden economy was good. many of us have pointed out the manipulation of the numbers put out by the Obiden shadow gov...and now here is another;

The most recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the percentage of auto loans transitioning into serious delinquency—defined as payments overdue by 90 days or more—increased to 3% in the final quarter of 2024, marking the highest level since 2010. ____

High level of delinquency on sub prime loans. This is a window into how the avg middle and lower class citizen is doing due to Bidenomics........and it's not good when they can't pay their car loan.

From: bigeasygator
08-Mar-25
but what about when 1/2 the US is unemployed and can't even buy cheap goods?

Half the US unemployed? Where on earth do you come up with these hypotheticals?? Do you even know the kind of things that would have to happen for half the US to be unemployed???

To that end, this "unfair" trade that we've all been living with has resulted in full employment in the US for a sustained period of time (full employment is generally considered anything below 5%). Labor force participation for prime working age individuals (25-54 years old) is near ALL-TIME highs of 83.5%. There is no slack in the labor force.

Germany has a 10% tariff on our cars....we only had a 3% tariff on theirs- Fair?

Fair? No. Never said it was. But adding tariffs on top of tariffs only moves us away from free trade and compounds the economic loss.

many of us have pointed out the manipulation of the numbers put out by the Obiden shadow gov...and now here is another;

No you haven't. You've pointed out data collection and data reporting processes that you don't understand. And how is pointing out the delinquency rate on sub-prime loans "manipulation"?

What the data suggests is that the least credit worthy individuals are at delinquency rates of 3%. While you have to go back 15 years to find equivalent levels, this really isn't surprising given the lending and interest rate environment we've been in for the last three years when these delinquencies started to climb.

Tell me how Trump's inflationary policies of tariffs, tax cuts, and reducing the labor supply is going to result in lower interest rates any time soon?

Or is that just his plan, Beendare, add a bunch of inflation back in so that we can crater the economy and get back to a low interest rate world - albeit with massive unemployment, economic contraction, and market corrections?

From: SuaSponte
08-Mar-25
Thats was half the issue with the German Auto market. The VAT and non monetary restrictions are the other half.

Free these markets up and then you can say “ let fair open markets decide what works, whose products are selling well, which companies thrive. Not government barriers and restrictions”.

From: Zeke
09-Mar-25
I am old and don't understand a lot of what I have read here about the best way to fund our government. I did go to school and even college but I never took any economics or high finance classes, So, tariffs are bad for the country that imposes them. Right? Yet the US funded our government for about half of our existence with tariffs. Okay. Then in 1913 an income tax was imposed on the people so that everyone would pay their fair share to fund the government. Only today about half or a little more of the citizens pay no income tax. In fact many of these non taxed people get some of the money that the taxed citizens pay in (earned income tax credits as well as other benefits). Canada and Mexico are not a communist countries, as far as I know. Is it bad for them if they charge a tariff on dairy products, or automobiles, or what ever they buy from us? It is also bad for the US that since Trump announced tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports that Honda is going to move it's production of some Honda's to the US. I also read that some of the Canadian lumber companies are going to shift production to the US. Boy we will really be in bad shape if all of the stuff China makes and sends to the US moves here because of US tariffs.

From: Beendare
09-Mar-25
"Tell me how Trump's inflationary policies of tariffs, tax cuts, and reducing the labor supply is going to result in lower interest rates any time soon?"

I've tried to explain it to you....and you just aren't getting it. BTW, hilarious how your question is worded. You refer to ridding our country of Venezuelan gang members as, "Reducing the labor supply" OMG, thats too dang funny.

I've seen intentional mischaracterizations but that one takes the cake.

What tax cut went into place? none

What tariff? A couple in fits and starts as a negotiating ploy to cure inequities

What "Labor Supply" did he reduce? I don't know the national stats but it's the same illegals/terrorists/ gang members that we spent over $9 billion in CA to support.

Again, Trump is barely into his term and has to unravel 4 years of horrible policy....he is starting all of these various negotiations as a bully and hard ass. I would recommend sitting back and benefitting from that.....

From: spike78
09-Mar-25
Powell doesn’t want to lower rates due to inflation so Trump is hurting the jobs market which Powell is also responsible for so it would force the Fed to lower rates. Also from what I heard people are leaving the markets to buy bonds which would also lower rates. I guess Reagan used the same tactic with great success.

From: bigeasygator
11-Mar-25
I've tried to explain it to you....and you just aren't getting it.

No you haven't. You haven't come close to explaining anything, Beendare. You regurgitate partisan talking points, and that generally aren't even on topic (like talking about delinquency rates of sub-prime auto loans). Or you talk about national security issues that are not related to the economy or the points I raised above.

What tax cut went into place? none

I didn't say that have. I said he is advocating for tax cuts, that will put inflationary pressures into the market. Are you suggesting tax cuts aren't a big part of his economic plans?

What "Labor Supply" did he reduce?

