Moose wted points
Colorado
Someone on another forum listed the odds of drawing a moose tag at the different weighted point categories. In the CPW regs it mentions that additional weighted points increases an applicants chance to draw moose, sheep, and mtn goat tags. I guess I'll leave it up to you to decide if this is true?
The reason I bring this up is the CPW gives applicants the opportunity to "opt out" of gaining an additional weighted pref pt after the draw by not including $50 (residents) or $100 (nonres). The crazy thing about it is you can still apply for a tag every year with the same chance of drawing a moose tag whether you pay the $50 or $100 pt fee! You might as well save your cash unless the CPW actually changes to a point system where your fee actually improves your chance of drawing a tag! I wonder what happens if more and more hunters apply for moose, mtn goat, and sheep and opt out of whacky weighted pts? You obviously could opt out once you get 3 wted pts for sheep and goat so you are in the running for these tags .
Am I missing something?
2018 CO Resident Moose draw odds via CPW website Weighted Res Res Draw/Apps W Ppts Apps Draw (% odds) 17 608 38 6.25 16 368 10 2.72 15 516 14 2.71 14 474 10 2.11 13 499 12 2.40 12 645 19 2.95 11 538 12 2.23 10 618 10 1.62 9 689 13 1.89 8 697 25 3.59 7 774 20 2.58 6 997 30 3.01 5 1024 27 2.64 4 1164 21 1.80 3 1318 29 2.20 2 1621 25 1.54 1 1984 46 2.32 0 2460 35 1.42
Statistically the weighted points do not really help it all comes down to your random number. You could buy weighted points until your blue in the face and unless your random number is in the ballpark they are of no help. They are not preference points where you could accumulate enough to draw if you live long enough. There is reason for the opt out option.
The other sad reality is, is that if the huge influx of people from last year stay in they will draw a majority of the tags because their sheer numbers have better odds of pulling one of the lower random numbers.
By implementing the 'opt out option', the CPW has recognized that the PPs/WP system is in fact a true lottery.
Or, they can now say "If you dont buy, dont bitch"
The real unknown is the DOW. We've had so many weird changes as of late that make no sense. Who knows where they will go next year with this stuff.
I'm holding tight, buying the points . I fully expect more crazy changes in the next few years.
My guess is a total reset kinda like a few years ago when they screwed all the guys back when it was true preference points and took them back to zero.
I'm somewhat amazed that the CPW offered the "opt out" option. It makes no sense!
Hopefully the CPW realizes that their statement in the regs that weighted pts increases the probability of drawing moose, bighorn, and mtn goat tag for those that "opt in" is totally false! Someone ought to sue the CPW and to recover all the $ lost over the years buying weighted pref pts! If you add up all the applicants over the years that have applied for weighted pts this is a major chunk of change!
I don’t remember a total reset. When did that happen?
The 90s they reset everyone to zero and started this weighted point trash. Of course you can opt out the weighted points are trash and CPW is admitting it with the opt out option.
I dont remember any 'reset'. My history of moose WPs started in 2001, in 1998 I got my first moose PP. Before that it was all random draw.
The most PP/WP people have is 3+17, which aligns with the above
Orion. I believe in the very early 1990, is was a random draw like the current Desert Sheep draw. And then in 1995-6, they switched to the PP and weighted point system 22 years ago. I might be wrong on this but Iam not sure there was a reset other than going from Random to PPs.
I will be opting out of the weighted points for moose and thank God I have killed my sheep and goat. Paul
There was a reset for sheep and goat can't remember the year but they used to be true preference points and once in a lifetime for a ram then they redid with weighted points and you could kill more than one ram
Well, anyone with max Sheep/Goat can log in to their CPW account and look at their history. That will show any re-set.
But I thought i this was a 'moose' thread?
