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2021 NY Deer Harvest Predictions

Get your "magic 8-balls" out and make your predictions on the 2021 NY estimated deer take before DEC issues the numbers. Based on the link (see page 4), the 2020 total take was 253,990, the 2019 total take was 224,190 (2020 was 13.3% higher), while the 5 year average (2015-2019) was 214,288. The link also provides detailed breakdowns by hunting implement, WMU, etc. Oddly, the report does not list anywhere the number of licensed hunters or have chart comparing take to hunter numbers. Many posters here predicting gloom and doom from 60,000+ new hunters, DEC mismanagement, lengthy firearms seasons, crossbows, muzzleloaders, EHD, youth seasons, holiday seasons, nuisance/DMAP permits, DMP permits, tag sharing, etc................I'm predicting the total take to be slightly below 2020, buck take down more than doe, small increases in bow, crossbow and muzzleloader harvests, no impact from the holiday season and a sizable drop in take in the few counties significantly affected by EHD. So, what says you - gloom and doom or sunny skies ahead?

2021 - 199,999 total

The DEC will say it’s another record of course

Have no clue and neither does DEC. LOL. From most I've talked too it should be down quite a bit.

Have no clue and neither does DEC. LOL. From most I've talked too it should be down quite a bit.

So you are asking us to guess what the DEC’s guess will be ? My only prediction is that the weather had a significant negative affect on the harvest numbers.

From what I see on our lease take was the same as last year, I predict a harvest of 227,000.

I don't know about doom and gloom but most hunters in my area are seeing less deer this season... 9h area. Any other hunters on this site in 9h, chime in please. scentman

I have zero confidence in the harvest numbers published by the DEC. My neighbors kill multiple bucks every season and none of them call them in. I doubt they’re the exception. I’d be surprised if 30% of the deer kill is reported. Unless DEC has some magical way to determine harvest metrics I would suggest they are fabricated to make themselves look like they are actually managing the herd.

Exactly Pat. That 30% would be the deer that are actually tagged. Not to mention some of our neighbors of a certain sect that wouldn’t report even if they had phones or computers.

I agree , it will be another year of fake harvest stats.

Well there you have it, many ,neighbors take multiple bucks and don't report. How can you make serious predictions when you don't actually have harvest numbers. Not reporting your harvest is a crime. You can blame the DEC all want but we need honest reporting.

Agree Pet, but the DEC doesn’t penalize non reporters. Fine and/or loss of licensing privileges would get some attention, but you’ll never stop those that don’t even tag their kill.

Honesty works both ways. How about honest #s on EHD kill last 2 years. Can't get that can we?

Can stop non-tagging about as well as poaching. Penalties are simply not severe enough, as is the case with our society in general. It’s all a business…follow the dollar.

Muzzy, I agree on stiff penalties, but there is not enough personnel to catch the poachers. Rather than complain about our crooked neighbors maybe we should all drop a dime on them.

I agree. I’ve heard it said by dec that violators don’t have a pot to pee in quite often, so it’s like getting blood from a stone. I just wish we had more respect for the game in general.

JD you said "Honesty works both ways. How about honest #s on EHD kill last 2 years. Can't get that can we?" Dec does not have enough staff to search the woods to record EHD kill. How would you propose they give honest numbers?

Have called on a few occasions. One with someone shooting down a town road. Deer was straddling yellow line when they were shot at. Called and nothing was done. But quick to fine you if you don't fill out tag correctly.

There’s ways to help enforce reporting. For example one state I hunt has mandatory reporting whether you get a deer or not and you can’t buy next year’s license until the report is filed. While some people will lie on the form the vast majority will not and it would be a lot better than what they have now.

Agreed Pat. Also the DEC checks deer at most of the large deer processors. When they check a deer there and no report is filed there is no enforcement. I know most crooks cut their own deer, but you would be surprised how many that use processors and don’t report. That is the way they extrapolate the non reporting numbers, but don’t take enforcement action.

Aint as simple as some of you seem to think. DEC biologists, not officers, perform deer checks as processors to collect biological statistics. DEC does not regulate deer processors. If a deer processor felt that the DEC was snooping for enforcement purposes they could legally tell the DEC to leave and don't come back without a warrant. The biologists find the data useful and would not want to lose this resources, so they do their job and leave. How long do you think a processor would stay in business if customers thought their tags were going to be scrutinized by DEC every time they brought one in? I am sure there are processors that welcome ECOs in to check tags, but that is their choice. Even if a ticket is written, what do you think the outcome is in the local court when the judge, who just got done hunting himself, sees that you got a ticket because you forgot to file a report, or because the system was down that day, or because the person who took you report screwed up. I would venture that a monetary fine for failing to tag is extremely rare. And really, is failing to report a big deal in comparison to shooting from a roadway, over limit, trespassing, out of season, etc.? I too would like to see 100% reporting requirement like Idaho but in a state like NY it would be a monumental project that might just not be worth the cost. There is a science to "guesstimating" things like deer populations that includes many variables that includes the rather poor deer harvest reporting. Their numbers claim to be within a few percentage points plus or minus. Whether you believe the numbers are accurate or not, as long as they use the same method each year then the trends, up or down, should be reliable.

I believe the Dec has things fairly well honed down in their estimating. Deer take every year seems to be consistent in the 200,000 to 250,000 thousand range. I am sure this includes survey of processors, reporting by hunters and check point stats. Lack of deer reports I believe are due to the change in the ways we hunt. Back in the mid 70's when I was a kid I would walk for most of the day and see over 20 to 25 deer. Now close to 70 my days of walking are done I sit and don't see many. But I still enjoy being out there.

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