You have spent literally years talking about how the job and economic growth has been a function of expansion of the immigrant work force - both documented and undocumented workers. Now you're going to attempt to argue they haven't been a significant contributor to the labor force? Hilarious.

I would recommend sitting back and benefitting from that.....

Consumer confidence with the biggest drop since the Great Recession, negative GDP, unquestionably an uptick in unemployment coming our way, policy uncertainty and paralysis in the capital markets, $4 TRILLION in eroded equity value in the S&P alone since Trump has started enacting his agenda.

I hope these are blips, and I do believe the economy is resilient and will withstand the shocks driven by the Trump administration. But it's worth reiterating: Trump was elected on his promise to "fix" the economy - by every metric he's made it worse.

From: CaptMike
11-Mar-25
But, but… presidents don’t have any power. Lol! Makes it difficult to know which mouth you are talking from.

From: Beendare
11-Mar-25
Ugh oh....Trump haters and Tariff naysayers heads are going to explode.

Add another big investment to the list......Siemens just announced a $10 Billion dollar investment in the US.....

From: bigeasygator
11-Mar-25
Add another big investment to the list......Siemens just announced a $10 Billion dollar investment in the US.....

What do tariffs have to do with this? The answer is nothing. Also, these investments weren't just announced. The bulk of that comes from their purchase of Altair, which was announced last year before Trump was even elected.

If you want to make a point, Beendare, you should do the research and decide whether your evidence actually backs up that point.

From: buckhammer
11-Mar-25
So what did Capt. Chaos say or do today to tank the markets? I am not sure how much more of this winning I can take.

From: bigeasygator
11-Mar-25
I'd say much of it is the continued souring of the economic mood driven by his policies, but specifically today he doubled down on steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada (literally) and threatened to drastically increase tariffs on cars after Ontario responded with tariffs on electricity.

Weird he didn't mention fentanyl...wonder if they've completely abandoned that lie at this point?

From: SuaSponte
11-Mar-25
Pushed and sold some things in preparation for this market adjustment. DJT all but told us what he was going to do and what could occur.

To sit on our hands and do nothing then cry that things change is not a strategy

Actually Siemens Corp USA laid groundwork for Texas in 2019.

Truth be told Siemens is a-huge DEI touter. They saw what is happening and the shifts in the US’s policies. There is only one reason why Siemens is rushing into Mi with lifecycle AI generated software. US Auto has a huge priblem with how to get rid of junk EVs that are full of Hazmat. What happens when the GVT steps in and starts funding EV subsidies and creating mandates. You can bet Ford wishes it did not put the EV cart before the gas Horse power. .

Cunnucks threaten to shut down power to USA today.

Tariffs on their Steel and Alum back to 50%.

From: scent
11-Mar-25
The dems manned a raft in quiet waters knowing their map route led to choppy rapids, now Trump is left with the task of throwing things off the raft to keep it on course... it isn't pretty but will pay off in the future.

From: Huntcell
11-Mar-25
A master class of “The Art of the Deal” unfolding before our very eyes!

From: SuaSponte
11-Mar-25
Did the Canada’s hit your state with power tax? HC…?

Funny how some of our Americans in the border states like NY MI VT ME Wis just live a little further north they would be paying over 50% in income taxes in some cases. Their cost of living be much more if they were as well.

From: CaptMike
11-Mar-25
"Weird he didn't mention fentanyl...wonder if they've completely abandoned that lie at this point?" You must have been ass deep Googling as you missed Karoline Leavitt's presser today. That fentanyl is a "lie" to you highlights your TDS.

From: Beendare
11-Mar-25
How can anyone with a modicum of intelligence not understand?

The US gov is seriously Effed up due to Democrat policy; DEI and Marxist type regulation. Then there is massive horrible spending on climate initiatives that anyone with 1/2 a brain realizes its like spitting in the ocean- especially when other countries like China are cranking out Coal fired power plants every day [more than 1100 currently]. The Obiden policy was virtue signaling and like wearing hunting boots in a 100yd dash race. .

Sorry for sounding like I'm instructing a 6th grader here....but Its going to take awhile to unwind all of the Obiden destruction with some tough negotiations to fix it all - more than 8 weeks for sure, eh?

Why do the liberals of the US never admit the fact that the Biden shadow admin is to blame for royally screwed things up necessitating these drastic measures?

The simple facts; Most of the promised foreign investment in the US during the Biden Admin is because he was PAYING THEM to come with huge incentives. [Much like their vote buying strategy of using taxpayer dollars to boost the Dem politicians.]

From: scent
11-Mar-25
Our power from the Falls and river goes to NYC and we get it from Ontario... WTF, we between the shit and shovel and there ain't much room there.

From: bigeasygator
11-Mar-25
but Its going to take awhile to unwind all of the Obiden destruction with some tough negotiations to fix it all

You realize the latest round of Trump flip-flopping and teeth gnashing is with Canada - a country that HE HIMSELF negotiated our current trade deals with.

