I have read the applying as a group instructions and it seems pretty straight forward. I am curious if our chances drop quite a bit if we put in as a group, or do they stay about the same? Anything else to think about with this process? Any feedback would be appreciated.
You will have the same chance of drawing as a group with your son as putting in separately. The only issue is if you apply separately one may draw and the other not. I'd put in as a group.
6 points does not put your name in the hat 6 times. You name is the hat before everyone else with less points than you.
cnelk's Link
Colo does not award a group app if there are too few tags left when their number comes up. The whole group fails to draw.
sticksender nailed it well. Basically no or statistically insignificant impact on odds if there are a lot of tags to start with that WILL draw at your group point level and you are a group of 2. If there are 100 tags that will draw at your point level and and 150 applicants that put in at that point level 50 guys will get bounced. In that situation you are pretty safe to not get bounced because your group came up when only 1 tag remained. Could happen but VERY unlikely. I would easily accept those slightly reduced odds versus a solo app.
For me, it boils down to the number of tags, if there are a LOT that will be drawn at our point level, I am fine putting in with a partner knowing the reduction in my odds is small and if I value us both getting a tag or nothing.
Or if I REALLY want to only hunt if that partner has a tag as well then I make the informed choice to accept the tangibly decreased odds of putting a group app into a very small tag pot. Such as If there will only be 20 or less tags drawn in our points pool I start losing enthusiasm for putting in as a group quickly as that number goes down. If there are 10 or so tags to be drawn at our point level I would only put in with my favorite child in a group app and would refuse to put in together with one of their siblings I like less....LOL.
How do the odds compare between: 1) a single (one only) guy putting in 2) 2 guys putting in as a group
Assuming plenty of tags, seems like there would be a slight increase in odds to the two man group vs a single app, since each guy has a bean in the pot and and if either one gets drawn, they both do
Unless their app goes in as a single chance to draw regardless of number of applicants in the group
Glunt is correct TX, group of 2 does not get 2 beans in the pot, just one.
As some others have said it all depends on the number of tags offered. If it's a bunch your odds only take a very small hit. But for small # of tags the odds reduction will be more significant. For example, if there are only 2 tags offered a group of 2 will have their odds reduced 50%, or cut in half. They must have the lowest random number, whereas a single applicant could draw with the first or 2nd lowest random#. For group of 2 the odds reduction will scale as (T-1)/T, where T = #tags.
Learned two new things! Clearly I do not put in as a group very often or I would have known...
1) group members can put in for slightly different first choices, such and one for cow and one for Bull as long as it it the same geographic area, and season and
2) That 'seems to say by putting in a a group you have added chances to draw a low random number? What do y'all think, here is that text: "How Licenses are Awarded Each hunter’s application is submitted separately using one group leader CID. Group applications entering the draw have priority based on the group member with the fewest preference points.
Each individual application is assigned a six-digit number. Groups are assigned a number based on the lowest application number in the group. After the number is randomized, if that number is selected in the draw, and there are enough licenses left for the entire group, everyone in the group gets a license. "
Each individual application is assigned a six-digit number. Groups are assigned a number based on the lowest application number in the group. After the number is randomized, if that number is selected in the draw, and there are enough licenses left for the entire group, everyone in the group gets a license.
If the group includes resident and nonresident applicants and the nonresident cap has been met, the group will not get licenses.
Each individual application is assigned a six-digit number. Groups are assigned a number based on the lowest application number in the group. After the number is randomized, if that number is selected in the draw, and there are enough licenses left for the entire group, everyone in the group gets a license.
If the group includes resident and nonresident applicants and the nonresident cap has been met, the group will not get licenses.
OP's question was answered in the 4th post but we're 16 posts later and people still can't help but to post their "opinions" or arguments on who's right? Isn't that what Facebook is for?
Good luck in the draw Nock! Hope you both get a tag.
I have drawn 3 Bighorn Ram licenses in applying with my dad as a Group. He actually drew a 4th Ram tag between those also as I was on the 5 year penalty after harvesting.
If that is true, then why do they use the lowest number of the group before they "randomize"? What purpose does that serve?
Called a hunt planner and he said for deer and elk drawings, you would have multiple beans in the pot with a group application. You would each go into the drawing individually as a "chance", and if your specific application comes up, it then pulls the other people in the group up for tags (assuming there is enough)
Just for grins I called back and asked the same question to another hunt planner. That person said the opposite: That any group only has one chance to draw!
And we are wondering why we are still confused?? I would sure like to see that question answered clearly in print. I am going to submit the question by email and see what answer I get in writing
But if there are 4 random numbers generated and they use the lowest one, then you essentially have 4 chances to get a low number.
Hello,
All group members share the group leaders converted app number, therefore there would be a single application number and not 4 different application numbers like you would have with individual applications.
Respectfully,
-- Bradley Gabrielski Communication Center Wildlife Coordinator
So we indeed had the correct answer with the 4th reply!
So even though there's only one bean in the actual drawing, each applicant (up to 4) would have a shot at being assigned a lower random number. With more chances at being assigned a lower number, groups would have better odds of being assigned a lower number for the entire group's application.
Of course that advantage may be offset by the possibility of there not being enough tags left for the entire group.
I'm not saying that all 4 members of the group would have a number in the drawing. I'm saying (and so do the regulations) that each member of the group gets a number and then the lowest number is the number that's used in the actual drawing.
What I'm saying does not disagree with you or the cpw answer that txhunter58 posted because there is only one application number or chance. The cpw answer just left out the part about each group member having a chance at being assigned a lower number to be used as the group application number.
If you think about it, it makes sense that each paying applicant should have a chance at affecting their outcome. And by each applicant getting assigned a separate number each applicant has a chance of being assigned the lowest number which will be used for the actual drawing.
So yes, a group application only has one chance in the actual drawing but each applicant has a chance to improve the group's odds prior to the drawing.
But if that's the case, why do they even bother assigning a number to each applicant and why do they select the lowest number and randomize it? What difference would it make which number they randomize if none of them change any odds?