I am out of the moose, sheep and goat race so all you guys can have improved odds, and I can keep my $150. Since I am doing you all a giant favor, I will let you buy me lunch.
take a look at the moose draw stats from last year...for example MF006W1R hunt code...2 tags given out, 1 to someone with 3+1 and 1 to someone with 3+17, and 400 some applications with 3 points + weighted in between....also look at the newcomers in all the hunt codes that entered last year, big jump in participants. The weighted points really don't offer an advantage worth paying for, once you are at 3+0, which somewhere in the results someone scored a moose tag over a lot of other people last year, at 3+0 you're in the running. The only advantage going forward is to youth hunters getting in the possible 3+0 draw pool without having to pay the $50 PP fee. I've been applying since the first year moose was available, I remember it like Paul did above...started out a random draw, went to building up to 3 points for a while, then they added the weighted points to the 3 point max. there were no resets of points. took 15 years to draw my bull tag, then 4 to draw a cow, now back in at 3+2, going to ride that here on out.
I figure I have two years with any hope of drawing a bull moose tag, and then after that when all of the additional Pay Later apps get their 3 pp, I will be out of the running for sure.
Yes if the influx from last year stays in we are all screwed. Realistically buying another weighted point is ridiculous because if your random number is so high to begin with you can have all the weighted points in the world and it won't lower your number enough for a tag
Well see if the pay later crew continue to apply now that they have to spend 50 dollars this year and next year with 0% chance of drawing. I bet a TON drop out. Or at least I hope.
I'm not buying any more weighted points. I'm bad at math...but not that bad.
@huntmaster - better double check your example
Hunt code MF006W1R is a WFR cow moose tag for the Silver Spur Ranch, available for Residents only. The 2 tags that were issued to two applicants that had 3+5 and 3+12. There were only 119 first choice applicants for that hunt code.
I'm gonna keep buyin em, then when I'm an old goat with 30 odd weighted points, I can shuffle up the mountain to kill an old goat. It'll be him or me but my odds will be double!
I haven't calculated moose yet but me and a buddy sat down and counted all the sheep draws. We broke it into two groups three plus zero to three plus seven and then three plus eight to Max. The zero to seven guys drew more tags most likely because there are more of them in the pool so they have a better chance of pulling the low random number. It also showed there is not enough mathematical advantage for gaining weighted points. I'm guessing the same is happening for moose.
Did you take out ewe, nanny, and cow tags?
Yes for sheep I did all tags, doing goat now im just tallying point holders that draw unit by unit
Most ewe tags are drawn by lower point holders.
I'll go back and just do ram tags.
Here is a link to sticksender's goat analysis from a couple of years ago, if anybody missed it.
Just fyi, here is my analysis of the 2018 moose data, averaging all resident bull hunts only without counting youths. When you strip out the cow tags it looks like there is a clear trend to me. If you don't see it, then so be it, I'm tired of arguing about it. If you think weighted points are not worth it, then by all means opt out.
Yep. Go ahead. Dont buy the WP.
The posts by JRABQ should just about end this thread....
Why would you post that JRABQ? Just let the math "experts" opt out.
Sorry about that Ziek, it was moment of weakness.
Just kidding. I've already killed a bull in Colorado and my wife killed a cow last year. But I'm still collecting points. My wife wants another cow to eat when we run out of meat. lol
Never said weighted points don't increase odds. Just that the when weighing the advantage of having more along with my chances at my current point level, the potential long term cost and the odds of ever drawing, it doesn't add up for me. But I'm admittedly sorta cheap when it comes to buying tags.
I'm happy applying with only the weighted points I have and knowing my decision will help the odds of my fellow hunters who are more serious folks who will pay for collecting a bunch more than me.
According to JRABQ's table and error bars there is no significant difference between any of the 5 to 16 pref pt years even though the table shows an upward trend. Even though 5 years may have 2.02% draw odds and 16 pts has 3.4% draw odds there is no significant difference between them. Take a look at the error bars and they are roughly 1 1/2 to 2 years wide!
If you think about it 2% is 2 in 100 draw odds and 4 is 4 in 100 draw odds. Someone mentioned that someone with 4 vs 2% draw odds has twice the chance of drawing a tag. Does a person with 4% draw odds stand a very good chance of drawing a tag in their lifetime...heck no! If a person applies for 100 years their are only 4 out of the 100 years he would draw a tag....horrible odds!
According to the table the error bars are wide and there is no signifant difference between draw odds in years 5 through 16. Years 3 and 4 have SLIGHTLY less draw odds.