The reality is that all of the economic uncertainty and chaos is a direct function of Trump's approach. This notion that he has to "break it to fix it" is a fantasy and a justification for what is just poor policy.

No doubt he thinks his policy is great - that tariffs are a panacea that are going to allow us to raise funds to pay down debt, re-negotiated trade deals, onshore jobs, and balance trade. The problem is tariffs cannot do all of those things (many of those aspirations are actually contradictory) and they carry much more economic downside - you're seeing that play out real time.

From: SuaSponte
11-Mar-25
Who’ops. Canada energy tariffs off now. The 50% Steel and Alum was enough for them and the new Canadian Gov had to relent. Took a whole 12hrs.

From: Ambush
11-Mar-25
^^^ Sounds to me like Trump blinked and backed down. He had some good things to say about Ford and said ”let’s talk”.

I know that’s hard on your TWS

From: bigeasygator
11-Mar-25
Canada energy tariffs off. The 50% Steel and Alum was enough for them and the new Canadian Gov had to relent. Took a whole 12hrs.

And more unnecessary chaos and uncertainty to end up right back in the same place we were. This is winning?

From: SuaSponte
11-Mar-25
Not bya long shot. Canadia-stan still has massive tariffs on US goods into the hundreds of %. Some by rolling quota.

Its really moot since in a few weeks all is going reciprocal. There is no earthly reason for Cunnucks not to just go full reciprocal? You can jump up and down….. There dollar is worth 62 usd. They want to be in Nato but pay only 1.8% gdp. Have high cost of living, high tax rates, weapon laws like the EU.

I was in Bn Fob in RC South during GWOT. We had to take back the sector from Canada. The AO was death on a stick right out the ECP. They had made a deal with the Taliban. “ you dont fight us , we wont fight you”. Great way to impose your will! Cost us a lotta good USA lives and $$$$ to fix the place. Basically when they left this FOB looked like it was a broke down refugee camp.

Forgive me if i dont cotton to anything Canadian. Making a parle with the enemy was good fit for them i guess?

From: Ambush
11-Mar-25
^^^ Little wonder you need so many aliases. You’re way too full of shit for just one.

From: SuaSponte
12-Mar-25
Yeah well tell yer story walkin. Fob Z -Bad was so pfukd up after you guys occupied for years. Never did any night ops, never killed any enemy boogers and got blown the hell up every other day in same places.

Counter insurgency Ops little different than piling into WW1 trenches and dying from mustard gas artillery my friend.

I wouldn't spend a US plug nickel in the GWN. Not that youz bad folks just have bad infected/elected leaders.

HBC really went bankrupt due to DJT uncertainty? Oldest Co in Cunnuck land? Let me guess the taxpayer up there going pay for the saving of the Co? Laugh laugh, cry cry give ya an RC Coke and a Moonpie.

From: scent
12-Mar-25
BEG, is there any decision Trump can make to better our country that you can agree with? So far any decision he makes is portrayed as sinister or or send us into WW3 from the left

From: bigeasygator
12-Mar-25
BEG, is there any decision Trump can make to better our country that you can agree with?

Any decision he makes to better our country I agree with. I just happen to think a lot of what he’s doing (a lot, not everything) is not bettering our country, particularly in the space of the economy.

I’ve been discussing this topic for quite some time on this thread, particularly as so many people on here wanted to argue that the economy was bad or broken. We keep going down this path you’re going to see what bad and broken looks like. And let me be even more clear - that sentiment is in no way, shape, or form an endorsement of the last administration, which I also thought was awful.

From: scent
12-Mar-25
I liken the past administration as a septic tank that hasn't been serviced in a long time... finally the waste is seeping out of the ground and you now see a problem... in comes the new maintenance service and decide the best fix is to back hoe and clean it once and for all... in the process it's a wet muddy mess, in the end you plant some grass seed watch it grow and your good for a long while. Biden and his handlers were no show landlords that let millions of illegals in that ended up taxing state and local governments leading to ruining any positive economy.

12-Mar-25
Many of the things being said now about Trumps handling of the economy were said at the beginning of his first term (by the same people) and they were pretty much all shown to be largely inaccurate. I suspect the same is true now.

What Trump is attempting to do takes time and will likely cause short term discomfort in a variety of areas. People elected him to make radical changes, not mess around at the edges, and that is exactly what he is attempting to do. I want a better country for our children and grandchildren and if a total reset in terms of what "free trade" means is what it takes...so be it.

From: SD
12-Mar-25
Big, I thought you liked the previous administration's economy? I think I remember you saying the US had the strongest post-pandemic economy in the world, that inflation was good, and that your personal wage increases outpaced inflation. Was that not the case? If so why is that administration's economy now awful? And for the record, I really hope we do not have to see what bad and broken feels like. That uncertainty that is being felt by the markets and big corporations is also being felt by individuals. I don't like worrying about what the financial future brings.

