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Montana Ranches's Link
Odds of 410 Tag out of state archery
Hoping someone might be able to tell me the odds of out of state draw for archery elk? I think it is way low but hoping someone can direct me.
go to the FWP web page and click on the hunting link and drawing statistics will come up, I tried to post it as a link but for some reason it wouldn't work,
There is no specific drawing for nonresident archery elk. The nonresident elk license has been a pretty sure thing for the past few years. To archery hunt, you merely obtain an archery stamp to do so. You must have an archery stamp from another state where you have bow hunted or take the Montana archery education course.There are specific elk hunting permits which must be drawn for certain hunting districts to archery hunt in the particular district. Is your question regarding a statewide elk license or a permit for a specific hunting district?
'Sorry just saw the heading of your query ... re: HD 410. In 2015 there were 1900 permits for archery only in HD 410, with 2663 archers applying, for about a 71% chance of drawing. No numbers were published for nonresident only, so you will have to contact and question the right person with FWP in Helena to get any idea of nonresident chances. 'Not very helpful, but that's it.
Out of the 1900 permits 90% go to resident and 10% go to nonresidents. If residents do not take the 90% then the rest go to nonresidents. That makes it hard to figure out the chance of drawing for the nonresident or the resident unless you know the numbers of each applying.
In 2015 18.8% of non-residents with zero bonus points drew this tag, 38.5% drew with 1 bonus point, and 53.7% drew with 2 bonus points. Resident hunters with no bonus points were at about 85%, and jumping up to 96% and 100% with 1 and 2 points, respectively.
I don't know why any non-resident would pay what the state charges for a non-resident elk tag to hunt the Breaks these days. Hunting pressure is unreal.
"I don't know why any non-resident would pay what the state charges for a non-resident elk tag to hunt the Breaks these days. Hunting pressure is unreal."
I agree 100% with your statement. That said, I'm guilty of doing that very thing.
Bowhunting elk in the Breaks is on my bucket list. Due to the cost of building points, it will almost certainly be a once in a lifetime event. With three points going in, 2017 is a real possibility. Haven't decided on a unit yet...but trying to find out as much as possible about the eastern end of the Breaks....both north and south of the lake. Planning to spend some serious phone time over the winter with CO's and biologists. If anyone has any info they are willing to share on 631, 632 or 700 (798 archery), I would certainly appreciate a PM.
Lots of hunters on public lands and your ability to hunt with good road access will be determined by weather, especially rain. As a nonresident, with limited ability to draw tags, I would look into a private land unit 410 elk hunt with an outfitter or landowner, well worth the money.
Took me 3 yrs to draw this year,,,,,,,,,,,,, 6x7 367....... I did run into a guy from Mich. that drew this year and it was his first year to apply.
just checked drawing stats for 2015 and there were 190 apps for NR 1st choice in 410and 185 successful NR 1st choice so looks to be pretty good
MR not trying to run you out of 410, but if you are young enough there are a lot better places to hunt than 410. there is approx 3000 head in 410, about 1800 of them you can't hunt unless you pay, that leaves 1200 you can hunt and there are 1900 bowhunters, doesn't sound good. that said you will see and hear elk, open country, good luck. sorry you are about 30 years too late, it use to be a paradise when there was about 8000 head and 600 bowhunters.
Sbschindler if that's the case I must know all five of the nonresidents that didn't draw. I know of a few groups that have three preference points trying to draw 410. There must be more apps than that.
I'm seeing 185 successful NR applicants out of 631 total 1st choice NR applicants in 2015.
Montana Ranches's Link
Yep I see it now, 631 1st choice apps and 185 successful, for a 29 0r 30 % chance the 190 figure I had was the quota not the apps
Thanks guys for the info. It was very helpful! Seems odds are not as bad as some have been saying but I will call FWP.