It's up to everyone to decide if it's really worth opting in or out. If it were me and I was a nonres it definitely wouldn't be worth it to opt in once I have 3 pts since draw odds are so horrible with the present system.
If you think about it there are more applicants starting off applying for these tags than tags issued so your draw odds are actually decreasing every year! If you apply for sheep, goat, and moose it is $300/year plus other fees to opt in. If a person applies for 30 years x $300 it would cost $9,000 with still horrible odds of drawing a tag in 30 years. The same person could put that $9,000 towards a sheep, goat, or moose Alaska or Canada hunt and be guaranteed a hunt! There is no guarantee the $100/species fee may go up in fugure years.
I really think it is ridiculous that the CPW has opting in and out options. There is no significant increase in draw odds in years 5 to 16 for moose. The weighted pref pt system is a joke!
I`m at 3 plus 12 on moose and say I opt out , but apply every year. Will I keep my current points or would you lose them after a few years like many states do. So just trying to figure if CO will say even if you apply and opt out every year, it would be like not really applying and you would lose your points after a set amount of time.
"The weighted pref pt system is a joke!"
I think it was a good system as it was. Better than most. I think what you're really saying is "Charging for The weighted pref pt system is a joke!" In which I agree.
10 years of not applying and you lose your PPs
cnelk is applying BUT opting out considered not applying?
I think last year’s swinging open of the gates was on purpose.
Seems like there was a plan to get back to 3 points and everyone is in the same bucket scenario. Charging for high fees for points that really don’t do much will drive it back that direction.
In the meantime, they will get lots of fees from the guys that have been stuck in the system for lots of years and haven’t drawn that are scared to death about the massive influx of applicants last year.
The way Colorado’s weighted point system works really still all based on one random number. Just hope for a low one!
No because you still have to pay the $7 application fee - or $9 for NR
You are applying for tags but not pref pts so you won't loose your pts. Colo could always change things up if they feel a bunch of applicants opt out to bypass paying for worthless weighted pref pts.
Nevada is another expensive state to apply as a nonres. In NV applicants loose their bonus pts if they don't apply for 2 consecutive years. I have 16 bonus pts in NV and actually apply every other year due to the expense (over $200+/year to apply for multiple species).
DIY AK moose never looked better!
I agree that everyone should decide if the advantage, however small, is worth the cost. But you may also want to consider any possible future changes; maybe to something that really does give an advantage to BP. If so many opt out that it effects revenue, they may just make it more attractive. I don't know why they just don't stop selling PP/BP. You should have to apply for a hunt to get them. That would address several issues. One thing is for sure; we will see a lot more changes to the application procedure in the future.
Is there a way to figure out what your "random number" is? Does it change with each new application?
Yes your random number is always different as are the tile assignment that reassign your random number when it is reversed. JRABQ you proved my point that there is not a large enough mathematical difference between Max weighted point guys and someone with three plus five. Dirk I ran just the ram tags and the pool with three plus zero to three plus seven is out drawing the three plus eight to Max pool. Way more applicants in the lower pools thus giving them better odds of a low random number
There have been a ton of guys whom have killed the CO big 8. Some as many as 3 times (repeat days are a rear view mirror feat) proving that if you stick with it, your number someday will be called.
The system isn't perfect, but it works. It's been proven over, and over again. Especially if you're a bowhunter. I'm staying the course. See you on the other side.
There is a a huge difference in an individual's chance to draw, and the total number that are successful in a particular "pool".
and also if you apply for a cow moose or a bull moose. In the past, 75% applied for the bull licenses but one had a better chance of drawing a cow license. This may not be true today as more and more of the 75 percent'ers are now applying for a cow tag, as they now realize that, any moose will do.
Go look at the draw results. In 2018, a NonRes got a cow moose tag with their 2nd choice. If you want a moose, go get a cow moose
Glad that I drew and harvested my bull last year.
Man I hope every one on this thread ops out. I agree its a rip off, lets show them!
Dink, I hope everyone agrees with you. Maybe after a few years of all that lost revenue, they will make a change to make them really increase your odds so more will opt in. At that point I'l be ready. ;-)
I'll do my part. The trend has not been changes that help high point holders.
I have a whole bunch of moose and sheep points I'd sell to somebody for half price..