From: SuaSponte
12-Mar-25
Trump won cuz Obidenomics was killing us.

Now you’re saying how bad Bidenomics were. Next we will hear how Gvt having huge agencies with plush federal workers, big gvt are great for the economy. That was Bidenomics. These kind if people will never go for supply side economy, never.

Huge Gvt the employs everyone and runs everything is great for them i guess.

Good thing the employment rate is at 95% or more.

Joe and Heels Up ran nation and picked winners and losers by fiat.

Now Harris wants a shot at Cali. I say if CA votes her as Gov they better be prepared to go it alone on alot of funding.

From: bigeasygator
12-Mar-25
Big, I thought you liked the previous administration's economy? I think I remember you saying the US had the strongest post-pandemic economy in the world, that inflation was good, and that your personal wage increases outpaced inflation. Was that not the case? If so why is that administration's economy now awful?

I did say it’s good - that many of the leading and lagging indicators were trending in the right direction and that our economy is still the envy of the world. That’s still my opinion.

What I’ve never said is that it’s a result of anything the prior administration did. IMO it was largely in spite of them, not because of them.

Again, most people react to every headline and don’t fundamentally have the foundational knowledge in economics, finance, or business to critically think through the impact of policy decisions. Biden was like a lot of his predecessors - a lot of bark, not a lot of bite. They take headline grabbing actions that don’t have any meaningful consequence to the economy - like banning oil drilling in places no one wants to drill for oil. Trump is taking a different approach.

From: SuaSponte
12-Mar-25
EU, Canada and few other nations going fight this all way to $ for $ tariffs. They not going to give up the free $ they been getting all these years.

Like the way Pete Navarro lays it out. BLUF.

Be interesting to see what occurs after he first week of April.

From: SuaSponte
12-Mar-25

SuaSponte's Link
Just going to get a CCW.

From: SD
12-Mar-25
That makes sense Big. Thanks.

From: spike78
12-Mar-25
Sua the tariff’s aren’t a bluff he is trying to tank the economy to reset and crank back up.

From: SuaSponte
12-Mar-25
For sure not a bluff. EU and Canada can not run their Gvts with Even tariffs. They count on this free US trade $.

They are going to pull out every Stalin , Hitler apocalypse story.

If it goes tit for tat with EU they cant hold out. The wealthy nation states will eventually have to bail on the Euro as these countries who just rely on Germany France to hang on as is now.

They will all jump the TDS, MDS bus….

13-Mar-25
For those that are against Trump's use of tariffs, do you feel the same way about other countries imposing tariffs on the US?

From: bigeasygator
13-Mar-25
For those that are against Trump's use of tariffs, do you feel the same way about other countries imposing tariffs on the US?

Yes.

From: scent
13-Mar-25
That's why he's doing what he's doing Jason.

13-Mar-25
"Yes."

So how would you suggest we achieve reciprocity? Ask them nicely?

From: SD
13-Mar-25
I'm guessing tariffs aren't 100% bad. A ton of countries use them, many of which we do business with. In what situation is a tariff justified, or good for a country?

From: SuaSponte
13-Mar-25
We gave lots of Western EU countries great deals after the Big One. Time now to stand on their own.

If tariffs were bad any nations economy they would not be used so widely.

From: buckhammer
13-Mar-25
The biggest threat this country faces as it relates to our economy is the chaos sown everyday by Trump. There is no clear articulate plan. Everyday it is on again off again with the threat of tariffs.

If he thinks he can just bully other countries in to doing things his way he is going to be mighty disappointed. Strength comes through words less spoken.

The uncertainty created by Trump as it relates to his economic policies will make and are making the American consumer cautious with their spending. Which will lead us straight to a recession.

When citizens vote many issues are at the fore front. This last election social issues and immigration were 2 of the main issues but ultimately people vote their pocket books and how well they perceive the economy is doing. It is and will always be "It's the economy, stupid."

From: CaptMike
13-Mar-25
Words mean nothing when there is nothing to back up the words.

From: Bob H in NH
13-Mar-25
Trump shouts and blusters. Rubio and others are in the background talking and pushing deals. This works because trump isn't bluffing

From: bigeasygator
13-Mar-25
i>So how would you suggest we achieve reciprocity? Ask them nicely?

Of course you're being sarcastic with the "ask them nicely" comment, but in short - yes. You act like a trade deal has never been made without first having to start a trade war. In the end, I much prefer the carrot to the stick.

buckhammer gets it. The reality is there isn't even a coherent plan, and that's what's spooking the markets and the economy. One day tariffs are on, then they're off. One day it's about fentanyl, then it's about fairer trade deals, then it's about raising revenue to balance the budget - multiple goals that are actually contradictory in nature. Not only is it impacting consumers, businesses have no idea how to plan or what to expect in the short or long term.

I'm guessing tariffs aren't 100% bad

Tariffs are "good" in the same way taxes and subsidies are "good."

