Question about the draw.
New Mexico
Can someone please explain to me how a particular hunt code that has 200 total tags and 800 first choice applicants, can still have people drawing the hunt on their 2nd and 3rd choices? Why wouldn’t the first choice applicants get all the tags?
Is it because there can be up to four people on an application with differing hunt choices for First, second and third, etc?
No. It all depends on where you are in the draw. So if you are drawn in the top 5% there is a good chance you will get your first choice. If you are drawn at the 50% mark odds start working against you. As a resident for archery if you're drawn around the top 25% dang good chance you will get a tag. When your ticket is pulled and your 1st choice is filled they move on to 2nd and 3rd, if they are filled you're SOL.
With the above scenario you present the people who drew on 2nd and 3rd choice had very low odds 1st choice in place. So lets say their 1st choice had roughly 2% odds, they have to be one of first drawn to receive that tag, their 1st choice quickly becomes null and 2nd and 3rd choices are in play.
Everyone gets drawn, but its all about where you are drawn relative to others that determines if you get a tag. This is what makes determining NM odds difficult.
It's how NM does the draw. Each app is assigned a number through a random shuffle. Once that has happened, the apps are sorted to appear in order of what the random number was assigned.
The 50,000th app can be assigned "#1" and be the first one looked at. If an app, when it comes up in this stage of the draw, has it's first choice filled up, it automatically goes to the 2nd choice.
Your 1st choice could be my 2nd, but because my app came up before yours and my 1st choice was full, then I get my 2nd (assuming it isn't full yet) which was your 1st choice.
What the draw results show is how many people chose what hunt for what choice. It shows the most popular (and most difficult) hunts to draw. It is absolutely impossible to predict what your odds/chances are. All you can do is put in for a good hunt as a 1st choice, then put in for 2nd and 3rd with hunts that don't "fill up" as fast.
Edit: ohio and myself were posting at the same time...
Ohio & HDE how do we know that in fact that is how they do it? I know that is how they say its done but I'm not so sure.
I guess we can only take them at their word but one thing is sure u will never pull a tag on the sidelines. Good luck yall az almost up and nm on deck!
Bc there's really nothing to be gained by lying about it. Always remember water runs downhill and play your draw cards accordingly.
Roughly speaking for elk there were 55k 1st choice Res entries, and overall 20k tags. So theoretically you need to be drawn in the top 40% to have a chance at a tag, now factor in the guys who only seek HD hunts and you should be around the 50% mark give or take. Choose wisely and flip a coin, choose poorly and your coin will be one sided.
Yes, that is what is published so there is nothing else to "speculate" about. The first hurdle to get over is getting a high enough number out of the 190k +/- applications.
IIRC priley, the Department used to contract out the draw with NMSU as an independent party to do it and that's what was stated. Not sure if they do anymore.
I'm not saying NMGF is lying or misleading everyone on how the draw is done.
My question is with the computer program, I'm assuming the draw is computer generated and we all know programs don't always work as intended.
Seems to me there should be a way to verify the out come.
Only thing to go off is what is published in the proc unless someone has an inside track. Then you're dancing a fine line between conflicts of interest and fraud...
They advertise a "true" lottery system. I've heard explanations up to and including an algorithm is used that "likes" certain combinations of the last four of a SS# explaining why some people are way too lucky all the time.
Easy to fall into believing tin foil hat theories when you know people who consistently draw good tags in the same household back to back years when only one tag is or a few tags are available for that hunt.
What I wish they would do is tell you your drawing # on your "successful" or "Unsuccessful" result. I.e. "Successful your application was the 1245th pulled and you drew your second choice." or "Unsuccessful your application was the 65899th application drawn." They could also state when each tag filled. I.e 16d second archery hunt filled after the 267th app was pulled."
I know, as helpful as that would be, it is as likely to happen as me drawing a tag for my favorite unit. :)
Pretty amazing odds HDE, I've heard of a fellow who drew 2 or 3 OIL tags, one was desert big horn in the same year! If there was any merit to "wrong doing" you'd think they would lean in favor of the enforcement or administration, both of which I have not witnessed.
And the kick in the pants is those people's (kids) drew for thw same hunts I put mine in for, then people tell me to choose "easier to draw" hunts...
They used to put your number where you drew back in the day when apps were mailed in and results came in the form of a paper license mailed to you. Wouldn't know until then...
Them youth hunts are no joke, prime hunting for sure but often times better odds to put them in the regular draw.
Except for off-range youth.
I don't know for sure but I believe if we were under a point system of some kind I might get to the Valle Vidal before I'm done.
I would have lots of points right now. lol
A hybrid point system for certain hunts and certain units would be ideal.
As far as Valle Vidal goes, a guy puts in for years and can't draw, then another guy puts in for the first time and draws.
Same with oryx...
The lack of points is one of the great things about New Mexico. The best tags aren't only given to those that have been in the system for years.
I DON'T WANT POINTS! We have the best system period. Points reduce one persons' odds in order to increase those of another. Almost every system out there is broken and game departments scramble to change/tweak them. Extra fees for points, extra fees for point guard, extra fees for mandatory hunting/fishing licenses to apply or lose your points, increased fees for points...the list goes on.
There are WAY more people applying to hunt than the tags available. Points are never going to guarantee a tag in VV. They will only guarantee you WON'T get one for 15 years...or 20...or 25...the creep goes up, never down.
I'm with Carl here ! I've been lucky enough to draw an archery tag four years straight,that with a point system would probably take 10-15 years. I agree there are just some unlucky people . I also believe when a majority of people are applying for 16d,16a,and 34 all first rifle hunts year after year and frustrated for not drawing a tag thats on them!! Learn how the draw system works and learn how do do the math and figure out draw odds to improve your chances of drawing! Point systems are HORRIBLE! Our system is clean slate year after year and EVERYONE has the same chance of getting drawn as the next guy. If people really want tags DO HOME WORK! Better your chances! I'm applying for the three easiest to draw off range oryx hunt just to improve any chance I have at drawing one. New Mexico has the best draw system PERIOD!
Notice I say a 'hybrid' system. It does not exist anywhere else and would not apply to everything and everywhere.
Lot better than some of this OIL crap...
my math skills are pretty good, thats how I know you can't figure draw odds with the numbers supplied by NMGF
Now with point systems of some sort and ten yrs later I'm going to get a elk tag .
Hope to hell it isn't in the gila.
But thats just me
Priley there is no way to get an EXACT odd your correct. Given the information they provide you can absolutely get enough information to apply correctly and improve your odds of getting drawn.
With the exception of the OF'r pool and LO tags, NM is the best system of equal opportunity. Consider yourself fortunate you're a resident.