13-Mar-25
"The biggest threat this country faces as it relates to our economy is the chaos sown everyday by Trump. There is no clear articulate plan."

This is where I think you and I disagree. I actually think there is a clear articulate plan"...just not articulated to you, and BEG, and many others like you that think Trump is a bumbling fool. In any negotiation process you NEVER let the opposition know what your exact plan is...unless of course you want to be taken to the cleaners...Just like we have been for decades.

Furthermore, regarding "clear articulate plans."

Like the great philosopher Mike Tyson once said...

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."

Once that happens, you have to call an audible.

13-Mar-25
"In the end, I much prefer the carrot to the stick."

So do I. Unfortunately, the carrot has been tried unsuccessfully for decades.

From: Mint
13-Mar-25
Well Trump's plan has already seen record investment from some of our biggest companies but I do think he should stop with Canada being the 51st state. It was funny the first time but now it's beaten to death.

From: Ambush
13-Mar-25
Are most of you getting the idea that "we've been getting ripped off by every country for years" from Trump's pressers? I listen live to them, and it's obvious he just makes numbers up in his head and nobody dares or cares to correct him. ($100ml for condoms for Hamas?) As far as trade, every trade deal with the US has been negotiated by the US. How is it possible that they're all so lopsided? Are you that easy to bamboozle?

From: SuaSponte
13-Mar-25
What's your tax rate at 150k in your Province?

Bet ours is lower here. Bet i can go anywhere in nation and get an elective surgery in 30 days or less.

From: Ambush
13-Mar-25
^^^ Well since you wouldn’t know taters from turds, I’m betting trying to explain apples and oranges would be impossible.

13-Mar-25

Ricky The Cabel Guy's Link
Interesting take from Victor Davis Hanson.

Yep…high time to put the carrots away and get out the stick.

From: SuaSponte
13-Mar-25
Does not quite answer the question

VDH is good.

From: Ambush
13-Mar-25
Sua, your time might be better spent on some self help websites to figure out why you need to keep making up new aliases after being banned repeatedly. (hint: it’s you)

Spend way less time gobbling up the little shitballs from the clickbait sites that algorithms flood your computer with.

And maybe show the same respect for Canadian soldiers that had their arms and legs blown off, that bled and died right next to US forces as you imagine you deserve.

You are that guy in real life, that when you walk into the coffee shop, all your friends are “ just leaving” even though it’s looks like they just got a fresh coffee. Hint: again, it’s you.

And maybe back off a little on your ridiculously exaggerated military comic book persona. But it probably does impress about five people here.

From: SuaSponte
13-Mar-25
Hahaha

I know the dirt i lived in my friend. Never forgot where i came from or where i tread.

You keep chokin on those small bones. Hard to feast on the truth. You live under the blanket of Sec we have provided for 200yrs. Munch on that.

I respect all who served their nation under arms. You-had to be there. Have sen plenty men who gave it all, some who gave large pieces. So, yer shame game means little coming from your comfy fart cushion.

13-Mar-25
There are men that do. And, there are men that talk about doing. We’ve had a vast majority of talkers as leaders. Now we have the kryptonite of talkers. A do’er and a talker. My how the talkers hate that.

From: SuaSponte
13-Mar-25
Not shy about temembering dirt time. Did it half my life.

Lost some good guys from AK that had to unphuk Fob ZBad in RC South. Was Panjawai Province. They grew Mary J there and humped it and sold it in Paki. Dope as far as you could see. $ for the Taliterds.

Can RGT had no deep water well, 7-8 yr old tents, rats everywhere. They gave their battlespace to the Taliban . Did no night Ops, did not own any Rtes in or out.

Lost a bunch of great men getting place Gee’d up. Put a Cmdo Rgt in there, 3rd Grp A and B team, Bn of Strykers. Raid tower, bigger LZ. Was still a shithole but hey it is Boogerville.

Big difference was there were no deals with the boogers other than killing them.

From: bigeasygator
13-Mar-25
Interesting take from Victor Davis Hanson.

I’ll add this guy to the list that of people that doesn’t understand trade.

From: CaptMike
14-Mar-25
Sleazy, when you and your opinion are valued enough to see you as an invited guest on one of the most viewed networks you might carry a bit more credibility. Until then, you only continue to showcase your TDS by simply attempting to disparage perspectives you do not agree with. It is one of your biggest character flaws. You think you are smarter than others but you are unable to prove it. Pathetic lil’ fella you are.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
Yet another example of why CaptMike represents all that is broken in this country.

Just because you are asked to come tall on TV (and I’m guessing this guy probably shows up on Fox News) doesn’t make you qualified to talk about a subject.

I googled this guy - his bio says he’s a classicist, military historian, and conservative political commentator.

I see no background in economics - academic or real world. He’s worked as a professor and a writer and I see no experience in business or finance - he hasn’t led a company, made decisions on how to allocate capital, or run any operations from what I can see.

The way he treats the trade balance it’s clear what he is - he’s a biased politico who’s parroting the same partisan crap coming from the administration. So not really sure why I should care about this guy’s opinion, but I know y’all are addicted to that confirmation bias.

14-Mar-25
"I see no background in economics - academic or real world."

Trump has a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has spent the last 50 years engaged in a variety of "real world" international businesses, and has a net worth of somewhere between $5-$10 billion dollars. Even so, you seem to think he knows nothing about economics...apparently not as much as you.

How does your resume compare?

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
Well, I have an MBA from the Booth School at the University of Chicago. I’ve spent my career supporting major oil and gas developments working for a major oil company in a variety of capacities (as an engineer and multiple leadership roles) - from managing production, to running R&D programs, to maturing projects that cost billions of dollars.

So while I don’t have Daddy’s money to buy real estate or bankrupt casinos, I’ll put my knowledge of markets and the economy up against Trump (the man who thinks foreign countries pay tariffs and who doesn’t view lower prices and Drill baby drill as mutually exclusive ideas) any day.

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25
Think everything was brioke since 2020 the third Obummer term.

Saying VDH is not not worthy is like saying Thomas Sowell was a kook or William F Buckley Jr was just blabbering fool. Some folks will never get it.

From: Mike in CT
14-Mar-25
Poor comparison; both Thomas Sowell and William F. Buckley Jr have degrees in economics and have established their bona fides over decades. The point that was made is that unlike those two, Victor Davis Hanson does not have the same foundational knowledge.

14-Mar-25
"Well, I have an MBA from the Booth School at the University of Chicago."

So unlike Trump, you have no degree in economics, I'm assuming (correct me if I'm wrong) you've never actually owned a business, never been elected to any public office let alone POTUS, never been sought after by major media outlets to speak or write on any subject, your only audience, as it were, is a group of bowhunters...most of which don't agree with much of what you say.

Many companies...including some of the most successful in the world, have filed for bankruptcy...more than likely including the one you work for...numerous times...for a variety of reasons.

Lastly, there are very few companies that haven't borrowed money from family, banks, and private equity to get started and operate.

Yet somehow...because you have an internet connection and can access google...you think you know more about economics and trade than Trump, Lutnick, Bessent, and Greer.

Got it.

From: Ambush
14-Mar-25
Is Warren Buffet qualified to offer expert opinion?

From: Mike in CT
14-Mar-25
Ricky,

Have you ever looked into what coursework goes into obtaining an MBA?

Most programs have this for example:

Core Courses: Accounting: Covers financial accounting, managerial accounting, and financial statement analysis. Finance: Explores financial management, investments, and corporate finance. Marketing: Focuses on marketing strategy, consumer behavior, and digital marketing. Operations Management: Examines supply chain management, logistics, and process improvement. Leadership and Organizational Behavior: Covers leadership styles, team dynamics, and organizational culture. Economics and Statistics: Provides a foundation in economic principles and statistical analysis. Business Law and Ethics: Explores legal and ethical issues in business. Strategy: Focuses on developing and implementing business strategies.

I think completing an MBA from a good school certainly offers one the foundational knowledge to render an opinion on this particular topic.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
So unlike Trump, you have no degree in economics

No, as I said I have an MBA from a Booth, which I'm happy to hold up against a bachelor's in economics from a lower rated institution.

more than likely including the one you work for...numerous times...for a variety of reasons.

It hasn't.

Yet somehow...because you have an internet connection and can access google...you think you know more about economics and trade than Trump, Lutnick, Bessent, and Greer.

LOL, nice try. No, it's because I've what I've learned - via my schooling, via on the job learning, and via my own research. Not because of google. Ideologically, the opinions of thinkers like Friedman, Fama, and Becker resonate most with me. In terms of current policy, I put much more faith in Wall Street and the C-suite's opinions on what's best for the economy than I do Trump's and the yes men that he's brought into his administration.

14-Mar-25
"I think completing an MBA from a good school certainly offers one the foundational knowledge to render an opinion on this particular topic."

I didn't say otherwise. I simply said from a comparison standpoint...Trump's resume is much more impressive.

In addition to that, anyone with "real world" experience would know that bankruptcy isn't necessarily indication of poor business acumen (often just the opposite)...nor is borrowing money from family for a startup.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
Is Warren Buffet qualified to offer expert opinion?

Unequivocally, yes.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
I didn't say otherwise

You certainly alluded to it by pointing out I don't have an undergraduate degree in economics.

If you polled executives, bankers, or anyone else whose opinion matters on this what degree - a bachelors in economics from an Ivy or an MBA from a top an M7 school - is more valuable and meaningful in the context of business, finance, and the economy I can almost guarantee you their answer won't be an undergrad economics degree.

14-Mar-25
"It hasn't."

Really? What "major oil company" do/did you work for?

I'd be willing to bet any amount of money that the company has had acquisitions and/or subsidiaries or divisions that have been spun off, reorganized, or filed for bankruptcy.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
I'd be willing to bet any amount of money that the company has had acquisitions and/or subsidiaries or divisions that have been spun off, reorganized, or filed for bankruptcy.

That's not what you said. You said and I quote "Many companies...more than likely including the one you work for…have filed for bankruptcy...numerous times." I don't work for any subsidiaries or spinoffs.

So tell me how many times Shell, Chevron, or Exxon has filed for bankruptcy.

From: CaptMike
14-Mar-25
Sleaze, you are very psychologically fragile. You constantly and consistently twist and contort anything said to you so as to allow yourself to feel you are correct. Very sad.

From: Mike in CT
14-Mar-25
Mike,

I don't think you can label as "twist and contort" a direct quote from the poster being responded to.

On the other hand, going from: "Many companies...including some of the most successful in the world, have filed for bankruptcy...more than likely including the one you work for...numerous times...for a variety of reasons."

to: "I'd be willing to bet any amount of money that the company has had acquisitions and/or subsidiaries or divisions that have been spun off, reorganized, or filed for bankruptcy." certainly qualifies at minimum as moving the goalposts.

I, like I hope everyone here, have no problem with honest arguments; it's those of the dishonest variety I take issue with.

From: Beendare
14-Mar-25
No MBA here....just been on the front lines running real world small businesses for 4 decades.

Victor David Hanson has been right on the money for a long time....a good source.

From: CaptMike
14-Mar-25
Mike, it was not made in reference just to that comment. It was much more in overall summary of my perspective of his comments. Opinions on issues can and do vary, but a habitual pattern of condescension is evident, at least in my eyes. You always seem to be able to make a point and present a perspective without talking down to anyone.

14-Mar-25
"On the other hand, going from: "Many companies...including some of the most successful in the world, have filed for bankruptcy...more than likely including the one you work for...numerous times...for a variety of reasons."

to: "I'd be willing to bet any amount of money that the company has had acquisitions and/or subsidiaries or divisions that have been spun off, reorganized, or filed for bankruptcy." certainly qualifies at minimum as moving the goalposts."

With all due respect, I didn't move the goal posts at all. I believe it was a fair comparison to Trump. Some of Trump's businesses filed for bankruptcy but many did not...nor has Trump ever filed for personal bankruptcy.

Take his casinos for example. While they filed for bankruptcy, the entire Trump Organization did not. The casinos were just one part of the Trump organization. No different than any large company using bankruptcy laws. I have zero doubt that while Shell, Chevron, or Exxon have not filed bankruptcy...companies owned by them most certainly have. Just like Trump.

From: Mint
14-Mar-25
You guys crack me up, AOC has an Economics degree from Boston college. I think it has been proven time and again a lot of the IVY League schools courses are taught by outright socialists and would never teach a course about what Thomas Sowell preached. I think Trump put together a great team and I agree with him that we need FAIR TRADE. In regards to bankruptcy, you are talking about Atlantic City, that place should be a winner like Las Vegas but it is totally corrupt and a complete sh!th@le. Trump thought he could make it work and when he couldn't he got out. It's a shame because now with casino's everywhere AC doesn't stand a chance.

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25
But but VDH is not in league with Sowell. Please…….

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25
About every Dem “economist” on the MSM has been gloom and doom about DJT and his teams plan. Just bitter terds.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
With all due respect, I didn't move the goal posts at all

With all due respect, you did.

Nonetheless, find me a Shell operating unit or wholly owned subsidiary of Shell that’s ever declared bankruptcy.

14-Mar-25

Ricky The Cabel Guy's Link
"Nonetheless, find me a Shell operating unit or wholly owned subsidiary of Shell that’s ever declared bankruptcy."

I have zero desire to go down this rabbit hole with you because it will never end, but I did a 2 minute search and came up with the one example at the link.

Having said that, even the notion that none of those three companies have never had one of their subsidiaries go bankrupt in their history is laughable. I just don't care enough to spend any time researching it.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
You do realize liquidation is not the same as bankruptcy, right? Or maybe you don’t…

It’s ok to admit you’re wrong, again, Ricky.

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25
Yeah cuz profitable companies get liquidated and turn profits.

Hahaha You go to school of the limp noodles?

So, with that logic you should buy all the Boots Walgreens stock you can now.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25

bigeasygator's Link
Shell exited Russia after the invasion of Ukraine for political reasons, not because of issues of profitability, Shawn. Those assets were highly profitable, hence the multi billion dollar write down of them.

14-Mar-25

Ricky The Cabel Guy's embedded Photo
Ricky The Cabel Guy's embedded Photo
”You do realize liquidation is not the same as bankruptcy, right?”

I knew this would go down a rabbit hole, it always does with you.

For the purpose of this conversation I believe it is a distinction without a difference. The point is, and always was, some of the most intelligent and successful business people have businesses that fail.

You’re welcome to have the last word.

I just hope the powers that be are able to find you and take advantage of your superior intellect. The global economy desperately needs you.

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25
He should get sen Pauls staff but i think the KY boy would laugh his butt off.

From: bigeasygator
14-Mar-25
You’re welcome to have the last word.

Mighty kind of you Ricky.

While bankruptcies involve liquidation, not all liquidations are a result of bankruptcies.

As I pointed out, the liquidation in question is the result of a country exit and involves the subsequent liquidation of company assets and has ZERO to do with bankruptcy/insolvency. It is about who has a right to Shell’s assets after they’ve exited.

Anything else you wanna try and google real quick, Ricky? Or do you want to keep taking us down rabbit holes?

From: SuaSponte
14-Mar-25
Blahahaha

Takes a dictionary to plug that cake hole.

From: Mint
15-Mar-25
TDS is a real and growing mental disease.

From: bigeasygator
15-Mar-25
I see a pattern. When you have nothing of substance to add, can’t refute any of the arguments, and are lacking critical thinking skills, go ahead and throw out the literal “Trump card” - TDS.

It’s laughable.

From: CaptMike
15-Mar-25
Freudian slip. Sleaze accuses others of “Googling.”

From: Ambush
15-Mar-25
Can we now agree that fentanyl on the northern border was just a red herring to enable Trump to circumvent congress via "security"? In the last month more was seized coming north than going south.

From: CaptMike
15-Mar-25
Cookies become more desirable when the hand in the cookie jar gets slapped.

From: bigeasygator
15-Mar-25
Can we now agree that fentanyl on the northern border was just a red herring to enable Trump to circumvent congress via "security"?

It was obvious from day one. Trump has been vocal about accomplishing multiple things with tariffs (most of them contradictory). If fentanyl was the only justification, he wouldn’t be talking about how they’re going to balance the budget, bring back manufacturing, make trade more fair, help with child care costs, and make us rich.

From: Ambush
15-Mar-25
So CaptMike, you're ok when your President uses deception and misrepresentation in order to circumvent your elected representatives??

You just spent the last four years vehemently protesting that?!!? .

From: SuaSponte
15-Mar-25
Trump never ever talked about balanced budgets.

Day one….. He was tariffing in 2017.

Border shutdown took 5 weeks.

Presidents cant effect economy, borders, security. RIGHT…….

More Libtardian Slips

From: CaptMike
15-Mar-25
Ambush, he broke no laws. We always have the ability to vote for those who would change laws we do not agree with. He IS my elected representative.

From: bigeasygator
15-Mar-25

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
Trump never ever talked about balanced budgets.

LOL what?? He talks about it weekly.

From: SuaSponte
15-Mar-25
Thats after election. Been to J6 to J13.

He never in rally ever talked about budgets. He knew he was going to spend post Covid $ to unphuk Obiden.

MAGAA gonna cost trillions. Moving out millions of illegals. If you cant even connect those dots. Your Lubtardian disease is untreatable

From: bigeasygator
15-Mar-25
No clue wtf you’re saying, Shawn. Someone wanna translate this incoherence?

From: Ambush
15-Mar-25
CaptMike, thanks for confirming your extreme TWS. It’s always good to have an example to point to.

You’re that guy that if you saw Trump going into the little girls change room wearing nothing but a trench coat with Taylor Swift merch hanging out of the pockets, you’d exclaim, “That’s my president going in to protect the children from the tranny’s!”

From: SuaSponte
15-Mar-25

SuaSponte's embedded Photo
SuaSponte's embedded Photo
Elon for POTUS 2028

We move Libtards off Earth. Cheaper than USA to be overrun by the Jung Horde.

From: CaptMike
15-Mar-25
Bushy, get a grip. If you cannot be on point, keep your hand closed. A stupid comment like yours only shows your estrogen level to be elevated.

From: Ambush
15-Mar-25
^^^ Hahaha! So I’m right.

From: SuaSponte
15-Mar-25
Whats Cunnuckistan going to do come April 4 when Reciprocal Tariff's start.

Raise , up ante, what?

Sign Trade deal with Chyna?

I pay double for American goods, lumber, steel, medications, food. Hell, ide Mexican trk parts before Can sh!t. Mexico gonna suk it up. Cunnuckis going cry and go all Libtard and beg EU for a warm reach around.

From: Ambush
15-Mar-25
^^^^^ You shouldn’t let your mind wander. It’s way too small to be out by itself.

From: CaptMike
15-Mar-25
Funny how the spoiled brat talks when told he needs to get a job. Accountability my boy. As you grow up, you will learn you have to do for yourself. Parents (or neighbors) will not baby sit you forever.

16-Mar-25
"Elon for POTUS 2028"

Not possible.

From: SuaSponte
20-Mar-25

SuaSponte's Link
Eu wanted to target GoP state products!

Nice try…..

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